金融工程 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 06 日 研究结论 风格表现监控 本周市场正收益风格集中在 Trend 风格上，负收益风格表现在 Liquidity 风格上。非 流动性冲击是中证全指成分股中，本周表现最好的因子。 因子表现监控 公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 风险提示 量化模型失效风险、 市场极端环境冲击。 杨怡玲 yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 | 分红对期指的影响 20250403 | 2025-04-05 | | --- | --- | | 14 只科创综指相关基金产品获批，全球首 | 2025-03-30 | | 支代币化货币市场 ETF 面世 | | | 公募费率再改革，又一家外资公募宣布增 | 2025-03-22 | | 资 | | | DFQ-FactorVAE-pro：加入特征选择与环 | 2025-02-19 | | 境变量模块的 FactorVAE 模型：——因子 | | | 选股系列之一一一 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][10][7] Core Views - The company is expected to see earnings per share of 1.20, 1.76, and 2.21 yuan for 2024-2026, with a target price of 47.52 yuan based on a 27x PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 [4][10] - The report highlights the company's ongoing expansion in the optical connection business, with significant growth in product offerings and international capacity [9][10] - The manufacturing business is accelerating its high-end transformation, focusing on sectors like new energy vehicles and semiconductor industries [9] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 10,208 million yuan in 2023 to 19,516 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.8% [6] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 1,108 million yuan in 2023 to 2,486 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 26.1% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 1,007 million yuan in 2023 to 2,227 million yuan in 2026, indicating a CAGR of 26.2% [6] Business Developments - The company showcased its latest products at the OFC exhibition, including advancements in optical modules and high-speed solutions [9] - The optical connection business is integrating various products and achieving significant testing milestones with major clients [9] - The manufacturing sector is enhancing its capabilities in response to the growing demand in the AI and semiconductor markets [9]

盈利预测与投资建议 维持稳健高分红比例，或有事项影响落地 核心观点 公司主要财务信息 | 风险提示 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | （此处简单列示风险，正文需单独对风险提示详细展开描述） 14,815 | 14,645 | 15,057 | 15,428 | 15,737 | | 同比增长 (%) | 5.5% | -1.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 3,353 | 3,185 | 3,346 | 3,531 | 3,699 | | 同比增长 (%) | 1.6% | -5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 1,337 | 1,115 | 1,352 | 1,427 | 1,497 | | 同比增长 (%) | 5.8% | -16.6% | 21.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | | 每股收益（元） | 2.76 | 2 ...

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 分红对期指的影响 20250403 研究结论 | IH2504 | 2664.40 | 0.00 | 2.15 | 2.15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2505 | 2662.60 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.69 | | IH2506 | 2658.00 | 17.98 | -4.25 | 13.73 | | IH2509 | 2625.40 | 60.33 | -36.85 | 23.48 | 沪深 300 股指期货: | | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际价差 | 含分红价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2504 | 2664.40 | 0.00 | 2.15 | 2.15 | | IH2505 | 2662.60 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.69 | | IH2506 | 2658.00 | 17.98 | -4.25 | 13.73 | | IH2509 | 2625.40 | 60.33 | -36.85 | 23.48 | | 沪深 300 股指期货: | | ...

2025 年 3 月小品种月报 研究结论 风险提示 固定收益 | 专题报告 继续做波段，把握利率下行机会 政策变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期；ABS 发行及投资热度不及预期；数据统计可能 存在遗误 | | | | 二季度债市或可乐观一点：固定收益市场 | 2025-03-31 | | --- | --- | | 周观察 | | | 央行多投放流动性了吗？：固定收益市场 | 2025-03-25 | | 周观察 | | | 从金融数据看近期流动性格局：固定收益 | 2025-03-17 | | 市场周观察 | | | 3-4 月债市利率向下的季节性规律能否重 | 2025-03-10 | | 现：固定收益市场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 企业永续债：一级市场方面，3 月发行企业永续债 107 只，合计融资 1114 亿元，相 较上月增加约 56%；同时偿还规模增至 1360 亿元，环比提升 169%，最终出现净融 出 246 亿元，为本年来首次净融出。3 月发行量位居前三的行业为城 ...

稳健经营维持高分红，新项目布局有望打 开成长空间 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 0.43、0.46、0.52 元（调整前为 0.50/0.52 元）。由于下游需求疲软，我们下调了 25、26 年收入预测。参考可比公司估值，给 予公司 2025 年 27 倍市盈率，对应目标价 11.61 元。 风险提示 极端天气影响游客流量；新项目建设进度不及预期；酒店业务持续承压。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 799 | 808 | 863 | 915 | 972 | | 同比增长 (%) | 152.4% | 1.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 319 | 300 | 326 | 351 | 390 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2517.0% | -5.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 11.2% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) ...

郑煤机 601717.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 24 年业绩稳健增长，红利价值凸显 ——郑煤机 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到煤炭行业景气度短期承压，我们小幅下调公司收入增速；24 年公司利润率较高的煤机产 品占比提升，我们预期 25 年或逐渐回归正常均值水平，我们小幅下调 25 年毛利率预期；企业 具有优秀的费用控制和成本管控能力，我们下调期间费用率。而随着行业需求修复和规模效应 提升，我们认为板块 26-27 年盈利将继续提升。我们预测公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别 39.34、43.63、48.65 亿元，每股收益分别为 2.20、2.44、2.73 元（原预测 2025-2026 年每股 收益分别为 2.20、2.48 元），参考可比公司估值，给予公司 25 年 10.6 倍 PE ，对应目标价约 为 23.32 元，维持买入评级。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 36,396 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.75 CNY based on a 21x PE valuation for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown stable performance, with a slight decline in revenue for 2024 but a projected recovery in the following years. The revenue is expected to grow from 8.498 billion CNY in 2024 to 10.248 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.4% [4][9]. - The company is focusing on product innovation and has a robust pipeline with 98 products under development, including two classic traditional Chinese medicine formulations that are in the production application stage [9]. - The acquisition by China Resources Sanjiu is anticipated to enhance the company's competitive edge through improved management and marketing resources [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 8.674 billion CNY, with a slight decrease to 8.498 billion CNY in 2024, followed by an increase to 9.069 billion CNY in 2025 [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to recover from 956 million CNY in 2024 to 1.423 billion CNY by 2027, with a significant growth rate of 17.6% in 2025 [4]. - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable around 66.5% to 66.7% from 2025 to 2027, indicating consistent profitability [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.75 CNY based on a 21x PE valuation for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown stable performance, with a slight decline in revenue in 2024 but a projected recovery in the following years. The revenue for 2024 is expected to be 8.498 billion CNY, down 2.0% year-on-year, while the net profit is projected at 956 million CNY, a decrease of 10.8% [9]. - The company is focusing on product innovation and has a robust pipeline with 98 products under development, including two classic traditional Chinese medicine formulations that are in the production application stage [9]. - The acquisition by China Resources Sanjiu is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge through improved management and marketing resources [9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 8.674 billion CNY - 2024: 8.498 billion CNY - 2025: 9.069 billion CNY (6.7% growth) - 2026: 9.723 billion CNY (7.2% growth) - 2027: 10.248 billion CNY (5.4% growth) [4][11] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 1.071 billion CNY - 2024: 0.956 billion CNY - 2025: 1.124 billion CNY (17.6% growth) - 2026: 1.325 billion CNY (17.9% growth) - 2027: 1.423 billion CNY (7.4% growth) [4][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 0.72 CNY - 2024: 0.64 CNY - 2025: 0.75 CNY - 2026: 0.89 CNY - 2027: 0.95 CNY [4][11] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 66.8% in 2023, projected to be around 66.5% in 2025 - Net Margin: 12.3% in 2023, expected to improve to 12.4% in 2025 - Return on Equity (ROE): 8.6% in 2023, projected to be 9.1% in 2025 [4][11].

核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据股权激励考核方案，上调 25、26 年收入；根据 24 年年报，对 25-26 年下调毛 利率，上调费用率。我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 2.66、3.21、3.64 元（原预测 25-26 年为 3.31、3.80 元）。结合可比公司，我们认为目前公司的合理 估值水平为 2025 年的 23 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 61.18 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：消费需求不及预期、夜郎古业绩增速不及预期、市场竞争加剧风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 7,087 | 5,357 | 6,457 | 7,253 | 7,995 | | 同比增长 (%) | 17.0% | -24.4% | 20.5% | 12.3% | 10.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2,302 | 568 | 1,189 | 1,457 | 1,655 | | 同比增长 (%) | 3.0% | ...