Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The niche DRAM supply-demand structure is being reshaped, with ongoing market prosperity driven by AI and domestic substitution opportunities [2][19] - The DDR4 series has shown a continuous upward trend in prices, with significant increases reported in June 2025 [7][8] - The supply gap for DDR4 and LPDDR4 persists, benefiting Tier 2 manufacturers significantly [12][18] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Beijing Junzheng, Fudan Microelectronics, and others due to the reshaping of the niche storage market and AI-driven growth opportunities [2][19] Market Trends - As of June 27, 2025, DDR4 product prices have increased significantly, with some specifications seeing price hikes of over 60% compared to the end of May [7][8] - The third quarter is expected to see further increases in DDR4 contract prices, with potential rises of 15% or more [10] Supply Chain Dynamics - Major suppliers like Micron are confirming production halts, which may exacerbate shortages in LPDDR4, leading to potential price increases [10][12] - Chinese mainland niche DRAM manufacturers are rapidly growing due to strong supply chain capabilities, with Zhaoyi Innovation and Beijing Junzheng ranking sixth and seventh globally in the niche DRAM market [18]

Group 1: Market Trends - The current market is expected to continue its upward trend despite the anticipated increase in risk events[6] - Global market risk assessments have been declining since April, contributing to market strength, with major indices approaching previous highs[10] - The market's recent performance is driven by a shift in Trump's policies, prioritizing Wall Street interests over long-term reforms[11] Group 2: Risk Factors - There is an increasing concern about several concentrated risk events, including the "Big Beautiful Act" and tariff negotiations, which could impact market liquidity[15] - The potential economic consequences of tariffs are beginning to manifest, leading to weaker economic growth and inflation concerns[19] - The probability and impact of these risks may be overestimated, suggesting that current pricing may already reflect these expectations[27] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Q1 GDP growth rate was revised down to -0.5%, indicating economic contraction driven by weak consumer spending and net exports[36] - Unemployment claims have risen to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021, signaling a weakening job market[37] - Inflation risks may be overstated, and if proven false, market confidence in potential Fed rate cuts could strengthen[25] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The market's momentum relies on declining risk-free rates, decreasing risk assessments, and rising risk appetite[27] - Non-U.S. assets are expected to perform better in a weak dollar environment, with significant relative performance advantages over U.S. markets[27] - The current environment is favorable for non-U.S. markets, with equity risk premiums (ERP) in major non-U.S. markets significantly higher than in the U.S.[28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 44.25 HKD, based on a valuation of 453.5 billion RMB using the FCFF method [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The company is expanding into the Hong Kong soft drink market, with a faster-than-expected progress in local channel development, which is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [1][8]. - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.29, 1.50, and 1.68 RMB respectively, reflecting a downward revision in revenue expectations but an upward adjustment in gross margin [2][9]. - The company aims to leverage its strong product and brand positioning to gradually increase its market share in Hong Kong, which is projected to enhance its internationalization efforts [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 42,667.22 million RMB, 42,895.99 million RMB, 51,095.56 million RMB, 59,457.43 million RMB, and 66,556.46 million RMB, with growth rates of 28.36%, 0.54%, 19.11%, 16.37%, and 11.94% respectively [3][15]. - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 12,079.50 million RMB in 2023A to 18,858.36 million RMB in 2027E, with corresponding growth rates of 42.19%, 0.36%, 19.65%, 16.49%, and 11.60% [3][15]. - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 59.55% in 2023A to 60.11% in 2027E, while the net margin remains stable around 28% [3][15]. Market Position and Strategy - The company holds approximately 12% market share in the Chinese ready-to-drink soft drink market and aims to enhance this position through its entry into the Hong Kong market [8]. - The partnership with Jianhua Group, a well-established local distributor, is expected to facilitate better access to retail channels in Hong Kong, with products set to be available in over 3,500 sales points [8].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The expectation of improved national governance effectiveness is driving an increase in risk appetite among investors[4] - Despite anticipated GDP growth pressure, the market has already priced in the "high-low" trend and inflation concerns, suggesting that macro policy efficiency and international comparisons are undervalued[4] - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to enhance the sense of gain for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and workers, potentially leading to a decrease in risk assessments[5] Group 2: Policy Implications - Recent policies, such as the "Guarantee for Payment to SMEs" regulation, aim to shorten payment terms, which may improve profitability quality for SMEs[6] - The focus of policies is shifting towards more elastic service consumption, reflecting a change in consumer demand from essential goods to optional services as income rises[7] - Local governments are expanding service consumption capabilities, indicating a policy shift towards enhancing consumer protection and infrastructure development[7] Group 3: Global Context - Global geopolitical instability, including fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, is leading investors to recognize the stability of China's national governance[9] - The certainty of China's governance is becoming a driving force for foreign investment, as it contrasts with the uncertainties in Western economies[9] - The market has already factored in pressures on GDP growth and inflation, but the certainty of governance and efforts to improve economic structure remain undervalued, presenting a fundamental reason to invest in China[10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 23.75 CNY [2][5]. Core Views - The company is focusing on continuous brand development and sees overseas markets as a significant growth driver. Despite challenges such as increased tariffs on electric vehicles in the EU, the company has maintained a leading position in the European market with its MG brand [1][9]. - The company's overall sales have shown a consistent upward trend, achieving a year-on-year increase for six consecutive months. In June, the wholesale sales reached 365,300 units, a 21.6% increase year-on-year [9]. - The company is experiencing positive results from its reforms, with steady growth in its domestic brand sales and a successful partnership with Huawei, which is expected to enhance product capabilities [9]. Financial Information Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 638.11 billion CNY, 687.196 billion CNY, and 742.172 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 3.9%, 7.7%, and 8.0% [4][10]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rebound significantly from 1.666 billion CNY in 2024 to 11.003 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth of 560.3% [4][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be 0.95 CNY in 2025, increasing to 1.03 CNY in 2026 and 1.15 CNY in 2027 [2][4]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is expected to improve from 9.4% in 2024 to 11.1% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to stabilize around 1.7% [4][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 16.8 in 2025, decreasing to 13.9 by 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [4][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - After the cross - quarter period, the spread compression market of credit bonds will continue. Seasonal decline in interest rates, stable capital, and the risk - taking preference of asset management products are the main reasons. The short - term market for medium - and long - term credit bonds will continue, and the term spread will further compress [5][8]. - The allocation value of industrial bonds can be concerned. The market may chase high - yield subjects, and the follow - up sinking motivation may strengthen. The sectors with thick spreads such as construction local state - owned enterprises, coal state - owned enterprises, etc., are expected to be further explored [5][10]. - There is a callback risk due to the "scar effect" of previous adjustments. For ultra - long - term credit bonds, a small - scale participation is advisable. The rapidly expanding credit bond ETF helps compress the liquidity premium [5][13]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has started a new round of market, and the bullish sentiment has driven up the market risk preference. The underlying logic of the convertible bond market remains unchanged, and the long - term allocation logic is still valid. When the convertible bond valuation reaches an absolute high and the equity market has a small upward trend, it may be a good window period. Convertible bonds can be appropriately added to the position [5][14]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Credit Bonds and Convertible Bonds Views: Spread Compression Market May Continue - The spread compression market of credit bonds will continue after the cross - quarter. The market's risk - taking preference for extending the duration to obtain capital gains may increase, and the term spread of medium - and long - term credit bonds will further compress [5][8]. - The allocation value of industrial bonds is worthy of attention. The market may continue to chase high - yield subjects, and sectors with thick spreads may be further explored [5][10]. - There is a potential callback risk for credit bonds, and ultra - long - term credit bonds can be participated in with a small position. The convertible bond market's basic logic remains unchanged, and it can be appropriately added to the position when the equity market is strong [5][13][14]. 2. Credit Bond Review: The Market Continues to Chase Absolute Coupon Income 2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, there were no bond defaults or overdue events. However, there were several cases of corporate rating downgrades and negative events, such as the rating downgrades of Montz New Urbanization Development Investment Co., Ltd. and some overseas companies like Longfor Group [17][18]. 2.2 Primary Issuance: Issuance Volume Declined, and the Financing Cost of Medium - and High - Grade Bonds Slightly Decreased - The primary issuance volume of credit bonds decreased to 300 billion yuan, with the maturity scale remaining flat and the net financing slightly negative. Six credit bonds were cancelled or postponed, with a total scale of 4 billion yuan. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA + grade bonds decreased by 1bp and 4bp respectively [19][21]. 2.3 Secondary Trading: Medium - and Low - Valued, Medium - and Long - Term Bonds Outperformed - Except for AAA - grade bonds, the valuations of credit bonds generally declined, and the spreads of medium - and low - grade credit bonds significantly narrowed. The term spread of each grade mainly narrowed, and the 3Y - 5Y part continued to outperform. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most provinces widened by about 2bp, while industrial bonds fluctuated slightly and outperformed urban investment bonds. The liquidity of credit bonds weakened slightly, with the turnover rate dropping by 0.06pct to 2.25% [25][29][34]. 3. Convertible Bond Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Significantly, and the Right - Side Window Opened 3.1 Market Overall Performance: The Stock Market Continued to Rise, and Convertible Bonds Followed Strongly - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, major stock indices rose. The leading convertible bonds outperformed their underlying stocks, and some convertible bonds were actively traded [39]. 3.2 Convertible Bonds Followed Strongly, Seize the Right - Side Opportunity - This week, convertible bonds rose significantly, but the average daily trading volume decreased to 7.5907 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.08%, the parity center rose 3.7% to 98.0 yuan, and the conversion premium center fell 2.8% to 25.9%. Medium - and low - rated, small - cap, and high - priced convertible bonds performed well [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 42.09 CNY based on a projected PE ratio of 23 times for 2026 [2][5][11]. Core Views - The Canadian government's ban on Hikvision's operations is expected to have a limited impact, as the Canadian market accounts for less than 0.3% of the company's revenue. The company continues to focus on global operations and aims to provide services to Canadian clients despite the ban [1][10]. - The company reported a 10.1% year-on-year growth in overseas revenue for 2024, reaching 31.895 billion CNY, which constitutes 34.5% of total revenue. This indicates a strong momentum in international markets [10]. - The company is committed to its globalization strategy, implementing localized management across various regions to enhance competitiveness and drive growth [10]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 1.57 CNY, 1.83 CNY, and 2.12 CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [2][11]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 89.341 billion CNY in 2023 to 130.399 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [4][14]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from 16.040 billion CNY in 2023 to 23.268 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable recovery in profit margins after a dip in 2024 [4][14]. Key Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable around 44% from 2025 to 2027, indicating effective cost management [4][14]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 12.9% in 2024 to 15.0% in 2027, showcasing enhanced profitability [4][14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to rise from 15.3% in 2024 to 18.4% in 2027, reflecting better utilization of equity capital [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating a relative strength compared to the market benchmark index [4]. Core Insights - The leading companies in the cleaning and small home appliance sector are undergoing governance optimization, which is expected to improve operations. The overall demand for home appliances is anticipated to rise due to favorable policies and a vibrant new consumption landscape [2][7]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the cleaning and small appliance segments, with significant year-on-year increases in online retail sales for key products such as robotic vacuums and washing machines [7]. - The report suggests that the upcoming air conditioning season may benefit from higher temperatures and lower inventory levels, leading to increased demand for home appliances [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends focusing on companies like Stone Technology (688169, Buy) and Bear Electric (002959, Hold) due to their positive changes and internal governance improvements. It also suggests monitoring major white goods leaders like Midea Group (000333, Not Rated) and Haier Smart Home (600690, Buy) for their efficiency and policy benefits [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that are actively expanding overseas and improving their operational efficiency, such as Hisense Electric (000921, Not Rated) and Hisense Visual (600060, Hold) [2]. - It also points out the potential for kitchen appliance companies like Boss Electric (002508, Buy) and Vatti (002035, Not Rated) to adapt to the easing of real estate pressures and adjust their strategies for overseas markets [2]. Market Trends - The report notes that the demand for cleaning appliances and small home appliances has been robust, with significant growth rates in online sales for key categories. For instance, sales of robotic vacuums increased by 45.93%, washing machines by 41.66%, and health pots by 28.66% year-on-year [7]. - The report anticipates that the growth momentum in these segments will continue, driven by sustained government subsidies and increasing consumer acceptance of these products [7]. Company-Specific Developments - Stone Technology is undergoing a strategic shift with a new management team, which is expected to enhance its operational and governance capabilities. The company plans to issue H-shares in Hong Kong, reflecting a commitment to global expansion [7]. - Bear Electric is also adjusting its management structure to improve strategic alignment and operational efficiency, which may lead to better profit margins in the short term [7].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 7 月流动性或仍宽松 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 利率债市场周观察 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 债市"抢跑"行情或将延续：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | --- | --- | | 场周观察 | | | 超长信用债行情能持续多久：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | 场周观察 | | | 临近季末关注机构行为冲击：固定收益市 | 2025-06-16 | | 场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The appointment of Zhang Yujin as the chairman of AVIC Engine Group indicates a potential return to high growth for the engine sector, with a broad market outlook [3][7] - The core technologies in the aviation engine industry are maturing, and the pressure on profitability from high investment in model development is expected to ease [7] - The maintenance, commercial aviation, and gas turbine sectors are opening up broader development opportunities for the aviation engine segment [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The aviation engine industry has made significant progress over the past five years, achieving independence from imported engines for military applications and actively participating in the development of domestic commercial engines [7] Market Dynamics - The demand for weaponry and equipment is expected to expand due to ongoing international tensions, which will benefit the military trade market [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific segments within the aviation engine industry, including maintenance, commercial aviation, and gas turbines, as they present substantial growth potential [3][7] - Listed companies under AVIC Group include AVIC Power (600893), AVIC Control (000738), AVIC Technology (600391), and AVIC Materials (688563) [7]