恢复投资拿地，多元经营稳健 ——金地集团（600383.SH）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报。 1）2024 年，公司实现营业收入 753.4 亿元，同比下降 23.22%（其中房地产开 发 600.3 亿元，同比下降 29.8%）；归母净利润亏损 61.2 亿元。 2025 年 5 月 3 日 2）2025 年一季度，公司实现营业收入 59.7 亿元，同比下降 14.32%；归母净 利润亏损 6.58 亿元。 点评：跨越公开债务高峰，恢复投资拿地；短期销售压力仍存，多元经营稳健。 公司研究 跨越公开债务高峰，恢复投资拿地：1）2024 年公司坚持以现金流为核心的经 营策略，坚守财务安全底线，按时足额偿付共约 200 亿元公开市场到期债务； 截至 2024 年底有息负债余额 735 亿元，其中 96.30%为银行借款，债务融资加 权平均成本为 4.05%，较上一年度下降 31 个 BP；扣除合同负债后的资产负债 率为 59.7%，较上年降低 1.6 个百分点，净负债率为 49.1%。2）恢复投资拿地， 2025 年一季度，公司重启土地投资 ...

2025 年 5 月 3 日 非农暂时稳定，缓和市场衰退担忧 ——2025 年 4 月美国非农数据点评 要点 事件： 2025 年 5 月 2 日，美国劳工部公布 2025 年 4 月非农数据：新增非农就业 17.7 万人，预期 13.0 万人，前值由 22.8 万人修正至 18.5 万人；4 月失业率 4.2%， 预期 4.2%，前值 4.2%；平均时薪同比升 3.8%，预期升 3.9%，前值升 3.8%。 核心观点： 2025 年 4 月美国新增就业回落，但高于市场预期。从结构看，关税扰动下零售 业、休闲酒店业就业转弱，显示美国经济承压，但 4 月运输和仓储行业新增就业 大幅回升，部分对冲了关税对就业数据的影响，或因美国厂商在对等关税生效前 赶工而大量招聘人员，持续性存疑。结合本次非农数据的结构与被下修的前值， 美国就业市场压力依然存在。 尽管美国经济承压，但高于预期的非农数据减弱了市场对美国经济衰退的担忧， 美联储或保持更多耐心。从就业数据看，尽管后续就业数据或有转弱风险，但就 4 月数据本身而言，失业率未有抬升，以及新增就业 17.7 万人的读数并不差， 短期内美联储或继续保持观望，尚在等待经济转弱的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) with a current price of 5.42 CNY [1]. Core Insights - Agricultural Bank of China reported a revenue of 186.7 billion CNY for Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 71.9 billion CNY, reflecting a 2.2% increase year-on-year [4][5]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) was 1.34%, showing a decline of 8 basis points compared to 2024, but the rate of decline has narrowed [9]. - Non-interest income grew by 11.1% year-on-year, contributing to 25% of total revenue, indicating a positive trend in non-interest revenue streams [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue and net profit growth rates were 0.4% and 2.2% respectively, with a year-on-year decline in the annualized return on average equity (ROAE) to 10.82% [4][5]. - The bank's net interest income decreased by 2.7%, while non-interest income increased by 11.1% compared to the previous year [5]. Loan and Deposit Growth - As of Q1 2025, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 6.3% and 9.8% year-on-year, respectively [6]. - The bank's loan growth was driven by high demand in key sectors, with significant increases in loans to strategic emerging industries and rural areas [7]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 1.28%, the lowest in history, with a total NPL balance of 334.6 billion CNY [11]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio was 297.8%, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [11]. Capital Adequacy and Valuation - The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 11.2%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous year [11]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.83, 0.85, and 0.87 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.68, 0.63, and 0.59 [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced pressure on performance in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year decline in profitability [4] - Q1 2025 revenue was 2.942 billion yuan, down 8.25% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 36 million yuan, down 81.03% year-on-year [4] - The company plans to accelerate its opening of new hotels, with a target of 1,300 new openings in 2025 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue from domestic hotel operations was 2.116 billion yuan, down 6.37% year-on-year [5] - The full-service hotel segment generated revenue of 59 million yuan, up 31.39% year-on-year, while the RevPAR was 192.19 yuan, down 8.30% year-on-year [5] - The limited-service hotel segment generated revenue of 2.057 billion yuan, down 7.14% year-on-year, with a RevPAR of 137.53 yuan, down 5.31% year-on-year [5] Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin in Q1 2025 was 31.85%, down 3.52 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The operating profit margin for Q1 2025 was 1.2%, down 4.70 percentage points year-on-year [6] Expansion Plans - In Q1 2025, the company opened 226 new hotels, with a net increase of 97 hotels [7] - The company has a total of 13,513 hotels in operation as of the end of Q1 2025 [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 has been adjusted to 1.040 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.4% from previous estimates [7] - The expected EPS for 2025 is 0.97 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25, 20, and 17 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]

2025 年 5 月 3 日 分析师：陈奇凡 执业证书编号：S0930523050002 021-52523819 chenqf@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 26.84 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 145.18 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 4.60/8.12 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 40.63% | 公司研究 25Q1 利润环比改善，盈利水平触底回升 ——旗滨集团（601636.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：5.41 元 作者 分析师：孙伟风 执业证书编号：S0930516110003 021-52523822 sunwf@ebscn.com 股价相对走势 -34% -20% -7% 7% 21% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 旗滨集团 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -3.31 | -3.43 | -32.46 | | 绝对 | -6.24 | -4.08 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (9987.HK) [1] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of $2.981 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1% (or 2% excluding foreign currency translation effects) [6] - Adjusted net profit reached $292 million, up 2% year-on-year (or 3% excluding foreign currency translation effects) [6] - Core operating profit margin improved to 13.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Same-store sales remained flat year-on-year, with a continued increase in transaction volume but a decrease in average ticket price [6] - The company opened a net of 247 new stores in Q1 2025, with a total of 16,642 restaurants at the end of the quarter [7] - The restaurant profit margin improved to 18.6%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower food and packaging costs [8] Revenue Performance - Revenue for 2025 is projected to grow at a rate of 4.6% to $11.821 billion, with net profit expected to reach $957 million [12] - The company plans to add 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a target of over 20,000 stores by 2026 [7] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts EPS of $2.56, $2.77, and $2.96 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17x, 16x, and 15x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10]

2025 年 5 月 3 日 公司研究 业绩具备韧性，产能外延增长可期 ——山西焦煤（000983.SZ）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件： 2025 年 4 月 28 日，公司发布了 2024 年度报告及 2025 年一季报。2024 年，公司营业收入 452.9 亿元，同比-18.4%，归母净利润 31.1 亿元，同比-54.1%， 扣非净利润 30.2 亿元，同比-55.8%；2025Q1 公司营业收入 90.3 亿元（同比 -14.5%、环比-26.0%），归母净利润 6.8 亿元（同比-28.3%、环比+159.8%）， 扣非净利润 7.3 亿元（同比-19.1%、环比+186.8%）。 风险提示：钢材需求大幅回落；焦煤进口超预期增长。 公司盈利预测与估值简表 | 指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 55,523 | 45,290 | 43,759 | 43,909 | 44,059 | | 营业收入增长率 | -14.82% ...

公司研究 FY2Q25 业绩略超预期，需持续关注关税进展 ——苹果（AAPL.O）FY2Q25 业绩跟踪 买入(维持) 当前价：213.32 美元 作者 2025 年 5 月 2 日 分析师：付天姿 CFA，FRM 执业证书编号：S0930517040002 021-52523692 futz@ebscn.com 分析师：黄铮 执业证书编号：S0930524070009 021-52523825 huangzheng1@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 150.22 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿美元)： | 32,045.09 | | 一年最低/最高 | 169.2-260.1 | | (美元)： | | | 近 3 月换手率： | 39.1 | 股价相对走势 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -5.9 | 0.3 | 12.1 | | 绝对 | -4.4 | -9.5 | 23.9 | 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 FY1Q25 营收&利润创单季新高, 期待 4 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has faced operational pressure over the past 24 years, but there has been an improvement in profit per ton in Q1 2025 compared to the previous quarter [1][11] - The company’s total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 21.5 billion and 770 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9% and 35% [5][11] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, while net profit decreased by 33% [5][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company’s steel structure business generated revenue of 20.8 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 4.33 million tons, up 2% [6] - The average price per ton was 4,803 yuan, a decrease of 10% year-on-year due to falling steel prices [6] - The gross profit margin for the steel structure business was 17.1 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year, with a gross profit per ton of 394 yuan, down 18% [6] Operational Performance - The company signed new orders worth 28.3 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, with a production volume of 4.51 million tons [6] - The production and sales rate was 96.1%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [6] Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company produced 1.05 million tons, with a sales volume of approximately 1 million tons [10] - The gross profit per ton was 475 yuan, down 57% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in steel prices [10] - The company reported a significant reduction in R&D expenses, indicating a potential peak in the intensity of its smart transformation efforts [10] Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 1.03 billion yuan and 1.15 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 21% and 30% [11] - The report anticipates improvements in profitability as the company’s smart transformation progresses [11] Market Position - The company’s stock price has experienced a significant correction, and the improvement in ton profit in Q1 2025 supports the "Buy" rating [11]

2025 年 5 月 2 日 公司研究 亚马逊 25Q2 业绩指引不及预期，AWS 营收增速放缓 ——亚马逊（AMZN.O）2025 年一季报业绩点评 要点 事件：美国东部时间 5 月 1 日盘后，亚马逊发布 25Q1 业绩公告。截至北京 时间 5 月 2 日 8:00，亚马逊盘后股价下跌 2.34%。 25Q2 净销售额和营业利润率指引不及预期。25Q1 亚马逊净销售额 1556.7 亿 美元，同比增长 8.6%，高于 Refinitiv 一致预期（下文简称一致预期）0.4%； 营业利润 184.05 亿美元，同比增长 20.2%；营业利润率 11.8%，同比增长 1.1pcts，净利润 171.3 亿美元，同比增长 64.2%，高于一致预期 11.5%。25Q2 净销售额指引 1590-1640 亿美元（中位数低于一致预期 1.2%），同比增长 6%-10%；营业利润指引 130-175 亿美元（中位数低于一致预期 26.5%）。 AWS 营收增速放缓，营业利润率回升。25Q1 亚马逊 AWS 收入 292.7 亿美元 （低于一致预期 0.5%），同比增长 16.9%（24Q4 同比增速 18.9%），A ...