2025 年 5 月 28 日 行业研究 新一轮环保督察启动，友道化学爆炸，持续关注农药和颜料板块 ——石化化工交运行业日报第 69 期（20250527） 要点 第三轮第四批中央生态环境保护督察全面启动。根据人民网新闻，5 月 26 日，根据《生态环境保护督察工作条例》，经党中央、国务院批准，第三轮 第四批中央生态环境保护督察全面启动。组建 8 个中央生态环境保护督察组 （以下简称督察组），分别对山西、内蒙古、山东、陕西、宁夏 5 省（区） 开展督察，统筹开展黄河流域督察和省域督察，同时对中国华能集团有限公 司、中国大唐集团有限公司、国家电力投资集团有限公司 3 家中央企业开展 督察，进驻时间约 1 个月。这是《生态环境保护督察工作条例》发布实施后 的第一批督察。此外，近年来宁夏等地已有多个项目因环保等因素关停。 农药行业产能格局持续优化，友道化学发生爆炸，氯虫苯甲酰胺供应受到影 响。农药方面，近年来我国扎实推进农药行业的减量增效，部分环保不达标 的中小企业陆续退出市场。当前农药原药价格已至底部，渠道库存拐点有望 到来，未来随着环保政策的逐渐趋严，农药行业产能格局将进一步优化。此 外，5 月 27 日 11 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company is benefiting from a significant increase in demand for AI cluster networking, with projected revenues of CNY 8.647 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 179.15%, and a net profit of CNY 2.838 billion, up 312.26% [1]. - The company has successfully launched industry-leading products, including the latest 800G/1.6T optical modules, and is enhancing its global presence through partnerships with major communication equipment manufacturers and internet companies [2]. - The company's profitability is improving due to refined management practices, achieving a gross margin of 44.72% in 2024 and a net margin of 32.82% [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the company have been significantly raised, with expected net profits of CNY 6.721 billion in 2025 and CNY 8.883 billion in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 136.84% and 32.17% respectively [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to reach CNY 9.48 in 2025 and CNY 12.53 in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing to 12X and 9X in the same years [5][12]. Profitability and Efficiency - The company has achieved a gross margin of 44.72% in 2024 and 48.66% in Q1 2025, indicating a continuous improvement in operational efficiency [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 45.63% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability and effective capital management [12]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leader in the high-end optical module market, with its advanced products expected to drive substantial revenue growth in the coming years [4]. - The ongoing development of high-speed optical modules is anticipated to contribute significantly to the company's performance, supported by its strategic partnerships and technological advancements [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the petrochemical and chemical transportation sectors [5] Core Views - The third round of the fourth batch of central ecological environment protection inspections has been fully launched, which may impact the chemical industry [1] - The pesticide industry is undergoing capacity optimization due to stricter environmental regulations, with a potential price increase for chlorantraniliprole following an explosion at a major production facility [2] - The organic pigment industry is consolidating, with a positive outlook for high-performance organic pigments as domestic alternatives gain traction [3] - Investment recommendations include focusing on undervalued, high-dividend companies in the "three barrels of oil" and oil service sectors, as well as materials companies benefiting from domestic substitution trends [4] Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Product Market Review - The report highlights the current pricing trends for various petrochemical products, including Brent crude oil at $65 per barrel and WTI crude oil at $62 per barrel, with a notable decline in prices compared to previous months [9] - The report also provides detailed pricing for basic chemicals, fertilizers, and pesticides, indicating fluctuations in market prices [16][17] 2. Pesticide Industry Insights - The pesticide industry is seeing a reduction in capacity as non-compliant small enterprises exit the market, leading to a potential recovery in raw material prices [2] - The explosion at Youdao Chemical is expected to impact the supply of chlorantraniliprole, which may lead to price increases [2] 3. Organic Pigment Industry Analysis - The organic pigment sector is experiencing ongoing consolidation, with a shift towards high-performance organic pigments due to stricter environmental regulations and market saturation of traditional pigments [3] - The report suggests that companies with advanced production technologies will benefit from this trend [3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the oil and gas sector, materials benefiting from domestic substitution, and those in the fertilizer and pesticide sectors due to favorable monetary and fiscal policies [4]

2025 年 5 月 28 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 重点交流 【房地产】地产持仓低配明显，持续关注优质标的——光大地产板块及重点公司跟踪 报告(增持) 展望 2025 年，部分高能级城市逐步实现"止跌回稳"，地产行业基本面企稳，板块 关注度较低，持仓低配明显，优质标的迎来"阿尔法"机遇：1）供给侧出清龙头地 产凸显，推荐中国金茂、上海临港、华润置地、中国海外发展、招商蛇口、保利发展 等，建议关注新城控股。2）看好物业服务长期发展空间，推荐招商积余、华润万象 生活、万物云、保利物业、中海物业、绿城服务等。 总量研究 【宏观】中游制造业支撑利润增长——2025 年 4 月工业企业盈利数据点评 4 月工业企业利润延续向好，一是，利润率改善带动工业企业利润持续回升；二是， 结构上，中游制造业利润加快增长，而上游及下游制造业利润同比增速走低，与出口 需求回落有关；三是，私营企业利润明显改善、国有企业利润同比增速回落。展望来 看，我国出口韧性仍存，国内制造业转型升级加速，叠加"两新""两重"政策激发 内需潜力，有望推动工业企业效益持续向好。 贝壳是国内最大的房产交易及服务平台，有望受益于地产修复，其他三翼业务 ...

自有+授权打造中国领先的IP玩具公司 ——乐自天成（H02155.HK）招股说明书解读 2025年5月27日 作者：姜浩 执业证书编号S0930522010001 梁丹辉 执业证书编号S0930524070007 证券研究报告 核心观点 乐自天成：国内领先的 玩具公司 公司秉持"IP中枢"战略，持续开发和推出多品类IP玩具，包括静态/可动玩偶、发条玩具、变形机甲、拼装玩 具、毛绒玩具及衍生周边等等。截至2024年底，公司旗下拥有超过100个自有及授权IP。公司覆盖IP孵化和开发、 产品设计及供应链和销售渠道各个环节，按2024年GMV计，公司在中国多品类IP玩具公司中排名第二。 中国IP玩具市场较为分散，具有较大潜力 灼识咨询数据显示，2024年中国IP玩具市场规模达到756亿元，2020-2024年CAGR为11.7%，预计将在2024- 2029年间以17.2%的复合增速增长。同时，2024年中国人均IP玩具支出仅为53.6元/年，远低于日本的244.7元/ 年与美国的387.0元/年，后续仍有较大提升空间。按2024年GMV计算，公司2024年总GMV为9.3亿元，在中国IP 玩具市场中，公司在本土IP ...

2025 年 5 月 27 日 总量研究 中游制造业支撑利润增长 ——2025 年 4 月工业企业盈利数据点评 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 工业企业盈利恢复向好——2025年3月工业 企业盈利数据点评（2025-04-27） 关注工业企业利润修复的持续性——2025 年 1-2 月工业企业盈利数据点评 （2025-03-27） 工业企业利润同比增速为何转正？——2024 年 12 月工业企业盈利数据点评 （2025-01-27） 工业企业盈利增速将继续改善——2024 年 11 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2024-12-27） 工业企业盈利或迎来曙光——2024 年 10 月 工业企业盈利数据点评（2024-11-27） 工业企业利润增速预计何时转正？——2024 年9月工业企业盈利数据点评（2024-10-27） 工业企业利润增速为何转负？——2024 年 8 月工业企业盈利数据 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, poised to benefit from real estate recovery, with its three wings of business gradually forming a second growth curve [3][11]. - The company has launched a strategic shift from traditional real estate transactions to comprehensive living services, encapsulated in its "One Body, Three Wings" strategy [1][36]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, originally founded as Beijing Lianjia in 2001, has evolved into the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, with a significant focus on digital transformation and integration of services [1][20]. - The company has a unique dual-class share structure, with core management holding nearly half of the voting rights, ensuring strategic control [28][29]. Real Estate Brokerage Business - The brokerage business benefits from a strong online and offline integration, with 50,000 active stores and 445,000 active agents by the end of 2024 [1]. - The company has developed a robust mechanism to address issues like fake listings and price discrepancies through its "Building Dictionary" and ACN network, enhancing transaction efficiency [1][10]. Home Decoration and Furnishing Business - The home decoration market is projected to reach approximately 3.9 trillion yuan in 2024, with the company leveraging its brokerage business to drive traffic and enhance service delivery through digitalization [2][10]. - Following the acquisition of Saintu Decoration, the company is in a phase of scaling its operations through a combination of vertical management and internet platform models [2][10]. Rental and Residential Development - The rental business, centered around the "Worry-Free Rental" model, aims for sustainable profitability by improving property turnover rates and reducing vacancy periods [2][10]. - The "Beihome" initiative is being piloted in major cities, with plans for expansion in 2025 [2][10]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is expected to see a net profit of 5.77 billion, 6.69 billion, and 7.44 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28, 24, and 22 [3][11]. - The report highlights the stability of the brokerage business and the high growth potential of the home decoration and rental segments as key drivers for future profitability [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming 2025 ASCO conference highlights the impressive presence of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies, with over 70 research projects selected, indicating a robust growth in domestic drug development [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the structural selection of investment opportunities based on payment willingness and ability, focusing on three payment channels: hospital payments, out-of-pocket payments, and overseas payments [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 1.78%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.96 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 2.83 percentage points, ranking first among 31 sub-industries [1][16]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Medical Health Index increased by 5.54%, surpassing the Hang Seng National Enterprises Index by 4.18 percentage points [1][16]. Company Research Progress - Recent developments include the IND application for HS-10510 by Haosen Pharmaceutical and ongoing clinical trials for several drugs from companies like Hengrui Medicine and BeiGene [35]. Key Company Highlights - Hengrui Medicine has 69 research projects selected for the ASCO conference, covering various cancer types, showcasing its leadership in innovative drug development [23][26]. - Innovent Biologics will present clinical data for IBI363 and IBI343 at ASCO, indicating its strong pipeline in cancer immunotherapy [27][28]. - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical has over 20 clinical progress reports accepted for presentation at ASCO, focusing on ADC therapies for various cancers [30][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Hengrui Medicine, Mindray Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, and Yuyue Medical, based on their strong market positions and growth potential [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming 2025 ASCO conference highlights the impressive presence of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies, with over 70 research projects selected, indicating a robust growth in domestic drug development [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the increasing competitiveness of domestic drugs in the global market, particularly in oncology, as several innovative drugs are making significant progress [2][23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 1.78%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.96 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 2.83 percentage points, ranking first among 31 sub-industries [1][16]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 5.54%, surpassing the Hang Seng Index by 4.18 percentage points [1][16]. Company Research Progress - Recent developments include the IND application for HS-10510 by Haosen Pharmaceutical and ongoing clinical trials for several drugs by companies such as Hengrui Medicine and BeiGene [35]. Key Company Highlights - Hengrui Medicine has 69 research projects selected for the ASCO conference, covering various cancer types, showcasing its leadership in innovative drug development [23][26]. - Innovent Biologics will present clinical data for IBI363 and IBI343 at ASCO, indicating its strong pipeline in oncology [27][28]. - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical has over 20 clinical progress reports accepted for presentation at ASCO, focusing on various cancer treatments [30][31]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a structural selection of investment opportunities based on payment willingness and ability, focusing on three main areas: hospital payment support, expansion of consumer demand, and overseas market opportunities [3]. Key recommendations include Hengrui Medicine, Mindray Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, and Yuyue Medical [3].

Group 1: TMT Industry Insights - The report highlights that with the improvement of L3 level regulations by 2025, L2+ and above intelligent driving technologies are expected to accelerate penetration, benefiting third-party SoC manufacturers [1] - The trend of "chip embedding" is anticipated to bring high growth certainty to the industry, with recommendations for leading global and domestic SoC companies such as Nvidia and Horizon Robotics [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market Analysis - In the first four months, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities reached 56.67 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with an average transaction floor price of 7,738 yuan per square meter, up 20.2% year-on-year [2] - The 30 core cities saw a total residential land transaction area of 27.74 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with an average transaction floor price of 13,318 yuan per square meter, up 28.5% year-on-year [2] - The overall premium rate for residential land transactions in the 30 core cities was 17.2%, an increase of 11 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a rise in market activity [2] Group 3: Internet Media Company Overview - The report covers Multi-Point Intelligence, a SaaS company focusing on the digital transformation of local retailers, which possesses significant industry experience and data barriers [3] - Revenue growth projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 16.7%, 17.2%, and 16.4% year-on-year, with corresponding PS valuation multiples of 3.4x, 2.9x, and 2.5x [3] - The forecasted Non-IFRS net profits for the company are 122 million, 271 million, and 408 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 [3] Group 4: Software and Robotics Sector - The report discusses the launch of the Kaihong Bot series by China Software International, emphasizing the ongoing development of the open-source Hongmeng ecosystem [4] - The net profit forecasts for China Software International from 2025 to 2027 are 640 million, 750 million, and 870 million yuan, respectively [4] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Company Insights - The report indicates that the company Lao Bai Xing is focusing on optimizing store layouts and expanding its franchise business while integrating a digital system [6] - The projected net profits for Lao Bai Xing from 2025 to 2027 are 702 million, 841 million, and 955 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35%, 20%, and 14% [6] Group 6: Travel Industry Performance - Tongcheng Travel reported a revenue of 4.377 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, with an adjusted net profit of 788 million yuan, up 41.1% year-on-year [7] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Tongcheng Travel for 2025 to 2027 are 3.393 billion, 4.060 billion, and 4.647 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 11, and 10 times [7]