Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 increased by 10.2% year-on-year, while GAAP net profit decreased by 47.3% [1] - The decline in profit is attributed to increased costs from platform investments and uncertainties in overseas tariffs [4] - The company is focusing on enhancing platform competitiveness and supporting merchants through various initiatives [3] Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue reached 956.72 billion yuan, with a GAAP net profit of 147.42 billion yuan [1] - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 57.2%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to overseas expansion and increased promotional spending [2] - Online marketing service revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, while commission revenue increased by 6% [3] Cost Structure - Sales expense ratio increased by 7.9 percentage points to 34.9% in Q1 2025, driven by higher promotional expenditures [2] - Management expense ratio decreased slightly to 1.7%, reflecting improved overall efficiency [2] Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for GAAP net profit has been revised down by 34%/37%/41% for 2025/2026/2027 to 910.06/1002.16/1082.33 billion yuan [4] - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 437.71 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11% [5] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a P/E ratio of 11 for 2025 and a P/B ratio of 2.4 [5][13] - The expected EPS for 2025 is 16.03 yuan [5]

Market Overview - In May, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Wind All A Index rising by 2.2% while the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 3.9%[8] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a rebound, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 5.7% and 1.9% respectively as of May 27, 2025[10] A-share Strategy - A-shares are expected to trend upwards due to ongoing policy support and inflows of medium to long-term capital, with current valuations near the average since 2010[13] - Three asset categories are recommended for investment: - Stable assets such as high-dividend stocks and gold, which provide certainty in uncertain markets[16] - Self-sufficient industrial chains, focusing on domestic alternatives due to the dual circulation strategy[16] - Domestic consumption, which is expected to remain resilient amid uncertain overseas policies[17] Hong Kong Stock Strategy - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to continue its upward trend, supported by low valuations in the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index[18] - A "barbell" investment strategy is suggested, focusing on: - Self-sufficient sectors like chips and high-end manufacturing amid US-China tensions[18] - Internet technology companies with independent growth prospects[18] - High-dividend, low-volatility sectors such as telecommunications and utilities[18] Recommended Stocks - June 2025 A-share stock picks include: - ZG股份, 格力电器, 海尔智家, 中国石油, 中国海油, 中国石化, 紫金矿业, 招商积余, 鸿路钢构, 濮耐股份[22] - June 2025 Hong Kong stock picks include: - 网易-S, 腾讯控股, 香港交易所, 地平线机器人-W[25] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation, significant deterioration in US-China relations, and unforeseen risk events[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector, specifically for the "Big Three" oil companies and oil service companies [5]. Core Viewpoints - The long-term outlook for oil prices remains optimistic due to improving supply-demand dynamics and ongoing geopolitical risks that provide price support [1]. - The "Big Three" oil companies in China are expected to increase their oil and gas equivalent production by 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% respectively by 2025, with significant growth in natural gas production [2]. - The downstream sector is accelerating its transformation towards new materials and clean energy, with major companies investing in high-value products and energy supply networks [3]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the oil and gas sector, as well as materials companies benefiting from domestic substitution trends [4]. Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Sector - Oil prices are supported by geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in U.S. shale oil production, with the IEA projecting increases in U.S. crude supply of 440,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 180,000 barrels per day in 2026 [1]. - The "Big Three" oil companies are responding to national calls for increased reserves and production, with specific growth targets set for oil and gas equivalent production [2]. Downstream Transformation - Companies are enhancing their refining and sales operations, transitioning to comprehensive energy suppliers, and investing in electric vehicle infrastructure [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the "Big Three" oil companies, oil service firms, and companies in the materials sector that are poised to benefit from domestic substitution trends [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [6] Core Views - Xiaomi Group achieved a record high quarterly revenue of 111.3 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.4% and a Non-IFRS net profit of 10.7 billion RMB, up 64.5% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 9.6% [1][5] Summary by Sections Smartphone Business - In Q1 2025, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments reached 41.8 million units globally, a 3% year-on-year increase, with a market share of 18.8% in China, up 4.7 percentage points year-on-year, marking a return to the top position in the domestic market [2] - The average selling price (ASP) of Xiaomi smartphones increased to 1211 RMB, reflecting a 5.8% year-on-year and 0.7% quarter-on-quarter growth, driven by government subsidies and a higher proportion of high-ASP domestic shipments [2] - The gross margin for the smartphone business improved to 12.4%, up from 12.0% in Q4 2024, primarily due to an improved product mix in overseas markets [2] IoT and Internet Services - IoT revenue reached 32.3 billion RMB in Q1 2025, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 59%, driven by a 113.8% increase in smart home appliance revenue [3] - Internet services revenue grew by 13% year-on-year to 9.1 billion RMB, with advertising revenue increasing by 20%, contributing to the overall growth of the internet business [3] Automotive and AI Innovations - The newly integrated "Smart Electric Vehicles and AI Innovations" business generated 18.6 billion RMB in revenue in Q1 2025, with a gross margin of 23.2% [4] - The delivery volume of Xiaomi's vehicles increased to 75,869 units, an 8.9% quarter-on-quarter rise, with the ASP of vehicles rising to 238,000 RMB [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report raises the Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 46.4 billion RMB and 65.6 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 84.9 billion RMB [5] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 492.9 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 34.7% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector, specifically for the "Big Three" oil companies and oil service sector [5]. Core Viewpoints - The long-term outlook for oil prices remains optimistic due to improving supply-demand dynamics and ongoing geopolitical risks that provide price support [1]. - The "Big Three" oil companies in China are expected to increase their oil and gas equivalent production by 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% respectively by 2025, with significant growth in natural gas production [2]. - The downstream sector is accelerating its transformation towards new materials and clean energy, with major companies investing in high-value products and energy supply networks [3]. - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the oil and gas sector, as well as those benefiting from domestic substitution trends in materials [4]. Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Sector - Oil prices are supported by geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in U.S. shale oil production, with IEA projecting increases in U.S. crude supply of 440,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 180,000 barrels per day in 2026 [1]. - The "Big Three" oil companies are responding to national calls for increased reserves and production, with specific growth targets set for oil and gas equivalent production [2]. Downstream Transformation - Companies are enhancing their refining and sales operations, transitioning to comprehensive energy suppliers, and investing in electric vehicle infrastructure [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the "Big Three" oil companies, oil service firms, and companies in the materials sector that are poised to benefit from domestic substitution trends [4].

公司研究 2025 年 5 月 29 日 智能手机出货份额重回国内第一，单季营收&经调整净利润再创新高 ——小米集团（1810.HK）2025 年一季度业绩点评 要点 事件：公司发布 1Q25 业绩，实现收入 1113 亿元，同比增长 47.4%，创下 单季度历史新高并连续两个季度营收超千亿元；Non-IFRS 净利润达 107 亿 元，同比增长 64.5%，净利率提升至 9.6%，盈利能力显著改善。 1Q25 小米手机出货连续 19 个季度稳居全球前三，国内市场高端机出货占比 提升至 25%。1)出货量方面， 1Q25 小米手机全球出货同比增长 3%至 4180 万台，其中中国市场表现亮眼，1Q25 小米在中国大陆出货市占率 18.8%， 同比提升 4.7pct、时隔十年重回第一，中国出货同比增速 40%，远超行业增 速（1Q25 中国智能手机市场出货 yoy+5%）2)ASP 方面， 1Q25 小米手机 ASP 提升至 1211 元，yoy+5.8%/qoq+0.7%，主要受益于国补+高 ASP 的国 内出货占比提升。3)毛利率方面，1Q25 手机业务毛利率 12.4%，较 4Q24 的 12.0%环比提 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The total amount of special bond acquisition plans for stock land announced by various regions exceeds 350 billion yuan, but the actual issued special bond scale is low at only 56.1 billion yuan, indicating that the issuance pace needs further tracking [2] - Land "storage" is concentrated in regions with better economic and debt conditions, with issued land storage special bonds primarily from "self-audit" pilot areas [2] - Third and fourth-tier cities, facing significant destocking pressure, show higher enthusiasm for "storage" [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The report maintains a positive outlook on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing "three barrels of oil" and oil service sectors, recommending companies such as China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and others [3] - There is a continued focus on domestic substitution trends benefiting material companies, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, with recommendations for companies like Jingrui Electric Materials and Tongcheng New Materials [3] - The report highlights optimism for the pesticide, fertilizer, and private refining sectors, suggesting attention to companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [3] - The vitamin and methionine sectors are also viewed positively, with recommendations for companies such as Andis and Zhejiang Medicine [3] Group 3: Company Research - The report on the company New Yisheng indicates that it is a leading high-end optical module company, with potential high performance growth driven by 800G/1.6T high-speed optical modules, raising profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 6.721 billion, 8.883 billion, and 10.659 billion yuan respectively, with current PE ratios of 12X/9X/7X [4] - Longji Technology is positioned in high-growth areas, with an optimized business structure, and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 2.155 billion, 2.504 billion, and 3.044 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [5]

分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 2025 年 5 月 28 日 总量研究 专项债"收储"进展几何？ ——《见微知著》第二十三篇 作者 相关研报 我国哪些产品可以无惧关税压力？——《见 微知著》第二十二篇（2025-05-15） 今年以来"以旧换新"政策效果如何？—— 《见微知著》第二十一篇（2025-05-12） 从上市公司三季报看政策刺激效果——《见 微知著》系列第二十篇（2024-11-16） 政策组合拳出击，有效激活财富效应——《见 微知著》系列第十九篇（2024-11-01） 从中报数据看当前经济的微观结构——《见 微知著》系列第十八篇（2024-09-05） 为何高能级城市消费走弱？——《见微知著》 系列第十七篇（2024-08-14） 如何理解房地产"一揽子"优化方案？—— 《见微知著》系列第十六篇（2024-05-18） 财报数据显示当前经济的微观感受如何？ ——《见微知著》系列第十五 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is continuously optimizing its business structure by focusing on high-growth areas such as automotive electronics, high-performance computing, storage, and 5G communications, with revenue contributions from various segments projected for 2024: 44.8% from communication electronics, 24.1% from consumer electronics, 16.2% from computing electronics, 7.9% from automotive electronics, and 7.0% from industrial and medical electronics [1][2] - The computing electronics segment is identified as a significant growth driver, with a projected revenue increase of 38.1% year-on-year in 2024, supported by the acquisition of an 80% stake in Shengdi Semiconductor, enhancing market share in the storage and computing electronics sector [2] - The automotive electronics business is also expanding, with a revenue growth forecast of 20.5% year-on-year in 2024, significantly outpacing industry averages, and the company is advancing the construction of its automotive electronics packaging and testing production base in Shanghai, expected to commence operations in the second half of 2025 [2] - The company is diversifying into smart terminal RF, power, and energy sectors, developing advanced packaging technologies to support 5G, WiFi RF modules, and APU integration applications, while also advancing third-generation semiconductor power devices and modules [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 29.66 billion yuan in 2023 to 49.99 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.94% from 2024 to 2026 [4][9] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1.47 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.04 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery and growth trajectory [4][9] - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards to 2.16 billion yuan and 2.50 billion yuan respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 3.04 billion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Viewpoints - The company is continuously optimizing its business structure by focusing on high-performance packaging technology and high-value applications, accelerating its strategic layout in automotive electronics, high-performance computing, storage, and 5G communication [1][2] - The revenue distribution for 2024 is projected as follows: Communication Electronics (44.8%), Consumer Electronics (24.1%), Computing Electronics (16.2%), Automotive Electronics (7.9%), and Industrial & Medical Electronics (7.0%), with all markets except industrial showing double-digit year-on-year growth [1] - The computing electronics segment is a significant growth driver, with a projected revenue increase of 38.1% year-on-year in 2024, supported by the acquisition of 80% of Shengdi Semiconductor, enhancing market share in the storage and computing electronics sector [2] - The automotive electronics sector is also expanding, with a revenue growth of 20.5% year-on-year in 2024, significantly above the industry average, and the company is progressing on a new production base in Shanghai expected to commence operations in the second half of 2025 [2] - The company is diversifying into smart terminal RF, power, and energy sectors, developing advanced packaging technologies to support 5G, WiFi RF modules, and AIGC computing energy solutions [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 29.66 billion in 2023 to 49.99 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.94% from 2024 to 2025 [4][9] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1.47 billion in 2023 to 3.04 billion in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 33.90% in 2025 [4][9] - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards to 2.16 billion and 2.50 billion respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 3.04 billion [3][4]