[Table_Reportdate] 2026年01月26日 1 标配 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn 联系人 方逸洋 fyy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.台积电CapEX超预期，2025 年智能手机出货实现韧性增长 ——电子行业周报2026/1/12- 2025/1/18 1. 台积电CapEX超预期，2025年智 能手机出货实现韧性增长——电子 行业周报（20260112-20260118） 2. 英伟达Rubin平台正式发布，台 积电2025全年营收创新高——电子 行业周报（20260105-20260111） 3. 英伟达获Groq推理技术授权，中 芯国际对部分产能实施涨价——电 子行业周报（20251222- 20251228） [Table_NewTitle] 2026年全球AI服务器出货同比有望增超 28%，AI相关芯片涨价持续 ➢ 电子板块观点： ...

Key Recommendations - The report highlights a positive outlook for the chemical industry, suggesting a longer cycle based on historical profit recovery, with an average ROE of 10.14% expected between 2024 and 2026, compared to peaks of 16.32% in 2007 and 17.6% in 2021 [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in the consumer sector, particularly in the food and beverage industry, driven by a recovery in demand and the emergence of new retail formats [13] Economic Indicators - In December 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,136 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, which was below the market expectation of 1.5% [10] - The CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, while the PPI showed a smaller decline of 1.9%, indicating a narrowing gap between PPI and CPI [12] Market Performance - The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,136 points, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices also recorded gains [21] - The report notes that 94% of sectors in the market closed in the green, with significant gains in sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, which rose by 10.07% [23] Sector Analysis - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a recovery phase, supported by the clearing of outdated facilities in Europe and Japan, and a slowdown in new projects domestically [6] - The retail sector is experiencing a shift towards online consumption, with online retail sales growing by 8.6% year-on-year, while physical retail is adapting to new business models [10][11] Policy Developments - The report mentions the release of the "Jiuquan Commercial Aerospace Industry Development Plan," which aims to establish a national commercial aerospace launch base, indicating a strategic push in the aerospace sector [14] - The national market operation and consumption promotion meeting emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumption in 2026, marking it as a critical year for economic recovery [17][18]

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a historical profit recovery reference, indicating a positive outlook for a longer chemical cycle, driven by various factors including raw material price fluctuations, macroeconomic demand, supply cycles, and technological advancements [8][9]. Global Asset Review - During the week of January 23, global stock markets, except for A-shares, generally declined, while major commodity futures such as crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum saw price increases. The dollar index fell, leading to appreciation of the Renminbi, Yen, and Euro [11][12]. - The performance ranking of equity markets was led by the Sci-Tech 50, followed by the Shenzhen Component Index and others, with significant movements in various sectors [11][12]. Domestic Equity Market Review - As of January 23, the domestic equity market showed a preference for cyclical stocks over growth, consumption, and finance, with an average daily trading volume of 27,750 billion Yuan. Among the 31 sectors, 24 experienced gains, with construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, and steel leading the increases [18][19]. Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Tracking - The report notes that short-term interest rates are expected to stabilize following the end of the tax period, with a significant amount of medium to long-term deposits maturing in the first half of the year. The central bank's supportive stance is anticipated to mitigate liquidity pressures [9][20]. - The report highlights that the long-term bond yields are expected to remain under pressure due to concerns over supply and macroeconomic recovery, while short-term rates may see slight increases [21][22]. Commodity Tracking - Crude oil prices increased to $61.07 per barrel, with U.S. crude production rising to 13.732 million barrels per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 255,000 barrels per day [29]. - Gold prices reached a new high of $4,981.31 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and market expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [45][46]. Industry and Themes - The report suggests a favorable outlook for the chemical sector, driven by historical profit recovery trends and the anticipated upward cycle due to reduced capacity in Europe and Japan, along with a slowdown in new domestic projects [8][9]. - The application of AI in the industry is also highlighted as a potential growth area, alongside recommendations for investment in the chemical and non-ferrous sectors for 2026 [8].

Group 1: Global Market Overview - Global stock markets generally declined in the week ending January 23, 2026, except for A-shares, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Index performing well[2] - Major commodity futures, including crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum, saw price increases, while the US dollar index fell, leading to appreciation of the RMB, JPY, and EUR[2] - The average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 27,750 billion RMB, down from 34,283 billion RMB[2] Group 2: Domestic Equity Market Insights - As of January 23, 2026, 24 out of 31 sectors in the Shenwan industry index rose, with the top gainers being construction materials (+9.23%), oil and petrochemicals (+7.71%), and steel (+7.31%)[2] - The banking sector experienced a decline of -2.70%, while telecommunications and non-bank financials fell by -2.12% and -1.45%, respectively[2] Group 3: Chemical Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to enter a longer positive cycle, with historical average ROE for basic chemicals projected at 10.14% from 2006 to 2024, and peaks of 16.32% in 2007 and 17.6% in 2021[8] - Factors supporting this outlook include the clearing of outdated facilities in Europe and Japan, a slowdown in new domestic projects, and a gradual global economic recovery[8] Group 4: Interest Rates and Currency Trends - Short-term funding rates are expected to stabilize post-tax period, with the central bank's supportive stance likely to mitigate the impact of maturing deposits on liquidity[9] - The 1Y government bond yield rose by 3.95 basis points to 1.2819%, while the 10Y yield fell by 1.26 basis points to 1.8298%[2] Group 5: Commodity Price Tracking - As of January 23, 2026, WTI crude oil prices rose to $61.07 per barrel, a 2.7% increase from the previous week[29] - Gold prices reached a new high of $4,981.31 per ounce, reflecting an 8.31% increase week-on-week[45]

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that Jinchuang Group (603680) expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 540 million to 620 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 78.77% to 105.25% [5] - The company anticipates a non-recurring net profit of 560 million to 640 million yuan for 2025, indicating a growth of 72.72% to 97.39% year-on-year [5] - The demand for rail transit vehicles is expected to rise due to large-scale tenders for the Fuxing high-speed trains, with the company benefiting from increased delivery volumes and improved product structure leading to higher overall gross margins [5][6] Group 2: Industry Insights - The mechanical equipment industry is projected to see growth in both domestic and international forklift sales, with total sales for 2025 expected to reach 1.4518 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [9] - Domestic forklift sales are expected to grow by 12.6% in 2025, driven by a recovery in demand linked to the manufacturing and logistics sectors [10] - The report notes that the overall forklift market is showing stable growth, with expectations for this trend to continue into 2026 [10] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook for Jinchuang Group, projecting net profits of 551 million, 587 million, and 665 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.70, 0.75, and 0.85 yuan, and PE ratios of 23X, 21X, and 19X respectively, recommending a "buy" rating [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological barriers and a comprehensive product range for the company to strengthen its position in the rail transit vehicle supply market [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price relative to the market index [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 540 million to 620 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 78.77% to 105.25% [6]. - The demand for rail transit vehicles is anticipated to rise due to large-scale tenders for the Fuxing high-speed trains, with significant procurement planned by the China State Railway Group [6]. - The company has established a comprehensive service capability from design and development to manufacturing and maintenance, covering over a thousand subcategories of rail transit vehicle components [6]. - The railway transportation capacity is set to upgrade, with plans for new railway lines and high-speed rail expansions, which will drive the market for vehicle components [6]. - The company is actively involved in the research and production of new models, enhancing product innovation and maintenance demand as vehicles age [6]. - The company has invested in emerging industries through its subsidiary, indicating a strategic expansion into new markets [6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 4,499.39 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 21.69%, and is expected to increase to 5,462 million yuan in 2025 [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 302.07 million yuan in 2024, growing to 550.58 million yuan in 2025, reflecting an 82.27% increase [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.39 yuan in 2024 to 0.70 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.56 [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights the acquisition and integration trends in the testing industry, with a focus on advancements in robotics research [5][6] - SGS Group announced the acquisition of Panacea Infosec to enhance its capabilities in payment security and information security, aiming to generate an additional CHF 200 million in revenue by 2027 [5] - Lianjian Technology plans to acquire a 55% stake in Zhongding Testing for CNY 101 million, which will help expand its international market presence [6] Group 2 - The report discusses the performance of Lihua Co., Ltd. (300761), noting a recovery in yellow chicken prices in Q4, leading to improved profitability [11] - The company expects a net profit of CNY 5.5-6 billion for 2025, a decline of 60.55%-63.84% year-on-year, with Q4 net profit projected at CNY 2.63-3.13 billion [11][12] - The sales volume of meat chickens reached 567 million in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, while the average sales price decreased by 11.9% [11] Group 3 - The report indicates that the railway transportation capacity is set to upgrade, with plans to launch new lines in 2026, aiming for a passenger volume of 4.402 billion and freight volume of 4.13 billion tons [7] - The company Jinchuang Group expects a net profit of CNY 540-620 million for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 78.77%-105.25% [7] Group 4 - The CES 2026 review highlights the diversification of AI hardware and robotics, with a focus on vertical applications rather than general-purpose products [8] - Investment recommendations include tracking the commercialization progress of robotics in various sectors and focusing on high-barrier core components [8] Group 5 - The report notes that the price of yellow chicken is expected to rebound in 2026, potentially releasing profit elasticity for the company [13] - The company anticipates a net profit of CNY 5.75 billion in 2025, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at CNY 12.02 billion and CNY 13.03 billion, respectively [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the price of yellow chickens has rebounded in Q4, leading to an improvement in profitability on a quarter-on-quarter basis [2][5]. - The company is a leading player in the yellow feathered chicken breeding industry, with a target annual growth rate of 8-10% for yellow feathered chicken output [5]. - The report anticipates a rebound in pig and chicken prices in 2026, which is expected to release profit elasticity for the company [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.5-6 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 60.55%-63.84% [5]. - In Q4, the company sold 567 million meat chickens, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, with an average selling price of 11.40 yuan/kg, down 11.9% year-on-year [5]. - The company sold 211.16 million live pigs in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 62.7%, with an average selling price of 13.85 yuan/kg, down approximately 19.94% year-on-year [5]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report indicates that the company has maintained cost advantages through refined management across various segments, leading to improved profitability in the yellow chicken segment starting from August [5]. - The report projects that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 5.75 billion yuan in 2025, 12.02 billion yuan in 2026, and 13.03 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.69 yuan, 1.44 yuan, and 1.56 yuan respectively [5][6]. Market Outlook - The report notes a decrease in the breeding stock of yellow feathered chickens, which is expected to support price stability in 2026 [5]. - The report also mentions that the pig price is expected to rise due to a reduction in industry capacity, which could enhance profitability for the company [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating that it is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by at least 10% over the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry is experiencing significant developments, particularly in the detection services and rail transit equipment sectors, with strategic acquisitions and expansions being highlighted [3][12]. - The CES 2026 showcased a diverse range of AI hardware and robotics, emphasizing the importance of vertical applications and the collaborative growth of the ecosystem [14][27]. - Investment opportunities are identified in three main areas: commercialization progress of whole machine enterprises, high-barrier core incremental components, and platform manufacturing companies with global response capabilities [27]. Summary by Sections Detection Services - SGS Group announced the acquisition of Panacea Infosec to enhance its capabilities in payment security and information assurance, aiming for an additional revenue of at least 200 million Swiss francs by 2027 [9]. - Lianjian Technology plans to acquire a 55% stake in Zhongding Testing for 101 million yuan, strengthening its position in the consumer goods and food testing sector [10]. - Guangdian Measurement has received approval for a stock issuance to raise up to 1.3 billion yuan for various projects, including testing platforms for aerospace and AI chips [11]. Rail Transit Equipment - The national railway is set to upgrade its transport capacity with new lines scheduled for production in 2026, aiming for a passenger volume of 4.402 billion and freight volume of 4.13 billion tons [12]. - Jinchuan Group expects a significant profit increase for 2025, driven by improved gross margins and increased delivery volumes in high-speed train components [13]. CES 2026 Review - The CES 2026 highlighted the growth of the embodied intelligence industry, with a focus on AI integration in various applications, including industrial and consumer robotics [14][27]. - Key developments include the introduction of open-source AI models by leading companies like NVIDIA, aimed at enhancing robot development efficiency [15]. - Human-shaped robots gained attention, with Chinese companies showcasing advancements in commercial applications and international firms like Boston Dynamics announcing new production plans for their Atlas robot [18][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests tracking the commercialization of robots in industrial engineering and special inspections, as well as the production progress of humanoid robots [27]. - It emphasizes focusing on high-barrier core components, such as high-torque density motors and precision joint modules, which are critical for robotic performance [27]. - Attention is also drawn to platform manufacturing companies that can provide comprehensive services across multiple stages of production [27].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by at least 10% over the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the mechanical equipment industry, particularly in the detection services and rail transit equipment sectors, as well as advancements in the embodied intelligence product landscape showcased at CES 2026 [3][12][14]. Summary by Sections Detection Services - SGS Group announced the acquisition of Panacea Infosec to enhance its capabilities in payment security and information security, aiming to add at least 200 million Swiss francs in additional revenue by 2027 [9]. - Lianjian Technology plans to acquire a 55% stake in Zhongding Testing for 101 million yuan, strengthening its position in the consumer goods and food testing sector [10]. - Guangdian Measurement has received approval for a stock issuance to raise up to 1.3 billion yuan for various projects, including testing platforms for aerospace equipment and AI chips [11]. Rail Transit Equipment - The national railway is set to upgrade its transport capacity with new lines scheduled for production in 2026, including an increase of 243 passenger trains and 177 freight trains [12]. - Jinchuan Group expects a significant profit increase for 2025, projecting a net profit of 540 million to 620 million yuan, driven by improved gross margins and increased delivery volumes in high-speed train components [13]. Embodied Intelligence Industry - CES 2026 showcased a diverse range of AI hardware and robots, with a focus on vertical applications rather than generic products, indicating a shift towards more specialized solutions [14]. - Key investment themes include tracking the commercialization progress of whole machine enterprises, focusing on high-barrier core components, and recognizing platform manufacturing companies with global response capabilities [27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of advancements in sensors and actuators, with companies like Leisai Intelligent and others showcasing integrated joint modules and high-precision components [24][26].