证券研究报告：有色金属 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-07-01 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 19.50 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）265.78 | / 205.88 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）5,183 | / 4,015 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 19.78 / 14.15 | | 资产负债率(%) | 55.2% | | 市盈率 | 16.12 | | 第一大股东 | 闽西兴杭国有资产投资 | | 经营有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 紫金矿业(601899) 拟收购哈国金矿，全球布局更进一步 l 公司拟收购哈萨克斯坦 RG 金矿 100%权益 紫金矿业全资子公司紫金黄金国际（拟分拆至香港联合交易所上 市的主体），拟以 12 亿美元对价，收购 Cantec ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - A military parade will be held on September 3, showcasing both traditional main battle forces and new domain capabilities, reflecting the modernization of the military [12][13] - The military industry is expected to see a turning point in orders in 2025, driven by new technologies and products aimed at enhancing equipment performance and reducing costs [20] - Investment recommendations focus on two main lines: aerospace and "gap-filling" new focuses, and new technologies, products, and markets with greater elasticity [20] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the military industry is 1596.82, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [2] Market Performance - The military sector index increased by 6.23%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.91% [22] - The top ten performing stocks in the military sector this week include Changcheng Military Industry (+43.85%) and Zhongke Haixun (+34.89%) [24] Valuation Levels - As of June 27, 2025, the military sector's PE-TTM valuation is 110.98, with 81.19% of the time since January 1, 2014, the PE-TTM valuation has been lower than the current level [26][29] Investment Suggestions - Suggested stocks for the aerospace main line include Feilihua, Fenghuo Electronics, and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft [20] - New technology and market opportunities include companies like Aerospace Zhizao and Guangdong Hongda [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a first-time coverage [1] Core Insights - The company has shown stable growth in its two core businesses, with a revenue of 1.594 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 364 million yuan, up 16.11% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is diversifying its business into areas such as blood glucose management and cardiovascular health, indicating the emergence of second and third growth curves [5] - The company has made significant progress in its global industrial layout, with new production facilities in Daya Bay and Malaysia, enhancing its delivery capabilities for overseas business expansion [6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 296 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.05%, but the net profit decreased by 10.62% to 52 million yuan [4] - The company forecasts revenue growth from 1.942 billion yuan in 2025 to 2.859 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 452 million yuan to 668 million yuan during the same period [7][9] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22.2, 18.3, and 15.0 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [7][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The liquidity of medium - and long - term urban investment bonds continues to rise, and the number of high - grade liquid bonds of medium - and high - grade medium - and long - term industrial bonds increases [1][8][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - **Liquidity**: Medium - and long - term high - grade liquid urban investment bonds continue to increase. Regionally, high - grade liquid bonds in Jiangsu, Shandong, and Sichuan increase, while those in Tianjin and Chongqing remain stable. In terms of maturity, the liquidity of short - term and medium - long - term bonds rises; the number of high - grade liquid bonds within 1 year and 1 - 2 years increases, that of 2 - 3 years decreases, and that of 3 - 5 years and over 5 years continues to increase. In terms of implicit rating, the liquidity of medium - and high - grade bonds increases, while that of low - grade bonds remains stable [1][8]. - **Yield**: Regionally, the yields of high - grade liquid bonds in Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, Tianjin, and Chongqing mainly rise, with an increase range of 1 - 3BP. In terms of maturity, the yields of high - grade liquid bonds at all maturities mainly rise, with an increase range of 1 - 2BP. In terms of implicit rating, the yields of bonds at all implicit levels mainly rise, with an increase range of 1 - 3BP; the yield of AA - bonds rises by about 5bp [11]. - **Top 20 Increase and Decrease in Liquidity Score**: The top 20 in terms of increase in liquidity score are mainly AA and AA + in terms of entity level, concentrated in regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, and Guangdong, and mainly in industries such as architectural decoration, transportation, and real estate. The top 20 in terms of decrease are mainly AA in terms of entity level, distributed in regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, and Hubei, and mainly in industries such as architectural decoration and comprehensive [13]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds - **Liquidity**: The number of high - grade liquid bonds of medium - and long - term medium - and high - grade industrial bonds increases. By industry, the high - grade liquid bonds in industries such as real estate, public utilities, transportation, coal, and steel all increase, with public utilities increasing more. In terms of maturity, the high - grade liquid bonds within 1 year and 3 - 5 years increase overall, while those of 1 - 2 years, 2 - 3 years, and over 5 years basically remain stable. In terms of implicit rating, the number of high - grade liquid bonds with implicit ratings of AAA, AAA -, and AA + increases, while those with implicit ratings of AAA + and AA remain stable [2][18]. - **Yield**: By industry, the yields of real estate bonds mainly decline, with a decline range of about 2 - 4bp, concentrated at 1 - 3BP; the yields of public utilities and coal bonds mainly rise, with an increase range of 1 - 3bp; the yields of transportation, coal, and steel bonds fluctuate. In terms of maturity, the yields of 2 - 3 - year bonds mainly decline, with a decline range of 2 - 3bp; the yields of 3 - 5 - year bonds mainly rise, with an increase range of 1 - 3bp; the yields of other maturities fluctuate. In terms of implicit level, the yields of AAA bonds mainly rise, with an increase range of 2 - 3bp; the yields of A - grade liquid bonds with an implicit level of AA + basically remain stable, and the yields of B - grade bonds decline by about 3bp; the yields of bonds at other implicit levels fluctuate [20]. - **Top 20 Increase and Decrease in Liquidity Score**: In terms of the increase in liquidity score, the top 20 entities are mainly in industries such as public utilities, real estate, steel, and architectural decoration, with entity levels mainly AAA and AA +; the top 20 bonds are mainly in industries such as transportation, coal, and public utilities. In terms of the decrease, the top 20 entities are mainly in architectural decoration, real estate, and public utilities, with entity levels mainly AAA, and the top 20 bonds are mainly in industries such as transportation and architectural decoration [22].

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-07-01 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报：关税扰动下，联储降 息仍需等待》 - 2025.06.24 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：降息预期升温，美股表现积极 ⚫ 核心观点： 本周五，美国将公布 6 月非农就业报告，鉴于近期多项相关数据 如申领失业金人数、经济评议会劳动力市场调查等均显示就业市场明 显有所走弱，这份非农报告或将体现就业市场继续放缓，这将压制未 来服务通胀，并为美联储进一步降息打开空间。从上周美联储理事鲍 曼鸽派发言后的市场表现来看，美股对降息预期升温的反应相当积 极，如果非农就业数据延续近期温和走弱的态势，短期内有望进一步 提振股市表现。 美国国债长端利率的调整可能已基本到位。目前，期限溢价处于 历史高位。其次，30 年期国债与 30 年期隔夜指数掉期（OIS）利差显 示，美国财政状况也已被投资者充分定价。上周末，"大而美 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-07-01 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 《6 月经济景气度延续平稳，关注价格 改善的前瞻性信号》 - 2025.06.20 宏观研究 偏乐观看待工业企业利润的后续走势 投资要点 通过 5 月工业企业利润来看，尽管 5 月我国出口增速保持较高韧 性，促消费政策效果持续显现，但在外部环境不确定性仍大的背景下， 短期市场微观主体采取谨慎策略，以订单驱动生产，短期生产、投资 和消费或趋于收缩，PPI 同比增速变化走弱，进而拖累工业企业利润。 因 PPI 增速持续走弱、工业企业利润增速转负，亦会对就业景气度产 生冲击，如领取失业金人数、居民就业预期和居民收入预期均呈现走 弱迹象，这会制约了消费内生修复动能的修复，这也解释了当前消费 主要是促消费政策拉动。与此同时，消费回暖并未传导至生产端，或 是生产结构调整的影响，未来生产性服务业或将成为新的增长驱动 力。 基于此，在 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5][12]. Core Insights - The company, Hu Shang A Yi, is positioned as a leading tea beverage brand in Northern China, focusing on high-cost performance and health-oriented products. It has rapidly expanded its presence across the country since its establishment in 2013 [5][6]. - As of the end of 2024, Hu Shang A Yi operates a total of 9,176 stores nationwide, with a balanced distribution between Northern and Southern markets [7][8]. - The company has adopted a multi-brand strategy, with three main brands: Hu Shang A Yi, Hu Ka, and Cha Pu Bu, catering to different market segments and price points [8][11]. Company Overview - Hu Shang A Yi has a significant presence in lower-tier cities, with approximately 50.4% of its stores located in third-tier cities and below, while only 7.5% are in first-tier cities [7]. - The company has shown resilience in the face of industry challenges, maintaining a daily average GMV of around 4,000 RMB per store, although it experienced a slight decline due to recent market disruptions [8][9]. Industry Analysis - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size projected to reach 1,163.4 billion RMB by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 17.6% from 2023 to 2028 [9][10]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with no clear leader in the mass tea beverage segment yet, indicating potential for market share shifts among existing players [10]. - The industry is transitioning into a phase of intense competition, likened to a "Warring States" period, where identifying and investing in potential leading companies is crucial [10][11]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 28%, 19%, and 15% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 46%, 33%, and 17% during the same period [12][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 4.57 RMB in 2025 to 7.09 RMB in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 25x to 16x [12][14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][41]. Core Views - The agricultural sector has shown a weak performance compared to the market, with the agricultural index rising only 0.80%, ranking 25th among 31 sectors [5][12][13]. - The pig price has rebounded slightly after a decline, with the average price at 14.35 CNY/kg as of June 29, 2025, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.42 CNY/kg [6][16]. - The white feather chicken market is facing challenges with both chick and meat prices declining, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector's index increased by 0.80%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, which rose by 1.95% and 0.91% respectively [12][13]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs: Weak Price Fluctuations - The average pig price has stopped declining and is now at 14.35 CNY/kg, while the average price for 15kg piglets is 460 CNY/head, showing a slight decrease [6][16]. - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.14 kg, down 0.14 kg from the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.71% [6][16]. - The supply of pigs is expected to remain stable, with a controlled growth rate in supply for 2025, leading to narrow price fluctuations [19][20]. 2.2 White Feather Chicken: Supply Strong, Demand Weak - As of June 27, 2025, the price of white feather chicken chicks is 1.90 CNY/chick, unchanged from the previous week, while the price of meat chickens is 3.40 CNY/kg, down 2.30% [30]. - The industry is currently facing significant losses due to a strong supply and weak demand, with concerns about the impact of imported breeds due to avian influenza outbreaks [30]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have shown a slight increase, with white sugar priced at 6090 CNY/ton, up 55 CNY/ton [34]. - Soybean prices have also risen, with the imported price at 3739 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.9% increase [34]. - Corn prices have continued to rise, averaging 2392 CNY/ton, up 11 CNY/ton [34].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation, with leading retail pharmacies expected to rebound first. The number of closed pharmacies in 2024 reached a total of 39,228, indicating a significant industry cleanup. This is expected to enhance customer traffic and profit margins for leading pharmacies [4][5] - The implementation of outpatient coordination is anticipated to bring performance growth, as leading retail pharmacies can attract more customers and increase average transaction values through enhanced insurance coverage and related product consumption [5] - Leading retail pharmacies are actively exploring diversified operations to enhance market competitiveness, with innovative store formats and service models being developed to attract more customers [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing price of the industry is 4975.11, with a 52-week high of 5679.6 and a low of 4139.32 [1] Industry Performance - The relative performance of the pharmaceutical commercial sector shows a gradual improvement, with a 21% increase noted by June 2025 compared to earlier months [3] Recommendations and Beneficiaries - Recommended stocks include Yifeng Pharmacy and Daclin, while beneficiaries include Laobaixing, Yixintang, and Jianzhijia [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company, founded in 2009, is a leading brand in promoting traditional Chinese gold craftsmanship and aims to reshape the gold jewelry market in China. It maintains a high-end positioning focused on "traditional gold" [6][10]. - The company has successfully expanded its store network, opening its first overseas store in Singapore and a new store in Shanghai in June 2025. By the end of 2024, it had 36 stores across 15 cities, all located in high-end commercial centers [5][6]. - Same-store sales have been strong due to rising gold prices, brand recognition, and continuous product innovation. The company offers competitive pricing compared to traditional high-end jewelry brands [7]. - The outlook for gold prices remains positive, with expectations of continued upward movement, potentially exceeding $3,500 per ounce [7]. - The company is leveraging Chinese cultural elements in its product designs, with nearly 2,000 original designs and numerous patents, aiming to establish itself as a global luxury brand [9][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: HKD 1,008.00 - Total market capitalization: HKD 1,740.58 billion - Debt-to-asset ratio: 38.13% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 95.20 [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth forecast for 2025-2027: 128%, 39%, 12% - Net profit growth forecast for 2025-2027: 172%, 48%, 19% - Earnings per share (EPS) projections: HKD 23, HKD 34, HKD 41 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10][12].