股票投资评级 买入 |维持 个股表现 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 24% 29% 34% 盈康生命 医药生物 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 证券研究报告：医药生物 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-07-01 | 最新收盘价（元） | 9.50 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）7.49 | / 6.41 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）71 | / 61 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 10.99 / 7.07 | | 资产负债率(%) | 29.9% | | 市盈率 | 52.78 | | 第一大股东 | 青岛盈康医疗投资有限 | | 公司 | | 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:龙永茂 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110002 Email:longyongmao@cnpsec.com 盈康生命(300143) 长沙珂信肿瘤医院 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing growth driven by the automotive sector, particularly in the area of autonomous driving, which enhances the value of its products. The collaboration with international leading clients in the automotive industry is deepening, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid development of new energy vehicles [4] - The company's revenue from computing power is expected to continue increasing, with significant production capabilities established for HDI products, which are essential for AI servers. The company has secured substantial orders from both domestic and international clients [5] - The company is strategically expanding into AI-related businesses, focusing on humanoid robots, low-altitude flying vehicles, and AI smart glasses, which opens up new growth opportunities [6] Financial Projections - The projected revenues for the company are 61.0 billion, 80.1 billion, and 95.1 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 9.0 billion, 11.5 billion, and 14.0 billion yuan for the same years [7] - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow at rates of 21.54%, 31.29%, and 18.64% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.94 yuan in 2024 to 1.94 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [9]

Investment Rating - The report rates the mental health services industry as "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and maintains this rating [1]. Core Insights - The mental health services industry is entering an innovative development phase, driven by increased awareness and policy support, with a projected market size of 10.41 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 27% from 2020 to 2025 [3][40]. - The demand for mental health services is rising due to factors such as increased societal competition, relationship issues, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to a significant rise in anxiety and depression rates globally [17][20]. - The supply side faces a severe shortage of professional mental health resources, with only 54 psychiatric beds per 100,000 people in China, compared to 12.7 in the U.S. and 11.9 in Japan, indicating a long-term imbalance between supply and demand [48]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The mental health services industry is defined as utilizing principles and methods to address psychological and behavioral issues, categorized into psychotherapy, psychological counseling, and general mental health services [3][9]. - The industry chain includes upstream drug development, midstream mental health institutions, and downstream digital mental health service platforms [10]. 2. Demand Side - The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated global anxiety and depression, with a 28% increase in depression cases and a 26% increase in anxiety cases reported in 2020 [17]. - Social pressures, particularly among youth and low-income groups, have heightened the risk of mental health issues, with significant academic and employment-related stress [23][32]. - The market for mental health services is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected market size of 10.41 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increasing consumer awareness and the expansion of online mental health services [40]. 3. Supply Side - There is a critical shortage of psychiatric resources in China, with only 54 psychiatric beds per 100,000 people, highlighting the need for increased mental health services [48]. - Psychological counseling and general mental health services are gaining recognition as essential supplementary methods to professional diagnosis and treatment [54]. - Various therapeutic methods, including yoga, massage, and digital therapies, are emerging as popular options for mental health support [56][58][64].

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: barra1d **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on short-term factor performance using daily data **Model Construction Process**: Utilizes historical data to calculate factor exposures and applies industry-neutral adjustments. Stocks are ranked based on factor scores, with the top 10% selected for long positions and the bottom 10% for short positions. Adjustments include equal weighting and monthly rebalancing[19][21][30] **Model Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance in short-term factor analysis[19][21][30] - **Model Name**: barra5d **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on medium-term factor performance using five-day data **Model Construction Process**: Similar to barra1d, but uses a five-day rolling window for factor calculations. Stocks are ranked and selected based on factor scores, with monthly rebalancing and equal weighting applied[19][21][30] **Model Evaluation**: Exhibits robust medium-term factor performance, outperforming other models in cumulative returns[19][21][30] - **Model Name**: open1d **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on factor performance using daily open prices **Model Construction Process**: Factors are calculated using daily open price data, with industry-neutral adjustments applied. Stocks are ranked based on factor scores, and the top 10% are selected for long positions, while the bottom 10% are shorted. Monthly rebalancing is implemented[19][21][30] **Model Evaluation**: Performs well in certain market conditions but shows higher volatility compared to other models[19][21][30] - **Model Name**: close1d **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on factor performance using daily close prices **Model Construction Process**: Factors are calculated using daily close price data, with industry-neutral adjustments applied. Stocks are ranked based on factor scores, and the top 10% are selected for long positions, while the bottom 10% are shorted. Monthly rebalancing is implemented[19][21][30] **Model Evaluation**: Demonstrates weaker performance compared to other models, with significant drawdowns observed[19][21][30] Model Backtesting Results - **barra1d**: Weekly excess return 0.17%, monthly excess return 0.32%, six-month excess return 4.09%, year-to-date excess return 3.93%[32] - **barra5d**: Weekly excess return 0.13%, monthly excess return 0.39%, six-month excess return 7.59%, year-to-date excess return 7.56%[32] - **open1d**: Weekly excess return -0.35%, monthly excess return -0.71%, six-month excess return 5.85%, year-to-date excess return 6.30%[32] - **close1d**: Weekly excess return 0.55%, monthly excess return 0.40%, six-month excess return 6.40%, year-to-date excess return 6.31%[32] - **Multi-factor model**: Weekly excess return -0.38%, monthly excess return -0.04%, six-month excess return 3.56%, year-to-date excess return 2.82%[32] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Beta **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures historical beta to assess market sensitivity **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated using historical beta values derived from regression analysis of stock returns against market returns[15][16] **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance in high-volatility environments[15][16] - **Factor Name**: Momentum **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures historical excess return trends **Factor Construction Process**: Combines weighted averages of historical excess return volatility, cumulative excess return deviation, and residual return volatility using the formula: $ Momentum = 0.74 * Historical Excess Return Volatility + 0.16 * Cumulative Excess Return Deviation + 0.1 * Residual Return Volatility $[15][16] **Factor Evaluation**: Performs well in trending markets but struggles in reversal scenarios[15][16] - **Factor Name**: Volatility **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures stock price fluctuation intensity **Factor Construction Process**: Combines weighted averages of monthly, quarterly, and annual turnover rates using the formula: $ Volatility = 0.35 * Monthly Turnover Rate + 0.35 * Quarterly Turnover Rate + 0.3 * Annual Turnover Rate $[15][16] **Factor Evaluation**: Strong performance in high-volatility stocks[15][16] - **Factor Name**: Valuation **Factor Construction Idea**: Assesses stock valuation using price-to-book ratio **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the inverse of the price-to-book ratio[15][16] **Factor Evaluation**: Performs well in identifying undervalued stocks[15][16] Factor Backtesting Results - **Beta**: Weekly excess return 0.17%, monthly excess return 0.32%, six-month excess return 4.09%, year-to-date excess return 3.93%[32] - **Momentum**: Weekly excess return -0.38%, monthly excess return -0.04%, six-month excess return 3.56%, year-to-date excess return 2.82%[32] - **Volatility**: Weekly excess return 0.55%, monthly excess return 0.40%, six-month excess return 6.40%, year-to-date excess return 6.31%[32] - **Valuation**: Weekly excess return 0.13%, monthly excess return 0.39%, six-month excess return 7.59%, year-to-date excess return 7.56%[32]

发布时间：2025-06-30 大盘指数 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《震荡仍是主旋律，等待内部政策窗口 期》 - 2025.06.16 策略观点 以静待时 ⚫ 投资要点 A 股自去年 9.24 行情开启之后，一大特征是散户情绪对市场一 度有着主导作用，这一点在散户情绪指数和万得全 A 在 9.24 至今年 4 月初的强耦合关系中得以体现。但在进入 5 月之后，散户情绪持续 走低，万得全 A 指数震荡攀升，二者已经不再紧密趋同。如果将 6.24 看作是 9.24 的重复，那么首先要回答的问题就是散户情绪能否再次 走向亢奋？ 自 2022 年以来 A 股散户情绪亢奋均需要重大的政策或产业事件 作为刺激，从未像 2020-2021 年间那样出现过指数上涨和散户情绪亢 ...

- The diffusion index model tracks industry rotation and has achieved an excess return of 0.37% since 2025[26][27][31] - The diffusion index ranks industries weekly based on momentum, with top industries including non-bank finance (1.0), comprehensive finance (1.0), and media (0.976)[4][28][30] - The diffusion index suggests monthly industry allocation, recommending sectors such as non-bank finance, banking, and media for June 2025[27][31] - GRU factor model focuses on industry rotation based on transaction data, achieving an excess return of -4.76% in 2025[33][36][34] - GRU factor ranks industries weekly, with top industries including textile & apparel (3.7), construction (3.34), and real estate (3.28)[5][13][34] - GRU factor suggests weekly industry allocation, recommending sectors such as real estate, transportation, and coal for the current week[36][34][33]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is designed to monitor the critical points of trend changes in the diffusion index, which reflects the breadth of stock price movements within the micro-cap index constituents[5][40]. - **Model Construction Process**: The diffusion index is calculated based on the relative price changes of constituent stocks over a specific time window. For example, if all stocks in the micro-cap index drop by 5% after 5 days, the diffusion index value is 0.13. The formula is as follows: $ DI = \frac{\text{Number of stocks meeting criteria}}{\text{Total number of stocks}} $ The model uses three methods to generate signals: - **Initial Threshold Method (Left-Side Trading)**: Triggered a sell signal on May 8, 2025, when the index reached 0.9850[43]. - **Delayed Threshold Method (Right-Side Trading)**: Triggered a sell signal on May 15, 2025, at 0.8975[47]. - **Dual Moving Average Method (Adaptive Trading)**: Triggered a sell signal on June 11, 2025[48]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies overbought conditions and provides timely sell signals, but its predictive power may be limited by the dynamic updates of index constituents[40][5]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Illiquidity Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the illiquidity of stocks, which is inversely related to trading volume and price impact[4][35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated as the ratio of absolute daily returns to trading volume over a specific period. $ Illiquidity = \frac{|R_t|}{Volume_t} $ - $R_t$: Daily return - $Volume_t$: Daily trading volume - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor showed the highest rank IC this week (0.174), significantly outperforming its historical average (0.038), indicating strong predictive power in the current market environment[4][35]. 2. Factor Name: 1-Year Volatility Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the historical price volatility of stocks over the past year[4][35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated as the standard deviation of daily returns over the past 252 trading days. $ Volatility = \sqrt{\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{252}(R_i - \bar{R})^2}{252}} $ - $R_i$: Daily return - $\bar{R}$: Average daily return - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor ranked second in rank IC this week (0.155), a significant improvement from its historical average (-0.033), suggesting its relevance in identifying outperforming stocks[4][35]. 3. Factor Name: Beta Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market returns[4][35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated using regression analysis: $ R_i = \alpha + \beta R_m + \epsilon $ - $R_i$: Stock return - $R_m$: Market return - $\beta$: Beta coefficient - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor ranked third in rank IC this week (0.146), outperforming its historical average (0.004), indicating its effectiveness in the current market[4][35]. 4. Factor Name: Free Float Ratio Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents the proportion of shares available for public trading relative to total shares outstanding[4][35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ Free\ Float\ Ratio = \frac{\text{Free Float Shares}}{\text{Total Shares Outstanding}} $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor ranked fourth in rank IC this week (0.113), significantly better than its historical average (-0.011), highlighting its predictive strength in the current market[4][35]. 5. Factor Name: Leverage Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the financial leverage of a company, indicating its debt level relative to equity[4][35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ Leverage = \frac{\text{Total Debt}}{\text{Total Equity}} $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor ranked fifth in rank IC this week (0.031), slightly above its historical average (-0.005), showing moderate predictive power[4][35]. --- Backtesting Results of Factors Weekly Rank IC Performance 1. **Illiquidity Factor**: Weekly rank IC = 0.174, Historical average = 0.038[4][35] 2. **1-Year Volatility Factor**: Weekly rank IC = 0.155, Historical average = -0.033[4][35] 3. **Beta Factor**: Weekly rank IC = 0.146, Historical average = 0.004[4][35] 4. **Free Float Ratio Factor**: Weekly rank IC = 0.113, Historical average = -0.011[4][35] 5. **Leverage Factor**: Weekly rank IC = 0.031, Historical average = -0.005[4][35] Weekly Rank IC Underperformance 1. **Nonlinear Market Cap Factor**: Weekly rank IC = -0.285, Historical average = -0.033[4][35] 2. **Log Market Cap Factor**: Weekly rank IC = -0.285, Historical average = -0.033[4][35] 3. **10-Day Return Factor**: Weekly rank IC = -0.205, Historical average = -0.061[4][35] 4. **10-Day Free Float Turnover Factor**: Weekly rank IC = -0.183, Historical average = -0.06[4][35] 5. **10-Day Total Market Cap Turnover Factor**: Weekly rank IC = -0.16, Historical average = -0.059[4][35] --- Strategy Performance Small-Cap Low-Volatility 50 Strategy - **Strategy Description**: Selects 50 stocks with the smallest market capitalization and lowest volatility from the micro-cap index constituents, rebalanced biweekly[19][37]. - **Performance**: - 2024 Return: 7.07%, Excess Return: -2.93% - 2025 YTD Return: 53.93%, Weekly Excess Return: 0.38% - Benchmark: Wind Micro-Cap Index (8841431.WI) - Transaction Cost: 0.3% per side[19][37]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the approval of measures by the National Medical Products Administration to optimize the lifecycle regulation supporting the innovation of high-end medical devices, which is expected to enhance the development of the industry [4][5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Information - The closing index is at 7672.88, with a 52-week high of 8490.25 and a low of 6070.89 [1] Industry Relative Index Performance - The projected performance of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector shows a range of percentage changes from -9% to 27% over the specified periods, indicating a potential upward trend [3] Industry Events - The National Medical Products Administration has passed measures to support high-end medical device innovation, including optimizing special approval processes and enhancing post-market supervision [4][5] Suggested Focus Areas 1) Medical Robots: Companies such as Microbotics, Kangji Medical, Tianzhihang, Chunli Medical, and Aihua Medical [7] 2) High-end Medical Imaging Equipment: Companies like Mindray Medical, United Imaging, Aohua Endoscopy, Kaili Medical, and Xiangsheng Medical [8] 3) Artificial Intelligence Medical Devices: Companies including Jingtai Holdings, Rundat Medical, and BGI Genomics [8] 4) New Biological Materials Medical Devices: Companies such as Maipu Medical, Kangtuo Medical, Aojing Medical, Bairen Medical, and Zhenghai Biological [8]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The core viewpoint indicates that the core driving force of the humanoid robot sector is shifting from event-driven catalysts to tangible validation, with the upcoming release of Tesla's Optimus Gen3 expected to significantly impact the market [6][36] - The humanoid robot index has shown a year-to-date increase of 23.41%, outperforming major indices such as the Sci-Tech 50 and the CSI 300 [13][14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index level is 1639.4, with a 52-week high of 1803.12 and a low of 1122.98 [1] Recent Market Performance - The humanoid robot index increased by 5.36% in the week of June 23-27, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300, which rose by 1.95% [13][14] Important Industry Dynamics 1. **Industry Development**: - Huawei's developer conference focused on building an open ecosystem for robot cloud services [20] - Beijing Galaxy General Robotics completed a financing round exceeding 1.1 billion yuan, marking a significant investment in the humanoid robot sector [21] - Tesla's Optimus V3 is set to integrate advanced AI capabilities, with production targets of 10,000 units by 2026 [23] 2. **Policy News**: - The Shandong provincial government has launched a high-quality development action plan for the robot industry, aiming for a scale exceeding 50 billion yuan by 2027 [33] 3. **Supply Chain Dynamics**: - Meih Lake Co. deepened its collaboration with Foxconn Robotics, focusing on core components for humanoid robots [34] Industry Perspectives - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-elasticity segments within the humanoid robot industry, particularly Tier 1 assemblers and components such as dexterous hands and sensors [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [9][15]. Core Insights - The company has undergone a change in controlling shareholder, which has led to improvements in governance and the establishment of a joint venture to expand into the cultural tourism business, presenting new growth opportunities [4][6][9]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for 2024, with a 63.07% year-on-year decrease, primarily due to business restructuring and a drop in income across various segments [4][5]. - The financial outlook for the company is projected to improve, with expected revenues of 33 billion, 43 billion, and 47 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside a gradual return to profitability [9][11]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 12.60 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 32 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a high asset-liability ratio of 90.8%, indicating significant leverage [3][5]. - The largest shareholder is Hunan Xiangjiang New District Development Group, which holds an 18.81% stake [3][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.03 billion yuan and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 547 million yuan [4][11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 0.11 yuan, 0.30 yuan, and 0.47 yuan respectively, reflecting a recovery in profitability [9][11]. - The company’s EBITDA is projected to turn positive in 2025, with estimates of 71.59 million yuan, indicating a potential turnaround in operational performance [11][14].