Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with all three major indices falling, while the Sci-Tech 50 index rose against the trend, indicating a mixed market sentiment [2][4] - The electronic, telecommunications, and social services sectors led the gains, while the metal materials, mining, comprehensive finance, insurance, and agricultural products sectors saw corrections [2][4] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.06%, the ChiNext Index by 1.64%, the SSE 50 by 1.35%, and the CSI 300 by 1.16%. In contrast, the Sci-Tech 50 rose by 0.72%, and the CSI 1000 dropped by 1.04%. The total market turnover was approximately 3.17 trillion yuan [2][7][12] - Among the Longjiang primary industries, electronics (+0.93%), telecommunications (+0.31%), and social services (+0.29%) were the top performers, while metal materials and mining (-3.16%), comprehensive finance (-3.00%), and insurance (-2.22%) lagged [7][12] Market Drivers - The decline in the A-share market was accompanied by increased trading volume, returning to high levels. AI computing hardware stocks led the gains, while sectors such as trading software, rare metals, and industrial metals experienced corrections [7][12] - The market outlook remains optimistic, with expectations of a "slow bull" trend in the A-share market, driven by ample liquidity and the potential for long-term capital inflows [12][13] Investment Strategy - Short-term focus should be on sectors with recent revenue growth and improving gross margins, including fiberglass, cement, fine chemicals, and other materials. Additionally, technology growth sectors such as AI computing and robotics should be monitored [12][13] - Long-term perspectives favor sectors benefiting from "de-involution" trends, including metals, transportation, chemicals, and lithium batteries, as well as high-end manufacturing technologies like AI and robotics [12][13]

Market Overview - On September 18, 2025, the Hong Kong stock market recorded a total trading volume of HKD 413.31 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 6.288 billion [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.35% at 26,544.85, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.99% to 6,271.22 [5][7] Industry Insights - The recent announcement by Huawei regarding the evolution and goals of its Ascend chips over the next three years has positively impacted the semiconductor sector, leading to a significant rise in the Wind Hong Kong Semiconductor Index [2][7] - The performance of leading toy companies in Hong Kong has driven the Wind Hong Kong Durable Consumer Goods Index upward, attributed to the strengthening of their IP matrix, expectations of a consumption peak season, and a technical rebound from previous declines [2][7] Sector Performance - Among the major sectors, basic chemicals (+2.10%), pharmaceuticals (+0.31%), and defense industry (+0.10%) led the gains, while the comprehensive sector (-6.98%), coal (-2.47%), and media (-2.42%) faced declines [5][7] - Concept indices such as online education (+11.61%), financial IC (+8.49%), and Foxconn (+6.14%) showed strong performance, while local brokerage (-5.65%), liquor (-3.16%), and Wanda shares (-2.96%) lagged [5][7] Future Outlook - The report suggests three potential directions for the Hong Kong stock market to reach new highs: 1) AI technology and new consumption are expected to drive market growth, 2) continued inflows from southbound funds will enhance pricing power, and 3) improvements in global liquidity due to potential further rate cuts by the US could support market growth [2][7]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI产业跟踪：x-AI发布智能编程模型Grok Code Fast 1，持续关注模型迭代与商业化进展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 8 月 29 日，xAI 推出智能编程模型 Grok Code Fast 1，支持 256K 上下文，输入定价 $0.2/M tokens，输出定价$1.5/M tokens，可在多个 AI 编程助手和 IDE 中使用。模型专为应对 开发人员日常真实任务设计，以极致性价比与高响应效率打造竞争优势，有望在 Coding 领域 大规模落地。 Grok Code Fast 1 当前在 OpenRouter 等平台反响热烈，持续关注模型后续发 布。当前 Agent 投资核心逻辑强化，海内外模型加速迭代，模型能力持续提升、成本进一步下 降，Coding 等垂直场景 Agent 落地周期有望提前，看好 Agent 商业化元年及投资机遇。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 刘思缘 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 % ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - On September 15, 2025, xAI launched Grok-4 Fast, which is the fastest AI model in its lineup, achieving a generation speed of 75 tokens per second, ten times faster than the standard version. User feedback indicates a response speed that can be up to ten times that of the standard version. The early access version is currently being pushed to paid users, limited to Super Grok and X Premium+ subscribers. This speed-oriented design is expected to enhance user experience and efficiency, making it suitable for scenarios that require immediate results, and is likely to be integrated into development tools and mobile platforms, thereby shortening the commercialization cycle of AI applications [2][5][11]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The launch of Grok-4 Fast on September 15, 2025, is highlighted, with user feedback indicating a response speed that can reach up to ten times that of the standard version. The early access version is currently available to paid users only [5]. Event Commentary - The Fast version is positioned as a high-speed reasoning AI assistant, aiming to simplify complex task processes and address response delays in real-time interaction scenarios. This update makes the model more suitable for real-time applications such as rapid code generation and instant query processing. The introduction of a "background thinking function" is also noted, which may allow users to continue chatting while the assistant processes information. This could lead to significant improvements in the practicality of AI assistants [11]. Competitive Landscape - The focus on reasoning efficiency may become a new competitive factor, as other leading model manufacturers are also launching low-latency, high-speed models. The competition may shift from "extreme performance" to "reasoning efficiency first," with interaction paradigms evolving from "single-turn dialogue" to "real-time interaction and multi-turn agents" [11]. Future Outlook - Continuous attention is recommended for the subsequent releases of large models both domestically and internationally. The core logic of investment in agents is being reinforced, with expectations for a pivotal moment in Q4 for domestic models and applications. The capabilities of models are anticipated to improve while costs decrease, potentially accelerating the commercialization of agents in vertical scenarios like coding [11]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested areas for investment include: 1. AI Infrastructure, with a focus on domestic core players like Alibaba 2. AI Agent-related companies 3. The reasoning computing power industry chain in China 4. Cloud service providers benefiting from increased reasoning demand 5. IDC, particularly those collaborating with major firms like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [12] Core Insights - The report analyzes the growth trajectory and core competitive factors of the classic running shoe brand ASICS, highlighting its successful expansion in the global market despite past challenges [4][10] - It emphasizes the importance of addressing consumer pain points and the effectiveness of a focused single-brand strategy in the current multi-brand strategy environment [10] Summary by Sections Runner Demand Orientation - ASICS emerged as a leading running shoe brand in Japan by addressing the specific needs of runners, leveraging the country's strong marathon culture and continuous innovation [7][20] Strong Product Power & Localization - ASICS successfully expanded into overseas markets, particularly in Europe and North America, by localizing products and targeting professional runners through community marketing [8][83] Focus on Product and Service Ecosystem - After facing declining revenues and profits since 2016, ASICS refocused on high-margin running shoes and enhanced its service ecosystem for runners, leading to a significant recovery in performance [9][10] Challenges in the Chinese Market - ASICS entered the Chinese market in 2006 but faced challenges due to a lack of marathon events and a mismatch between its professional product offerings and the local demand for casual and fashionable sportswear [10][87]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -175 million yuan in Q2 2025, which is a 51% increase quarter-on-quarter; however, the non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was -671 million yuan, reflecting a 177% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. - The company is expected to see an increase in self-supply rates and improvements in production costs as it enters a phase of accelerated resource release [9]. - The lithium price has been declining, which has pressured the company's profitability, with a gross margin of 9.65% in Q2 2025, down 3.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's lithium salt business gross margin was 8.36%, down 3.39 percentage points year-on-year, while the lithium battery business gross margin was 14.17%, up 4.29 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company recorded a non-recurring income of 382 million yuan in H1 2025, primarily from the disposal of non-current assets and government subsidies [9]. - In Q2 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 65,300 yuan/ton, down 14% quarter-on-quarter, and the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was 64,800 yuan/ton, down 8% quarter-on-quarter [9]. Production and Cost Outlook - The company plans to produce 30,000-35,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2025, with a long-term operating cost expected to reach 65,430 USD/ton LCE (approximately 47,000 yuan/ton LCE) [9]. - The Goulamina lithium concentrate project is expected to commence production in December 2024, with promising profitability due to its resource scale and quality advantages [9]. - The Mariana salt lake project has already commenced production, with expectations for stable supply of lithium chloride products in H2 2025 [9]. Market Position and Future Prospects - The company is positioned as a leading resource player with a faster increase in self-supply rates and continuous cost optimization, which is expected to gradually improve profitability [9]. - The company is also increasing its focus on battery business, with the largest global capacity for lithium metal, indicating significant growth potential in the future [9].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (BP) to a target range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September 2025 meeting[2] - The dot plot indicates an increase in the expected cumulative rate cuts for the year from 50 BP to 75 BP[8] - The voting outcome was 11-1, with only one member supporting a 50 BP cut, indicating limited influence from the "MAGA" faction within the Fed[8] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2027, adjusting them to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively[8] - The unemployment rate forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were lowered by 0.1 percentage points (pct) to 4.4% and 4.3% respectively[8] - The inflation expectations for 2026 were increased by 0.2 pct for both PCE and core PCE to 2.6%[8] Group 3: Future Projections - The Fed is likely to implement another rate cut in October 2025, with a potential for 1-2 additional cuts by the end of the year[8] - The focus of monetary policy decisions has shifted from inflation to employment, reflecting the rising risks in the job market[8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be mild and largely one-time[8]

Fiscal Performance - Cumulative broad fiscal expenditure from January to August decreased year-on-year to 8.9%, with August showing a decline to 6%[3] - National general public budget revenue reached 14.8 trillion yuan, growing by 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure was 17.9 trillion yuan, increasing by 3.1%[7] Revenue Trends - Tax revenue in August continued to show positive growth for five consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.8%[10] - The structure of tax revenue in August revealed significant contributions from securities transaction stamp duty, which surged by 226% year-on-year, contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall tax revenue growth[10] Expenditure Insights - August's broad fiscal expenditure fell by 5.8% year-on-year, with public fiscal expenditure down by 0.6% and government fund expenditure declining by 19.9%[10] - Key areas such as social security and education maintained high growth rates, with expenditures increasing by 10.9% and 4.0% respectively[10] Land Sales and Debt - Revenue from land sales turned negative again in August, decreasing by 5.4% year-on-year, although overall land transaction values showed a 2% increase compared to last year[10] - The issuance of special bonds and treasury bonds supported fund expenditures, with actual issuance from January to August reaching 4.8 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan year-on-year[10] Debt Management - The government debt showed negative growth in August, indicating potential downward pressure on fiscal expenditure growth due to last year's high base[10] - The net financing of government debt from January to August was 4.3 trillion yuan, with expectations of a decline of 1.4 trillion yuan from September to December[10]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a slight increase, with stable market sentiment as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut approach, leading to significant gains in the technology sector [2][5][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 1.95%, with a total market turnover of 2.40 trillion yuan and 2,504 stocks rising [2][8] Market Performance - The A-share market saw gains across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.16%, and ChiNext Index up 1.95% [8] - The market turnover reached 2.40 trillion yuan, with 2,504 stocks experiencing an increase [8][21] Sector Performance - In the A-share market on September 17, 2025, sectors such as Power and New Energy Equipment (+2.73%), Automotive (+2.02%), Home Appliances (+1.62%), and Coal (+1.61%) saw notable increases, while sectors like Agricultural Products (-1.00%), Social Services (-0.89%), and Commercial Trade (-0.74%) faced declines [8] - Concept stocks such as Stock Trading Software (+4.73%), Lithography Machines (+4.24%), and Robotics (+3.09%) led the gains, while sectors like Gold and Jewelry, Aquaculture, and Prepared Dishes lagged [8] Market Drivers - The slight increase in the A-share market is attributed to stable market sentiment and the approaching possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which may attract foreign capital to the A-share market [8] - The robotics sector remained active due to advancements related to Tesla's humanoid robot, while the automotive sector benefited from rising automotive parts [8] Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, emphasizing the importance of "liquidity" in 2025, with expectations for a bull market based on historical precedents from 1999, 2014, and 2019 [8] - Short-term focus areas include sectors with recent revenue growth and improving gross margins, such as fiberglass, cement, and medical services, as well as technology growth sectors like lithium batteries and military industry [8] Long-term Perspective - In the technology growth sector, continued optimism is noted for AI computing, innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, and military industries, with increased attention on relatively low-positioned AI applications and deep-sea technology [8] - In sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics, focus is on metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and pig farming [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company's first localized production project in Europe is set to launch in Q3 2025 at the Magna plant in Graz, Austria, with the first batches of the G6 and G9 models successfully rolling off the production line. The Munich R&D center in Germany has also been activated, with expectations to produce more models in the future [2][4]. - The company is expected to see steady sales growth driven by a strong new vehicle cycle, with the MONA M03 and P7+ models marking the beginning of this cycle. The combination of scale enhancement, cost reduction from platforms and technology, and the expansion of software profitability models will provide significant earnings flexibility in the future [2][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established a full value chain layout in Europe, covering both R&D and mass production. Since entering the European market in 2021, it has expanded to over 46 countries and regions, achieving overseas sales of 18,700 units from January to July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 217% [8]. Sales and Revenue Projections - For Q3 2025, the company anticipates delivery volumes between 113,000 and 118,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 142.8% to 153.6%. Expected revenue is projected to be between 19.6 billion and 21 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 94.0% to 107.9% [8]. New Product Launches - The new models G6 and G9 have been well-received, achieving multiple sales championships in their respective domestic segments. The G6 model accounts for approximately 67% of the sales in the European market, with the P7+ model set to launch soon, further enhancing the company's product lineup [8]. Profitability Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a quarterly turnaround in profitability by Q4, with an anticipated positive free cash flow for the entire year. The revenue forecast for 2025 is projected at 92.8 billion yuan, with a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6X, indicating a significant improvement in financial performance driven by software revenue [8].