Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [5][37] Core Viewpoints - The market heat has declined in July, with sales showing a significant year-on-year drop, reaching a six-year low for the same period [1][14] - The sales performance of top real estate companies varies, with some showing stability while others experience significant declines [4][33] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven market dynamics and suggests that 2025 will be dominated by policy influences [5][37] Summary by Sections July Market Performance - In July, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales amount of 211.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 37.7% [1][14] - From January to July, the top 100 companies recorded a total sales amount of 1.8639 trillion yuan, down 12.5% year-on-year [1][14] Sales by Company Tier - The sales decline is observed across all tiers, with the smallest drop in the TOP21-30 tier at 6.3% year-on-year, while the TOP10 tier saw a decline of 14.9% [2][16] - The sales threshold for the top 100 companies decreased significantly, with the threshold for the top 10 dropping from 52.65 billion yuan to 49.16 billion yuan, a decline of 6.6% [3][28] Performance of Leading Companies - Some leading state-owned and benchmark private enterprises showed stable sales, with Yuexiu Property achieving a year-on-year growth of 12.6% in July [4][33] - Among the top 40 companies, 11 reported positive year-on-year growth in July, with the best performer being Bangtai Group at 82.6% [4][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to several reasons, including the expectation of stronger policy support compared to previous years and the potential for quality companies to benefit from improved competitive dynamics [5][37] - Recommended stocks include Green Town China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Development among others [5][37]

Employment Data Summary - In July, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000[2] - The June non-farm data was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs over two months[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, matching expectations, and the labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, major U.S. stock indices fell: S&P 500 down 1.6%, Nasdaq down 2.2%, and Dow Jones down 1.2%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 14.6 basis points to 4.22%, while the dollar index fell by 1.4% to 98.7[3] - Gold prices surged by 2.2% to $3,362.6 per ounce[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased from 40% to 87%[3] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2023 rose from an average of 1.3 to 2.4 times, indicating at least two cuts are anticipated[3] Economic Assessment - The significant downward revision in non-farm data does not necessarily indicate an imminent recession, as high-frequency indicators remain strong[4] - The downward adjustments are attributed to government layoffs, increased immigration enforcement, and natural disasters affecting employment statistics[5] Seasonal Market Trends - Historically, August and September are weak months for overseas stock markets, with a potential shift to a risk-on environment if non-farm data improves in September or October[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.32 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6 million yuan, down 96.6% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 698 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.42%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 19 million yuan, a decrease of 73.75% year-on-year [1] - The company sold approximately 160 million broiler chicks in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with an average selling price of 2.4 yuan per chick, up about 0.1 yuan from Q1 2025 [1] - The report highlights a seasonal rebound in chick prices expected in Q3 2025, driven by market replenishment in the peak season of September and October [1] - The company experienced a loss of 6.46 million yuan in investment income in Q2 2025, primarily due to losses from its stake in Beidahuang Baoquanling Agriculture and Animal Husbandry [1] Financial Summary - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 200 million, 570 million, and 590 million yuan, representing year-on-year changes of -60.2%, +186.3%, and +2.6% respectively [2] - The estimated P/E ratio for 2026 is 17 times [2] - The financial indicators for 2025E show a revenue of 3.113 billion yuan, a net profit of 200 million yuan, and an EPS of 0.18 yuan per share [4]

Tax Policy Changes - On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting August 8, 2025[1] - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity, creating a "new and old distinction" in tax application[6] Reasons for Tax Resumption - The historical mission of the tax exemption policy has been completed, as the bond market has grown significantly, now ranking second globally[3] - The resumption aims to adjust the funding structure and prevent excessive liquidity from being trapped in interest-bearing bonds, thereby increasing fiscal revenue and alleviating fiscal pressure[4] Financial Impact - The short-term revenue from the resumption of VAT on interest income is estimated to be around 34 billion yuan[5] - The tax revenue is expected to increase further as the scale of new debt issuance expands over time[5] Market Implications - In the short term, the resumption of VAT is likely to push interest rates down and create pricing differences between new and old bonds[8] - Long-term effects may be bearish for interest-bearing bonds as the cost advantage diminishes, potentially shifting investment towards credit bonds and dividend assets[8] Market Trends - Since mid-July, bond market volatility has increased significantly, influenced by liquidity conditions and strong stock market performance[9] - The 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated, reaching a high of approximately 1.75%[9]

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 02 年 月 日 海康威视（002415.SZ） 半年报业绩扎实稳健，精细化管理带来高质量发展 事件：海康威视发布 2025 年半年报，2025H1 公司实现营业总收入 418.18 亿元，比上年同期增长 1.48%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 56.57 亿元，比上年同期增长 11.71%。 抵御外部不确定性，收入端与利润端仍然实现稳健成长，凸显公司经营实 力。2025 年上半年，全球经济复苏动力不均，外部不确定性依然突出；国 内稳经济政策多措并举，经济展现出一定韧性但能见度较低，企业与社会 数字化转型升级进程在波动起伏中前进。面对复杂多变的国内外环境，海 康威视坚持稳扎稳打，以积极、审慎的态度应对各种不确定性，2025H1 仍 旧实现营业总收入 1.48%的增长和归母净利润 11.71%的增长，凸显公司 经营的稳健性。 境外业务平稳增长，创新业务提供最重要增长动能。2025H1，境外主业同 比增长 6.9%，成长平稳；创新业务同比增长 13.9%，是公司当前主要分 业务中增长最快的部分，为公司提供最重要的成长动力源泉。 优化运营体 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in its civil construction business while accelerating its overseas expansion [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 13.57 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 10.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 560 million yuan, down 40.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively pursuing channel transformation and consolidating its waterproofing main business while exploring new growth avenues in mortar and overseas markets [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025: - Waterproof membranes: 5.513 billion yuan, down 8.8%, gross margin 22.6%, down 5.2 percentage points - Coatings: 3.946 billion yuan, down 17.1%, gross margin 36.5%, down 1.0 percentage points - Mortar powder: 1.996 billion yuan, down 6.2%, gross margin 26.6%, down 0.87 percentage points - Engineering construction: 849 million yuan, down 32.3% [2]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.4%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 4.0% for the first half of 2025, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Cash Flow and Dividend - As of June 30, 2025, the company's accounts receivable totaled 11.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.3% year-on-year, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to 4.57 billion yuan [3]. - The company announced a mid-year dividend plan of 9.25 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 2.21 billion yuan [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.206 billion yuan, 1.427 billion yuan, and 1.461 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.8, 20.1, and 19.7 [4].

Group 1 - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the bond market, with credit bonds experiencing a larger decline compared to interest rate bonds, particularly in the period from July 18 to July 25, where 3Y and above interest rate bonds rose by 7-9 basis points, while credit bonds fell by 8-12 basis points [1][8][11] - The primary reasons for the market decline include a rebound in equity and commodity prices, a tightening of the funding environment, and increased redemption pressure [1][11][21] - Following the market adjustment, the report suggests that the credit market may enter a slow recovery phase, with the "stock-bond seesaw" effect being a short-term disturbance rather than a long-term trend [2][21][25] Group 2 - The report highlights a seasonal characteristic in credit bond net financing, with supply expected to rise from June to August, followed by a decline in September as corporate financing needs weaken [3][25][26] - It notes that the recent adjustments in the credit bond ETF market have led to a slowdown in growth, with some ETFs experiencing a slight contraction in scale [2][15][19] - The report emphasizes that the current credit market is relatively weak, with significant volatility and limited space for narrowing credit spreads, particularly in the short to medium term [3][27]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 31 年 月 日 宏观政策坚持稳中求进的基调，整体保持定力，但也未排除因应环境变化的增 量政策。本次会议在宏观政策上继续强调"稳"，我们认为下半年宏观政策取 向可能并非强刺激，但会议提出""增强活性预见性预"""时加力力"指向向 果情况恶化，可能会有进一步积极的动作。具体来看，会议提出"要落实落细 更力积极的财政政策和时度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应"，表述从此 前"用足用好"改为"落实落细"，可能向向政策更侧重"提质"。虽然没有直 接提到降准降息，但提到"促进社会综合融资成本下行"，我们认为下半年引 导 LPR 小幅下降仍可期待。 房地产相关表述有所精简，并不代表房地产不重要，未来仍有待提升政策支持 力度。相较 2024 年数次政治局会议，本次会议关于房地产相关表述有所精简， 省略了 4 月会议诸 稳地产"房地产收储等相关表述。 但我们认为这并不代 表房地产不重要。2025 年以来，新房销售延续负增，量能处于近年最低水平， 不论是量"价均难言已实现稳地产的目标。低迷的市场持续影响房企拿地"开 工"施工等向标，对房地产开发投资乃至于经济 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the importance of geopolitical factors and AI as catalysts for investment opportunities in overseas markets [1][2] - The upcoming release of OpenAI's GPT-5 is expected to enhance AI capabilities across various applications, potentially impacting multiple sectors [3][10] - The report recommends a diversified portfolio of stocks, focusing on companies with strong growth potential in AI, consumer goods, and real estate [4][20] Recent Key Events - The third round of US-China trade talks took place in Sweden, with significant global attention on the outcomes [1][8] - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC 2025) in Shanghai gathered over 1,572 leaders and scholars to discuss the future of AI [2][9] - The H20 chip export ban was lifted, allowing for renewed trade with China, which could influence tech companies [2][9] Market Situation - The Hong Kong and US stock markets saw significant gains in July, with the Hang Seng Index rising from 24,072 points to 25,524 points, a 6.0% increase [11] - Net inflows from southbound trading reached 110.8 billion HKD in July, indicating strong investor interest in Hong Kong stocks [12][13] Current Portfolio Recommendations - **Pop Mart (9992.HK)**: Strong growth in overseas business with a 475%-480% increase in international revenue in Q1 2025 [21][22] - **Jintai Holdings (2228.HK)**: Positioned as a leader in AI for Science, with significant growth potential in the pharmaceutical sector [26][27] - **China Qinfa (0866.HK)**: Improved balance sheet with a net profit increase of 150.5% in 2024, driven by loan restructuring [30][33] - **Greentown China (3900.HK)**: Despite a decline in profits, the company is expected to stabilize and lead the industry due to strong land acquisition strategies [36][39] - **Alibaba (9988.HK)**: Revenue growth of 7% in Q4 2025, with a strong focus on AI and cloud services [40][41] - **Kuaishou-W (1024.HK)**: Significant growth in e-commerce and advertising revenue, driven by innovative marketing strategies [44][46] - **Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK)**: Record revenue of 111.3 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a strong performance in both mobile and AIOT sectors [47]

Group 1: PMI Trends - July manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a contraction for the fourth consecutive month[2] - Non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1%, a decline of 0.4 percentage points, with service and construction sectors dropping by 0.1 and 2.2 percentage points respectively[2] - Composite PMI output index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.2%, suggesting a slowdown in overall economic expansion[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Signals - July PMI production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating continued expansion but with weakening demand[3] - New orders index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, entering contraction territory, with new export orders down by 0.6 percentage points[3] - New export orders index dropped to 47.1%, remaining in contraction, while import orders held steady at 47.8%[3] Group 3: Price and Employment Insights - Price indices rebounded, with raw material and factory price indices rising by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively, indicating a narrowing decline in PPI[4] - Employment pressure eased slightly, with manufacturing, service, and construction employment indices increasing by 0.1, 0.0, and 1.0 percentage points respectively[4] - Service sector PMI fell to 50.0%, while construction PMI dropped 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, the second-lowest this year[6] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The July Politburo meeting indicated a focus on policy implementation, with potential new policies expected but not strong stimulus measures[6] - Economic pressures are anticipated to increase in the second half of the year, particularly in August and September, due to prior "export rush" effects and short-term contraction[6] - Continued monitoring of US-China trade negotiations is advised, as potential developments may impact market conditions[6]