Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant differentiation within the industry, particularly in the liquor segment, where companies are actively seeking transformation amid market pressures. It emphasizes three main investment themes: leading brands, high-certainty regional brands, and flexible companies benefiting from recovery [1][2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, companies like Yanjing and Zhujiang are expected to show strong profit growth, with Yanjing projected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing a challenging half-year, with demand and policy impacts leading to a slowdown in sales. The report anticipates that the performance expectations for the mid-year and the entire year of 2025 have been largely adjusted [2]. - Key players like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are focusing on service enhancement and transformation strategies to navigate the current market conditions. The report suggests that the upcoming month of September will be critical for assessing the impact of policies and consumer demand [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50%. Zhujiang Beer is also projected to see a profit increase of 15% to 25% [3]. - Eastroc Beverage is forecasted to generate revenue of 10.63 to 10.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 33% to 42% year-on-year [3]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that companies like Youyou Foods and Miaokelando are expected to report significant profit increases, with Youyou Foods projecting a revenue growth of 40.91% to 50.77% [7]. - The overall consumer goods sector is highlighted as a space to watch for growth, particularly for companies that are innovating and expanding their market reach [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, with estimates ranging from 680 to 720 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 53.35% to 62.37% [1] - The company has fully acquired a 100% stake in Zhongfu Aluminum, increasing its equity capacity to 750,000 tons, which is an increase of approximately 120,000 tons compared to 2024 [1][2] - The report highlights the company's strong resource and cost advantages in the green aluminum sector, positioning it for substantial growth through overseas expansion and deep integration with upstream and downstream partners [4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 155.8% [5] - The estimated operating revenue for 2025 is 26.332 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 15.7% [5] - The report forecasts a gradual increase in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with estimates of 1.8 billion, 2.334 billion, and 2.658 billion yuan respectively [4][5] Price and Cost Analysis - The average aluminum price in Q2 2025 is projected to be 20,200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.6% year-on-year [2] - The report notes a significant reduction in the cost of electricity for aluminum production, with the tax-inclusive cost in Henan at 0.21 yuan per kWh, down 26% year-on-year [2] - The profit from aluminum production in Q2 2025 is expected to be 3,378.6 yuan per ton, showing an increase of 11% year-on-year [2] Employee and Dividend Plans - The company has announced an employee stock ownership plan aiming to raise up to 1.25 billion yuan, with a share price set at 2.79 yuan per share [3] - The company plans to distribute at least 60% of its distributable profits as cash dividends annually from 2025 to 2027 [3]

Group 1: Credit Bond ETF Impact - The report highlights the significant acceleration in the growth of credit bond ETFs since their issuance in January 2025, particularly after mid-May, with a notable upward trend in scale [2] - On June 6, eight benchmark credit bond ETFs were successfully included in the range of general pledged repo collateral, enhancing their appeal to institutional investors such as banks, insurance companies, and funds [2] - The report focuses on two key phases: the initial building period and the rapid growth period, noting that during the building period, the overall interest rates were rising, but the sample bonds' increase was lower than that of comparable corporate bonds [2] Group 2: HeSai (HSAI.O) Overview - HeSai, established in 2014, specializes in the research and manufacturing of LiDAR technology, with a global leading shipment volume and a strong patent portfolio [3] - The report projects that the global market for vehicle-mounted LiDAR could reach 50 billion RMB by 2030, while the market for robotic LiDAR is expected to reach 10 billion RMB in the same timeframe [3] - HeSai is expected to achieve total revenues of 3.15 billion, 4.57 billion, and 6.06 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 52%, 45%, and 33% respectively [4] Group 3: Daikin Heavy Industries (002487.SZ) Performance - Daikin Heavy Industries is projected to exceed expectations in its performance due to high shipment growth and increased foreign exchange gains, with a favorable outlook for European offshore wind orders [4] - The company is expected to see its net profit attributable to shareholders reach 1.069 billion, 1.461 billion, and 1.893 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 20.1, 14.7, and 11.3 times [4] - The establishment of a floating center and active participation in global tenders are anticipated to enhance market share and net profit per pile [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leader in the LiDAR market, focusing on high-definition 3D perception technology to enable safer and smarter applications in intelligent driving and robotics [1][13]. - The demand for LiDAR is rapidly increasing due to advancements in intelligent driving and robotics, supported by cost-reduction innovations that enhance the cost-effectiveness of LiDAR as a sensor [1][2]. - The company is expected to reach a total revenue of approximately 31.5 billion, 45.7 billion, and 60.6 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with significant growth rates of 52%, 45%, and 33% respectively [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 2014 and has focused on LiDAR research and manufacturing for ten years, achieving global leadership in shipment volume [1][13]. - The company has a comprehensive product system and a broad customer base, with significant partnerships in the automotive and robotics sectors [23][28]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to have revenues of approximately 12.0 billion, 18.8 billion, and 20.8 billion RMB from 2022 to 2024, driven by the growth in LiDAR product shipments [34]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 35.2% in 2023 to 42.6% in 2024 due to effective cost-reduction measures and economies of scale [37]. - The company is anticipated to reach a non-GAAP net profit of approximately 0.14 billion RMB in 2024, indicating a turning point towards profitability [37]. Industry Analysis - The global market for automotive LiDAR is expected to reach 50 billion RMB by 2030, while the market for robotic LiDAR is projected to reach 10 billion RMB [1][2]. - The report highlights the diverse product paths available in the LiDAR market, including mechanical, semi-solid, and solid-state solutions [44].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the real estate market has passed a significant cyclical turning point since 2021, with sales volume and value dropping significantly from their peaks in 2021 to levels comparable to 2010 and 2016 by 2024 [11] - In the first five months of 2025, national commodity housing sales area decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, while sales value fell by 3.8%, indicating a narrow fluctuation in a generally low-volume market [11][12] - The supply of new homes continues to shrink, with a 9.7% year-on-year decline in new residential supply across 69 cities in the first half of 2025, which is a key factor suppressing transaction recovery [13] Group 2 - The report notes that the sales performance of new homes is significantly influenced by the quality of new supply, with the top 20 cities accounting for approximately 68% of sales value in the first half of 2025, reflecting a trend towards concentration in core urban areas [30] - The report indicates that the price index for new homes in 70 major cities showed a year-on-year decline of 4.1% in May 2025, with second-hand home prices also experiencing a decline, suggesting that price stabilization is contingent on a recovery in transaction volumes [24][22] - The report emphasizes that the second-hand housing market remains active, with transaction volumes at historically high levels, and that the proportion of second-hand transactions is increasing, reaching 69% in the first five months of 2025 [43]

Report Summary 1. Core View - In June, the CPI data showed mixed trends, with the year - on - year change turning from decline to increase and the month - on - month decline narrowing. The core CPI year - on - year increase continued to expand, mainly supported by the rising gold price. The PPI year - on - year decline widened, indicating weak overall price data. Due to insufficient domestic demand and high external demand uncertainty, China still needs a loose monetary environment. The bond market is strengthening, and in July, it is expected to have a short - to - long - term rally, with long - term bonds likely to break through key levels [1][4]. 2. CPI Analysis 2.1 Core CPI - In June, the core CPI year - on - year increased by 0.7%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and remained flat month - on - month. The "other goods and services" sub - item grew significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 8.1% in June, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. This was mainly supported by the 41.3% year - on - year increase in domestic gold futures prices in June. After excluding this sub - item, the CPI and core CPI in June were - 0.1% and + 0.3% year - on - year respectively, showing a weak overall price level [1][9]. 2.2 Food CPI - In June, the food CPI year - on - year decline narrowed, but the month - on - month decline widened. It decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, a narrowing of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, an expansion of 0.2 percentage points. Fresh fruit prices were the main drag, with a 3.3% month - on - month decline, affecting the CPI to drop by about 0.07 percentage points. Fresh vegetable prices rose by 0.7% month - on - month due to high - temperature and rainy weather [1]. 2.3 Non - food CPI - In June, the non - food CPI year - on - year changed from flat to an increase of 0.1%, and the month - on - month change turned from decline to flat. The rise in international oil prices was the main factor. The year - on - year decline of energy prices narrowed by 1.0 percentage points, and the downward pull on CPI year - on - year decreased by about 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous month. Gasoline prices rose by 0.4% month - on - month, driving energy prices to turn from a 1.7% year - on - year decline to a 0.1% increase [2]. 3. PPI Analysis 3.1 Production Materials PPI - In June, the production materials PPI year - on - year decline widened, and the month - on - month decline remained the same. It decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, an expansion of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by 0.6% month - on - month. This was mainly affected by the decline in industrial raw material prices and the increase in green power. Most domestic manufacturing raw material prices declined, and the prices of some industries such as ferrous metals and non - metallic minerals decreased due to weather and other factors. Green power increase also led to a decrease in power generation costs and related industry prices [3]. 3.2 Living Materials PPI - In June, the living materials PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 2.0% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points. Durable consumer goods decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points. Clothing and general daily necessities prices increased by 0.1% and 0.8% year - on - year respectively, with the increase expanding by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, possibly related to consumption - boosting policies [3]. 4. Market Outlook - The bond market is in a strengthening process. With the continuous loosening of funds, short - term interest rates are expected to decline more significantly in July. After the short - term decline, the yield curve will steepen, opening up space for long - term interest rates. The market is expected to have a short - to - long - term rally in July, and long - term bonds are likely to break through key levels. It is recommended to maintain a relatively high duration level, and a barbell - shaped portfolio allocation is relatively more advantageous. The report believes that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fall to the 1.4% - 1.5% level [4][25].

- The industry mainline model uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator to identify leading industries. The construction process involves calculating the past 20, 40, and 60 trading days' returns for 29 primary industry indices, normalizing the rankings, and averaging them to derive the final RSI value. Industries with RSI > 90% by April are likely to lead the market for the year[11][13][14] - The industry rotation model is based on the "Prosperity-Trend-Crowdedness" framework. It includes two sub-models: the industry prosperity model (high prosperity + strong trend, avoiding high crowdedness) and the industry trend model (strong trend + low crowdedness, avoiding low prosperity). Historical backtesting shows annualized excess returns of 14.4%, IR of 1.56, and a maximum drawdown of -7.4%[16][18][22] - The left-side inventory reversal model focuses on industries with low inventory pressure and potential for restocking. It identifies sectors undergoing a rebound from current or past difficulties. Historical backtesting shows absolute returns of 25.9% in 2024 and excess returns of 14.8% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks[28][30][29] - The industry ETF allocation model applies the prosperity-trend-crowdedness framework to ETFs. It achieves annualized excess returns of 15.5% against the CSI 800 benchmark, with an IR of 1.81. The model's excess returns were 6.0% in 2023, 5.3% in 2024, and 7.7% in 2025[22][27][16] - The industry prosperity stock selection model combines industry weights from the prosperity-trend-crowdedness framework with PB-ROE scoring to select high-value stocks within industries. Historical backtesting shows annualized excess returns of 20.0%, IR of 1.72, and a maximum drawdown of -15.4%[23][26][16] - The industry prosperity-trend model achieved excess returns of 3.9% in 2025, while the inventory reversal model showed absolute returns of 1.3% and excess returns of -2.1% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks[16][28][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. (京东方 A) [5][7] Core Viewpoints - The company emphasizes that LCD will remain the mainstream display technology in the medium to long term, while the flexible OLED market is rapidly growing. The industry is transitioning from competition based on scale and market share to high-value-driven competition [2] - BOE is advancing its "N Curve" growth strategy, focusing on new business growth areas such as perovskite photovoltaic devices and glass-based packaging, which are expected to support future growth [3] - The company's profitability is expected to improve as it transitions its capital strategy towards value creation, with significant capital expenditures and depreciation peaks anticipated in 2025, leading to a more favorable environment for shareholder returns [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at CNY 215.996 billion, CNY 239.566 billion, and CNY 264.058 billion, respectively. Corresponding net profits are projected to be CNY 9.415 billion, CNY 13.410 billion, and CNY 15.513 billion [5][6] - The report indicates a significant recovery in net profit growth rates, with expected year-on-year increases of 76.9% in 2025 and 42.4% in 2026 [6] Financial Metrics - The report provides key financial metrics, including a projected P/E ratio of 15.9 for 2025 and a P/B ratio of 1.0, indicating a favorable valuation relative to earnings and book value [6][7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 6.6% in 2025 to 9.6% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [6]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the automotive lighting control sector, with a solid foundation and strong product expansion capabilities. It has diversified into four major business areas: lighting control, motor control, energy management, and automotive electronics [1][14]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 29% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 770 million yuan, reflecting a 27% increase [1][3]. - The company is expanding its client base, which includes major global automotive manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW, and Ford, enhancing its market position [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a global leader in automotive lighting control, continuously expanding its business boundaries since its inception in 2003 [14]. - It has developed a range of products including LED lighting controllers, atmosphere lights, and motor control systems, integrating into the global high-end automotive electronic supply chain [14][18]. 2. Lighting Control Business - The lighting control segment is robust, with the company supplying major automotive manufacturers and maintaining strong customer loyalty [2][18]. - The company is actively developing new products, including next-generation headlight controllers for Volkswagen and BMW, which are expected to ramp up production in 2025-2026 [2]. 3. New Product Development - The company is expanding into domain controllers and Efuse products, which are expected to drive a second growth curve as the automotive E/E architecture shifts from distributed to centralized systems [3][4]. - The domain control products are projected to account for 86% of the energy management system revenue by 2024 [3][18]. 4. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1 billion yuan in 2025, 1.3 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.5 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 30%, 26%, and 22% [3][5]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22x, 18x, and 15x respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][5]. 5. Market Position and Client Base - The company has a strong client base that includes both domestic and international automotive manufacturers, positioning it well for future growth [18][19]. - It has become a tier-one supplier for several major automotive brands, enhancing its competitive advantage in the market [18][19].

Group 1: Chemical Industry Overview - The construction project growth rate in the basic chemical sector has turned negative, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [1] - The fixed asset growth rate is a leading indicator for supply growth, and the current negative trend in construction projects suggests that the chemical sector is approaching a new upward cycle [1][10] - The overall chemical sector requires multiple factors to resonate for the next upward cycle to begin, with oil prices being a key pricing anchor for most chemical products [1] Group 2: AI for Science (AI4S) in Chemical R&D - AI for Science represents a new paradigm in materials science research, with the potential to grow into a trillion-dollar market, significantly enhancing research efficiency through literature learning, AI model calculations, and automated laboratories [2] - The application of AI4S in the pharmaceutical sector is accelerating, with successful models for drug discovery and solid-state research being established [2] - China is positioned to lead in the AI4S market due to its comprehensive chemical manufacturing industry and supply chain, with key companies like 泰控股 and 志特新材 emerging as leaders [2][46] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in New Industries - The AI hardware sector, particularly in light connections, power supplies, and liquid cooling, presents significant investment opportunities, with companies like 东阳光 recommended for attention [3] - The solid-state battery market is expected to undergo transformation driven by demand from emerging sectors, with large-scale commercialization anticipated from 2026 onwards [3] - The robotics sector, particularly with tendon-driven systems, is gaining traction, with significant market potential as the technology matures [3][50] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side of the chemical industry is currently in a downward trend, with construction project growth rates at historically low levels [9][10] - Demand for chemical products has been affected by various external factors, including trade tensions and geopolitical events, but the overall demand is stabilizing as tariff disturbances recede [13] - The global chemical product sales accounted for 45% of the total market, indicating a strong position in the global supply chain [13] Group 5: Oil Market Impact - The oil market is facing increasing supply pressures, with predictions of excess supply in 2025, leading to a potential decline in oil prices [17][20] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to create uncertainty in oil prices, which directly impacts the profitability of the chemical sector [28][32] - The OPEC+ group is expected to increase production, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the oil market [25]