证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 26 年 月 日 正邦科技（002157.SZ） 产能加速恢复，主业实现盈利 公司公告 2024 年度报告和 2025 年第一季度报告。2024 年公司实现收 入88.7亿元，同比增长26.86%；归母净利润2.16亿元，同比减少97.46%； 扣非归母净利润-3.33 亿元，同比增长 93.19%。2025 年第一季度公司实 现收入 30.02 亿元，同比增长 108.22%；归母净利润 1.71 亿元，同比增 长 449.58%；扣非归母净利润 0.26 亿元，同比增长 108.3%。 产能恢复主业实现盈利，负债清偿费用下降。拆分 2025 年第一季度业绩 来看，公司非经常性损益（主要为债务重组损益）贡献 1.4 亿元、减值及 资产处置影响-1.6 亿元，加回少损影响的 0.6 亿元，公司主营业务实现的 利润在 1.3 亿元，伴随产能恢复，主业已恢复盈利能力，同时公司负债率 持续下降，2025 年一季度资产负债率 44.9%，环比下降 1.5pct；财务费 用率 1.46%，较 2023 年 11.3%水平明显下降。 生猪出栏量稳步提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 6.452 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.428 billion yuan, up 60.92% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.323 billion yuan, a decline of 11.07% year-on-year, and a net profit of 239 million yuan, down 19.09% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares for 2024 [1]. Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 1.69 percentage points to 61.04%, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 9.06 percentage points to 15.60% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin improved by 2.37 percentage points to 61.30% compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The company’s game business revenue grew by 3.66% to 4.662 billion yuan in 2024, with overseas revenue increasing by 12.84% to 4.906 billion yuan [3]. Product Development and Innovation - The company launched two new games, "Stellar Sanctuary" and "Next Agers," in overseas markets at the end of 2024, which are currently in the commercialization testing phase [3]. - The company is focusing on AI technology applications across various business areas, having applied for 367 patents in the AI field, with 208 patents granted [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.451 billion yuan, 1.681 billion yuan, and 1.888 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 13, and 12 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 4.41 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 420 million, down 42% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 1.05 billion, a year-on-year decline of 8.1%, and a net profit of 100 million, down 39% year-on-year [1]. - The company's automotive business is significantly influenced by the sales fluctuations of its largest customer, Tesla, which sold 496,000 and 337,000 vehicles in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [2]. - Emerging businesses, particularly in energy storage and robotics, are experiencing high growth, with energy storage revenue expected to exceed 234 million in 2024, representing over 200% year-on-year growth [2]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 is reported at 17.6% and 20.8%, respectively, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2 percentage points in Q1 2025 [3]. - The operating expense ratio for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 is 9.5% and 11.2%, respectively, reflecting adjustments in accounting and revenue scale fluctuations [3]. - The company is positioned to leverage its capabilities in die-casting, forging, and extrusion, with plans for new factories in Thailand and Mexico to enhance its global footprint [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 490 million, 562 million, and 654 million, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24.5, 21.4, and 18.4 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is steadily advancing transformation and optimization, with expectations for multi-brand contributions to incremental growth [1] - The main brand continues to deepen its focus on sensitive skin, while the multi-brand layout is expected to contribute additional growth [2] - Online channel optimization is improving operational efficiency, and offline channels are steadily expanding to reach more customers [3] - The brand matrix is essentially complete, and the main brand is continuously optimizing its product structure, with self-research and investment in multi-brands poised to contribute to a second growth peak [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 5.736 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 503 million yuan, a decrease of 33.53% [1] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at approximately 73.74% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company is expected to report revenue of 949 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.51%, with a net profit of 28 million yuan, a decrease of 83.97% [1] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 6.368 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits of 751 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery in profitability [4] Brand and Product Performance Summary - The skincare category accounts for 84.13% of the company's self-owned brand sales, with the main brand Winona performing well in the sensitive skin segment [2] - Winona Baby brand achieved revenue of 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.03%, while the Aikeman brand saw revenue growth of 65.59% [2] - The company is focusing on private domain member operations, achieving high repurchase rates, particularly among the 18-30 age group targeted by the Beifuting brand [2] Channel Strategy Summary - The company’s online, OMO, and offline channels account for 68.55%, 9.13%, and 22.32% of its main business, respectively [3] - Online sales from major platforms such as Alibaba and Douyin have shown varied performance, with Douyin sales increasing by 31% [3] - The company has expanded its offline distribution, covering over 129,000 pharmacy stores nationwide and opening 179 new brand stores [3] Future Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 6.368 billion yuan, 7.198 billion yuan, and 8.200 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to recover to 751 million yuan, 924 million yuan, and 1.031 billion yuan [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on expected performance over the next three years [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue for 2024, with a total of 15.65 billion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year, and a significant drop in net profit by 78.1% to 380 million yuan [1][4]. - The glass industry is facing challenges due to insufficient demand in the real estate sector, leading to a continuous decline in float glass prices [2][4]. - The photovoltaic glass segment saw a significant increase in revenue by 68.6% to 5.75 billion yuan in 2024, but the profit margin decreased due to falling prices [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 15.65 billion yuan, with a net profit of 380 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 78.1% [1][5]. - The float glass segment sold 107 million heavy boxes, down 6.4% year-on-year, with an average price of 64.3 yuan per heavy box, a decrease of 19.2% [2][4]. - The photovoltaic glass segment achieved a sales volume of 430 million square meters, up 124.0% year-on-year, but the average price fell to 13.2 yuan per square meter, down 24.7% [3][4]. Market Outlook - The float glass prices are expected to remain low until supply and demand are balanced, which may take time due to ongoing production capacity increases [2][4]. - The photovoltaic glass market is showing signs of recovery, but there may be pressure on prices as demand stabilizes and production ramps up [3][4]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 15.5%, down 9.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price declines in both float and photovoltaic glass [4][5]. - The net profit margin decreased to 1.7%, reflecting the impact of reduced gross margins and asset impairment losses totaling 257 million yuan [4][5]. Future Projections - The company is projected to recover with net profits of 829 million yuan, 1.1 billion yuan, and 1.65 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 41.4% [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has shown stable growth with an increase in net profit margin, reporting a revenue of 5.36 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a net profit of 790 million yuan, up 18.2% year-on-year [1][4] - The first quarter of 2025 continued the trend of steady growth, with revenue of 1.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 11.9% year-on-year [2][4] - The company plans to achieve a revenue of 5.47 billion yuan in 2025, representing a cautious year-on-year growth of 2% [4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.36 billion yuan, with a net profit of 790 million yuan, and a dividend payout ratio of approximately 63.9%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][4] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant improvement in product structure, leading to a gross margin increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s financial forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate an expected diluted EPS of 0.98, 1.10, and 1.24 yuan per share, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 16, and 14 times [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is steadily advancing its coal-electricity integration strategy, with a dividend yield of 6.7% [9] - The coal business has shown growth in production and sales, with significant cost control measures in place [2] - The acquisition of thermal power assets from Shaanxi Coal Power Group has enhanced performance, supporting the coal-electricity integrated development [3] - The company possesses significant resource reserves, with a total coal reserve of 1.7931 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 1.0246 billion tons, ensuring over 70 years of mining life [9] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 184.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.21% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 40.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.30%, and a net profit of 4.805 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.23% [1] - The company’s coal production in 2024 reached 170.48 million tons, up 4.13% year-on-year, with coal sales increasing by 9.13% to 258.43 million tons [9] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 561 yuan/ton, down 8.50% year-on-year [9] Cost Management - The cost of self-produced coal in 2024 was 260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, while the comprehensive cost per ton of coal was 414 yuan, an increase of 2.8% [9] - The company has effectively reduced costs in various areas, including a decrease in material costs and related taxes [9] Future Outlook - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be 18.717 billion yuan, with projected P/E ratios of 10.4X, 9.8X, and 9.3X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9] - The company plans to accelerate resource acquisition and development, particularly in high-quality coal resources [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qilu Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - Qilu Bank reported a revenue of 12.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.55%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5 billion yuan, up 17.77% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 3.2 billion yuan, growing 4.72% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.4 billion yuan, an increase of 16.47% year-on-year [1][10] - The bank's asset quality continues to improve, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.17% and a provision coverage ratio of 324.06% as of Q1 2025, showing a decrease of 2 basis points and an increase of 1.7 percentage points respectively compared to the end of the previous year [1][4] Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, net interest income grew by 7.89% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline in net interest margin, which was 1.51% in 2024, down 3 basis points from the second half of 2024. The decline in interest margin is attributed to significant improvements in the cost of liabilities [2] - Fee and commission income increased by 8.62% year-on-year, while other non-interest income decreased by 13.96% year-on-year, influenced by market fluctuations [3] - The bank's total assets and loans reached 716.4 billion yuan and 357.7 billion yuan respectively by the end of Q1 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 14.65% and 12.60% [5][10] Asset Quality - The NPL generation rate further declined in Q1 2025, with the NPL ratio at 1.17% and the attention ratio at 1.03%, indicating ongoing improvement in asset quality [4] - The NPL ratio for corporate loans decreased significantly, while personal loan NPLs saw a slight increase due to macroeconomic pressures [4] Financial Metrics - The bank's dividend payout ratio increased to 27.62% in 2024 from 26.73% in 2023, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.19 yuan, with a net profit growth forecast of 15.83% [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company experienced a significant recovery in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 2.434 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.49% [2] - The company's 2024 net profit was 7.362 billion yuan, a decrease of 38.36% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than the industry average, indicating resilience [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and deepening its international strategy, with plans to invest approximately 7.23 billion yuan in a joint venture in Saudi Arabia [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 322.116 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, and a basic earnings per share of 0.34 yuan, down 37.04% [1] - The sales gross margin for Q1 2025 was 7.22%, showing a recovery trend compared to previous quarters [2] - The company has successfully reduced costs by 7.43 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, exceeding its annual target [4] Product and Market Strategy - The company produced 51.41 million tons of steel in 2024, a decrease of 1.0% year-on-year, but its high-value product sales increased by 9.6% [3] - The company is expanding its production capacity for high-value products, including non-oriented silicon steel and oriented silicon steel, which is expected to enhance its profitability [3] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.10 yuan per share for the second half of 2024, with a total cash dividend amounting to approximately 4.516 billion yuan, representing 61.34% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 713 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.75%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 272 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.24% year-on-year [1] - The company benefits from cost advantages due to a significant decrease in the price of raw materials, specifically a 31% year-on-year drop in the purchase price of the main ingredient, green cabbage [1] - The company is pursuing a dual strategy of organic growth and external acquisitions, with plans to acquire a 51% stake in Sichuan Weizimei Food Technology Co., which specializes in compound seasonings and prepared dishes [2][3] - The addition of Weizimei is expected to enhance the company's product categories and distribution channels, contributing to its long-term growth strategy [2][3] Financial Summary - The company's gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 55.96%, an increase of 3.85 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost reductions from lower raw material prices [1] - The report forecasts that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will grow by 8.5%, 8.2%, and 7.9% in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reaching 870 million, 940 million, and 1,010 million yuan [3] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 2.579 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [4]