证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 31 年 月 日 宏观政策坚持稳中求进的基调，整体保持定力，但也未排除因应环境变化的增 量政策。本次会议在宏观政策上继续强调"稳"，我们认为下半年宏观政策取 向可能并非强刺激，但会议提出""增强活性预见性预"""时加力力"指向向 果情况恶化，可能会有进一步积极的动作。具体来看，会议提出"要落实落细 更力积极的财政政策和时度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应"，表述从此 前"用足用好"改为"落实落细"，可能向向政策更侧重"提质"。虽然没有直 接提到降准降息，但提到"促进社会综合融资成本下行"，我们认为下半年引 导 LPR 小幅下降仍可期待。 房地产相关表述有所精简，并不代表房地产不重要，未来仍有待提升政策支持 力度。相较 2024 年数次政治局会议，本次会议关于房地产相关表述有所精简， 省略了 4 月会议诸 稳地产"房地产收储等相关表述。 但我们认为这并不代 表房地产不重要。2025 年以来，新房销售延续负增，量能处于近年最低水平， 不论是量"价均难言已实现稳地产的目标。低迷的市场持续影响房企拿地"开 工"施工等向标，对房地产开发投资乃至于经济 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the importance of geopolitical factors and AI as catalysts for investment opportunities in overseas markets [1][2] - The upcoming release of OpenAI's GPT-5 is expected to enhance AI capabilities across various applications, potentially impacting multiple sectors [3][10] - The report recommends a diversified portfolio of stocks, focusing on companies with strong growth potential in AI, consumer goods, and real estate [4][20] Recent Key Events - The third round of US-China trade talks took place in Sweden, with significant global attention on the outcomes [1][8] - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC 2025) in Shanghai gathered over 1,572 leaders and scholars to discuss the future of AI [2][9] - The H20 chip export ban was lifted, allowing for renewed trade with China, which could influence tech companies [2][9] Market Situation - The Hong Kong and US stock markets saw significant gains in July, with the Hang Seng Index rising from 24,072 points to 25,524 points, a 6.0% increase [11] - Net inflows from southbound trading reached 110.8 billion HKD in July, indicating strong investor interest in Hong Kong stocks [12][13] Current Portfolio Recommendations - **Pop Mart (9992.HK)**: Strong growth in overseas business with a 475%-480% increase in international revenue in Q1 2025 [21][22] - **Jintai Holdings (2228.HK)**: Positioned as a leader in AI for Science, with significant growth potential in the pharmaceutical sector [26][27] - **China Qinfa (0866.HK)**: Improved balance sheet with a net profit increase of 150.5% in 2024, driven by loan restructuring [30][33] - **Greentown China (3900.HK)**: Despite a decline in profits, the company is expected to stabilize and lead the industry due to strong land acquisition strategies [36][39] - **Alibaba (9988.HK)**: Revenue growth of 7% in Q4 2025, with a strong focus on AI and cloud services [40][41] - **Kuaishou-W (1024.HK)**: Significant growth in e-commerce and advertising revenue, driven by innovative marketing strategies [44][46] - **Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK)**: Record revenue of 111.3 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a strong performance in both mobile and AIOT sectors [47]

Group 1: PMI Trends - July manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a contraction for the fourth consecutive month[2] - Non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1%, a decline of 0.4 percentage points, with service and construction sectors dropping by 0.1 and 2.2 percentage points respectively[2] - Composite PMI output index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.2%, suggesting a slowdown in overall economic expansion[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Signals - July PMI production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating continued expansion but with weakening demand[3] - New orders index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, entering contraction territory, with new export orders down by 0.6 percentage points[3] - New export orders index dropped to 47.1%, remaining in contraction, while import orders held steady at 47.8%[3] Group 3: Price and Employment Insights - Price indices rebounded, with raw material and factory price indices rising by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively, indicating a narrowing decline in PPI[4] - Employment pressure eased slightly, with manufacturing, service, and construction employment indices increasing by 0.1, 0.0, and 1.0 percentage points respectively[4] - Service sector PMI fell to 50.0%, while construction PMI dropped 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, the second-lowest this year[6] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The July Politburo meeting indicated a focus on policy implementation, with potential new policies expected but not strong stimulus measures[6] - Economic pressures are anticipated to increase in the second half of the year, particularly in August and September, due to prior "export rush" effects and short-term contraction[6] - Continued monitoring of US-China trade negotiations is advised, as potential developments may impact market conditions[6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The scale of money market funds rebounded seasonally in Q2 2025, and the growth rate picked up due to the increased yield advantage over deposits [2][13][18]. - The yield of money market funds may continue to decline, and the scale growth may slow down in the future [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market Fund Scale Changes - In Q2 2025, the net asset value of money market funds reached 14.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 904.6 billion yuan from the previous quarter and 205.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The scale rebounded seasonally [2][13]. - The year-on-year growth rate of the net asset value of money market funds rose from 6.7% in March to 7.9% in June. The average seven-day annualized yield of all money market funds decreased from 1.45% in March to 1.34% in June, a decrease of 11.17 bps. The decline in the listed deposit rates in Q2 was about 5 - 25 bps. The yield advantage of money market funds over deposits increased, driving the scale growth [2][18]. - In Q2, the spread between the yields of funds, certificates of deposit, and money market funds fluctuated and declined. Considering the tax advantages of money market funds, the motivation for institutional investors to subscribe for money market funds may have increased [3][21][22]. 3.2 Money Market Fund Yield Interval Distribution - The yield distribution interval of money market funds continued to shift downward. In Q2, more money market funds had yields below 1.4%, accounting for 40%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous quarter. The average yields of all money market funds in April - June were 1.42%, 1.35%, and 1.34% respectively. The easing of funds in Q2 accelerated the decline in money market fund yields [4][26]. 3.3 Money Market Fund Institutional Behavior Changes - In Q2, money market funds significantly increased their holdings of deposits, and the deposit ratio rebounded significantly. They also increased their bond holdings, but the bond ratio decreased. The proportion of bonds decreased by 2.52% to 54.05%, and the deposit ratio rebounded by 5.62% to 26.97%. Among the bond structure, money market funds increased their holdings of certificates of deposit by 34.59 billion yuan, and the proportion of inter - bank certificates of deposit held by money market funds in the market value of bond investments increased to 85.15% [4][29]. - In Q2, with the easing of funds, money market funds extended their durations and increased leverage. The average remaining maturity of the investment portfolio at the end of Q2 was 83.16 days, 7.50 days longer than the previous quarter, and the average leverage ratio was 105.81%, an increase of 1.85% from the previous quarter. The duration returned to a high level, and the leverage was at a neutral level [5][34]. 3.4 Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Fund Scale Changes - In Q2 2025, the scale of inter - bank certificate of deposit funds increased slightly by 640 million yuan to 125.8 billion yuan. The number increased to 101, and the average scale per fund decreased from 2.149 billion yuan at the end of 2023 to 1.246 billion yuan in Q2 [42].

Group 1: Fund Size and Growth - The total net asset value of four types of bond funds reached 9.26 trillion yuan in Q2 2025, an increase of 561.7 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter[14] - The medium- and long-term pure bond funds grew by 269.2 billion yuan to 6.46 trillion yuan, while short-term pure bond funds increased by 172.4 billion yuan to 1.14 trillion yuan[14] - The net asset values of primary and secondary bond funds were 850.2 billion yuan and 807.7 billion yuan, respectively, with increases of 81.6 billion yuan and 38.5 billion yuan from the previous quarter[14] Group 2: Asset Allocation and Bond Holdings - Bond positions increased significantly, with a net purchase of 800.7 billion yuan in Q2 2025 after a reduction of 458.4 billion yuan in Q1[21] - The market value of bonds held by medium- and long-term pure bond funds was 7.76 trillion yuan, while short-term pure bond funds held 1.28 trillion yuan, reflecting increases of 396.2 billion yuan and 224.7 billion yuan, respectively[21] - The proportion of bond holdings in total assets for the four types of bond funds increased, with medium- and long-term pure bond funds at 97.75% and short-term pure bond funds at 97.81%[21] Group 3: Leverage and Duration - The average leverage ratios for medium- and long-term pure bond funds, short-term pure bond funds, primary bond funds, and secondary bond funds were 120%, 114%, 117%, and 114%, respectively, showing increases from the previous quarter[26] - The average duration of medium- and long-term interest rate bond funds rose by 0.81 years to 4.23 years, while medium- and long-term credit bond funds increased by 0.94 years to 3.42 years, marking the largest single-period increase on record[6] Group 4: Credit Quality and Composition - The proportion of high-rated credit bonds increased, with AAA-rated bonds in medium- and long-term pure bond funds rising by 1.23 percentage points to 96.10%[59] - The market value of credit bonds held by medium- and long-term pure bond funds was 3.70 trillion yuan, with an increase of 206.2 billion yuan, while short-term pure bond funds held 1.1 trillion yuan in credit bonds, reflecting an increase of 184.7 billion yuan[40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of bond funds rebounded in Q2 2025, with significant growth in pure - bond funds and slight increases in first - and second - tier bond funds [1][8]. - In terms of asset allocation, bond positions increased, and bond funds added leverage in Q2 2025 [2][13]. - The duration of medium - and long - term bonds climbed significantly in Q2 2025, and both medium - and long - term and medium - and short - term bond funds showed an upward trend in duration [3]. - Bond funds increased their holdings of both credit bonds and interest - rate bonds in Q2 2025 [3][28]. - In the heavy - position bonds, the proportion of high - grade bonds increased [4][51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Fund Scale Rebounds, Pure - Bond Fund Scale Increases Significantly - In Q2 2025, the total net asset value of four types of bond funds was 9.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 561.7 billion yuan from the previous quarter. Among them, the scale of pure - bond funds expanded significantly, with medium - and long - term pure - bond funds increasing by 269.2 billion yuan to 6.46 trillion yuan, and short - term pure - bond funds increasing by 172.4 billion yuan to 1.14 trillion yuan. The scale of first - and second - tier bond funds increased slightly, with first - tier bond funds reaching 850.2 billion yuan and second - tier bond funds reaching 807.7 billion yuan, increasing by 81.6 billion yuan and 38.5 billion yuan respectively compared to Q1 [1][8]. 3.2 Asset Structure: Bond Positions Rise - Overall, the four types of bond funds reduced their bond holdings by 458.4 billion yuan in Q1 and significantly increased their bond holdings by 800.7 billion yuan in Q2. As of Q2, the market values of bonds held by medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, short - term pure - bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds were 7.76 trillion yuan, 1.28 trillion yuan, 961.1 billion yuan, and 796.1 billion yuan respectively, with increases of 396.2 billion yuan, 224.7 billion yuan, 125.3 billion yuan, and 54.5 billion yuan compared to Q1. The proportions of bond market values to total asset values were 97.75%, 97.81%, 96.64%, and 84.75% respectively, increasing by 0.25pct, 0.60pct, 0.37pct, and 0.31pct compared to Q1 [2][13]. 3.3 Funds Eased in Q2, Adding Leverage and Extending Duration - In Q2 2025, the arithmetic average leverage ratios of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, short - term pure - bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds were 120%, 114%, 117%, and 114% respectively, increasing by 3.22pct, 2.36pct, 3.97pct, and 1.79pct compared to Q1, showing an overall trend of adding leverage [2][16]. - In Q2 2025, the average duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds increased by 0.81 years to 4.23 years, and that of medium - and long - term credit bond funds increased by 0.94 years to 3.42 years. The average duration of medium - and short - term interest - rate bond funds increased by 0.19 years to 1.50 years, and that of medium - and short - term credit bond funds increased by 0.16 years to 1.08 years [3][17]. - The change in bond fund duration is consistent with the change in the average bond issuance term. As the average bond issuance term increases, the duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate and credit bond funds also extends [19]. 3.4 Bond Type Portfolio: Both Credit Bonds and Interest - Rate Bonds are Increased - Medium - and long - term pure - bond funds mainly hold interest - rate bonds, while short - term pure - bond funds mainly hold credit bonds. In Q2 2025, pure - bond funds increased their holdings of both interest - rate and credit bonds. The four types of bond funds significantly increased their credit bond holdings by 503 billion yuan and interest - rate bond holdings by 276.4 billion yuan. As of Q2 2025, medium - and long - term pure - bond funds held 3.7 trillion yuan of credit bonds and 3.88 trillion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 206.2 billion yuan and 174.2 billion yuan respectively compared to Q1. Short - term pure - bond funds held 1.1 trillion yuan of credit bonds and 177.2 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 184.7 billion yuan and 39.3 billion yuan respectively compared to the end of the previous quarter [3][28]. - First - and second - tier bond funds also increased their holdings of credit and interest - rate bonds. At the end of Q2, first - tier bond funds held 688.9 billion yuan of credit bonds and 185.3 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 78.6 billion yuan and 37.4 billion yuan respectively compared to the end of the previous quarter. Second - tier bond funds held 538.1 billion yuan of credit bonds and 160.1 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 33.6 billion yuan and 25.4 billion yuan respectively compared to the end of the previous quarter [28]. - In Q2, the proportion of policy - financial bonds in the market value of interest - rate bonds decreased for all types of bond funds [43]. 3.5 Heavy - Position Bond Analysis: The Proportion of High - Grade Bonds Increases - In Q2 2025, among the heavy - position bonds of the four types of pure - bond funds and mixed first - and second - tier bond funds, interest - rate bonds had the highest proportion at 72.38%, followed by financial bonds at 15.97%, while the proportions of industrial and urban investment bonds were relatively small. Compared to Q1, the proportions of interest - rate bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit in heavy - position bonds increased, while those of urban investment bonds, financial bonds, and industrial bonds decreased [4][48]. - In Q2 2025, the proportion of high - grade bonds in the heavy - position credit bonds of pure - bond and first - tier bond funds increased. In medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds increased by 1.23pct to 96.10%, and that of AA + - rated bonds decreased by 1.11pct to 3.27%. In short - term pure - bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds increased by 1.94pct to 94.75%, and that of AA + - rated bonds decreased by 1.08pct to 3.80%. In first - tier bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds increased by 1.70pct to 93.89%, and that of AA + - rated bonds decreased by 1.52pct to 5.32%. In second - tier bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds decreased by 0.21pct to 97.68% [4][51]. - Among heavy - position urban investment bonds, the top four provinces or regions where the four types of public bond funds held the most urban investment bonds in Q2 2025 were Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hubei, and Hunan. Compared to Q1, urban investment bonds in Shandong were increased, while those in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Hunan were significantly reduced [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, the scale of money market funds rebounded seasonally, and the growth rate of the scale picked up due to the increase in the relative income advantage over deposits. However, the yield of money market funds is expected to continue to decline, and the scale growth may slow down [2][5]. - In Q2, the yield spread between funds, certificates of deposit, and money market funds fluctuated and declined, which may enhance institutional investors' motivation to subscribe for money market funds [3]. - The yield distribution range of money market funds continued to move down, and the loosening of funds in Q2 accelerated the decline in yields [3]. - In Q2, money market funds significantly increased their holdings of deposits, and the proportion of deposits rebounded significantly. They also increased their holdings of bonds, but the proportion of bonds decreased. In addition, money market funds extended their durations and increased leverage [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Money Market Fund Scale Changes - In Q2 2025, the asset net value of money market funds reached 14.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 90.46 billion yuan from the previous quarter and a year - on - year increase of 20.59 billion yuan. The scale rebounded seasonally [9]. - The year - on - year growth rate of the asset net value of money market funds rose from 6.7% in March to 7.9% in June. The average seven - day annualized yield of money market funds in the whole market decreased from 1.45% in March to 1.34% in June, a decrease of 11.17 bps. The yield advantage of money market funds over deposits increased, which promoted the rebound of the scale growth rate [12]. - In Q2, the yield spread between funds, certificates of deposit, and money market funds fluctuated and declined. Considering the tax advantages of money market funds, institutional investors' motivation to subscribe for money market funds may have increased [15][18]. Money Market Fund Yield Interval Distribution - In Q2, more money market funds had yields below 1.4%, accounting for 40%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous quarter. The average yields of money market funds in the whole market from April to June were 1.42%, 1.35%, and 1.34% respectively. The loosening of funds in Q2 accelerated the decline in yields [22]. Money Market Fund Institutional Behavior Changes - In Q2, money market funds increased their bond holdings by 36.96 billion yuan and their deposit holdings by 1.14 trillion yuan. The bond proportion decreased by 2.52% to 54.05%, and the deposit proportion rebounded by 5.62% to 26.97%. Among the bonds, money market funds increased their holdings of certificates of deposit by 34.59 billion yuan, and the proportion of inter - bank certificates of deposit in the market value of bond investments increased to 85.15% [4][26]. - At the end of Q2, the average remaining maturity of the investment portfolio of money market funds was 83.16 days, 7.50 days longer than the previous quarter; the average leverage ratio was 105.81%, an increase of 1.85% from the previous quarter. The duration returned to a high level, and the leverage was at a neutral level [4][29]. Changes in the Scale of Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Funds - In Q2 2025, the scale of inter - bank certificate of deposit funds increased slightly by 640 million yuan to 125.8 billion yuan. The number increased to 101, and the average scale per fund decreased from 2.149 billion yuan at the end of 2023 to 1.246 billion yuan in Q2 [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant performance acceleration in Q2, with a non-recurring profit growth rate of 36%, driven by enhanced management and cost control [1]. - New signed orders in Q2 increased by 42% year-on-year, with a strong backlog of orders providing robust support for future performance [2]. - Key projects in Xinjiang's coal chemical sector are progressing, indicating potential for accelerated EPC order releases [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.78 billion yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 240 million yuan, up 15% [1]. - The quarterly breakdown shows Q1 revenue of 2.07 billion yuan (up 13%) and Q2 revenue of 2.71 billion yuan (up 6%) [1]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved year-on-year, contributing to the faster growth of non-recurring profits [1]. Order Book and Market Position - The company signed new orders worth 5.9 billion yuan in Q2, with design and engineering contracts seeing substantial growth [2]. - The total new signed orders for H1 2025 reached 7.78 billion yuan, a 24% increase, achieving 35% of the annual target [2]. - The company has a strong order backlog of 51.33 billion yuan, which is 5.8 times the expected revenue for 2024, indicating solid future revenue support [2]. Project Developments - Significant progress has been made on key projects in Xinjiang, with total planned investments exceeding 800 billion yuan [3]. - Recent approvals and bidding activities for major projects suggest that EPC orders are likely to be released in a concentrated manner [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit as a leading player in coal chemical construction amid increasing domestic energy demands [3]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 480 million yuan, 550 million yuan, and 640 million yuan respectively, each reflecting a 16% growth [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are projected to be 0.67 yuan, 0.78 yuan, and 0.91 yuan [4].

Economic Performance - The US Q2 GDP growth rate was 3.0%, exceeding expectations of 2.4% and rebounding from a previous value of -0.5%[1] - Year-on-year GDP growth remained stable at 2.0%, consistent with the previous value[1] - PCE inflation for Q2 was 2.1%, lower than the expected 2.9% and previous 3.7%[1] Consumption and Investment - Private consumption contributed a 1.0% increase to the GDP, up from 0.3%, with durable goods and services consumption rising, while non-durable goods saw a slight decline[2] - Private investment's contribution dropped from 3.9% to -3.1%, with inventory changes negatively impacting the GDP by -3.2%[2] - Government spending's contribution improved from -0.1% to 0.1%, while net exports shifted from -4.6% to 5.0%[2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, but two board members voted against this decision advocating for a 25 basis point cut[3] - This marked the first instance in over 30 years where two board members opposed a decision, indicating potential future leadership changes within the Fed[3] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's meeting, US Treasury yields and the dollar rose, while stock markets and gold prices fell[4] - The implied probability of a rate cut in September dropped from 70% to 44%, with expectations for only one rate cut remaining in 2025[4] Economic Outlook - The US economy is likely to experience a soft landing, with inflation risks still present, suggesting caution regarding expectations for rate cuts[5] - The current economic conditions, supported by various fiscal measures, indicate that the Fed will prioritize inflation control over aggressive rate cuts in the near term[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on July 30 analyzed the current economic situation and deployed economic work for the second half of the year. The subsequent policy direction is expected to further support the economy, and the bond market is expected to enter a recovery phase [11][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - The Political Bureau's statement on the economy is positive, with GDP growing by 5.4% and 5.2% year-on-year in Q1 and Q2 respectively, exceeding the annual target of around 5%. However, the economy still faces structural issues, and policies will further support the economy to prevent systemic risks [11]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy continues to be proactive and may increase efforts at appropriate times. The issuance of government bonds in the first half of the year was rapid, and if the net financing rhythm from January to May is maintained, the annual issuance limit may be reached in August [2][12]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - The meeting adheres to a "moderately loose" monetary policy, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and lower the comprehensive social financing cost. Bank deposit rates may be further reduced in the second half of the year [3][13]. 3.4 Industry Clearance - The policy will continue to standardize market competition, specifically targeting over - capacity in key industries and regulating local government investment promotion behaviors [4][14]. 3.5 Consumption and Investment - Consumption policies will support both commodity and service consumption and expand the scope of service consumption support. The "Two - Major" construction will stimulate private investment, as the previous intensive issuance of government bonds did not lead to a rapid increase in infrastructure investment [5][15][17]. 3.6 Real Estate - Real estate policies will focus on stabilizing the market rather than stimulating it. "Urban renewal" may be an important measure to increase potential demand [6][18]. 3.7 Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to enter a recovery phase. With continuous liquidity and stable market expectations, 10 - year and 30 - year government bonds are expected to return to their pre - adjustment levels of 1.65% and 1.85% respectively [7][19].