事件：公司 2025 年上半年实现营业收入 13.7 亿元，同比增长 12%，实 现归母净利润 3.1 亿元，同比增长 12%，扣非归母净利润 3 亿元，同比增 长 13%。单 Q2 来看，实现营收 8.1 亿元，同比增长 5%，实现归母净利 润 1.7 亿元，同比增长 3%。 国际化战略加速落地，海外收入占比突破 20%。海外营收 2.8 亿元，同 比增长 26%，占比提升至 21%（较 24 全年占比提升 5 个百分点），增速 远超国内业务（国内业务营收 10.8 亿元，同比增长 9%，占比 79%）。 公司全球化布局进展顺利，印尼工厂全面投产，沙特工厂预计下半年可投 产，墨西哥工厂建设积极推进，且在阿联酋/孟加拉/埃及等设有制造工厂， 未来有望进军南非等区域。我们认为，公司积极拓展海外，依靠自身优质 产品能力有望逐步拓展到系统和生态集成交付模式，进一步提升全球市场 话语权，创造多个营收增长极，目前公司海外业务整体尚处于前期投资阶 段，未来释放利润后有望进一步增强公司盈利能力。 订单储备创新高，电网主业韧性凸显，智能终端下半年有望加速迭代。公 司上半年新签订单 16 亿元（同比+8%），在手订单 40 亿 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The restoration of VAT on some bonds is a one - time policy that does not affect the bond market trend. The new bond interest rate may increase by 2.8 - 5.4bps, and the new - old bond spread may be around 5.6 - 10.8bp [1][3] - The VAT restoration may increase total tax revenue by about 31.55 billion yuan. Banks' tax burden increase is the most obvious, and the tax scale increase of treasury bonds and local bonds is the most significant [2][16] - It is negative for newly - issued interest - rate bonds and newly - issued Tier 2 capital bonds, and positive for general credit bonds. It is beneficial for old bonds and negative for new bonds. Currently, the tax advantage of public funds in interest - rate bonds is strengthened, but there is a possibility of adjustment [3][18] - The central bank will optimize the bond market structure and institutional arrangements, and the tax system will be further optimized in the future. Whether the tax exemption advantage of public funds will be cancelled is a matter of future concern [4][19] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Tax Policy Adjustment - Since August 8, 2025, VAT will be restored on the interest income of newly - issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds after this date. The interest income of bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity [1][7] Bond Investment Tax Calculation - For general taxpayers, the VAT rate for bond investment is 6%, and the VAT and surcharges combined rate is 6.34%. The enterprise income tax rate is 25%, and assuming a 6% VAT rate, the enterprise income tax is 23.42% of the taxable interest or transfer spread [8] Previous Tax Preferences - Specific tax types: Interest income from treasury bonds and local government bonds is exempt from VAT and income tax; the income tax rate of railway bonds is halved; policy - financial bonds are exempt from individual income tax [9] - Specific institutions: Interest income from financial inter - bank transactions is exempt from VAT; public funds' interest income is exempt from income tax, and transfer income is exempt from VAT and income tax; asset management product managers use a simplified VAT calculation method [9] Post - adjustment Tax Rates - Public funds and other asset management products' VAT rate on interest income from newly - issued bonds after August 8, 2025 is 3.26%, while banks' self - operated investment in such bonds has a VAT rate of 6.34% [9][10] Impact on Different Institutions - It is generally negative for all types of institutions, with banks' self - operated tax cost increasing the most. The estimated VAT scale for banks' self - operated investment in newly - issued bonds is 232.73 billion yuan [14][15] Impact on Different Bond Types - Negative for newly - issued interest - rate bonds and newly - issued Tier 2 capital bonds, positive for general credit bonds. Negative for new bonds and positive for old bonds [3][18] Future Outlook - The central bank will optimize the bond market structure and institutional arrangements, and the tax system will be further optimized. Whether the tax exemption advantage of public funds will be cancelled needs to be continuously observed [4][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in its 2025 H1 results, with revenue reaching 999.1 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 117 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.18% [1]. - The integrated circuit analysis segment showed significant growth, with a revenue increase of 21.01%, driven by the rising demand in downstream industries [1]. - The company has demonstrated excellent cost control, with a decrease in expense ratios across various categories, contributing to its profitability [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025-2027, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.335 billion yuan, 2.659 billion yuan, and 2.992 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.3%, 13.8%, and 12.5% respectively [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 306 million yuan, 377 million yuan, and 445 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 33.5%, 23.0%, and 18.3% respectively [3][4]. - The company's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 27.2, 22.1, and 18.7 times [3][4]. Business Model and Market Position - The company has established a unique business model that integrates testing equipment and services, creating a high technical barrier and a comprehensive one-stop testing service platform [2]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid development of new technologies such as 5G and the Internet of Things, which are expected to drive future growth [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [5][37] Core Viewpoints - The market heat has declined in July, with sales showing a significant year-on-year drop, reaching a six-year low for the same period [1][14] - The sales performance of top real estate companies varies, with some showing stability while others experience significant declines [4][33] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven market dynamics and suggests that 2025 will be dominated by policy influences [5][37] Summary by Sections July Market Performance - In July, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales amount of 211.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 37.7% [1][14] - From January to July, the top 100 companies recorded a total sales amount of 1.8639 trillion yuan, down 12.5% year-on-year [1][14] Sales by Company Tier - The sales decline is observed across all tiers, with the smallest drop in the TOP21-30 tier at 6.3% year-on-year, while the TOP10 tier saw a decline of 14.9% [2][16] - The sales threshold for the top 100 companies decreased significantly, with the threshold for the top 10 dropping from 52.65 billion yuan to 49.16 billion yuan, a decline of 6.6% [3][28] Performance of Leading Companies - Some leading state-owned and benchmark private enterprises showed stable sales, with Yuexiu Property achieving a year-on-year growth of 12.6% in July [4][33] - Among the top 40 companies, 11 reported positive year-on-year growth in July, with the best performer being Bangtai Group at 82.6% [4][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to several reasons, including the expectation of stronger policy support compared to previous years and the potential for quality companies to benefit from improved competitive dynamics [5][37] - Recommended stocks include Green Town China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Development among others [5][37]

Employment Data Summary - In July, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000[2] - The June non-farm data was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs over two months[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, matching expectations, and the labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, major U.S. stock indices fell: S&P 500 down 1.6%, Nasdaq down 2.2%, and Dow Jones down 1.2%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 14.6 basis points to 4.22%, while the dollar index fell by 1.4% to 98.7[3] - Gold prices surged by 2.2% to $3,362.6 per ounce[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased from 40% to 87%[3] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2023 rose from an average of 1.3 to 2.4 times, indicating at least two cuts are anticipated[3] Economic Assessment - The significant downward revision in non-farm data does not necessarily indicate an imminent recession, as high-frequency indicators remain strong[4] - The downward adjustments are attributed to government layoffs, increased immigration enforcement, and natural disasters affecting employment statistics[5] Seasonal Market Trends - Historically, August and September are weak months for overseas stock markets, with a potential shift to a risk-on environment if non-farm data improves in September or October[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.32 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6 million yuan, down 96.6% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 698 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.42%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 19 million yuan, a decrease of 73.75% year-on-year [1] - The company sold approximately 160 million broiler chicks in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with an average selling price of 2.4 yuan per chick, up about 0.1 yuan from Q1 2025 [1] - The report highlights a seasonal rebound in chick prices expected in Q3 2025, driven by market replenishment in the peak season of September and October [1] - The company experienced a loss of 6.46 million yuan in investment income in Q2 2025, primarily due to losses from its stake in Beidahuang Baoquanling Agriculture and Animal Husbandry [1] Financial Summary - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 200 million, 570 million, and 590 million yuan, representing year-on-year changes of -60.2%, +186.3%, and +2.6% respectively [2] - The estimated P/E ratio for 2026 is 17 times [2] - The financial indicators for 2025E show a revenue of 3.113 billion yuan, a net profit of 200 million yuan, and an EPS of 0.18 yuan per share [4]

Tax Policy Changes - On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting August 8, 2025[1] - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity, creating a "new and old distinction" in tax application[6] Reasons for Tax Resumption - The historical mission of the tax exemption policy has been completed, as the bond market has grown significantly, now ranking second globally[3] - The resumption aims to adjust the funding structure and prevent excessive liquidity from being trapped in interest-bearing bonds, thereby increasing fiscal revenue and alleviating fiscal pressure[4] Financial Impact - The short-term revenue from the resumption of VAT on interest income is estimated to be around 34 billion yuan[5] - The tax revenue is expected to increase further as the scale of new debt issuance expands over time[5] Market Implications - In the short term, the resumption of VAT is likely to push interest rates down and create pricing differences between new and old bonds[8] - Long-term effects may be bearish for interest-bearing bonds as the cost advantage diminishes, potentially shifting investment towards credit bonds and dividend assets[8] Market Trends - Since mid-July, bond market volatility has increased significantly, influenced by liquidity conditions and strong stock market performance[9] - The 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated, reaching a high of approximately 1.75%[9]

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 02 年 月 日 海康威视（002415.SZ） 半年报业绩扎实稳健，精细化管理带来高质量发展 事件：海康威视发布 2025 年半年报，2025H1 公司实现营业总收入 418.18 亿元，比上年同期增长 1.48%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 56.57 亿元，比上年同期增长 11.71%。 抵御外部不确定性，收入端与利润端仍然实现稳健成长，凸显公司经营实 力。2025 年上半年，全球经济复苏动力不均，外部不确定性依然突出；国 内稳经济政策多措并举，经济展现出一定韧性但能见度较低，企业与社会 数字化转型升级进程在波动起伏中前进。面对复杂多变的国内外环境，海 康威视坚持稳扎稳打，以积极、审慎的态度应对各种不确定性，2025H1 仍 旧实现营业总收入 1.48%的增长和归母净利润 11.71%的增长，凸显公司 经营的稳健性。 境外业务平稳增长，创新业务提供最重要增长动能。2025H1，境外主业同 比增长 6.9%，成长平稳；创新业务同比增长 13.9%，是公司当前主要分 业务中增长最快的部分，为公司提供最重要的成长动力源泉。 优化运营体 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in its civil construction business while accelerating its overseas expansion [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 13.57 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 10.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 560 million yuan, down 40.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively pursuing channel transformation and consolidating its waterproofing main business while exploring new growth avenues in mortar and overseas markets [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025: - Waterproof membranes: 5.513 billion yuan, down 8.8%, gross margin 22.6%, down 5.2 percentage points - Coatings: 3.946 billion yuan, down 17.1%, gross margin 36.5%, down 1.0 percentage points - Mortar powder: 1.996 billion yuan, down 6.2%, gross margin 26.6%, down 0.87 percentage points - Engineering construction: 849 million yuan, down 32.3% [2]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.4%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 4.0% for the first half of 2025, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Cash Flow and Dividend - As of June 30, 2025, the company's accounts receivable totaled 11.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.3% year-on-year, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to 4.57 billion yuan [3]. - The company announced a mid-year dividend plan of 9.25 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 2.21 billion yuan [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.206 billion yuan, 1.427 billion yuan, and 1.461 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.8, 20.1, and 19.7 [4].

Group 1 - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the bond market, with credit bonds experiencing a larger decline compared to interest rate bonds, particularly in the period from July 18 to July 25, where 3Y and above interest rate bonds rose by 7-9 basis points, while credit bonds fell by 8-12 basis points [1][8][11] - The primary reasons for the market decline include a rebound in equity and commodity prices, a tightening of the funding environment, and increased redemption pressure [1][11][21] - Following the market adjustment, the report suggests that the credit market may enter a slow recovery phase, with the "stock-bond seesaw" effect being a short-term disturbance rather than a long-term trend [2][21][25] Group 2 - The report highlights a seasonal characteristic in credit bond net financing, with supply expected to rise from June to August, followed by a decline in September as corporate financing needs weaken [3][25][26] - It notes that the recent adjustments in the credit bond ETF market have led to a slowdown in growth, with some ETFs experiencing a slight contraction in scale [2][15][19] - The report emphasizes that the current credit market is relatively weak, with significant volatility and limited space for narrowing credit spreads, particularly in the short to medium term [3][27]