Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1][12][16] Core Views - BYD achieved a significant revenue increase in 2024, with total revenue reaching 777.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 29.02%, and a net profit of 40.25 billion yuan, up 34.00% year-on-year [5][11] - The company maintains a high level of R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 54.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.7% [11][12] - New technology platforms launched in 2025, such as the "Tianshen Eye" intelligent driving system and the "Super e" platform, are expected to support sales growth [12][11] Financial Summary - In 2024, BYD's total sales volume reached 4.272 million units, a year-on-year increase of 41.3%, with overseas sales of passenger cars growing by 71.9% [11] - The company's revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 959.58 billion yuan, 1,126.16 billion yuan, and 1,266.28 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 51.09 billion yuan, 64.06 billion yuan, and 73.87 billion yuan [7][15] - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 19.4%, with a net margin of 5.2% [7][15] Sales and Production Insights - BYD's high-end brand Tengshi saw a slight decline in sales, with 126,000 units sold in 2024, down 1.4% year-on-year [12] - The company launched the Tengshi N9 SUV in March 2025, targeting competition with other high-end brands [12] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the new technology platforms and ongoing globalization strategies will further enhance BYD's profitability and market position [12][11] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 51.1 billion yuan and 64.1 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 73.9 billion yuan [12][15]

2025 年 3 月 25 日 2025 年 1-2 月财政数据点评 中央财政领衔发力 证券分析师 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090001 ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 事项： 2025 年 1-2 月，公共财政收入累计同比-1.6%，公共财政支出同比 3.4%，全国 政府性基金收入同比-10.7%，政府性基金支出同比 1.2%。 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 从 1-2 月财政数据来看，财政收入增长尽管受到春节错位等因素扰动，但 总体上仍受制于名义经济增长，土地收入继续减少产生持续拖累。财政支 出的亮点在于中央政府支出、以及民生领域支出有力增长。年初以来政府 债券发行以置换债和一般国债为主，地方项目专项债和超长期特别国债有 较大的提速空间，预计年内财政发力的连续性有望得到保障。随着外贸领 域冲击不确定性抬升，财政预计将提供较为有力的对冲，而货币政策的加 力配合有待落地。 公共财政收入增长放缓。其中， 税收收入对公共 ...

非银行金融 2025 年 03 月 25 日 行业点评 资负双驱，太平 2024 业绩亮眼 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 相关研究报告 中国太平发布 2024 年业绩，全年归母净利润 84.3 亿港元（YoY+36.2%），董 事会建议派发末期股息每股 0.35 港元。 平安观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 报 告 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告，如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告，请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的声明内容。 行 【平安证券】行业动态跟踪报告-非银行金融-险资 投资黄金试点开启，优化资产配置、分散投资风险- 强于大市 20250211 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-资负双驱，友 邦 2024 业绩增长强劲-强于大市 20250314 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-24H2 公募基金 保有量点评：股指型与债基表现亮眼，券商及第三 方市占率提升-强于大市 20250318 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-投资趋势性回 暖，众安 2024 承保盈利能力承压-强于大市 20250320 证券分析师 | 王维逸 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S10605 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - BYD achieved a revenue of 777.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.02%, with a net profit of 40.25 billion yuan, up 34.00% year-on-year [4] - The company maintains high R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 54.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.7% [7] - The company is focusing on high-end vehicle development, with the Tengshi brand as a key area for growth, despite facing challenges in the high-end market [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are 959.58 billion yuan and 1,126.16 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 23.5% and 17.4% [6] - Net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 51.09 billion yuan and 64.06 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.9% and 25.4% [6] - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 19.4%, with a net margin of 5.2% [6] Sales Performance - BYD's total vehicle sales reached 4.272 million units in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 41.3% [7] - The company reported a quarterly sales volume of 1.52 million units in Q4 2024, with a revenue of 274.9 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36.7% [7] R&D and Technological Advancements - BYD is set to launch new technologies in 2025, including the "Tianshen Eye" intelligent driving system and the "Super e" platform, which are expected to enhance product competitiveness [8] - The company is focusing on maintaining a strong presence in the economy car market while also pushing for advancements in high-end vehicle technology [8]

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The proposed tariffs include regional tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada, and 20% on China, affecting a total of $468.9 billion, equivalent to a 14.3% increase on all goods[3] - The basic framework estimates that these tariffs could raise the US CPI and PCE inflation rates by 2.7 and 2.9 percentage points, respectively[3] - The advanced framework predicts a CPI inflation increase of 1.24 percentage points from regional tariffs, with direct contributions from consumer goods and indirect contributions from intermediate goods[3] Group 2: Dynamic Equilibrium Model - The dynamic equilibrium model estimates a lower inflation impact of 0.49 percentage points for the 25% tariffs on Mexico and 10% on China, which is less than the advanced framework's estimate of 0.78 percentage points[3] - If trade partners retaliate, the inflation impact could double compared to scenarios without retaliation[3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Tariff Effects - Tariffs on five specific categories (automobiles, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and wood products) are expected to raise CPI and PCE inflation rates by 1.2 and 1.3 percentage points, respectively[3] - The effective tariff rate for these five categories is estimated at 6.3%, impacting 25.4% of total imports[20] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include misunderstandings of the tariff transmission path to US inflation and potential errors in mapping imported goods to CPI and PPI categories[3] - The uncertainty surrounding the implementation of Trump's tariff policies poses additional risks to inflation estimates[3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][43] Core Viewpoints - Spring sugar feedback is stable, and distributor profits are improving. Major liquor companies are increasing supply-side control, leading to a reduction in channel inventory. The prices of major products remain stable, and profits for distributors have improved compared to before the festival. Future demand is expected to recover with the implementation of consumer policies [6][8] - The food index has seen a decline, but the snack and catering sectors are expected to present investment opportunities. The snack industry continues to benefit from channel and product advantages, while the catering industry is stabilizing and may see slight recovery [6][11] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index has a cumulative decline of -4.06%. Major stocks with the largest declines include Jiuziyuan (-7.49%) and Luzhou Laojiao (-9.00%). The feedback from the spring sugar festival indicates stable sales and improved distributor profits [6][8] - Recommended investment lines include high-end liquor with strong demand, mid-range liquor with ongoing national expansion, and real estate liquor positioned in expanding price ranges [6][8] Food Industry - The food index has a cumulative decline of -3.31%. The top gainers include ST Jiajia (+8.42%) and Baiyang Co. (+5.67%), while the largest decliners include Qianhe Flavor Industry (-8.99%) and Huanlejia (-9.09%) [6][15] - The snack industry is experiencing a surge in new products, and investment opportunities are recommended in companies like Three Squirrels and Yanjinpuzi. The catering industry is expected to stabilize, with potential recovery in related sectors such as beer and condiments [6][11] Key Company Insights - Guizhou Moutai expects a 15.44% year-on-year increase in total revenue for 2024, with a stable operating rhythm despite a weak macroeconomic environment [8][41] - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue increase of 11.4% year-on-year for Q3 2024, with strong performance in mid-to-high-end liquor [8][41] - Anjiu Foods achieved a revenue of 110.77 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.84% [12][41] - Yanjin Beer reported a revenue of 128.46 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.47% [12][41]

如何理解央行调整MLF招标方式？ 3 本次MLF操作方式调整可以理解为"结构性降息" ，有助于降低银 行负债成本，缓释净息差压力 机构投标MLF通常参考市场化的融资成本，截至2025年3月24日，1年期 国有银行同业存单发行利率在1.93%，股份行约在1.94%，城商行和农商 行分别约在2.04%和1.98%。仅资金压力较大的城商行比此前2%的MLF利 率略高，而国有行和股份行大约低6-7BP。采用多重价位中标可以更好 反映机构差异化的资金需求，综合来看有利于降低银行负债成本，缓解 净息差压力。目前尚不清楚MLF的公告程度，是否公布招标价格区间 （类似买断逆的话则大概率不公布），甚至未来是否固定为类似本次的 操作前一日公布量，或者类似买断逆的月末公布操作量，而操作当日不 公布任何信息，都有待观察确认。 2025年3月25日 事件：2025年3月24日尾盘，央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕， 更好满足不同参与机构差异化资金需求，自本月起中期借贷便利 （MLF）将采用固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展操作。3月 25日将开展4500亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 1 MLF作为投放中期流动性的数量型工具定 ...

证券研究报告 OPEC+增减产计划主导现阶段油价中枢 原油月报： 2025年3月报 证券分析师 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号：S1060523110001 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524070002 石油石化 强于大市（维持） 2025年3月25日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 资料来源：EIA，平安证券研究所 3 * 核心观点：OPEC+增减产计划是现阶段油价主导因素 • 国际油价回顾：2025年3月油价呈V型走势。重点影响事件：1）3月3日，OPEC+发布声明称，将在4月把日产量提高13.8万桶，这将是 该组织两年多来首次宣布月度增产，OPEC增产态度的转变导致供应悲观预期再次被放大，对油价造成明显下行压力；2）3月11日， 美乌高层在沙特重启谈判，乌克兰表示愿意接受美国提出的立即实施为期30天的临时停火建议，俄乌和谈进程积极推进，同时美国 计划延长加沙停火协议时间，地缘风险趋缓；3）3月20日，美国发布对伊朗的新制裁，制裁对象包括亚洲一家独立炼油厂，以及向 这些炼油厂供应原油的船只；4）3月20日，欧佩克+表示，包括俄罗斯、伊拉克和哈萨克斯坦在内的七个国家发布了减产新计划，以 补偿超出配额的石油产量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Coal Energy (601898.SH) [4][8] Core Views - The company's performance demonstrates resilience as increased volume and cost reductions offset the impact of price declines. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 189.4 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 19.32 billion yuan, down 1.1% year-on-year [4][7][8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.92 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) for the year 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the total coal sales volume was 284.83 million tons, a minor decrease of 110,000 tons year-on-year. The total revenue from coal business was 160.71 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 24.7%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points [7] - The self-produced coal sales volume increased by 2.5% to 137.57 million tons, while the sales revenue from this segment was 77.30 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year [7] - The company’s coal chemical business revenue was 20.52 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.2% [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 184.70 billion yuan, 189.19 billion yuan, and 194.62 billion yuan respectively, with expected net profits of 18.51 billion yuan, 19.62 billion yuan, and 20.22 billion yuan [6][8] - The report anticipates a continued decline in coal prices, with the average price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal expected to drop by 11.4% in 2024 [8] Dividend Policy - The overall cash dividend rate increased from 30% in 2023 to 40.65% in 2024, with projected dividend yields of 5.7% for A shares and 7.7% for H shares based on the closing price on March 24, 2025 [8]