Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Following the announcement of the "package financial policy" in May, although there was a month-on-month recovery in June, the real estate market weakened again in July. The report emphasizes that while the market focuses on overall performance and policy expectations, certain "core areas and good properties" are stabilizing, with some quality real estate companies gradually emerging from the downturn and maintaining stable dividends. For instance, the expected year-on-year growth in net profit for Binjiang Group in H1 is between 40% and 70% [2][20] - The report highlights the potential acceleration of "good properties" and urban renewal as the central government emphasizes the transition of urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on quality improvement rather than quantity expansion [3][5] - The report notes an increase in long-term loans for residents, with June seeing a month-on-month increase of 335.3 billion, reflecting improvements in market transactions following the financial policy announcement. Additionally, private real estate companies are restarting overseas financing, with New Town Holdings issuing $300 million in senior notes at a high interest rate of 11.88% [2][19] Summary by Sections Policy - The central government has outlined a blueprint for urban work, emphasizing the acceleration of "good properties" and urban renewal. The focus is on transitioning urban development to quality improvement and promoting green, low-carbon cities [3][5][6] Market Performance - In July, the real estate market weakened again, with the average daily transaction volume of new homes in 50 key cities decreasing by 39% month-on-month. However, certain "core areas and good properties" are stabilizing, indicating strong potential demand for quality properties [2][23][30] Land Market - The land supply in June increased by 1.2% month-on-month, while the transaction area rose by 19.2%. The average premium rate for land transactions was 5.53%, indicating a continued high demand for quality land in core cities [36][31] Real Estate Companies - The report indicates that the land acquisition intensity of the top 50 real estate companies has increased year-on-year, with a focus on "certainty" in their acquisition strategies. The average land acquisition-to-sales ratio improved significantly in H1 [41][46] Stock Market - The real estate sector saw a month-on-month increase of 0.93% in June, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 2.5%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the real estate sector is 41.62, placing it in the 97.94 percentile of the past five years [47][50]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [24] Core Viewpoints - The performance of mid-to-high-end liquor is stabilizing, with companies exploring new sales channels. Major companies are expected to build momentum for future growth after a period of adjustment [6][8] - The beverage sector is witnessing a shift from "thirst-quenching" to "solution-oriented" consumption, leading to diverse functional demands. This trend is driving the development of new products such as functional drinks and health-oriented beverages [6][8] - The snack food segment is experiencing strong growth due to its ability to meet emotional value and cost-performance demands from consumers [6][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index has shown a cumulative increase of 1.30% this week, with notable stock performances from Luzhou Laojiao (+4.79%), Yanghe Brewery (+4.37%), and Jiu Gui Jiu (+3.64%) [6] - The first half of 2025 is expected to see a continued decline in revenue for major liquor companies, with Jiu Gui Jiu forecasting a 43% year-on-year drop in revenue [6][8] Food Industry - The food index has recorded a cumulative decrease of 0.13% this week, with top performers including Baihe Group (+5.73%) and Huang Shang Huang (+5.12%) [8] - The beverage market is diversifying, with companies launching new products to cater to specific consumer needs, such as electrolyte water and sugar-free tea [6][8] Key Company Earnings Forecast - Guizhou Moutai is projected to have an EPS of 68.64 yuan for 2024, with a PE ratio of 20.9, and is rated as "Recommended" [23] - Wuliangye is expected to have an EPS of 8.21 yuan for 2024, with a PE ratio of 15.1, also rated as "Recommended" [23] - The report highlights several companies with strong growth potential, including Three Squirrels and Dongpeng Beverage [6][23]

Group 1: Bank Liability Pressure - Since the second half of 2024, listed banks have shown stable asset expansion, primarily driven by a recovery in deposit growth, with a notable increase in bond and interbank financing[2][14]. - The structure of deposits has shifted, with personal deposits growing faster than corporate deposits, leading to an increase in the proportion of personal deposits in listed banks[2][20]. - Large banks face relatively greater pressure on their deposit growth compared to smaller banks, as their deposit structure is more balanced but has been significantly impacted by the cessation of manual interest supplementation in April 2024[2][26]. Group 2: Financial Investment Trends - The importance of financial investments has increased, with banks actively increasing their financial investments in response to rising interest rate spreads[3][34]. - Different types of banks exhibit varying preferences for trading and investment accounts, with rural commercial banks showing a higher trading attribute compared to state-owned banks[3][40]. - The contribution of financial investment to income has shown volatility, with a negative correlation observed between the 10-year government bond yield and the income contribution from financial investment trading[3][51]. Group 3: Net Interest Margin Dynamics - The net interest margin (NIM) is primarily influenced by the yield on interest-earning assets and the cost of interest-bearing liabilities, with the latter being more rigid[4][59]. - Recent trends indicate that the decline in loan yields and the rise in deposit costs have been the main factors compressing NIM in recent years[4][73]. - The central bank's monetary easing can temporarily boost NIM by lowering interbank financing costs and improving asset yields through enhanced investment and consumption willingness[4][74].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (预计6个月内，行业指数表现强于沪深300指数5%以上) [23] Core Views - The report maintains a positive outlook on the global computing power industry, supported by strong capital expenditures from tech giants like Meta, which plans to invest hundreds of billions in AI [4][6] - The performance forecast for the first half of 2025 shows an improving trend among listed companies in the computing sector, with significant reductions in losses for software development and IT services compared to the previous year [9][10] Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - Nvidia will resume sales of H20 in China, and Meta is set to invest significantly in AI, indicating robust support for the global AI computing power industry [5][6] - As of July 20, 2025, 76 A-share listed companies in the computing sector have released performance forecasts, showing a collective reduction in losses compared to the previous year [9] Performance Forecasts - The computing sector's listed companies are expected to report a total net profit of -2.354 billion (取业绩预告上下限的中值), a significant improvement from -4.059 billion in the same period last year [9][10] - By segment, the computing equipment sector is expected to report a net profit of 248 million, down 74.22% year-on-year, while software development and IT services are expected to show substantial reductions in losses [10] Key Company Announcements - Notable companies such as Taiji Co., Qiming Information, and Hengsheng Electronics have announced their performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with varying results in profitability and revenue [11][13] - For instance, Hengsheng Electronics expects a net profit of approximately 251 million, a year-on-year increase of about 740.95% [11] Market Performance Review - The computing industry index rose by 2.12% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.03 percentage points [14][16] - As of the last trading day, the computing industry had a P/E ratio of 54.2, with 235 out of 359 A-share stocks in the sector experiencing price increases [16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several sectors within the computing industry, including the Xinchuang sector, Huawei supply chain, AI sector, financial IT sector, and low-altitude economy, with specific company recommendations for each [19]

Key Insights - The report highlights three significant events in the global pension sector during the week, including the U.S. allowing 401(k) plans to invest in private equity, the University of California's decision to eliminate hedge fund allocations, and its consideration to increase investments in China [1][6][10]. Group 1: U.S. Pension Policy Changes - The U.S. government is set to allow 401(k) plans to invest in private equity, marking a major policy shift aimed at expanding retirement investment options for American workers [6][7]. - This policy change is expected to facilitate greater asset diversification for more Americans, potentially leading to wealth accumulation and successful retirements [6][7]. - Financial institutions are already preparing to launch retirement products that include private market components, indicating a proactive approach to this policy change [6][7]. Group 2: University of California's Investment Strategy - The University of California announced it will no longer allocate funds to hedge funds starting July 1, 2025, reallocating those funds to public equities instead [1][6][9]. - The decision stems from a lack of effective hedging during market downturns over the past two decades, with the university's hedge fund holdings significantly reduced from $4.4 billion at the end of 2022 to $892 million by June 2025 [8][9]. - The university's new investment policy increases the allocation to public equities from 53% to 57%, while reducing private market investments from 30% to 25% [8][9]. Group 3: Increased Focus on China - The University of California is considering expanding its international investment opportunities, particularly in China, despite previous cautious stances due to geopolitical tensions [10]. - The university acknowledges that while the U.S. remains a leader in disruptive technologies, China is developing its own independent systems in artificial intelligence and economic growth [10]. - The recent tariff reduction agreement between the U.S. and China is seen as a new opportunity for investment in the Chinese market [10]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - The University of California's pension fund achieved a net return of 12.7% for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, driven by strong performance in the U.S. stock market [12]. - CalPERS reported a preliminary net investment return of 11.6% for the 2025 fiscal year, with total managed assets reaching approximately $556.2 billion [12][13]. - Public equities represented about 39% of CalPERS' total assets, yielding a return of 16.8%, which was the highest among asset classes [13][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in prices across the photovoltaic industry chain and an accelerated overseas expansion by wind turbine manufacturers [2]. - The wind power index has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.14% compared to a 1.23% drop in the latter [5][12]. - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a notable price recovery, driven by policy measures aimed at curbing excessive competition [6]. Summary by Sections Wind Power: Accelerated Overseas Expansion of Turbine Manufacturers - Domestic turbine manufacturers secured over 34GW of international orders in 2024, with 10.23GW obtained in the first half of 2025 [6][11]. - The export volume of wind turbines from China is expected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 71.9% in 2024 and a further 43.2% in Q1 2025 [6][11]. - Companies like Mingyang focus on the European market, while Envision Energy targets India and other global markets [6][11]. Photovoltaics: Significant Price Recovery in the Industry Chain - The prices of polysilicon and monocrystalline silicon wafers have increased by 5.7% and 13.6% respectively, indicating a recovery in the photovoltaic supply chain [6]. - The current price trends reflect a response to policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market and ensuring prices remain above production costs [6]. - The report emphasizes the need for substantial changes in supply-demand dynamics to sustain the recovery in photovoltaic prices [6]. Energy Storage & Hydrogen: New Pricing Policies in Gansu - Gansu has introduced a capacity pricing mechanism for new energy storage, which is expected to enhance the economic viability of storage technologies [7]. - The new pricing model aims to create a revenue structure based on capacity and spot market trading, promoting competition and quality in the energy storage sector [7]. - The report suggests that the new pricing mechanism will help establish a more favorable environment for innovative storage solutions [7]. Investment Recommendations - For wind power, the report recommends focusing on companies like Mingyang Smart Energy, Goldwind Technology, and Oriental Cable, which are well-positioned to benefit from domestic demand and international expansion [7]. - In the photovoltaic sector, it suggests monitoring structural opportunities related to BC industry trends, with companies like Dier Laser and Longi Green Energy highlighted [7]. - For energy storage, it recommends Sunshine Power and Haibo Technology, which are expected to capitalize on overseas market opportunities [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - SAF is identified as a key pathway for carbon reduction in the aviation industry, with the potential to reduce carbon emissions by up to 85% compared to traditional aviation fuels. Its physical properties are similar to conventional jet fuel, eliminating the need for significant modifications to existing infrastructure and aircraft engines [3][8]. - The report anticipates that 2025 will mark the beginning of substantial progress in SAF blending policies across multiple countries, with mandatory blending ratios set to be implemented in regions such as the EU, UK, and Indonesia [4][24]. - The demand for SAF is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase from 50,000 tons in 2020 to 6.3 million tons by 2025, and further to 18.35 million tons by 2030, representing a rise in its share of total aviation fuel consumption from 2% in 2025 to 5% in 2030 [4][28]. Summary by Sections SAF as a Key Pathway for Carbon Reduction - SAF is recognized as a feasible solution for achieving carbon neutrality in aviation, with various production methods available, including HEFA, ATJ, FT, and PtL. HEFA is currently the most mature and cost-effective method, although it faces limitations due to the availability of feedstock [8][9][11]. - The report highlights that the production cost of SAF varies significantly based on the yield from feedstock, with estimates ranging from $1,940 to $3,200 per ton. The profitability of SAF production is contingent on achieving higher yields and reducing costs through technological advancements [20][21]. Global Policy and Market Dynamics - The report outlines that several countries have established clear timelines for SAF blending ratios, with the EU and UK implementing mandatory blending policies starting in 2025. This is expected to catalyze demand and support SAF prices [4][24]. - The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has mandated that all member countries participate in the CORSIA mechanism for carbon offsetting starting in 2027, further driving the adoption of SAF [25]. Regional Developments - In China, the demand for SAF is projected to reach 2.81 million tons by 2030, with several airlines actively pursuing SAF pilot projects. The country is expected to become a major supplier of SAF globally [4][36]. - The EU aims to reduce the price gap between SAF and traditional jet fuel through carbon credit allocations and subsidies, with consumption expected to reach approximately 910,000 tons by 2025 [4][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are leading in SAF production and have received necessary certifications, such as嘉澳环保, 海新能科, and 鹏鹞环保, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in SAF demand [4][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market by more than 5% over the next six months [56]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid pace of the implementation of the 11th batch of national centralized procurement, with 55 varieties included, a decrease of 7 from the previous batch. The average price drop in past procurement batches ranged from 48% to 59% [4][10]. - The total sales scale of the 11th batch of procurement varieties in medical institutions is projected to exceed 49 billion yuan in 2024 [10]. - The report identifies key therapeutic areas for the 55 varieties, including blood and hematopoietic system drugs, digestive system and metabolic drugs, respiratory system drugs, and others, with varying numbers of products in each category [10][11]. Summary by Sections National Procurement Overview - The 11th batch of national centralized procurement includes 55 varieties, with a total of 515 varieties across all batches. The average price drop in previous batches was between 48% and 59% [4][6]. - The timeline from the release of procurement documents to the announcement of selected results is approximately 1-2 months, followed by 3-4 months for implementation [4][7]. Competitive Landscape - Among the 55 varieties, 37 have 10 or more qualifying companies, with 4 having 30 or more. The leading companies in terms of the number of approved varieties include Beite Pharmaceutical, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and Fosun Pharma [10][12]. Changes in Procurement Rules - The report outlines changes in procurement rules for the 11th batch, including reasons for exclusion of certain products, such as low annual procurement amounts and high clinical risks [16][19]. - The reporting method for medical institutions has shifted from generic names to specific brand names for reporting quantities [19]. Sales and Market Share - The report provides a detailed table of the expected sales and market share for various products in the 11th batch, highlighting significant sales figures for products like Dapagliflozin and Olaparib, with market shares reaching up to 100% for some products [24][26]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceutical companies with rich pipeline layouts, such as Heng Rui Medicine and BeiGene, as well as companies with significant single-product potential and leading technology platforms [30].

证券研究报告 策略周报：扩内需与反内卷同步推进 证券分析师 魏 伟 投资咨询资格编号：S1060513060001 陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 蒋炯楠 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120002 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年7月20日 1 ※ 核心观点|扩内需与反内卷同步推进 2 • 上周A股延续上行，新兴科技表现居前。海外方面，美国最新零售和就业数据表现较好，虽然关税风险仍有反复，但市场更多交易基本面韧 性，美元指数连续第二周反弹至98.5，美股标普500和纳指上涨0.6%、1.5%。国内方面，Q2经济数据韧性，产业政策积极信号持续释放， A股市场热度延续，上证指数和创业板指上涨0.69%、3.17%；结构上，景气向好的新兴科技板块表现居前，通信行业领涨（7.56%），其 次是医药生物、汽车、机械设备、国防军工、电子、计算机（涨幅在2%-4%），光模块、创新药、稀土概念指数领涨（涨幅在8%-10%）。 • 海外方面，美国6月CPI符合预期、居民消费韧性；特朗普关税风险仍有反复，但市场反应钝化。基本面方面，美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%， 前值2.4%，核心CPI同比上 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that a stable growth plan for the non-ferrous metals industry is about to be introduced, which is expected to accelerate the optimization of the industrial structure [6][7] - The report highlights that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will continue to implement high-quality development plans for copper, aluminum, and gold industries, focusing on both supply and demand to promote consumption upgrades and cultivate new consumption markets [6] - The report suggests that the implementation of these policies is likely to improve the supply-side capacity structure, eliminate outdated capacity, and enhance the efficiency of resource, smelting, and demand interactions [6] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals Index Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the non-ferrous metals index closed at 5730.54 points, up 2.0% month-on-month [10] - The precious metals index rose 1.6%, while the industrial metals index increased by 1.0% [10] Precious Metals - Gold - The report notes that the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has diminished, leading to a positive outlook for gold in the medium to long term [6] - As of July 18, the COMEX gold futures contract decreased by 0.44% to $3355.5 per ounce, while global gold ETFs increased by $38 billion in the first half of the year [6] Industrial Metals - Copper - As of July 18, LME copper futures rose 1.4% to $9794.5 per ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 143,300 tons, a decrease of 400 tons [6] - The report anticipates that copper prices will benefit from macroeconomic and fundamental resonance, with a medium-term upward trend expected [6] Industrial Metals - Aluminum - As of July 18, LME aluminum futures increased by 1.4% to $2638 per ton, with domestic aluminum social inventory at 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons [6] - The report expects aluminum prices to rise further due to a strong demand-supply imbalance [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors, highlighting specific companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zijin Mining, and Tianshan Aluminum [7][6]