Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [17]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that apparel manufacturing and export-related companies are likely to benefit from a recovery in discretionary consumption, with apparel and home goods companies continuing to enjoy advantages from overseas markets [2]. - It suggests that after valuation adjustments, apparel brand companies may enter a new market cycle, with a focus on companies that can improve market share and offer good valuation [2]. - The report identifies two main investment themes: 1. Top-down selection of leading companies in niche markets with improving market share and valuation, recommending companies like Shenzhou International, Huali Group, and Weixing Co [2]. 2. Bottom-up selection of blue-chip stocks with strong earnings certainty and high dividend yields, focusing on brands with marginal improvements and stable dividend payouts, recommending companies like Anta Sports and Bosideng [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector increased by 1.42% last week, while the light industry sector rose by 1.34%, compared to a 1.39% increase in the CSI 300 index [4]. Key Companies in Apparel Manufacturing - **Shenzhou International**: The largest vertically integrated garment manufacturer globally, expected to maintain a high share of core customer orders due to the concentration of international clients [7]. - **Huali Group**: A leading manufacturer of sports and leisure footwear, anticipated to see a recovery in order volume as major clients reduce inventory [7]. - **Fuchun Dyeing and Weaving**: A top global sock yarn manufacturer, benefiting from a production model that ensures cost control and stable delivery [7]. - **Jiansheng Group**: A leading manufacturer of cotton socks and seamless sportswear, expected to improve order volume and profit margins as production capacity utilization increases [7]. Key Companies in Apparel Brands - **Bosideng**: A leading domestic down jacket brand, focusing on product iteration and store efficiency to drive sustainable growth [9]. - **Hailan Home**: A major men's apparel brand with strong performance in both online and offline channels, expected to stabilize earnings through brand optimization [9]. - **Baoxini**: A mid-to-high-end men's apparel brand with a well-established brand matrix, anticipated to see growth through store efficiency and expansion [9]. - **Fuanna**: A leading home textile company, increasing the number of franchise stores to boost performance, characterized by low valuation and high dividend yield [9]. Valuation Performance of Key Companies - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, highlighting metrics such as market capitalization, earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, and dividend yields for various companies in the apparel and home textile sectors [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market by more than 5% over the next six months [43]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamentals of the food and beverage industry are stabilizing, presenting opportunities for revaluation. It notes that the high-end liquor market is showing signs of recovery, with stable pricing for core products and a continuous increase in market share for premium brands [5][6]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the snack and restaurant sectors, highlighting the ongoing channel and product advantages in the snack market, as well as a potential slight recovery in the restaurant industry [5][6]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index has shown a cumulative increase of 1.51%, with notable performers including Gujing Gongjiu (+4.97%) and Luzhou Laojiao (+3.91%). The report identifies three main investment lines: high-end liquor (recommended brands include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao), mid-range liquor (recommended brand is Shanxi Fenjiu), and real estate liquor (recommended brands include Yingjia Gongjiu and Jianshiyuan) [5][6]. - The report forecasts that Kweichow Moutai will achieve a revenue growth of 15.44% in 2024, with a projected revenue of 507 billion yuan in Q4 2024, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase [7]. - Luzhou Laojiao is expected to maintain a solid market presence with a revenue of 74 billion yuan in Q3 2024, showing a 0.7% increase year-on-year [7]. Food Industry - The food index has experienced a cumulative decline of 1.10%, with top performers including ST Chuntian (+10.84%) and Jinzi Ham (+10.02%). The report suggests focusing on the snack and restaurant supply chain for investment opportunities, particularly in high-growth segments like snacks and the potential recovery in the restaurant sector [5][6]. - The report highlights that East Peak Beverage achieved a revenue of 125.58 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a 45.34% increase year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 63.53% [11]. - The report also notes that Yanjing Beer is focusing on high-end strategies and has reported a revenue of 128.46 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a 3.47% increase year-on-year [11]. Key Company Performance - Gujing Gongjiu reported a revenue of 53 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4% and a net profit increase of 13.6% [9]. - East Peak Beverage's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 158 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 41% [22]. - The report indicates that the overall food and beverage industry has shown a cumulative increase of 0.77% this week, with significant fluctuations among individual stocks [14].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic email provider, leveraging AI to expand its value boundaries and enhance its product offerings [7][14]. - The company has established a comprehensive product line focusing on collaborative office solutions, smart channels, and cloud and big data services, which are crucial for digital transformation in various industries [15][18]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of the domestic cloud market and the increasing demand for AI applications, particularly in the context of national policies promoting domestic innovation [41][45]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - The company started with mobile email services and has evolved into a technology and service provider for industrial internet, focusing on AI and digital transformation [14]. - It has developed three core product lines: collaborative office, smart channels, and cloud and big data, which cater to the information needs of enterprise users [15][18]. - The company has a strong partnership with China Mobile, enhancing its market position and customer base [18]. Section 2: Collaborative Office Solutions - The RichMail email system is fully compatible with domestic innovation requirements, addressing the growing demand for domestic email solutions [41][47]. - The company is actively developing digital employee solutions that integrate AI capabilities to improve operational efficiency for clients [46][51]. Section 3: Smart Channel Development - The company has established a significant user base through its smart channel products, collaborating with China Mobile to enhance user engagement [7][18]. - It is also involved in the development of 5G messaging platforms, positioning itself as a key player in the evolving digital communication landscape [7][18]. Section 4: Cloud and Big Data Services - The company is a core supplier in the national cloud market, working closely with telecom operators to expand its cloud services [8][18]. - It has developed RichAICloud, which provides solutions for large-scale computing management, further extending its service capabilities [29][31]. Section 5: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 16.97 billion, 20.33 billion, and 24.61 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 13.4%, 19.8%, and 21.1% [4][8]. - Net profits are expected to be 2.94 billion, 3.56 billion, and 4.39 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of -9.4%, 21.2%, and 23.2% [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated prudent and stable operations, with continuous improvement in dividend payouts [1] - The financial segment faced pressure, while the industrial segment showed steady growth [9] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a proposed cash dividend of HKD 0.30 per share, leading to an overall dividend of HKD 0.55 per share, representing a year-on-year increase of 10% [9] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported total revenue of CNY 377.49 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, and a net profit of CNY 38.62 billion, down 37.6% year-on-year [4] - Total assets reached CNY 3,604 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while net assets decreased by 2.2% to CNY 490 billion [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the year was CNY 0.89, with a book value per share (BVPS) of CNY 11.34 [4] Revenue Breakdown - The financial segment generated revenue of CNY 217 billion, down 7% year-on-year, while the industrial segment achieved revenue of CNY 162 billion, up 10% year-on-year [9] - Interest income within the financial segment was CNY 212 billion, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, while consulting fees dropped significantly by 42% to CNY 5 billion [9] Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 10.2%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.8% [13] - The net interest margin is expected to be 4.48%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 10 basis points [9] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 are set at CNY 39.38 billion, with a projected year-on-year growth of 4.3% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at CNY 4.204 billion, reflecting an 8.8% increase from the previous year [5] Dividend Policy - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to over 50%, with a total dividend payment expected to reach approximately 88% when including the distribution of shares [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [41]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the fundamentals of the food and beverage industry are stabilizing, presenting opportunities for revaluation. It notes that the high-end liquor market is showing signs of recovery, with stable pricing and strong sales for core products. The report suggests that the overall market confidence is being reinforced by positive signals from liquor companies [5][6]. - For the food sector, the report highlights investment opportunities in the snack and restaurant supply chains, predicting a slight recovery in the restaurant industry within the year. It recommends focusing on companies that are well-positioned in high-demand segments, such as snacks and beverages [5][10]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report indicates that the liquor index has seen a cumulative increase of 1.51%, with notable performers including Gujing Gongjiu (+4.97%) and Luzhou Laojiao (+3.91%). It suggests that the high-end liquor segment remains robust, with brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye recommended for investment due to their strong market positions and growth potential [5][6]. - The report also mentions that the liquor market is expected to benefit from policy catalysts that could further enhance consumption [5]. Food Industry - The food index has experienced a cumulative decline of 1.10%, with top gainers including ST Chuntian (+10.84%) and Jinzi Ham (+10.02%). The report suggests that the snack sector continues to thrive due to channel and product advantages, recommending companies like Three Squirrels and Yanjin Beer for investment [5][10]. - The restaurant industry is projected to stabilize, with potential for a modest recovery. The report advises monitoring related sectors such as beer, condiments, and frozen foods, recommending companies like Yanjin Beer and Haitian Flavoring for their growth prospects [5][10]. Company Performance - Guizhou Moutai is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 15.44% in 2024, with a strong performance in its core products [7]. - Wuliangye is expected to maintain a stable dividend policy, with a commitment to return at least 70% of its net profit to shareholders [7]. - Luzhou Laojiao is focusing on expanding its market presence and product offerings, with a solid foundation in key markets [7]. - The report highlights the strong growth trajectory of East Peng Beverage, which reported a 45.34% increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1]. Core Insights - PFA (Pulsed Field Ablation) technology is expected to experience rapid development and has significant advantages in treating atrial fibrillation (AF) [3][24]. - The PFA market in China is projected to reach 1.3 billion yuan by 2025 and 16.3 billion yuan by 2032, with a CAGR of 43.73% [3][35]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - PFA technology has a long history and is anticipated to become a breakthrough technology in the field of cardiac ablation [4][5]. Industry Trends - Continuous clinical research advancements are clarifying the development trends of PFA technology [4][39]. - Recent clinical trials have demonstrated the effectiveness and safety of PFA in treating both paroxysmal and persistent AF patients, with reduced treatment times [3][41]. Competitive Landscape - Both domestic and international companies are actively developing PFA technology, with domestic firms poised to leverage PFA for market entry [3][35]. - The approval of PFA products by major companies like Medtronic and Boston Scientific indicates a competitive environment where domestic companies can gain market share [3][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic companies with strong product layouts and commercialization capabilities in the PFA space, such as Huatai Medical and Microelectrophysiology [3][35].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant rebound, driven by positive sentiment from the National People's Congress and a continued revaluation of technology assets [3][31] - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, and Hang Seng Composite Index saw increases of 5.62%, 8.43%, and 5.53% respectively during the week of March 7 [31] - The report indicates that sectors such as information technology (up 8.85%), non-essential consumption (up 7.89%), and materials (up 11.20%) are leading the gains, suggesting a broadening of the asset revaluation towards cyclical sectors [3][31] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the investment value of technology assets in the Hong Kong market, noting that leading companies are expected to continue driving the technology sector's performance [32] - The report states that the information technology sector in Hong Kong is currently at a low historical valuation percentile of 42.0%, indicating potential for recovery [32] - The performance of major technology companies, particularly Alibaba, is highlighted, with recent earnings exceeding expectations and significant growth in AI and cloud business revenues [32]

Group 1 - The report indicates that since late February, dollar assets have shown a trend of declining US stocks, rising US Treasury yields, and a weakening dollar index, primarily influenced by the Deepseek impact on the US AI technology bubble, Trump's policy disruptions, and marginally weakening economic data [4][6][7] - The S&P 500 index fell by 6.20% and the Nasdaq dropped by 9.48% from February 21 to March 6, while the 10-year Treasury yield decreased from 4.50% to 4.29%, a drop of 21 basis points [7][19] - The report highlights that the market is currently trading on recession expectations, with the performance of dollar assets reflecting concerns over the US economic outlook due to Trump's policies [19][20] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of Trump's complex and escalating tariff policies, which have heightened market risk aversion, including a 20% additional tariff on China and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports [11][12] - Consumer confidence has significantly declined, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropping from 71.7 to 64.7, the lowest since November 2023 [11][13] - The report notes that the marginal slowdown in macroeconomic data, such as a 0.9% decline in retail sales in January, reflects the negative impact of high interest rates and tariff uncertainties on consumer spending [19][20] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the US economy may gradually experience a "stagflation" scenario, with increasing risks of economic slowdown and rising inflation [19][20] - It emphasizes that the government's debt pressure has been rising, with net interest payments on the national debt expected to exceed 50% of the total deficit by fiscal year 2025, limiting fiscal stimulus effectiveness [19][21] - The report also highlights that the contractionary policies are advancing faster than growth-oriented policies, suggesting a higher likelihood of short-term negative impacts on the economy [20][21] Group 4 - The report outlines that the planned government layoffs could impact employment and growth, with estimates suggesting that around 12,000 to 24,000 federal employees may be laid off [22][23] - It mentions that the layoffs could spill over into the private sector, potentially affecting an additional 24,000 jobs due to the interconnected nature of government contracts [22][23] - The report indicates that the unemployment rate may rise by 0.1% to 0.3% in the coming months due to these layoffs [23][24] Group 5 - The report assesses the inflationary pressures from tariff and immigration policies, estimating that tariffs could raise inflation by 0.1% to 0.8% and immigration policies could add another 0.15% to 0.20% [31][32] - It highlights that the structural characteristics of inflation may limit the actual upward movement of inflation, with service inflation remaining a significant obstacle to inflation reduction [34][35] - The report concludes that the potential for inflation to rise is limited, while the risks of stagnation are more concerning [20][34]

证券研究报告 策略周报：两会窗口把握政策驱动主线 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 ※ 核心观点|两会窗口把握政策驱动主线 2 • 上周美股继续下跌，A股港股上行。海外方面，美国衰退预期升温，特朗普政府一系列新政（削减财政支出、DOGE裁员、关税等）对未 来经济增长和通胀的影响的不确定性抬升，上周美元指数下跌3.4%，美股标普500指数下跌3.1%。国内方面，全国两会召开释放积极政策 信号，财政更加积极给力，国内科技产业利好不断，上周中资资产表现依然亮眼，成长风格弹性更大，恒生科技上涨8.4%，科创50指数 上涨2.7%；31个申万一级行业中有26个行业上涨，其中，有色金属、国防军工、计算机、机械设备、传媒行业领涨、涨幅均超过5%。 • 海外方面，美欧经济前景不确定性增加，欧洲财政扩张预期升温。美国方面，2月新增非农就业略低于预期但仍有韧性，鲍威尔表示目前 不急于降息。当地时间3月7日，美国劳工部发布数据，美国2月非农就业人口增长15.1万人，低于市场预期的16万人；2月失业率升至4.1%， 高于预期和前值0.1pct。同日，鲍威尔在公开演讲时表示，目前美国劳动力市场稳固且总体平衡，已预计到通胀回归目标的路径并不 ...

2025 年 03 月 09 日 证券分析师 | 钟正生 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520090001 | | | ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn | | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060522100001 | 事项： 2025 年 2 月 CPI 同比为-0.7%，PPI 同比为-2.2%。 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 2025 年 2 月物价数据点评 只待旧貌换新颜 宏 观 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告，如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告，请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的声明内容。 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 春节错位是 CPI 转负主因。2 月 CPI 翘尾因素（即上年价格变动的滞后影 响）为-1.2%，新涨价因素为 0.5%。春节错位的影响集中在：交通工具使用 和维修、食品、旅游，以及邮政和家庭服务，这几个分项均规律性地表现为 在春节月价格明显上涨、春节次月显著回落。需要注意，第一，与春节同在 1 月的年份相比，今年 1、2 月份食品价格的涨幅都 ...