行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 非银行金融行业数据周报（20250818-20250822） 推荐（维持） 交投活跃度持续上行 推荐顺序：广发、国泰海通、中金 H、中信、华泰、东财，建议关注：银河 H、华林、湘财、建投 H。 推荐顺序：中国太保 H、中国人寿 H、中国平安 H，建议关注：中国人保 H、 中国财险. 风险提示：经济下行压力加大、创新改革节奏低于预期、利率较大波动。 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 中国太保 | 41.57 | 4.87 | 4.99 | 5.10 | 8.53 | 8.34 | 8.16 | 1.21 | 推荐 | | 中国人寿 | 42.86 | 3.09 | 3.19 | 3.25 | 13.86 | 13.46 | ...

Group 1: Profitability of Small and Micro Enterprises - The estimated profit margin for small and micro enterprises in the industrial sector is approximately 4.6% in 2023[5] - For the service sector, the profit margin for 11 small and micro enterprises is estimated to be around 7.7% after excluding the wholesale and retail sector[6] - The average profit margin for small and micro enterprises across all industries is projected to be 4.9% in 2024, with a decline to 4.5% expected in the second quarter of 2025[7] Group 2: Definition and Classification of Small and Micro Enterprises - Small and micro enterprises are defined based on revenue thresholds, with industrial enterprises having a revenue of less than 20 million yuan classified as small[3] - In 2023, the total revenue of industrial enterprises in China was 152 trillion yuan, with large enterprises accounting for approximately 90% of this revenue[3] - The classification of enterprises into large, medium, small, and micro categories is based on the number of employees and annual revenue, with small enterprises having 20-300 employees and revenue between 3 million to 20 million yuan[12] Group 3: Individual Operators and Employment - Individual operators, while not classified as legal entities, employ approximately 180 million people, representing about 30% of total employment in China[4] - The majority of individual operators are concentrated in the accommodation, catering, and retail sectors, with over 60% of employment in these industries[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for CITIC Heli [1] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 16% in the first half of 2025, with a focus on deepening its presence in the low-altitude sector [1][5] - The report highlights the successful completion of the world's first eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) transportation of materials to an offshore oil platform, marking a significant milestone in low-altitude logistics [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the low-altitude economic wave, with three main growth drivers identified: expanding consumer markets, participation in new low-altitude operational network standards, and potential opportunities from state-owned enterprises [5] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 2,163 million, 2,378 million, 2,634 million, and 2,923 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.8%, 9.9%, 10.8%, and 11.0% [1][12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 303 million, 360 million, 400 million, and 436 million for the same years, with growth rates of 26.8%, 18.7%, 11.1%, and 9.0% respectively [1][12] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.39, 0.46, 0.52, and 0.56 for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 62, 53, 47, and 43 [1][12] Operational Highlights - The company operated 88 helicopters and deployed 14 drones across various regions, indicating an increase in operational capacity [5] - The company has expanded its low-altitude service routes, adding 13 sightseeing routes and 12 administrative ferry routes [5] - The introduction of the "Yilong 2" drone system marks a significant advancement in the industrial-grade drone application field [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [4][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 193 million yuan, down 44.78% year-on-year, and a net loss of 88 million yuan, down 356.51% year-on-year. The second quarter alone saw revenue of 91 million yuan, a 62.40% decline year-on-year [1][8]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company's chip business showed resilience, with a slight revenue drop of 3.39%, now accounting for 33.25% of total revenue. The small specialized radar segment also experienced a reduced decline of 18.84%, indicating improved stability [8]. - The company is focusing on technological advancements, with R&D investment increasing by 21.76% to 153 million yuan, representing 79.40% of revenue. This investment supports the development of proprietary GPUs, expanding applications from graphics rendering to computing [8]. - A strategic shift is underway as the company plans to invest 220 million yuan in Chengheng Micro, aiming to enter the edge AI chip market. This move is expected to create a dual-driven model of "GPU + edge AI chips," enhancing domestic computing power applications [8]. - The company anticipates a recovery in performance, projecting revenues of 791 million yuan, 1.234 billion yuan, and 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 69.6%, 56.1%, and 53.9% [8]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at 466 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 34.6%. The net profit is expected to improve to 0 million yuan in 2025, with a staggering growth rate of 99.8% in 2026 [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -0.32 yuan in 2024, transitioning to 0.00 yuan in 2025 and reaching 0.16 yuan in 2026 [3][9]. - The company’s price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is estimated at 45x for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of 55.5 billion yuan and a target price of approximately 106 yuan per share [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 949 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 87.33%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 66 million yuan, up 200.07% year-over-year [1][5]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 527 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 71.96% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 25.03%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for this quarter was 50 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 404.32% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 222.07% [1][5]. - The company has successfully built a comprehensive layout in the industrial, automotive, communication, and consumer electronics markets, leading to significant growth in overall shipment volume and revenue [5]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 1,988 million yuan in 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 63.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 136 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 169.0% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.00 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 152 [6]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 46.5% in 2025, with a net margin of 6.8% [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has strengthened its position in high-barrier application fields, particularly in the industrial and automotive sectors, through continuous product iteration and expansion of its product lines [5]. - The acquisition of Chuangxinwei has enhanced the company's strategic layout in the power management and consumer electronics sectors, contributing to growth in lithium battery protection chip products [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huachen Equipment, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][15]. Core Views - The company is experiencing revenue growth, with new products winning bids and contracts. The revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 28.4% to 30 million yuan due to impairment provisions [6][2]. - The report highlights the company's strategic partnerships and new product launches, which are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue growth. The company has signed contracts for 100 grinding machines and introduced several new precision grinding products [6][2]. - The report projects revenue growth for 2025-2027, estimating total revenues of 583 million yuan, 931 million yuan, and 1,189 million yuan respectively, with net profits of 120 million yuan, 192 million yuan, and 256 million yuan [6][2]. Financial Summary - Key financial metrics for Huachen Equipment are as follows: - Total revenue (million yuan): 446 in 2024A, projected 583 in 2025E, 931 in 2026E, and 1,189 in 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of -6.9%, 30.8%, 59.5%, and 27.7% respectively [2][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (million yuan): 62 in 2024A, projected 120 in 2025E, 192 in 2026E, and 256 in 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of -47.4%, 94.3%, 59.5%, and 33.6% respectively [2][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS): 0.24 in 2024A, projected 0.47 in 2025E, 0.76 in 2026E, and 1.01 in 2027E [2][7]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 12.487 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 7.416 billion yuan [3]. Market Position and Strategy - Huachen Equipment is positioned as a leading manufacturer of CNC roller grinding machines in China, actively expanding into new product lines such as ultra-precision grinding and CNC linear guideway grinding machines [6][2]. - The company aims to break the long-standing foreign monopoly in high-end precision grinding equipment for strategic sectors like semiconductors and aerospace, leveraging its core technology advancements [6][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][22]. Core Insights - The company has experienced significant growth in its traditional business, with a 73% year-on-year increase in revenue from its general machinery products, amounting to 3.64 billion yuan, and a 140% increase in net profit to 370 million yuan [2]. - The motorcycle engine segment also showed growth, with revenue reaching 2.32 billion yuan, a 14.2% increase, and net profit rising by 39.3% to 130 million yuan. The company benefits from both export growth and product upgrades [2]. - The company’s total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 6.655 billion yuan, reflecting a 40.29% year-on-year increase, with net profit growing by 79.37% to 506 million yuan [7]. - The report highlights the potential for significant synergy from the integration of the company with Longxin General, which could enhance market competitiveness [2][8]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 14.273 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 35.8% [3]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 917 million yuan, representing a substantial increase of 98.7% compared to the previous year [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to reach 0.80 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33 [3][8]. Company Data - The company has a total share capital of approximately 1.145 billion shares and a total market capitalization of 29.851 billion yuan [4]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 53.78%, indicating a moderate level of financial leverage [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the securities industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [25]. Core Insights - The recent regulatory changes by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasize a "supporting the strong and limiting the weak" approach, aiming to enhance the classification evaluation system for securities companies [2][3]. - The new regulations will guide industry resources towards firms that demonstrate stable operations, strong professional capabilities, and active service to the real economy, leading to increased differentiation within the industry [5]. - The report highlights that leading securities firms and smaller firms with specialized advantages in wealth management and investment banking will benefit from these changes [5]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The CSRC has revised the classification regulations to focus on evaluation rather than mere classification, aligning with the new title of "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations" [2]. - Adjustments to business development indicators reflect a clear differentiation strategy, promoting efficiency over mere scale [3]. Business Performance - As of August 22, 2025, the total market capitalization of the securities industry is approximately 448.49 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 372.09 billion yuan [6]. - The industry has shown strong performance, with absolute returns of 12.5% over one month, 17.3% over six months, and 70.2% over twelve months [7]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including Guangfa Securities, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities, all rated as "Recommended" based on their expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [11]. - The report suggests focusing on supply-side reforms and industry consolidation for portfolio allocation within the securities sector [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 75 yuan [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.95 billion yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.23 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 1.85 billion yuan, down 29.7%, and net profit was 580 million yuan, down 37.1% [2][7]. - The report indicates that the company is actively managing its inventory and has begun a phase of destocking, which is expected to relieve pressure in the coming year. The company is focusing on deepening market penetration in provincial areas and expanding its presence in key markets outside the province [7][8]. - The report highlights that the company has increased its marketing and promotional expenses, which has impacted profitability. The gross margin for Q2 was 72.8%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 10.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.4%. The net profit forecast for 2025 is 2.89 billion yuan, down 15.5% year-on-year [3][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.31 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times [3][7]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 25.71 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 10.6% [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Xianle Health, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][22]. Core Views - Xianle Health's H1 2025 performance shows steady growth, with total revenue reaching 2.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 161 million yuan, up 4.3% [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its BFPC business, which is currently underperforming, while also expanding into high-potential segments such as probiotics and anti-aging products [2][7]. - The report highlights the resilience of the Americas market and the successful expansion of new retail clients in China, contributing to overall revenue growth [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.04 billion yuan, with a net profit of 161 million yuan, reflecting a 4.3% increase year-on-year [2]. - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 shows projected revenues of 4.59 billion yuan in 2025, 5.09 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.56 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 352 million yuan, 451 million yuan, and 524 million yuan respectively [2][11]. - The report indicates a stable gross margin of 33.3% for Q2 2025, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2][7]. Market Position and Strategy - Xianle Health is actively pursuing new consumer markets, with a reported 40% growth in new retail clients in H1 2025 [2][7]. - The company plans to seek investment or divestment opportunities for its underperforming BFPC business, which is expected to enhance overall profitability and market competitiveness [2][7]. - The introduction of AI tools in production and R&D is aimed at improving efficiency and strengthening long-term competitive capabilities [2][7].