行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 推荐（维持） 以伊冲突升级，本周油价上涨 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 23 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 能源周报（20250616-20250622） 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 490 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 42,481.40 | 4.23 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 37,730.76 | 4.79 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -1.1% | -1.2% | 11.1% | | 相对表现 | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | -12% 0% 11% 23% 24/06 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [3][38]. Core Insights - The computer sector experienced a decline in the week of June 16-20, with the CITIC computer index dropping by 1.87%, the ChiNext index down by 1.66%, and the Shanghai Composite index falling by 0.51% [9][16]. - The report highlights the rapid advancements in AI, particularly in multimodal models, with significant developments from Google and Meta, indicating a promising future for the industry [9][20][23]. - The report notes that the market's focus is shifting from technology themes to performance realization and rapid industrial transformation as companies begin to disclose their earnings [9][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The report discusses the performance of the computer sector, noting the top gainers and losers during the week, with notable increases in stocks like Chutianlong (up 36.59%) and Sifang Jingchuang (up 29.21%) [9][16]. - It emphasizes the ongoing innovations in AI, particularly the introduction of multimodal products that integrate visual and audio elements, which are gaining traction in the market [9][12]. Weekly Market Review - The report provides a detailed review of the market performance for the week, highlighting the overall decline in major indices and the net outflow of funds from the computer sector [16][19]. Funding Situation Review - The report indicates a total net outflow of 270 billion from all A-shares, with the computer sector experiencing a net outflow of 21 billion [19]. Progress in Multimodal Models - The report details the advancements in AI models, particularly Google's Veo 3 and Meta's Llama 4, which have achieved significant breakthroughs in video generation and multimodal capabilities [20][23]. - Veo 3 is noted for its ability to synchronize audio and visual elements seamlessly, while Llama 4 boasts a massive parameter scale and enhanced multimodal integration [20][23]. Investment Recommendations and Beneficiary Targets - The report suggests focusing on AI enterprise services and application scenarios, listing specific companies across various sectors such as office software, finance, education, and healthcare that are expected to benefit from these advancements [12][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment slowed down. Given the external uncertainties in the second half of the year, the necessity of stabilizing investment has increased. The new policy - based financial instruments proposed in the April Politburo meeting have attracted high market attention. There is a high probability that the instruments will be implemented in the short term, and the third quarter may be the period for the implementation of broad - credit policies, which will affect the bond market sentiment [1][24]. - The risk of crossing the half - year is controllable, but the institutional fund arrangement is relatively slow. The large - bank net lending scale has significantly increased, and the inter - bank cross - quarter fund progress is relatively slow [3]. - Since June, the bond market's spread exploration has shifted from the mid - term to the ultra - long - term. However, investors should flexibly stop losses and realize profits [4]. - In the bond market this week, the LuJiaZui Conference did not meet expectations, and the yield fluctuated within a narrow range. The central bank's OMO continued net withdrawals, and the capital market was balanced and loose. The net financing of national bonds and policy - based financial bonds decreased, while that of local bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased. The term spread of national bonds widened, and that of China Development Bank bonds narrowed [10][54]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 New Policy - based Financial Instruments: Progress - The necessity of stabilizing investment has increased due to the slowdown of fixed - asset investment growth in the second quarter and external uncertainties in the second half of the year. Since May, local governments have accelerated the project reserve of policy - based financial instruments, with a possible quota of 500 billion yuan, and the support for science and technology and consumption infrastructure construction may be prioritized [1][14]. - Referring to the experience in 2022, it took about two months from the release of the instrument quota to the completion of the investment, with a relatively fast pace. The policy - based financial supply in 2022 had a leverage ratio of over 4.7 times for credit and over 10 times for infrastructure investment [17]. - The third quarter may be the period for the implementation of broad - credit policies, and attention should be paid to the impact on the bond market sentiment [24]. 3.2 Cross - half - year Risk is Controllable, and Institutional Fund Arrangement is Slow - This week, the tax period passed smoothly. After the tax period, the capital sentiment tightened briefly, which may be related to the increase in the bond market leverage level. The central bank's operations remained relatively active, and the reverse - repurchase balance was at a seasonal high [3]. - The large - bank net lending scale has significantly increased, with the single - day net lending scale reaching 5.3 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period. As of June 20, the inter - bank cross - quarter fund progress was 12%, lower than the previous level. The cross - half - year risk is expected to be relatively controllable [28]. 3.3 Bond Market Strategy: Spread Exploration Shifts from the Mid - term to the Ultra - long - term, but Flexibly Stop Losses and Realize Profits - From April to May, the bond market fully explored the spreads of mid - term interest - rate varieties. The spread quantile of mid - term varieties decreased from 75% - 96% to 44% at the end of May, with limited room for further compression [34]. - In June, the spread exploration shifted to the ultra - long - term. The best - performing maturities since April have experienced two rounds of "short - term → mid - term → ultra - long - term" rotation. The recent ultra - long - term market, mainly driven by trading desks such as funds and other products, is due to the strong demand for capital gains in a low - interest - rate environment and the expected opening of the bond - allocation space for insurance companies in the third quarter [4][37]. - Investors should continue to pay attention to the cost - effectiveness of the ultra - long - term bonds and stop losses and realize profits at appropriate times, such as when the ultra - long - term spreads are fully explored, if the central bank announces bond purchases at the end of June, and in July [5]. 3.4 Bond Market Review: The LuJiaZui Conference did not Meet Expectations, and the Yield Fluctuated within a Narrow Range - **Funding**: The central bank's OMO continued net withdrawals, and the capital market was balanced and loose. The weighted price of DR001 fell back to around 1.37%, and the issuance price of 1 - year national - share bank certificates of deposit dropped to 1.63% [11]. - **Primary Issuance**: The net financing of national bonds and policy - based financial bonds decreased, while that of local bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [59]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spread of national bonds widened, and that of China Development Bank bonds narrowed. The short - term performance of national bonds was better than that of the long - term, while the long - term performance of China Development Bank bonds was better than that of the short - term [54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The new market risk regulations enhance operational efficiency for banks and establish a solid foundation for future business development [4]. - The regulations clarify the definition of market risk, separating it from interest rate risk, and emphasize the need for improved governance structures and responsibilities among the board, supervisors, and senior management [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of the new regulations in strengthening banks' risk management capabilities amid increasing complexity in domestic and global trade [4]. Summary by Sections Market Risk Definition and Governance - The new regulations define market risk more rigorously, focusing on risks from adverse changes in interest rates, exchange rates, stock prices, and commodity prices [2]. - The governance structure is refined, specifying the responsibilities of the board, supervisors, and senior management in market risk management [3]. Market Risk Management Requirements - The report details enhanced requirements for risk identification, measurement, monitoring, control, and reporting, aligning with current market practices [3]. - Stricter requirements for the segregation of trading and non-trading activities are introduced, ensuring clearer roles and responsibilities [3]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the banking sector is poised for increased capital inflows due to medium to long-term investments and public fund reforms, recommending a diversified investment strategy focusing on state-owned banks and quality regional banks [9]. - It emphasizes the potential for absolute returns in banks with high dividend yields and strong asset quality, particularly recommending banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, particularly focusing on AI-related machinery and consumables [1]. Core Insights - The demand for machinery and consumables is expected to resonate positively due to the rapid iteration of AI models and smart hardware applications, leading to a significant increase in the demand for high-performance servers, GPUs, and advanced PCBs [6]. - The report emphasizes three key directions for robotics: marginal changes in the main chain, the evolution from products to customers and scenarios, and the importance of precision and efficiency in processing equipment [6]. - Investment suggestions highlight the potential for a new recovery cycle in the equipment industry, driven by monetary and fiscal policies, with a focus on companies in various sectors such as industrial control, robotics, machine tools, and laser industries [6]. Summary by Sections Industry and Company Investment Views - The report includes in-depth research on companies like Bozhong Precision Engineering, which is a leading player in 3C automation equipment, and is expanding into emerging fields such as new energy and semiconductor sectors [21][22]. - Another highlighted company, Sikan Technology, specializes in 3D visual digital solutions and has shown rapid revenue growth, indicating a strong market position and potential for future expansion [24][25]. Key Data Tracking - The mechanical industry comprises 633 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 48,991.09 billion [3]. - The report tracks various macroeconomic indicators, including manufacturing PMI and fixed asset investment growth rates, which are crucial for understanding the industry's performance [28][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly highlighting the potential reversal in cobalt prices due to the extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for precious metals, copper, and aluminum sectors, driven by inventory reductions and market dynamics [3][9]. - The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to support cobalt prices, impacting supply chains and pricing strategies for Chinese companies [9]. - The report also notes the increasing dividend distribution from Yun Aluminum Co., indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [3]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector includes 125 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 295.59 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 257.00 billion yuan [5]. - Recent performance metrics show a 2.9% increase over the past month, a 9.0% increase over six months, and a 12.4% increase over the past year, indicating a positive trend in the sector [6]. Aluminum Sector Insights - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory has decreased to 449,000 tons, down 1.1% from the previous week and 30.7% year-on-year, suggesting a tightening supply that supports aluminum prices [8]. - The report indicates that while aluminum ingot inventories are low, the recent increase in aluminum rod inventories suggests a potential stabilization in prices [8]. Cobalt Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the extension of the cobalt export ban is aimed at managing high inventory levels and is expected to provide price support for cobalt in the near term [9]. - Chinese cobalt refining companies are likely to face short-term supply pressures due to the ban, which may lead to increased prices as they rely on existing stocks [9]. Company-Specific Developments - Yun Aluminum Co. announced a cash dividend of 1.8 yuan per share, totaling 624 million yuan, reflecting a dividend payout ratio of 32.23% for 2024, showcasing the company's strong financial health and commitment to shareholders [3]. - Xiamen Tungsten Co. has successfully launched a new production line for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnetic materials, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the communication industry [1] Core Insights - The 2025 World Mobile Communication Conference (MWC) focused on key themes such as 5G integration, AI, and satellite communication, highlighting significant advancements in the industry [15][49] - The communication sector has shown resilience, outperforming major indices like the CSI 300 and the ChiNext Index in both weekly and year-to-date performance [8][9] - Key companies to watch include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, with specific recommendations for various segments such as AI applications, satellite communication, and optical components [49][51] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication industry consists of 124 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 484.33 billion [3] - The sector's performance has been robust, with a 1.58% increase in the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.04 percentage points [8][9] MWC Highlights - Major announcements included the release of the "Agentic AI for Telco" white paper by China Mobile and several partners, outlining a framework for AI collaboration in telecommunications [15][16] - China Mobile introduced a series of AIoT products, emphasizing the integration of AI with IoT and satellite communications [21][22] - China Telecom showcased its cloud-network integration strategy, focusing on AI-driven applications across various sectors [25][27] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Telecom Operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom [51] - Optical Components: New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, Zhongji Xuchuang [51] - Satellite Communication: Haige Communication, Shanghai Hanhua, Qiyi Er [51] - Equipment Manufacturers: Gongjin Co., Unisoc, ZTE, Ruijie Networks [51] - IoT Modules: Guanghetong, with a focus on AI applications [51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the steel industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a bottoming out in the off-season, with a focus on bottom-fishing opportunities. Cost reductions are accelerating, leading to a slight improvement in industry profitability [2][3]. - As of June 20, 2025, the prices for five major steel products are reported as follows: rebar at 3,201 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,540 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,210 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,613 CNY/ton, and medium-thick plate at 3,398 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of -0.21%, -0.13%, +0.37%, -0.26%, and -0.68% respectively [2][17]. - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel enterprises is 2.4218 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.057 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces is 90.79%, up by 0.21 percentage points week-on-week [2][3]. - The total steel inventory is 13.3839 million tons, down by 156,700 tons week-on-week, with social inventory decreasing by 143,700 tons to 9.1311 million tons [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The report indicates that the steel market is currently in a seasonal off-peak period, with prices stabilizing at the bottom [2][3]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The production of five major steel products has shown a slight recovery, primarily driven by the restoration of steel mill profits [3][4]. (b) Consumption of Five Major Steel Products - The total consumption of the five major steel products reached 8.8418 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.608 million tons [2][3]. (c) Inventory Situation - The report highlights a decrease in both social and steel mill inventories, indicating a tightening supply situation [2][3]. (d) Profitability - The profitability of the steel industry is showing signs of recovery, with 59.31% of sampled steel companies reporting profits, an increase of 0.87 percentage points week-on-week [2][3]. 3. Company Insights - Baodi Mining is planning to acquire an 82% stake in Congling Energy, which will enhance its iron ore resource control by approximately 21.75% [4]. 4. Stock Insights - The report emphasizes the stabilization and recovery of profits in the steel industry, suggesting attention to future supply regulation policies that may provide elasticity [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the orthopedic consumables industry, indicating potential for growth and investment opportunities in the sector [9]. Core Viewpoints - The orthopedic consumables market is segmented into joint, spine, trauma, and sports medicine categories, with joint and spine products holding significant market shares [16][12]. - The report highlights the increasing domestic replacement rate driven by centralized procurement policies, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of local manufacturers [22][24]. - The orthopedic consumables market is projected to grow significantly, with joint products expected to reach a market size of 408 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 16.9% [21]. - The report emphasizes the rapid development of the sports medicine segment, with a projected CAGR of 28.7%, indicating a growing market opportunity [21]. Market Overview - The orthopedic consumables market in China is expected to reach 592 billion yuan by 2024, representing 17% of the global orthopedic consumables market, which is projected to be 48.6 billion USD [38]. - The report outlines the increasing trend of domestic companies expanding their operations overseas, with significant growth in the proportion of revenue from international markets for companies like Spring Medical and Dabo Medical [39][40]. Segment Analysis - **Joint Products**: The market size for joint products is expected to grow from 187 billion yuan in 2024 to 408 billion yuan by 2029, driven by advancements in surgical techniques and technology [21]. - **Spine Products**: The spine product market is projected to grow from 171 billion yuan in 2024 to 335 billion yuan by 2029, supported by demographic trends such as aging populations [21]. - **Trauma Products**: The trauma segment is expected to maintain steady growth, with a market size projected to reach 315 billion yuan by 2029 [21]. - **Sports Medicine**: The sports medicine market is anticipated to grow rapidly, from 41 billion yuan in 2022 to 145 billion yuan by 2027 [21]. Procurement Progress - The report details the progress of centralized procurement in the orthopedic sector, noting significant price reductions and increased participation from domestic manufacturers [25][29][36]. - The first round of national procurement for joint products resulted in an average price drop of 82%, with a follow-up procurement cycle expected to maintain moderate price reductions [26][31]. - The spine product procurement saw an average price reduction of 84%, with a high participation rate from manufacturers [31]. Domestic Replacement Rate - The report indicates a significant increase in the domestic replacement rate for orthopedic consumables, with joint products' domestic rate rising from 47% in 2020 to an expected 79% by 2024 [24]. - The spine and trauma segments are also experiencing similar trends, with domestic replacement rates projected to reach 80% and 91%, respectively, by 2024 [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, suggesting stock selection to emphasize alpha over beta, with a focus on distinct individual stock characteristics [2]. Core Insights - The automotive sector experienced a slight decline in investment sentiment, with expectations for a rebound in demand towards the end of June due to increased marketing efforts. The industry is anticipated to enter a seasonal lull in July and August, followed by a surge in new product launches and seasonal sales towards the end of the year [2]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of policies such as trade-in programs and changes in new energy vehicle purchase taxes on the industry [2]. Data Tracking - In April, wholesale passenger car sales reached 2.22 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11% but a month-on-month decrease of 10%. Retail sales for the same month were 1.59 million units, up 6% year-on-year but down 14% month-on-month [4]. - New energy vehicle deliveries from leading companies showed significant growth in May, with BYD delivering 380,000 units (up 15% year-on-year), and Li Auto and Xpeng also reporting substantial increases [4][19]. - The average discount rate in early June rose to 10.6%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous period and a 2.9 percentage point increase year-on-year [4]. Market Performance - The automotive sector index fell by 2.57% this week, ranking 23rd out of 29 sectors. The overall market indices also showed declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51% [7][28]. - The report notes that the automotive sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at 31, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages [28][34].