公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华懋科技（603306）深度研究报告 强推（首次） 汽车被动安全空间广阔，泛 AI 业务打造第二 增长曲线 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,213 | 2,908 | 3,494 | 4,186 | | 同比增速(%) | 7.7% | 31.4% | 20.2% | 19.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 277 | 590 | 748 | 934 | | 同比增速(%) | 14.6% | 112.7% | 26.8% | 24.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.84 | 1.79 | 2.27 | 2.84 | | 市盈率(倍) | 44 | 21 | 16 | 13 | | 市净率(倍) | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 5 月 15 日收盘价 汽车零部件Ⅲ 2025 年 05 月 15 日 ...

Valuation Factors - The report identifies that the EP, BP, and SP factors show strong predictive capabilities across different sample pools, while the PEG factor performs poorly [1][6][10] - The EP factor demonstrates significant returns, with notable performance across various industries, particularly in manufacturing [1][40] - The BP factor excels in asset-heavy industries such as utilities and finance, while the SP factor performs well in the TMT sector [1][40] Sources of Returns - The report states that the mispricing between valuation and fundamentals is the source of returns from valuation factors, with significant positive returns from low valuation-strong fundamentals combinations and negative returns from high valuation-weak fundamentals combinations [2][41][46] Long-term Effectiveness - Valuation factors are noted to be effective in the A-share market, although there is a potential for diminishing returns as the market becomes more institutionalized [3][59][75] - Historical data shows that the selected portfolios based on valuation factors achieved annualized returns of 14.87% in the CSI 800 and 19.11% in the CSI 1000, indicating the long-term effectiveness of these strategies [4][11] Industry Performance - The report highlights that the performance of valuation factors varies significantly across different industries, with the EP factor generally performing well across most sectors [40][41] - The BP factor shows strong performance in heavy asset industries, while the SP factor is particularly effective in the TMT sector [40][41] Investment Strategy - The report suggests constructing investment portfolios based on the mispricing of valuation and fundamentals, utilizing factors such as BP, EP, net profit growth rate, and ROE for selection [4][41][75] - The strategy emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals to achieve superior returns [7][75]

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 2、客座率：4 月：春秋(88.2%，同比-2.6%，环比-1.6%) > 吉祥(86.2%，同比 +2.9%，环比+1.6%) > 南航(85.6%，同比+2.5%，环比+0.8%) > 东航(85.4%， 同比+4.4%，环比+1.2%) > 国航(81.3%，同比+2.5%，环比+1.6%)； 1~4 月：春秋(90.0%，同比-1.1%) > 南航(85.4%，同比+2.4%) > 吉祥(84.6%， 同比-0.4%) > 东航(84.3%，同比+3.6%) > 国航(80.5%，同比+1.1%)。 1）整体来看：4 月：ASK 同比：春秋(12.5%) > 东航(9.7%) > 南航(8.8%) > 国 航(5.3%) > 吉祥(2.8%)，RPK 同比：东航(15.6%) > 南航(12.1%) > 春秋(9.3%) > 国航(8.6%) > 吉祥(6.3%)； 1~4 月累计：ASK 同比：春秋(8.3%) > 东航(7.3%) > 南航(5.8%) > 吉祥(5.7%) > 国航(3.3%) ，RPK 同比：东航(12.0%) > 南航(8.9%) > 春秋( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Geely Automobile, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][19]. Core Views - Geely Automobile reported excellent performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and a net profit of 5.7 billion yuan, up 41 million yuan year-on-year [2][9]. - The company is restructuring its organizational framework to enhance management efficiency and synergy under the "One Geely" strategy, following the acquisition of Zeekr Technology [4][9]. - The electric and intelligent transformation is progressing, with new models set to launch in 2025, and the integration of its four major brands is expected to reduce costs and increase efficiency [9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: In Q1 2025, Geely sold 700,000 vehicles, a 48% increase year-on-year, leading to a revenue of 72.5 billion yuan. The gross margin was 15.8%, with a net profit of 5.7 billion yuan, reflecting a significant improvement [9]. - **Future Projections**: The report forecasts total sales of 2.74 million, 3.24 million, and 3.75 million vehicles for 2025-2027, with corresponding revenues of 336.4 billion, 442.0 billion, and 514.2 billion yuan, respectively [9][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS for 2025 is 1.47 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 12.4 times [5][10]. Market Position and Valuation - The target price range for Geely is set between 23.89 and 28.66 HKD, with a potential upside of 21% to 45% based on historical valuation levels and recent market performance [6][9]. - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 198.94 billion HKD, with a current share price of 19.74 HKD [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommendation" rating to the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [2][19]. Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its energy internet business, driven by advancements in AI technology. The restructuring of non-core businesses has led to significant one-time financial impacts, but the focus on energy digitalization and AI applications is expected to enhance future performance [2][8]. - The company aims to transform into a leading AI-driven technology energy enterprise, benefiting from the trends of electricity marketization and digitalization [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 4.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -250 million yuan, down 141.4% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 670 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.37 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [2][4]. - The company forecasts a recovery in net profit, projecting 486 million yuan in 2025, 602 million yuan in 2026, and 736 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 294.1%, 23.8%, and 22.3% respectively [4][8]. Business Development Summary - The company has successfully restructured its non-core businesses, which has resulted in a one-time financial impact of approximately 490 million yuan. This restructuring is expected to allow the company to operate more efficiently moving forward [2][8]. - The energy internet business generated revenue of 1.8 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, and continued to grow in Q1 2025 [2][8]. - The company has made significant strides in AI applications, enhancing its operational capabilities in electricity market transactions, with a notable increase in trading volume [2][8]. Valuation Summary - The target price for the company is set at 15.74 yuan, based on a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35 times for 2025 [4][8]. - The current share price is 14.22 yuan, indicating potential upside based on the target price [4][8].

行业研究 非银行金融 2025 年 05 月 16 日 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 险资买入银行，社保增持地产 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 联系人：陈海椰 邮箱：chenhaiye@hcyjs.com 事项： 我们从上市公司前十大股东名单中筛选出险资、社保基金、基本养老金、企业年金 四类持股主体，分析四类长钱季度间风格变化。其中，险资剔除中国人寿集团持有国寿 股份，中国平安持有平安集团及员工长期计划。 根据业绩期披露时间节点，我们将形成每年三次的长钱重仓风格分析报告（如 24&25Q1，25Q2，25Q3），历史系统性梳理见此前外发报告《从重仓看中长期资金入市》。 评论： 一、险资重仓：增持交运、食饮，减持公用事业、石油石化 险资 24 年规模快速增长，股票与基金合计占比 12.7%。截至 2024 年底，保险行业资金 运用余额达到 33.26 万亿，同比增长 15%（披露口径）。2024 年，险资实现年化财务投资 收益率 3.43%，年化综合投 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electricity and public utilities sector, focusing on the recovery of thermal power profitability and the catalytic effects of green energy policies [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for significant profit recovery in the thermal power sector due to declining coal prices, which are expected to enhance profitability for thermal power companies [4][12]. - Water power companies are experiencing growth driven by improved water inflow, with some companies showing substantial profit increases [24][25]. - Nuclear power is facing short-term performance volatility but has long-term growth potential due to new unit installations [40][41]. - Green energy, particularly offshore wind, is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle, while traditional green energy companies are under pressure but may see a restructuring of market order [4][24]. Summary by Sections Thermal Power - **Performance**: In 2024, companies like Huadian Energy and Datang Power saw significant profit increases of 281.93% and 229.70%, respectively, driven by lower coal costs and increased electricity demand [7][8]. - **Outlook**: Continued decline in coal prices is expected to lead to excess profits for thermal power companies, with coal prices dropping significantly from 855 RMB/ton in 2024 to 721 RMB/ton in Q1 2025 [12][15]. Hydropower - **Performance**: In 2024, companies such as Shaoneng Co. and Guizhou Power reported profit increases of 128.83% and 86.26%, respectively, due to improved water inflow [24][26]. - **Outlook**: The potential for further profit improvement exists if water inflow during the flood season exceeds expectations [35]. Nuclear Power - **Performance**: In 2024, China Nuclear Power reported a revenue increase of 3.09% but a profit decline of 17.38% due to rising tax expenses [40]. - **Outlook**: The long-term growth potential remains strong with new nuclear units expected to come online, enhancing future profitability [41]. Green Energy - **Performance**: Offshore wind companies like Fujian Haifeng showed impressive growth, with some companies reporting a 43% increase in Q1 2025 [4][24]. - **Outlook**: The report suggests focusing on policy catalysts for offshore wind and the potential restructuring of traditional green energy companies due to market pressures [4][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][13]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a recovery in profitability, with a reported revenue of 1.856 billion yuan, down 12.59% year-on-year, and a net profit of 118 million yuan, down 37.30% year-on-year [1][6]. - The company has submitted an application for H-share listing, with funds expected to be allocated for R&D, manufacturing facilities, strategic investments, and debt repayment [6][1]. - The company is focusing on advancements in edge AI and robotics, aiming to capitalize on the trend of intelligent connectivity, with several new products expected to positively impact future performance [6][1]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 8.29 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% [1][7]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 594 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 11.1% year-on-year, but is expected to recover to 752 million yuan by 2026 [1][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.78 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32 [1][7]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the global IoT module market, with a strong focus on wireless communication and a commitment to enhancing its market position through investments in edge AI and robotics [6][1]. - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 21.249 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 14.794 billion yuan [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.2 CNY per share [2][8]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance showed revenue of 895 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114 million CNY, down 25.95% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to weak market demand and intensified industry competition [2][8]. - The report highlights a significant drop in investment income, which decreased by 295.63% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced fair value gains from financial assets held by a partnership [8]. - The company is expected to focus on enhancing its retail business and increasing market share in 2025-2026, with projected net profits of 1.077 billion CNY and 1.182 billion CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively [8]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 6.595 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% compared to 2024. The net profit is expected to be 1.077 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.1% [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.68 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17 times [4][8]. - The company's total assets are projected to reach 6.797 billion CNY by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.2% [9][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][4]. Core Insights - The company plans to invest $4 million in building an automated resin lens production line in Japan, aiming to enhance its global strategic layout and customization capabilities. The new facility is expected to increase production capacity by 20% compared to existing operations, targeting the North American market [2]. - The establishment of the Japanese factory is seen as a strategic move to mitigate potential tariff risks, improve service to Asia-Pacific customers, and replicate overseas factory construction experience in Thailand to reduce production costs [8]. - The company is positioned as a leader in lens manufacturing, with a dual strategy of self-branded products and ODM partnerships, particularly in the smart glasses sector, which is anticipated to drive future growth [8]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 2,061 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.1%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 3,538 million, maintaining a growth rate of 19.2% [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 428 million in 2024, growing to 839 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 24.6% [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 1.00 in 2024 to 1.75 in 2027, reflecting the company's improving profitability [4][9]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company's stock is set at 40.50 HKD, with the current price at 24.50 HKD, indicating significant upside potential [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 22.5 in 2024 to 12.9 by 2027, suggesting that the stock may become more attractive as earnings grow [4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 6.1 in 2024 to 2.4 in 2027, further indicating potential value appreciation [4].