Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Swire Properties (1972.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.55 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance met expectations, with improvements in the operation of shopping centers in mainland China. Retail sales in key locations such as Shanghai and Beijing showed positive growth, while declines in other areas were significantly reduced compared to 2024 [2][8]. - The report highlights the strong competitive advantage of Swire Properties due to its prime location shopping centers and robust leasing capabilities, which are expected to drive rental income growth in the coming years [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are HKD 14,428 million, HKD 14,616 million, HKD 14,995 million, and HKD 18,638 million respectively, with growth rates of -2.1%, 1.3%, 2.6%, and 24.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -HKD 766 million in 2024, increasing to HKD 2,676 million in 2025, HKD 4,132 million in 2026, and HKD 5,671 million in 2027, with growth rates of -129.0%, 449.3%, 54.4%, and 37.2% respectively [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -HKD 0.13 in 2024, HKD 0.46 in 2025, HKD 0.72 in 2026, and HKD 0.98 in 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The report notes that Swire Properties' shopping centers in Hong Kong maintained full occupancy, with slight improvements in retail sales growth compared to the previous year [8]. - The overall rental market for office spaces in Hong Kong remains under pressure due to oversupply, with an occupancy rate of 89% in Q1 [8]. Investment Recommendation - Swire Properties is characterized as a commercial real estate company that generates stable cash flow through holding assets with a competitive moat. The expected growth in net profit and consistent dividend growth of 5% annually supports the investment thesis [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 59.94 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 9.139 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.02%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.117 billion CNY, up 1.38% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.038 billion CNY, growing by 9.51% [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.607 billion CNY, a decline of 7.55% year-on-year, and a net profit of 120 million CNY, down 17.42% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is focusing on AI and robotics to drive the industrial revolution, aiming to enhance its core competitiveness through the integration of AI technology with industrial applications [8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is projected at 10.411 billion CNY, 11.802 billion CNY, and 13.294 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 13.9%, 13.4%, and 12.6% [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.279 billion CNY, 1.462 billion CNY, and 1.667 billion CNY for the same period, with growth rates of 14.5%, 14.3%, and 14.0% respectively [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.62 CNY, 1.85 CNY, and 2.11 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4][8]. Market Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in its market share in core products, with industrial automation and intelligent manufacturing solutions generating revenue of 5.643 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.86% [8]. - The internationalization strategy has been successful, with overseas revenue reaching 749 million CNY, a remarkable growth of 118.27% year-on-year [8]. - The company has also made strides in emerging industries, with the oil and gas sector showing a revenue increase of 47.84% year-on-year [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][4]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, indicating a potential operational turning point. Revenue for Q1 2025 reached 4.815 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.78%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million yuan, down 32.78% year-on-year. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 31.27% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company signed new sales contracts worth approximately 7.052 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a 1.25% year-on-year increase, alongside a significant production increase of 14.29% to approximately 1.049 million tons [7][8]. - The report highlights a decrease in gross margin to 9.83%, down 0.76 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to falling steel prices, with the average price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai at 3,400 yuan per ton, a 14% decline year-on-year [7][8]. - The company has scaled up the use of welding robots, which is expected to reduce costs. Nearly 2,000 welding robots have been deployed across its production bases, enhancing production efficiency and product quality [7][8]. - Future earnings are projected to improve, with expected EPS of 1.30, 1.51, and 1.75 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15x, 13x, and 11x [7][8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 21.514 billion yuan in 2024 to 29.837 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.1% [3][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 772 million yuan in 2024 to 1.207 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 15.7% [3][8]. - The company's total assets are projected to increase from 25.241 billion yuan in 2024 to 32.543 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a solid growth trajectory [8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车行业 4Q24 及 1Q25 财报总结 乘用车、零部件依然在规模增长通道，汇兑、 推荐（维持） 原材料、年降等因素有所扰动 ❑ 投资建议： 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 05 月 15 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张程航 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 证券分析师：夏凉 电话：021-20572532 邮箱：xialiang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522030001 证券分析师：李昊岚 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010003 联系人：林栖宇 邮箱：linxiyu@hcyjs.com 联系人：张睿希 邮箱：zhangruixi@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 232 | 0.03 | | 总市值(亿元) | 44,538.57 | 4.43 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 33,582.47 | 4.20 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][4]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, indicating a potential operational turning point. Revenue for Q1 2025 reached 4.815 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.78%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million yuan, a decline of 32.78% [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in production volume and new sales contracts, suggesting a recovery in demand. The production volume for steel structure products was approximately 1.0491 million tons, up 14.29% year-on-year, and the total new sales contracts signed amounted to about 7.052 billion yuan, a 1.25% increase year-on-year [7][8]. - The report notes a decrease in gross margin due to falling steel prices, with a gross margin of 9.83% in Q1 2025, down 0.76 percentage points year-on-year. The average price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,400 yuan per ton, a 14% decline year-on-year [7][8]. - The company has scaled up the use of welding robots, which is expected to reduce costs. Nearly 2,000 welding robots have been deployed across its production bases, enhancing production efficiency and product quality [7][8]. - Future earnings are projected to improve, with expected EPS of 1.30, 1.51, and 1.75 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15x, 13x, and 11x [7][8]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from 21.514 billion yuan in 2024 to 29.837 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.1% [3][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 772 million yuan in 2024 to 1.207 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 15.7% [3][8]. - The company's current price is 19.93 yuan, with a target price set at 25.97 yuan, indicating a potential upside [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 59.94 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 9.139 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.02%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.117 billion CNY, up 1.38% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.038 billion CNY, growing by 9.51% [2][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.607 billion CNY, a decline of 7.55% year-on-year, and a net profit of 120 million CNY, down 17.42% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is focusing on industrial AI and robotics to drive the transformation of process industries, aiming to become a global leader in industrial AI [8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is 10.411 billion CNY, 11.802 billion CNY, and 13.294 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 13.9%, 13.4%, and 12.6% [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.279 billion CNY, 1.462 billion CNY, and 1.667 billion CNY for the same period, with growth rates of 14.5%, 14.3%, and 14.0% respectively [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.62 CNY, 1.85 CNY, and 2.11 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4][8]. Market Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in its market share in core products, with industrial automation and intelligent manufacturing solutions revenue reaching 5.643 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.86% [8]. - The internationalization strategy has been successful, with overseas revenue reaching 749 million CNY, a growth of 118.27% year-on-year [8]. - The company has secured new contracts worth 1.355 billion CNY overseas, marking a growth of over 35% [8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 宠物行业 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报综述 成长是主旋律，分化逐渐成为明线 业绩综述：成长是主旋律，分化逐渐成为明线。 以自主品牌为主要驱动力的公司业绩表现优异。 1）抗风险能力：乖宝国内品牌龙头地位稳固，中宠北美产能强化全球 韧性。作为国内自主品牌龙头，乖宝凭借"麦富迪+弗列加特"双核驱动， 已形成超 67%的国内自有品牌收入结构。中宠股份依托全球化产能布 局构建安全垫，公司今年美国工厂产值经 24 年技改后有所提升，且加 拿大二厂将于 25H2、美国二厂将于 26 年年初投产，关税波动对公司 影响预计非常有限。 2）成长动能：乖宝高端化势能释放，中宠品牌进阶开启新阶段。乖宝 宠物高端化成效显著，推动品牌矩阵结构优化，24 年主粮毛利率达 44.70%。中宠股份品牌运营进入质变期，公司国内品牌矩阵规模于 24 年突破十亿大关后，已经实现盈利，预计有望随着规模效应与品牌力 提升，盈利能力逐年增强。 中宠股份于 2024 年品牌步入 10 亿大关且已经实现盈利，25 年品牌收入 增速有望进一步提升，代表着公司踏入乖宝所在的第一梯队行列。一季报 公布以来，强劲的股价体现其成长确定性 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 金融资产端与负债端的五个观察 ——2025 年 4 月金融数据点评 事 项 2025 年 4 月，新增社融 1.16 万亿（前值 5.89 万亿），新增人民币贷款 2800 亿 （前值 36400 亿）。社融存量同比增长 8.7%（前值 8.4%），M2 同比增长 8 % （前值 7%），旧口径 M1 同比增长-1%（前值-0.8%）。新口径 M1 同比增长 1.5% （前值 1.6%）。 ❖ 核心观点 1、从经济循环的视角来看，4 月企业居民存款剪刀差仍在持续改善，经济的 循环自 2024 年 9 月以来持续修复。 2、2025 年开年前四个月，非银机构新增存款规模处于过去五年最高值，背后 可能对应两个逻辑，一方面是居民存款搬家逻辑，另一方面是稳定房市股市预 期的背景下，央行加大投放稳定市场底部的逻辑。 3、从贷款数据层面，当下贷款总量偏弱的背景下，结构上存在两个变化，对 于居民而言，消费贷款趋势增长，经营贷款趋势回落；对于企业而言，短期贷 款趋势增长，中长期贷款趋势回落。 ❖ 金融资产端的三个数据观察： 1、4 月本身是信用扩张的小月 信用扩张规模存在较强的 ...

银行业策略深度报告 四维度再看当下银行配置机会 推荐（维持） ——银行配置策略报告系列一 前言： 行业研究 银行 2025 年 05 月 15 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 42 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 143,218.58 | 14.35 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 98,807.18 | 12.44 | 相对指数表现 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：贾靖 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 2025-05-11 《银行业重大事项点评：货币政策再发力，降成 本优结构主线延续——评 507 国新办发布会》 2025-05-09 《华创金融|红利资产 4 月报：险资 FVOCI 类资 产占比提升，银行平均股息率仍有 4. ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) to "Strong Buy" due to sufficient potential and acceleration catalysts [1][6]. Core Views - Nongfu Spring is positioned as a leading player in the beverage industry, with a strong brand and solid channel foundation. The company is expected to achieve steady growth in the long term, particularly in the packaging water and sugar-free tea segments [6][3]. - The report anticipates that the company's market share in packaging water will steadily increase, driven by the high-frequency demand for drinking water and the rising packaging rate in China [6][3]. - The sugar-free tea segment, represented by the "Oriental Leaf" brand, is expected to benefit from the health trend and has significant growth potential, with the company's market share remaining stable at over 70% [6][3]. - The report highlights the company's proactive marketing strategies and product matrix expansion, which are expected to enhance sales performance during the peak season [6][3]. Financial Summary - Main revenue projections for Nongfu Spring are as follows: - 2024: 42,896 million - 2025E: 49,356 million (15.1% YoY growth) - 2026E: 55,196 million (11.8% YoY growth) - 2027E: 60,933 million (10.4% YoY growth) [2][3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 12,123 million in 2024 to 17,932 million in 2027, with corresponding YoY growth rates of 0.4%, 17.2%, 13.5%, and 11.3% [2][3]. - The report maintains EPS forecasts of 1.26, 1.43, and 1.59 for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 28, 25, and 23 [6][3]. Target Price - The target price for Nongfu Spring is set at 48 HKD, with the current price at 38.9 HKD, indicating a potential upside [3][6].