Group 1: Earnings Forecast Overview - The earnings forecast for the mid-year report shows a positive rate of 44%, with high proportions in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors[4] - A total of 1,564 A-share listed companies disclosed their 2025 mid-year earnings forecasts, with 690 companies expecting growth and 869 companies expecting declines[5] - The overall net profit growth rate calculated using the disclosed companies is 75%[5] Group 2: Sector Performance - The leading sectors in terms of positive forecasts include electronics (73 companies), chemicals (59 companies), and machinery (56 companies)[10] - Conversely, the sectors with the highest number of negative forecasts are chemicals (72 companies), pharmaceuticals (61 companies), and machinery (55 companies)[10] - The forecasted earnings for 2025 show improvements in financial sectors, while consumer sectors are expected to weaken[16] Group 3: Historical Comparison - The 2025 mid-year positive forecast rate of 44% is slightly lower than 47% in 2024 and 48% in 2023, remaining consistent with 2022[13] - The proportion of companies with upward revisions to their earnings forecasts has increased significantly, reaching 76% as of July 21, 2025, compared to 39% in April[13] Group 4: Profit Changes in Industrial Enterprises - Industrial profits have shown significant improvement, particularly in upstream cyclical industries such as fuel processing and non-metallic minerals, with profit growth rates improving from Q1[17] - The manufacturing sector has also seen slight improvements, particularly in electrical machinery and furniture manufacturing[17] Group 5: Stock Recommendations - A strategy has been developed to identify stocks likely to exceed expectations in the mid-year report, including Great Wall Motors, Haoneng Co., and Midea Group[19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with an expectation that the industry index will exceed the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [3][52]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the prices of broilers and chicks have remained stable, with profits in the breeding sector showing some recovery. However, there are significant losses in the broiler farming and hatching sectors [1][43]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of poultry consumption in the context of economic recovery, as well as the impact of external factors such as avian influenza on supply chains [46]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The industry consists of 101 listed companies with a total market value of 1,395.44 billion and a circulating market value of 1,070.09 billion [3]. Price Trends - In June, the average price of broilers was 7.18 yuan/kg, down 0.07% year-on-year and down 3% month-on-month. The average price of chicken products was 8,687.5 yuan/ton, down 6% year-on-year and down 2% month-on-month [11][8]. - The average price of chicks in June was 2.29 yuan/chick, a decrease of 21% month-on-month and 4% year-on-year [8][11]. Production Capacity - As of June 2025, the average stock of parent stock was 23.17 million sets, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year but a decrease of 2.8% month-on-month. The average stock of backup parent stock was 15.57 million sets, down 1.9% year-on-year and up 3.8% month-on-month [34][27]. Sales Performance - In June, the sales revenue of Yisheng Co. for parent and commercial chicks was 1.29 billion, down 13.58% year-on-year and down 25.54% month-on-month. The sales volume was 0.61 billion, up 17.68% year-on-year but down 7.26% month-on-month [14]. - The sales revenue of Shengnong Development for chicken was 11.64 billion, up 4.30% year-on-year and up 1.04% month-on-month, with a sales volume of 12.32 million, up 3.18% year-on-year [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shengnong Development, Yisheng Co., and Hefeng Co. due to their potential for profit improvement and valuation recovery in the context of expected consumption recovery [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints - "Anti-involution" policies are accelerating at the macro level, and inflation expectations are starting to bottom out. At the industry level, since June, "anti-involution" has been advanced mainly through self-discipline, and some industries have formed certain price increase expectations [4][7]. - By reviewing historical similar policy environments, the current "anti-involution" situation has similarities with the policy backgrounds in 2016 and 2021. Although this round may be advanced more from the industry self-discipline level, it is expected that the price increase expectations of key industries will be realized, and attention should be paid to the investment opportunities brought about by the improvement of profit expectations in related industries [4][23]. - Last week, the convertible bond market rose, and the valuation reached a high level. Five convertible bonds announced redemptions, and the total scale of bonds to be issued is about 7 billion yuan [1][24]. Summary by Directory 1. "Anti-involution" Historical Review and Current Concerns - **Policy Progress**: Since the Politburo meeting in July 2024 proposed to prevent "involutionary" vicious competition, to the official proposal by the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1, 2025, to govern the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity, the "anti-involution" policy has continued to exert force [4][7]. - **Industry Trends**: Since June, industries such as automobiles, photovoltaics, and most upstream cyclical industries have launched initiatives or collective production reduction plans by leading enterprises, and the market associates this round of "anti-involution" with the price increase logic under the production capacity optimization in 2016 and 2021 [4][7]. - **Historical Comparison**: In 2016, the supply - side reform focused on the coal and steel industries. In 2021, due to the demand for meeting the dual - control targets of energy consumption and the rise in coal prices, power and production restrictions were implemented in many places, and the PPI increased significantly. The current situation has similarities with these two historical periods, and the "anti-involution" this time may be more concentrated in the middle and lower reaches, with a high proportion of private enterprises [4][23]. 2. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Weekly, and Valuation Reached a High Level - **Weekly Market Conditions**: Last week, the main stock indexes rose, and the convertible bond market followed suit. There are 477 issued but unexpired convertible bonds, with a balance of 648.241 billion yuan. Some bonds have not yet been listed for trading, and there are currently no bonds to be issued [24]. - **Valuation Performance**: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds increased by 0.68% compared with the previous Friday. The premium rates of high - rated and large - scale convertible bonds increased. The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate increased by 1.32 pct compared with the previous Friday [32]. 3. Terms and Supply: Five Convertible Bonds Announced Redemptions, and the Total Scale of Bonds to be Issued is about 7 Billion Yuan - **Terms**: As of July 18, 5 convertible bonds announced redemptions, and Lingkang Convertible Bond's board of directors proposed a downward revision. Some bonds announced non - early redemptions, and some announced that they were expected to meet the redemption conditions. 4 convertible bonds announced no downward revisions, and 12 were expected to trigger downward revisions [1][50]. - **Primary Market**: Last week, Xizhen and Yongxi Convertible Bonds were listed, with a total scale of 1.685 billion yuan. This week, Libo Convertible Bond will be listed, with a scale of 750 million yuan. There were no new convertible bond issuances. Last week, Tonglian Precision added a board of directors' plan, and the total scale of bonds to be issued is about 7 billion yuan [1][53].

杠杆资金净流入创2月下旬以来新高，IPO大幅回暖 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2025年7月22日 证券分析师:姚佩 联系人:朱冬墨 执业编号: S0360522120004 邮箱:zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 该告仅样够加及养南喷责任公司的客户使用。本公司不会因傻切人收到体报告而视真为客户、华创证券对这些信息的唯职单和完整也不作任何例证。报告中的内容和周见仅供参考，并不知成本公司对所述汇券买 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 部箱: yaopei@hcyjs.com 1 Felit > 证券研究报告 核心结论 资金流动性: . 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号:证监许可（2009）1210 号 2）资金需求端IPO大幅回暖处近三年96%分位，南向资金连续九周维持周均规模百亿以上净流入，累计净流入近 交易拥挤度：以过去四周成交额占比/市值占比（较全A）作为衡量主题行业交易热度的表征指标来看，本周热度 分位（下同）上行行业主要为：光伏+32pct至71%、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain" for Huasheng Lithium [3][7]. Core Views - The report highlights the delivery of key equipment for solid-state batteries by Nakanor, marking a technological breakthrough in the solid-state battery equipment field [11]. - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between Huasheng Lithium and Anwa New Energy to collaborate on research and development in lithium-ion battery materials, particularly solid-state battery materials [11]. - The electric new energy sector saw a weekly increase of 2.68%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.86 percentage points [7][12]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Key Equipment Delivery and Cooperation - Nakanor's solid-state battery key equipment has been officially delivered to leading customers, indicating a shift towards industrial application [11]. - Huasheng Lithium and Anwa New Energy have established a cooperative framework to enhance their technological and market capabilities [11]. Section 2: Market Performance Review - The electric new energy sector increased by 0.5% this week, ranking 15th among 30 industry sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 1.09% [12]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included vehicle motor control (4.83%), motors (3.38%), and energy storage (2.72%) [12]. Section 3: New Energy Vehicle Industry Tracking - The report tracks the lithium battery supply chain, noting a 2.21% increase in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices, now at 64,800 CNY per ton [33]. - Cobalt and nickel prices showed slight increases, while some electrolyte prices decreased [34]. Section 4: Valuation Situation - As of July 18, 2025, the electric new energy sector's valuation stands at 62x, ranking 6th among all sectors, while the CSI 300 index is at 13x [24]. - Specific sub-sectors like motors and energy storage have significantly higher valuations at 321x and 228x, respectively [24]. Section 5: Important Listed Company Announcements - Tianqi Lithium's subsidiary signed a procurement cooperation agreement to supply at least 550,000 tons of electrolyte products [46]. - Huasheng Lithium announced a government subsidy of 2 million CNY [46]. Section 6: Important Industry Dynamics - Zangge Lithium was ordered to cease operations due to illegal lithium resource extraction [48]. - Guoxuan High-Tech's liquid cooling energy storage system received EU compliance certification [48].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" [2][12]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic CAD software market, focusing on an All-in-One CAx strategy to enhance its product offerings and market share [7][17]. - The CAD market in China is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the digital transformation of the manufacturing industry and strong policy support for domestic alternatives [8][13]. - The company has a robust competitive advantage due to its proprietary technology and comprehensive product matrix, which includes 2D CAD, 3D CAD, CAE, and CAM solutions [11][12]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024A is 888 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.3% [3]. - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024A is 64 million, reflecting a growth rate of 4.2% [3]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 15.6%, 16.7%, and 17.3% for the years 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E, respectively [12]. Business Overview - The company has a complete product line in CAD/CAE/CAM and has successfully penetrated international markets, selling products in over 90 countries [17]. - The 2D CAD segment accounted for 47% of revenue in 2024, while 3D CAD contributed 24% [7][12]. - The company is actively investing in educational products to cultivate user habits and expand its market reach [23][24]. Market Dynamics - The CAD market in China grew from 1.3 billion in 2016 to 5.48 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 22.82% [13]. - The market is still dominated by three major international players, but domestic companies are gaining ground due to national policies promoting self-sufficiency [13][49]. - The company holds a market share of 9.6% in the overall CAD market and 4.4% in the 3D CAD segment, ranking fourth among competitors [7][13]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its product capabilities and expanding its global distribution network to drive future growth [12][29]. - The All-in-One CAx strategy aims to integrate design, simulation, and manufacturing processes, creating a cohesive platform that increases customer loyalty [11][12]. - The company plans to continue its overseas localization strategy to optimize its global marketing efforts [12][29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the cyclical resource sector are in a valuation trough, which is expected to be positively impacted by three major policy benefits: (1) anti-involution; (2) debt resolution; (3) infrastructure investment [11][13][15] - The Hong Kong dividend assets have a higher dividend yield compared to A-shares, with a long-term higher dividend premium [12][19] - The investment value of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE dividend strategy includes: (1) high dividend and low valuation, emphasizing absolute return attributes; (2) focusing on leading SOEs in petrochemicals, communications, transportation, and coal; (3) significant long-term return advantages; (4) long-term performance superior to the overall Hong Kong market, characterized by high dividends and high free cash flow [12][24][41] Group 2 - The industry distribution focuses on high-dividend SOEs in cyclical sectors, with significant weights in oil and petrochemicals (29%), communications (23%), transportation (14%), and coal (11%) [28][30] - The long-term performance of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE dividend index shows a cumulative increase of 118% since early 2017, closely approaching the 129% increase of the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index [5][36] - The constituent stocks of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE dividend index have outperformed the overall Hong Kong market, with an average net profit growth rate of 12% since 2015, significantly higher than the overall Hong Kong average of 4.7% [6][41] Group 3 - The Invesco Great Wall CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend ETF (520990) is designed to closely track the performance of the CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index, providing investors with a tool to invest in the Hong Kong SOE dividend sector [50][51] - The fund was established on June 26, 2024, and aims to minimize tracking deviation and error to achieve returns similar to the underlying index [50][51]

Liquidity and Fund Flow - Leverage funds continue to see net inflows, reaching a new high since late February, with net inflow of 268 billion CNY last week, placing it in the 90th percentile over the past three years[13] - Southbound funds maintained an average weekly net inflow exceeding 10 billion CNY for nine consecutive weeks, totaling nearly 1700 billion CNY[6] - IPO financing surged to 181.7 billion CNY, representing the 71st percentile over the past three years[26] Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the photovoltaic sector increased by 32 percentage points to 71%, while real estate rose by 27 percentage points to 60%[56] - The building materials sector saw a 25 percentage point increase to 66%, indicating heightened trading activity[56] - Conversely, the chemical sector decreased by 13 percentage points to 59%, and media fell by 9 percentage points to 58%[56] Investor Sentiment - Retail investor net inflow decreased to 566 billion CNY, down 321 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it in the 13.7th percentile over the past five years[2] - The search interest for self-media platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin has declined from previous highs, indicating a cooling in market enthusiasm[69] - The trend of public funds clustering has weakened, with a shift towards value stocks, particularly in electronics, cyclical, and consumer sectors[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in the liquor sector and food products [1] Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing extreme pressure testing, with a significant focus on inventory clearance and bottoming out of financial reports. The second quarter has shown weak demand due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to a notable decline in sales and pricing pressures [5][10] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai are expected to maintain growth, while mid-tier brands face challenges with declining revenues and profits. The overall industry is in a deep clearance phase, with potential for recovery as regulations stabilize [5][12] - The consumer goods sector shows mixed performance, with snacks and beverages remaining strong, while other segments like frozen foods and chain restaurants face ongoing demand pressures [20][25] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is experiencing extreme pressure, with weak demand in the second quarter and significant inventory levels. Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to show modest growth, while others like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are facing declines [5][11][12] - Moutai's revenue is projected to grow by 7% in Q2, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 1% increase. In contrast, brands like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are forecasted to decline by 35% and 8% respectively [11][12] 2. Consumer Goods - The overall demand for consumer goods remains weak, but segments like snacks and beverages are performing well. For instance, East Peak is expected to see a 33% increase in revenue, while other snack brands are also showing positive trends [20][25] - The beverage sector is projected to see positive growth, with major brands like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing expected to report increases in revenue and profit [25][26] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-performing stocks in the short term while considering long-term investments in liquor brands that are currently at their bottom. Brands like Moutai and Gujing are recommended for their lower risk profiles [7][8] - For consumer goods, companies like Anqi and East Peak are highlighted for their growth potential, while traditional dairy brands like Yili and Mengniu are suggested for a bundled investment approach [7][8]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the weekly change rate of the "total heat" indicator for broad-based indices. It selects the index with the highest heat change rate for investment, while staying out of the market if the "Other" group has the highest rate[7][13][16] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly heat change rate for each broad-based index (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and "Other"). 2. Smooth the weekly change rate using a 2-period moving average (MA2). 3. On the last trading day of each week, invest in the index with the highest MA2 heat change rate. If the "Other" group has the highest rate, remain in cash. **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates a clear logic of capturing short-term market sentiment shifts based on heat changes[13][16] - **Model Name**: Concept Heat TOP and BOTTOM Portfolios **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies the hottest concepts each week and constructs two portfolios based on the highest and lowest heat stocks within these concepts[30][32][34] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select the top 5 concepts with the largest weekly heat change rates. 2. Exclude the bottom 20% of stocks in terms of market capitalization within the selected concepts. 3. Construct the "TOP" portfolio by equally weighting the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat within each concept. 4. Construct the "BOTTOM" portfolio by equally weighting the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat within each concept. **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures behavioral biases in concept-driven markets, where low-heat stocks in hot concepts tend to generate excess returns over time[30][32][34] --- Model Backtesting Results - **Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy**: - Annualized Return: 8.74% - Maximum Drawdown: 23.5% - 2025 YTD Return: 14.7%[16] - **Concept Heat BOTTOM Portfolio**: - Annualized Return: 15.71% - Maximum Drawdown: 28.89% - 2025 YTD Return: 25.5%[34] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Total Heat Indicator **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aggregates the browsing, watchlist, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized as a percentage of the total market, and scaled by 10,000[7] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Aggregate the browsing, watchlist, and click counts for each stock. 2. Normalize the aggregated value as a percentage of the total market. 3. Multiply the normalized value by 10,000 to obtain the total heat score. The range of the indicator is [0, 10,000][7] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor serves as a proxy for market sentiment and attention, effectively capturing behavioral patterns such as overpricing or underreaction at the stock level[7] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Total Heat Indicator**: - No specific backtesting results provided for this factor in isolation