Investment Chain - Real estate investment cumulative year-on-year growth rate has rebounded to -9.80% as of February 2025, while fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth rate has increased to 4.10% [7] - Infrastructure construction investment cumulative year-on-year growth rate has risen to 9.95%, while manufacturing fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth rate has decreased to 9.00% [7] - Prices of copper, lead, tin, nickel, zinc, gold, and silver have increased since March 2025, while aluminum prices have decreased [7] Consumption Chain - The nominal year-on-year growth rate of social consumption has increased to 4.00% in February 2025, with cumulative nominal year-on-year growth also at 4.00% [8] - Automobile sales have seen a year-on-year growth rate rebound to 34.42% in February 2025 [8] - Retail sales of home appliances have increased by 46.67% year-on-year in December 2024 [8] Export Chain - The year-on-year growth rate of exports to ASEAN has increased, while exports to the US, EU, and Japan have decreased [9] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rates for agricultural products, refined oil, coal, steel, and aluminum have risen, while exports of furniture, toys, and automotive parts have declined [9] - The electronic export amount has increased by 7.75% year-on-year in February 2025 [9] Price Chain - Oil prices have decreased, with WTI falling to $69.00 per barrel as of March 25, 2025 [10] - Prices for PVC and MDI have also seen declines, with PVC futures at 5084 yuan/ton and pure MDI at 18000 yuan/ton [10] - Pork prices have dropped to 15.19 yuan/kg as of March 19, 2025, while white sugar prices have increased [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target valuation range of 10.19 to 11.76 CNY based on a PE ratio of 13-15x for 2025 [7][13]. Core Views - The company is focusing on expanding its scale advantages and targeting growth in global southern markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, where it has achieved a revenue increase of 6% and a significant gross margin improvement of 5.8 percentage points [7]. - Despite challenges in the European market, the company has managed to optimize its product structure and reduce costs, resulting in a gross margin increase of 2.4 percentage points [7]. - The company is advancing its electric logistics development through strategic collaborations, aiming to innovate in the electric head-trailer technology [7]. Financial Performance and Forecast - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 20.998 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%, with a net profit of 1.085 billion CNY, down 55.8% [6][7]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 is expected to be 18.0%, with a net margin of 4.3% [7]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22.350 billion CNY, 24.429 billion CNY, and 26.727 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.469 billion CNY, 1.662 billion CNY, and 1.788 billion CNY [6][7]. Market Comparison - The company has entered 50 countries and regions, establishing a strong sales presence in the southern global markets, which account for 34% of the total export volume of Chinese trailers [7]. - The report compares the company's valuation with peers, indicating a reasonable valuation range based on industry standards [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.574 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.81%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 325 million yuan, up 20.15% year-on-year [7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 3.0 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 106 million yuan, which accounts for 55% of the 2024 net profit, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.8% [7] - The cotton socks business is expected to continue stable growth, with a revenue of 1.84 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.0% [7] - The seamless business has recovered, with a revenue of 661 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [7] - The company aims to strengthen team building and implement incentive mechanisms to enhance employee engagement and performance [7] - The estimated revenue for 2025-2027 is projected to be 2.854 billion, 3.321 billion, and 3.838 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 382 million, 443 million, and 515 million yuan [7] Financial Data and Forecast - The company's revenue for 2023 was 2.281 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 12.8% in 2024 [6] - The net profit for 2023 was 270 million yuan, with a forecasted increase of 20.2% in 2024 [6] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 28.8%, an increase of 2.82 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The diluted EPS for 2024 is projected to be 0.92 yuan [6] - The return on equity is expected to rise to 13.0% in 2024 [6]

【角 和 :: HAITONC 宏观研究 证券研究报告 2025年3月27日 相关研究 《广义支出有待加快 -- 2024年4月财 政数据点评》2024.05.21 《外需仍偏稳,内需待提振 -- 2024年4 月经济数据点评》2024.05.17 《通胀略有缓解,降息预期稳定 -- 美国 2024年4月物价数据点评》2024.05.16 证书:S0850520120001 分析师:李林芷 Tel:(021)23185646 Email:llz13859@haitong.com 证书: S0850524050002 增速回落,结构分化 -1-2月工业企业利润数据点评 投资要点: · 利润增速回落,结构有调整。1-2月工业企业利润增速较去年 12月回落,虽 然有去年同期高基数的影响,但核心问题还在于量和利润率的下滑。行业分 化依然明显,不过结构较前期有所变化。上中游部分行业受需求平淡、利润 率回落影响,利润增速有所下滑,下游行业中的酒饮料茶、汽车等行业则受 益于消费复苏、政策补贴、利润率改善等因素,带动下游行业利润占比回升。 后续需要结构性政策加码发力,叠加全球补库共振,或开启主动补库周期。 但如果需求未有明显 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 宏观研究 证券研究报告 月经济数据点评》2024.05.17 《通胀略有缓解，降息预期稳定——美国 2024 年 4 月物价数据点评》2024.05.16 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《广义支出有待加快——2024 年 4 月财 政数据点评》2024.05.21 《外需仍偏稳，内需待提振——2024 年 4 宏观快报点评 2025 年 3 月 27 日 增速回落，结构分化 ——1-2 月工业企业利润数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 利润增速回落，结构有调整。1-2 月工业企业利润增速较去年 12 月回落，虽 然有去年同期高基数的影响，但核心问题还在于量和利润率的下滑。行业分 化依然明显，不过结构较前期有所变化。上中游部分行业受需求平淡、利润 率回落影响，利润增速有所下滑，下游行业中的酒饮料茶、汽车等行业则受 益于消费复苏、政策补贴、利润率改善等因素，带动下游行业利润占比回升。 后续需要结构性政策加码发力，叠加全球补库共振，或开启主动补库周期。 但如果需求未有明显提振，需警惕产能过剩与通缩压力。 风险提示：外需超预期回落，稳增长政策效果不 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profit management, with a 116.2% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, reaching 250 million yuan, despite a 4.93% decline in total revenue [7][11]. - The company is focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements, resulting in a 5.97% reduction in sales, management, and R&D expenses [7]. - The introduction of an AI-driven solution for the construction industry is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge and drive future growth [11]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 6,240 million yuan, a decrease of 4.93% year-on-year, while the net profit was 250 million yuan, reflecting a 116.2% increase [6][7]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 6,324 million yuan, with a net profit forecast of 502 million yuan, indicating a growth of 100.6% [6][11]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 84.3% in 2024 to 85.1% by 2027 [6][12]. Business Segment Analysis - The digital cost business is projected to generate revenue of 4,986 million yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 93.42% [12]. - The digital construction segment is expected to see a revenue of 786.87 million yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 35.87% [12]. - The overseas business is anticipated to grow, with revenue reaching 203.45 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.08% [12]. Valuation and Market Position - The estimated market value range for the company is between 307.48 billion yuan and 338.46 billion yuan, with a reasonable value per share estimated between 18.61 yuan and 20.49 yuan [11]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the upcoming market reforms in construction pricing, which will enhance data service capabilities and accelerate AI integration [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 42.75 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.71 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year. The core operating profit for 2024 was 6.23 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.7% increase year-on-year, with a core operating profit margin of 14.6%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points [4][7]. - The company anticipates a year-end dividend of 2.53 billion yuan, with an overall dividend payout ratio of approximately 95%, corresponding to a dividend yield of about 5% [4][7]. Revenue Breakdown - The restaurant operating revenue was 40.40 billion yuan, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, with revenue contributions from first, second, third-tier cities, and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan at 17.7%, 38.7%, 40.0%, and 3.6% respectively. Other restaurant revenue grew by 39.6% to 480 million yuan, driven by the "Pomegranate Plan" and various innovative dining brands [5]. - The takeaway business generated 1.25 billion yuan, up 20.4% year-on-year, attributed to the launch of a single-person meal service in the second half of 2023. Sales from condiments and ingredients decreased by 27.1% to 580 million yuan [5]. Brand Development and Performance - As of the end of 2024, the company operated a total of 1,368 restaurants, including 1,355 self-operated and 13 franchised, with 62 new openings and 70 closures or relocations. The introduction of a franchise model has seen over 70% of applications coming from third-tier cities and below [6]. - The average customer spending was 97.5 yuan, a decrease of approximately 1.6% year-on-year, while the average table turnover rate was 4.1 times per day, an increase of 0.3 times per day [6]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The cost of raw materials and consumables decreased by 4.3% to 16.21 billion yuan, accounting for 37.9% of revenue, while employee costs rose by 8.2% to 14.11 billion yuan, making up 33.0% of revenue [7]. - The company expects continued improvements in single-store efficiency and accelerated expansion through its franchise strategy and brand incubation, projecting net profits of 5.15 billion yuan, 5.59 billion yuan, and 6.07 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.3%, 8.6%, and 8.5% [7][10]. Valuation and Price Target - The reasonable value range for the stock is estimated between 19.4 and 23.0 Hong Kong dollars per share, based on a 20-23 times PE ratio and a 10-12 times EV/EBITDA ratio for 2025 [7][10].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/信息服务 证券研究报告 行业专题报告 2025 年 03 月 27 日 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 资料来源：海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《DeepSeek V3 完成小版本升级，推理/ 开发/中文/搜索等多领域能力均有增强》 2025.03.27 《计算机行业跟踪周报 372 期：华为将持 续投入 AI，腾讯计划加大 Capex》 2025.03.23 《消费贷新政落地，收单行业有望受益消 费复苏》2025.03.22 分析师:杨林 Tel:(021)23183969 Email:yl11036@haitong.com 证书:S0850517080008 分析师:杨蒙 Tel:(021)23185700 Email:ym13254@haitong.com 证书:S0850523090001 联系人:朱瑶 Tel:(021)23187261 Email:zy15988@haitong.com 联系人:张盛海 Tel:(021)23183956 Email:zsh16249@haitong ...

[Table_MainInfo] 资料来源：海通证券研究所 行业研究/信息服务 证券研究报告 行业跟踪报告 2025 年 03 月 27 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -19.79% -5.78% 8.22% 22.23% 36.23% 50.24% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 信息服务 海通综指 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《计算机行业跟踪周报 372 期：华为将持 续投入 AI，腾讯计划加大 Capex》 2025.03.23 《消费贷新政落地，收单行业有望受益消 费复苏》2025.03.22 《《人工智能生成合成内容标识办法》发 布，推动人工智能产业健康有序发展》 2025.03.17 分析师:杨林 Tel:(021)23183969 Email:yl11036@haitong.com 证书:S0850517080008 分析师:杨昊翊 Tel:(021)23185620 Email:yhy15080@haitong.com Email:ym13254@haitong.c ...

[Table_MainInfo] 每日报告精选 证券研究报告 | | | | 名称 | 日涨跌% | 周涨跌% | 年涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海通风格指数 | | | | | 大盘 100 | -0.50 | -0.68 | -3.09 | | 小盘 200 | 0.78 | -3.92 | 7.61 | | 表现最好前五行业 | | | | | 农业指数 | 1.49 | 0.29 | 0.83 | | 汽车汽配 | 1.19 | -2.82 | 6.59 | | 综合行业 | 1.13 | -0.65 | -1.68 | | 非金属 | 0.88 | -2.28 | 8.82 | | 纺织服装 | 0.84 | -3.57 | 2.49 | | 表现最差前五行业 | | | | | 金融指数 | -0.75 | -1.93 | -1.23 | | 有色金属 | -0.56 | -1.22 | 13.19 | | 公用事业 | -0.42 | 0.85 | -3.41 | | 钢铁指数 | -0.20 | -0.16 | 8.79 | | 家电器具 | -0.20 ...