信用债收益率跟随利率下行 7 年期品种表现强势 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 3信用债收益率跟随利率下行 7 年期品种表现强势 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com [➢Table_Summary] 信用债收益率跟随利率下行，7 年期品种表现强势。本周利率债收益率整体 下行，1Y 和 3Y 期国开债收益率下行 2BP，5Y、7Y 和 10Y 期国开债收益率 下行 3BP。信用债收益率跟随下行，7Y 期品种下行幅度最大。1Y 期各等 级信用债收益率下行 2BP；3Y 期各等级信用债收益率下行 2-3BP；5Y 期 各等级信用债收益率下行 1-3BP；7Y 期各等级收益率下行 4BP；10Y 期 AAA、AA+和 AA 等级收益率 ...

- The report introduces the dividend forecast for stock index futures contracts during their duration, predicting dividend points for CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices as 73.53, 68.56, 52.96, and 65.86 respectively[9][11][16] - The dividend-adjusted annualized basis calculation is explained as: Annualized Basis = (Actual Basis + (Expected) Dividend Points) / Index Price × 360 / Remaining Days of Contract[20] - CSI 500 futures contract IC2507 predicts dividend points of 20.73, IC2509 predicts 30.13, and IC2512 predicts 30.13, with a dividend ratio of 0.53% during the next season contract duration[9] - CSI 300 futures contract IF2507 predicts dividend points of 34.94, IF2509 predicts 48.09, and IF2512 predicts 48.4, with a dividend ratio of 1.26% during the next season contract duration[11] - SSE 50 futures contract IH2507 predicts dividend points of 40.11, IH2509 predicts 44.54, and IH2512 predicts 44.97, with a dividend ratio of 1.68% during the next season contract duration[16] - CSI 1000 futures contract IM2507 predicts dividend points of 18.42, IM2509 predicts 22.63, and IM2512 predicts 22.73, with a dividend ratio of 0.38% during the next season contract duration[18] - CSI 500 futures contract IC's dividend-adjusted annualized basis rose to -8.70% from a weekly low of -9.76%[21] - CSI 300 futures contract IF's dividend-adjusted annualized basis fell to -2.54% from a weekly high of -1.77%[27] - SSE 50 futures contract IH's dividend-adjusted annualized basis rose to 0.91% from a weekly low of 0.40%[33] - CSI 1000 futures contract IM's dividend-adjusted annualized basis rose to -12.34% from a weekly low of -14.89%[40] - The continuous hedging strategy and minimum basis strategy are introduced, with parameters including holding corresponding total return indices for the spot side and shorting futures contracts with equal nominal principal for the hedging side[45][46][47] - CSI 500 futures hedging strategy results: Annualized returns for monthly continuous hedging, seasonal continuous hedging, and minimum basis strategy are -2.75%, -1.97%, and -0.95% respectively, with volatility of 3.89%, 4.78%, and 4.70%[48] - CSI 300 futures hedging strategy results: Annualized returns for monthly continuous hedging, seasonal continuous hedging, and minimum basis strategy are 0.60%, 0.88%, and 1.44% respectively, with volatility of 3.03%, 3.38%, and 3.17%[50][54] - SSE 50 futures hedging strategy results: Annualized returns for monthly continuous hedging, seasonal continuous hedging, and minimum basis strategy are 1.10%, 2.04%, and 1.76% respectively, with volatility of 3.15%, 3.58%, and 3.16%[55][58] - CSI 1000 futures hedging strategy results: Annualized returns for monthly continuous hedging, seasonal continuous hedging, and minimum basis strategy are -5.99%, -4.36%, and -3.68% respectively, with volatility of 4.74%, 5.78%, and 5.60%[59][60] - Cinda-VIX index reflects market volatility expectations, with 30-day VIX values for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices at 16.54, 17.01, 25.03, and 22.92 respectively[63][65] - Cinda-SKEW index captures implied volatility skew characteristics, with values for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices at 101.73, 106.09, 97.81, and 105.04 respectively[72][75]

[Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 6 月 20 日 5 月交易盘止盈情绪升温 银行大量承接供给带来负债压力 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 —— 2025 年 5 月债券托管数据点评 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summary] 摘要：5 月债券总托管规模环比上升 21633 亿元，较 4 月多增 5557 亿 元，主要是受到国债和政金债净融资规模大幅上升的影响，而地方债、 同业存单和信用债的托管增量环比均小幅下降。 ➢ 5 月降准降息后的止盈情绪以及政府债供给压力的抬升是影响机构行为 的重要因素。5 月上旬央行降准降息落地，尽管资金利率中枢也跟随政 策利率回落，但仍然存在一定的波动，而在长短端利差大幅压缩后，非 银机构的止盈情绪升温，叠加中旬中美贸易谈判取得积极进展，使得广 义基金与券商均大幅减持利率债，保险公司也转为减 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in business volume, outperforming the industry with a 31.76% year-on-year increase in express logistics business volume in May 2025, exceeding the industry growth rate by 14.6 percentage points [2] - The company is expected to enter a period of investment returns, with a reduction in capital expenditures and an improvement in profit margins due to network integration [4] - The international business is anticipated to open a second growth curve, supported by the operational capabilities of the Ezhou Airport and an expanding global air network [5][6] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 251.13 billion yuan in May 2025, reflecting an 11.34% year-on-year growth [2] - The express logistics business volume reached 1.477 billion pieces, indicating a robust growth trajectory [2] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 11.91 billion yuan, 14.26 billion yuan, and 16.85 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 19.7%, and 18.2% respectively [7] - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 12.8% in 2023 to 14.8% by 2027 [8] Cash Flow and Investment - The company's free cash flow is expected to grow significantly, from 126.55 billion yuan in 2023 to 215.08 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 69.96% year-on-year increase [3] - Capital expenditures are projected to decrease, indicating a shift towards a return on investment phase [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is transitioning into a comprehensive logistics leader, diversifying into express delivery, cold chain, and international logistics, with new business segments achieving market leadership [7] - The operational efficiency improvements through data analysis and route optimization are expected to enhance overall capacity utilization [2][3]

Overview - Since the beginning of 2025, the A-share market has experienced a slight net outflow of funds, with the annual net inflow ratio to free float market value at -0.1% as of June 16, 2025. Excluding private equity and insurance funds, the net inflow ratio is approximately -0.9%, indicating a shift towards a slight net outflow [9][10][15] - The weak performance of resident funds (bank-securities transfers and financing balances) and public funds continues, while private equity funds show a slight net inflow amid minor replenishment [9][10] - The second and third quarters typically see stronger seasonal company buybacks and dividends, providing some support to the funding environment [9] Monthly Analysis - In May 2025, the A-share market maintained a tight balance in funding, with a slight improvement compared to April. The monthly net inflow was 2,971 billion yuan, representing 0.61% of the market value. By June 16, 2025, the net inflow reached 2,428 billion yuan, or 0.56% of the market value [15][16] - Financing balances showed a slight recovery, with an increase of 135.17 billion yuan in May and a further increase of 208.25 billion yuan by June 16. However, the overall financing balance from January 1 to June 16, 2025, decreased by 440.76 billion yuan compared to 2024, indicating a net outflow [29][15] Fund Inflows and Outflows - The share of public funds decreased in May 2025, with a total decline of 199.53 billion shares when considering ETF changes. Active equity fund shares increased by 75.90 billion shares, but overall public fund shares still declined [20][15] - The net outflow from ETF funds was significant, with a net outflow of 342.93 billion yuan in May and 179.53 billion yuan by June 16 [20][15] Company Actions - Company buybacks and dividends remain strong, with buyback announcements in May 2025 totaling 1,530.67 billion yuan. By June 16, the cumulative buyback amount reached 1,029.85 billion yuan, with actual buybacks at 396.77 billion yuan [20][15] - The total dividend amount for listed companies in May 2025 was 1,765.92 billion yuan, which is an increase from April and aligns with seasonal trends [20][15] Equity Financing - The scale of equity financing continues to decline, with a total of 2179.17 billion yuan from January 1 to June 16, 2025. Although the monthly average financing scale has increased compared to 2024, it remains at historically low levels [20][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is currently "No Rating" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the price of pulp and paper has stabilized at a low level, with expectations of fluctuations in June and July. The actual supply prices for overseas needle and broadleaf pulp are approximately $715/ton and $500-510/ton respectively. Pulp manufacturers are showing a strong willingness to maintain prices, and some sellers are raising prices by $20/ton [1][2] - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in operations from April to May, with a slight decline in profitability in June. The second quarter profit is expected to remain stable compared to the first quarter, while the third quarter is anticipated to stabilize as well. The fourth quarter will enter a new capacity release cycle, with expected profitability improvements [3][4] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper Market - The pulp prices are expected to fluctuate around the bottom, with a forecast of low-level oscillation during the off-season from June to August. The prices for pulp and paper have shown signs of bottoming out, with current prices at 4140 CNY/ton for pulp and 5163 CNY/ton for paper [2][3] - Historical analysis shows that in 2022, pulp prices reached a historical high due to supply-side factors, while in 2023, both pulp and paper prices experienced a rapid decline, with pulp bottoming out at 3850 CNY/ton and paper at 5375 CNY/ton [2] Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 39,544 million CNY, with a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3,086 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [4][7] - For the years 2025 to 2027, the net profit is projected to be 35.8 billion CNY, 43.0 billion CNY, and 48.1 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.5X, 8.8X, and 7.9X [3][4] Production Capacity - The company plans to gradually launch its Nanning base project in Q3 to Q4, which includes the production of 150,000 tons of household paper, 400,000 tons of specialty paper, 1,000,000 tons of corrugated paper, and 500,000 tons of pulp, which is expected to increase the underlying profit by approximately 500 million CNY annually [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Yadea Holdings (1585.HK) based on its strong performance and growth potential [1]. Core Views - Yadea Holdings has released a positive profit forecast, expecting a net profit of 1.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 55% compared to 1.03 billion yuan in the first half of 2024. This growth is attributed to strong product sales and continuous optimization of the product structure [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the significant results of the national "old-for-new" policy for electric bicycles, with an anticipated 30%+ year-on-year growth in electric two-wheeler sales for the first half of 2025 [2]. - Yadea is actively expanding into the mid-to-high-end market with new product lines such as "Modern" and "Crown Power," which are expected to enhance product structure and improve average selling prices and gross margins [2][3]. - The report forecasts Yadea's net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 2.85 billion yuan, 3.37 billion yuan, and 3.84 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.5X, 10.5X, and 9.3X [3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, Yadea's revenue is projected at 28.236 billion yuan, with a significant increase to 39 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 38% [5]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 1.272 billion yuan, with a substantial increase to 2.85 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 124% [5][7]. - The report highlights key financial ratios, including a gross margin improvement from 15.19% in 2024 to 17.43% in 2025, and a net profit margin increase from 4.51% to 7.31% over the same period [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation transportation industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the supply in the aviation industry is gradually contracting, with a narrowing decline in ticket prices. An improvement in supply-demand dynamics is expected during the peak travel season [3][4]. - The industry is experiencing a high passenger load factor, with limited room for recovery in utilization rates. The supply contraction is intensifying, leading to a trend of narrowing year-on-year ticket price declines, which may improve the industry’s supply-demand relationship [14][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines due to the anticipated recovery in air travel demand during the peak season [3][14]. Industry Supply Contraction and Ticket Price Trends - The industry’s passenger load factor remains high, with an increasing proportion of grounded aircraft. In April 2025, the industry’s Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) increased by 8.1% and 11.5% year-on-year, respectively, with a passenger load factor of 84.5%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [4][16]. - The average ticket price in June 2025 was down 5.9% year-on-year, with the average domestic ticket price for 2025 year-to-date at 837 RMB, a decline of 9.4% year-on-year [5][26]. Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation kerosene in Q1 and Q2 2025 was 5,952 RMB/ton and 5,385 RMB/ton, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.0% and 17.0%. The Brent crude oil price averaged 67.95 USD/barrel as of June 16, 2025, down 18.1% year-on-year [6][37][38]. Airline Capacity and Load Factors - In May 2025, airlines increased their international capacity, with domestic load factors remaining high. The overall ASK for major airlines showed a year-on-year increase, with international routes recovering faster than domestic routes [45][46]. - The report indicates that the passenger load factors for domestic routes exceeded those of 2019, with significant increases noted for China Eastern and China Southern Airlines on international routes [45][47].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the new national subsidy policy for heavy trucks, which includes the replacement of old vehicles, potentially leading to significant sales growth [4][13]. - The company is expanding into the passenger vehicle market with its eCall system, which is expected to become a standard feature in new cars by 2027, creating a substantial market opportunity [4][44]. - The trend towards the smartification of two-wheeled vehicles presents a new growth avenue for the company, with significant revenue potential anticipated [4][56]. Summary by Sections Commercial Vehicle Market - The introduction of subsidies for the replacement of National IV heavy trucks is expected to stimulate demand, with potential sales increases of 114,000 to 266,000 vehicles based on different replacement ratios [4][31]. - The company has established strong partnerships with leading manufacturers in the commercial vehicle sector, enhancing its market position [4][38]. eCall and Domain Controller - The mandatory implementation of the eCall system in China is projected to create a market worth approximately 11.03 billion yuan by 2027, with the company already securing important contracts and certifications [4][48]. - The company has received EU certification for its eCall products, positioning it favorably for international market opportunities [4][52]. Two-Wheeled Vehicle Market - The smartification trend in two-wheeled vehicles is expected to drive demand for various smart components, with a projected market size of 5.153 billion yuan at a 30% penetration rate [4][56]. - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in this segment, anticipating significant revenue growth [4][56]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 697 million, 935 million, and 1.255 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 33.2%, 34.1%, and 34.2% [6][5]. - The projected net profit for the same period is expected to be 60 million, 85 million, and 122 million yuan, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [6][5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming launch of the Meta Oakley smart glasses, designed specifically for sports enthusiasts, which is expected to enhance the penetration rate of AI sports glasses in the market [2][3] - AI shooting glasses are becoming a consumer-grade product, with global sales yet to significantly increase. The report identifies that the lack of hardware and software compatibility is a core reason for the slow adoption in the domestic market [3] - The report anticipates that AI sports glasses, which integrate multiple functionalities, will become essential for outdoor sports, as they address the previous issue of "functional islands" in sports equipment [3] - The report draws a parallel between AI sports glasses and action cameras, suggesting that the core functionalities of both are similar, focusing on first-person perspective shooting and advanced algorithms for AI detection and stabilization [3] - The report recommends focusing on the company "Inpaiss" as a potential strategic target in the AI and sports sector, which is collaborating with leading smart glasses manufacturers [3]