证券研究报告 2025年05月29日 行业报告： 行业专题研究 卡牌行业：二十年代际跃迁，不变的文化符号 作者： 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 首次 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 社交 分析师 孔蓉 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521020002 分析师 曹睿 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523020003 摘要 核心观点一： 卡牌是承载内容的IP衍生品，在中国并非新兴行业，卡牌作为一种衍生品形态较早就存在。对标美、日等成熟市场，卡牌品类成玩具市场最 大增长力。从全球来看，美国、日本集换式卡牌游戏市场发展较成熟，保持稳定增长的势头，并有着广泛的用户基础。 核心观点二： 中国卡牌市场高速增长，占泛娱乐玩具规模比重持续增长。到2027年：预计集换式卡牌市场规模有望达到310亿元。驱动力主要来自：需求 侧，1）泛二次元用户超5亿，IP消费情绪价值优先，42%消费者以"取悦自己"为目的；2）人均可支配收入增长支撑精神消费升级。供给侧， 1）IP矩阵分层：头部IP比如小马宝莉、奥特曼主导，影视游戏IP跨界联动。2）二级市场完善：卡淘、集换社等平台催化一级销售，奥特曼、 小马宝 ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 酒鬼酒（000799） 证券研究报告 调整期业绩阶段承压，25 年静待改革发力经营改善 事件： 2024 年公司收入/归母净利润分别为 14.23/0.12 亿元（同比 -49.70%/-97.72%）；对应2024Q4 收入/归母净利润分别为2.32/-0.44 亿元（同 比-66.20%/-163.67%）；2025Q1 公司收入/归母净利润分别为 3.44/0.32 亿元 （同比-30.34%/-56.78%）。 24 年去库存报表端承压突出，25 年资源聚焦"大本营"市场有望迎来突破。 24 年内参 / 酒 鬼 / 湘 泉 / 其他营业收入 2.35/8.35/0.76/2.68 亿 元 （-67.06%/-49.32%/+7.64%/-30.84%）。量价角度，24 年酒类销量/吨价分别 -32.98%/-25.17%，营收下滑主要由销量&吨价下降影响。分产品：①24 年 内参销量/吨价分别同比-56.09%/-24.99%；②酒鬼系列销量/吨价同比 -46.18%/-5.83%。24 年经销商数量净减少 438 家至 1336 家，平均经销商规 模同比-33.41%至 10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company is actively pursuing an "extreme operation" strategy to enhance profitability and efficiency, leading to a comprehensive gross margin of 4.26% in 2024, an increase of 1.14 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company has established a robust distribution network, serving as a primary distributor for major brands like Apple, Honor, and Samsung, with over 100,000 stores across various channels in China [3]. - The company is expanding into AI and smart computing sectors through strategic partnerships and acquisitions, including a joint venture with "Shenzhen Deep Intelligence City Investment" to invest in smart terminals and AI industries [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 658.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.58% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.81 billion yuan, down 11.26% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see revenues of 127.37 billion yuan, reflecting a 41.18% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.26 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.89% [1]. - The company has reduced accounts receivable by 32.30% and financial expenses by 51.72% in 2024, indicating improved operational efficiency [2]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is transitioning to a digital-enabled agency model, enhancing its operational capabilities and expanding its market presence in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa [3]. - The establishment of the "Aishide Smart City" joint venture and the investment in "Shenzhen Aishide Intelligent Computing Technology Co., Ltd." are aimed at accelerating the development of AI-related businesses [4]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio for eight consecutive years, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 were 642 million and 75 million yuan, representing declines of 24.80% and 57.53% year-on-year, primarily due to macroeconomic conditions, intensified industry competition, and the timing of the Spring Festival [1] - The company is focusing on high-end markets and product innovation, aiming to enhance its brand and channel strategies to achieve its annual targets despite short-term performance pressures [3] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown: hot pot condiments 173 million yuan (-41.05% YoY), recipe-style condiments 434 million yuan (-12.24% YoY), sausage and cured meat condiments 15 million yuan (-55.77% YoY), and other income 17 million yuan (-44.13% YoY) [1] - Q1 2025 revenue by region: East 171 million yuan (+9.30% YoY), South 67 million yuan (-22.82% YoY), West 228 million yuan (-26.86% YoY), North 45 million yuan (-43.61% YoY), and Central 128 million yuan (-41.06% YoY) [2] - Q1 2025 gross margin and net margin decreased by 3.32 and 8.56 percentage points to 40.74% and 12.34% respectively [2] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.71 billion, 4.11 billion, and 4.52 billion yuan, with growth rates of 7%, 11%, and 10% respectively [3] - Net profit projections for the same period are 650 million, 727 million, and 808 million yuan, with growth rates of 4%, 12%, and 11% respectively [3] - The company aims to improve profit margins as revenue increases and scale advantages are realized [3] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 20X, 18X, and 16X respectively [3] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 12.63 billion yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company is actively pursuing an "extreme operation" strategy to enhance profitability and efficiency by reducing low-margin business segments, resulting in a comprehensive gross margin of 4.26% in 2024, an increase of 1.14 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company has established a robust distribution network as a primary distributor for major smartphone brands, with over 10,000 stores across various channels in China, and is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia and Latin America [3]. - The company is diversifying into AI and smart computing through partnerships and acquisitions, including a joint venture with "Shenzhen Deep Intelligence City Investment" to invest in smart terminals and AI industries, with a total fund size of 500 million yuan [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 65.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.58% year-on-year, with a net profit of 581 million yuan, down 11.26% [5]. - The company expects revenue growth to recover in 2025, with projected revenues of 75.36 billion yuan and a net profit of 666 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.50% and 14.56% respectively [5]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio for eight consecutive years, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [5].

调整期业绩阶段承压，25 年静待改革发力经营改善 事件： 2024 年公司收入/归母净利润分别为 14.23/0.12 亿元（同比 -49.70%/-97.72%）；对应2024Q4 收入/归母净利润分别为2.32/-0.44 亿元（同 比-66.20%/-163.67%）；2025Q1 公司收入/归母净利润分别为 3.44/0.32 亿元 （同比-30.34%/-56.78%）。 24 年去库存报表端承压突出，25 年资源聚焦"大本营"市场有望迎来突破。 24 年内参 / 酒 鬼 / 湘 泉 / 其他营业收入 2.35/8.35/0.76/2.68 亿 元 （-67.06%/-49.32%/+7.64%/-30.84%）。量价角度，24 年酒类销量/吨价分别 -32.98%/-25.17%，营收下滑主要由销量&吨价下降影响。分产品：①24 年 内参销量/吨价分别同比-56.09%/-24.99%；②酒鬼系列销量/吨价同比 -46.18%/-5.83%。24 年经销商数量净减少 438 家至 1336 家，平均经销商规 模同比-33.41%至 105.88 万元/家，24 年单商规模降低是公司营收下降主要 原 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company achieved its first quarterly GAAP net profit in Q1 2025, with total revenue of $1.117 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49% [1][14]. - The company is expected to enter a significant period in 2025, with over 10 concept validation milestones anticipated [4]. - The sales of the key product, Zebutini, are expected to stabilize and grow throughout the year, despite a slight quarter-on-quarter decline in Q1 2025 [3][15]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, GAAP operating profit was $11.1 million, marking the first positive result, while adjusted operating profit was $139 million, a 195% year-on-year increase [1][2]. - The company reported a GAAP net profit of $1.27 million for the first time [1][14]. - The total revenue for Zebutini in Q1 2025 was $792 million, a 62% increase year-on-year, with U.S. sales reaching $563 million, also showing significant growth [3][15]. Cost Management - R&D expenses in Q1 2025 were $482 million, with a R&D expense ratio of 43%, down 18 percentage points year-on-year [2][34]. - Sales and management expenses were $459 million, with a corresponding expense ratio of 41%, down 16 percentage points year-on-year [2][34]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of $3.7517 billion, $4.5024 billion, and $5.4034 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be $703 million, $4.010 billion, and $6.744 billion in the same years [6][11]. - The company anticipates a GAAP operating profit for the full year 2025, with a gross margin expected to be in the range of 80%-90% [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company achieved its first quarterly GAAP net profit in Q1 2025, with total revenue of $1.117 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49% [1][14]. - The company is expected to enter a significant period in 2025, with over 10 concept validation milestones anticipated [4]. - The sales of the key product, Zebutini, showed stable growth, with Q1 2025 revenue of $792 million, a 62% year-on-year increase [3][15]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, GAAP operating profit was $11.1 million, marking the first positive result, while adjusted operating profit was $139 million, up 195% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company reported a GAAP net profit of $1.27 million for the first time [1][14]. - The total revenue for 2025 is projected to be between $4.9 billion and $5.3 billion, with GAAP operating expenses estimated at $4.1 billion to $4.4 billion [12][13]. Cost Management - R&D expenses in Q1 2025 were $482 million, with a R&D expense ratio of 43%, down 18 percentage points year-on-year [2][34]. - Sales and management expenses were $459 million, with a corresponding expense ratio of 41%, down 16 percentage points year-on-year [2][28]. Product Performance - Zebutini's revenue in the U.S. was $563 million, a year-on-year increase of over 60%, while European sales reached $116 million, up 73% [3][15]. - The other significant product, Trelizumab, generated $171 million in revenue in Q1 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [3][23]. Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve a positive GAAP operating profit for the full year 2025, with a projected gross margin between 80% and 90% [12][13]. - The forecasted revenue for 2025-2027 is $37.52 billion, $45.02 billion, and $54.03 billion, respectively [6].

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 2025 年 05 月 28 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 中性(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 中性 | 作者 唐婕 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110519070001 tjie@tfzq.com 张峰 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110518080008 zhangfeng@tfzq.com 郭建奇 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110522110002 guojianqi@tfzq.com 邢颜凝 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110523070006 xingyanning@tfzq.com 杨滨钰 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524070008 yangbinyu@tfzq.com 行业走势图 -21% -16% -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 1 《基础化工-行业专题研究:化工行业 运行指标跟 踪-2025 年 4 月数 据》 2025-05-26 2 《基础化工-行业研究周报:一 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025 年 05 月 29 日 $$\overline{{{\prod_{\mathrm{DE}}}}}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup\mathrm{bd}}{\bigtriangleup}$$ 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 风险提示：特朗普不确定性超预期；逆周期政策落地有时滞；地缘冲突再 度升级。 《电子|半导体周观点：COMPUTEX 成功举办，持续关注 AI 催化及 2 季度 细分板块业绩弹性》 1、COMPUTEX 成功举办：AI、数据中心和机器人为三大热点，芯片大厂 百花齐放。COMPUTEX 存储技术革新赋能 AI 基础设施，创新产品齐亮相， AI+存储热潮不断。2、半导体 4 月市场回顾与二季度展望：4 月总结：芯 片交期稳定部分品类小幅回升，AI 相关订单强劲，消费电子库存趋稳， 汽车/工业需求复苏。存储价格环比上涨。晶圆代工方面，SMIC、华虹产 能利用率饱满，预期 2025.5 月整体订单持续提升。封测方面，封测订单 ...