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海信视像(600060):份额稳步提升,结构持续优化
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-26 08:16
2025 年 8 月 25 日,海信视像发布半年报。2025H1 公司实现营业收入 272.3 亿元,同比+7.0%;归母净利润 10.6 亿元,同比+26.6%。2025Q2,公司实 现营业收入 138.6 亿元,同比+8.6%;归母净利润 5 亿元,同比+36.8%。 公司报告 | 半年报点评 海信视像(600060) 证券研究报告 份额稳步提升,结构持续优化 事件: 投资建议:公司是全球显示行业龙头企业之一,在行业竞争格局持续优化 的背景下,公司全球化发展能力持续提升,多元品牌矩阵运营能力及经营 效率有效提高,产品结构进一步升级。同时,公司持续深耕高效协同、独 立发展的"1+(4+N)"产业布局,在 MiniLED、MicroLED、虚拟现实显示 及 AIGC 等新技术方面加快研发和产品推广,持续夯实在显示行业的引领地 位。我们看好公司中长期平稳向好发展,预计 25-27 年归母净利润 25.7/28.9/32.9 亿元,对应 25-27 年动态 PE 分别为 11.0x/9.8x/8.6x,维持"买 入"评级。 风险提示:国际贸易不确定性风险、面板价格剧烈波动影响利润率的风险、 新显示业务发展不及预期 ...
稀土:《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》发布,供给侧加速优化
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-26 07:44
行业报告 | 行业点评 小金属 证券研究报告 稀土:《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办 法》发布,供给侧加速优化 事件:《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》发布 2025 年 8 月 22 日,《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》(以 下简称《办法》)正式发布。《办法》根据《中华人民共和国矿产资源法》、 《稀土管理条例》等法律、行政法规和国家有关规定,核心是为了加强稀土 开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理。 《办法》是今年 2 月发布的征求意见稿的落地,核心以下几点值得关注: 1、实行总量调控方向不变,最重要的是明确将进口以及加工其他矿物所得 的稀土矿产品的冶炼分离纳入总量调控管理。《办法》第三条明确规定:国 家对稀土开采(含稀土矿产品等)和对通过开采、进口以及加工其他矿物所 得的各类稀土矿产品(含独居石精矿)的冶炼分离实行总量调控管理。进口 矿纳入冶炼管理的大方向,目前已正式有法律明确依据。 2、总量控制指标下达程序。工业和信息化部会同自然资源部、国家发展改 革委根据国民经济发展目标、国家稀土资源储量和种类差异、稀土产业发展、 生态保护、市场需求等因素,研究拟定年度稀土开采和稀土冶炼 ...
九丰能源(605090):扣非业绩稳步增长,收购码头延伸布局LPG业务
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-26 07:14
公司报告 | 半年报点评 九丰能源(605090) 证券研究报告 扣非业绩稳步增长,收购码头延伸布局 LPG 业务 事件 公司公布 2025 年半年报。2025 年上半年,公司实现营业收入 104.3 亿元, 同比-7.5%;实现归母净利润 8.6 亿元,同比-22.2%;实现扣非归母净利润 8.1 亿元,同比+2.9%。 三大业务协同发展,扣非业绩稳步增长 ①天然气业务: 资源端:公司上半年长协执行情况良好,同时积极推进新长约的合作。现 货方面受到上半年国际 LNG 现货价格高企以及国际国内价格倒挂的影响, 公司现货资源采购同比减少。陆气资源方面,上半年公司 L NG 产量超 33 万吨,完成计划量的 106%。 ③特种气体业务:氦气方面,公司完成四川泸州 100 万方/年精氦项目的建 设,公司氦气的产能规模提升至 150 万方/年。此外,上半年公司为海南商 发三次火箭发射配套特燃特气资源供应,为海南商发的高密度、常态化发 射奠定基础。 现金分红与回购计划 ①分红:公司明确 25/26 年固定现金分红金额分别为 8.5 亿元、10 亿元, 截至 2025 年 8 月 25 日收盘,对应股息率 4.4%/5. ...
大元泵业(603757):家用板块修复,液冷泵放量在即
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-26 06:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 960 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 100 million yuan, a decrease of 28.0% [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares, with a payout ratio of 81.7% [1]. - The liquid cooling pump market is expected to grow significantly, driven by the expansion of computing power and the need for efficient cooling solutions in data centers [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 580 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with a net profit of 60 million yuan, down 37.9% [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 27.0%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a lower proportion of high-margin household shield pumps [2]. - The company’s net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 10.5%, down 7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the absence of significant asset disposal gains compared to the previous year [2]. Business Segments - The agricultural pump segment generated approximately 340 million yuan in revenue, up 17.6% year-on-year [2]. - The household shield pump segment achieved revenue of about 360 million yuan, a growth of 5.8% year-on-year, while energy-saving pumps saw sales close to 150 million yuan, increasing over 20% [2]. - The industrial pump segment reported revenue of approximately 180 million yuan, with a growth of over 20% [2]. - The liquid cooling temperature control products generated about 70 million yuan in revenue, marking a significant growth of 105% year-on-year [2]. Market Outlook - The liquid cooling pump is positioned as a key component in the rapidly growing AI computing infrastructure, with potential for substantial market share capture due to superior technology [3]. - The company is collaborating with downstream customers to innovate and iterate on shielded liquid cooling solutions, enhancing its competitive edge [3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company is adjusted to 210 million yuan, 250 million yuan, and 300 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 39.1x, 32.4x, and 27.3x [3].
政策与大类资产配置周观察:降息周期或将至
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-26 06:43
Policy and Macro Analysis - The State Council emphasized the need to complete annual economic and social development goals, focusing on stabilizing market expectations and enhancing the effectiveness of macro policies [9][10] - The People's Bank of China announced an additional 100 billion yuan in re-loans to support agriculture and small enterprises, indicating a proactive monetary policy stance [26][16] - The recent Jackson Hole meeting highlighted the potential need for interest rate cuts due to rising employment risks, as indicated by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [18][19] Equity Market Analysis - A-shares saw significant gains, with major indices like the CSI 300 and Shenzhen Component Index rising over 4%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 5.85% [27] - The net inflow of southbound funds exceeded 16.5 billion yuan during the third week of August, reflecting positive market sentiment [27] - The MSCI China A-share Index rose by 4.27%, indicating strong performance in the equity market [27] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China conducted a net fund injection of 12,652 billion yuan, indicating a tightening liquidity environment post-mid-August [28] - The recent adjustments in fiscal policies aim to stabilize the bond market and enhance the effectiveness of public-private partnership (PPP) projects [28][29] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market experienced fluctuations, with non-ferrous metals retreating while crude oil prices rebounded slightly [28] - The government is taking measures to stabilize the pork market by initiating central reserves for frozen pork [28] Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The US dollar index declined to 97.72, a decrease of 0.12% week-on-week, while the Chinese yuan appreciated to 7.17, up 0.25% [4][29] - The recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve are expected to influence currency markets and may lead to further adjustments in exchange rates [4][19] Asset Rotation Outlook - The report anticipates a continuation of stable and flexible policies in the second half of the year, with a focus on promoting effective investment and consumption [4][24] - There is an emphasis on gold and convertible bonds as potential investment opportunities amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [4][24]
市场即底气:国产大飞机的产业突围与广阔空间
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-26 06:21
Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The domestic large aircraft industry chain's self-control is urgent, with vast market space. China's commercial aircraft global market share exceeds 20%, and the C919 production capacity is continuously expanding. By 2042, the global passenger aircraft fleet is expected to reach 48,455 units, approximately 2.2 times that of 2022, with China's fleet reaching 9,969 units, accounting for 21% [2][51]. - The demand for new commercial aircraft in China over the next 20 years (2023-2042) is projected to exceed 9,000 units, corresponding to a market value of $1.4 trillion [2]. - The C919's production capacity is set to reach 150 units per year by 2027 and 200 units per year by 2029, with plans for accelerated operations in Southeast Asia and positive progress in European airworthiness [2][18]. - The engine system, referred to as the "heart" of large aircraft, has a high technical content and value, with engine maintenance costs expected to match procurement costs over their lifecycle. The demand for new commercial engines in China over the next 20 years may exceed $600 billion, averaging over 200 billion RMB annually [2][25]. - The onboard systems are of high value, and China is transitioning from "having" to "good" in this area, with significant development plans in place [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Development Status of China's Civil Aircraft Industry - The C919 has achieved commercial-scale operations, and the C929 is making positive progress [8]. - The development of large aircraft in China has gone through several stages, with the C919 being the first domestically developed jet airliner with independent intellectual property rights [12]. 2. Review of Boeing and Airbus Development - The report reviews the historical development of Boeing and Airbus, providing insights into their growth patterns and strategies, which may serve as references for China's large aircraft industry [32][41]. 3. Market Demand and Supply - The global demand for passenger aircraft is expected to grow, with China projected to maintain a 21% market share by 2042. The report anticipates a total of 43,644 new aircraft deliveries globally over the next 20 years, with a market value of approximately $6.5 trillion [51][53]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various segments of the industry, including materials, structures, engines, onboard systems, and total assembly, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [4]. 5. Engine Development Progress - The CJ-1000 and CJ-2000 engines are under development, with the CJ-1000 entering the airworthiness certification phase. The report emphasizes the importance of these engines for the C919 and C929 aircraft [25][27]. 6. Aviation Material Supply and Demand - The aviation material market in China is heavily reliant on imports, with a significant need for domestic production to meet the demands of over 4,000 existing civil aircraft [22][24]. - The aviation material management industry is projected to grow, with the market size reaching 1,601 billion RMB in 2023 [24]. 7. Future Outlook - The report indicates that the domestic large aircraft industry is on the verge of historic development opportunities, driven by external changes, national policies, and funding support [4].
从老铺财报看高端金饰发展
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-26 06:21
行业报告 | 行业点评 纺织服饰 证券研究报告 从老铺财报看高端金饰发展 老铺上半年取得出色成绩 25 年上半年公司实现销售 142 亿同增 249%,收入 124 亿同增 251%,非国 际财务报告准则下经调整净利 23.5 亿同增 291%。 截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日,忠诚会员达到约 48 万名,相较 2024 年 12 月 31 日增长 13 万名,消费人群正不断扩大。根据弗若斯特沙利文调研数据显示, 老铺黄金消费者与路易威登、爱马仕、卡地亚、宝格丽等国际五大奢侈品牌 的消费者平均重合率高达 77.3%,老铺黄金消费者与国际奢侈品牌人群高度 重合,具备高端消费特点,验证品牌高端定位。 凭借高级感的品牌调性以及现有门店的往绩记录,老铺黄金拥有较强的渠道 拓展能力,使老铺能够在准入要求严格的知名商业中心系统性地在理想位置 开设新门店。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日,老铺在 16 个城市共开设 41 家自营 门店,全部位于包括 SKP 系(6 家)和万象城系(11 家)在内的具有严格 准入要求的 29 家知名商业中心。 通过以上数据,我们认为以老铺为代表的高端金饰为行业发展注入新思路 回顾行 ...
华润电力(00836):纯火电权益核心利润保持增长,一次性因素扰动业绩
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-26 06:21
港股公司报告 | 公司点评 华润电力(00836) 证券研究报告 纯火电权益核心利润保持增长,一次性因素扰动业绩 事件: 公司发布 2025 年中期业绩。上半年公司持有人应占利润为 78.72 亿港元, 同比减少 15.9%;持有人应占核心业务利润 82.78 亿港元,同比增加 0.1%。 公司 2025 年中期拟每股派息 0.356 港元。 点评 风光全年并网容量 10GW 规划不变,预计下半年投产火电权益装机 6GW 上半年公司新增风光并网装机约 4,839 兆瓦,新增火电项目权益并网装机 894 兆瓦。截至 6 月底,公司火力发电权益并网装机容量为 39.14GW,风 电权益并网装机容量为 25.55GW,光伏权益并网装机容量为 12.97GW;公 司风电在建管理装机容量为 8,679 兆瓦,光伏在建管理装机容量为 6,515 兆瓦。上半年公司获得可再生能源开发建设指标 5,874 兆瓦,其中风电项 目 3,996 兆瓦,光伏项目 1,878 兆瓦。展望后续,公司规划全年新增风电 和光伏项目并网容量 10,000 兆瓦,与年初目标一致;下半年公司预计投产 的火电机组权益装机容量约 5,982.5 兆瓦。 ...
顾家家居(603816):零售转型成效显现,多品类均衡发展
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-26 05:14
公司报告 | 半年报点评 零售转型成效显现,多品类均衡发展 公司发布 2025 年中期报告 25Q2 公司实现收入48.9 亿元,同比+7.2%;归母净利润5.0 亿元,同比+5.4%; 扣非归母净利润 4.4 亿元,同比+8.9%; 25H1 公司实现收入 98.0 亿元,同比+10.0%;归母净利润 10.2 亿元,同比 +13.9%;扣非归母净利润 9.0 亿元,同比+15.3%;若剔除股份支付费用 0.36 亿的影响,归母及扣非分别同增 18%、20%。 公司经营业绩持续向好,内贸零售企稳向好,外贸收入持续增长,同时得 益于产品力改善和效率提升,实现结构性增长,同时盈利能力、现金流等 核心经营指标同步优化; 25Q2 毛利率 33.4%,同比+0.4pct,归母净利率 10.3%,同比-0.2pct,盈利 能力保持稳定; 25H1 经营活动产生的现金流量净额 10.94 亿元,同比增长 71.89%。 单品均衡发展,高潜品类展现结构性成长 ①沙发收入 56.67 亿元,同比+14.7%,毛利率 36.1%,同比+1.0pct,其中 功能沙发态势较好,尤其内贸功能沙发业务上半年实现较好的同比增长; 顾家 ...
龙源电力(00916):新能源电量持续增长,拟中期分红
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-26 03:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 15.657 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.519 billion yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.1 yuan per share (pre-tax), totaling approximately 0.836 billion yuan (pre-tax) [1]. - The company achieved a net increase of 2.1 GW in new energy installed capacity in the first half of the year, bringing the total controlled installed capacity to 43.2 GW [2]. - The company completed a total electricity generation of 39.652 billion kWh in the first half of the year, with wind power generation at 33.503 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.07%, and solar power generation at 6.147 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 71.37% [3]. - The average on-grid electricity price for wind power was 422 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 16 yuan/MWh year-on-year, while for solar power, it was 273 yuan/MWh, down 5 yuan/MWh year-on-year [3]. - Operating expenses for the first half of the year were 9.567 billion yuan, an increase of 10.8% year-on-year, primarily due to increased depreciation and amortization from new projects [4]. - The company’s operating profit from continuing operations was 6.730 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [4]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 6.9 billion, 7.2 billion, and 7.6 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.6, 7.2, and 6.9 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2025 was 15.657 billion yuan, down 18.6% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.519 billion yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year [1]. - Operating profit from continuing operations was 6.730 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year [4]. Installed Capacity and Generation - The company added 2.1 GW of new energy installed capacity in H1 2025, totaling 43.2 GW [2]. - Wind power generation was 33.503 billion kWh, up 6.07% year-on-year, while solar power generation was 6.147 billion kWh, up 71.37% year-on-year [3]. Cost and Profitability - Operating expenses were 9.567 billion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year [4]. - Wind power segment profit was 6.213 billion yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year, while solar power segment profit was 0.550 billion yuan, up 51.1% year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 6.9 billion, 7.2 billion, and 7.6 billion yuan, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5].