行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 03 月 08 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：万华万吨级生物基 1,3-丁二醇装置投 产，工信部印发民爆行业转型升级实施意见 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 1.56%，创业板指数上涨 1.61%， 沪深 300 上涨 1.39%，中信基础化工指数上涨 1.65%，申万化工指数上涨 2.27%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为钛 白粉(6.05%)、涂料油墨颜料(4.17%)、其他化学制品Ⅲ(4.03%)、电子化学品(3%)、 绵纶(2.96%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为轮胎(-1.8%)、纯碱(-0.72%)、 粘胶(0.13%)、橡胶制品(0.5%)、氯碱(0.74%)。 本周行业主要动态： 万华万吨级生物基 1,3-丁二醇装置投产。近日，万华化学采用自主研发的 专利技术，以非主粮生物质为原料，建成并投产全球首套万吨级生物基 1,3-丁 二醇装置。万华化学 1,3-丁二醇装置采用其自主研发的专利技术，通过创新的 催化剂及生产工艺，大幅提升其原料利用率，避免资源浪费，减少"三废"产 ...

Core Insights - Companies are utilizing "high export reporting/low import reporting" to retain USD deposits, combined with expectations of RMB depreciation, creating a dual drive of interest rate spread and exchange rate gains [3] - The inversion of the China-US interest rate spread intensifies capital outflow pressure, leading to a negative feedback loop between short-term capital flows and currency depreciation [3] - The counter-cyclical factor aims to stabilize unilateral depreciation or appreciation expectations, with targeted and flexible implementation of tools [3] - The counter-cyclical factor compresses traditional interest arbitrage space, promoting capital inflow into China's risk-free assets [3] - The convergence of the counter-cyclical factor reflects a weakening of depreciation expectations, slowing the momentum of foreign capital inflow into short-term bonds, with marginal liquidity easing [3] - Under the capital control framework, companies engage in interest arbitrage through trade channels, essentially constituting "institutional arbitrage," necessitating ongoing regulatory balance between openness and risk [3] - The cognitive-behavioral-outcome cycle includes cognitive biases, with cognitive correction potentially initiating a positive cycle [3] - Expectations of RMB appreciation may trigger foreign capital to increase allocation to Chinese equity assets, forming a positive feedback loop of "asset prices ↑ → exchange rate ↑ → capital inflow ↑" [3] - Risks associated with USD assets may drive international capital towards RMB assets, with attention on the narrowing of the China-US interest rate spread and the slope of domestic economic recovery [3] Traditional Interest Arbitrage Logic - Companies utilize trade channels: Export revenues in USD lead companies to retain foreign exchange domestically rather than converting to RMB when the China-US interest rate spread widens [6] - Matching RMB debt with USD assets: Companies increase RMB loans for daily funding needs while holding USD revenues as deposits to earn interest rate spreads [6] - The role of exchange rate expectations: If companies anticipate RMB depreciation against USD, holding USD deposits allows them to earn both interest rate spreads and exchange rate gains [6] Reverse Interest Arbitrage: Policy-Driven Capital Inflow - The negative swap points indicate appreciation expectations, with the current 1Y USDCNY swap points at -2224 points, suggesting an annualized arbitrage yield of approximately 3.06% [20] - USD holders can lock in exchange rate gains through buy/sell CNY swaps, making the actual yield of RMB assets (interest rate + appreciation gains) surpass US Treasury yields, creating a localized capital inflow loop [20] Counter-Cyclical Tool Impact - The reduction of positive interest arbitrage and the promotion of reverse interest arbitrage are conducted through two main lines: increasing liability costs and enhancing reverse interest arbitrage returns [23] - Short-term coordination of interest rate and exchange rate policies is necessary to adjust the midpoint and tighten offshore RMB liquidity, impacting offshore exchange rates to compress arbitrage space [25] - The counter-cyclical factor's use reflects a dynamic adjustment to manage exchange rate expectations, with intervention intensifying when the RMB shows weakness against a basket of currencies [28] Market Dynamics and Feedback Loops - The reversal of interest arbitrage will drive RMB appreciation, aligning with the "cognitive-behavioral-outcome" positive feedback mechanism [44] - The narrowing of interest spreads and the resulting cognitive corrections may lead to increased foreign capital inflow into Chinese assets, reinforcing the cycle of asset price increases and currency appreciation [44][47]

Group 1 - The report highlights that all six sub-sectors of the pharmaceutical index recorded positive returns, indicating a strong performance in the market [1] - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the establishment of a multi-payment system for innovative drugs, enhancing the collaboration between medical insurance and commercial insurance. It is noted that commercial insurance currently accounts for less than 8% of payments, with a clear policy directive to significantly increase this proportion, potentially leading to a market scale reaching trillions [2][8] - The report indicates that the innovative drug market in China is projected to reach 162 billion yuan in 2024, with medical insurance covering 44% and personal cash payments at 49%, while commercial health insurance contributes only 7.7%. This highlights the potential for commercial insurance to fill the payment gap for high-priced innovative drugs [8][9] Group 2 - The report discusses the structural contradictions revealed by the "2025 China Innovative Drug and Medical Device Multi-Payment White Paper," which indicates that the aging population and upgraded medical needs will challenge the basic medical insurance system's ability to cover high-cost innovative drugs [9] - The report notes that the government work report's focus on "medical, medical insurance, and pharmaceuticals" reflects a strategic shift to prioritize medical development, which is expected to reshape the healthcare industry and create new opportunities for pharmaceutical companies and insurance technology platforms [20][25] - The report outlines key points from the government work report, including the optimization of drug procurement policies, the establishment of an innovative drug directory, and the strengthening of basic medical services, all of which are expected to enhance the healthcare landscape in China [20][21][22]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the US stock market experienced a collective decline due to weak economic data and the escalation of Trump's tariff policies, with the S&P 500 index falling by 3.1%, marking the largest weekly drop since September of the previous year [2][9]. - Labor market data was below expectations, with the ADP employment number for February increasing by only 77,000, significantly lower than the expected 140,000, and the non-farm payrolls recording an increase of 151,000, slightly below the forecast of 160,000 [2][10]. - The ISM manufacturing PMI for February dropped to 50.3, close to the threshold indicating contraction, raising concerns about a potential recession [2][10]. Group 2 - The report notes that the Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish stance, with Chairman Powell indicating that there is no rush to cut interest rates until the impacts of Trump's policies become clearer [11][12]. - The report mentions that the Fed's decision-making should avoid overreacting to short-term fluctuations in monthly economic data, with expectations of two rate cuts this year still considered reasonable [11][12]. - Concerns about structural risks accumulating despite a solid economic foundation were raised by various Fed officials, indicating potential threats to the dollar's status as a reserve currency [11][12]. Group 3 - The report tracks global asset performance, noting that the Hang Seng Index had the highest increase at 5.62%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index saw a decline of 3.45% [38][43]. - In the commodities market, COMEX silver recorded the largest gain at 3.56%, while NYMEX light crude oil experienced the most significant drop at 4.15% [56][57]. - The foreign exchange market saw the euro appreciating by 3.79% against the renminbi, while the US dollar depreciated by 0.63% [50][52].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Hold" rating for the company [4][52]. Core Views - The company, a state-owned enterprise under the Fujian Investment Development Group, has a strong performance in offshore wind power and is well-positioned for future growth due to its advantageous location and abundant wind resources in Fujian Province [2][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from the optimization of competitive allocation rules for offshore wind projects, which will enhance its revenue potential [3][39]. - The Fujian Investment Development Group plans to inject quality renewable energy assets into the company, which could significantly increase its installed capacity and market competitiveness [3][42]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in May 1998, the company focuses on wind power while also engaging in photovoltaic and biomass energy projects. It ranks among the top in annual power generation in Fujian Province, particularly excelling in offshore wind projects [2][12]. Market and Competitive Landscape - In 2024, the national wind power generation reached 9360.5 billion kWh, marking an 11.1% year-on-year increase. Fujian Province has maintained a zero wind abandonment rate, indicating strong demand for wind energy [3][19]. - The provincial government has initiated competitive allocation for offshore wind projects, with a total installed capacity of 2 million kW, which is expected to lower costs and improve efficiency for companies like the report's subject [3][39]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 1.784 billion, 1.816 billion, and 1.818 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 725 million, 750 million, and 774 million yuan for the same years [4][46]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.38, 0.39, and 0.41 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.9, 12.5, and 12.1 [4][52]. Asset Injection and Growth Potential - The Fujian Investment Development Group has committed to injecting renewable energy assets into the company, which could add approximately 240.8 million kW of installed capacity, significantly enhancing the company's scale and profitability [3][42]. - The company is expected to leverage its strong position in offshore wind energy, with projects anticipated to have high utilization hours and profitability [3][42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the technology sector is experiencing a structural market shift, with a focus on emerging industries such as low-altitude economy, smart driving, and commercial aerospace [10][13][45] - The report highlights that the overall market has shown a strong performance, with the All A index rising by 2.43%, led by indices such as the CSI 1000 and the Sci-Tech 50 [10][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies, particularly the inclusion of "stabilizing the real estate and stock markets" in the government work report, which reflects a commitment to promoting healthy capital market development [13][45] Group 2 - The market observation section notes a decrease in the stock-bond yield spread to 1.4%, indicating a rise in valuation differentiation [20][22] - Market sentiment has adjusted, with a 33.1% decrease in the five-dimensional market sentiment index, suggesting a cooling in overall market enthusiasm [22][24] - The report identifies that the defense, banking, and non-ferrous metal sectors have a high proportion of bullish stocks, indicating potential alpha opportunities within these industries [27][28] Group 3 - The industry hotspots include the launch of Manus, an AI Agent product, which is expected to accelerate breakthroughs in AI technology [40] - Shenzhen is advancing its development as a pioneer city in artificial intelligence, with multiple action plans aimed at fostering innovation and industry growth [41] - The report mentions an upcoming seminar on AI glasses, which aims to promote healthy development within the AI glasses industry, highlighting significant growth potential [42] Group 4 - The industry allocation suggests a focus on technology, cyclical sectors, emerging consumption, and brokerage firms, with an emphasis on the synergy between technology and cyclical sectors [45][46] - The report recommends attention to mergers and acquisitions, debt restructuring, sustained demand growth, and companies with predictable growth trajectories as key investment directions [46]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [6][13]. Core Insights - The core indicator for the implementation of AI is the scale of AI cloud, which is expected to reflect the trend of AI application success rates [3][4]. - The AI infrastructure is essential for accelerating multimodal implementation and improving the success rate of AI applications, drawing parallels with the mobile internet era [4]. - The AI infrastructure supply chain is structured as follows: AI Cloud → IDC → Chip Design → Wafer Manufacturing, with each segment playing a critical role in the overall ecosystem [5]. Summary by Sections AI Cloud - The growth of AI applications such as Deepseek, Doubao, and Yuanbao is anticipated to significantly drive the growth of major cloud service providers like Alibaba Cloud, Volcano Cloud, and Tencent Cloud, as well as Xiaomi's AI terminal boosting Kingsoft Cloud [5]. IDC - The expansion of AI cloud services relies heavily on resource reserves, which will determine the ability to secure orders from AI cloud vendors [5]. Chip Design - Leading companies in chip design such as Huawei and Cambricon are expected to benefit from the strong demand for domestic chips in inference scenarios, with a focus on the production capacity of top chip designers in 2025 [5]. Wafer Manufacturing - As the foundational layer of AI infrastructure, wafer manufacturing is crucial, with the production capacity of advanced processes being a key factor influencing the output of AI chips [5]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies to focus on include: 1. AI Cloud: Alibaba Group, Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group (Kingsoft Cloud) 2. Wafer Manufacturing: SMIC (Hong Kong), Hua Hong Semiconductor (Hong Kong) 3. IDC: A-share companies like Runze Technology and Guanghuan Xinwang; US-listed companies like GDS Holdings and CenturyLink 4. Chip Design: Cambricon and Huafeng Technology (Huawei's computing power supply chain) [6].

➢ 糖尿病治疗面临的挑战 ➢ 未来展望 华福证券 2025 年 3 月 9 日 糖尿病全球市场情况跟踪 团队成员 投资要点： 图表1：2022 年各国糖尿病患病人数（≥18 岁） 华福证券 数据来源：柳叶刀-NCD-RisC-Worldwide trends in diabetes prevalence and treatment from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 1108 population-representative studies with 141 million participants、华福证券研究所 1. 诊断率与治疗需求提升：根据柳叶刀数据显示，2022 年我国 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 策 略 点 评 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 ➢ 全球糖尿病市场现状 1. 患者规模：柳叶刀数据显示，全球糖尿病患病率在过去三十余 年间显著上升。2022 年全球成年（≥18 岁）糖尿病患者达 8.28 亿，较 1990 年增加了 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector has shown resilience with significant price increases in various sub-industries, particularly titanium dioxide and coatings, while some sectors like tires have faced declines [3][13]. - The launch of the world's first large-scale bio-based 1,3-butanediol facility by Wanhua Chemical is a notable development, emphasizing sustainability and reduced carbon emissions [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines for the transformation and upgrading of the civil explosives industry, aiming for higher safety and quality standards by 2027 [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.56%, with the chemical sector indices also showing positive growth, particularly the Shenwan Chemical Index which increased by 2.27% [11]. - The top-performing sub-industries included titanium dioxide (6.05%) and coatings (4.17%), while the tire industry saw a decline of 1.8% [13]. Key Industry Developments - Wanhua Chemical's new facility for bio-based 1,3-butanediol is expected to significantly reduce CO2 emissions by up to 70% per ton produced, aligning with carbon neutrality goals [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's new guidelines aim to enhance the competitiveness and safety of the civil explosives industry, targeting the establishment of 3 to 5 large enterprises with international competitiveness by 2027 [3]. Investment Themes - The tire sector is highlighted as having strong domestic competitiveness, with recommended companies including Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to recover, with a focus on upstream material companies benefiting from the panel supply chain [4]. - The phosphorous and fluorine chemical sectors are noted for their resilience, with supply constraints and increasing demand supporting their market positions [4]. - The report suggests that leading chemical companies with scale advantages will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence, recommending companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the defense and military industry [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the accelerated completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for military construction, highlighting the importance of achieving the military's centenary goals and the overall modernization of the nation [3][44]. - The macroeconomic context reiterates the significance of completing the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a strong focus on the military industry and the commitment to achieving set goals [3][44]. - The report indicates a strong recovery in demand for the military industry expected by 2025, suggesting a positive outlook for future funding and market confidence [3][45]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Military Index (801740) increased by 6.96% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 1.39%, resulting in a relative excess return of 5.58 percentage points [3][10]. - The military index has shown a 19.88% increase since May 2024, compared to a 9.42% increase in the CSI 300 Index, indicating a strong performance relative to other sectors [10][18]. Funding and Valuation - There was a significant increase in financing purchases this week, reflecting growing market confidence in the military sector [3][45]. - As of March 7, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Military Index stands at 62.52, indicating a high valuation level but also suggesting strong potential for recovery in the industry by 2025 [4][45]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes: traditional main battle equipment and high-elasticity sectors that will cross into the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [4][45]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Traditional Equipment: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft, and others [4][45]. - High-Elasticity Sectors: Commercial engines, materials, and low-cost drones [4][49]. Sector Dynamics - The report notes that various sub-sectors within the military industry, such as aerospace and commercial space, have shown strong performance, particularly driven by government policy support [10][22]. - The commercial aerospace sector has been highlighted as a key area of growth, benefiting from recent government initiatives [10][22].