北 华福证券 食品饮料 政策预期反复强化，消费机会需阶段演绎 投资要点： 【白酒】12 月 9 日中共中央政治局召开会议，为明年的经济工作指明方向： 稳中求进、以进促稳，实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 从基本面上来看，虽然政策端目前积极推出利好政策，稳增长举措积极， 助力经济修复的信号明显，但需求的恢复不能一蹴而就，宏观各项政策落 地带来的效果需要时间去陆续显现，短期内白酒板块的量价压力仍在。建 议关注茅台、五粮液、老窖、古井、汾酒、舍得酒业、水井坊。 【啤酒】重点推荐高端化核心标的青岛啤酒、提效改革叠加大单品逻辑的 燕京啤酒。 【软饮料】建议关注：1）功能饮料赛道龙头且逐步探索出第二增长曲线的 东鹏饮料；2）基本面具备积极预期的香飘飘。 【预调酒】重点推荐预调酒行业龙头百润股份，历史行情通常为大单品所 驱动的 PE 扩张，11 月 19 号，公司威士忌正式上市，当前公司 25 年 PE 为 33 倍上下，我们认为具备较大赔率。 【乳制品】重点推荐利润导向明显的全国乳企巨头伊利股份，关注其产品 结构优化带来的毛利率改善情况以及费用率投放情况。建议关注新乳业。 【休闲零食】目前企业开始逐渐进入新一 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of social financing is stabilizing, with a November increase of 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion yuan. The total social financing stock at the end of November grew by 7.8% year-on-year, consistent with the end of October [1] - Direct financing, driven by government bonds, has positively supported the increase in social financing, with 1.59 trillion yuan added in November, a year-on-year increase of 269.7 billion yuan [1] - The report anticipates a rebound in credit demand due to more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which are expected to boost credit demand in the coming months [5] Summary by Sections Social Financing - In November, the new social financing was 2.34 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion yuan. The structure of new social financing shows that direct financing, particularly from government bonds, has provided positive support [1] - The total social financing stock at the end of November was 7.8% higher than the previous year, maintaining the same growth rate as the end of October [1] Credit Demand - Corporate credit demand has contracted, with new corporate loans of 250 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year decrease of 572.1 billion yuan. The demand for medium to long-term loans from enterprises has also decreased [2] - However, there is a marginal improvement in the demand for residential medium to long-term loans, with new loans of 210 billion yuan, supported by recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [3] M1 and M2 Growth - The M1 and M2 growth rates in November were -3.7% and 7.1%, respectively, with M1 growth rebounding due to increased corporate deposits, which rose by 740 billion yuan year-on-year [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued and low-positioned stocks in the banking sector, particularly Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank, and others, as they are expected to perform well in the upcoming recovery phase of the economy [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry, indicating expected returns above the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next 6 to 12 months [1][69]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing intensified competition, with several new models set to launch in 2024, which may impact market dynamics [10][11]. - The report highlights the challenges faced by emerging electric vehicle manufacturers, particularly the case of Jiyue Auto, which is struggling with low sales and potential dissolution [10][11]. - Recent data shows a significant increase in retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicles, with retail sales for the first week of December reaching 502,000 units, a 32% year-on-year increase [30][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: Intensified Competition Among Automakers - Jiyue Auto is attempting to navigate financial challenges and has announced a shift to a "2.0 stage" of entrepreneurship, but faces severe competition and low sales figures [10][11]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced new vehicle models that will be launched in 2024, indicating ongoing competition in the market [11][12]. 2. Market Performance - From December 9 to December 13, the automotive sector increased by 0.7%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.7 percentage points [14][20]. - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has risen by 19.2%, ranking 7th among 31 sectors [14][20]. 3. Key Industry Data 3.1 Vehicle Sales Data - Retail sales of passenger vehicles for December 1-8 reached 502,000 units, a 32% increase year-on-year, while wholesale sales were 565,000 units, up 55% year-on-year [30][31]. - New energy vehicle retail sales for the same period were 255,000 units, reflecting a 72% year-on-year increase [30][31]. 3.2 Overall Production and Sales - In November, total vehicle sales reached 3.316 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [34]. - Year-to-date, total vehicle sales are 27.94 million units, showing a 3.7% increase compared to the previous year [34]. 4. Industry News - Nvidia is under investigation for potential antitrust violations, which may have implications for the automotive technology sector [62]. - A strategic partnership between Pony.ai and GAC Aion aims to develop a Robotaxi platform, with the first models expected to launch in 2025 [62]. - BYD anticipates achieving a total of 4.25 million new energy vehicle sales in 2024, reflecting strong growth in the sector [64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation and recovery as the main themes for investment in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in the context of ongoing drug procurement reforms and market recovery [2][3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Mid-term Investment Strategy and Recommended Focus - The pharmaceutical sector can gradually increase allocations, with potential for excess returns post semi-annual reports [12]. - Key policies for 2024 include the comprehensive promotion of DRG/DIP, adjustments to the essential drug list, and enhanced efficiency assessments for state-owned enterprises [12]. - The report suggests focusing on aging populations and import substitution as long-term investment keywords [12]. 2. Normalization of Traditional Chinese Medicine Procurement - The normalization of traditional Chinese medicine procurement is expanding, with the average price drop for traditional Chinese medicine ranging from 23% to 56%, significantly lower than the 70% drop for chemical drugs [3][22]. - The third batch of national procurement documents for traditional Chinese medicine was officially released in December 2024, indicating a shift towards regular procurement practices [3][22]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Hotspot Tracking (Dec 9 - Dec 13, 2024) - The CITIC pharmaceutical index fell by 0.9% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical sector's overall performance aligns with the broader market trends, with specific segments like traditional Chinese medicine showing relative strength [3]. 4. Recommended Focus for Short-term Investments - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs, brand-name traditional Chinese medicine, and medical devices as key areas for investment in the short term [3][12]. - Notable companies to watch include Kangfang Biopharma, Yunding New Medicine, and Juning Pharmaceutical, among others [3][12].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Viewpoints - From January to November, the national railway passenger volume reached a historical high of 4.015 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, with passenger turnover reaching 14,840.61 billion passenger-kilometers, up 7.8% [2] - The national railway freight volume also showed stable growth, with 4.715 billion tons transported from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [2] - Cumulative fixed asset investment in railways reached 711.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, with 2,298 kilometers of new railway lines put into operation [2] - The goal of reaching 200,000 kilometers of railway by 2035 presents significant market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [2] Summary by Sections Passenger Transport - The national railway passenger sending volume for January to November was 4.015 billion, marking a 12.6% increase year-on-year, with November alone seeing 304 million trips, an 8.8% increase [2] - Passenger turnover for the same period was 14,840.61 billion passenger-kilometers, up 7.8% year-on-year [2] Freight Transport - The national railway freight sending volume for January to November was 4.715 billion tons, a 2.5% increase year-on-year, with November's freight volume at 455 million tons, up 6.4% [2] - Freight turnover reached 3,245.21 billion ton-kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [2] Investment and Infrastructure - Fixed asset investment in railways totaled 711.7 billion yuan from January to November, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year growth [2] - The operational railway mileage continues to grow, with a target of 200,000 kilometers by 2035, creating vast market space for the rail transit equipment sector [2] Recommended Companies - China CNR: A leading global supplier of rail transit equipment, maintaining the top position in revenue [2] - China Railway Signal & Communication: A global leader in rail transit control systems [2] - Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [2] - Sifang Control: A core supplier in the field of high-speed rail comprehensive monitoring [2] - Shenzhou High-speed Railway: A leading enterprise in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit [2] - Huizhong Technology: Provides integrated solutions for rail transit operation and maintenance [2]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [2][7]. Core Insights - Tesla's Optimus robot demonstrated impressive outdoor walking capabilities on rugged terrain, maintaining balance without visual input [1]. - The first large-scale application of a quadruped robot, X30, was successfully delivered to Singapore's energy group for tunnel inspection, marking a significant milestone for domestic robotics in overseas markets [1]. - The upcoming third-generation Optimus is expected to feature advanced tactile sensors and electronic skin, which could enhance its functionality and market potential [1]. Summary by Sections Tesla's Optimus Developments - Tesla released a new video showcasing Optimus's ability to walk on uneven outdoor surfaces, highlighting its neural network control capabilities [1]. - Optimus can perform tasks such as catching and placing a tennis ball, indicating advancements in dexterity and control [1]. Industry Applications - The X30 quadruped robot was delivered to Singapore's SP Group for power tunnel inspections, representing the first deployment of such technology in an overseas power system [1]. - Strategic partnerships are being formed to explore applications in nuclear and other specialized industries [1]. Future Prospects - The third-generation Optimus is anticipated to include enhancements such as a larger tactile sensing area and improved control mechanisms [1]. - Companies to watch include those involved in robotics and related technologies, such as UBTECH, Jingye Intelligent, and various sensor and motor manufacturers [1].

Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Views - The US microreactor developer NANO Nuclear Energy has signed multiple cooperation agreements, including with the US Department of Energy, the government of Togo, and Canadian startup Vert2Grow Energy Solutions [2] - Uzbekistan has signed several nuclear energy cooperation memorandums, aiming to establish productive cooperation and share experiences in atomic energy utilization [2] - Nuclear power is highlighted as a clean, safe, and efficient energy source, with an annual utilization rate exceeding 7,000 hours, making it a key force in promoting green energy transformation [3] Company Focus - **Jiadian Co Ltd**: The main helium fan is the only power equipment in the primary circuit of the fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactor, and its subsidiary Hadian Electric's nuclear main pump products lead in the nuclear power business segment [3] - **Guoguang Electric**: The company's diverters and blanket systems are key components of the ITER project [3] - **Lanzhou LS Heavy Equipment**: Covers the upstream nuclear fuel system, midstream nuclear power plant equipment, and downstream spent fuel reprocessing [3] - **Kexin Electromechanical**: Manufactures high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power products and has achieved import substitution for new fuel transport containers [3] - **Hailu Heavy Industry**: Services include third and fourth-generation reactors as well as thermonuclear fusion reactors (ITER) [3] - **Jiangsu Shentong**: Secured over 90% of the orders for nuclear-grade butterfly valves and ball valves in China's new nuclear power projects [3] - **Xianheng International**: The company's products are already applied in the operation and maintenance of nuclear power fields [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [5]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in both prices and demand, with leading companies benefiting from scale and cost advantages [5]. - Key investment themes include the tire sector, consumer electronics, resilient cyclical industries, and supply disruptions in vitamins [5][4][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.36%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 1.01%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index dropped by 0.73% [15]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included other plastic products (up 2.12%) and food and feed additives (up 1.93%), while potassium fertilizers saw a decline of 3.97% [17][15]. 2. Major Industry Developments - Evonik announced a large-scale restructuring plan, consolidating its business lines into two new segments with annual sales of approximately €6 billion each [2]. - Hualu Hengsheng's nylon 66 project has entered trial production, with an expected annual capacity of 200,000 tons of adipic acid, supported by a total investment of ¥3.078 billion [2]. 3. Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are becoming increasingly competitive, with notable growth potential. Recommended stocks include Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [2]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery in demand is anticipated, benefiting upstream material companies. Key players include Dongcai Technology and Stik [3]. - **Cyclical Industries**: Focus on industries with strong resilience and inventory destocking, particularly in phosphate and fluorine chemicals [4]. - **Vitamin Supply Disruptions**: BASF's supply issues with vitamins A and E are expected to create market imbalances, highlighting investment opportunities in Zhejiang Medicine and New Heavens [5]. 4. Sub-sector Reviews - **Polyurethane**: Pure MDI prices in East China rose to ¥18,800 per ton, with a 1.08% week-on-week increase [29]. - **Tire Production**: Full steel tire production load was 57.22%, down 1.61 percentage points from the previous week [49]. - **Fertilizers**: Urea prices decreased to ¥1,840.7 per ton, with a 0.81% decline week-on-week [58].

Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the market (maintained rating) [3] Core Views - PA6 prices increased month-on-month, while spandex prices slightly decreased [2][12] - High operating rates maintained in the supply side [2][30] - Fabric exports increased year-on-year, while US apparel inventory rose slightly month-on-month [2][42] - Domestic demand improvement and overseas inventory reduction are expected to boost fiber demand [2] - Industry concentration is expected to increase after this round of expansion, with a potential slowdown in future expansion pace, leading to an upward trend in industry prosperity [2] Price Analysis - PA6 price: 12,700 RMB/ton, up 2.0% month-on-month [2][11] - Spandex price: 23,750 RMB/ton, down 1.0% month-on-month [2][11] - Caprolactam price: 11,275 RMB/ton, up 5.4% month-on-month [2][11] - Adipic acid price: 8,150 RMB/ton, up 2.2% month-on-month [2][11] - Nylon staple fiber price: 13,950 RMB/ton, up 2.2% month-on-month [2][11] - Acrylic staple fiber price: 14,250 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month [2][11] - Viscose staple fiber price: 13,850 RMB/ton, down 0.4% month-on-month [2][11] - PA66 price: 23,900 RMB/ton, down 1.4% month-on-month [2][11] Supply Analysis - Spandex operating rate: 87%, inventory: 49 days [2][30] - Acrylic operating rate: 51.1%, inventory: 16 days [2][30] - Viscose staple fiber operating rate: 89%, inventory: 5 days [2][30] Downstream Demand Analysis - Textile yarn, fabric, and related product exports: $12.3 billion, up 23.7% year-on-year [2][42] - Apparel and clothing accessories exports: $130.9 billion, up 8.1% year-on-year [2][42] - US apparel and fabric wholesaler inventory: $281.61 billion, up 0.3% month-on-month [2][42] Investment Recommendations - Focus on differentiated nylon leader Juheshun and cost-advantaged spandex leader Huafon Chemical [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][47]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the caustic soda sector is expected to experience an upturn in demand, particularly due to limited new capacity driven by policy support, suggesting potential investment opportunities in chlor-alkali chemicals and Binhu Chemical [2]. Summary by Sections Prices - As of December 14, liquid caustic soda is priced at 1,030 CNY/ton, down 3.3% month-on-month. PVC prices are also declining, with ethylene-based PVC at 5,850 CNY/ton, down 1.7%, and calcium carbide-based PVC at 4,750 CNY/ton, down 4.0% [12][2]. Supply - The production of caustic soda reached 826,100 tons with an operating rate of 88.94% as of December 12. PVC operating rates are at 78.91%, with inventories of 274,380 tons [23][2]. Downstream Demand - In November, alumina production was 7.434 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The paper and paper products industry saw a 5% increase in industrial added value year-on-year. However, real estate construction area has decreased significantly, with a cumulative decline of 30% in housing construction area and 35.6% in completed real estate area [36][2].