Inflation Data Summary - July CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.0%, primarily due to weak food prices[3] - Core CPI improved for the third consecutive month, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, driven by higher gold prices and strong service consumption[3] - July PPI remained at a near 23-month low, with a year-on-year decline of -3.6%[3] Food Prices Impact - July food CPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month, significantly below seasonal levels by 0.9 percentage points[4] - Year-on-year food CPI dropped by 1.6%, influenced by a high base from the previous year[4] - Fresh vegetable and meat prices increased by 1.3% and 0.4% month-on-month, respectively, but were still below seasonal averages[4] Core CPI Drivers - Service prices remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with significant increases in travel-related costs: airfares up 17.9%, hotel stays up 6.9%[5] - Gold and platinum jewelry prices surged by 37.1% and 27.3% year-on-year, respectively, due to rising gold prices[5] - Transportation fuel prices saw a reduced decline of 1.8 percentage points to -9.0% year-on-year[5] PPI Trends - PPI's month-on-month decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting the impact of "anti-involution" measures[6] - International oil prices increased, contributing to a 3.0% rise in oil and gas extraction month-on-month[6] - Investment demand remains weak, limiting PPI recovery to a gradual improvement[6]

Core Conclusions - The speed of market rotation has significantly accelerated, with the rotation index dropping to 61.95% in 2025, and the duration of hot themes shortening, with most themes lasting less than or equal to 20 days [3][4] - The relationship between rotation speed and funding structure indicates that during accelerated rotation, financing balances are highly synchronized with the index, while during slower rotations, financing responses lag [3][14] - Based on the alpha158 factor, derived strategies were constructed for wind hot rotation, industry rotation, and hot index mapping leading stocks. The index rotation strategy achieved an annualized return of 20.25%, outperforming industry rotation at 16.03% [3][4] Industry Rotation Effective Factors - Quantile factors (QTLU/QTUD) are identified as effective for industry rotation, with support momentum (QTUD) being more effective in bear markets and resistance momentum (QTLU) in bull markets [3][4] - The proportion of positive volatility (SUMN) indicates stronger industry strength, while extreme value factors (RSV/MAX) are sensitive to hot themes [3][4] Hot Index Rotation Optimization - The analysis utilized 68 Wind hot indices, focusing on core factors such as quantile factors (QTLU_20_95) and residual ranking factors (RESI30, RANK20) which have shown high win rates in recent years [4][6] - The adjustment strategy involves T+1 closing for rebalancing to mitigate factor decay, with the top 5 components of hot indices yielding an annualized return of 15.79%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 [4][6] Strategy Application - For industry rotation holdings in 2025, high-frequency positions include banking, automotive, and non-ferrous metals, with recent additions in coal and basic chemicals [4][6] - Hot index holdings for July 2025 included semiconductor, lithium mining, and energy equipment, while automotive parts and liquor indices were removed [4][6] Market Rotation Dynamics - The analysis indicates that the speed of rotation is influenced by the structure of market participation funds, with rapid rotation correlating with high retail participation and financing balance synchronization [14][18] - In contrast, slower rotation reflects a dominance of institutional funds, leading to a significant lag in financing balances compared to index gains [14][18] Performance of Hot Rotation Strategies - The report suggests that in recent years of rapid hot rotation, short-term trend strategies are more likely to achieve excess returns [21][27] - The effectiveness of the index rotation has been higher than that of industry rotation in the past three years, indicating a shift in alpha generation from broader industry to more granular segments [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% in stock price compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [6][17]. Core Viewpoints - The company is leading the global progress with its product AK112, which is expected to capture the largest market share in the second-generation IO market [2][4]. - The broad-spectrum anti-cancer effects of PD-1 and VEGF targets are promising, with a significant existing market potential of nearly 60 billion USD globally [3]. - The company has already received approval for two indications of AK112 in China, making it the only PD-1/VEGF dual antibody product available globally [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 35.18 billion, 57.65 billion, and 93.72 billion CNY respectively, with net profits expected to be -1.86 billion, 8.03 billion, and 29.66 billion CNY [6][8]. - The estimated peak overseas sales for AK112, after risk adjustments, could reach approximately 197 billion USD [6]. - The report calculates a reasonable market value of 222.8 billion HKD based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 8.06% and a perpetual growth rate of 1% [6].

周期、制造多主题走出主升形态 团队成员 策 略 研 究 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 周期、制造多主题走出主升形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速 的主题指数数量分别有 0、3、25、0 只。其中，3 只突破形态的主题指数， 行业为有色金属、公用事业。25 只主升形态的主题指数，行业主要为机械 设备、电子、军工。 人形机器人、Deepseek 主题交易热度有所回暖，对应龙头股收盘价高 于 MA60 的位置。我们对人形机器人、Deepseek 主题进行交易热度的监控， 并且观察龙头股的调整程度。其中，人形机器人的交易热度回升至 80%， 长盛轴承的收盘价高于 MA60 ...

Group 1: UK Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of England (BoE) faced challenges in lowering interest rates due to rising inflation expectations, ultimately deciding to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.0% on August 7, 2025[3] - The BoE raised its food inflation forecast for Q3 2025 by 1.5 percentage points to 5.0%, expecting it to rise further to 5.5% by the end of 2025[3] - The nominal yield on 10-year UK government bonds increased by 323 basis points from February 1, 2022, to August 6, 2025, indicating a steepening yield curve[4] Group 2: US Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US is expected to impact global economies, with significant implications for non-US developed economies[5] - Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 0.7 thousand to 226 thousand, suggesting potential upward revisions in future employment data[5] - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, but strong consumer spending and non-residential investment contrast with the weak demand seen in the UK and other non-US developed economies[5] Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The recent tariffs imposed by the US range from 10% to 41%, affecting various trade partners, including China, and potentially leading to a restructuring of global supply chains[6] - The dollar index is expected to rebound after a temporary decline, which may put pressure on the Chinese yuan[6] - The report suggests that the People's Bank of China may consider a small rate cut of 10 basis points to stimulate demand in the real estate market[6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Risk Factor Exposure Regression for Fixed Income+ Funds - **Model Construction Idea**: The model regresses the net asset value (NAV) of Fixed Income+ funds against pure style factor returns of various asset classes to determine the risk exposure of these funds to different asset categories [4][19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The NAV of Fixed Income+ funds is regressed on the pure style factor returns of various asset classes, including bonds, stocks, and convertible bonds [4][19] 2. For bond assets, the model identifies changes in duration and credit strategy exposure by comparing the average risk factor exposure between the current and previous months [4][19] 3. For convertible bonds, the model calculates the exposure to parity risk factors and tracks changes in overall positioning [4][23] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the dynamic risk exposure of Fixed Income+ funds across different asset classes, providing insights into their allocation strategies [4][19] 2. Model Name: Fixed Income+ Fund Optimal Portfolio Construction - **Model Construction Idea**: The model selects 10 funds quarterly based on multiple dimensions such as win rate and odds, and allocates them equally to construct an optimal portfolio [5][26] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Quarterly selection of 10 funds based on criteria such as win rate and odds [5][26] 2. Equal-weight allocation of the selected funds to form the optimal portfolio [5][26] - **Model Evaluation**: The constructed portfolio demonstrates more stable performance compared to the secondary bond fund index, outperforming it by 0.36% in the current month [5][27] 3. Model Name: Pure Bond Fund Optimal Portfolio Construction - **Model Construction Idea**: The model selects funds with alpha characteristics within one standard deviation of market averages across various style exposures and allocates them equally to construct an optimal portfolio [7][45] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Identify funds with style exposures within one standard deviation of market averages [7][45] 2. Select 10 funds with high alpha characteristics on a quarterly basis [7][45] 3. Allocate the selected funds equally to form the optimal portfolio [7][45] - **Model Evaluation**: The portfolio outperformed the mid-to-long-term pure bond fund index by 0.16% year-to-date, demonstrating its effectiveness in generating excess returns [7][46] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Bond Risk Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factors include duration, slope, convexity, credit, and default, which are used to measure the risk exposure of pure bond funds [6][42] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Regress the NAV of pure bond funds on the five factors: duration, slope, convexity, credit, and default [6][42] 2. Analyze the mean changes in factor exposures between the current and previous months [6][42] 3. Assess the dispersion of factor exposures to evaluate consistency in fund strategies [6][42] - **Factor Evaluation**: The analysis reveals a significant increase in credit exposure and a decrease in convexity exposure, with low dispersion in credit exposure, indicating consistent adoption of credit strategies among funds [6][42] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Risk Factor Exposure Regression for Fixed Income+ Funds - No specific numerical backtesting results provided 2. Fixed Income+ Fund Optimal Portfolio Construction - Outperformed the secondary bond fund index by 0.36% in the current month [5][27] 3. Pure Bond Fund Optimal Portfolio Construction - Outperformed the mid-to-long-term pure bond fund index by 0.16% year-to-date [7][46] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Bond Risk Factors - Credit exposure increased significantly, while convexity exposure decreased [6][42] - Low standard deviation in credit exposure indicates consistent strategy adoption [6][42]

Export Performance - In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up 1.4 percentage points from June, continuing the improvement trend since May[1] - Exports to ASEAN rose by 16.6% year-on-year, while exports to South Korea increased by 4.6%, marking a significant recovery[2] - Exports to the US saw a decline of 21.7%, deepening by 5.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a stronger impact from tariffs[2] Import Trends - Imports in July rose by 4.1% year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3.0 percentage points, driven primarily by recovering crude oil prices[1] - The trade surplus narrowed slightly to $98.24 billion in July, reflecting the dynamics of both exports and imports[1] - The contribution of processing trade intermediate goods and capital goods imports fell by 0.6 percentage points, indicating a cooling in these sectors[5] Market Outlook - The extension of the tariff relief period by the US is expected to marginally boost exports of electromechanical products and mid-range consumer goods[6] - The imposition of 15% tariffs on other major trading partners may enhance China's export price competitiveness but could also weaken demand from these economies[6] - The semiconductor and machinery sectors may face challenges due to increased tariffs on key supply chain partners like Mexico and Vietnam[6]

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 08 月 07 日 新关税形势下出口走强能否延续？ ——国际贸易数据点评（2025.7） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 原关税缓和期尾部我国 7 月出口同比再度回升；原油价格回暖带动进口增 速连续大幅改善。7 月出口（美元计价，下同）同比较 6 月再度上行 1.4 个百 分点至 7.2%，延续了 5 月以来出口连续改善的趋势，再度凸显中美 5 月中旬 达成的 90 天关税缓和期、以及美国对其他地区实施的缓和期尾部对我国出口 的总体拉动作用。近期美国关税形势进入新阶段，对华延长 90 天缓冲期，但 对其他主要经济体均采取更高税率，我国出口面临的新形势或更趋复杂多变。 原油价格回暖带动 7 月进口同比再度大幅改善 3.0 个百分点至 4.1%，当月货物 对美出口跌幅再度加深，对协同供给伙伴在缓和期末出口高增，对非美发 达经济出口跌多增少。7 月美国明确提出在 8 月结束对除我国以外地区的关税 缓和期并对转口贸易加征更高关税。这在逻辑上指向我国对协同供给伙伴的出 口可能在 7 月出现抢运以规避未来更高的关税风险，数据与逻辑匹配度较高， 7 月对东盟出口同比 16.6%，尽管小幅 ...

AI UGC："Coding+多模态"重估平台价值 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 传媒 2025 年 08 月 07 日 快手可灵 2.0 为短视频 UGC 提质增效。2024 年 6 月推出可灵模 型，2025 年 4 月可灵发布 2.0 大师版，迭代一年月活用户增长 25 倍，全球用户突破 2200 万，累计生成视频超过 1.68 亿个、图片超过 3.44 亿张素材。通过可灵模型的赋能，短视频创作者极大提升内容生 产效率与视觉表现力，推动平台 UGC 视频质量与多样性提升。 华福证券 证 券 哔哩哔哩 AI 相关 UGC 内容高增。哔哩哔哩在 AI 相关内容的创 作与消费上持续高速增长。2025 年 Q1，平台 AI 相关视频观看时长 同比提升超 100%，吸引大量年轻用户涌入探索与学习 AI。平台内涌 现出涵盖 AI 绘画、视频生成 编程等多领域的创作社区，相关作品数 量和互动热度显著攀升，进一步巩固了其作为国内年轻用户聚集的 AI 内容创作与分享核心阵地的地位。 研 3、AI UGC 赋能 IP 开发平台：阅文集团 究 报 告 阅文集团计划运用 AI 对 IP 进行动漫化开发。阅文集团孵化大量 爆款头部 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [16]. Core Insights - The company's financial indicators have shown comprehensive improvement, with significant profit growth. For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.6% and 10.2%, respectively. In Q2, revenue and net profit grew by 4.0% and 26.9% year-on-year, reflecting an acceleration in growth compared to Q1 [3][4]. - Risk indicators continue to improve, providing room for profit release. By the end of Q2 2025, the non-performing loan balance and ratio decreased, with the non-performing loan ratio at 1.31%, down 2 basis points from Q1. The non-performing loan balance was 73.67 billion, a decrease of 0.61 billion from Q1 [4]. - The asset-liability structure has been optimized, leading to a narrowing decline in net interest margin. By the end of Q2 2025, loans increased by 6.0% year-on-year, and deposits grew by 12%, significantly outpacing total liabilities [5]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 3.0%, 4.2%, and 5.4% for 2025-2027, while net profit growth rates are projected at 11.2%, 5.3%, and 6.6% for the same period. The report maintains these forecasts from previous assessments [5][7]. - The report provides detailed financial projections, including operating revenue of 1759 billion in 2025, with a net profit of 503 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 11.22% [7][11].