Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China's ROE (Return on Equity) is on a rising trend while the US ROE is on a declining trend, suggesting a potential divergence in economic cycles between the two countries [2][3] - Recent data suggests that China's export and price data reflect the effects of anti-involution, with expectations for continued strengthening of corporate profits in China [3][8] - The debt expansion in the US AI industry may reinforce expectations for price improvement and corporate profitability in China, but it could also exacerbate stagflation characteristics in the US, posing risks to US stock performance [3][9] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant decline in China's export growth, with October exports showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, down from 8.3% previously, primarily affected by a drop in exports to the EU [8] - The report notes that the global manufacturing PMI did not weaken in October, indicating that the decline in China's export growth may be more related to supply-side improvements rather than demand-side factors [8] - The report emphasizes that under a recovering price environment, market sentiment may shift towards value stocks, with a focus on export prices and US consumer data in the future [3][9] Group 3 - The report suggests that the configuration of energy investments should primarily respond to the overheating expectations of US AI investments, recommending a focus on short to medium-term trading strategies [3] - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as insurance, anti-involution industries, Chinese internet companies, and military trade [3][9] - The report indicates that the performance of the A-share market is expected to rise while the US stock market may decline, reflecting the contrasting economic cycles of China and the US [3][9]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9]. - The report identifies a total of 2 bottoming, 25 breakout, 25 main rising, and 5 accelerating thematic indices, with key industries including transportation, electric equipment, computer, media, pharmaceutical biology, and defense [12]. - The report highlights the decline in trading heat for humanoid robots to 50% and an increase for Deepseek to 45%, with leading stocks showing significant adjustments below their 60-day moving average [3][17]. Group 2 - The report outlines the two main purposes of the thematic database: to find investment opportunities and to provide warnings for potential peaks [9]. - The report details the monitoring of trading heat for popular themes, specifically humanoid robots and Deepseek, and the corresponding adjustments of leading stocks [17][22]. - The report indicates that the leading stocks for humanoid robots and Deepseek have closing prices significantly below their 60-day moving averages, suggesting potential risks in these themes [3][17].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [70]. Core Views - The report highlights ongoing supply pressure in the pig farming sector, leading to a downward trend in pig prices. As of November 7, the average pig price was 11.85 CNY/kg, down 0.69 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs sold has increased to 128.30 kg, up 0.61 kg week-on-week, indicating a shift towards heavier pigs being sold [2][10][30]. - In the beef sector, short-term prices are slightly declining, but a tightening supply is expected to lead to an upward price cycle for beef in 2026-2027. The price of calves as of November 7 was 31.93 CNY/kg, down 0.53% week-on-week, but up 32.43% year-to-date [3][32]. - The poultry sector is experiencing stable yet declining prices for meat chickens, with the average price for white feathered meat chickens at 7.09 CNY/kg as of November 7. The egg price is slightly up at 6.22 CNY/kg, indicating potential recovery in the egg market as downstream production decreases [4][40][45]. - The agricultural sector is seeing a strong performance in soybean meal prices due to changes in import tariffs on U.S. soybeans, with the spot price at 3094 CNY/ton, up 36 CNY/ton week-on-week. This is expected to support a strong trend in soybean meal prices moving forward [4][53]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Supply pressure continues, leading to a decline in pig prices. The average pig price as of November 7 is 11.85 CNY/kg, down 0.69 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs sold has increased to 128.30 kg, up 0.61 kg week-on-week [2][10][30]. - The report notes that the market is transitioning to sporadic replenishment as the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased significantly [10][30]. Beef Industry - Short-term prices for beef are slightly declining, with calf prices at 31.93 CNY/kg, down 0.53% week-on-week, but up 32.43% year-to-date. The market is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, leading to a potential price increase cycle in 2026-2027 [3][32]. Poultry Sector - The average price for white feathered meat chickens is stable at 7.09 CNY/kg, while egg prices are slightly up at 6.22 CNY/kg. The report suggests that the poultry sector may benefit from a recovery in consumption as production decreases [4][40][45]. Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is expected to remain strong due to tariff changes on U.S. soybeans, with current prices at 3094 CNY/ton, up 36 CNY/ton week-on-week. This is anticipated to support a bullish trend in soybean meal prices [4][53].

轨交设备Ⅱ 2025 年 11 月 09 日 行 业 研 究 轨交设备Ⅱ 沈白高铁运营首月累计发送旅客超 66 万人次，中国国产 列车首次亮相奥地利铁路 投资要点： 东北省际高铁首次形成闭环，沈白高铁运营首月累计发送超 66 万旅客 行 业 定 期 报 告 沈佳高铁沈阳至长白山段，简称沈白高铁，全长约 430 公里，横 跨辽宁、吉林两省。随着沈白、京哈、沈大等高铁路网相互连接，东 北省际高铁首次形成了"O"形闭环。9 月 28 日，沈白高铁开通运营。 数据显示，运营首月，沈白高铁累计运送旅客逾 66 万人次，每日开行 动车组列车最高达 64 列。回顾东北地区高铁网的发展，从一条线到一 张网再到一盘棋，截至目前，我国东北地区高铁里程已超 5000 公里。 中国国产列车首次亮相奥地利铁路 由中国企业制造的双层列车日前在奥地利首都维也纳亮相，将用 于维也纳与萨尔茨堡两座城市间客运铁路运营。这是中国制造双层列 车首次正式投入奥地利客运铁路系统。由中国中车株洲电力机车有限 公司生产的双层列车当地时间 3 日晚在维也纳火车西站亮相。该型号 列车被命名为"熊猫"，最高运营时速 200 公里，设计使用寿命 30 年。 列车由 ...

行 华福证券 机械设备 2025 年 11 月 09 日 业 研 究 机械设备 意念赋能新生活，脑机接口启新篇 投资要点： 植入者重获新生，能力升级引期待 行 业 定 全球首位 Neuralink 脑机接口植入者诺兰德・阿博，术后 21 个月已 能凭意念打字、玩游戏，还攻读神经科学专业并开展有偿演讲。马斯 克透露，阿博可能成为首个接受设备升级或双侧植入的患者，未来其 使用者有望在快速反应类电子游戏中超越人类。 技术应用显成效，未来发展藏惊喜 期 报 告 阿博为所用设备命名"Eve"，虽因压力性溃疡遭遇健康小挫折， 但仍保持乐观，计划 2026 年初发布植入两周年的 "重大消息"。随 着更多人加入临床试验，Neuralink 技术持续落地，不仅帮助患者重拾 正常生活，更在多场景应用中展现出广阔潜力。 "十五五"重点赛道，脑机接口市场规模有望快速增长 根据 precedence research，2024 年全球脑机接口市场规模约为 26.2 亿美元，预计 2025 年将达到 29.4 亿美元，到 2034 年有望增长至 124 亿美元，十年间复合年增长率为 17.35%；据工信微报，2024 年中国脑 机接口市 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [13]. Core Insights - The strategic partnership between Jingye Intelligent and domestic full-function GPU company Moore Threads aims to advance the "AI + Embodied Intelligence" strategy, with plans to launch multiple robots equipped with domestic computing solutions based on application scenarios [3][5]. - The IRON humanoid robot showcased by Xiaopeng at the Technology Day demonstrated impressive walking capabilities, while Tesla's Optimus robot also showed significant improvements in flexibility, indicating advancements in humanoid robotics [4]. - The humanoid robot market in China is projected to reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 61% from 2024 to 2030, as sales are expected to grow from approximately 4,000 units to 271,200 units [5]. Summary by Sections - **Strategic Partnerships**: Jingye Intelligent collaborates with Moore Threads to enhance AI capabilities in robotics, focusing on embodied intelligence and AI server development [3]. - **Technological Advancements**: The IRON humanoid robot and Tesla's Optimus robot showcase significant improvements in mobility and functionality, reflecting the rapid evolution in humanoid robotics [4]. - **Market Projections**: The Chinese humanoid robot market is anticipated to grow substantially, with significant increases in both market size and unit sales over the next decade [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - The global nuclear energy sector is experiencing a revival, with significant interest in small modular reactors (SMRs) as a key solution for meeting the growing energy demands of artificial intelligence [4][5]. - China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) showcased its full industry chain capabilities at the 2025 World Nuclear Energy Exhibition (WNE), highlighting technologies such as "Hualong One" and "Linglong One," which have attracted global attention [3]. - The collaboration between CNNC and international partners, including Electricité de France, emphasizes the importance of SMR technology in promoting diversified applications of nuclear energy [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the advancements in nuclear energy, particularly focusing on the development and application of small modular reactors (SMRs) [4][5]. - The exhibition highlighted CNNC's progress in small reactor construction, which has garnered interest from global corporate executives and institutional representatives [3]. Key Companies to Watch - **Jingye Intelligent**: Collaborating with Zhejiang University to establish a joint R&D center for micro-reactor/SMR technology, showing significant growth potential in the context of global AI demand and energy transition [6]. - **Jia Electric**: The main helium fan is the only power device for the primary loop of fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, with its subsidiary leading in nuclear pump products [6]. - **Guoguang Electric**: Key components for the ITER project, focusing on filter and cladding systems [6]. - **Lanshi Heavy Industry**: Covers upstream nuclear fuel systems, midstream nuclear power plant equipment, and downstream spent fuel processing [6]. - **Kexin Electromechanical**: Manufacturing high-temperature gas-cooled reactor products, with new fuel transport containers replacing imports [6]. - **Hailu Heavy Industry**: Services various reactor types, including third and fourth-generation reactors and thermonuclear fusion reactors (ITER) [6]. - **Jiangsu Shentong**: Secured over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade butterfly valves and ball valves for new nuclear power projects in China [6].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline, which has narrowed to a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% in September. Coal prices are expected to stabilize, with the lowest point for coal prices in 2025 potentially being a policy bottom. The report anticipates more supply-side policies to be introduced as competition becomes more regulated [5][6] - The coal industry is seen as being in a golden era due to energy transformation demands and strict capacity controls under carbon neutrality policies. The supply of coal is expected to be rigid, with increasing costs and regional supply differentiation [5][6] Summary by Sections Coal Prices - As of November 7, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 817 CNY/ton, up 6.1% week-on-week. The average daily output from 462 sample mines is 5.493 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,200 tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [3][30][40] - The report notes significant price increases in various coal types, with Inner Mongolia's coal price rising by 7.34% and Shanxi's by 10.13% [30][31] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port is 1860 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.68%. The average daily output from 523 sample mines is 738,000 tons, down 2.0% week-on-week [4][78] - The report highlights a decrease in the average available days of coking coal in steel mills, indicating tighter supply [78] Supply and Demand - The report indicates that the daily consumption of the six major power plants has slightly decreased to 754,000 tons, with a year-on-year decline of 4.6%. The inventory level is at 14.214 million tons, also reflecting a year-on-year decrease [42][44] - Methanol and urea production rates are reported at 87.8% and 82.7%, respectively, indicating a stable demand in the chemical sector [47] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from the coal price cycle are also highlighted as investment targets [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7]. Core Views - The report highlights that international relations have improved, leading to a further increase in spot aluminum prices [3]. - In the precious metals sector, gold and silver prices have been supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, although recent hawkish comments from Fed officials have put pressure on these prices [12]. - For industrial metals, copper prices are expected to remain supported due to tight supply conditions and strong demand from the renewable energy sector [3][19]. - The lithium market is experiencing a shift in demand from electric vehicles to energy storage, which is expected to support lithium prices in the short term [19]. - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to strong demand in the hard alloy sector and a tight supply outlook [24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report notes that gold prices are under pressure due to a decrease in the probability of further Fed rate cuts and a strengthening dollar [11][12]. - Silver prices have also been affected, with recent data showing a decline in manufacturing activity in the U.S. [12]. Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices have been buoyed by improved international relations, maintaining levels above 21,000 CNY/ton [3][17]. - Copper supply remains constrained due to production disruptions in major mining countries, while demand is expected to recover as construction projects resume [14][19]. New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are supported by strong demand for energy storage solutions, with expectations of a significant supply-demand balance improvement by 2026 [19]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to low demand and production cuts in the domestic market [20][23]. Other Minor Metals - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to strong demand and tight supply conditions, with market sentiment remaining bullish [24]. - The report indicates a mixed performance in the rare earth market, with some prices increasing while others decline [24]. Market Review - The report provides a weekly market review, highlighting significant stock movements, with Shenzhen New Star leading with a 32.62% increase [31].

- The report introduces the PCR (Put/Call Ratio) as a market sentiment indicator, which is used in a timing strategy for options trading. The strategy logic includes trend-following (PCR rising indicates positive sentiment) and counter-trend (low PCR suggests a potential sentiment reversal) approaches[5][73][65] - The PCR timing strategy is applied to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index. The strategy's performance is tracked, showing better results for the CSI 300 Index in 2025, with a year-to-date return of -2.66% and the latest signal being "no position" (signal 0)[5][83][79] - The performance metrics for the PCR strategy on the CSI 300 Index include an annualized volatility of 15.46%, a Sharpe ratio of 0, a Calmar ratio of 0.03, and a win rate of 50.25% for 2025. The overall performance from 2020 to 2025 shows an annualized return of 19.13%, a maximum drawdown of 23.42%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.97[79][83][78] - For the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, the PCR strategy's performance metrics for 2025 include an annualized volatility of 13.35%, a Sharpe ratio of -0.04, a Calmar ratio of 0, and a win rate of 50.25%. The overall performance from 2017 to 2025 shows an annualized return of 14.20%, a maximum drawdown of 24.96%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.76[80][83][78]