Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - Suzano announced a price increase of $20 per ton for commodity pulp in the Asian market for August, indicating a potential recovery in pulp and paper prices from current cyclical lows [1][4] - The report highlights the positive impact of policy changes in Beijing on the housing market, which may stimulate demand in the home furnishings sector [4] - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of price recovery in the paper industry due to supply-demand imbalances and anti-competitive pressures [4][6] Summary by Sections Home Furnishings - Recent policy optimizations in Beijing allow families to purchase multiple homes outside the city center, which is expected to enhance market dynamics [4] - Major home furnishing companies are currently valued at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities [4] Paper Industry - As of August 8, 2025, the prices for various paper types are as follows: double glue paper at 4993.75 CNY/ton (unchanged), copper plate paper at 5320 CNY/ton (unchanged), white card paper at 3955 CNY/ton (down 35 CNY/ton), box board paper at 3463.4 CNY/ton (up 12.8 CNY/ton), and corrugated paper at 2582.5 CNY/ton (up 46.25 CNY/ton) [4][51] - The report notes that Suzano plans to reduce commodity pulp production by approximately 3.5% over the next year, which may further influence market prices [4][6] Consumer Goods - The launch of new health-focused sanitary products by brands like Pro indicates a shift towards higher quality and health-conscious consumer goods [6] - The report suggests that companies with strong IP strategies, such as Morning Glory, are likely to see improved performance in the coming quarters [6] Export Chain - In July, China's total exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN countries [6] - The report highlights the importance of companies with overseas supply chain capabilities in maintaining competitive advantages [6] Packaging - New regulations in Shanghai banning single-use plastic products are expected to drive demand for recyclable and biodegradable packaging solutions [6] - The report recommends companies involved in eco-friendly packaging, such as Hengxin Life and Jialian Technology, as potential investment opportunities [6] New Tobacco Products - The introduction of new electronic cigarette products in the UK is anticipated to boost market share for refillable devices [6] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the new tobacco sector that have strong partnerships and product offerings [6] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with notable increases in sales for major brands [6] - The report recommends monitoring leading companies in the apparel sector, such as Anta and Li Ning, for potential growth [6]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse deflation, with July's PPI down 3.6% year-on-year, continuing a downward trend. The strong correlation between PPI and coal prices suggests that coal prices need to stabilize. The lowest point for coal prices in 2024 may represent a policy bottom, with expectations for more supply-side policies to be introduced. Given the unclear demand-side changes, coal prices are expected to fluctuate upward amidst volatility, with a focus on high-quality core stocks as primary targets [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index rose by 3.65% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.41 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has dropped by 7.08%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 4.32%, indicating a significant underperformance of the coal index compared to the broader market [15][22]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators - As of August 8, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 682 CNY/ton, up 2.9% week-on-week, but down 19.4% year-on-year. The average daily output from 462 sample mines was 5.624 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 150,000 tons [3][27][33]. 2.2 Annual Contract Price - The annual contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 668 CNY/ton as of August 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [28]. 2.3 Spot Prices - Domestic prices for thermal coal showed mixed trends, with significant increases in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, while Shanxi saw a slight rise. The price for Inner Mongolia's high-quality coal reached 547.8 CNY/ton, up 5.6% week-on-week [33][40]. 2.4 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions was 80.1%, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased to 93.3 million tons, up 6.5% week-on-week [41][46]. 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators - As of August 8, 2025, the price for coking coal at the Jing Tang Port was 1610 CNY/ton, down 4.2% week-on-week. The average daily output from 523 sample mines was 755,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.79% from the previous week [80][81]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The price for coking coal in Henan rose significantly by 5.8% week-on-week to 1460 CNY/ton, while prices in Anhui also saw a notable increase [82][84].

Group 1 - The report highlights the establishment of the electricity spot market in Zhejiang, making it the seventh province in China to officially operate such a market, following Shanxi, Guangdong, Shandong, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Hubei [3][19][25] - The report indicates that the electricity spot market construction is accelerating nationwide, with a goal to achieve full coverage by the end of 2025, and continuous settlement operations are being implemented [3][19][20] - The report notes that the environmental protection sector, gas sector, electricity sector, and water sector saw respective increases of 3.66%, 3.61%, 1.05%, and 0.82% from August 4 to August 8, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.23% during the same period [2][12] Group 2 - The report discusses the broad application of hydrogen-based energy and its significant advantages in energy saving and carbon reduction, particularly in the context of decarbonization demands from the shipping and aviation industries [4][31] - It mentions that the National Energy Administration has announced nine pilot projects for green liquid fuel technology, with eight focusing on green methanol and green ammonia, indicating a growing trend in clean fuel development [4][26] - The report emphasizes that while the number of planned green hydrogen fuel projects has been increasing, challenges such as production costs and the maturity of downstream industries are hindering project development [4][31][32] Group 3 - The report recommends specific companies within various sectors, including Jiangsu Guoxin in the thermal power sector, and suggests cautious recommendations for Sheneng Co. and Zhejiang Energy Power [4] - In the nuclear power sector, it cautiously recommends China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power, while in the green energy sector, it suggests focusing on Three Gorges Energy and Jiangsu New Energy [4] - The report also highlights investment opportunities in the environmental protection sector, recommending Yongxing Co. and Xuedilong, while suggesting attention to Huaguang Huaneng and China Tianying [4]

Inflation Data Summary - July CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.0%, primarily due to weak food prices[3] - Core CPI improved for the third consecutive month, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, driven by higher gold prices and strong service consumption[3] - July PPI remained at a near 23-month low, with a year-on-year decline of -3.6%[3] Food Prices Impact - July food CPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month, significantly below seasonal levels by 0.9 percentage points[4] - Year-on-year food CPI dropped by 1.6%, influenced by a high base from the previous year[4] - Fresh vegetable and meat prices increased by 1.3% and 0.4% month-on-month, respectively, but were still below seasonal averages[4] Core CPI Drivers - Service prices remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with significant increases in travel-related costs: airfares up 17.9%, hotel stays up 6.9%[5] - Gold and platinum jewelry prices surged by 37.1% and 27.3% year-on-year, respectively, due to rising gold prices[5] - Transportation fuel prices saw a reduced decline of 1.8 percentage points to -9.0% year-on-year[5] PPI Trends - PPI's month-on-month decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting the impact of "anti-involution" measures[6] - International oil prices increased, contributing to a 3.0% rise in oil and gas extraction month-on-month[6] - Investment demand remains weak, limiting PPI recovery to a gradual improvement[6]

Core Conclusions - The speed of market rotation has significantly accelerated, with the rotation index dropping to 61.95% in 2025, and the duration of hot themes shortening, with most themes lasting less than or equal to 20 days [3][4] - The relationship between rotation speed and funding structure indicates that during accelerated rotation, financing balances are highly synchronized with the index, while during slower rotations, financing responses lag [3][14] - Based on the alpha158 factor, derived strategies were constructed for wind hot rotation, industry rotation, and hot index mapping leading stocks. The index rotation strategy achieved an annualized return of 20.25%, outperforming industry rotation at 16.03% [3][4] Industry Rotation Effective Factors - Quantile factors (QTLU/QTUD) are identified as effective for industry rotation, with support momentum (QTUD) being more effective in bear markets and resistance momentum (QTLU) in bull markets [3][4] - The proportion of positive volatility (SUMN) indicates stronger industry strength, while extreme value factors (RSV/MAX) are sensitive to hot themes [3][4] Hot Index Rotation Optimization - The analysis utilized 68 Wind hot indices, focusing on core factors such as quantile factors (QTLU_20_95) and residual ranking factors (RESI30, RANK20) which have shown high win rates in recent years [4][6] - The adjustment strategy involves T+1 closing for rebalancing to mitigate factor decay, with the top 5 components of hot indices yielding an annualized return of 15.79%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 [4][6] Strategy Application - For industry rotation holdings in 2025, high-frequency positions include banking, automotive, and non-ferrous metals, with recent additions in coal and basic chemicals [4][6] - Hot index holdings for July 2025 included semiconductor, lithium mining, and energy equipment, while automotive parts and liquor indices were removed [4][6] Market Rotation Dynamics - The analysis indicates that the speed of rotation is influenced by the structure of market participation funds, with rapid rotation correlating with high retail participation and financing balance synchronization [14][18] - In contrast, slower rotation reflects a dominance of institutional funds, leading to a significant lag in financing balances compared to index gains [14][18] Performance of Hot Rotation Strategies - The report suggests that in recent years of rapid hot rotation, short-term trend strategies are more likely to achieve excess returns [21][27] - The effectiveness of the index rotation has been higher than that of industry rotation in the past three years, indicating a shift in alpha generation from broader industry to more granular segments [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% in stock price compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [6][17]. Core Viewpoints - The company is leading the global progress with its product AK112, which is expected to capture the largest market share in the second-generation IO market [2][4]. - The broad-spectrum anti-cancer effects of PD-1 and VEGF targets are promising, with a significant existing market potential of nearly 60 billion USD globally [3]. - The company has already received approval for two indications of AK112 in China, making it the only PD-1/VEGF dual antibody product available globally [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 35.18 billion, 57.65 billion, and 93.72 billion CNY respectively, with net profits expected to be -1.86 billion, 8.03 billion, and 29.66 billion CNY [6][8]. - The estimated peak overseas sales for AK112, after risk adjustments, could reach approximately 197 billion USD [6]. - The report calculates a reasonable market value of 222.8 billion HKD based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 8.06% and a perpetual growth rate of 1% [6].

周期、制造多主题走出主升形态 团队成员 策 略 研 究 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 周期、制造多主题走出主升形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速 的主题指数数量分别有 0、3、25、0 只。其中，3 只突破形态的主题指数， 行业为有色金属、公用事业。25 只主升形态的主题指数，行业主要为机械 设备、电子、军工。 人形机器人、Deepseek 主题交易热度有所回暖，对应龙头股收盘价高 于 MA60 的位置。我们对人形机器人、Deepseek 主题进行交易热度的监控， 并且观察龙头股的调整程度。其中，人形机器人的交易热度回升至 80%， 长盛轴承的收盘价高于 MA60 ...

Group 1: UK Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of England (BoE) faced challenges in lowering interest rates due to rising inflation expectations, ultimately deciding to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.0% on August 7, 2025[3] - The BoE raised its food inflation forecast for Q3 2025 by 1.5 percentage points to 5.0%, expecting it to rise further to 5.5% by the end of 2025[3] - The nominal yield on 10-year UK government bonds increased by 323 basis points from February 1, 2022, to August 6, 2025, indicating a steepening yield curve[4] Group 2: US Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US is expected to impact global economies, with significant implications for non-US developed economies[5] - Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 0.7 thousand to 226 thousand, suggesting potential upward revisions in future employment data[5] - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, but strong consumer spending and non-residential investment contrast with the weak demand seen in the UK and other non-US developed economies[5] Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The recent tariffs imposed by the US range from 10% to 41%, affecting various trade partners, including China, and potentially leading to a restructuring of global supply chains[6] - The dollar index is expected to rebound after a temporary decline, which may put pressure on the Chinese yuan[6] - The report suggests that the People's Bank of China may consider a small rate cut of 10 basis points to stimulate demand in the real estate market[6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Risk Factor Exposure Regression for Fixed Income+ Funds - **Model Construction Idea**: The model regresses the net asset value (NAV) of Fixed Income+ funds against pure style factor returns of various asset classes to determine the risk exposure of these funds to different asset categories [4][19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The NAV of Fixed Income+ funds is regressed on the pure style factor returns of various asset classes, including bonds, stocks, and convertible bonds [4][19] 2. For bond assets, the model identifies changes in duration and credit strategy exposure by comparing the average risk factor exposure between the current and previous months [4][19] 3. For convertible bonds, the model calculates the exposure to parity risk factors and tracks changes in overall positioning [4][23] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the dynamic risk exposure of Fixed Income+ funds across different asset classes, providing insights into their allocation strategies [4][19] 2. Model Name: Fixed Income+ Fund Optimal Portfolio Construction - **Model Construction Idea**: The model selects 10 funds quarterly based on multiple dimensions such as win rate and odds, and allocates them equally to construct an optimal portfolio [5][26] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Quarterly selection of 10 funds based on criteria such as win rate and odds [5][26] 2. Equal-weight allocation of the selected funds to form the optimal portfolio [5][26] - **Model Evaluation**: The constructed portfolio demonstrates more stable performance compared to the secondary bond fund index, outperforming it by 0.36% in the current month [5][27] 3. Model Name: Pure Bond Fund Optimal Portfolio Construction - **Model Construction Idea**: The model selects funds with alpha characteristics within one standard deviation of market averages across various style exposures and allocates them equally to construct an optimal portfolio [7][45] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Identify funds with style exposures within one standard deviation of market averages [7][45] 2. Select 10 funds with high alpha characteristics on a quarterly basis [7][45] 3. Allocate the selected funds equally to form the optimal portfolio [7][45] - **Model Evaluation**: The portfolio outperformed the mid-to-long-term pure bond fund index by 0.16% year-to-date, demonstrating its effectiveness in generating excess returns [7][46] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Bond Risk Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factors include duration, slope, convexity, credit, and default, which are used to measure the risk exposure of pure bond funds [6][42] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Regress the NAV of pure bond funds on the five factors: duration, slope, convexity, credit, and default [6][42] 2. Analyze the mean changes in factor exposures between the current and previous months [6][42] 3. Assess the dispersion of factor exposures to evaluate consistency in fund strategies [6][42] - **Factor Evaluation**: The analysis reveals a significant increase in credit exposure and a decrease in convexity exposure, with low dispersion in credit exposure, indicating consistent adoption of credit strategies among funds [6][42] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Risk Factor Exposure Regression for Fixed Income+ Funds - No specific numerical backtesting results provided 2. Fixed Income+ Fund Optimal Portfolio Construction - Outperformed the secondary bond fund index by 0.36% in the current month [5][27] 3. Pure Bond Fund Optimal Portfolio Construction - Outperformed the mid-to-long-term pure bond fund index by 0.16% year-to-date [7][46] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Bond Risk Factors - Credit exposure increased significantly, while convexity exposure decreased [6][42] - Low standard deviation in credit exposure indicates consistent strategy adoption [6][42]

Export Performance - In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up 1.4 percentage points from June, continuing the improvement trend since May[1] - Exports to ASEAN rose by 16.6% year-on-year, while exports to South Korea increased by 4.6%, marking a significant recovery[2] - Exports to the US saw a decline of 21.7%, deepening by 5.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a stronger impact from tariffs[2] Import Trends - Imports in July rose by 4.1% year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3.0 percentage points, driven primarily by recovering crude oil prices[1] - The trade surplus narrowed slightly to $98.24 billion in July, reflecting the dynamics of both exports and imports[1] - The contribution of processing trade intermediate goods and capital goods imports fell by 0.6 percentage points, indicating a cooling in these sectors[5] Market Outlook - The extension of the tariff relief period by the US is expected to marginally boost exports of electromechanical products and mid-range consumer goods[6] - The imposition of 15% tariffs on other major trading partners may enhance China's export price competitiveness but could also weaken demand from these economies[6] - The semiconductor and machinery sectors may face challenges due to increased tariffs on key supply chain partners like Mexico and Vietnam[6]