Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, highlighting strong performance in various sub-sectors and suggesting potential investment opportunities in specific companies [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The restructuring of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and China Aviation Oil (China National Aviation Fuel) is a significant development, marking the first major state-owned enterprise restructuring in 2026, which is expected to enhance the production and application of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [3]. - The domestic urea market has shown signs of recovery, with prices rising to over 1700 RMB per ton, a 9% increase from the lowest point in October 2025, driven by steady demand and reduced supply [3][4]. - The report identifies several investment themes, including the competitiveness of domestic tire manufacturers, the potential recovery in consumer electronics, and the resilience of certain cyclical industries [4][5][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, the ChiNext Index by 3.89%, and the CSI 300 Index by 2.79%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 5.39%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index by 5.03% [13][16]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included rubber additives (17.27%), electronic chemicals (15.08%), and modified plastics (9.87%) [16]. Key Industry Dynamics - Sinopec and China Aviation Oil's restructuring aims to streamline operations and enhance the production of SAF, positioning the companies for future growth in a low-carbon economy [3]. - The urea market is expected to continue its upward trend, with a forecast for moderate price increases in the near future due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [3][4]. Investment Themes - **Tire Industry**: Domestic tire manufacturers are becoming increasingly competitive, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Tire, and Linglong Tire [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery in consumer electronics is anticipated, with upstream material companies expected to benefit. Recommended stocks include Dongcai Technology, Stik, Lite-On Optoelectronics, and Ruian New Materials [4]. - **Cyclical Industries**: Focus on industries with strong resilience and inventory destocking, particularly in phosphate and fluorine chemicals, as well as polyester filament [5][7]. - **Vitamin Supply**: Attention is drawn to vitamin products due to supply disruptions from BASF, which may lead to market imbalances [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - In January, international pulp prices increased, with Arauco softwood pulp rising by $10 to $710 per ton and hardwood pulp by $20 to $590 per ton, providing cost support and potential stabilization in paper prices [3][5] - The report highlights the upcoming announcement from the U.S. regarding the tariff decision related to Trump's global tariff measures, which could impact the export chain [3][5] - E-commerce performance in December for personal care products showed overall weakness, with some emerging brands maintaining rapid growth [3] Summary by Sections Export Chain - The U.S. is expected to announce the tariff decision next week, with a predicted 28% chance of supporting current tariffs. If rejected, tariffs imposed in 2025 may be lifted [5] - The postponement of tariffs on upholstered furniture and cabinets until 2027 may alleviate CPI increases in the U.S. and support demand recovery [5] - Companies like Dream Lily and Fashion Bed Group are expanding into the Canadian market, while Zhongxin Co. plans to establish a factory in the U.S. to enhance global competitiveness [5] Home Furnishing - The furniture manufacturing industry's revenue from January to November 2025 decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, with a widening decline in residential sales [5] - IKEA announced the closure of several stores in China while shifting focus to smaller stores and online channels [5] - The report suggests that despite the ongoing adjustment period in the home furnishing and real estate sectors, valuations are at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities [5] Paper and Packaging - As of January 9, 2026, prices for various paper types showed mixed trends, with some prices remaining stable while others decreased [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong production capacity and fiber supply, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International [5] Consumer Goods - Sales growth for sanitary napkins on major e-commerce platforms showed a decline, while some brands on Douyin experienced rapid growth [5] - The report highlights strategic collaborations and product launches by companies like Morning Glory and the potential for recovery in the stationery sector [5] New Tobacco Products - New regulations regarding non-combustible nicotine products will take effect in April 2026, indicating a shift towards a more concentrated market structure [5] - Companies like Smoore International are expected to benefit from the global rollout of their products [5] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with a reported increase in net profit for companies like Bailong Oriental, driven by strong order volumes [5]

行 业 研 医药生物 2026 年 01 月 11 日 医药生物 究 医药科技开门红，小核酸 FXIa 即将催化（建议 关注瑞博、靖因） 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 行情回顾：本周（2026 年 1 月 5 日- 2026 年 1 月 9 日）中信医药指数上涨 7.7%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.9 pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 5 位；2026 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 7.7%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.9 pct，在中 信行业分类中排名第 5 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：创新医疗（+61.0%）、三 博脑科（+56.2%）、美好医疗（+56.1%）、前沿生物（+56.0%）、悦康药业 （+40.6%）。 FXIa 抑制剂即将迎来催化，小核酸方向建议关注瑞博、靖因：血栓性 疾病全球每年发病人群高达 2670 万，目前针对血栓性疾病的抗凝药物主要 包括华法林、肝素和直接口服剂，全球抗凝血药物市场预计在 2024 年高达 330 亿美金。但是现有抗凝血药物的作用是非选择性的，既影响凝血的内 源性途径，也影响外源性途径以及共同下游途径，这种治疗方法不可避免 地会损害正常应对损伤的止血反应 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the upcoming sales peak for gold and jewelry during the Spring Festival, with promotional activities already initiated by major brands, indicating a potential boost in sales due to the combined effect of Valentine's Day and the Spring Festival [11][12] - The gold price has been steadily increasing since 2026, which is favorable for terminal sales in the gold and jewelry sector, as consumers tend to buy when prices are rising gradually rather than experiencing sharp fluctuations [11][12] - Major brands are offering significant discounts and promotional activities to attract consumers, which is crucial for achieving strong sales during this peak season [12] Group 2 - The home appliance sector has seen a weekly increase of 2.2%, with specific segments like kitchen appliances and small appliances showing even higher growth rates of 3.1% and 1.8% respectively [17] - Raw material prices have risen, with LME copper and aluminum increasing by 3.89% and 6.5% respectively, which could impact the cost structure of home appliance manufacturers [17] - The textile and apparel sector also experienced a weekly increase of 2.65%, with cotton prices rising by 2.21%, indicating a positive trend in the textile market [21]

Fixed Income - The report indicates that credit spreads have narrowed across the board, demonstrating resilience in credit despite rising interest rates. During the week from January 4 to January 9, government bond yields generally increased, with 1Y, 3Y, and 10Y government bonds rising by 3 basis points (BP), while the 5Y bond rose by 4 BP and the 7Y bond by 2 BP. In contrast, credit bonds outperformed government bonds, with 1Y AA+ and above credit bond yields decreasing by 2 BP, while other grades increased by 1 BP. For 3Y AAA and AA grades, yields remained stable, while other grades decreased by 1-2 BP. The 5Y AA+ and above grades saw yields rise by 1 BP, while other grades increased by 3 BP. The 7Y AAA grade yields remained stable, while other grades decreased by 2 BP. The 10Y AAA credit bonds decreased by 1 BP, with other grades remaining stable. Overall, credit spreads narrowed, with 1Y AA+ and above credit spreads decreasing by 5 BP, and other grades down by 2 BP. For 3Y, spreads decreased by 3-5 BP across grades, while for 5Y, AA+ and above spreads decreased by 3 BP, and other grades down by 1 BP. The 7Y AAA grade spreads decreased by 2 BP, with other grades down by 4 BP, and for 10Y, spreads decreased by 3-4 BP across grades [3][9][20]. City Investment Bonds - The report notes that city investment bond spreads mostly decreased by 3-4 BP. The overall credit spread for AAA-rated platforms decreased by 3 BP, while AA and AA+ platforms saw a 4 BP decrease. By administrative level, provincial platform credit spreads generally decreased by 3 BP, while city and county-level platform spreads decreased by 4 BP. Specifically, AAA-rated spreads mostly decreased by 3-4 BP, with Inner Mongolia down by 2 BP, and Yunnan, Hainan, and Gansu down by 5-6 BP. AA+ rated platforms mostly saw decreases of 3-5 BP, with Xinjiang and Guizhou down by 1-2 BP, and Ningxia and Gansu down by 6-7 BP. AA-rated platforms mostly decreased by 4-5 BP, with Shaanxi down by 3 BP and Tianjin down by 6 BP [4][13][16]. Industry Bonds - The report highlights that while most industry bond spreads decreased, real estate bond spreads continued to widen. Specifically, the spreads for central state-owned enterprise real estate bonds widened slightly by 1-3 BP, while mixed-ownership real estate bonds saw a significant increase of 702 BP. In contrast, private enterprise real estate bond spreads decreased by 30 BP. Notable changes include Longfor's spread decreasing by 6 BP, CIFI's increasing by 55 BP, Vanke's decreasing by 974 BP, Midea's decreasing by 4 BP, Huafa's increasing by 17 BP, and Poly's increasing by 5 BP. Additionally, spreads for coal bonds decreased by 2-3 BP across grades, while steel and chemical bonds saw a decrease of 3 BP [20][21]. Perpetual Bonds - The report indicates that the spreads for secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds have significantly narrowed, with yields for 1Y secondary capital bonds decreasing by 2-3 BP and perpetual bonds down by 3-4 BP, compressing spreads by 5-6 BP. For 3Y, AA+ and above secondary bonds saw yields decrease by 1 BP, while AA secondary bonds and all grades of perpetual bonds saw yields decrease by 1-2 BP, compressing spreads by 4-5 BP. In the 5Y category, AAA- secondary capital bond yields increased by 1 BP, AA+ remained stable, and AA decreased by 1 BP, with perpetual bond yields remaining stable and spreads compressing by 3-5 BP [5][25]. Excess Spreads - The report notes that the excess spread for industry AAA-rated 3Y perpetual bonds remained stable at 14.84 BP, positioned at the 40.79% percentile since 2015. The 5Y perpetual bond excess spread slightly decreased by 0.01 BP to 13.20 BP, at the 32.21% percentile. Conversely, the excess spread for city investment AAA-rated 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 1.93 BP to 4.64 BP, at the 3.74% percentile, while the 5Y excess spread increased by 1.52 BP to 10.92 BP, at the 18.64% percentile [27][28].

行 业 研 究 4022 煤炭 2026 年 01 月 10 日 供给再迎收紧，煤价反弹进行时 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 699 元/吨， 周环比+17 元/吨，内蒙产地价持平、山西产地价持平、陕西产地价小 涨。截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 545.2 万 吨，环比+49.4 万吨，年同比-7.1%。本周电厂日耗小涨，电厂库存小 跌，秦港库存大跌，截至 1 月 5 日，动力煤库存指数为 187.6（-12.6）。 非电方面，甲醇、尿素开工率分别为 91.4%（+1.1pct）和 83.2%（+2.9pct）， 仍处于历史同期偏高水平。 焦煤 截至 1 月 9 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1620 元/吨，周环比持平，山 西、河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 1 月 9 日，523 家样本矿山精煤日 均产量 73.4 万吨（+4.4 万吨），年同比-8.6%，523 家精煤库存 295 万 吨（+1.7 万吨），年同比-28.3%；截止 1 月 9 日，日均铁水产量 229.6 万吨（+2. ...

Employment Data - December non-farm employment increased by 50,000, below the expected 65,000, indicating a continued slowdown in job growth[3] - Private sector jobs added 37,000 in December, with an average of 43,000 jobs added in November and December, down from 57,000 in Q3[3] - Traditional service industries contributed the most to job growth, with leisure and hospitality adding 47,000 and education and healthcare adding 41,000 jobs respectively[11] Unemployment Trends - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with the previous value revised down to 4.5%[4] - Labor force participation rate decreased to 62.4%, indicating a potential tightening in the labor market[4] - The U6 unemployment rate also dropped by 0.3 percentage points to 8.4%, but remains at a high level since 2022, suggesting challenges for marginal workers[15] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-on-month in December, matching expectations, while year-on-year growth rose to 3.8%, above the expected 3.6%[20] - Wage growth has shown resilience, maintaining a range of 3.6%-3.9% since the second half of 2026[20] - Retail and financial sectors saw the highest year-on-year wage growth at 4.8% and 4.7% respectively, while transportation and healthcare lagged behind[26] Market Expectations - Following the December non-farm data, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in January dropped to 5%, with a 73.4% chance of at least one cut by June[5] - The stock market indices continued to rise, and the dollar index increased, while gold prices surpassed $4,500 per ounce, indicating a "shoe dropping" market reaction[5] - The labor market's oversupply situation is becoming more evident, with job openings falling to 7.146 million, the lowest since 2021, and the labor supply-demand gap widening to -635,000[17]

- The report discusses the performance of major stock index futures, including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, highlighting that the trading volume stabilized in December 2025 after a decline since September 2025, reflecting a decrease in market activity[12][18][22] - The basis (futures price relative to the underlying index) for the next month's contracts of major indices was tracked, showing that the discount levels remained low, with SSE 50 and CSI 300 having minimal discounts, while CSI 500 and CSI 1000 exhibited some discount levels[15][22][28] - The structure of stock index futures basis indicates market expectations for future trends, where a premium suggests bullish sentiment, and a discount may indicate pessimism or liquidity concerns. In December 2025, the average discount narrowed compared to the previous month, reflecting a neutral to slightly positive sentiment among investors[23][28] - The performance of Chinese government bond futures was analyzed, with the 10-year contract (T) and the 30-year contract (TL) showing a decline in December 2025, with TL down by 2.69% and T down by 0.07%. This suggests that bond futures are expected to remain stable with slight fluctuations in the near term[36][39][49] - The implied yield of the 10-year government bond futures was 1.76% as of December 31, 2025, lower than the spot yield of 1.85%, indicating optimistic sentiment in the bond market[39][49] - The structure of government bond futures basis was discussed, where a premium indicates expectations of declining interest rates (rising bond prices), and a discount suggests expectations of rising interest rates (falling bond prices). In December 2025, the basis for 10-year government bond futures fluctuated around zero, reflecting neutral sentiment among investors[43][49] - The VIX (volatility index) of major options markets was analyzed, showing that the 1000 Index options had slightly lower implied volatility compared to the actual volatility of the underlying, while the 300ETF options' implied volatility was consistent with the actual volatility, suggesting that options were reasonably priced or undervalued[52][60][62] - The Put/Call Ratio (PCR) for options, a measure of market sentiment, showed a decline in December 2025 for both 300ETF and 50ETF options, indicating cautious sentiment in the market[64][66][70]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - Strong Brain Technology has completed approximately 2 billion yuan in financing, making it the second-largest in the global brain-computer interface (BCI) sector, following Neuralink. This financing round was led by IDG Capital and Huaden International, with participation from industry chain companies, enabling product scaling through a "capital + manufacturing" model [4][6]. - The company focuses on non-invasive technology, with its core product, the "Super Sensor," capable of capturing brain electrical signals without the need for surgery. This technology has already assisted individuals with disabilities in performing complex movements, with plans to help one million disabled individuals regain mobility and assist ten million patients in rehabilitation over the next 5-10 years [4][6]. - Neuralink, a key player in the BCI field, is set to initiate large-scale production of BCI devices in 2026 and is advancing fully automated surgical solutions. This invasive technology complements Strong Brain Technology's non-invasive approach, collectively driving the commercialization of global BCI technology [5][6]. - The global BCI market is projected to grow rapidly, with an estimated market size of approximately 2.62 billion USD in 2024, expected to reach 2.94 billion USD in 2025, and potentially grow to 12.4 billion USD by 2034, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.35% over the next decade. In China, the BCI market is anticipated to reach 3.2 billion yuan in 2024 and 6.14 billion yuan by 2028 [6]. Summary by Sections Financing and Market Position - Strong Brain Technology has secured around 2 billion yuan in financing, ranking second globally in the BCI sector, just behind Neuralink [4]. - The financing round was led by IDG Capital and Huaden International, with contributions from various industry chain companies [4]. Technology and Product Development - The company's non-invasive "Super Sensor" technology captures brain signals without surgery, aiding individuals with disabilities [4]. - Plans are in place to assist one million disabled individuals and ten million patients in rehabilitation over the next 5-10 years [4]. Market Growth Projections - The global BCI market is expected to grow from 2.62 billion USD in 2024 to 12.4 billion USD by 2034, with a CAGR of 17.35% [6]. - The Chinese BCI market is projected to grow from 3.2 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.14 billion yuan by 2028 [6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the world's first chain-type dexterous hand, "CHOHO Hand," by Zhenghe Industrial, which integrates advanced chain transmission technology with biomimetic and intelligent control technologies, marking a significant leap from "manufacturing" to "intelligent manufacturing" [4][5]. - The dexterous hand boasts eight core advantages, including high load capacity (over 40 kg), high resistance (up to 400N), high reliability, high durability (over 1 million cycles), high precision (±0.1mm), high energy efficiency (95%-98%), low weight (715g), and low maintenance costs [4]. - The global market for dexterous hands in robotics is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 110% over the next five years, with the introduction of the "CHOHO Hand" expected to fill a gap in the chain transmission dexterous hand sector and drive China's robotics core components from a "follower" to a "leader" position [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the significant technological breakthroughs in dexterous hand technology and its implications for the robotics industry, emphasizing the transition towards intelligent manufacturing [3][4]. Market Potential - The Chinese humanoid robot market is projected to reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR exceeding 61% from 2024 to 2030, indicating a substantial increase in sales from approximately 4,000 units to 271,200 units [5]. Strategic Collaborations - Zhenghe Industrial has signed strategic cooperation agreements with multiple companies and research institutions to enhance the capabilities of the dexterous hand, indicating a strong push towards industrial collaboration and market penetration [5].