华福证券 生猪养殖：供应压力仍存，冬至猪价承压。1）上周猪价震荡下行。供 应端，二育散户出栏积极性较强，同时受 1 月春节影响，出栏有所前置， 生猪供应整体充裕。需求端，冬至前消费持续回暖。供应增幅大于消费增 幅，猪价承压，12 月 22 日猪价 15.25 元/公斤，周环比-0.70 元/公斤。截至 12 月 10 日，17 省份育肥栏舍利用率均值为 31.92%，较前十日降低 7.06pct。 进入 12 月二育出栏意愿增强，栏舍利用率持续下降。2）腌腊灌肠进入高 峰，屠宰量明显增长。上周正值冬至前腌腊、灌肠备货小高峰，南北多地 屠企订单提升，支撑屠企屠宰量增加。12 月 14 日-12 月 20 日屠企日均宰 量 19.51 万头，周环比+9.56%。部分市场冻品走货顺畅，下游接货积极， 上周冻品库存率 15.01%，周环比-0.55pct。3）大猪出栏占比提升，均重继 续上行。冬至前二育散户出栏积极性增强，市场大猪出栏增加，行业均重 上行。12 月 13 日-12 月 19 日 150kg 以上生猪出栏占比 8.63%，周环比 +0.38pct，生猪交易均重 130.68 公斤，周环比+0.41 公斤 ...

股债收益差上升，市场情绪收敛。（1）市场估值：股债收益差上升至 1.5%，位于+1 标准差、+2 标准差之间。估值分化系数有所下降。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪收敛，行业轮动强度下降。市场大盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑输市场，主题热度主要聚集在光模块(CPO)、ASIC 芯片、光通信。 （3）市场结构：市场量能环比下降，通信、电子、银行多头个股占比居前， 美容护理、社会服务、商贸零售内部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本周 陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周下降 506 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平均 成交笔数较上周下降 202 万笔。陆股通成交额排名前三的标的为宁德时代、 北方华创、贵州茅台，近 5 日涨幅分别为-1.6%、7.2%、1.8%。杠杆资金净 流入 0.1 亿元，主要流入行业为电子、通信、医药生物。ETF 资金更多表 现为对冲流出资金的托底作用。主要指数 ETF 变动-2 亿份，其中 A50、创 业板 ETF、创板 50 更受青睐。本周新成立偏股型基金份额日均 10 亿份， 同比下降 7%，本周同比值较上周同比值下降 92%。 | --- | |-------------------------------- ...

图表 7: Wind 概念可降解塑料指数 Wind 行业定期报告 | 基础化工 随着全球各行各业争先恐后地寻找替代来源，预计价格将进一步上涨。 图表 10:赞城半导体指数 费城半导体指数 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2024-02 2018-02 来源: Wind,华福证券研究所 9 华福证券 行业定期报告 | 基础化工 《行动方案》指出，加强新材料产品标准培育，坚持应用牵引，围绕生物医药、 船舶及海洋工程、新能源等重点领域，加快推动一批创新成果转化成关键战略材料 标准。聚焦前沿材料产业化重点发展指导目录，利用国内超大规模市场条件下制定 标准技术响应速度快、标准研制效率高等优势，开展前沿新材料标准研制。（资料 来源：DT 新材料） 诚信专业 发现价值 8 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 来源： Wind，华福证券研究所 华福证券 投资者应注意，在法律许可的情况下，本公司及其本公司的关联机构可能会持有本报告中涉及的公司所发行的证券并进行交易，也 可能为这些公司正在提供或争取提供投资银行、财务顾问和金融产品等各种金融服务。投资者请勿将本报告视为投资或其他决定的 唯一参考依据 ...

华福证券 海外市场周观察（1216-1222） 美联储降息路径生变 投资要点： 策略定期研究 2024 年 12 月 23 日 团队成员 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------------| | | | | 相关报告 | | | 《降息预期的微妙变化》 | | | 2024/12/15 | | | 《美股历史新高背后的经济博弈》 | | | 2024/12/9 | | | 《在混沌中寻找秩序—— | 2025 年度 | | 策略系列报告"碧海潮生，日出东 | | | 方"》 | | | 2024/12/6 | | 本周美联储如期降息，而美股大幅调整。本周美联储议息会议宣布将基 准利率下调25BP至4.25%—4.50%区间，点阵图显示，明年降息幅度预测从4 次调整为2次，美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的讲话中表示，若通胀不能持续地向 2%移动，则降息步伐会更慢，声明公布至鲍威尔讲话期间，黄金单边大幅下 挫，美元指数自决议公布以来累涨110点，创两年新高，美债2Y上涨15BP。 本周美国三大股指均收跌，一方面由于联储官员的鹰派发言和点阵图显示的 F ...

Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Views - The integration of Apple's ecosystem with domestic large models is key to the landing of AI phones in China [1] - Apple's AI features require local partners to address technical and regulatory challenges for successful implementation in China [1] - Apple is in talks with Tencent and ByteDance to integrate their AI models into iPhones sold in China, which could accelerate the localization of Apple's AI features [1][75] - The successful integration of domestic large models into Apple's ecosystem and the smooth landing of localized iPhone AI experiences are expected to boost Apple's sales in China and create growth opportunities for related industry chains [1] Market Performance - The electronics sector rose by 0.22% this week, ranking second among all industries [29] - The semiconductor sub-sector saw the largest increase, up 5.40%, while electronic chemicals had the smallest increase, up 0.43% [11] - Notable stock performers in the SW electronics sector include Mingyang Circuit (up 26.19%) and Fullhan Microelectronics (up 25.16%), while Guanghua Technology (down 15.51%) and *ST Meixun (down 12.72%) were among the biggest decliners [12] Valuation Analysis - The overall PE (TTM) of the electronics industry this week was 57.14x, slightly higher than the previous week [16] - Sub-sector valuations: consumer electronics (31.05x), electronic chemicals (59.06x), components (39.25x), other electronics (62.89x), optoelectronics (58.43x), and semiconductors (92.96x) [18] Industry Dynamics - Micron announced progress on its next-generation HBM4 and HBM4E processes, with HBM4 expected to enter mass production in 2026 [20] - TSMC's Kumamoto factory in Japan is set to begin mass production this year, using 22/28nm and 12/16nm process technologies [21][58] - Apple is in early discussions with Tencent and ByteDance to integrate their AI models into iPhones sold in China [59] - Huawei led the global wearable device market in the first three quarters of 2024, with a 44.3% year-on-year increase in shipments [60] - India's PC and tablet market is expected to grow by 17% in 2024, driven by strong demand in the education sector [61][62] - Global AR/VR headset shipments grew by 12.8% in Q3 2024, with Meta maintaining a 70.8% market share [63][64] - AMOLED panels are projected to account for 43% of display panel market revenue by 2028, up from 34% in 2022 [66] - Samsung Display plans to continue selling its 8th-generation LCD equipment as it shifts focus to OLED production [67][69] - OLED laptop penetration is expected to exceed 5% by 2027, driven by Apple's adoption of OLED technology in MacBooks [71][72] Company Dynamics - Notable shareholder changes include Guoxin Technology (reducing holdings by 0.58%) and Laite Optoelectronics (reducing holdings by 2.00%) [53] - Mingyang Circuit saw significant shareholder reductions, with multiple entities reducing their stakes [90]

继续演绎。铜，供给端，本周铜精矿现货TC持稳处于低位，矿山新增 产能有限与冶炼产能扩张的矛盾仍在继续演绎，多家矿企确定2025年 铜精矿长单TC/RC分别为21.25美元/吨和2.125美分/磅。需求端，临近 年底，多数精铜杆厂在手订单较为充足但新增订单减少，且年底或转 向回款和安排检修。全球铜库存52.44万吨，环比-3.22万吨，同比 26.27万吨。我们认为，美联储降息方向确定，铜供需紧平衡对铜价构 成强支撑；中长期，随美联储降息加深提振投资和消费，同时打开国 内货币政策空间，叠加美国大选后宽货币宽财政带来的通胀反弹将支 撑铜价中枢上移。个股：铜矿推荐紫金矿业、洛阳钼业，小而优关注 铜陵有色、西部矿业、金诚信，其他关注河钢股份、藏格矿业等；电 解铝推荐中国铝业、中国宏桥，关注天山铝业、南山铝业、云铝股 份、神火股份等；锡建议关注锡业股份、兴业银锡、华锡有色。 ➢ 新能源金属：锂，24全年过剩局面未改，旺季虽然反弹但高度有 限，仍需通过锂价超跌实现供需再平衡；中长期看，锂矿为电动车产 业链最优质且弹性大的标的，关注股票和锂价双底部战略性布局机 会。稀土，商家情绪极度悲观，年关将至开始大跌属于经营策略上变 ...

Core Views - The rise of China's AI industry may reshape global perceptions of the US tech system, potentially suppressing dollar financing and impacting the existing pricing system [2] - Rapidly rising US real interest rates may reflect intensifying stagflation pressures, increasing the risk of economic downturn [2] - US PCE data indicates potential downward pressure in the services sector, while durable goods manufacturing remains strong [2] - US stocks face dual pressures from stagflation and the rise of China's AI applications, further exacerbating risks [2] - Trump's potential implementation of domestic circulation policies could maintain high US real interest rates in a stagflation scenario, mitigating economic downturn risks [2] - Mid-term optimism for gold, autonomous and controllable leaders, cyclical core assets, state-owned enterprises, and AI applications Long-term optimism for state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road initiative, new consumption, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech O2O, semiconductor equipment, military, and traditional manufacturing leaders [2] Market Review and Style Shift - Broad-based indices showed mixed performance, with the STAR 50 and SSE 50 indices gaining [38] - The technology sector outperformed, while consumer and cyclical sectors saw deeper declines [21] - Market style may be entering a transition window, with high-beta, large-cap, and institutionally heavy stocks showing smaller declines [40] - Foreign investors' futures positions diverged, with IC, IM, and IH net short positions narrowing, while IF net short positions widened [64] Industry Performance - Technology sector led gains, with semiconductors, communication equipment, and components outperforming [73] - Fisheries, entertainment goods, and hotel catering sectors underperformed [73] - Hard tech sectors such as semiconductors and communication equipment led in relative outperformance against the SSE Index [73] Economic Data and Forecasts - The Fed reduced its 2025 rate cut expectations from four to two, citing persistent inflation pressures [15] - US PCE inflation in November was weaker than expected, with core goods inflation rising and core services inflation slowing [32] - US real consumption growth weakened, with core goods consumption stronger than core services consumption [92] - Fed's economic data forecasts show improved expectations for 2025 US economy, with stronger inflation expectations [15] Next Week's Focus - Key data to watch include US Federal Reserve bank reserve balances and China's industrial enterprise profits [77] Sector and Asset Allocation - Mid-term focus on gold, autonomous and controllable leaders, cyclical core assets, state-owned enterprises, and AI applications [2] - Long-term focus on state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road initiative, new consumption, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech O2O, semiconductor equipment, military, and traditional manufacturing leaders [2]

投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 数字：CPU/GPU——本周海光信息+5.9%，龙芯中科-7.4%，寒武纪+19%。 18 日字节跳动豆包大模型全面升级，利好国产算力公司。据路透 19 日消 息，据《信息时报》19 日报导，美国商务部最近要求 NvidiaNVDA.O 调查 过去一年该公司的产品是如何被走私到中国的，报导援引一位接近商务部 的人士的话说，商务部要求超微电脑 SMCI.O 和戴尔科技 DELL.N 等分销 商对东南亚客户进行抽查。SoC——除炬芯科技-0.2%，其余标的股价均上 涨，其中乐鑫科技+23%，瑞芯微+21%，翱捷科技+15.7%。近期，OpenAI 在其官方 GitHub 仓库中发布了一个可在以 ESP32 为代表的微控制器上使 用 Open Realtime API 的 SDK，该项目已在 ESP32-S3 和 Linux 上开发并测 试，开发者可以直接按照指引使用；乐鑫科技表示将 OpenAI 的前沿 AI 能 力集成到基于乐鑫芯片的项目中。瑞芯微连日涨停，17 日在互动平台表示， 公司已有 SoC 芯片应用在多种形态的机器人上，并在机器人领域已有一定 的市场份额。 诚信 ...

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary Tabl e_First|Tabl e_R eportD ate 电力设备及新能源 2024 年 12 月 22 日 电力设备及新能源行业周报 产业周跟踪：江苏海风竞配超预期，关注 AI 电 强于大市(维持评级) 投资要点： 新增装机有望超250GW。1-11月国内光伏新增装机206.3GW，累计同比 +25.9%，其中11月国内光伏新增装机25GW，同比+17.3%，环比+22.4%，装 机数据表现优秀。我们认为，随着年底部分项目抢装，24年国内光伏新增 装机有望超250GW，25年国内装机规模仍能保持相当水平。 证，建议重视当下布局机会。1）江苏启动7.65GW海上风电竞配：配储10% 团队成员 及以上、2h，鼓励民营企业参与；2）辽宁2024海上风电建设意见征求： 启动省管7GW竞配；3）华能山东半岛北L场址海上风电项目开工。 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Author 分析师 邓伟 执业证书编号：S0210522050005 邮箱： dw3787@hfzq.com.cn ...