Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on high dividend assets in the coal and highway sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for these industries due to their stable cash flows and defensive characteristics [2][12]. Core Insights - The coal industry is highlighted as a high dividend sector with significant cash flow improvements due to supply constraints and long-term contract policies, making leading companies particularly attractive for investment [4][45]. - The highway sector is characterized by stable cash flows and nearing completion of expansion projects, which will enhance future cash flow releases, thus making these companies appealing for dividends [4][50]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the importance of the stock-bond yield spread, noting that high dividend assets are increasingly valued in a low-interest-rate environment, with bank wealth management products yielding between 1.8%-3.2% and 10-year government bonds yielding 1.6%-1.9% [2][12]. Excess Returns and Stock Price Influences - Coal sector excess returns are closely tied to coal prices, suggesting that investments in coal dividend assets are advisable during periods of rising coal prices and positive stock-bond yield spreads [3][39]. - The highway sector's excess returns are more sensitive to market downturns and bond yield changes, indicating that investments in highway dividend assets are preferable during market declines [3][42]. High Dividend Drivers - In the coal sector, high dividends are driven by supply constraints and improved cash flows from long-term contracts, with leading companies benefiting from higher industry concentration and robust financial health [4][45]. - For the highway sector, high dividends stem from stable cash flows and the completion of expansion projects, which will allow for increased shareholder returns [4][50]. Company-Specific Recommendations - In the coal industry, companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are recommended for their high dividend levels and strong market positions, while Yanzhou Coal is noted for its growth potential alongside high dividends [5][56]. - In the highway sector, companies like Shandong Highway and Anhui Expressway are highlighted for their nearing completion of expansion projects and high dividend levels, with China Merchants Highway recognized for its strong cash flow and profitability [5][60].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for coal investments, emphasizing the potential for price stabilization and upward movement in the coal market [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Producer Price Index (PPI) is closely linked to coal prices, with expectations for coal prices to stabilize and potentially rise due to policy changes aimed at reducing "involution" competition [5]. - The coal industry is positioned within an energy transformation era, with limited supply elasticity due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [5]. - Despite macroeconomic weaknesses affecting demand, the rigid supply and rising costs are expected to support coal prices, maintaining a fluctuating upward trend [5]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of November 28, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 816 CNY/ton, down 18 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 4 CNY/ton [3][30]. - Daily average production from 462 sample mines is 5.5 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.8 thousand tons week-on-week and a 6.8% year-on-year decline [3][37]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a small decline in daily coal consumption at major power plants, with inventories showing a slight increase, indicating a stable supply-demand balance [39]. - Methanol and urea operating rates are reported at 89.1% and 83.7%, respectively, indicating robust industrial activity [3][44]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities based on resource endowment, operational stability, and potential for dividend increases, recommending companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical [6]. - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from a bottoming coal price cycle are also highlighted, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6]. Price Trends - The report indicates that the long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 684 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 8.0 CNY/ton month-on-month but a decrease of 15.0 CNY/ton year-on-year [26]. - The report also notes fluctuations in international coal prices, with Newcastle coal prices rising to 113.8 USD/ton, a week-on-week increase of 4.7 USD/ton [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The six ministries issued a document to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, aiming for a significant optimization of the supply structure by 2027, with the formation of three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [12][2] - The document emphasizes innovation in new technologies and models, including electric vehicles, smart home appliances, and customized services, while highlighting the role of artificial intelligence in upgrading the consumer goods sector [13][14] - There is a focus on expanding the supply of specialty and new products, particularly in areas such as green low-carbon products, rural consumption, health foods, and traditional cultural products [15][18] - The report details the need for precise matching of consumer needs across different demographics, including infants, students, trendy consumers, and the elderly [20][23] - It encourages the cultivation of new consumption scenarios and business formats, supporting the launch of new consumer products and the use of AI to analyze user needs [24] Summary by Sections New Technology and Model Innovation - The document outlines new tracks and models, focusing on smart connected electric vehicles, smart home appliances, and flexible production [13] - It promotes the establishment of flexible manufacturing factories in various sectors, including home appliances and textiles [14] Expansion of Specialty and New Product Supply - The report highlights the need for green product expansion and the development of high-efficiency appliances suitable for rural environments [15][18] - It supports the development of health products and encourages the consumption of organic and geographical indication products [19] Precise Matching of Consumer Needs - The report emphasizes the importance of developing products tailored for specific demographics, such as infants and the elderly [20][23] Cultivation of New Consumption Scenarios - It supports the establishment of flagship stores and the use of AI in consumer product launches [24]

Group 1 - The core message from the November Politburo meeting emphasizes the importance of strengthening the Party's leadership and ensuring the execution of national development strategies to facilitate high-quality development and clear obstacles for the second centenary goal [2][19] - The meeting indicates that the policy environment will continue to be purified, focusing on high-quality development and identifying potential risks and opportunities in the capital market [2][19] - The integration of inspection rectification with the "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests that the top-level design and local practices will be based on a thorough understanding of current development experiences and corrections of existing deviations [8][10] Group 2 - The meeting highlights that inspection rectification will be a key driver for high-quality development, with a focus on enhancing policy execution and reducing discrepancies in local implementation of central decisions [8][9] - The emphasis on a correct performance view and the implementation of new development concepts will guide local governments in aligning with national strategies, promoting sustainable and quality growth [10][11] - The meeting outlines the need for a robust cadre team and governance structure to effectively address complex challenges and enhance decision-making and execution capabilities [16][18]

华福证券 策略点评 2025 年 11 月 29 日 巡视利剑护航"十五五" 事件： 中共中央政治局 11 月 28 日召开会议，审议《关于二十届中央巡视省（自治区、 直辖市）情况的综合报告》。 主要政策解读： （1）彰显巡视利剑作用。从巡视全覆盖的成果来看，中央对省级单位的监督 已形成常态化机制。会议既肯定了各省区市工作的新进展，也直言不讳指出 存在问题，必须从政治上高度重视，这种"以巡促察、以改提质、以治固 本"的系统化治理逻辑，不仅使巡视成为全面从严治党的利剑，更成为十五 五规划精准施策的前置研判机制。 （2）强调动真碰硬整改。"动真碰硬"传递出整改工作绝不能走过场、搞形 式的强烈信号。会议将巡视整改与学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神、谋划 "十五五"规划相结合，将其定位为全面从严治党、净化政治生态、加强领 导班子建设的重要抓手，极大地提升了巡视整改的定位和意义，表明中央正 通过巡视利器，推动政治监督具体化、精准化、常态化，为高质量发展清障 护航，十五五规划的高质量编制，正以巡视整改的实效为底色。 （3）靶向施策强整改。会议重申树立正确政绩观、完善干部考核机制，正是 要破解部分地区在经济发展中可能存在的短 ...

Group 1: Economic Focus and Policy Direction - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of unifying thoughts and focusing on policy priorities to promote high-quality development and strengthen technology innovation leadership in the market[2] - The fifth and sixth rounds of inspections will primarily focus on local government work, addressing common issues identified in previous inspections, such as implementing central decisions and enhancing talent and organizational development[12] - The integration of inspection rectification with economic work is crucial for ensuring effective implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and promoting high-quality development[13] Group 2: Local Development Strategies - Local governments are encouraged to adopt tailored development strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, aligning with the central government's strategic positioning for each region[17] - Emphasis on developing characteristic and leading industries based on local resources is expected to be a core principle for the "14th Five-Year Plan" development[17] - The need for local governments to enhance their understanding of technological innovation and improve political awareness is highlighted as essential for optimizing industrial structures and achieving breakthroughs in high-tech research[17] Group 3: Risk Management and Economic Growth - The meeting underscored the importance of risk prevention and the need to enhance the social governance system to mitigate various risks, particularly in the real estate sector[18] - There is a shift towards a new development model in the real estate market, with plans to accelerate the use of special bond funds for acquiring existing properties and addressing idle land issues[18] - The focus on maintaining systemic financial risk prevention and improving financial regulatory effectiveness remains a top priority[18] Group 4: Encouraging Local Leadership - The meeting called for a correct personnel orientation to motivate local officials to take responsibility and actively engage in economic work, especially in major economic provinces[22] - Fujian, as one of the top ten economic provinces, is expected to leverage the meeting's guidance to unlock greater economic growth potential and technological innovation[22]

- The report discusses the macroeconomic recovery in China, highlighting the transition from "weak recovery" to "marginal improvement" as a key phase for economic activity and liquidity structure, which lays the foundation for subsequent profitability recovery and market style shifts towards dividends and low valuation assets [11][16][17] - A macro scoring model is referenced, indicating that the macroeconomic environment has been in a neutral to slightly pessimistic range in 2025, with the latest score (September 2025) being 7, reflecting a neutral to slightly optimistic outlook [13][14] - Dividend strategies (high dividend yield strategies) are emphasized as a classic value investment method, with their core logic analyzed from three dimensions: investor behavior, corporate operating characteristics, and market valuation systems. The dividend yield is identified as the core metric for evaluating dividend strategies [21][23] - The report highlights the strategic allocation value of dividend assets, emphasizing their long-term stable return characteristics and risk diversification functions, making them suitable as a "ballast" in investment portfolios, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [21][23][25] - The report introduces the "stability value + growth premium" logic for the power and power grid sectors, emphasizing their stable cash flow, regulatory framework ("permitted cost + reasonable return"), and policy support for energy transition and power security [26] - The report provides valuation metrics for high dividend yield-related ETF products tracking indices as of October 20, 2025. For example, the PE ratios for the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index, Smart High Dividend Index, CSI Dividend Index, and CSI All Power Index are 8.88, 8.73, 8.29, and 17.60, respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 0.85, 1.11, 0.80, and 1.76 [27][30] - The cyclical sector investment direction is analyzed, with key drivers identified as domestic demand policies and global demand recovery. Non-bank financials and consumer sectors benefit from dual drivers, while financial real estate and infrastructure are supported by domestic policies, and materials benefit from global restocking [40][42][47] - Valuation metrics for cyclical-related ETF products tracking indices are provided as of October 20, 2025. For example, the PE ratios for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank, Financial Real Estate, 800 Consumer, All Materials, and Infrastructure Engineering indices are 9.44, 9.10, 19.20, 26.90, and 8.51, respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.13, 0.86, 4.36, 2.10, and 0.72 [51][55] - The report emphasizes the role of broad-based assets like the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 ETF as core holdings in portfolios, supported by policy efforts to stabilize the market and attract long-term funds, as well as their low historical valuations and high safety margins [64][65][66] - Valuation metrics for broad-based ETF products tracking indices are provided as of October 20, 2025. For example, the PE ratios for the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices are 11.99 and 14.22, respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.30 and 1.48. Both indices are near the 68th percentile of their five-year PB range [69][70][71]

策 略 定 期 报 告 2、根据科睿唯安《风起云涌：中国生物医药创新 2.0 时代》报告， 中国生物医药产业已进入以源头创新和全球竞争力为核心的 2.0 阶段。 2024 年中国跃居全球第二大新药首发市场，66%全球新活性化合物已 在中国上市，凸显深度全球接轨。截至 8 月份，2025 年对外许可交易 额达 500 亿美元，热点从 ADC 转向双抗/小分子等方向，创新价值获 国际认可。政策端形成从30天临床快审到商保目录的端到端支持体系。 企业层面，在研管线、专利及临床试验数量均实现同比超 100%增长， 展现强劲创新动能。面对新周期，产业正通过聚焦管线结构、强化数 据整合与先进技术应用，推动研发效率提升与成本优化，持续塑造"中 国智造"全球影响力。 团队成员 华福证券 2025 年 11 月 25 日 策 略 研 究 中国生物医药创新 2.0：全球竞合、技术驱动与战 略重塑（2025.11.17—2025.11.21） 投资要点： 近期观点 1、医药指数本周关注的 6 个子行业均为负收益，表现不佳。 技术研发不及预期；宏观需求变化；地缘政治影响 证 券 研 究 报 告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a general market pressure with the A-share market declining by 5.13% during the week of November 17-21, with all 31 Shenwan industries experiencing a drop, particularly in advanced manufacturing and basic chemicals [2][10][12] - The stock-bond yield spread has increased to 0.8%, which is below the +1 standard deviation, indicating a decrease in valuation differentiation [3][22] - Market sentiment has adjusted, with an increase in industry rotation intensity, particularly favoring large-cap stocks over micro-cap stocks [3][23] Group 2 - The report highlights significant industry movements, including the launch of the multimodal AI assistant "Lingguang," which achieved over one million downloads within four days, indicating strong market interest in AI applications [4][49] - The proposed merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities is expected to reshape the brokerage industry landscape, suggesting potential investment opportunities [4][50] - The 2025 Quantum Technology and Industry Conference showcased major advancements in quantum technology, emphasizing the sector's growth potential and investment opportunities [4][51] Group 3 - The report suggests a phase of rebalancing in market styles, with a focus on sectors that have previously lagged, such as dividends and domestic demand, which may offer better value in the short term [5][53] - Long-term prospects remain positive for technology growth sectors, including TMT, energy storage, satellite connectivity, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5][53]

行业热点：全模态通用 AI 助手"灵光"发布，中金拟吸收合并东兴、 信达。（1）全模态通用 AI 助手"灵光"发布，上线 4 天突破百万下载。 （2）中金拟吸收合并东兴、信达，券业格局再迎改变。（3）2025 量子科 技和产业大会在合肥举行，量子领域多项重大成果集中发布。 行业配置：阶段性再平衡 策 略 研 究 华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 如何看待全球风险偏好的降温？ 投资要点： 本周（11/17-11/21）市场普遍承压，全 A 收跌-5.13%。从指数情况看， 上证 50、中证红利跌幅较窄，创业板指、微盘股受挫严重。从风格情况看， 金融地产跌幅较窄，先进制造领跌。本周 31 个申万行业全部收跌，银行、 传媒、食品饮料跌幅较窄，基础化工、综合、电力设备领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差上升，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差上升至 0.8%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所下降。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪调整，行业轮动强度上升。市场大盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑输市场，主题热度主要聚集在水产、拼多多合作商、中船系。（3） 市场结构：市场量能环比下降 ...