行 华福证券 机械设备 2025 年 11 月 09 日 业 研 究 机械设备 意念赋能新生活，脑机接口启新篇 投资要点： 植入者重获新生，能力升级引期待 行 业 定 全球首位 Neuralink 脑机接口植入者诺兰德・阿博，术后 21 个月已 能凭意念打字、玩游戏，还攻读神经科学专业并开展有偿演讲。马斯 克透露，阿博可能成为首个接受设备升级或双侧植入的患者，未来其 使用者有望在快速反应类电子游戏中超越人类。 技术应用显成效，未来发展藏惊喜 期 报 告 阿博为所用设备命名"Eve"，虽因压力性溃疡遭遇健康小挫折， 但仍保持乐观，计划 2026 年初发布植入两周年的 "重大消息"。随 着更多人加入临床试验，Neuralink 技术持续落地，不仅帮助患者重拾 正常生活，更在多场景应用中展现出广阔潜力。 "十五五"重点赛道，脑机接口市场规模有望快速增长 根据 precedence research，2024 年全球脑机接口市场规模约为 26.2 亿美元，预计 2025 年将达到 29.4 亿美元，到 2034 年有望增长至 124 亿美元，十年间复合年增长率为 17.35%；据工信微报，2024 年中国脑 机接口市 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [13]. Core Insights - The strategic partnership between Jingye Intelligent and domestic full-function GPU company Moore Threads aims to advance the "AI + Embodied Intelligence" strategy, with plans to launch multiple robots equipped with domestic computing solutions based on application scenarios [3][5]. - The IRON humanoid robot showcased by Xiaopeng at the Technology Day demonstrated impressive walking capabilities, while Tesla's Optimus robot also showed significant improvements in flexibility, indicating advancements in humanoid robotics [4]. - The humanoid robot market in China is projected to reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 61% from 2024 to 2030, as sales are expected to grow from approximately 4,000 units to 271,200 units [5]. Summary by Sections - **Strategic Partnerships**: Jingye Intelligent collaborates with Moore Threads to enhance AI capabilities in robotics, focusing on embodied intelligence and AI server development [3]. - **Technological Advancements**: The IRON humanoid robot and Tesla's Optimus robot showcase significant improvements in mobility and functionality, reflecting the rapid evolution in humanoid robotics [4]. - **Market Projections**: The Chinese humanoid robot market is anticipated to grow substantially, with significant increases in both market size and unit sales over the next decade [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - The global nuclear energy sector is experiencing a revival, with significant interest in small modular reactors (SMRs) as a key solution for meeting the growing energy demands of artificial intelligence [4][5]. - China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) showcased its full industry chain capabilities at the 2025 World Nuclear Energy Exhibition (WNE), highlighting technologies such as "Hualong One" and "Linglong One," which have attracted global attention [3]. - The collaboration between CNNC and international partners, including Electricité de France, emphasizes the importance of SMR technology in promoting diversified applications of nuclear energy [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the advancements in nuclear energy, particularly focusing on the development and application of small modular reactors (SMRs) [4][5]. - The exhibition highlighted CNNC's progress in small reactor construction, which has garnered interest from global corporate executives and institutional representatives [3]. Key Companies to Watch - **Jingye Intelligent**: Collaborating with Zhejiang University to establish a joint R&D center for micro-reactor/SMR technology, showing significant growth potential in the context of global AI demand and energy transition [6]. - **Jia Electric**: The main helium fan is the only power device for the primary loop of fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, with its subsidiary leading in nuclear pump products [6]. - **Guoguang Electric**: Key components for the ITER project, focusing on filter and cladding systems [6]. - **Lanshi Heavy Industry**: Covers upstream nuclear fuel systems, midstream nuclear power plant equipment, and downstream spent fuel processing [6]. - **Kexin Electromechanical**: Manufacturing high-temperature gas-cooled reactor products, with new fuel transport containers replacing imports [6]. - **Hailu Heavy Industry**: Services various reactor types, including third and fourth-generation reactors and thermonuclear fusion reactors (ITER) [6]. - **Jiangsu Shentong**: Secured over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade butterfly valves and ball valves for new nuclear power projects in China [6].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline, which has narrowed to a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% in September. Coal prices are expected to stabilize, with the lowest point for coal prices in 2025 potentially being a policy bottom. The report anticipates more supply-side policies to be introduced as competition becomes more regulated [5][6] - The coal industry is seen as being in a golden era due to energy transformation demands and strict capacity controls under carbon neutrality policies. The supply of coal is expected to be rigid, with increasing costs and regional supply differentiation [5][6] Summary by Sections Coal Prices - As of November 7, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 817 CNY/ton, up 6.1% week-on-week. The average daily output from 462 sample mines is 5.493 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,200 tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [3][30][40] - The report notes significant price increases in various coal types, with Inner Mongolia's coal price rising by 7.34% and Shanxi's by 10.13% [30][31] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port is 1860 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.68%. The average daily output from 523 sample mines is 738,000 tons, down 2.0% week-on-week [4][78] - The report highlights a decrease in the average available days of coking coal in steel mills, indicating tighter supply [78] Supply and Demand - The report indicates that the daily consumption of the six major power plants has slightly decreased to 754,000 tons, with a year-on-year decline of 4.6%. The inventory level is at 14.214 million tons, also reflecting a year-on-year decrease [42][44] - Methanol and urea production rates are reported at 87.8% and 82.7%, respectively, indicating a stable demand in the chemical sector [47] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from the coal price cycle are also highlighted as investment targets [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7]. Core Views - The report highlights that international relations have improved, leading to a further increase in spot aluminum prices [3]. - In the precious metals sector, gold and silver prices have been supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, although recent hawkish comments from Fed officials have put pressure on these prices [12]. - For industrial metals, copper prices are expected to remain supported due to tight supply conditions and strong demand from the renewable energy sector [3][19]. - The lithium market is experiencing a shift in demand from electric vehicles to energy storage, which is expected to support lithium prices in the short term [19]. - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to strong demand in the hard alloy sector and a tight supply outlook [24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report notes that gold prices are under pressure due to a decrease in the probability of further Fed rate cuts and a strengthening dollar [11][12]. - Silver prices have also been affected, with recent data showing a decline in manufacturing activity in the U.S. [12]. Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices have been buoyed by improved international relations, maintaining levels above 21,000 CNY/ton [3][17]. - Copper supply remains constrained due to production disruptions in major mining countries, while demand is expected to recover as construction projects resume [14][19]. New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are supported by strong demand for energy storage solutions, with expectations of a significant supply-demand balance improvement by 2026 [19]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to low demand and production cuts in the domestic market [20][23]. Other Minor Metals - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to strong demand and tight supply conditions, with market sentiment remaining bullish [24]. - The report indicates a mixed performance in the rare earth market, with some prices increasing while others decline [24]. Market Review - The report provides a weekly market review, highlighting significant stock movements, with Shenzhen New Star leading with a 32.62% increase [31].

- The report introduces the PCR (Put/Call Ratio) as a market sentiment indicator, which is used in a timing strategy for options trading. The strategy logic includes trend-following (PCR rising indicates positive sentiment) and counter-trend (low PCR suggests a potential sentiment reversal) approaches[5][73][65] - The PCR timing strategy is applied to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index. The strategy's performance is tracked, showing better results for the CSI 300 Index in 2025, with a year-to-date return of -2.66% and the latest signal being "no position" (signal 0)[5][83][79] - The performance metrics for the PCR strategy on the CSI 300 Index include an annualized volatility of 15.46%, a Sharpe ratio of 0, a Calmar ratio of 0.03, and a win rate of 50.25% for 2025. The overall performance from 2020 to 2025 shows an annualized return of 19.13%, a maximum drawdown of 23.42%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.97[79][83][78] - For the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, the PCR strategy's performance metrics for 2025 include an annualized volatility of 13.35%, a Sharpe ratio of -0.04, a Calmar ratio of 0, and a win rate of 50.25%. The overall performance from 2017 to 2025 shows an annualized return of 14.20%, a maximum drawdown of 24.96%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.76[80][83][78]

- The report introduces a quantitative model for evaluating equity funds' performance. The model uses 22 benchmark indices as independent variables and fund returns as dependent variables. A univariate linear regression is conducted for each index, and the rolling window regression is applied with a 6-month window to calculate the R² matrix for each fund. The index with the highest average R² over the last six periods is selected as the performance reference index. The corresponding regression equation result is used as the performance outcome [16][17] - The report evaluates the overall strategy of public equity funds by analyzing the goodness-of-fit (R²) of funds relative to single indices. In October 2025, the average R² value was 0.7357, with 4.73% of funds exceeding 0.9 and 34.44% below 0.7. This indicates a loss of market concentration and a trend toward diversified holdings among public funds [35] - The report categorizes equity funds into five styles: large-cap, mid-small-cap, value, growth, and sector themes. In October 2025, value funds performed the best with a median return of 3.7%, while growth funds showed the most significant polarization, with the best return at 8.2% and the worst at -10.5% [22][23] - The report highlights the performance of sector-themed funds, with cyclical funds achieving an average return of 3.1% in October 2025. Among cyclical funds, the best performer was the "Coal Equal Weight LOF" with a return of 9.9%. In the technology sector, the best performer was "Caitong Growth Preferred A," with a return of 13.6% [25][28] - The report identifies high-rated funds that demonstrate excellent performance, risk control, and investment strategy. For example, in the mid-small-cap category, "Huitianfu Balanced Selection Six-Month Holding" achieved a recent score of 10 with an R² of 0.74, while "Hongde Zhixuan Qiyuan A" scored 10 with an R² of 0.95 [55][56] - The report also tracks newly rated funds, defined as those receiving their first rating in the current month and managed by fund managers with less than three years of experience. In October 2025, seven such funds were identified, with most benchmarked against the CSI 500 index [61][63][64] - The report highlights funds with significant rating upgrades, reflecting improved performance and management optimization. For instance, "泉果思源三年持有 A" (Quanguo Siyuan Three-Year Holding A) was upgraded and benchmarked against the "New Energy Vehicle" index [65][66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the basic chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [7]. Core Insights - The basic chemical sector has shown significant growth, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 3.62% this week, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and the ChiNext [15][18]. - Key developments include the successful order acquisition by Duofluorine for boron isotope products from China General Nuclear Power Group, marking a milestone in the application of these products in various high-tech fields [3][27]. - BASF's Zhanjiang base has successfully launched its 2-EHA production line, which is expected to enhance its capacity to meet the growing demand in China and the Asia-Pacific region [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall performance of the chemical sector is robust, with notable increases in various sub-sectors, particularly phosphate fertilizers (up 12.4%) and organic silicon (up 10.04%) [15][18]. - The top-performing companies in the chemical sector this week include Qing Shui Yuan (up 47.78%) and Zhenhua Co. (up 37.19%) [19][24]. Key Industry Dynamics - Investment themes highlight the competitiveness of domestic tire manufacturers, with companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire being recommended for their growth potential [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies, particularly in the display materials supply chain [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of resilient cyclical industries, such as phosphate and fluorine chemicals, which are expected to see tightening supply-demand dynamics due to environmental regulations and increasing downstream demand [5]. Sub-Industry Reviews - **Polyurethane**: The price of pure MDI has increased by 3.26% to 19,000 CNY/ton, with stable operating rates [28]. - **Tires**: The operating load for all-steel tires in Shandong has increased to 65.54%, indicating a positive trend in production [51]. - **Fertilizers**: The price of monoammonium phosphate has risen by 2.17% to 3,472.5 CNY/ton, reflecting strong demand [71]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, are well-positioned to benefit from economic recovery and rising demand [9]. - The vitamin market is experiencing supply disruptions, particularly for vitamins A and E, which may lead to increased prices as demand rises [9].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company has reached an inflection point in profitability, with significant growth in net profit and revenue expected in the coming years, driven by multiple factors including improved overseas demand and brand development [3][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2003, focuses on sleep products and has a global brand presence, with production bases in various countries including the US, Serbia, Thailand, and Spain [17][18]. - The company aims to enhance human deep sleep and has developed a range of products including memory foam mattresses and smart beds [17]. Financial Overview - As of the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and a net profit of 161 million yuan, up 205% year-on-year [3][30]. - The company has completed a share buyback of 19,406,350 shares, accounting for 3.4% of total shares, intended for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives [3][22]. External Sales: Three Driving Forces - **Driving Force 1**: Recovery in overseas furniture demand, particularly in the US mattress market, is expected as interest rates decline and housing sales stabilize [4][44]. - **Driving Force 2**: The company is capitalizing on the growth of its online brands, with online sales accounting for 31% of overseas revenue, and a 76% increase in revenue from its EGO HOME brand in the first three quarters of 2025 [4][66]. - **Driving Force 3**: The US factory has turned profitable, with a significant increase in capacity utilization, and the company is expected to benefit from economies of scale [4][44]. Domestic Sales: Steady Development - Domestic sales account for approximately 17% of total revenue, with a focus on building a comprehensive home furnishing ecosystem through various product lines [5][30]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 230 million yuan, 380 million yuan, and 490 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth rates [6][30]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 23X for 2025 and 14X for 2026, which is slightly below the average of comparable companies [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its status as a domestic leader in MEMS foundry with certain scarcity in the market [5][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the MEMS foundry sector, having acquired Silex Microsystems, a global leader in MEMS chip manufacturing, and is focusing on semiconductor business [3][16]. - The MEMS market is expected to grow from USD 14.6 billion in 2023 to USD 20 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 5%, presenting significant growth opportunities for the company [4]. - The company is actively developing key technologies in "bottleneck" areas such as filters and LiDAR, which are becoming new growth drivers [5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in May 2008 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in May 2015, the company specializes in high-end integrated circuit chip wafer manufacturing and has independent intellectual property rights [3][16]. - The company acquired Silex in 2016 and has since focused on integrating MEMS business while divesting from aerospace electronics [16][19]. Business Operations - The company's main revenue sources are MEMS wafer manufacturing and process development, accounting for over 80% of total revenue [22]. - The company manufactures various MEMS sensors and devices, serving clients in diverse sectors including communication, biomedical, industrial automotive, and consumer electronics [22][26]. Financial Analysis - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at CNY 896 million, CNY 580 million, and CNY 766 million, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of -25.63%, -35.23%, and 31.97% [5][6]. - The company expects a significant increase in net profit in 2025 due to the sale of Silex shares, with a projected net profit of CNY 1.132 billion [5][37]. Research and Development - The company emphasizes R&D, with a spending rate of 30% to 40% of revenue, and has a strong team of experts in MEMS technology [48]. - Ongoing projects include MEMS resonator manufacturing technology and MEMS gas sensor chip development, which are expected to open new market opportunities [47][48].