Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [13]. Core Insights - The development of AI large models has led to an explosive growth in global data center energy demand, making traditional fossil energy insufficient. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are seen as a key solution due to their power adaptability and near-zero emissions [4][5]. - Major technology companies like Google and Amazon are investing in SMRs, while China is forming alliances with over 60 entities, including China National Nuclear Corporation and China Huaneng, to create a complete industrial chain from R&D to commercialization [4][5]. - China has a technological lead in the SMR sector, with successful trials of the "Linglong One" and commercial operations of the Shandong Shidao Bay High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor. The establishment of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor alliance aims to enhance technological advantages and reduce construction costs [5][6]. Company Summaries - **Jingye Intelligent**: Collaborating with Zhejiang University to establish a micro-reactor/SMR technology R&D center, showcasing significant development potential in the context of rising AI energy demands [6]. - **Jia Electric**: The main helium fan is the only power device in the primary loop of fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, with its subsidiary Ha Electric's nuclear main pump leading in the nuclear power sector [6]. - **Guoguang Electric**: The company's filters and cladding systems are key components of the ITER project [6]. - **Lanshi Heavy Industry**: Covers upstream nuclear fuel systems, midstream nuclear power plant equipment, and downstream spent fuel processing [6]. - **Kexin Electromechanical**: Producing high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power products and replacing imports with new fuel transport containers [6]. - **Hailu Heavy Industry**: Services various reactor types, including third and fourth-generation reactors and thermonuclear fusion reactors (ITER) [6]. - **Jiangsu Shentong**: Secured over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade butterfly valves and nuclear-grade ball valves for new nuclear power projects in China [6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [15]. Core Insights - From January to November 2025, the total fixed asset investment in railways reached 753.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, effectively driving overall social investment [4][5]. - The China National Railway Group is focused on implementing national strategies and regional development to accelerate railway planning and construction, achieving significant breakthroughs in key projects [4][5]. - The operational mileage of railways is set to increase significantly, with a target of 200,000 kilometers by 2035, creating vast market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [6]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The railway construction results from January to November are notable, with key projects advancing rapidly [3]. - The China National Railway Group aims to ensure the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for railway construction through optimized resource allocation and construction organization [5]. Market Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines that by 2025, the railway operating mileage will reach 165,000 kilometers, with high-speed rail accounting for 50,000 kilometers [6]. - To meet the 2035 target, approximately 35,000 kilometers of railway, including 20,000 kilometers of high-speed rail, need to be constructed from 2026 to 2035, averaging 3,500 kilometers of new railway lines annually [6]. Recommended Companies - China CNR: A global leader in rail transit equipment, maintaining a strong industry position [6]. - China Railway Signal & Communication Corp: A leading provider of rail transit control systems [6]. - Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [6]. - Sifang Control: A core supplier in the field of high-speed rail comprehensive monitoring [6]. - Shenzhou High-speed Railway: A leading enterprise in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit [6]. - Huahui Technology: Provides integrated solutions for rail transit operation and maintenance, with rich experience in technology development and project implementation [6].

工业金属：基本面偏紧叠加降息预期，铜价刷新年度高点。铜，美联 储降息预期仍在，基本面偏紧格局延续支撑铜价；中长期，随美联储降息 加深提振投资和消费，叠加特朗普政府后续可能宽财政带来的通胀反弹将 支撑铜价中枢上移，新能源需求强劲将带动供需缺口拉大，继续看好铜价。 铝，短期处于季节性淡季或导致铝价震荡运行；中长期看，国内天花板+ 能源不足持续扰动，同时新能源需求仍保持旺盛，紧平衡致铝价易涨难跌。 个股：铜，关注江铜、洛钼、盛屯、藏格、金诚信及北铜，H股关注中色 矿及五矿等。铝，关注天山、宏创、云铝、神火、华通、宏桥及中孚等标 的。 华福证券 行 业 研 究 有色金属 20251213 周报：美联储降息靴子落地，周内金银 铜等金属表现强势 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美联储降息靴子落地，黄金震荡偏强运行。美国劳工部12月4 日公布的数据成为市场焦点，上周初请失业金人数意外降至19.1万人，创 下逾三年来的最低水平，远低于经济学家预期的22万人。这一降幅达2.7 万人，缓解了此前对劳动力市场急剧恶化的担忧。在俄乌冲突方面，美国 施压乌克兰和谈的同时，法、德、英领导人在伦敦会晤泽连斯基并明确表 达支持， ...

Market Performance Review 2025 - The economic environment gradually stabilized under policy support, with PMI remaining below the growth line, indicating a "weak stabilization" trend [3][8] - PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed, while CPI showed an overall upward recovery, leading to a structural recovery in the economy, particularly in small-cap tech stocks driving a "fast bull" market [3][8] - The transition from "short on stocks, long on bonds" to "long on stocks, short on bonds" reflects a shift in trading logic, with the performance of equity assets improving significantly compared to bonds [9][31] Balance Between New and Traditional Economies - The contribution of the new economy to GDP remains limited, although it is steadily increasing, making it difficult to drive overall growth [3][20] - A style switch occurred post-August, with growth styles accelerating while value styles declined, indicating a divergence in returns between high and low valuation styles [3][20] - The valuation of the tech sector reached 3.95 times, higher than other sectors, suggesting that high valuation tech stocks may struggle to sustain market momentum [3][20] Market Outlook and Strategy for 2026 - The market is expected to be driven by value and quality styles in 2026, similar to the value bull market of 2016-2017, without necessarily requiring high trading volumes [3][19] - The investment logic for 2026 is characterized by "long on beta, short on volatility," with a focus on low-valuation value stocks to capture beta returns [3][19] - The market is entering a stable phase, with a gradual realization of low-valuation assets rather than a short-term surge in high-volatility assets [3][19] Fund Market Dynamics - The public fund market is characterized by a lack of incremental growth, maintaining a stock game due to the absence of new capital inflows [24][27] - Active equity funds show a significant bias towards sectors such as electronics, power equipment and new energy, pharmaceuticals, and communications [27][28] - The trend of excess savings has peaked and is now flowing into the equity market, indicating a shift in investor behavior [28][30]

2025 年 12 月 12 日 金 融 工 程 "焕新"与"优选"：自由现金流指数调样在即， 关注 ETF 长期配置与事件机遇 投资要点： 自由现金流的市场表现与优势 究 报 告 紧密跟踪下获取了可观的超额收益，整体流动性良好：自 2025 年 6 月 6 日上市以来累计收益率达 19.11%，相较于中证现金流基 准指数的 16.05%，127 个交易日实现 3.06%的区间累计超额收益， 年化超额达到 7.06%，相对指数创造了较为可观且稳健的超额收 益。在跟踪精度方面，基金日均绝对跟踪误差仅 0.02%，12 月以 来产品日均成交额接近 1 亿元，流动性良好。基金经理赵建忠先 生目前在管产品 13 只，在管规模 63.88 亿元，管理经验丰富。 风险提示 本报告所有分析均基于公开信息，不构成任何投资建议；若市场环境或政 策因素发生不利变化将可能造成行业发展表现不及预期；报告采用的样本 数据有限，存在样本不足以代表整体市场的风险，且数据处理统计方式可 能存在误差；过往业绩不代表未来表现；历史规律总结仅供参考，或不会 完全重演。 分析师： 李杨(S0210524100005) ly30676@hfzq.co ...

2025 年 12 月 12 日 金 融 工 程 "焕新"与"优选"：自由现金流指数调样在即， 关注 ETF 长期配置与事件机遇 究 报 告 紧密跟踪下获取了可观的超额收益，整体流动性良好：自 2025 年 6 月 6 日上市以来累计收益率达 19.11%，相较于中证现金流基 准指数的 16.05%，127 个交易日实现 3.06%的区间累计超额收益， 年化超额达到 7.06%，相对指数创造了较为可观且稳健的超额收 益。在跟踪精度方面，基金日均绝对跟踪误差仅 0.02%，12 月以 来产品日均成交额接近 1 亿元，流动性良好。基金经理赵建忠先 生目前在管产品 13 只，在管规模 63.88 亿元，管理经验丰富。 风险提示 本报告所有分析均基于公开信息，不构成任何投资建议；若市场环境或政 策因素发生不利变化将可能造成行业发展表现不及预期；报告采用的样本 数据有限，存在样本不足以代表整体市场的风险，且数据处理统计方式可 能存在误差；过往业绩不代表未来表现；历史规律总结仅供参考，或不会 完全重演。 团队成员 分析师： 李杨(S0210524100005) ly30676@hfzq.com.cn 投资要点： 自由现金 ...

行 华福证券 轻工制造 2025 年 12 月 12 日 业 研 究 轻工制造 12 月外盘浆价再涨，浆纸共振期待板块回暖 投资要点： 事件：12 月外盘浆价报涨，海外浆厂供应端持续扰动 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 根据卓创资讯，智利 Arauco 公司 12 月木浆外盘报价公布，其中针叶浆银 星涨 20 美元/吨至 700 美元/吨；阔叶浆明星涨 20 美元/吨至 570 美元/吨。 近期海外针叶浆厂供应端持续扰动，12 月 2 日，Domtar 宣布将于 12 月中 旬永久关停其位于加拿大 BC 省的 Crofton 针叶浆厂（年产能 38 万吨）。芬 兰 Metsä Fibre 也宣布 Rauma 浆厂停机计划（年产能 65 万吨，计划停机时 间在 12 月 15 日至 2026 年 1 月 7 日），并宣布 2026 年大幅削减 Joutseno 针 叶浆厂产量（年产能 69 万吨）。阔叶浆自 9 月以来震荡上行，针阔价差收 窄，侧面支撑进口针叶浆价格。 券 研 究 报 告 若 26 年浆价处于上行通道，在催化纸价修复的过程中也将逐步抬升纸企的 生产成本，我们建议优选有林地/自给浆的一体化龙头，自制浆线具 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference recognized challenges in economic operations and emphasized optimizing supply and tapping into existing potential for growth in 2024[2] - The focus will be on fiscal and monetary expansion to enhance policy effectiveness, promote growth, and stabilize prices[2] - Policies will aim to increase household income and expand consumption, with a central fiscal expansion to stabilize investment[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The new round of "supply-side reform" will focus on utilizing existing infrastructure and capacity to improve production efficiency and release potential growth space[4] - The meeting highlighted the need to match supply with demand and emphasized the importance of optimizing existing resources[17] Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policies - Fiscal policy intensity is expected to increase, with a focus on better utilizing limited fiscal resources and maintaining necessary fiscal deficits[18] - Monetary policy will adopt a dual easing approach to support economic growth and price recovery, with potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates expected by year-end[22] Group 4: Risk Management and Coordination - There will be a focus on ensuring policy coordination and evaluating both existing and new policies to avoid conflicts and enhance effectiveness[23] - Clear guidelines for risk management have been established, particularly concerning real estate and local government debt[29]

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report emphasizes a stable and progressive approach to economic development, marking the beginning of a new chapter in high-quality growth [7] - The macro policy interpretation highlights a focus on enhancing the effectiveness of economic governance and ensuring consistency in policy direction, aiming to boost social confidence and market expectations [8] - The report outlines eight key tasks for 2026, with a focus on domestic demand and innovation as primary drivers for short-term stability and long-term growth [13][14] Group 2 - The investment strategy suggests that investors should focus on two main lines: "policy support certainty" and "new quality growth space," particularly in areas such as domestic demand recovery, technological innovation, and green transformation [7][17] - Specific investment recommendations include targeting sectors that benefit from income recovery and consumption scene restoration, as well as those involved in infrastructure and public utilities with stable dividends [17][18] - The report identifies opportunities in the real estate sector, particularly in revitalizing quality assets in key cities and in financial institutions that are expected to benefit from risk mitigation efforts [16][18]

华福证券 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 锚定提质增效，聚力八大任务 事件： 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。习近平总书记在重要讲话 中总结 2025 年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署 2026 年经济工作。 主要政策解读： （1）政策协同发力锚定提质增效核心。"逆周期调节"旨在熨平短期经济波 动，而"跨周期调节"则着眼于中长期的结构优化与风险防范。财政和货币 政策双宽松旨在有效对冲内需不足的压力，为"十五五"实现良好开局营造 充裕的流动性环境和需求支撑。 （2）八大重点任务攻坚，夯实高质量发展底盘。会议部署的八大重点任务构 建起全方位发展布局，既聚焦核心动力培育，也注重发展活力激发，更强化 底线思维落实，系统回应了当前经济的主要矛盾。会议将"坚持内需主导， 建设强大国内市场"置于首位，并提出了从需求端到供给端、从消费到投资 的一揽子具体措施，标志着扩内需战略从宏观定调进入精细化实施阶段。 "对内改革攻坚"破除体制机制障碍、"对外扩大开放"拓展发展空间，形 成内外协同、双向赋能的发展格局，为高质量发展注入持久动力。"协调发 展"和"双碳引领"两大重点任务的推进将共同指 ...