2025 年 12 月 12 日 金 融 工 程 "焕新"与"优选"：自由现金流指数调样在即， 关注 ETF 长期配置与事件机遇 投资要点： 自由现金流的市场表现与优势 究 报 告 紧密跟踪下获取了可观的超额收益，整体流动性良好：自 2025 年 6 月 6 日上市以来累计收益率达 19.11%，相较于中证现金流基 准指数的 16.05%，127 个交易日实现 3.06%的区间累计超额收益， 年化超额达到 7.06%，相对指数创造了较为可观且稳健的超额收 益。在跟踪精度方面，基金日均绝对跟踪误差仅 0.02%，12 月以 来产品日均成交额接近 1 亿元，流动性良好。基金经理赵建忠先 生目前在管产品 13 只，在管规模 63.88 亿元，管理经验丰富。 风险提示 本报告所有分析均基于公开信息，不构成任何投资建议；若市场环境或政 策因素发生不利变化将可能造成行业发展表现不及预期；报告采用的样本 数据有限，存在样本不足以代表整体市场的风险，且数据处理统计方式可 能存在误差；过往业绩不代表未来表现；历史规律总结仅供参考，或不会 完全重演。 分析师： 李杨(S0210524100005) ly30676@hfzq.co ...

2025 年 12 月 12 日 金 融 工 程 "焕新"与"优选"：自由现金流指数调样在即， 关注 ETF 长期配置与事件机遇 究 报 告 紧密跟踪下获取了可观的超额收益，整体流动性良好：自 2025 年 6 月 6 日上市以来累计收益率达 19.11%，相较于中证现金流基 准指数的 16.05%，127 个交易日实现 3.06%的区间累计超额收益， 年化超额达到 7.06%，相对指数创造了较为可观且稳健的超额收 益。在跟踪精度方面，基金日均绝对跟踪误差仅 0.02%，12 月以 来产品日均成交额接近 1 亿元，流动性良好。基金经理赵建忠先 生目前在管产品 13 只，在管规模 63.88 亿元，管理经验丰富。 风险提示 本报告所有分析均基于公开信息，不构成任何投资建议；若市场环境或政 策因素发生不利变化将可能造成行业发展表现不及预期；报告采用的样本 数据有限，存在样本不足以代表整体市场的风险，且数据处理统计方式可 能存在误差；过往业绩不代表未来表现；历史规律总结仅供参考，或不会 完全重演。 团队成员 分析师： 李杨(S0210524100005) ly30676@hfzq.com.cn 投资要点： 自由现金 ...

行 华福证券 轻工制造 2025 年 12 月 12 日 业 研 究 轻工制造 12 月外盘浆价再涨，浆纸共振期待板块回暖 投资要点： 事件：12 月外盘浆价报涨，海外浆厂供应端持续扰动 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 根据卓创资讯，智利 Arauco 公司 12 月木浆外盘报价公布，其中针叶浆银 星涨 20 美元/吨至 700 美元/吨；阔叶浆明星涨 20 美元/吨至 570 美元/吨。 近期海外针叶浆厂供应端持续扰动，12 月 2 日，Domtar 宣布将于 12 月中 旬永久关停其位于加拿大 BC 省的 Crofton 针叶浆厂（年产能 38 万吨）。芬 兰 Metsä Fibre 也宣布 Rauma 浆厂停机计划（年产能 65 万吨，计划停机时 间在 12 月 15 日至 2026 年 1 月 7 日），并宣布 2026 年大幅削减 Joutseno 针 叶浆厂产量（年产能 69 万吨）。阔叶浆自 9 月以来震荡上行，针阔价差收 窄，侧面支撑进口针叶浆价格。 券 研 究 报 告 若 26 年浆价处于上行通道，在催化纸价修复的过程中也将逐步抬升纸企的 生产成本，我们建议优选有林地/自给浆的一体化龙头，自制浆线具 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference recognized challenges in economic operations and emphasized optimizing supply and tapping into existing potential for growth in 2024[2] - The focus will be on fiscal and monetary expansion to enhance policy effectiveness, promote growth, and stabilize prices[2] - Policies will aim to increase household income and expand consumption, with a central fiscal expansion to stabilize investment[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The new round of "supply-side reform" will focus on utilizing existing infrastructure and capacity to improve production efficiency and release potential growth space[4] - The meeting highlighted the need to match supply with demand and emphasized the importance of optimizing existing resources[17] Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policies - Fiscal policy intensity is expected to increase, with a focus on better utilizing limited fiscal resources and maintaining necessary fiscal deficits[18] - Monetary policy will adopt a dual easing approach to support economic growth and price recovery, with potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates expected by year-end[22] Group 4: Risk Management and Coordination - There will be a focus on ensuring policy coordination and evaluating both existing and new policies to avoid conflicts and enhance effectiveness[23] - Clear guidelines for risk management have been established, particularly concerning real estate and local government debt[29]

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report emphasizes a stable and progressive approach to economic development, marking the beginning of a new chapter in high-quality growth [7] - The macro policy interpretation highlights a focus on enhancing the effectiveness of economic governance and ensuring consistency in policy direction, aiming to boost social confidence and market expectations [8] - The report outlines eight key tasks for 2026, with a focus on domestic demand and innovation as primary drivers for short-term stability and long-term growth [13][14] Group 2 - The investment strategy suggests that investors should focus on two main lines: "policy support certainty" and "new quality growth space," particularly in areas such as domestic demand recovery, technological innovation, and green transformation [7][17] - Specific investment recommendations include targeting sectors that benefit from income recovery and consumption scene restoration, as well as those involved in infrastructure and public utilities with stable dividends [17][18] - The report identifies opportunities in the real estate sector, particularly in revitalizing quality assets in key cities and in financial institutions that are expected to benefit from risk mitigation efforts [16][18]

华福证券 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 锚定提质增效，聚力八大任务 事件： 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。习近平总书记在重要讲话 中总结 2025 年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署 2026 年经济工作。 主要政策解读： （1）政策协同发力锚定提质增效核心。"逆周期调节"旨在熨平短期经济波 动，而"跨周期调节"则着眼于中长期的结构优化与风险防范。财政和货币 政策双宽松旨在有效对冲内需不足的压力，为"十五五"实现良好开局营造 充裕的流动性环境和需求支撑。 （2）八大重点任务攻坚，夯实高质量发展底盘。会议部署的八大重点任务构 建起全方位发展布局，既聚焦核心动力培育，也注重发展活力激发，更强化 底线思维落实，系统回应了当前经济的主要矛盾。会议将"坚持内需主导， 建设强大国内市场"置于首位，并提出了从需求端到供给端、从消费到投资 的一揽子具体措施，标志着扩内需战略从宏观定调进入精细化实施阶段。 "对内改革攻坚"破除体制机制障碍、"对外扩大开放"拓展发展空间，形 成内外协同、双向赋能的发展格局，为高质量发展注入持久动力。"协调发 展"和"双碳引领"两大重点任务的推进将共同指 ...

Group 1: Theme Opportunity Identification - The report focuses on identifying theme investment opportunities through comprehensive screening of theme indices, allowing investment managers to concentrate on logical analysis and decision-making[2] - It aims to create investable theme indices by mapping stocks and convertible bonds, providing sector classification and institutional holdings as auxiliary indicators[2] - The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing "bottom stabilization" and "bottom reversal" opportunities, which are distinct from right-side strategies[6] Group 2: Bottom Stabilization and Reversal Signals - Bottom stabilization is characterized by a price low, a "golden needle" pattern, and a breakout confirmation, requiring subsequent price confirmation for validity[15] - Bottom reversal signals are defined by a price low, significant volume increase, and a breakout above moving averages, attracting market attention and additional capital[15] - Historical data shows that bottom stabilization patterns yield significant excess returns, particularly in volatile and declining markets, with a notable win rate in 2021 and 2022[23] Group 3: Institutional Participation and Fund Holdings - As of Q3 2025, indices with a fund holding ratio of 2-5% account for the highest proportion at 43.4%, with technology theme indices like optical modules having a fund holding ratio of 20.4%[25] - The report highlights the need to assess institutional participation in theme markets through fund holding data, indicating a strong interest in specific sectors[25] Group 4: Investment Implementation and Risk Factors - The report outlines the investment implementation process for theme opportunities, focusing on recent leading stocks and convertible bonds within the theme indices[31] - It includes risk warnings such as historical performance not guaranteeing future results, industry uncertainties, and potential geopolitical risks affecting market stability[37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the stability of the fixed income market is recovering, with a focus on the liquidity situation and upcoming policy signals by the end of the year [1][2][3] - In October, the excess reserve ratio decreased by approximately 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%, slightly below the expected 1.3%, primarily due to an increase in government deposits [1][19] - Government deposits rose by 625.8 billion yuan in October, exceeding the expected 378.1 billion yuan, which contributed to the lower-than-expected excess reserve ratio [1][19][20] Group 2 - In November, the broad fiscal deficit is expected to be relatively high, but with a significant increase in government debt net payments, government deposits are projected to decrease by about 250 billion yuan, which will provide some liquidity support [2][27] - The report anticipates an increase in monetary issuance of approximately 140 billion yuan in November, with a rise in reserve requirements by about 110 billion yuan [2][28] - The central bank's net repurchase operations in November are expected to result in a net withdrawal of 5,562 billion yuan, while MLF net investment is projected at 1,000 billion yuan [2][42] Group 3 - The report highlights that the central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain relatively loose, with a focus on maintaining stability in the financial system despite some tightening in the money market [3][55] - The average issuance scale of key-term government bonds in November decreased compared to October, indicating a potential shift in government financing strategies [2][33] - The report notes that the central bank's net purchase of government bonds in November was only 50 billion yuan, which is lower than market expectations, reflecting a cautious approach to liquidity management [4][57] Group 4 - The report discusses the implications of the central bank's emphasis on "cross-cycle" and "counter-cyclical" adjustments, indicating a desire to manage the growth of social financing and M2 in relation to nominal GDP [3][45] - It is noted that the central bank's actions may be a response to previous recommendations from the National People's Congress regarding monetary policy adjustments [4][48] - The report suggests that while there is a potential for interest rate cuts in Q1 of the following year, the timing may be influenced by the overall economic conditions and fiscal policies [4][11]

Group 1: Theme Investment Strategy - The report aims to create a tool for theme investment by identifying theme opportunities through comprehensive screening of theme indices[2] - It emphasizes the importance of recognizing "right-side trend" opportunities, which can lead to significant and prolonged price increases[5] - A three-dimensional warning system for market peaks is constructed, focusing on trading heat, BOLL indicators, and major bearish line breaks[19] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Backtesting results indicate that the right-side trend pattern shows significant excess returns, particularly in 2023 and 2024, outperforming other strategies[27] - The proportion of indices with a fund holding ratio of 2-5% is the highest at 43.4%, with the highest fund holding ratio in technology theme indices at 20.4%[30] - The average return for the right-side trend signals is notably higher during volatile and upward market conditions, with a win rate improvement observed[24] Group 3: Risk Factors - Historical performance does not guarantee future results, and investors should consider current market conditions and economic trends[42] - Risks include slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties in global monetary policy[42] - The report warns of industry-specific uncertainties due to rapid technological changes and evolving consumer preferences[42]

Economic Goals and Strategies - The 2026 economic work will maintain high target settings to ensure sustainable high-quality development, balancing "hard power" and "soft power" while optimizing resource utilization[3][19] - The growth target for 2026 is expected to remain high, reflecting the resilience of economic growth and guiding positive societal expectations[4][19] Hard and Soft Power Development - The enhancement of national comprehensive strength requires a balance between economic, technological, and defense "hard power" and cultural, institutional, and diplomatic "soft power"[5][20] - Policies supporting the development of "soft power" are anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on quality cultural products and services[5][20] Supply-Side Reforms and Employment - The new round of supply-side reforms will focus on optimizing supply and utilizing existing capacity, addressing "overcapacity" as a resource to be developed[7][24] - Emphasis on "stabilizing employment" as a priority, with policies aimed at creating new job opportunities and addressing structural unemployment among youth[9][29] Policy Implementation and Coordination - Effective policy implementation is crucial, requiring sustained efforts over time to ensure that policies benefit individuals and businesses[10][30] - The focus on policy synergy emphasizes the need for new policies to align with existing ones, avoiding conflicts and ensuring comprehensive implementation[11][31] Domestic Market Strengthening - The domestic market must not only be large but also resilient, with a focus on enhancing internal demand and ensuring supply chain security[12][35] - Building a strong domestic market involves diversifying supply and fostering innovation to make consumption a leading force in domestic demand growth[12][35] Social Welfare and Living Standards - Continuous improvement of living standards is essential, with a focus on social security mechanisms to provide a safety net for citizens[13][36] - The government aims to enhance overall living quality while addressing specific local needs through grassroots initiatives[13][36] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include fiscal and monetary policies falling short of expectations, unexpected downturns in the real estate market, and complex external environments[14][37][38]