证券研究报告 2025年07月06日 计算机 稳定币产业加速，数字金融进入新阶段 ——计算机稳定币研究专题 评级：推荐(维持) 刘熹(证券分析师) 郭义俊(联系人) S0350523040001 S0350124070015 liux10@ghzq.com.cn guoyj@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -16% 4% 25% 45% 66% 86% 2024/07/04 2024/10/02 2024/12/31 2025/03/31 2025/06/29 计算机 沪深300 《模型性能不断提升，AI应用进入兑现期——计算机AI应用月度跟踪（2025- 05）（推荐）*计算机*刘熹》——2025-05-26 《计算机行业深度：大模型研究框架（2025）——"大模型"系列（5）（推 《域控制器研究框架——计算机"智能驾驶"系列专题二（推荐）*计算机*刘 熹》——2025-06-24 《计算机行业点评报告：特斯拉Robotaxi商业化时刻将至（推荐）*计算机*刘 熹》——2025-06-15 《计算机行业动态研究：稳定币头部企业Circle IPO，数字货币发展加速（推 荐）*计算机*刘熹》— ...

2025 年 07 月 06 日 资产配置报告 投资要点： 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、当前中国宏观经济形势如何；2、当 下最优的大类资产配置策略是什么；3、如何看待和投资红利资产。 最近一年走势 相关报告 《公募 REITs 周报：一级市场项目进展顺利，二级 市场收益承压*林加力》——2025-07-02 《公募 REITs 周报：REITs 迎里程碑事件，首批数 据中心项目获批*林加力》——2025-06-23 《资产配置报告：2025 陆家嘴论坛点评——金融 开放与改革并举*林加力》——2025-06-21 《公募 REITs 周报：REITs 指数延续涨势，产权类 本周走强*林加力》——2025-06-16 《5 月资金流向月报：资金面宽松，科创 ETF 净流 入*徐凝碧，林加力》——2025-06-15 | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 林加力 S0350524100005 | | | | linjl01@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 许潇琦 S0350125030006 | | | | xuxq01@ghzq.co ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The signing of a 200MW power supply agreement between Google and Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) is a strong validation of the commercial viability of nuclear fusion technology [5][6] - The increase in nuclear fusion project tenders since 2025 indicates a growing interest and investment in this sector, with various domestic projects accelerating [6] - The report emphasizes that nuclear fusion is a crucial solution to humanity's energy challenges, and the competition in this field is intensifying globally [6] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The utility sector has shown a performance of 1.7% over the last month, 2.7% over the last three months, and a decline of 2.1% over the past year, compared to the CSI 300 index which has increased by 2.9%, 3.1%, and 15.6% respectively [4] Key Investment Points - CFS's tokamak technology has completed feasibility verification, with assembly starting in March 2025 and expectations to achieve Q>1 by 2027 [6] - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant project positioning advantages, including Guoguang Electric, Hezhong Intelligent, and others in various segments such as power systems and materials [6][8] Focused Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with their respective stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E, indicating their potential growth and investment ratings [8]

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have shown a significant upward trend, surpassing $1,000 per ounce in March 2008, $2,000 in August 2020, and reaching over $3,000 in March 2025[2][18] - The average production cost of gold increased by 45% from $1,003 per ounce in Q4 2020 to $1,456 in Q3 2024, while gold prices rose by 32% during the same period[6][30] - Investment demand for gold reached 42.1% of total demand in Q1 2025, up from an average of 29.1% from 2010 to 2024[4][22] Group 2: Demand Sources - The four main sources of gold demand are jewelry (43.7%), central bank purchases (23.6%), investment (25.7%), and technology (7.1%) as of 2024[4][19] - Central banks have consistently purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, accounting for nearly 30% of global mine production[4][24] - Gold jewelry demand averaged 49.6% of total demand from 2010 to 2024, making it the largest source of gold consumption[4][19] Group 3: Economic Influences - Actual interest rates are a key driver of gold price fluctuations; as rates rise, gold becomes less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets[7][35] - The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times from March 2022 to July 2023, totaling 525 basis points, which pressured gold prices down from $2,050 to $1,820 per ounce[7][35] - Global debt levels reached approximately $324 trillion in Q1 2025, with a $7.5 trillion increase in just three months, raising concerns about economic stability and boosting gold's appeal as a safe haven[10][50] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Market liquidity significantly impacts gold prices; increased liquidity typically raises gold demand, while tightening liquidity can lead to price declines[8][40] - In August 2020, gold prices exceeded $2,000 per ounce due to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing measures during the pandemic[8][40] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since 2019, reflecting a growing trend towards gold accumulation[11][54]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that Langke Technology (300042.SZ) is actively positioning itself within the computing power ecosystem, benefiting from the "East Data West Computing" initiative in Shaoguan [2][3] - Langke Technology is a leader in the storage industry, having been established in 1999 and listed on the Growth Enterprise Market in 2010, with a product range that includes SSDs, DDR, embedded storage, and mobile storage [3] - The company experienced a decline in revenue from 2022 to 2024, with figures of 1.772 billion, 1.088 billion, and 0.829 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 7.36%, 38.63%, and 23.73% due to weak terminal demand and falling product prices [3] Group 2 - The global storage market is expected to enter an upward cycle driven by increased shipments of electronic devices and data center construction, with the NAND Flash market in China accounting for approximately 36% and DRAM for about 62% [4] - The global smartphone market is projected to rebound strongly in 2024, with shipments reaching 1.22 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 7% [4] - The global data center market is estimated to be worth approximately 82.2 billion USD in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 10.04%, and is expected to reach 96.8 billion USD by 2025 [4] Group 3 - Shaoguan is the only node in South China for the "East Data West Computing" initiative, with 22 intelligent computing center projects and a total investment of 62.1 billion yuan as of the end of 2024 [5] - The city plans to establish 500,000 standard racks and 5 million servers by 2025, with an investment exceeding 50 billion yuan, significantly enhancing the computing power capacity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [5] - Langke Technology, backed by the Shaoguan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, is expected to become a strategic investment hub in the region's computing power layout [5] Group 4 - The company's main storage business is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in industry demand, with projected revenues of 0.851 billion, 1.046 billion, and 1.301 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, and net profits of -0.031 billion, 0.146 billion, and 0.217 billion yuan respectively [6] - The report assigns a price-to-sales ratio (PS) of 6, 5, and 4 for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [6]

Group 1: Express Delivery Industry Insights - The express delivery industry is focusing on cost reduction at the terminal stage, with significant potential for cost control as terminal delivery costs account for 60.64% of total costs in 2024 for companies like YTO Express [3][4] - Cost elasticity is high for express delivery companies; for instance, a 0.1 CNY increase in per parcel profit for Zhongtong Express could lead to an additional 34 million CNY in performance, indicating a 34% elasticity [4] - Various cost reduction measures are being explored by express companies, including the use of collection points, direct delivery models, and the introduction of unmanned vehicles for deliveries [4][5] Group 2: Unmanned Vehicle Implementation - The use of unmanned vehicles is gaining traction, with companies like Zhongtong Express and SF Express investing heavily in this technology, aiming to reduce delivery costs significantly [8][9] - Cost reduction potential is substantial; for instance, using unmanned vehicles could lower the transportation cost per parcel from 0.16 CNY to 0.05 CNY, achieving a 69% reduction [9] - The regulatory environment is becoming more favorable for unmanned vehicles, with many cities granting road rights, which is expected to accelerate the adoption of this technology [6][7] Group 3: Agricultural Chemical Market Dynamics - Glyphosate prices have increased, with the current price at 24,800 CNY per ton, reflecting a recovery in demand and inventory depletion in the industry [17][18] - The glyphosate industry is experiencing a demand recovery, with significant inventory reduction observed, dropping by 43,000 tons since April 2025 [19] - The potential bankruptcy of Bayer's glyphosate production could benefit domestic competitors, as Bayer holds a 32% global market share [20][21] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Glyphosate - The report highlights several key companies in the glyphosate market, such as Jiangshan Chemical and Xingfa Group, which are well-positioned to benefit from the industry's recovery [22][23] - The overall outlook for the agricultural chemical sector is positive, with expectations of continued profit recovery for companies involved in glyphosate production [21] Group 5: Photovoltaic Equipment Industry Developments - The photovoltaic equipment industry is witnessing advancements in perovskite solar cells, with significant efficiency improvements reported by various manufacturers [26][27] - The industry is entering a phase of large-scale production, with at least three GW-level production lines expected to be operational by 2025 [26] - Investment opportunities are emerging in the perovskite equipment sector, with a focus on suppliers of key manufacturing equipment [29]

Core Insights - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the agricultural chemical industry, highlighting the recovery potential in the pesticide market due to rising glyphosate prices [1][8] - Glyphosate prices have shown a significant recovery, with the raw material price reaching 24,800 CNY per ton as of July 1, 2025, an increase of 1,800 CNY per ton since early April [6][8] Industry Performance - The basic chemical industry has outperformed the CSI 300 index over various time frames, with a 1-month performance of 5.0%, 3-month performance of 3.2%, and a 12-month performance of 16.4% compared to the CSI 300's 2.7%, 1.5%, and 13.6% respectively [4] Investment Highlights - The glyphosate industry is experiencing inventory depletion and demand recovery, leading to a price rebound from its bottom. As of June 27, 2025, glyphosate industry inventory was 40,000 tons, down 43,000 tons since early April [6] - The global largest glyphosate producer, Bayer, faces potential bankruptcy due to ongoing lawsuits related to its glyphosate product "Roundup," which could benefit domestic competitors in the glyphosate market [7] Company Focus - Key companies in the glyphosate sector include: - Jiangshan Chemical, with a production capacity of 70,000 tons/year [9] - Xingfa Group, the leading domestic glyphosate producer with a capacity of 230,000 tons/year [9] - Xin'an Chemical, with a capacity of 80,000 tons/year [10] - Yangnong Chemical, a major player with a capacity of 30,000 tons/year [10] - Guoxin Co., with a capacity of 20,000 tons/year [10] - Hebang Bio, with a capacity of 50,000 tons/year [10] - Lier Chemical, with a capacity of 18,500 tons/year [10] - Limin Co., with a capacity of 5,000 tons of glyphosate and 2,000 tons of refined glyphosate [10] Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates for key companies, indicating potential growth in profitability: - Jiangshan Chemical: EPS of 1.10 CNY in 2025E [11] - Xingfa Group: EPS of 1.85 CNY in 2025E [11] - Yangnong Chemical: EPS of 3.44 CNY in 2025E [11] - Guoxin Co.: EPS of 1.12 CNY in 2025E [11] - Lier Chemical: EPS of 0.53 CNY in 2025E [11] - Limin Co.: EPS of 1.05 CNY in 2025E [11]

Group 1 - The report highlights the robust performance of Bosideng, with FY2025 group revenue reaching 25.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, and a net profit of 3.51 billion RMB, up 14.3% year-on-year [3][4] - The gross margin for Bosideng was 57.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points, while the net margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 13.6% [4] - The brand's down jacket business generated revenue of 21.67 billion RMB, representing an 11% increase year-on-year, accounting for 83.7% of total revenue [4] Group 2 - The report indicates a continuous optimization of channel quality and improvement in store operational efficiency, with a total of 2,421 Bosideng brand stores as of March 31, 2025, an increase of 135 stores year-on-year [5] - Online revenue for Bosideng's brand down jackets increased by 9.4% to 7.48 billion RMB, solidifying its leading position in the market [5] - The company effectively managed expenses, with distribution expenses accounting for 32.9% of revenue, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [6] Group 3 - The report discusses the rising prices of ketone, propylene, and aniline, with ketone prices increasing by 10.27% to 7,250 RMB/ton [17] - The chromium salt market is highlighted as a key area of focus, with expectations of continued demand growth driven by various industries [9] - The supply-demand tension in phosphate rock is expected to persist, with significant expansions planned by companies like Batian Co., which aims to increase its phosphate rock production capacity [10] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the high demand in the pet industry, with the market expected to reach 300.2 billion RMB by 2024, particularly in the pet medical sector [49] - The report suggests that the pig farming sector may experience a price and policy turning point, with recommendations for companies with low costs and strong expansion capabilities [47] - The poultry industry is expected to see price improvements due to a shortage of quality breeding sources, with recommendations for companies like San Nong Development [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting signaled a shift towards domestic demand. The 10Y treasury bond is expected to remain volatile as the downward space for interest rates is not yet open due to limited liquidity and potential fiscal policy impacts [2][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Policy Anchor and Bond Market Trends - **Policy Tone Changes**: In terms of economic situation, domestic economic expectations are more positive, but deflation concerns increase, and external demand contraction pressure rises. Monetary policy enters an observation period. Exchange - rate pressure eases, and policy flexibility increases. Financing support focuses more on domestic demand [10][11][13]. - **Summary**: The meeting emphasizes domestic demand. For the bond market, short - term liquidity is limited, and fiscal policy may cause disturbances, so the 10Y treasury bond is likely to oscillate [2][18]. 2. Institutional Bond Custody No specific content analysis provided in the given text, only mentions of relevant figures about institutional bond custody amounts [19][22][24]. 3. Institutional Fund Tracking - **Fund Price**: Near the end of the quarter, liquidity tightened. R007 closed at 1.92%, up 33BP from last week; DR007 closed at 1.70%, up 20BP; the 6 - month national stock transfer discount rate closed at 1.20%, up 10BP [3][27]. - **Financing Situation**: The balance of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased by 0.4% to 126902.2 billion yuan. Fund companies and bank wealth management had net financing of - 351.4 billion yuan and 1672.6 billion yuan respectively [30]. 4. Quantitative Tracking of Institutional Behavior - **Fund Duration**: The durations of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and general interest - rate bond funds increased by 0.11 and 0.05 respectively compared to last week [40]. - **"Asset Scarcity" Index**: The index decreased, indicating looser liquidity, lower credit - bond supply, and higher credit - bond demand [48]. - **Institutional Behavior Trading Signals**: Trading signals for secondary capital bonds, ultra - long treasury bonds, and 10Y local bonds are provided, with gray areas indicating bullish signals [50][51][55]. - **Institutional Leverage**: The overall market leverage ratio remained basically unchanged at 108.0%. Insurance, fund, and brokerage leverage ratios changed by +4.8, +0.8, and - 1.2 percentage points respectively [58]. - **Bank Self - Investment Comparison Table**: Compares nominal yields, tax costs, and returns after considering tax and risk capital for different investment options [62]. 5. Asset Management Product Data Tracking - **Fund**: Information on weekly fund establishment scale and 2025 fund yield distribution is presented [64]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: The overall market product break - even rate decreased slightly to 1.7% [65]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Trend Tracking Tracks the inter - period spread trend and the basis level of the next - quarter T contract [73]. 7. General Asset Management Pattern Shows the scale changes of general asset management, including public funds and bank wealth management [77][80].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, suggesting a focus on high-quality stocks with stable growth and reasonable valuations, particularly in the context of the North Exchange [3][5]. Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a significant increase of 100.53% over the past year, indicating strong market performance compared to other indices [2][10]. - The report highlights the recent listing of Guangxin Technology, which specializes in high-pressure transformers and insulation materials, projecting a revenue of 578 million yuan and a net profit of 116 million yuan for 2024 [27][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with stable performance and growth potential, particularly in sectors such as power equipment, computing, and communication, which have shown strong performance recently [21][27]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of June 27, 2025, the North Exchange A-share component stocks totaled 268, with an average market capitalization of 3.139 billion yuan. The North Exchange 50 Index rose by 6.84% during the week [10][15]. - The trading volume increased, with an average daily turnover of 34.049 billion yuan, up 18.09% from the previous week [24][25]. New Stock Updates - Guangxin Technology was listed on June 26, 2025, focusing on high-pressure and ultra-high-pressure transformer products, with a significant growth trajectory in revenue and profit from 2021 to 2024 [27][28]. - The report notes that one company, Aomeisen, passed the review this week, while another, Jinhua New Materials, is scheduled for review next week [33]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report identifies several key companies with their respective earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, recommending "Buy" for Tongli Co. and Wuxin Tunnel Equipment, and "Hold" for Kaide Quartz and Hualing Co. [5][34]. - For instance, Tongli Co. is projected to have an EPS of 1.99 in 2025 with a PE ratio of 10.84, indicating strong investment potential [5].