更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 27 日星期四 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周三螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘继续收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、2025 年 11 月中旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存量 1561 万吨，环比上一旬增加 12 万吨，增长 0.8%；比年初增加 324 万吨，增长 26.3%；比上月同旬减少 97 万吨， 下降 5.9%；比去年同旬增加 6 万吨，增长 0.4%，比前年同旬增加 28 万吨，增长 1.8%。 2、据中钢协网站消息，11 月 26 日，有 5 家钢企进行超低排放改造和评估监测进展 情况公示，为河南闽源钢铁集团有限公司、福建青拓镍业有限公司、福建青拓新材 料有限公司、福建青拓实业股份有限公司、四川盛泉钢铁集团有限公司。截至目前， 已有 230 家钢铁企业在中钢协网站进行公示。 | | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Precious metals are expected to experience short - term wide - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4196.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.13% to $53.76 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.37% at 949.34 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.73% to 12450 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2 Important Information - As of November 26, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, were 1045.43 tons, an increase of 4.57 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained unchanged from the previous day at 15582.33 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 84.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 15.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 66.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 11.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.6% [1]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 216,000, the lowest since the week of April 12, 2025. The forecast was 225,000, and the previous value was revised from 220,000 to 222,000. Although the number of initial jobless claims was stable, the number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week climbed slightly to 1.96 million, indicating that it is becoming more difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs [1]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activity changed little during the more than one - month period covering the government shutdown. Tariff pressures squeezed corporate profits, AI suppressed some recruitment demand, and retailers reported that the government shutdown had a negative impact on consumption [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - The US core PPI in September increased 2.6% year - on - year, less than the expected 2.7% growth; the US retail sales in September increased 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%. ADP weekly data showed that private enterprises reduced an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, more than the 2,500 jobs lost per week shown in the previous update a week ago. The latest weak economic data has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. On November 26, the US dollar index fell and closed at 99.59. Overnight, COMEX gold fluctuated horizontally, while COMEX silver rose sharply. Precious metals may fluctuate slightly more in the short term [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "Oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoints - The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly opened flat on Wednesday, with the 30 - year contract opening much lower and all contracts declining throughout the day. The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the macro - economy in the fourth quarter. Treasury bond futures may open higher today, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly opened flat, with the 30 - year contract TL2603 opening much lower. By the close, TL2603 fell 0.86%, T2603 fell 0.36%, TF2603 fell 0.22%, and TS2603 fell 0.05%. The Wande All - A index opened slightly lower, rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon, closing up 0.25% with a trading volume of 1.80 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous trading day's 1.83 trillion yuan [3][4] Important Information - Open market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 213.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 310.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 97.2 billion yuan [3] - Money market: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (previous day: 1.32%), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (previous day: 1.45%) [3] - Cash bond market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds rose compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year yield rose 0.42 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 1.84 BP to 1.62%, the 10 - year rose 1.61 BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 1.75 BP to 2.19% [3] - Policy: On November 25th, six departments issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027 and form a high - quality development pattern by 2030 [3] Market Logic - Unemployment rates for certain age groups are higher than last year, indicating that efforts to stabilize growth and employment are still needed. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of November increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and its imports from China increased by 5.6%, suggesting good export prospects for China in November. The overall inflation level in China remains moderate, and the decline in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities has widened, with housing prices still bottoming out [3] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The global economic investment rating is (turning weak) [1] 2. Report's Core View - The so - called AI bubble is unlikely to exist in the next three years, and the market's long - standing "AI trading" logic has changed significantly. The AI industry is shifting from "scaling up" to the "research era." The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly. The US economy shows signs of weakening, with slow retail sales growth, accelerated private enterprise job cuts, and an emerging burden - of - cost crisis on the consumer side. The global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Important Information - AI - related: Industry leaders like the CEO of Alibaba suggest that new and previous generations of GPUs are fully utilized, indicating no AI bubble in the next three years. Google's full - stack innovation creates a multiplier effect, and about 5 years later, people will be excited about quantum technology. The market's "AI trading" logic has changed, with "Google chain" stocks rising and "OpenAI chain" stocks falling. The era of AI breakthroughs by "scaling up" is over, and the industry is moving towards a "research era" [1] - Economic - related: Goldman Sachs launched a new portfolio GSXUPROD with non - tech companies integrating AI. US retail sales in September increased only 0.2%, far below expectations, and consumer confidence dropped. ADP data shows private enterprises are laying off more employees, increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. US PPI rose in September, indicating a resurgence of inflation. Musk is promoting an AI - replacing - human strategy [1][2] 3.2 Global Economic Logic - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to 80%. Google plans to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years. The CEO of NVIDIA believes China will win the AI competition. The construction of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion, and US data center planning capacity has increased. US stock market retail participation is accelerating. US economic indicators such as retail sales and employment are weakening, and the global economy is entering the top - region due to US policies [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is bearish [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall sentiment in the coking coal and coke market remains bearish. The coking coal spot auction has been mediocre, and downstream procurement is cautious during the period of falling spot prices. The coke market has a certain expectation of price cuts, so the double - coking products are still regarded as bearish in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2601 closed at 1086.0, a 0.96% decline compared to the opening of the day session. The main coke contract J2601 closed at 1643.0, a 0.64% increase compared to the opening of the day session. During the night session, Jm2601 closed at 1062.5, a 1.75% decline compared to the close of the day session, and the J2601 contract closed at 1593.5, a 3.01% decline compared to the close of the day session [1] 3.2 Important Information - Local government special bonds are experiencing a peak in issuance for investment in government - funded funds. Guangdong Province, Sichuan Province, and Shanghai will issue a total of 20 billion yuan in special bonds on November 28, which will be injected into the Guangdong Provincial Government Investment Fund, Chengdu Venture Capital Fund, and Shanghai Future Industry Fund respectively. Coupled with the more than 60 billion yuan of relevant special bonds issued in many places before, the total scale of local government special bonds invested in government - funded funds currently disclosed will exceed 80 billion yuan [1] - Recently, the "Work Plan for the Classification and Disposal of Coal Mines below 600,000 Tons/Year in Shaanxi Province" was issued, which mentioned accelerating the classification and disposal of coal mines below 600,000 tons/year and guiding the closure and exit of coal mines with exhausted resources and those without safe production conditions [1] - As of November 21, the daily coal consumption of 493 power plant samples nationwide was 4.091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 122,000 tons. The total on - site coal inventory was 101.691 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.215 million tons, and the available days were 24.9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 days [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Affected by the snowfall at the Ganqimaodu Port, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has declined. The sentiment has led to a slight rebound in the day - session market. However, the recent coking coal spot auction has been mediocre, and downstream procurement is cautious during the period of falling spot prices. The overall sentiment remains bearish. The coke market has a certain expectation of price cuts, so the double - coking products are still regarded as bearish in the short term [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - After the main coking coal contract rebounds and meets resistance, it falls back. The lower support is at 1050 for the Jm2601 contract and 1150 for the Jm2605 contract. It is regarded as weakly volatile in the short term [1]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 26 日星期周三 | | | 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 11 月 24 日，需求疲弱，垒库预期上升，马棕榈油走弱，连棕榈油领跌植物油板块。 豆油主力合约 Y2601 合约报收于 8090 元/吨，按收盘价日环下跌 0.66%，日减仓 1345 | | | | | 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 7890 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.70%，日增 | | | | | 仓 1079 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2601 合约收盘价 8360 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.48%，日增 | | | | | 仓 1873 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2605 报收于 8442 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.52%，日增仓 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Group 2: Report's Core View - The macroeconomic theme in the fourth quarter is still stable growth. Influenced by the overnight rise in US stocks and the positive news of the phone call between Chinese and US leaders, the Wande All - A Index opened higher on Tuesday, rose in the morning and then fluctuated and declined slightly, closing 1.24% higher than the previous trading day with a trading volume of 1.83 trillion yuan. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts corrected on Tuesday, while the medium - and short - term contracts were basically flat. The central bank released 1000 billion yuan in long - term funds through MLF, and the capital side is relatively loose. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the Treasury bond futures' main contracts opened roughly flat, with the 30 - year contract opening significantly lower. It rose in the morning and fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures' main contract TL2603 fell 0.33%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 was flat, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.01% [1] Important Information - **Open Market**: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations. With 407.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 5.4 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45%, down from 1.47% in the previous trading day [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly rose slightly compared with the previous trading day. The yield of the 2 - year Treasury bond fell 0.13 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 0.75 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year rose 0.91 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year rose 1.65 BP to 2.18% [1] - **US Economic Data**: US PPI in September increased 2.7% year - on - year (expected 2.7%, previous 2.6%), 0.3% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous - 0.1%); core PPI increased 2.6% year - on - year (expected 2.7%, previous 2.8%). US retail sales in September increased 0.2% month - on - month (expected 0.4%, previous 0.60%). ADP weekly data on Tuesday showed more signs of weakness in the US labor market, with the pace of layoffs accelerating in the past four weeks. On average, private enterprises cut 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, up from 2,500 jobs per week in the previous update a week ago [1] Market Logic - In October, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group (excluding students) in urban areas was 17.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and that of the 25 - 29 age group was 7.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Stable growth and employment still need to be strengthened. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of November increased 8.2% year - on - year, and its imports from China increased 5.6% year - on - year, indicating good export prospects for China in November. The wholesale prices of agricultural products fluctuated narrowly in mid - November, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined slightly, and the overall inflation level in China remained moderate. The year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities widened in mid - November, and housing prices continued to bottom out. The latest macroeconomic data shows that stable growth is still the main line of the fourth - quarter macroeconomy [1][2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has soared to 80% as several Fed governors signaled dovish stances [1][2]. - The global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies [2]. - AI investment contributed nearly half of the US GDP growth in the first half of the year, and without the AI boom, the economy might have slipped into recession [1]. - The capital expenditure of the top five tech giants in 2026 is estimated to have soared to $533 billion, and the construction boom of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Important Information - Fed officials including Mary Daly, John Williams, and Christopher Waller advocated for a December rate cut, causing the market's rate - cut bets to surge from 40% to 80% [1]. - Investment giants like Gundlach and Dalio advised holding physical gold as a defense, warning that debt - driven asset prices are far from real values and may lead to an economic collapse [1]. - AI investment contributed nearly half of the US GDP growth in the first half of the year, and a slump in AI stock prices or a slowdown in investment could trigger a recession [1]. - The US President launched the "Genesis Plan" to use AI to transform scientific research, and the Energy Department will create an AI experimental platform [1]. - Tesla's AI5 chip is in the tape - out stage, and the R & D of AI6 has started, with a goal to launch a new generation of AI chip design every 12 months [1]. - Google is promoting TPU chips to large customers, which have lower development costs and power consumption compared to NVIDIA GPUs [1]. - Amazon will invest up to $50 billion to expand AI and super - computing capabilities for the US government in 2026, adding nearly 1.3 gigawatts of computing power [1]. - The US government plans to invest $80 billion in restarting nuclear power construction, aiming to build 8 reactors at four locations and control the single - unit cost at $10 billion [1]. - Anthropic released the Claude Opus 4.5 model, which outperformed Gemini 3 Pro and GPT - 5.1 in programming evaluations [2]. 3.2 Global Economic Logic - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased to 80%, and Google aims to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years [2]. - Foreign capital has shifted from the South Korean stock market to China's technology sector [2]. - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2]. - The capital expenditure of the five major tech giants in 2026 is estimated to reach $533 billion, and the construction of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion [2]. - The planned capacity of US data centers has surged to 245 gigawatts, and developers are building their own power plants in energy - producing areas [2]. - US stock market retailization is accelerating, with retail investors being one of the largest net buyers this year, especially in the options market [2]. - US household excess savings accumulated during the pandemic have been mostly exhausted, and consumer slowdown has spread to the middle - income group [2]. - Unemployment among 25 - year - old and above with at least a bachelor's degree in the US exceeded 1.9 million in September, and large - scale layoffs by companies may be an economic warning [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly, leading to a sharp rise in the Nasdaq. On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and then fluctuated upwards. It is expected that the main indices of the two markets will continue to rise, and long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index for range trading. For stock index options, with the index in a wide - range fluctuation state, it is advisable to be cautious with out - of - the - money long - term call options before the end of the year [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly, and the Nasdaq soared. On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and then fluctuated upwards, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.81 trillion yuan, showing a moderate increase. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4490, up 42 points or 0.95%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2968 points, up 17 points or 0.60%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6954 points, up 85 points or 1.25%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7249 points, up 93 points or 1.31%. Among industry and theme ETFs, the top gainers were 5G ETF, Gaming ETF, etc., and the top losers were Aerospace ETF, Military Leading ETF, etc. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the top gainers were Gaming, Components, etc., and the top losers were Fishery, Military Trade Concept, etc. The net inflow of settled funds in the CSI 500 Index stock index futures was 2.5 billion yuan [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations on November 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan, increasing the volume for the 9th consecutive month [1]. - Fed officials such as Mary Daly and John Williams voiced support for a December rate cut, and the market's bet on a rate cut soared from 40% to 80% [1]. - Traders' bullish sentiment towards the offshore RMB has reached a 14 - year high, while the RMB spot fluctuated narrowly and the implied volatility decreased [1]. - BofA Merrill Lynch believes that China's actual consumption volume is not low globally. The real constraint on China's consumption performance is the extremely low price level and structural competition pressure, rather than insufficient absolute consumption volume. The real potential lies in consumption upgrading [1]. - Tesla's AI5 chip has entered the tape - out stage, and the R & D of the AI6 chip has started. The company aims to launch a new generation of AI chip design every 12 months and expects its chip shipments to exceed the sum of all other AI chips [1]. - Amazon will invest up to $50 billion to expand AI and super - computing capabilities for the US government, starting construction in 2026 [2]. - Google is promoting the deployment of TPU chips in its own data centers to large customers, aiming to expand the AI chip market. TPU chips have lower development costs and power consumption [2]. - The US President signed an executive order to launch the "Genesis Project" to transform scientific research with AI [2]. - The US government plans to invest $80 billion to restart nuclear power construction, betting on Westinghouse Electric's AP1000 large - reactor technology [2]. - Anthropic released its flagship model Claude Opus 4.5, which is significantly enhanced in automated programming and other aspects and will become the default model for all products [2]. - OpenAI released an optimized shopping search function based on the GPT - 5 - Thinking - mini model, which can be used almost unlimitedly and for free by all users before the holidays [2]. - Investment giants such as Gundlach and Dalio suggest holding physical gold as a defense, warning that debt - driven asset prices are seriously divorced from real values [2]. - AI investment contributed nearly half of the US GDP growth in the first half of the year. Analysts warn that a slump in AI stocks or a slowdown in investment may trigger a recession [2]. - The global copper processing fee has fallen below $20 per ton, hitting a 10 - year low, and the annual benchmark pricing system is facing reconstruction [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly, and the Nasdaq soared. On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and then fluctuated upwards. 16 hard - tech products were quickly approved on November 21, sending a positive signal from regulatory authorities. From January to October this year, the total inflow of overseas funds into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion, far exceeding the $11.4 billion in 2024. Foreign capital has shifted its allocation to the Chinese technology sector. Morgan Stanley expects the Chinese stock market to rise further in 2026, and NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes that China will win the AI competition [1][2][3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - After a sharp decline, the overseas market has recovered. The main indices of the two markets fluctuated at a low level on Monday, with growth - style indices being relatively strong. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to 80%. Google plans to double its AI computing power every 6 months and increase it by 1000 times in the next 4 - 5 years. Tesla's AI chips are making progress. Traders' bullish sentiment towards the offshore RMB has reached a 14 - year high. Overseas funds have been flowing into the Chinese stock market, and the Chinese technology sector has become a major destination for foreign capital. It is expected that the Chinese stock market will have a good year in 2026. The main indices of the two markets are expected to continue to rise [1][2][3]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Stock index futures directional trading: With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December rising to 80%, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and fluctuated upwards on Tuesday. It is expected that the main indices will continue to rise. Long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index for range trading [3]. - Stock index option trading: With the index in a wide - range fluctuation state, it is advisable to be cautious with out - of - the - money long - term call options before the end of the year [3].

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 26 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | | 进入低位震荡磨底阶段。若排除疫病影响，明年9月之前生猪供给仍将持续兑现；长 | | --- | --- | | | 期来看，10月能繁母猪存栏降幅明显，对应明年9月后供给压力或有所减弱，若母猪 | | | 存栏持续下降，可关注明年9月之后的低多机会。 | | | 【交易策略】 | | | 现货继续磨底，近月合约震荡修复、交易基差修复逻辑，短期弱势延续；中长期等 | | | 待养殖端去产能的执行效果，远月合约交易政策驱动下的去产能预期差，10月能繁 | | | 母猪存栏减幅扩大，若母猪存栏持续下降，可关注明年9月份之后的低多机会。 | | | 2601合约短线压力关注11500-11600，支撑关注11000-11200；2603合约短线压力关 | | | 注11400-11500，支撑关注11200是否有效，若有效跌破支撑则有望打开进一步下跌 | | | 空间；2605合约短线压力关注12000-12100,支撑关 ...