格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 26 日星期三 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.78%报 4126.3 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.50%报 51.08 美 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.45%报 945.76 元/克，沪银涨 0.76%报 12103 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 11 月 25 日，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 1040.86 吨， 较前一个交易日维持不变。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 增加 70.52 吨，当前持仓量为 15582.33 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 84.9% ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 25 日星期二 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR601 合约收盘价 5370 元/吨，日涨幅 0.32%。夜盘收于 5377 元/吨；SR605 合约收盘价 5319 元/吨，日涨幅 0.32%。夜盘收于 5319 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1.昨日 ICE 原糖主力合约收盘价 14.85 美分/磅，日涨幅 0.54%。 2.昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 5374 元/吨，下跌 5 元/吨；广西新糖报价 5590~5650 元/吨，个别集团下调 60 元/吨；云南制糖集团陈糖报价 5350~5400 元/吨，新糖报 价 5300~5500 元/吨，下调 70 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5750~5890 元/吨， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 | 白糖 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 25 日星期二 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 铁矿: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周一夜盘铁矿收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、今年 1 至 10 月，国家铁路累计发送货物 33.78 亿吨，同比增长 3%，创历史同期 | | | | | 新高；日均装车 18.6 万车，同比增长 4%，为降低全社会物流成本、保障国民经济 | | | | | 平稳运行提供了有力支撑。 | | | | | 2、根据克拉克森最新数据统计（截至 2025 年 11 月 9 日），2025 年 10 月份全球新 | | | | | 签订单 134 艘，共计 2,920,231CGT。与 2025 年 9 月份全球新签订单 185 艘，共计 | ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 25 日 星期二 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | 1、谷歌 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘多数高开，早盘回落，午后横向波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2512 下跌 0.31%，10 年期 T2512 下跌 0.04%，5 年期 TF2512 下跌 0.06%，2 年期 TS2512 持平。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：上周五央行开展了 3750 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 2128 亿元 逆回购到期，当日净投放 1622 亿元。 2、资金市场：上周五银行间资金市场隔夜利率回落到近期低位，DR001 全天加权平 均为 1.32%，上一交易日加权平均 1.37%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.44%，上一交易 日加权平 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, with the upper pressure level of the main 2601 contract at 810 and the support level at 750 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Iron ore closed down on Friday and up at night [3] Important Information - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized putting urban renewal in a more prominent position - The National Energy Administration reported that the total social electricity consumption in October was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in the country was 51.56%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.14 percentage points. The profit situation of these steel mills was as follows: 16.53% had small profits, 46.28% had flat profits (partly due to production suspension), and 37.19% were in the red [3] Market Logic - The fundamentals changed little. The production of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and five major steel products increased last week. Electric furnace steel was still losing money even during off - peak electricity hours. The current daily hot metal output was 236,280 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons, and it was expected to drop below 230,000 tons. The iron ore port inventory at 45 ports was 150.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 750,000 tons. Domestic iron ore arrivals were low, but shipments were active. Foreign port inventories were at the highest level since the fourth quarter [3] Trading Strategy - It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term. The upper pressure level of the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [3]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 11 月 21 日，美豆油生柴政策反复，印度进口棕榈油数据拉胯，棕榈油破位下跌拖 | | | | | 累连盘植物油整体回落。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约Y2601合约报收于8190元/吨，按收盘价日环下跌0.41%，日减仓20453 | | | | | 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 7982 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.84%，日增 | | | | | 仓 14567 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2601 合约收盘价 8550 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.11%，日增 | | | | | 仓 9248 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2605 报收于 8668 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.19%，日减仓 | | | | ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 债市延续横盘震荡 2025年11月21日 今年一季度30大中城市的商品房日均成交面积23.6万平米，同比增长2.5%。二季度30大中城市的商品房日均成交 面积26.5万平米，同比下降7.9%。今年三季度30大中城市商品房日均成交面积日均成交面积22万平米，同比下降 8%。10月30大中城市的商品房日均成交面积24万平米，同比下降27%，11月1日-20日日均成交面积23万平米，同 比下降32%。10月、11月同比下降幅度扩大是因为去年同期基数较高。全国商品房销售仍在磨底过程中。 本周国债期货多数主力合约延续上周的横盘震荡，仅30年期品种回调较多，全周收盘30年国债收跌0.43%，10年 国债涨0.04%，5年国债持平，2年国债涨0.01%。 国债期货一周行情复盘 数据来源：wind，格林大华 国债现券到期收益率曲线变动 11月21日收盘国债现券到期收益率曲线与11月14日相比总体变化不 ...

Report Title - Corn Bullish in the Short Term, Maintain Low-Buying Strategy; Pig Prices Grinding at the Bottom, Weak Oscillation in the Futures Market; Egg Spot Prices Oscillating at Low Levels, Near-Term Contracts Gaining Premium [2] Report Core Views - Corn is bullish in the short term, and the low-buying strategy remains unchanged. Pig prices are grinding at the bottom, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. Egg spot prices are oscillating at low levels, and near-term contracts are gaining premium [2][4][9][14] Corn Futures Important Information - Deep-processing enterprises' purchase prices in the Northeast and North China regions increased slightly, with the Northeast at 2036 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton) and North China at 2263 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton) [4] - On the 21st, the price in the northern port was weakly stable, and the southern port was relatively strong. The purchase price of second-grade new-season corn with 15% moisture at Jinzhou Port was about 2170 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton), and the transaction price at Shekou Port was 2350 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [4] - On the 21st, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 573 to 68,764 [4] - The cost-effectiveness of corn for feed increased. As of November 20th, the wheat-corn price difference in Shandong was +280 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan/ton [4] - In October 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 360,000 tons, the highest this year, with a year-on-year increase of 44%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.31 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 90.02% [4] Market Logic - Short term: Spot prices are under pressure from concentrated supply but supported by warehouse purchases. After the seasonal selling pressure is released, prices are expected to stabilize and rise. Attention should be paid to the impact of continuous rain in North China on yield and grain quality [4] - Medium term: Conduct band trading around the new-season corn drivers, considering factors such as farmers' selling sentiment and downstream inventory building. Maintain a wide-range trading strategy [4] - Long term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, with a focus on policy guidance [4] Trading Strategy - Medium and long term: Maintain a range trading strategy; short term: Maintain the short-term low-buying strategy. For the 2601 contract, support is at 2150 - 2160, and the first resistance is at 2200. If it breaks through 2200, the resistance moves up to 2220 - 2230 [5] Pig Futures Important Information - On the 21st, the national average pig price was 11.58 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. On the 22nd, prices in different regions were expected to be stable or slightly increase [9] - In September 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%, still 103.46% of the normal level. The number of new-born piglets in the first half of the year was at a historical high, and the number in September continued to increase month-on-month, indicating an expected increase in pig supply before March next year [9] - As of November 20th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.77 kg, an increase of 0.04 kg from the previous week [9] - On November 20th, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.35 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [9] - The China National Grain and Oils Information Center announced that from November 24th to 27th, a total of 9,000 tons of central frozen pork will be purchased and 9,000 tons will be sold [9] Market Logic - Short term: Farmers' willingness to hold back sales is increasing, and downstream consumption has improved due to the drop in temperature, leading to a halt in price decline. However, the short-term supply-demand imbalance persists, limiting the upside potential of prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of short-term purchases on market sentiment and the winter epidemic prevention situation [9] - Medium term: The increase in the number of new-born piglets from February to September (except in July) indicates an expected increase in pig supply before March next year, restricting price increases. Pig prices are in a low-level oscillation phase [9] - Long term: The number of fertile sows is still above the normal level, and production efficiency has increased year-on-year. If there is no major epidemic, the full-year pig production capacity will continue to be realized [9] Trading Strategy - Spot prices continue to grind at the bottom. Near-term contracts are oscillating to repair the basis. Short term: The price may break through the previous low and weaken further; Medium and long term: Wait for the effectiveness of farmers' capacity reduction. Far-term contracts are trading based on the expected difference in capacity reduction driven by policies. Pay attention to the actual change in the number of sows. Do not be overly bullish on far-term contracts before significant sow reduction [10] Egg Futures Important Information - On the 21st, the national egg price was stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.26 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin [14] - In October, the number of laying hens in production was about 1.359 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.66% and a year-on-year increase of 5.59%. The estimated number of laying hens in November is 1.36 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.07% [15] Market Logic - Short term: Egg prices are under pressure but also supported. The number of culled hens has increased, slightly relieving the supply pressure. However, the high number of laying hens in production and the rising inventory limit the upside potential. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16] - Medium term: The supply-demand imbalance is difficult to reverse completely. The limited reduction in the age of culled hens and the incomplete release of supply pressure, combined with weak downstream consumption, suggest that prices may continue to trade in a low range. Attention should be paid to the scale and intensity of culling driven by low prices [16] - Long term: The continuous expansion of egg production scale may prolong the price bottoming period. Wait patiently for the capacity reduction process driven by over-culling [16] Trading Strategy - It was suggested in the morning report on Wednesday to gradually close out previous short positions. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. Next week, continue to pay attention to the opportunity to trade the premium of near-term contracts after the price rallies [16] - Medium and long term: Focus on whether the culling behavior driven by low prices can be sustained and whether it can lead to actual capacity reduction. As of now, the capacity cannot be cleared before the second quarter of next year, and supply pressure remains. Whether the second quarter can be a turning point depends on the culling situation in the first quarter [16]