Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 6.46%报 5411.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 10.06%报 116.62 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约上涨 3.36%报 1196.8 元/克，沪银主力合约上涨 1.46%报 28885 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 28 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 2.58 吨， | | | | | 当前持仓量为 1089.96 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 211.42 吨，当前持仓量为 15636.12 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 13.5%，维持利 | | | | | 率不变的概率为 86.5%。美联储到 4 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 24.1%，维持利 | | ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格上涨 81 元至 6148 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 格 6020 元/吨（环比+70），山东地区现货价格 5957 元/吨（环比+16）。持仓方面， 多头增加 1493 手至 2.26 万手，空头减少 889 手至 2.67 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | -- ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 29 日星期四 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 ICE3 月合约结算价 63.73 跌 10 点，5 月 65.46 涨 1 点，7 月 67.10 涨 9 点；成交 约 6.5 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 郑棉总成交 766247 持仓 1131663。结算价 5 月 14755，9 月 14870，1 月 15270。 【重要资讯】 1、1 月 23 日新疆巴州区域机采棉 3129B 含杂 2.5%以内对应 2605 合约疆内库销 售基差在 1030-1080 元/吨,提货价在 15730-15780 元/吨，较昨日上涨 100 元/吨 | | | | | 左右。 | | | | | 2 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘涨跌参半、大致平开，全天横向波动、小幅上涨，截至 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 上涨 | 0.07%，10 | 年期 | T2603 | 上涨 | 0.05%，5 | 年期 | TF2603 | 上涨 | 0.06%，2 | 年期 | TS2603 | 上涨 | 0.01%。 | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

联系方式：15000295386 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘瓶片主力价格上涨 2 元至 6288 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6350 元/吨 （+50），华南瓶片价格 6380 元/吨（+80）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 1617 手至 6.14 万手，空头持仓增加 643 手至 6.52 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震 荡 偏 | 【重要资讯】 30.46 万吨，环比-2.07 万吨。 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 65.7%，环比-4.4%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5543 元， 环比-45 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-40 元/吨，环比+58 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 5 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 品种 | | --- | | 多（空） 推荐理由 | | 板块 | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周三螺纹热卷收跌。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1、生态环境部："十四五"期间累计完成 9.4 亿吨粗钢产能、1.7 亿千瓦煤电机组 | | | | | 超低排放改造。 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 2、国家能源局：截至 2025 年底全国累计发电装机容量 38.9 亿千瓦，同比增 16.1%。 3、据产业在线最新发布的三大白电排产报告显示，2026 年 2 月空冰洗排产合计总 | | | | | 量共计 2379 万台，较去年同期生产实绩下降 22.1%。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | 周三钢材价格持平。随着 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1134.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 1.61%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1684.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.96%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、1 月 28 日，河北、天津地区部分钢厂对焦炭采购价格进行首轮上调，湿熄焦上调 50 | | | | | 元/吨，干熄焦上调 55 元/吨，2026 年 1 月 30 日零点执行。 | | | | | 2、国家能源局数据显示，截至 2025 年底，全国累计发电装机容量 38.9 亿千瓦，同比 | | | 焦煤、 | | 增长 16.1%。 | | 黑色 | 焦炭 | 区间震荡 | 3、本周，Mysteel 统计 314 家独立洗煤厂样本产能利用率为 36.8%， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, the US biodiesel policy is on the agenda, boosting the global vegetable oil prices. Palm oil and soybean oil have stopped falling and rebounded, while rapeseed oil has stabilized at the bottom. In the medium to long term, it is advisable to maintain a long - position thinking of buying on dips, and continue to hold long positions in rapeseed oil [1][2] - For the two - meal sector, view the short - term rebound of double meals, and wait for short - selling opportunities after the return of fundamentals following the subsiding of macro - narrative sentiment [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 28th, boosted by the sharp rise in international crude oil and the shift of sector funds, the vegetable oil sector continued its strong upward trend. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8326 yuan/ton, up 0.82% day - on - day, with an increase of 8470 lots in open interest. Similar trends were seen in other contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [1][2] 3.1.2 Important Information - International oil prices rose 1.49% on January 28th due to concerns about the Iranian situation and a weaker US dollar. The active March crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose $0.93, or 1.49%, to settle at $63.21 per barrel [1] - Trump's claim that the US "fleet" was heading to Iran pushed up oil prices, providing additional support for soybean oil prices used in biofuel production [1] - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1] - Malaysia lowered its February reference price for crude palm oil, reducing the export tariff to 9%. The February reference price was 3,846.84 ringgit ($950) per ton, compared with 3,946.17 ringgit in January with an export tariff of 9.5% [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [1] - From January 1st to 25th, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 15.28% and the oil extraction rate (OER) up 0.11% [1] - From January 1st to 20th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 947,939 tons, an increase of 11.4% compared with 851,057 tons in the same period in December [1] - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared with 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, and the B50 mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1][2] - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0449 million tons, down 58,500 tons week - on - week, a 2.78% decrease and a 2.60% increase year - on - year. The inventory of different oils showed different trends [2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the tense situation in the Middle East and winter storms tightened the expected supply of US crude oil, and international crude oil continued to rise, driving up the price of US soybean oil. The upward trend of Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue due to macro - narrative promotion and potential positive factors such as production decline and export growth [2] - Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. The customs tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, but the domestic auction of old imported soybeans was fully sold, and the oil mills had sufficient soybeans for crushing, with the Spring Festival stocking still ongoing. For palm oil, after the release of negative data from Southeast Asia, the market focused more on the US biodiesel policy expectations, and the improvement in export data boosted the price. For rapeseed oil, the new economic and trade agreement between China and Canada, the US tariff threat to Canada, and the Spring Festival stocking factors led to a sharp rise in price [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Continue to hold existing long positions in soybean oil and palm oil, and also hold long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [2] - Arbitrage trading: None at present [2] 3.2 Two - Meal Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 28th, with the shift of sector hotspots and the support of macro - narrative, the double - meal continued to rebound. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2782 yuan/ton, up 0.58% day - on - day, with an increase of 5766 lots in open interest [2][3] 3.2.2 Important Information - Since the Sino - US trade truce agreement in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the commitment in advance [3] - The estimated soybean exports from Brazil in January 2026 are 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and a 238% increase from the same period last year [3] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate [3] - As of January 16th, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, and the harvest progress in Mato Grosso state was 6.69% [3] - As of December 30th, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, and the second - season soybean sowing progress reached 71.9% [3] - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's 2026 soybean exports will be 105 million tons, a 3% decrease from the record in 2025, and the soybean crushing volume will reach 60 million tons, a 2.5% increase from last year [3] - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a 114% increase from the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons [3] - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, down 4.35% week - on - week, and the contract volume decreased by 13.24% week - on - week. The inventory and contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed meal remained unchanged [3] - The national grain trading center's auction of imported soybeans on January 13th had a 100% transaction rate [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the increasing drought risk in Argentina and the weaker US dollar led to the continued rise of US soybeans [4] - Domestically, in the spot market, the fixed - price and near - month basis of oil mills were mostly stable. The terminal pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, and the oil mill inventory continued to decline. However, the high operating rate of oil mills and the alleviation of local vehicle - queuing problems made it difficult for the market trading volume to increase. Due to the renewed tension in Sino - Canadian trade relations affected by US remarks, the short - selling funds in rapeseed meal decreased, and the rapeseed meal futures price continued to rise. In the spot market, the downstream inventory - building rate slowed down due to policy fluctuations [4] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Operate the 05 and 09 contracts of double meals with a rebound mindset, and provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [4] - Arbitrage trading: None at present [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views - For the corn market, in the short - term, downstream enterprises' inventory - building pace slows down, and there is an expected wave of concentrated grain sales by farmers before the Spring Festival. In the medium - term, there is still inventory - building demand after the Spring Festival, and a wide - range trading strategy is maintained. In the long - term, the pricing logic is based on substitution and planting costs, with a focus on policy guidance [3]. - For the pig market, in the short - term, southern pig prices have dropped significantly, and there is a price inversion between the north and the south. In the medium - term, there is an expected increase in pig supply before March, and a supply pressure relief from April. In the long - term, there is still supply pressure before August, but the decline in the inventory of breeding sows at the end of 2025 was less than expected, leading to a downward shift in the expectations of far - month contracts [5]. - For the egg market, in the short - term, egg prices are slightly stronger, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in February may cause prices to fall again. In the medium - term, the supply pressure has not been fully released, and the upward momentum of spot prices is insufficient. In the long - term, the continuous expansion of egg - laying hen farming scale may limit the upward space of prices, and waiting for the process of capacity reduction driven by over - culling of hens [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - **Market Review**: The corn futures fluctuated and consolidated in the night session yesterday. The main 2603 contract fell 0.39% and closed at 2270 yuan/ton [3]. - **Important Information**: Deep - processing enterprise quotes in the Northeast were stable at 2199 yuan/ton, and in North China, the average purchase price rose 2 yuan/ton to 2284 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port dropped 10 yuan/ton to 2290 - 2300 yuan/ton, and the transaction price at Shekou Port dropped 10 yuan/ton to 2410 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The number of corn futures warehouse receipts increased by 2299 to 54345. The grain - selling progress in the Northeast was 62% and in North China was 53% [3]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: focus on farmers' grain - selling progress; Medium - term: maintain a wide - range trading strategy and focus on the pace and intensity of policy - grain auctions; Long - term: follow the substitution and planting - cost pricing logic and focus on policy guidance [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a wide - range trading strategy in the medium - term. For the 2603 contract, the pressure is at 2295 - 2310, the first support is at 2270, and the second support is at 2250 - 2260. For the 2605 contract, the pressure is at 2290 - 2300, and the support is at 2260 - 2270 [3]. Pig - **Market Review**: The pig futures continued to be weak yesterday. The main 2603 contract fell 0.88% and closed at 11270 yuan/ton [3]. - **Important Information**: The national average pig price was 12.57 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg from the previous day. The inventory of breeding sows at the end of December was 39.61 million, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease, 101.6% of the normal level. The number of new - born piglets from January to September 2025 increased, and the number of piglet births in October and November 2025 decreased. The average slaughter weight of pigs increased to 124.66 kg. The fat - to - standard price difference was 0.41 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The number of pig futures warehouse receipts was 426, unchanged from the previous day [3][5]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: pay attention to downstream stocking sentiment in the middle of the twelfth lunar month; Medium - term: there is an expected increase in pig supply before March, and a supply pressure relief from April, focus on the impact of diseases; Long - term: there is still supply pressure before August, and the expectations of far - month contracts have shifted downward [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the 2603 contract, the support is at 11000 - 11200, and the pressure is at 11500. For the 2605 contract, the support is at 11500 - 11600, and the pressure is at 11900. For the 2607 contract, the support is at 12200 - 12300, and the pressure is at 12500. For the 2609 contract, the support is at 13100 - 13200, and the pressure is at 13400 - 13500 [5]. Egg - **Market Review**: The egg futures showed mixed trends yesterday. The main 2603 contract fell 0.59% and closed at 3048 yuan/500KG [5]. - **Important Information**: The average egg price in the main production areas rose 0.04 yuan/jin to 3.96 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas, it rose 0.06 yuan/jin to 4.23 yuan/jin. The inventory in the production process decreased by 0.01 days to 1 day, and the inventory in the circulation process remained at 1.07 days. The average price of old laying hens rose 0.05 yuan/jin to 4.62 yuan/jin. The estimated number of laying hens in January is 1.334 billion [5]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: egg prices are slightly stronger, but may fall in February. Medium - term: supply pressure has not been fully released, and the upward momentum of spot prices is insufficient. Long - term: the expansion of the egg - laying hen farming scale may limit price increases, and wait for the capacity - reduction process driven by over - culling [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts after the spot price stops rising and the inventory accumulates. For the 2603 contract, the short - term pressure is at 3100, and it needs to effectively break below 3030 to open further downward space. Do not be overly optimistic about egg prices in the second half of the year before over - culling occurs [5].

早盘提示 Morning session notice 鉴于美国连续的错误政策，全球经济已越过顶部区域，开始向下运行。 重要事项: 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、达利欧发文警告美国正处于"债务大周期"中"现有秩序崩溃"（第六阶段） | | | | 的边缘。在贫富差距悬殊、债务膨胀及真相丧失的背景下，美国已成"火药桶"。 | | | | 达利欧直言"当有疑问时，离开"，警示投资者注意资本管制风险。 | | | | 2、特朗普暗示他可以操纵美元汇率，称"可以让它像溜溜球一样上下波动"，但 | | | | 认为这么做并非好事，还批评日本一直让货币贬值。在市场猜测美日可能联合干预 | | | | 汇市后，日元最近三个交易日累涨 4%。 | | | | 3、高盛表示，纽约联储代表美国财政部进行的美元兑日元汇率询价，向市场传递 | | | | 了强烈信号，显示美国政府对汇率水平的关注程度超过此前。高盛 ...