早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 在四中全会公报利好鼓舞下，周五两市主要指数高开上行，科技板块领涨。两市成 | | | | | 交额 1.97 万亿元，上涨放量。沪深 300 指数收 4660 点，涨 54 点，涨幅 1.18%；上 | | | | | 证 50 指数收 3045 点，涨 18 点，涨幅 0.63%；中证 500 指数收 7258 点，涨 115 点， | | | | | 涨幅 1.62%；中证 1000 指数收 7419 点，涨 111 点，涨幅 1.52%。行业与主题 ETF | | | | | 中涨幅居前的是通信设备 ETF、创业板人工智能 ETF 国泰、科创成长 ETF、5G ETF、 | | | | | 科创芯片 ETF 基金，跌幅居前的是酒 ETF、煤炭 ETF、油气 ETF。两市板块指数中涨 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - High - growth trends are expected for Chinese stocks in the future, and a structural shift of Chinese capital towards stocks may have begun [2]. - The global economy is entering the top - end area due to the continuous wrong policies in the US [2]. Summary by Related Information Macroeconomic and Financial Information - US 9 - month CPI increased 3% year - on - year, below expectations; core inflation rose 0.2% month - on - month, the slowest in three months and lower than the expected 0.3%. Service inflation in September slowed to its weakest level since November 2021 [1]. - US October Markit manufacturing and service PMI climbed, better than expected. Business activities expanded at the second - fastest pace this year, driven by order growth, while companies were more restrained in pricing [1]. - JP Morgan and MUFG are leading multiple banks to launch a $38 billion debt issuance for an Oracle - related data center project, the largest AI infrastructure financing deal [1]. - US Energy Secretary Wright urged FERC to limit data center grid connection approval time to 60 days, which may cause concerns about rising electricity prices [1]. - NVIDIA will use Uber - collected driving data to post - train its Cosmos World base model [1]. - Amazon is launching a new AI tool "Help Me Decide" for US consumers [1]. - Data from US Bank, ADP, and Carlyle Group confirm rising unemployment. Goldman Sachs attributes the slowdown of about 100,000 in employment growth to three reasons [1]. - Japan's September core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year, exceeding the central bank's 2% target for three years. Most analysts expect the next interest rate hike to be postponed to January next year [1]. - JP Morgan and US Bank strategists expect the Fed to stop shrinking its $6.6 trillion balance sheet at the October FOMC meeting [2]. Global Economic Logic - Goldman Sachs expects more sustained upward trends for Chinese stocks in the future, and a structural shift of Chinese capital towards stocks may have started [2]. - Traders are increasing bets on at least one 50 - basis - point Fed rate cut in the upcoming meetings [2]. - Goldman Sachs believes that although AI infrastructure investment has reached a new high in nominal terms, the current US AI investment accounts for less than 1% of GDP [2]. - Meta and Blue Owl are raising $27 billion through private bonds to build data centers [2]. - DeepSeek launched a revolutionary OCR model to solve the computing power problem of AI in processing long documents [2]. - An Apollo executive warns of a huge gap between AI's energy demand and global power supply [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The third - quarter growth meets expectations, and the bond market continues to fluctuate. The short - term trend of Treasury bond futures may be volatile, and trading - type investments can conduct band operations [2][44][45] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Treasury Bond Futures and Bond Market - This week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly downward, while the Wind All - A Index fluctuated slightly upward. The 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.62%, the 10 - year Treasury bond fell 0.24%, the 5 - year Treasury bond fell 0.15%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond fell 0.04% [4] - As of October 24, compared with October 17, the Treasury bond spot yield curve shifted slightly upward as a whole, with a slightly larger upward movement at the long end. The 2 - year Treasury bond yield remained flat at 1.49%, the 5 - year yield rose 3 BPs to 1.62%, the 10 - year yield rose 3 BPs to 1.85%, and the 30 - year yield rose 1 BP to 2.21% [6] Macroeconomic Data - In the third quarter, China's GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. In the first three quarters, GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year [9] - From January to September, national fixed - asset investment decreased 0.5% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) grew 3.3%, narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew 1.1%, manufacturing investment grew 4.0%, and real estate development investment decreased 13.9% [12] - From January to September, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a 5.5% year - on - year decrease, and the sales volume was 6.304 trillion yuan, a 7.9% year - on - year decrease. In September, the sales of newly built commercial housing accelerated their decline [14] - In September, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased 1.0% month - on - month, and the decline in second - and third - tier cities expanded. The real estate sales price is still in the bottom - building process [17] - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 419.71 billion yuan, a 3.0% year - on - year increase, lower than market expectations. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased 4.5% year - on - year [19] - In September, the service retail sales increased 5.2% year - on - year from January to September, and the national service production index increased 5.6% year - on - year, the same as in August [24][26] - In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 6.5% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. From January to September, it increased 6.2% year - on - year [29] - In September, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 96.7%, a 0.7 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. In the third quarter, the capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 74.6%, the lowest in the same period since 2017 [32][34] - In September, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [37] Capital Market and Policy - This week, the capital interest rate remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.317%, and that of DR007 was 1.429%. The LPR remained unchanged in October [41] - Recently, the central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local areas, and a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held on October 24 [44]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Spot Regional Differentiation, Corn Focus on Low-Long Opportunities; Pig Prices Start Bottoming, Futures Trading for Basis Repair; Strong Expectation but Weak Reality, Eggs Focus on Regression Repair" - Report Date: October 24, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Xiaojun - Contact Information: 0371 - 65617380 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F0242716 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011864 [2][3] Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Corn: Spot prices show regional differentiation, with Northeast China rebounding from a decline and North China relatively weak. There are low-long opportunities, and a range trading strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [5][7]. - Pigs: Pig prices are starting to bottom out, and the futures market is trading for basis repair. Near-term contracts will follow the supply-demand logic, while far-term contracts will trade on the expected difference in sow de-capacity [9][11]. - Eggs: There is a situation of strong expectation but weak reality. Eggs should focus on regression repair. Before large-scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, a high-short strategy is maintained [14][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Important Information - On the 24th, the purchase price of deep-processing enterprises in Northeast China was 2015 yuan/ton, and in North China it was 2230 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices at north and south ports were mainly weak and stable [5]. - As of October 24, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged from the previous day, totaling 61,968 [5]. - The wheat-corn price difference in Shandong was +270 yuan/ton as of October 23 [5]. - More than 60% of the autumn grain harvest nationwide is complete. The purchase by the China Grain Reserves Corporation in Northeast China has supported the market sentiment, and the autumn harvest in North China is accelerating [5]. Market Logic - Short term: The spot price in Northeast China has stopped falling and stabilized, while North China is stable with a weak trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of continuous rain in North China on yield and grain quality. The lower support for the futures price is in the range of 2050 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is related to the wheat-corn price difference [6]. - Medium term: Band trading should be carried out around the drivers of new-season corn, focusing on the opening price of new grain, farmers' selling sentiment, and downstream inventory building efforts. A wide-range trading strategy is recommended [6]. - Long term: The pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost is maintained, and policy guidance should be closely monitored [6]. Trading Strategy - In the medium and long term, a range trading strategy is maintained. Pay attention to the low-long opportunities of the 2601 contract after a pullback to test the support level at 2100. The first pressure level is 2150, and the second is 2160 - 2170 [7]. Pigs Important Information - On the 24th, the national average pig price was 11.74 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day. It is expected that the pig price will be weak in the north and stable in the south on the morning of the 25th [9]. - In September 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%, still 103.46% of the normal level. The number of new-born piglets in the first half of the year was at a historical high, indicating an increasing supply of pigs in the second half of the year [9]. - As of October 23, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.6 kg, an increase of 0.09 kg from the previous week [13]. - On October 24, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.32 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [13]. - On October 24, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts increased by 95 to 206 [13]. Market Logic - Short term: After a rapid decline, pig prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the spot market may enter a low-level shock bottoming stage. The futures market will continue the basis repair logic [10]. - Medium term: The number of new-born piglets from February to June increased month-on-month, indicating an expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year, which limits the rise in pig prices [10]. - Long term: The number of fertile sows is still higher than the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased year-on-year. If there is no impact from epidemics, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [10]. Trading Strategy - The policy guidance on sow de-capacity can only affect the pig supply from the second half of next year. Near-term contracts will follow the supply-demand logic. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions and wait and see. Far-term contracts should trade on the expected difference in sow de-capacity, and pay attention to the actual change in sow inventory. Do not be overly bullish on far-term contracts before obvious sow de-capacity occurs [11]. - For the 2601 contract, the support level is 11300 - 11500, and the pressure level is 12300 - 12500. For the 2603 contract, the support is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure is 11700 - 11800. For the 2605 contract, the support is 11800 - 11900, and the pressure is 12200 - 12300. For the 2607 contract, the support is 12400 - 12600, and the pressure is 12800 - 13000 [11]. Eggs Important Information - On the 24th, the main line of egg spot prices rose slightly, and the low-price areas were stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.9 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas it was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin [14]. - On the 24th, the inventory level was stable with a slight increase. The average production link inventory nationwide was 1.04 days, up 0.01 days from the previous day, and the circulation link inventory was 1.1 days, unchanged from the previous day [14]. - On the 24th, the average price of old hens was 4.1 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of October 23, the weekly culling age of old hens was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [14]. - In September, the number of laying hens in the country was about 1.368 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.22% and a year-on-year increase of 6.05%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in October is 1.36 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.56% [14]. Market Logic - Short term: Egg prices have fallen to a low level, and downstream inventory replenishment has driven the inventory down, causing egg prices to stop falling and rebound [14]. - Medium term: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term remains unchanged. The culling age of chickens is still high, the supply pressure of eggs has not been significantly released, and the short-term downstream consumption is relatively weak. It is expected that the spot price will lack continuous upward momentum. When the inventory stops falling and starts to rise, the spot price will be weak. Attention should be paid to the intensity and scale of chicken culling driven by low prices [14]. - Long term: The continuous increase in the scale of egg chicken farming may extend the price bottoming cycle. Wait patiently for the de-capacity process driven by excessive culling in the farming sector [15]. Trading Strategy - Before large-scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, a high-short strategy is maintained. Near-term contracts will continue the basis repair logic. The futures market rose significantly in the last two trading days of this week, but there is no substantial bullish driver in the fundamentals. It was suggested in the morning report on Friday to consider stopping profits on previous short positions. In the situation of strong expectation but weak reality, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for trading opportunities when the fundamentals and the market sentiment resonate [15].

Global Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects a more sustained upward trend in Chinese stocks in the future, and the structural shift of Chinese capital into stocks may have begun. The willingness of Chinese market entities to settle foreign exchange has significantly increased. Traders are increasing bets that the Fed will implement at least one 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in its meeting later this month or in December [4] - Although AI infrastructure investment has reached a record high in nominal terms, compared with historical technology cycles, it is not exaggerated. Currently, US AI investment accounts for less than 1% of GDP [4] - Meta has joined hands with private - equity giant Blue Owl to raise $27 billion through the issuance of private bonds to build data centers. DeepSeek has launched a revolutionary OCR model to solve the computing power problem of AI in processing long documents [4] - An executive at Apollo Global Management warns that there is a huge gap between the huge energy demand of artificial intelligence and the current global power supply, and this gap may not be filled in our lifetime [4] - Due to the continuous wrong policies of the US, the global economy is entering the top - region [5] - After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on various countries, the competitiveness of Chinese goods has increased, and the US imports from China in August increased by nearly 40% month - on - month [6] - The US Market manufacturing PMI in September was 52.0, continuing to expand [9] - In August, the US manufacturing unfilled orders were at a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 7.1%, indicating high business sentiment [12] - The US capital goods import amount in August was $91.9 billion, still at a high level, and the year - on - year growth rate was 10.5%, indicating that the US manufacturing industry is accelerating its return and the US "re - industrialization" is speeding up [15] - The US wholesalers' sales in August were $711.3 billion, a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, indicating strong US consumption [18] - The total retail and food sales in the US in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, showing strong US consumption [21] - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI slightly contracted in September, while the service - sector PMI accelerated its expansion [24] - India's manufacturing and service - sector PMIs continued to expand in September, and India's manufacturing and service industries have maintained expansion for more than three years [26] - The upward trend of Japan's long - term government bond yields has not changed [29] Asset Allocation - The Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates in October [31] - Wait for the Sino - US agreement at the end of the month in the context of Sino - US game [32] - The market's defensive state has not ended, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, representing the value style, has reached a new high. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee's communiqué emphasizes seizing the high - ground of scientific and technological development, and the technology sector has become active again. Policies are favorable to semiconductor equipment ETFs and science and technology innovation chip ETFs [33] - AI infrastructure drives a rapid increase in power demand, leading to a stronger copper price [34][47] - The container shipping European line 2512 contract has entered the seasonal peak season [35][50] - Awaited for the clarity of the Sino - US agreement at the end of the month, the CSI 300 Index is both offensive and defensive, and the stock - index allocation is mainly long positions in CSI 300 stock - index futures [39] Lithium Carbonate Market - The growth rate of lithium carbonate demand is much higher than the production growth rate. In October 2025, the planned production of power + energy - storage + consumer batteries in the Chinese market was 186 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 22.4% and a year - on - year increase of 45.3%. The planned production of lithium - battery A was 61.3 GWh, lithium - battery B was 30.9 GWh, and lithium - battery C was 13 GWh. The planned production of energy - storage cells accounted for about 40.3%, and the planned production of ternary cells accounted for about 15%. The average operating rate of the lithium - battery industry was close to 90%, and the production lines of leading enterprises were operating at full capacity [41] - In October 2025, the total production of power + energy - storage + consumer batteries in the global market was about 205 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 25.8%. Currently, the increased production of domestic spodumene and salt - lake lithium mines offsets the reduction in lithium - mine production, but the total supply has not increased, while the demand has increased significantly, resulting in nine consecutive weeks of inventory reduction, which will continue in the future [42] - PwC reports that in 2026, thanks to the explosive growth of energy - storage and the continuous growth of power batteries, the total demand for lithium carbonate will reach 2.05 million tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 35% compared with 1.55 million tons in 2025 [42] - The expansion of lithium carbonate production capacity is expected to slow down significantly in 2026, with an expected growth of only about 10%, and the new supply will be difficult to match the continuously high - speed growth in demand [43] - The surge in energy - storage demand, with the demand growth rate of lithium carbonate far exceeding the production growth rate, has pushed up the price of lithium carbonate [44]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Ji Xiaoyun, Contact: 010 - 56711796, Futures Qualification No.: F3066027, Futures Trading Consultation No.: Z0011402 [3] Group 2: Steel and Ore Views - Current Situation: In the current policy vacuum period, this week's screw and coil production and apparent demand both increased, with hot - rolled coils stronger than screws in production and sales. Inventory continued to decline, and both screws and coils were in a continuous de - stocking state. However, the total steel output decreased, mainly in medium and heavy plates. Upstream coal mine safety inspections led to a second round of coke price increases, which are likely to be implemented, supporting finished products. The current daily hot metal output is 239.9 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.05 million tons, still at a relatively high level. This week, the steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a 7.79% decrease from last week. Electric - arc furnaces are in full - scale losses, while blast furnaces still have profits, creating a rigid demand for iron ore. It is expected that the hot metal output will continue to decline, likely falling below 230 million tons [5][24] - Price Forecast: The pressure level of the main screw contract is 3230, and close attention should be paid to whether 3000 can provide effective support. In the short term, 3000 has certain toughness. It is expected that iron ore will continue to maintain a volatile trend. The pressure level of the main 2601 contract is 833, and close attention should be paid to the support level of 750 [5][6] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Screw Strategy: Maintain the previous view that in the short term, the screw at 3000 still has strong toughness. When approaching 3000, it is recommended to try going long, and those who already have long positions should continue to hold. Once it effectively breaks below, it is recommended to stop loss and exit [6] - Iron Ore Strategy: It is recommended to operate short - term and set stop - losses. The spread between hot - rolled coils and screws has widened to over 200, and the room for further widening is limited [6] Group 4: Important Information - Ship Exports: In September, China exported 543 ships, a 24.0% year - on - year increase; from January to September, the cumulative exports were 5226 ships, a 23.5% year - on - year increase [7] - Industrial Added Value: In September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year in real terms. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [7] - Coal and Coke Production: In September, the output of raw coal was 41.1505 million tons, a 1.8% year - on - year decrease; from January to September, the cumulative output was 357.017 million tons, a 2.0% year - on - year increase. In September, the output of coke was 4.2556 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year increase; from January to September, the cumulative output was 37.7161 million tons, a 3.5% year - on - year increase [7] - Steel Production: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year decrease; pig iron output was 66.05 million tons, a 2.4% year - on - year decrease; steel output was 124.21 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. From January to September, China's crude steel output was 746.25 million tons, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease; pig iron output was 645.86 million tons, a 1.1% year - on - year decrease; steel output was 1103.85 million tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase [7] - Real Estate: From January to September, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a 13.9% year - on - year decrease. The new housing start - up area decreased by 18.9%, and the housing completion area decreased by 15.3% [7] - Iron Ore Production and Sales: In the third quarter of 2025, Vale's total iron ore output was 94.4 million tons, a 12.9% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 3.8% year - on - year increase; total sales were 86 million tons, an 11.21% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 5.1% year - on - year increase [7] Group 5: Market Analysis - Steel Price Cycle: Steel prices generally follow a 7 - year cycle. From 2008 - 2015, they declined; from 2016 - 2021, they rose; from 2021 - 2025, they are in a decline cycle. Currently, they are still in the downward cycle [8] - Macro - level: The Fourth Plenary Session has a certain supporting effect on the market. However, the terminal market performance is still poor. Real estate investment growth continues to decline, infrastructure investment and manufacturing growth have been decreasing since April, and only exports remain at a relatively high level but are also showing a downward trend. The uncertainty of steel exports in the future has increased, and external demand cannot make up for the weak domestic demand [16] - Supply - side: From January to September, China's crude steel output continued to show negative year - on - year growth, and the reduction in pig iron output was relatively small [16] - Supply and Demand: This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.6532 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 83,700 tons, an increase of 1.0%; the total inventory was 15.5485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 274,100 tons, a decrease of 1.7%; the apparent consumption was 8.9273 million tons, a 2.2% month - on - month increase [17] - Structural Features: Screw production has been lower than the same period in previous years, while hot - rolled coil and medium - heavy plate production have been higher than in previous years. Hot metal has shifted to plates. This week, the increase in screw production was greater than that of hot - rolled coils, but the demand for hot - rolled coils was stronger. Electric - arc furnaces are in full - scale losses, while blast furnaces still have profits [20] - Iron Ore Inventory: The current iron ore port inventory has accumulated, and the inventory contradiction is not prominent. The inventory at Australian and Brazilian ports has been rapidly de - stocked, reaching a new low in the second half of the year [24] - Iron Ore Transportation: From September 29 to October 5, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 27.758 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.721 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 26.087 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.482 million tons. The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 1.964 million tons week - on - week [27] - Spread: The spread between hot - rolled coils and screws has widened to over 200, and the inter - period trading opportunities are not significant [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee's communique is favorable for the technology sector, and the science - innovation 50 index has regained strength. The stock market is crucial for boosting residents' consumption confidence, and a stable stock market can enhance the internal impetus of the domestic economic cycle. In the context of weakening export expectations and investment slowdown, consumption will be the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [5][9][20] - The "15th Five - Year Plan Suggestions" propose forward - looking layout of future industries, with quantum technology, bio - manufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy, brain - computer interface, embodied intelligence, 6G and other fields becoming new economic growth points. Chinese capital may be migrating structurally towards stocks, attracting overseas investors [20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Policy - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasizes adhering to the economic construction as the center, promoting high - quality development, achieving self - reliance and strength in high - level science and technology, expanding domestic demand, steadily expanding institutional opening - up, improving people's livelihood, and promoting green transformation [4][5][6] - The "Learning Times" article highlights the importance of stabilizing the stock market in increasing residents' property income and boosting consumption confidence [9] Stock Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new high in 10 years. The Shanghai 50 Index representing the value style has reached a new high in the first half of the week. After being encouraged by the Fourth Plenary Session's communique, the technology sector led the rise on Friday, and the chip sector also regained strength [11][14][17] - The financing balance remains stable, with 2.93 million new A - share accounts opened in September. In August, non - bank financial institutions had an increase of 1.18 trillion yuan in RMB deposits, indicating a transfer of residents' savings to the stock market. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 in September reached 7.2%, which is conducive to the upward movement of the stock market [22][25][28] Economic Data - In September, the core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the CPI for consumer goods increased by 0.3% month - on - month. The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing fixed - asset investment in September was - 1.9%, infrastructure investment decreased by 7.9% year - on - year, and real estate development investment continued to decline with a year - on - year growth rate of - 21.2% [31][34][40] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in September was 4.19 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.0%. The output of industrial robots in September was 76,200 units, a new record, with a year - on - year growth rate of 41.1% [43][46] International Market - After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on various countries, China's commodity competitiveness increased, and the US imports from China in August increased by nearly 40% month - on - month. The total retail and food sales in the US in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The sales of US wholesalers in August reached a record high of 711.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [49][52][55] - The US capital goods imports in August were 91.9 billion US dollars, still at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 10.5%, indicating an acceleration of the US "re - industrialization" [58] Investment Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, wait for the clarity of the China - US negotiation at the end of the month. The long positions of stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index and the Shanghai 50 Index. For stock index option trading, as the market is still in a large - range volatile consolidation state, it is advisable to wait and see [20][21] - Before and after the China - US agreement at the end of the month, consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on the stock index, with the CSI 300 Index being a good choice for both offense and defense [64][66]

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.91%报 4143.2 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 2.03%报 48.65 美 元/盎司。沪金收涨 1.56%报 948.64 元/克，沪银涨 1.48%报 11517 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 10 月 23 日，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 1052.37 吨， 较前一个交易日维持不变。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上一 | | | | | 交易日减少 128.41 吨，当前持仓量为 15469.2 吨。 | | | | | 2、当地时间 23 日，欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表卡拉斯宣布，欧盟正式通过对俄 | | | | | 罗斯第 19 轮制裁。此轮制裁首次涉及俄罗斯的天然气行业。欧盟将首次禁止俄罗 | | | | | 斯液化天然气进入欧洲市场。 | | | | 黄 金 震 | 3、美国财政部当地时间 22 日 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term treasury bond futures may fluctuate [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, with a slow decline in the morning session and a continuation in the afternoon. There was a late - session rally followed by a slight decline. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.10%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year TS2512 remained flat [1] - On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 138.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 43.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 94.7 billion yuan [1] - On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market was basically flat compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.32% for the day, and DR007 had a weighted average of 1.43% [1] - On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield rose 0.50 BP to 1.50%, the 5 - year yield fell 0.06 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year yield fell 0.64 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year yield fell 0.50 BP to 2.18% [1] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the number of domestic tourist trips was 4.998 billion, an increase of 761 million compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 18.0% [1] - On October 22, local time, US President Trump canceled his meeting with Russian President Putin in Budapest and said it was time to impose sanctions on Russia [1] - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. In September, China's fixed - asset investment growth and total retail sales of consumer goods growth were lower than market expectations, while exports exceeded expectations. Industrial added value of large - scale industries increased more than expected, and the service production index was flat compared to August. Real estate sales continued to decline year - on - year in September and in the first half of October [1] - On October 18, the leaders of China - US economic and trade negotiations agreed to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. On Wednesday, the Wind All - A Index opened lower, fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, and closed with a small positive star. The trading volume was 1.69 trillion yuan, a contraction compared to the previous trading day's 1.89 trillion yuan [2] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Traders should conduct band operations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends going long on IF and IH, staying neutral on IC and IM in the stock index futures of the macro and financial sector [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese stocks will have a more sustained upward trend, with the MSCI China Index expected to rise by about 30% by the end of 2027, driven by 12% trend - like earnings growth and 5% - 10% re - evaluation potential [1][2]. - The low bond yields and the discounted valuation of Chinese stocks compared to global stocks, along with the expected loosening of Fed policy and potential decline in China's domestic real interest rates, make Chinese stocks' valuations attractive [1]. - Chinese capital may be undergoing a structural shift towards stocks, driven by trillions of dollars of potential asset re - allocation funds, and China has re - entered the sight of overseas investors [1][2][3]. - Stabilizing the stock market is crucial for boosting consumers' spending confidence, as it can inject capital into the real economy and drive consumption through wealth, psychological, and expectation effects [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the two markets opened lower and then oscillated strongly, with the banking sector continuing to strengthen. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.66 trillion yuan, showing a contraction in volume and a decline in selling pressure [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,592 points, down 15 points (- 0.33%); the SSE 50 Index closed at 3,010 points, up 2 points (0.09%); the CSI 500 Index closed at 7,128 points, down 57 points (- 0.80%); the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,312 points, down 31 points (- 0.43%) [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were oil and gas resource ETFs, bank ETF funds, leading home appliance ETFs, education ETFs, and real estate ETF funds; those with the highest losses were gold stock ETFs, power grid equipment ETFs, and photovoltaic leading ETFs [1]. - Among the sector indices of the two markets, those with the highest gains were oilfield services engineering, geothermal energy, wind power equipment, shale gas, and home appliance parts indices; those with the highest losses were precious metals, forestry, coke processing, feed, and consumer electronics indices [1]. - The settlement funds of CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 index stock index futures had net outflows of 5 billion, 4.7 billion, 3.3 billion, and 0.6 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - Goldman Sachs believes that the AI boom has changed corporate profit models, and profit growth from AI - based capital expenditure is underway. Counter - cyclical regulatory policies have reignited market hopes for corporate profit recovery, and the "going global" strategy demonstrates China's enhanced competitiveness [1]. - Since September 15, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen by 44%, with a 33% jump in the past ten days. The capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate has increased [2]. - Meta and private equity giant Blue Owl raised $27 billion through private bond issuance to build data centers. BlackRock subscribed for over $3 billion, becoming the second - largest investor, and Pimco subscribed for $18 billion, ranking first [2]. - OpenAI launched a new AI - driven web browser, ChatGPT Atlas, to compete directly with Google's Chrome browser [2]. - Anthropic is in talks with Google about a potential cloud - computing agreement worth tens of billions of dollars, which will provide large - scale computing power support for Claude [2]. - The zinc market of the London Metal Exchange is facing its most severe squeeze in decades. Due to production cuts by Western smelters and continuous depletion of inventories, the available zinc inventory on the LME is less than one - day's demand, and the premium of spot zinc prices over three - month contracts has soared to $323 per ton [2]. Market Logic - The stock market has warmed up, and investor confidence has gradually increased. As of October 13, the number of new A - share accounts exceeded 20 million, a year - on - year increase of over 50%, which has effectively increased residents' property income [2]. - Many foreign institutions believe that the recent valuation of A - shares is reasonably low, making them attractive for global diversified allocation and hedging against the risk of US dollar assets [2]. Future Market Outlook - As of October 17, the net inflow of the ETF market in October reached 99.161 billion yuan, with equity - based ETFs contributing 92.457 billion yuan, accounting for over 90% [3]. - The market is still in a defensive state, and the volatile market is difficult to change. The market is waiting for the clarity of the China - US negotiation at the end of the month [3]. Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, the volatile market is difficult to change, and the market is waiting for the clarity of the China - US negotiation at the end of the month. Long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index and the SSE 50 Index [3]. - For stock index option trading, as the market is in a volatile and consolidating state, it is advisable to wait and see [3].