Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial sector (specifically for treasury bonds) is "oscillation" [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The 2025 annual GDP of China reached 1,401,879 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year - on - year at constant prices, meeting the target set at the beginning of the year. The Q4 GDP had a stable sequential growth. In December, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and social consumer goods retail were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate and the actual year - on - year growth of industrial added value of large - scale industries exceeded market expectations. The service industry production index in December increased by 0.8 percentage points compared to November. The real estate sales volume and housing prices continued to decline in December last year and in the first half of January this year. The central bank cut the re - loan and re - discount rates by 0.25 percentage points on January 19, 2026, and indicated there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts throughout the year. The treasury bond futures' main contracts mostly had a slight correction, with the 30 - year variety falling more. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher, then fell in the morning session and fluctuated narrowly until the close. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures' main contract TL2603 fell 0.22%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2603 remained flat [3] Important Information - Open market: On Monday, the central bank conducted 158.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 86.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan [3] - Money market: On Monday, the isolation interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48%, compared with 1.44% in the previous trading day [3] - Cash bond market: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly increased compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond rose 0.29 basis points to 1.41%, the 5 - year fell 0.01 basis points to 1.61%, the 10 - year fell 0.31 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30 - year rose 3.81 basis points to 2.34% [3] - Economic data: In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, growing 5.0% year - on - year at constant prices. In Q4, China's GDP increased by 4.5% year - on - year and 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year (market expected a 2.4% decline), and in 2024, it increased by 3.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing in 2025 decreased by 8.7% year - on - year (12.9% in 2024), and the sales volume decreased by 12.6% year - on - year (17.1% in 2024). The added value of large - scale industries in 2025 increased by 5.9% year - on - year (5.8% in 2024). In December, the added value of large - scale industries actually increased by 5.2% year - on - year (market expected 4.9%, 4.8% in November). In Q4 2025, the national capacity utilization rate of large - scale industries was 74.9%, 0.3 percentage points higher than in Q3 and 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period in 2024. The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2025 were 501,202 billion yuan, growing 3.7% year - on - year (3.5% in 2024). In December, the retail sales increased by 0.9% year - on - year (market expected 1.5%, 1.3% in November). The added value of the service industry in 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year (5.1% in 2024). In December, the service industry production index increased by 5.0% year - on - year (4.2% in November). In December, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, the same as the previous month and the same period last year [3] Market Logic - The 2025 GDP growth met market expectations. The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly had a slight correction, and the 30 - year variety fell more. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored [4] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black building materials sector (steel) is "oscillating" [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the national economy withstood pressure, made progress towards new and high - quality development, and successfully completed the main goals of the "14th Five - Year Plan". The GDP was 140.1879 trillion yuan, a 5.0% increase compared to the previous year [1] - From January to December 2025, China's crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a 4.4% year - on - year decrease; pig iron production was 836.04 million tons, a 3.0% year - on - year decrease; steel production was 1.44612 billion tons, a 3.1% year - on - year increase [1] - In 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% compared to the previous year [1] - In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a 17.2% year - on - year decrease. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a 10.0% year - on - year decrease. The new construction area was 587.7 million square meters, a 20.4% decrease. The completed area was 603.48 million square meters, an 18.1% decrease. Among them, the completed residential area was 428.3 million square meters, a 20.2% decrease [1] - The Baotou Steel incident did not cause the market to strengthen. In 2025, crude steel production decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, falling below 1 billion tons, and the supply and demand of steel both decreased. In the short and medium term, steel production and inventory both decreased. Among them, rebar production and inventory decreased slightly, hot - rolled coil production increased, and inventory decreased slightly. The apparent demand increased month - on - month. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Condition - On Monday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down, and they also closed down at night [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term operation is recommended. The support level for the main rebar contract is 3050, and the pressure level is 3200 [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval [1] - Pig: Interval [1][3] - Egg: Short high for near - term contracts [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn market is currently a mix of long and short factors. In the medium - term, maintain a broad - range trading idea; in the long - term, follow the pricing logic of substitution + planting cost and focus on policy guidance [1] - For pigs, in the short - term, the decline in pig prices is limited; in the medium - term, supply may increase before March and ease after April; in the long - term, supply pressure exists before August and far - month contracts are expected to decline [3] - For eggs, in the short - term, there is a risk of a slight decline; in the medium - term, the spot price will remain low; in the long - term, the price bottom cycle may be extended, and wait for over - culling to drive capacity reduction [3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Corn - **Market Review**: The night - session of corn futures oscillated weakly yesterday. The main 2603 contract dropped 0.48% to 2271 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: Deep - processing enterprise quotes fluctuated; port prices were stable; the grain - selling progress in the Northeast and North China accelerated [1] - **Market Logic**: Medium - term: multiple long and short factors; long - term: substitution + planting cost pricing logic [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Medium - term, maintain a broad - range trading idea. For the 2603 contract, the resistance at 2300 is verified, with support at 2250 - 2260; for the 2605 contract, the resistance at 2280 - 2290 is verified, with support at 2250 - 2260 [1] Pig - **Market Review**: Pig futures oscillated downward yesterday. The main 2603 contract dropped 2.09% to 11705 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: Pig price increase stabilized, and northern prices weakened. In 2025, pig slaughter, pork production increased, and the number of sows decreased. Piglet numbers and weights changed, and the fat - lean price difference widened [1][3] - **Market Logic**: Short - term: limited decline; medium - term: supply may increase before March and ease after April; long - term: supply pressure exists before August and far - month contracts are expected to decline [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For the 2603 contract, the resistance at 12180 - 12300 is verified, with support at 11500; for the 2605 contract, the resistance at 12350 - 12450 is verified, with support at 11750 - 11800; for the 2607 contract, the resistance at 13000 is verified, with support at 12400 - 12500; for the 2609 contract, the resistance at 14000 is verified, with support at 13350, and if it breaks 13350, the support moves down to 13000 [3] Egg - **Market Review**: Egg futures declined under pressure yesterday. The main 2603 contract dropped 1.34% to 3023 yuan/500KG [3] - **Important Information**: Egg prices were mainly stable, inventory increased slightly, the price of culled chickens was basically flat, and the estimated number of laying hens decreased [3] - **Market Logic**: Short - term: risk of a slight decline; medium - term: spot price remains low; long - term: price bottom cycle may be extended [3] - **Trading Strategy**: In anticipation of the decline in spot prices in February, look for short - selling opportunities in near - term contracts after a rally. For the 2603 contract, the resistance at 3050 - 3080 remains, with support at 3000 - 3020, and a break below 3000 can open further downward space [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the high uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, crude oil is oscillating. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has decreased, Sinopec has raised the sales price, and the downstream demand side has seen an increase in operating rates. Driven by the export of styrene, styrene prices have risen. In the short term, the price of pure benzene will be oscillating strongly, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5600 - 5900 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus should be on the port arrival volume and the future transaction price of the US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - On Monday, the price of the main - contract futures BZ2603 rose 32 yuan to 5779 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5645 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 115), and the spot price in Shandong was 5557 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 127). In terms of positions, the number of long positions increased by 1432 to 22,100, and the number of short positions decreased by 1749 to 27,400 [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 297,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons compared to the previous inventory of 324,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.33%. Compared with the inventory of 143,000 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 154,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 107.69%. From January 12th to January 18th, the incompletely - counted arrival volume was 0 tons, and the pick - up volume was about 27,000 tons [2] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 70.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%; the operating rate of phenol was 89%, a month - on - month increase of 4%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 77.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.9%; the operating rate of aniline was 73.2%, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 65.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. Caprolactam factories have started self - disciplined production cuts, and there is an expected decrease in the monthly demand for pure benzene from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam project has been put into production [2] - Price Adjustment: Sinopec's chemical sales raised the listed price of pure benzene by 100 yuan/ton today. The East China, North China, South China, and Central China branches' Yangtze River - related resources are all priced at 5600 yuan/ton, effective from January 19th [2] - Crude Oil Market: Geopolitical situations in Iran and other regions have eased, the potential supply risk has weakened, and international oil prices have fallen. The NYMEX crude oil futures were closed for the US Martin Luther King Memorial Day holiday with no settlement price; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract was at 63.94, down 0.19 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%. The China INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 2.9 to 442.6 yuan/ton, and fell 2.3 to 440.3 yuan/ton in the night session [2] Market Logic - The high uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical situation causes crude oil to oscillate. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has decreased, Sinopec has raised the sales price, and the downstream demand side has seen an increase in operating rates. Driven by the export of styrene, styrene prices have risen. In the short term, the price of pure benzene will be oscillating strongly, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5600 - 5900 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus should be on the port arrival volume and the future transaction price of the US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions cautiously [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a “downward” rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to the consecutive wrong policies of the United States [4] - The United States' return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US bonds, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] Summaries by Related Contents Global Economic News - BofA's Hartnett believes the current biggest risk comes from the rapid appreciation of the Japanese yen, South Korean won, and New Taiwan dollar, which may reverse Asian capital outflows and threaten the global market's liquidity environment. He is bullish on the long - term prospects of international stocks and gold, with China being his most favored market, and predicts that gold may break through $6,000 [1] - UBS states that the expansion basis of the US economy is rapidly narrowing, with almost all marginal improvements in investment, consumption, and employment tied to the single theme of artificial intelligence. If the AI investment boom cools down, the US economy will quickly lose its core support, and the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is about 50% [1] - The US warns South Korean semiconductor companies that if they do not invest in building factories in the US, they may face a maximum 100% tariff. However, due to unstable tariff expectations and the sharp decline of the South Korean won, South Korea's finance department says large - scale investment in the US is "unlikely to start in the first half of this year" [1] - The new version Claude Opus 4.5 of Claude Code shows amazing capabilities, but its popularity has intensified the market's panic about the disruption of the software industry. A basket of SaaS stocks tracked by Morgan Stanley has fallen 15% since the beginning of the year, the worst start since 2022 [1] - EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on $93 billion worth of US goods exported to the EU or restricting US companies from entering the EU market to counter US President Trump's tariff hikes on eight European countries for the sake of Greenland. Recently, many countries participated in the "Arctic Endurance" military exercise initiated by Denmark in Greenland [1] Global Economic Logic - The US has taken actions such as seizing Venezuela's oil and buying Greenland by force, which has led the global political order into a chaotic period and brought great uncertainty to the global economy. It has also imposed punitive tariffs on eight European countries, leading to potential tariff counter - attacks from European countries [2] - A US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Nomura predicts that uncertainties related to the Fed will peak from July to November 2026, and there may be a trend of "fleeing US assets" in the market at that time [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, purchases $40 billion in short - term bonds per month, and its balance sheet has restarted expansion [2] - A Goldman Sachs analyst warns that the current downward trend in Las Vegas gambling revenue is highly similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US has released a new version of its "National Security Strategy", abandoning global hegemony and planning to adjust economic relations with China to revitalize its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K - shaped differentiation has intensified, with high - income consumers maintaining spending resilience while low - and middle - income families are tightening their belts [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.18% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double its AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 to 5 years to meet the rising demand for AI services [2] - TSMC estimates its capital expenditure in 2026 to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a year - on - year increase of 27% to 37%, which is expected to reach a record high. Its strong Q4 performance and 2026 revenue guidance signal the continuation of the AI boom and restore investors' confidence in AI demand resilience [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views of the Report - The year-on-year comparison of 2025 data has limited significance, and attention should be paid to whether the inflection point of pig supply is confirmed. There is a possibility that the pig inventory will decline in the first quarter of 2026, and it is necessary to track the data to confirm the inflection point [12][13]. - In 2025, the contribution of pork to the supply increment was significantly enhanced, with an increase in pork production despite a decrease in pig slaughter compared to 2023 [12]. - The reduction of the sow inventory has been basically achieved, and it is expected that the sow inventory will not decline significantly in the next few months, which will limit the upward expectation of pig prices in the second half of 2026 [13][14]. - In the short term, the pig price has stopped rising and stabilized, with pressure from both supply and demand; in the medium term, the supply pressure will be relieved from April; in the long term, the supply pressure will be reduced after September [17]. - In 2026, the pig price in the first quarter may rise first and then fall, the supply in the second quarter is expected to form an inflection point, and the pig price in the second half of the year is expected to strengthen but with limited space [19][21][22]. Summary by Directory 1. 'Year-on-year' has limited significance, focus on whether the supply inflection point is confirmed - Comparison of 2025 and 2023 data: The annual pig inventory in 2025 increased by 0.5% year-on-year but decreased by 1.05% compared to 2023; the annual pig slaughter increased by 2.4% year-on-year but decreased by 0.1% compared to 2023; the pork production increased by 4.1% year-on-year and 2.5% compared to 2023 [12]. - Attention to the inflection point of pig supply: The pig inventory at the end of 2025 decreased by 1.63% compared to the third quarter. It is expected that the pig inventory at the end of the first quarter of 2026 may be lower than that at the end of 2025. It is necessary to track the data to confirm the inflection point [13]. - Sow inventory: The sow inventory decreased to 3961000 at the end of 2025, which is 101.6% of the normal reserve. It is expected that the sow inventory will not decline significantly in the next few months, which will limit the upward expectation of pig prices in the second half of 2026 [13][14]. 2. Review of previous report content 2026 January 19 Pig Futures Morning Report - Important information: The pig price continued to rise over the weekend due to snow and early downstream stocking. The national average pig price on the 18th was 13.17 yuan/kg, up 0.45 yuan/kg from last Friday. The sow inventory in October 2025 was 3990000. The number of new - born piglets increased from January to September 2025 (only decreased in July), and decreased in October and November, corresponding to a decrease in supply pressure from April [15]. - Market logic: In the short term, the pig price has stopped rising and stabilized; in the medium term, the supply pressure will be relieved from April; in the long term, the supply pressure will be reduced after September. Pay attention to the impact of diseases [17]. - Trading strategy: Maintain a range - trading strategy. Pay attention to the pressure and support levels of different contracts [18]. 2026 January 3 Special Report 'Key Transactions in the Pig Industry in 2026: The Expected Difference in Capacity Reduction' - First quarter of 2026: The pig price may rise first and then fall. The supply will increase before March and decrease after April. The demand has seasonal characteristics, with a weakening of the southern pickled meat consumption increment. The pig price may be low - level volatile and strong before the Spring Festival and weak after the Spring Festival [19][20]. - Second quarter of 2026: The pig supply is expected to form an inflection point, and the pig price may stop falling and stabilize, with an average price of 11 - 12.5 yuan/kg [21]. - Second half of 2026: The pig price is expected to strengthen but with limited space. The upward space in the third quarter depends on the impact of winter diseases, and the pig price in the fourth quarter depends on the sow inventory from December 2025 to February 2026. Pay attention to the sow inventory reduction rhythm, production efficiency, and slaughter weight [22][23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - In 2025, both the production of raw coal and coke in China reached historical highs. Despite a year - on - year decrease of 5243000 tons in coal imports, the domestic raw coal production increased by 7282000 tons year - on - year [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Coal Production - In 2025, the production of raw coal by large - scale industrial enterprises was 4.83 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. In December 2025, the production was 440 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%, with a daily average output of 14.1 million tons [2] Coke Production - In December 2025, the coke production was 4.274 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. From January to December, the production was 50.412 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The global rapeseed supply pattern in 2026 will shift to a looser state, with the inventory-to-consumption ratio rising, mainly driven by the increased production of rapeseed in Europe and Canada [18]. - The global soybean market in 2026 is expected to have a loose supply, with prices under downward pressure due to the record - high harvest in South America and the adjustment of China's procurement strategy [30]. - The domestic protein market in 2026 will face various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended for different time periods [35][36]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Sino - Canadian Trade Dispute - In 2024, Canada imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles on October 1st and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum products on October 22nd [4]. - In 2025, China counter - imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, and a 25% tariff on aquatic products and pork on March 8th. A 75.8% temporary anti - dumping deposit on Canadian rapeseed was preliminarily ruled and implemented in August. Canadian rapeseed exports to China basically stagnated, and China sought alternative supplies from India and Russia [5]. - In 2026, Canada and China reached a preliminary trade agreement. Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter at a preferential tariff rate of 6.1%. The tariff on Canadian rapeseed in China is expected to drop to about 15% by March 1st [6]. 2. China's Rapeseed Import Pattern in 2025 - The import sources have become more diversified, mainly including Canada, Australia, Russia, and Mongolia. Canada is still the largest supplier, but its import volume decreased significantly. Australia is an important supplementary source. Russia's import volume increased significantly, and Mongolia's import volume doubled [10][11]. - In the first half of 2025, the total import volume was 1.8 million tons, with Canada accounting for 94.47%. In the second half, the import volume decreased monthly due to Sino - Canadian trade policies [12]. 3. Global Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance in 2026 - The global rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise, and the supply pattern will become looser, mainly due to the increased production of rapeseed in Europe and Canada. The EU's rapeseed planting area and output are expected to recover, and Canada's rapeseed inventory may increase to 2.5 million tons due to policy - restricted exports. Australia's rapeseed planting area and output are expected to increase [18]. 4. Australia's Rapeseed Supply and Export - From 2021 - 2024, Australia's rapeseed output reached 8.4 million tons in 2022 and remained around 6 million tons in other years. From 2021 - 2022, its export volume was between 5 - 6 million tons. Domestic consumption has decreased significantly since 2022, and most are for export [26]. 5. Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance in 2026 - The global soybean market is expected to have a loose supply, and prices will face downward pressure. South America's bumper harvest will offset the US's production decline, and global inventory is expected to start destocking. The US will increase its soybean planting area by 4% in 2026, while the corn planting area will decrease by 3.8%. China's soybean procurement strategy will be diversified, and the procurement volume of US soybeans is expected to shrink to 8 - 9 million tons [30]. - In China, the state - reserve imported soybeans were auctioned continuously in 2024. In 2025, the import volume remained high, and the supply was sufficient [31]. 6. Outlook for the Domestic Protein Market in 2026 - There are macro risks such as Sino - US disputes and geopolitical situations. Fundamentally, there are factors such as the expected change in US soybean planting area, good weather, large supply from Brazil, sufficient domestic soybean reserves, stable demand from livestock farming, price - competitive alternative proteins, and the return of Canadian rapeseed [35]. - Different trading strategies are recommended for different time periods: from December 2025 to March 2026, prepare in advance due to tightened customs policies; from April to June 2026, focus on market trends and avoid buying basis; from July to September 2026, buy on dips; from October to December 2026, make decisions after the third - quarter market [35][36].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 上周锰硅主力合约 SM2603 收于 5828 元/吨，周跌幅 2.28%。硅铁主力合约 SF2603 收于 5570 元/吨，周跌幅 1.94%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、根据中国人民银行公告，自 1 月 19 日起，再贷款、再贴现利率下调 0.25 个百分点。 | | | | | 2、当地时间 1 月 17 日，美国总统特朗普通过社交平台称，因（丹麦自治领地）格陵兰 | | | | | 岛问题，自今年 2 月 1 日起，丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰向美 | | | | | 国出口的所有商品都将被加征 10%的关税。到今年 6 月 1 日，关税将提高至 25%。。 | | | | | 3、2025 年我国全社会用电量历史性突破 10 万亿千瓦时，达到 10.4 万亿千瓦时，同比 | | | | | 增长 5%。这一数字在全球单一国家中尚属首次，相当于美国全年用电量的两倍多，超过 | | | ...

格林大华期货研究院专题报告 期货研究院 能源化工 2026年1月19日 | 能源化工研究员： | 吴志桥 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3085283 | | 交易咨询证号： | Z0019267 | | 联系方式： | wuzhiqiao@greendh | | | .com | 2025年我国用电量创新高，能化板块影响几何 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 摘要： 成文时间：2026年1月19日星期一 国家能源局17日宣布，2025年我国全社会用电量历史性突破10万 亿千瓦时，达到10.4万亿千瓦时，同比增长5%。这一数字在全球单一 国家中尚属首次，相当于美国全年用电量的两倍多，超过欧盟、俄罗 斯、印度、日本四个经济体的年用电量总和。电力是经济运行的"血 液"，用电量持续增长直接反映了我国工业生产、居民消费和新兴产 业的活跃程度，5%的同比增速也印证了经济稳中向好的态势。 由于我国电解铝、化工等行业用电量占比高，特别是当市场可流 通煤资源偏紧的背景下，化工行业用电量增加，表明行业生产开工率 进一步提升，企业生产经营活跃度提升。同时也侧面反映 ...