Morning session notice 重要事项: 早盘提示 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1164.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 3.37%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 收于 1654.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 1.91%。夜盘焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 | 5 | 元至 | 2293 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价格下 | | | | | | | | | | 跌 | 29 | 元至 | 2213 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 | 80184 | 手至 | 61.4 | 万手，多头持仓 | 增加 | 92365 | 手至 | 74.99 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 82.5%，环比+2.6%。海外甲醇开工率 | 67.9%，环比-4.2%。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2、库存方面，中中国甲 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials sector is "oscillation" [3] Report's Core View - After the holiday, iron ore prices rose on the first trading day and continued to rise at night. The supply of iron ore arrivals increased, and the iron - water output showed signs of peaking. Although the market expected steel mills to have concentrated restocking demand, the impact was relatively short - lived. It is recommended to maintain short - term long positions in iron ore trading and set stop - losses [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Iron ore closed higher on the first trading day after the holiday and continued to rise at night [3] Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order, guiding industry associations to assess average industry costs [3] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 863,310 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,760 tons (0.4%); the total inventory was 1.60072 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 127,860 tons (8.7%); the weekly consumption was 751,430 tons, with building material consumption down 32.8% and plate consumption down 7.8% week - on - week [3] - New York Fed President Williams supported further interest rate cuts in 2025 to address potential sharp slowdown risks in the labor market [3] - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged in September, gave a moderately optimistic assessment of the euro - zone economy, and implied a high threshold for further policy easing [3] Market Logic - The arrival volume of iron ore increased, showing an increasing trend on the supply side. The iron - water output showed signs of peaking. The market expected steel mills to have concentrated restocking demand, but the impact was relatively short - lived [3] Trading Strategy - Continue to maintain short - term long positions in iron ore and set stop - losses [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "long (slightly bullish)" rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector [1] Core View - The global economy maintains an upward direction, with China implementing an AI+ initiative, becoming the preferred stock investment market, and international capital actively increasing positions in China's technology sector. Meanwhile, the AI field is witnessing large - scale infrastructure investments and developments [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Sam Altman reveals that OpenAI will make more aggressive infrastructure bets in the next few months, with a "cross - shareholding" model forming an "AI closed - loop economy" [1] - NVIDIA CEO says AI is intelligent enough, and the market is in two exponential growth stages, at the start of a new round of infrastructure construction and industrial revolution [1] - xAI is raising more funds than initially planned, with a total of $20 billion in the ongoing financing round, including NVIDIA's equity investment [1] - Alibaba has established a "robot and embodied AI group", and multi - modal basic models are being transformed into basic agents for real - world applications [1] - Japanese major brokerages are raising their year - end targets for the Nikkei 225 index due to expected economic stimulus plans [1] - In August, the new high of gold was mainly driven by financial investment participants, and the pricing logic shifted from "de - dollarization" to interest - rate cut expectations [1] Global Economic Logic - China implements an AI+ initiative, becoming the preferred stock investment market for 100 surveyed institutions managing $423 billion in emerging - market assets. International capital is actively increasing positions in China's technology sector [1] - OpenAI will make more infrastructure bets, Huawei's Ascend chips are leading, OpenAI promises to buy $6 billion worth of AMD chips, Samsung and Hynix join the Stargate, and Alibaba is promoting 380 billion yuan of AI infrastructure construction [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists, pressuring egg prices to decline, with prices in some regions dropping to feed costs. Attention should be paid to the intensity and scale of hen culling driven by low prices [3]. - In the long term, the continuous increase in egg - laying hen farming scale may lengthen the price bottom cycle. Wait patiently for the over - culling in the farming sector to drive the capacity - reduction process [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market News - During the holiday, egg prices fell unexpectedly, and the futures market opened with a significant gap down [1]. Spot Performance - During the holiday, the strong supply and weak demand in the egg market pressured egg prices to drop significantly. On October 8, the price of Hebei Guantao pink eggs was 2.49 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.35 yuan per jin compared to September 30 [3]. Futures Performance - Today, the near - month contract of egg futures opened with a significant gap down. The 2511 contract opened at 2890 yuan per 500 kg, a decline of 4.24%. As of the time of writing, the market was at 2902 yuan per 500 kg, while the far - month contracts were relatively stable [3]. Analysis Logic - Short - to - medium term: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, and egg prices are under pressure to decline, with some areas reaching feed costs. Focus on the intensity and scale of hen culling driven by low prices [3]. - Long term: The continuous increase in egg - laying hen farming scale may lengthen the price bottom cycle. Wait for the over - culling in the farming sector to drive capacity reduction [3]. Trading Strategy - Before the holiday, it was continuously suggested to maintain a short - selling strategy until large - scale concentrated hen culling occurs, and it was recommended to hold previous short positions. - Currently, the Hebei spot price has fallen below 2.5 yuan per jin. It was suggested in today's morning report that the market might open with a gap down, and previous short positions can continue to be held. It is recommended to consider gradually taking profits on dips [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects U.S. oil production to reach a new high this year, exceeding previous expectations, and warns that an oil supply surplus in the coming months will put pressure on oil prices. The agency has also raised its global oil production forecast due to higher - than - expected non - OPEC oil production growth this year and next [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Data Inventory Data - As of the week ending October 3, 2025, the total U.S. crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 827.246 million barrels, an increase of 4 million barrels from the previous week; U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 420.261 million barrels, an increase of 3.715 million barrels from the previous week; U.S. gasoline inventory was 219.093 million barrels, a decrease of 1.6 million barrels from the previous week; distillate inventory was 121.559 million barrels, a decrease of 2.018 million barrels from the previous week [1][2] - Commercial crude oil inventory was 0.59% lower than the same period last year and 4% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventory was 1.95% higher than the same period last year and 1% lower than the five - year average; distillate inventory was 2.57% higher than the same period last year and 6% lower than the five - year average [1] Other Operational Data - The U.S. refinery utilization rate was 92.4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week, with a growth rate of 1.09% [2] - U.S. crude oil production was 13,629 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 124 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.92% [2] - U.S. crude oil imports were 6,403 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 570 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, with a growth rate of 9.77% [2] - U.S. crude oil exports were 3,590 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 161 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, with a decline rate of 4.29% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Palm oil and soybean oil are not recommended to be chased high, with limited upside potential; rapeseed oil can be bought on dips with small long positions [4] Core View - With the news that Indonesia's B50 R & D is accelerating and Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to decline, the domestic vegetable oil sector opened higher and the palm oil led the rise. However, considering the current inventory situation of various oils, it is not advisable to chase high for palm oil and soybean oil, while rapeseed oil can be bought on dips [3][4] Summary According to Related Content Indonesia's B50 Policy - During the National Day holiday on October 7, Indonesian officials said that the B50 laboratory test was completed and planned to implement the B50 biodiesel plan next year, but the specific implementation time was undetermined. If B50 is implemented, Indonesia's demand for palm - based biofuel will rise to 20.1 billion liters, compared with 15.6 billion liters required by the current B40 policy [3] Malaysia's Palm Oil Situation - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (NPOB) will release the official monthly report on October 10. A survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September will decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production. The export volume in September is expected to be 1.427 million tons, a 7.7% month - on - month increase, the highest since November last year. The crude palm oil production in September is expected to be 1.794 million tons, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease, the lowest since June [3] Domestic Vegetable Oil Inventory and Investment Suggestions - The domestic soybean inventory is 7.79 million tons, a five - year high, and 40 ships of zero - tariff soybeans from Argentina are on the way. The soybean oil inventory of oil mills is 1.46 million tons, also a five - year high. The palm oil inventory is 524,000 tons, which can meet the rigid demand. Due to the China - Canada trade dispute, the subsequent arrival of rapeseed is low, and the rapeseed oil inventory of oil mills is being depleted. Among the three major oils, rapeseed oil has the strongest fundamentals and high resistance to decline [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - AI generalization has entered a large-scale application period, leading to an exponential increase in computing power demand across various industries. The US is facing a power crisis, and China is likely to experience a power shortage in 1 - 2 years. China will win the Sino-US AI game, and the semiconductor equipment and energy storage industries will be highly prosperous. Silver is a commodity that benefits from both endless computing power and endless electricity. The stock market style is shifting, and the CSI 300 Index is well-balanced. Gold will soar due to the Fed's policy shift, and the demand for commodities will decline. The RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Economic Cycles - **Kitchin Cycle**: China's current Kitchin cycle is expected to reach its peak in Q4 2025, while the US will reach its peak in Q1 2026 [6]. - **Juglar Cycle**: China's Juglar cycle is currently in an upward phase and is expected to peak in early 2027 [7]. - **Kuznets Cycle**: China's current Kuznets cycle is expected to bottom out around 2030 [8]. - **Kondratieff Cycle**: The current Kondratieff depression started in 2020 due to the COVID-19 impact and is expected to end around 2030, followed by a 10-year recovery period. China is the center of this technological innovation cycle, with AI being the most significant innovation [9]. AI Computing Power Demand - The implementation of the "AI +" action indicates China's full transition to an AI economy. The demand for computing power is growing exponentially, with token usage expected to increase by about 30 times in a year, 900 times in two years, and 27,000 times in three years. Tech giants are making substantial investments in computing power infrastructure, and global AI data center and chip investment is expected to reach $2.9 trillion by 2028 [10][11][14]. Power Demand and Crisis - The exponential growth in computing power demand leads to an exponential increase in power demand, intensifying the Sino-US power competition. The US is facing a power crisis as its aging power grid struggles to meet the growing demand. China is likely to experience a power shortage in 1 - 2 years despite its efforts to expand new energy power generation [15][16][23]. Semiconductor Equipment Industry - Huawei's AI chip computing power supernodes lead the industry, indicating China's full autonomy in the chip industry chain. The surging demand for computing power will drive the semiconductor equipment industry to remain highly prosperous, and related ETFs are expected to perform well [24][25][28]. Energy Storage and Photovoltaic Industries - China's strong power construction mobilization ability ensures its victory in the Sino-US AI game. The energy storage industry is highly prosperous due to the increasing power demand, and the photovoltaic industry is expected to recover in 2026 [33][36]. Silver - Silver benefits from both endless computing power and endless electricity. The demand for silver is expected to surge, widening the supply-demand gap and leading to a shortage of physical silver [37]. Stock Market - The stock market style is shifting, and the CSI 300 Index is well-balanced with limited downside and significant upside potential. The CSI 500 and CSI 300 indices have reached new highs, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index and ChiNext Index are expected to continue rising. A large amount of domestic and foreign capital is flowing into the A-share market [44][46][47]. Gold - The Fed's policy shift towards full employment and tolerance of inflation, combined with the potential for negative real interest rates in the US, will drive gold prices higher [48][49]. Commodities - Due to the anti-involution in the mid - and downstream industries, the demand for upstream resource commodities is weakening. However, copper prices may strengthen temporarily, and lithium carbonate may enter a new bull market in H2 2026 [50][51][52]. Bonds - As the stock market rises, bond funds are facing large-scale redemptions, and the bond market is becoming a source of funds for the stock market. The real interest rate is trending towards negative values [52]. Foreign Exchange - China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is likely to enter the 6 - level by the end of the year [53][55][56]. October Outlook for Major Asset Classes - **Equity Assets**: The stock market's wealth effect is attracting savings from the household sector, and overseas funds are flowing into Chinese assets. The semiconductor equipment index and battery index are expected to remain highly prosperous [3][56]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold will soar due to the Fed's policy shift, and silver may face severe supply shortages [3][56]. - **Commodities**: The demand for upstream resource commodities is weakening [3][56]. - **Bond Assets**: The bond market is becoming a source of funds for the stock market as the real interest rate turns negative [3][56]. - **Foreign Exchange Assets**: The offshore RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen and enter the 6 - level by the end of the year [3][56].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 9 月 30 日甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 28 元至 2328 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 价格下跌 11 元至 2242 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 13925 手至 70.45 万手，空 头持仓减少 14382 手至 84.21 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 82.5%，环比+2.6%。海外 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea start - up rate rebounded before the holiday. The agricultural sector is still in the off - season, and industrial demand is rising slowly. Upstream factories continued to accumulate inventory, and factory orders during the holiday were average. With the new round of bidding announced by India's RCF, the urea price is oscillating weakly, with a reference range of 1620 - 1720 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for now [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On September 30, the price of the urea main contract 2601 rose 13 yuan to 1670 yuan/ton, while the spot price in the central China's mainstream area dropped 20 yuan to 1590 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 7588 lots to 184,100 lots, and short positions decreased by 7400 lots to 226,600 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: The daily urea production in the industry is 199,400 tons, 1000 tons less than the previous working day. The current start - up rate is 85.2%, 0.08% higher than 85.13% of the same period last year [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.2182 million tons, an increase of 52,900 tons or 4.54% from last week. The sample inventory at urea ports is 496,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous period [1] - **Demand**: The start - up rate of compound fertilizers is 35.2%, a decrease of 3.3% from the previous period, and the start - up rate of melamine is 56.7%, an increase of 1.4% from the previous period [1] - **Tendering**: India's RCF announced a urea import tender, with the bid closing on October 15, offer validity until October 30, and the latest shipping date on December 10 [1] - **Economic Outlook**: The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the forecast in June this year, and will slow down to 2.9% in 2026, the same as the June forecast [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Before the holiday, the domestic urea start - up rate rebounded. The agricultural sector is in the off - season, and industrial demand is rising slowly. Upstream factories continued to accumulate inventory, and factory orders during the holiday were average. With the new round of bidding announced by India's RCF, the urea price is oscillating weakly [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for now [1]