Morning session notice Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周四国债期货主力合约开盘全线高开，早盘小幅回探后连续上涨，截至收盘 30 年 期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.37%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.15%，5 年期 TF2603 | | | | | 上涨 0.09%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.02%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周四央行开展了 99 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天无逆回购到期，当 | | | | | 日合计净投放 99 亿元。央行周四还开展 1.1 万亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为 3 | | | | | 个月（90 天），当日有 1.1 万亿元买断式逆回购到期，完全对冲。 2、资金市场：周四银行间资金市场隔夜利率保持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.47%，上一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval [1] - Live Pigs: Interval [1] - Eggs: Short in the Near - Month [3] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Mid - term, the corn market is a mix of long and short factors, with new grain sales progress and downstream inventory preparation as support, while import corn auctions and rumors may limit short - term price increases. A wide - range interval trading strategy is maintained. Long - term, the pricing logic is substitution + planting cost, with policy orientation being the key focus [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Short - term, supply and demand both increase, resulting in limited price fluctuations. Mid - term, supply may increase until March and ease from April. Long - term, supply pressure exists until September and may ease after September. Attention should be paid to epidemic impacts [1][3]. - **Eggs**: Short - term, the egg price is stable after a rise, with a possible decline in February. Mid - term, the supply pressure is not fully released. Long - term, large - scale egg production may limit price increases, and waiting for over - culling to drive capacity reduction is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn **Market Conditions Review** - The corn futures fluctuated and consolidated last night. The main 2603 contract rose 0.58% to 2263 yuan/ton [1]. **Important Information** - Deep - processing enterprises' purchase prices were stable with a slight increase. Northeast enterprises' mainstream purchase price was 2158 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; North China's average purchase price was 2252 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - Port prices showed a pattern of stability in the north and increase in the south. Jinzhou Port's purchase price was 2260 - 2265 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shekou Port's transaction price was 2400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - As of January 8, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 34,655 lots [1]. - In the second week of 2026, the grain sales progress in the Northeast was 56%, compared with 49% last year and a three - year average of 48%. In North China, it was 47%, compared with 50% last year and a three - year average of 46% [1]. **Market Logic** - Mid - term, the market is multi - faceted. New grain sales and downstream inventory preparation support prices, while auctions and rumors may limit price increases. A wide - range interval trading strategy is recommended. Long - term, the pricing logic is substitution + planting cost, with policy being key [1]. **Trading Strategy** - Maintain a wide - range interval trading strategy. For the 2603 contract, the pressure is at 2270 - 2280; for the 2605 contract, the pressure is at 2280, and if it breaks through 2280, the pressure moves up to 2300 [1]. Live Pigs **Market Conditions Review** - The live pig futures fluctuated weakly. The main 2603 contract fell 0.8% to 11,720 yuan/ton [1]. **Important Information** - The national average live pig price was 12.6 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg. Today's early - morning prices are expected to be stable with local adjustments [1]. - In October 2025, the number of fertile sows was 39.9 million, dropping below 40 million for the first time in 17 months [1]. - From January to September 2025, the number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month (except in July). In October and November, it decreased by 1% and 0.8% respectively [1]. - As of January 8, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 124.1 kg, down 0.29 kg from the previous week [1]. - On January 8, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.37 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin [1]. - As of January 8, the number of live pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 918 lots [1]. **Market Logic** - Short - term, supply and demand both increase, resulting in limited price fluctuations. Mid - term, supply may increase until March and ease from April. Long - term, supply pressure exists until September and may ease after September [1][3]. **Trading Strategy** - Adopt an interval trading strategy. For the 2603 contract, the pressure is at 12,000 and the support is at 11,500 - 11,600; for the 2605 contract, the pressure is at 12,400 - 12,500 and the support is at 12,000 - 12,100; for the 2607 contract, the pressure is at 13,000 and the support is at 12,700; for the 2609 contract, the pressure is at 14,000 and the support is at 13,500 - 13,700 [3]. Eggs **Market Conditions Review** - The egg futures fluctuated strongly. The main 2603 contract rose 0.1% to 3009 yuan/500KG [3]. **Important Information** - The national egg price was stable with local increases. The average price in the main production areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; in the main sales areas, it was 3.55 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin [3]. - The overall inventory was stable. The average production - link inventory was 1.04 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.1 days, both unchanged [3]. - The average price of old laying hens was 4.1 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. As of January 8, the weekly culling age was 484 days, unchanged [3]. - In December, the number of laying hens in production was about 1.344 billion. The theoretical estimated number in January is 1.334 billion [3]. - As of January 8, the number of egg futures warehouse receipts increased by 5 to 7 lots [3]. **Market Logic** - Short - term, the egg price is stable after a rise, with a possible decline in February. Mid - term, the supply pressure is not fully released. Long - term, large - scale egg production may limit price increases [3]. **Trading Strategy** - Consider short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts after price increases. For the 2603 contract, if it breaks below 3000, further decline is possible. Pay attention to the culling situation in the first quarter [3].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 8 元至 1776 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1750 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 12274 手至 22.7 万手，空头持仓增加 4253 手至 24.66 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.4 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.14 万吨；较去年同期 | | | | | 增加 2.79 万吨；今日开工率 83.28%，较去年同期 77.47%回升 5.81%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 102.22 万吨，较上周增加 0.30 万吨，环比增 | | | | | 加 0.29%。尿素港口样本库存量 14 万吨，环比-3.2 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 58.5%，环比-3.1%。 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyester chip in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillating". [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester chip price will follow the raw materials to fluctuate in the short - term, and the reference range for the main contract PR2603 is 5950 - 6180 yuan/ton. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the main price of polyester chips dropped by 48 yuan to 5996 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade polyester chips was 6030 yuan/ton (- 5), and the price of South China polyester chips was 6090 yuan/ton (+0). Long - position holdings increased by 522 lots to 60,700 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 121 lots to 62,600 lots. [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply, Cost and Profit**: This week, the domestic polyester chip production was 335,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.21. The weekly average production capacity utilization rate of polyester chips was 73.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31. The production cost was 5623 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 178 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit was - 182 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. [2] - **Export**: In November 2025, China's polyester chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons. [2] - **Production in December 2025**: The output of China's polyester chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The production capacity utilization rate was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points. [2] - **Oil Price**: Geopolitical situations in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran remain uncertain. The international oil price rose. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 02 rose 1.77 dollars/barrel to 57.76 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.16%. ICE Brent oil futures contract 03 rose 2.03 dollars/barrel to 61.99 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%. China INE crude oil futures contract 2602 fell 6.8 to 418 yuan/ton and then rose 6.6 to 424.6 yuan/ton in the night session. [2] - **Military News**: According to the U.S. "The War Zone" website on January 5th, a large number of U.S. military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently, which triggered speculation about possible special operations in the region. [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The U.S. attacked Venezuela, but the Venezuelan oil facilities were not affected for the time being. The medium - to - long - term crude oil supply may increase after the U.S. "takeover", which is negative for market sentiment. This week, the supply of polyester chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly made rigid restocking. The new device was put into production as expected, having little impact on the market. [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. [2]

早盘提示 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国 AI 科技类上市公司总市值约 5 万亿美元，美国 AI 科技公司总市值约 30 万 | | | | | 亿美元，中国还没有一家万亿美元级的 AI 或者高科技公司。中国 AI 科技公司的发 | | | | | 展潜力巨大，出现万亿美元级公司只是时间问题。 | | | | | 2、美国军方宣称扣押两艘油轮。美国东部时间 7 日 8 时 43 分，美国欧洲司令部在 | | | | | 社交媒体上发布消息称，在北大西洋扣押一艘俄罗斯油轮。约半小时后，美国南方 | | | | | 司令部在社交媒体上发布消息称，在国际水域扣押一艘无国籍油轮。 | | | | | 3、AI 正在走"双轨路线"：顶级大模型不断变强，但其能力会在 6–12 个月内 | | | | | 被压缩进更小、更便宜的模型。小模型快速追赶，GPT-5 级推理能力下放到可本地 | | | | | 运行、低成本形态。真正爆发的将是海量小模型和应用生态。 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the sugar sector in the agricultural, forestry, livestock group is "sideways"; for the rubber series in the energy and chemical sector, it's "sideways" for natural rubber and synthetic rubber, with synthetic rubber showing a "sideways with a slight upward bias" [1][4] Group 2: Core Views - For sugar, externally, the ICE raw sugar price increase has been limited by the short - term trading range due to a lack of information and long - term supply pressure. Domestically, although the Zhengzhou sugar price is slightly stronger with the support of the overall commodity market and the start of the Spring Festival stocking, the increasing supply from Guangxi may drag down the price. The short - term upward trend may lack continuous momentum [1] - For rubber, natural rubber is supported by rising overseas raw material prices and positive market sentiment despite increasing domestic inventories. The short - term upward trend has resistance. Synthetic rubber is supported by rising raw material prices, but high - price transactions are difficult due to downstream price - pressing. The upward trend also has challenges [4] Group 3: Summary by Category Sugar - **Market Review**: On January 8, SR605 closed at 5281 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.42%, and its night - session closed at 5286 yuan/ton; SR609 closed at 5293 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.34%, and its night - session closed at 5299 yuan/ton [1] - **Important News**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar increased by 17 yuan/ton to 5314 yuan/ton. As of January 5, 2026, in India's Maharashtra state, 195 sugar mills were in operation, 4 less than the same period last season, but the sugar output reached 532.27 tons. Bihar state plans to expand sugarcane planting. In Yunnan, the sugar output as of the end of December 2025/26 season was 39.23 tons, an increase of 6.54 tons year - on - year. In Guangxi, 73 sugar mills were in operation as of December 31, 2025/26 season, 1 less than the same period last year, and the sugar output decreased by 80.95 tons year - on - year [1] - **Market Logic**: Externally, the raw sugar market is calm, and the price is in a sideways range. Domestically, the overall commodity market supports the Zhengzhou sugar price, but the increasing supply from Guangxi may limit the upward movement [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the previous short positions in SR605 and observe the performance in the 5300 - 5315 pressure range. Those not yet in the market should wait for short - selling opportunities. Consider the double - selling strategy for options [1] Rubber - **Market Review**: On January 8, RU2605 closed at 16180 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.81%; NR2602 closed at 13150 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.08%; BR2602 closed at 12155 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.75% [4] - **Important News**: The raw material prices in Thailand increased slightly. As of January 4, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased. The prices of some rubber products, such as whole - latex and 20 - grade Thai standard rubber, also increased. The price of butadiene rose, and the prices of synthetic rubbers such as cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber increased [4] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber is supported by cost and market sentiment, but there is resistance in the short - term upward trend. Synthetic rubber is supported by cost, but high - price transactions are difficult [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The pressure ranges for RU, NR, and BR are 16400 - 16500, 13300 - 13400, and 12200 - 12400 respectively. Consider partial profit - taking for previous long positions, and stop - profit and exit when facing strong pressure or a change in market sentiment. Those not yet in the market are recommended to wait and see [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The coking coal and coke market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term due to the expected increase in downstream replenishment demand near the Spring Festival and market sentiment driven by news speculation. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the spot market and inventory trends. If the coking coal fails to effectively break through the upper pressure level of 1300, short positions can be considered on rallies [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Market Quotes] - On the previous day's daytime session, the main contract of coking coal (Jm2605) closed at 1164.0, up 6.20% from the daytime opening; the main contract of coke (J2605) closed at 1773.0, up 7.13% from the daytime opening. During the previous night session, the main contract of coking coal (Jm2605) closed at 1215.0, up 4.38% from the daytime close; the main contract of coke (J2605) closed at 1781.5, up 0.48% from the daytime close [1]. [Important Information] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Action Plan for the Integration and Empowerment of Industrial Internet and Artificial Intelligence", accelerating the deployment and application in industrial enterprises in key industries such as raw materials, equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and electronic information, and promoting more than 50,000 enterprises to implement the transformation and upgrading of new industrial networks [1]. - On January 7, the ex - factory price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 50 yuan in total, reporting 2980 yuan/ton [1]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 35.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the daily output of clean coal was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 3.197 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 94,000 tons [1]. - Shaanxi Coal Industry's coal production in December 2025 was 14.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.03%; the cumulative coal production in 2025 was 174.9056 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.59% [1]. [Market Logic] - There were news that the coal production capacity in Shaanxi, Shanxi and other places would be reduced in 2026, which led to a sharp rise in the coking coal futures market. Although the news has not been verified, after the continuous decline of coking coal prices, there was a lack of rebound drivers, and the previous low had strong support. Near the Spring Festival, the expected increase in downstream replenishment demand and news speculation pushed up market sentiment and the futures market [1]. [Trading Strategy] - In the short term, the market is expected to be bullish due to sentiment. Pay attention to the upper pressure level of 1300. If it cannot break through effectively, short positions can be considered on rallies [1].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 推荐理由 | 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 8 日星期四 | | | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal sector (silicon iron and manganese silicon) is "oscillating and bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the main contracts of silicon iron and manganese silicon rose on the previous trading day, mainly affected by the daily limit of coking coal and coke. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment has gradually started, significantly boosting market confidence [1]. - For manganese silicon, the price of manganese ore increased before that of manganese silicon, providing strong cost support. The market still has certain expectations for downstream winter storage, but the progress of the new round of steel procurement needs attention [1]. - Driven by short - term sentiment, the market is bullish, but the demand for the two types of silicon remains to be tested after the steel procurement is finalized and the emotional stimulus weakens [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On the previous trading day, the main contract of manganese silicon SM2603 closed at 6000, up 1.39% compared with the opening of the day session. The main contract of silicon iron SF2603 closed at 5860, up 1.45% compared with the opening of the day session [1]. Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Action Plan for the Integration and Empowerment of Industrial Internet and Artificial Intelligence", accelerating the deployment and application in key industries such as raw materials, equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and electronic information, and promoting more than 50,000 enterprises to implement the transformation and upgrading of new industrial networks [1]. - On January 7th, the ex - factory price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 50 in total, reaching 2,980 yuan/ton [1]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 35.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. The daily output of clean coal was 261 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 3 thousand tons. The clean coal inventory was 3.197 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 94 thousand tons [1]. - Shaanxi Coal Industry: In December 2025, the coal output was 1.474 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.03%. The cumulative coal output in 2025 was 174.9056 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.59% [1]. Market Logic - Yesterday, the double - silicon market opened with a gap mainly due to the daily limit of coking coal and coke. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment has started, boosting market confidence. For manganese silicon, the rising price of manganese ore provides cost support, and the market has expectations for downstream winter storage [1]. Trading Strategy - The short - term sentiment drives the market to be bullish. After the steel procurement is finalized and the emotional stimulus weakens, the demand for double silicon remains to be tested. The short - term view is bullish [1].

Morning session notice 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周三夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格下跌 36 元至 2244 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 | | | | | 价格上涨 5 元至 2273 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 29083 手至 45.03 万手，空 | | | | | 头持仓增加 33834 手至 57.5 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.2%，环比+0.8%。海外甲醇开工率 60.9%，环比+0.6%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 153.72 万吨，较上一期数据增加 4.08 吨。 | | | | | 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 5.72 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 1.64 万吨。 | | | | | 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 44. ...