Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper in the non - ferrous sector is "Bearish - biased" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The current upward trend of copper prices is mainly due to concerns about potential US tariffs on refined copper, leading to a concentration of global copper liquidity in the US. Additionally, the market's increased expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is beneficial for metals with strong financial attributes like copper. However, considering factors such as the ongoing strike at a Chilean copper mine and new domestic resource discoveries, the overall investment recommendation for copper is bearish - biased [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - The night - session closing price of the main Shanghai copper contract CU2602 was 100,230 yuan/ton, down 1.76% from the previous night - session close. The night - session closing price of the secondary main contract CU2603 was 100,340 yuan/ton, down 1.83%. As of 06:00 Beijing time, the closing price of the main COMEX copper contract was equivalent to 89,352 yuan/ton (after exchange - rate conversion), down 0.79% from the previous trading day. The LME copper main contract CA03ME closed at 12,702 dollars/ton (equivalent to 88,669 yuan/ton after exchange - rate conversion), down 1.53% [1] Important Information - On January 8, according to Wenhua Finance, Chile's central bank data showed that Chile's copper export revenue in December was 5.83 billion dollars, a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. - On January 8, according to Gelonghui, the strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in northern Chile continued, with the concentrator operating at only 30% of its normal capacity and its inventory of supplies likely to be exhausted in a few days. - On January 7, according to the official website of the Ministry of Natural Resources, during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China's new round of mineral exploration breakthrough strategy discovered 10 large oil fields, 19 large gas fields, and significantly increased the resource reserves of uranium, copper, gold, lithium, and potash. - On January 7, according to Cailian Press, Citi said that driven by strong momentum, copper prices would reach 14,000 dollars per ton in the next three months, but without new catalytic factors, copper prices might peak this month [1] Market Logic - The current copper price increase is due to concerns about US tariffs on refined copper, causing LME copper inventory in Europe to decline from nearly 70,000 tons in April to less than 15,000 tons, while COMEX copper inventory has risen from less than 100,000 short tons in April to over 450,000 short tons. Also, Trump's statement about the Fed chair and the market's increased expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut are beneficial for metals with strong financial attributes [1] Trading Strategy - No trading strategy is provided for now [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In December 2025, China's overall inflation level rebounded moderately. It is expected that the year-on-year increase of CPI in January this year will decrease compared to December last year, and the year-on-year decline of PPI in January will narrow compared to December last year [5][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with a market expectation of 0.75% and a previous value of 0.7%. In 2025, the national consumer prices were flat compared to the previous year. Food prices increased by 1.1% year-on-year, non-food prices increased by 0.8% year-on-year, consumer goods prices increased by 1.0% year-on-year, and service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year [2][7] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, non-food prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, consumer goods prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and service prices were flat month-on-month. Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month [2][8] - **Eight major categories**: In December, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol increased by 0.2% month-on-month, housing prices decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, transportation and communication prices were flat month-on-month, medical care prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, education, culture and entertainment prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, clothing prices were flat month-on-month, daily necessities and services prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, and other supplies and services increased by 2.8% month-on-month [9] - **Impact factors**: The increase in the year-on-year increase of food prices in December was an important factor driving the relatively large year-on-year increase of CPI in December. The month-on-month increase of industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy by 0.6% affected the month-on-month increase of CPI by about 0.16 percentage points [2][8] - **January forecast**: The current agricultural product prices are conducive to the increase of the year-on-year CPI data in January, and have little impact on the month-on-month CPI data in January. It is speculated that refined oil prices will have a downward pull on the year-on-year CPI in January and may have a slight downward pull on the month-on-month CPI in January [11] PPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers nationwide decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a market expectation of a 2.0% decrease and a previous value of a 2.2% decrease. In 2025, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.6%. Production material prices decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, and living material prices decreased by 1.3% year-on-year [3][12] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Production material prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and living material prices were flat month-on-month [4][13] - **Industry performance**: In December, industries with a relatively large year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices included the oil and gas extraction industry, coal mining and washing industry, etc.; industries with a relatively large year-on-year increase included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry. Industries with a relatively large month-on-month increase in prices included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry; industries with a relatively large month-on-month decline included the oil and gas extraction industry and oil, coal and other fuel processing industries [12][15] - **Impact factors**: The price increases of precious metals represented by gold and silver prices, and non-ferrous metals represented by copper in December played a relatively large role in the month-on-month increase of PPI in December [5][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term upward momentum for silicon and manganese silicon is difficult to sustain, and the market experienced a significant correction yesterday. The market is expected to fluctuate around the fundamentals in the short term. Silicon and manganese silicon are expected to maintain a range - bound trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Yesterday, during the daytime session, the main contract of manganese silicon SM2603 closed at 5892.0, a 1.08% decline compared to the daytime opening. The main contract of silicon iron SF2603 closed at 5668, a 3.28% decline compared to the daytime opening [1]. 3.2 Important Information - At the beginning of 2026, the EU carbon tariff was officially implemented, significantly increasing the cost of steel exports to the EU. Indonesia will face the most significant increase in carbon costs, reaching 604.9 euros/ton at a certificate price of €80/tCO2. China's carbon cost is 161.14 euros/ton [1]. - The investigation of key coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia shows that no official documents or notices regarding production capacity reduction have been received, and market rumors have not had a substantial impact on coal production and sales [1]. - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 85.3%, a 5.7% week - on - week increase. The daily average production of raw coal was 1.899 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 127,000 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 4.734 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons [1]. - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.1859 million tons, a 0.4% week - on - week increase. The total inventory was 12.5392 million tons, a 1.77% week - on - week increase. The weekly consumption of the five major steel products was 7.9862 million tons, a 5% week - on - week decrease. Among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 13.5% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates decreased by 0.8% week - on - week [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - The short - term upward push for silicon and manganese silicon is unsustainable, and the market corrected significantly yesterday. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment has gradually started, significantly boosting market confidence. For manganese silicon, the price of manganese ore rose earlier than that of manganese silicon, providing strong cost support. On the demand side, the tendering of mainstream steel mills is proceeding slowly, and the announced tender prices are mostly concentrated around 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton. Manganese silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound trend in the short term [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - After the price increase due to news - based disturbances was mostly reversed yesterday, it is expected that the market will fluctuate around the fundamentals in the short term [1].

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 9 日星期五 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周四主力合约期货BZ2603价格下跌29元至5436元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格5340 | | | | | 元/吨（环比+35），山东地区现货价格 5212 元/吨（环比+2）。持仓方面，多头持 | | | | | 仓增加 425 手至 1.98 万手，空头持仓增加 646 至 2.54 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，12 月国内纯苯产量 193.4 万吨，同比+1.3%。11 月纯苯进口量 45.96 | | | | | 万吨，环比-7.4%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：31.8 万吨，较上期库存 3 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 9 日星期五 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格下跌 9 元至 2234 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 格下跌 53 元至 2220 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 18529 手至 46.6 万手，空头 持仓增加 68980 手至 63.8 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.4%，环比+1.1%。海外甲醇开工率 60.9%，环比+0.6%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 153.72 万吨，较上一期数据增加 4.08 吨。 | | | | | 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 5.72 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 1.64 万吨。 | | | | | 中国甲醇样本生 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified. Investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.57% to $4487.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 1.19% to $76.69 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.21% to 1001.82 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver fell 2.82% to 18368.0 yuan per kilogram [1] - On January 8, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.86. COMEX gold recovered after hitting the bottom and closed slightly higher, while COMEX silver declined slightly after a sharp drop [2] Important Information - As of January 8, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 1067.13 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 115.6 tons to 16215.43 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 13.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 86.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 38.0%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 57.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 4.6% [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week was 208,000, slightly lower than the forecast of 210,000. The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits increased by 56,000 to 1.914 million, indicating an increase in the difficulty for the unemployed to find new jobs and the accumulation of long - term unemployment risks [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court has set this Friday as the day to issue an opinion on the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff plan. Analysts expect that if the court rules the tariff illegal, the stock market may be boosted, while the U.S. bond market may face selling pressure [1] Market Logic - The U.S. ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, slightly lower than the forecast. The number of job openings in November decreased from 7.45 million to 7.146 million. The U.S. ISM services PMI in December rose to 54.4, the highest since October 2024 [1] - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year remains below 20%. CME Group raised the performance margins for gold and silver futures on December 31. The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for silver futures on January 7 [2] - Starting from January 8, the annual weight reset of the Bloomberg Commodity Index will lead to the sale of over $6 billion in gold futures and over $5 billion in silver futures within a five - day roll - over window [2] - Geopolitical risks increased due to the U.S. attack on Venezuela on January 3 [2] Trading Strategy - Adjust positions and control risks due to intensified short - term volatility of precious metals [2]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The vegetable oil sector is expected to remain weak in the medium to long - term due to sufficient supply, while the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) market will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the medium term [2][3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Performance on January 8 - Soybean oil: The main contract Y2605 closed at 7944 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day - on - day, with an increase of 20895 lots in open interest; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 7814 yuan/ton, up 0.08% day - on - day, with an increase of 2413 lots in open interest [2] - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 8612 yuan/ton, up 0.58% day - on - day, with an increase of 326 lots in open interest; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 8500 yuan/ton, up 0.57% day - on - day, with an increase of 1940 lots in open interest [2] - Rapeseed oil: The main contract OI2605 closed at 8956 yuan/ton, down 1.53% day - on - day, with a decrease of 20113 lots in open interest; the second - main contract OI2609 closed at 8943 yuan/ton, down 1.52% day - on - day, with an increase of 977 lots in open interest [2] Important Information - China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [2] - In November 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons (2.21 billion bushels), lower than the revised 7.09 million short tons in October but higher than 6.3 million short tons in November last year [2] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [2] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month [2] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 1.6% compared with the same period in November [2] - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory addition program in the second half of 2026 [2] Market Logic - Externally, international crude oil has risen, boosting the strength of U.S. soybean oil. Domestically, soybean oil is under pressure due to negative rapeseed - related news; palm oil is oscillating due to a combination of inventory pressure and strong international crude oil; rapeseed oil has fallen rapidly due to China - Canada negotiation news [2][3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Vegetable oils are generally bearish but show some differentiation. Soybean oil is bearish, palm oil is oscillating in the medium term and bearish in the long term, and short positions in rapeseed oil should be held [3] - Arbitrage: Exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil spread [3] Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Performance on January 8 - Soybean meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 31418 yuan/ton, down 1.03% day - on - day, with an increase of 2782 lots in open interest; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 2875 yuan/ton, down 0.45% day - on - day, with an increase of 3858 lots in open interest [3] - Rapeseed meal: The main contract RM2605 closed at 2358 yuan/ton, down 2.52% day - on - day, with an increase of 64896 lots in open interest; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2419 yuan/ton, down 1.87% day - on - day, with an increase of 7102 lots in open interest [3] Important Information - U.S. farmers are expected to increase soybean planting area to 85 million acres in the 2026/2027 season [3][4] - As of December 18, 2025, the U.S. soybean exports to China in the 2025/26 season were 659,000 tons [4] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons [4] - As of January 3, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 season soybean harvest progress was 0.1% [4] - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 season soybean sowing was 82% complete [4] - Brazil's soybean exports in December 2025 are expected to be 3.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 69% [4] Market Logic - Externally, the bottom of U.S. soybeans is supported, but the upside is limited. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal has increased, while rapeseed meal has been affected by news and has seen a high - level correction [3][4][5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The two - meal market should maintain a bottom - oscillating mindset in the medium term and engage in intraday trading [5] - Arbitrage: No arbitrage strategy is proposed for now [5]

研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 9 日星期五 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日日盘焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1237.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.23%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1765.0，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.45%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1177.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 1.05%。焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1730.5，环比日盘收盘下 跌 1.95%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 区间震荡 | 【重要资讯】 1、2026 年伊始欧盟碳关税正式落地，钢铁出口欧盟成本将明显增长。据测算，碳成本 增加最多的国家为印尼，以证书价格€80/tCO2 为例，碳成本达到 604.9 欧元 ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 9 日星期五 | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周三螺纹热卷大幅上涨。夜盘收涨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | 年全球新船订单较 | | | 1、根据克拉克森的数据，2025 2024 年高位水平下降 27%，但已 | | | | | 超过 2021-2023 年平均订单水平。集装箱船依旧是最亮眼的板块，全年新船订单高 | | 年全年创纪录的 | | | 达 644 艘 475.9 万 TEU，超过 2024 467.4 万 TEU，再创历史新高。 | | | | | 2025 年集装箱船新造船总投资也进一步增加到了 593.64 亿美元（约合人民币 | | 亿美元。 | | | 4151.83 亿元），略高于 2024 年的 585.68 | | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given reports [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - **Sugar**: In the short - term, the price of raw sugar may be difficult to break through the oscillation range due to intertwined long and short factors, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate in a low range because of supply pressure despite the start of the Spring Festival stocking market [1] - **Red Dates**: The red date futures price is under pressure. In the short - term, it may oscillate, and the medium - to - long - term price center may move down due to lack of positive expectations after the stocking season [3] - **Rubber**: The upward movement of natural rubber is blocked, with resistance above in the short - term. The price of synthetic rubber is supported by cost, but high - price transactions are difficult, and some early long positions can be closed for profit [4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Review**: SR605 contract closed at 5279 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.04%, and the night session closed at 5279 yuan/ton; SR609 contract closed at 5290 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.06%, and the night session closed at 5292 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: The spot price of sugar in Guangxi increased by 1 yuan/ton to 5315 yuan/ton; the sugar production in India's Maharashtra increased; Brazil's sugar export in December 2025 increased by 7.94 tons compared to 2024; Yunnan's sugar production in the 2025/26 season as of December increased by 6.54 tons year - on - year; in Guangxi, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season decreased year - on - year; the sugar warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the previous short positions of SR605 and pay attention to the performance in the 5300 - 5315 pressure range; wait for short - selling opportunities for non - participants; consider the double - selling strategy for options [1] Red Dates - **Market Review**: CJ605 contract closed at 9075 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.82%; CJ609 contract closed at 9240 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.96% [3] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 red date sample points decreased by 349 tons week - on - week; the price of Hebei's special - grade red dates decreased by 0.04 yuan/kg; the number of arrival vehicles in Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 6; the red date warehouse receipts remained unchanged [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the long - term short positions of CJ605 contract; short - sell at high levels for non - participants [3] Rubber - **Market Review**: RU2605 contract closed at 16120 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.37%; NR2603 contract closed at 13065 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.65%; BR2602 contract closed at 12195 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.33% [4] - **Important Information**: The prices of Thai rubber raw materials increased; the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased; the average weekly prices of Shanghai full - latex, 20 - standard Thai rubber in Qingdao and 20 - mixed Thai rubber in Qingdao increased; the capacity utilization rates of China's semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased; the price of butadiene increased, and the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber increased [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the activity ranges of RU (15750 - 16400), NR (12700 - 13300) and BR (11900 - 12400); consider closing early long positions of rubber series for profit [4]