Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The 12 - month Chinese manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, while the service industry remained below the boom - bust line. The stock market's sharp rise on Monday suppressed bond market bulls, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Review** - On Monday, Treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, then fell back and fluctuated narrowly around the previous close until the close. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.05%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.03% [1] **Important Information** - **Open Market**: On Monday, the central bank conducted 13.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 482.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained low. DR001's weighted average for the day was 1.26% (previous trading day: 1.24%); DR007's weighted average for the day was 1.43% (same as the previous trading day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly increased compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 2.91 BP to 1.38%, the 5 - year rose 1.31 BP to 1.64%, the 10 - year rose 1.57 BP to 1.86%, and the 30 - year rose 2.93 BP to 2.28% [1] - **Central Bank Data**: In December 2025, the central bank net - injected 50 billion yuan through open - market Treasury bond trading operations, marking the third consecutive month of such operations. In December, the central bank conducted 3.5361 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, withdrew 3.4542 trillion yuan, achieving a net injection of 81.9 billion yuan. Other - term reverse repurchases had a net injection of 400 billion yuan. Through MLF, there was a net injection of 100 billion yuan, and through SLF, a net injection of 7.1 billion yuan [1] - **US Data**: The US December ISM manufacturing index slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months [1] **Market Logic** - In December, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line. Manufacturing production and demand both entered the expansion range. The December service industry business activity index was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line. The central bank's Q4 monetary policy committee meeting emphasized adjusting the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy. The new regulations on fund sales fees are favorable for the bond market. The stock market rose sharply on Monday, suppressing bond market bulls [1][2] **Trading Strategy** - Traders should conduct band operations [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一夜盘主力合约 | 2605 | 期货价格上涨 | 47 | 元至 | 2271 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 | | | | | | | | | 价格下跌 | 30 | 元至 | 2220 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 | 18586 | 手至 | 45.2 | 万手，空 | 头持仓增加 | 42410 | 手至 | 57.2 | 万手。 | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 91.2%，环比+0.8%。海外甲醇开工率 | 60.9%，环比+0.6%。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 | 147.74 | 万吨，较上一期数 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 6 日星期二 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 工 | 尿素 | 震荡偏 多 | 【行情复盘】 周一尿素主力合约 260 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 6 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格下跌 5 元至 5405 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格 5290 元/吨（环比-60），山 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the pure benzene industry is "Oscillation" [2] Report's Core View - After the US attacked Venezuela, the Venezuelan oil facilities were not impacted for the time being. The medium - to long - term crude oil supply may increase after the US "takes over", which is negative for market sentiment. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate, while the downstream demand side's operating rate increased. In the short term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5380 - 5580 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on port arrivals and the future transaction price of the US dollar - denominated pure benzene market. The trading strategy is to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday night, the price of the main futures contract BZ2603 fell by 5 yuan to 5405 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 5290 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan month - on - month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5233 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan month - on - month). In terms of positions, the long positions increased by 812 lots to 18,000 lots, and the short positions increased by 1114 lots to 23,100 lots [2] Important Information - **Supply**: In November, China's pure benzene production was 1.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.93%. The pure benzene import volume in November was 459,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4%. In November 2025, the monthly import volume was 459,624.998 tons, the cumulative import volume was 5,071,144.069 tons, the monthly import amount was 323.069632 million US dollars, the monthly import average price was 702.90 US dollars/ton, the import volume decreased by 7.48% month - on - month, increased by 5.93% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared with the same period last year [2] - **Inventory**: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 318,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous inventory, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%; compared with the inventory of 185,200 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 132,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.71%. From December 29th to January 4th, the estimated arrival was about 25,000 tons and the提货 was about 7,000 tons [2] - **Demand**: The operating rate of styrene was 70.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%; the operating rate of phenol was 78%, a month - on - month increase of 3%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 74.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the operating rate of aniline was 62.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 63.6%, a month - on - month increase of 4%. Caprolactam plants started to cut production voluntarily, and there was an expected decrease in the monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam was put into production. The trading volume in Shandong was in the hundreds, with the low end at 5225 and the high end at 5240 [2] - **International Oil Price**: The market believes that after the conflict between the US and Venezuela, it will take time for Venezuela's production to recover and increase, and international oil prices have risen. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract was 58.32, up 1.00 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.74%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract was 61.76, up 1.01 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.66%. China's INE crude oil futures 2602 contract fell 9.7 to 426.8 yuan/barrel, and rose 1.3 to 428.1 yuan/barrel at night [2] - **News Event**: On January 3rd local time, US President Trump said that the US had successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and took them out of Venezuela. On the same day, a US official said that Venezuelan President Maduro was captured by members of the US military's highest special mission force, the Delta Force, in the early morning of January 3rd [2] Market Logic - The US attacked Venezuela, but Venezuelan oil facilities were not affected in the short term. After the US "takes over", the medium - to long - term crude oil supply may increase, which is negative for market sentiment. The pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate this week, while the downstream demand side's operating rate increased. In the short term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely [2] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "long" [2] 2. Core View - The weekend US attack on Venezuela has escalated geopolitical conflict risks, but its direct impact on methanol is limited. Last week, both ports and inland areas saw inventory accumulation. After mid - January, the expected decrease in imported arrivals and the restart plan of olefin plants mean methanol faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2180 - 2300. It is recommended to wait and see on long positions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 47 yuan to 2271 yuan/ton. The spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China fell by 30 yuan to 2220 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 18,586 hands to 452,000 hands, and short positions increased by 42,410 hands to 572,000 hands [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 60.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4774 million tons, an increase of 6,490 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 39,800 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 25,100 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 422,600 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.61% [2] - **Demand**: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 78,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,400 tons. The orders of sample enterprises to be shipped are 183,000 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period. The olefin operating rate is 88.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7%, unchanged from the previous period; the methyl chloride operating rate is 81.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the acetic acid operating rate is 77.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 42.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; the MTBE operating rate is 68%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [2] - **Import**: In November 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was 259.09 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. Among them, the imports from Saudi Arabia were the largest at 344,900 tons, with an average import price of 261.53 US dollars/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [2] - **Geopolitical Event**: On January 3, local time, US President Trump claimed that the US had successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and taken them out of Venezuela. The same day, a US official said that Venezuelan President Maduro was captured by members of the US military's highest special mission force, the Delta Force, in the early morning of January 3 [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The geopolitical conflict has a limited direct impact on methanol. With inventory accumulation last week, the expected decrease in imports after mid - January and the olefin plant restart plan, methanol has a situation of weak current situation but strong future expectations. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2180 - 2300 [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Wait and see on long positions [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term price of bottle chips will fluctuate with raw materials. The reference range for the main contract PR2603 is 5950 - 6150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The price of the main bottle chip contract in the overnight session on Monday rose 34 yuan to 6020 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips was 5980 yuan/ton (-70), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6020 yuan/ton (-70). Long - position holdings increased by 4952 lots to 55,000 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 4171 lots to 57,000 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply, Cost, and Profit**: This week, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 335,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.21. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 73.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5623 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 178 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 182 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [2] - **Export**: In November 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons [2] - **Production in December 2025**: The output of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The capacity utilization rate this month was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points [2] - **Oil Price**: The market believes that after the US - Venezuela conflict, it will take time for Venezuela's oil production to recover and increase, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.00 dollars/barrel to 58.32 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.74%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.01 dollars/barrel to 61.76 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2602 contract fell 9.7 to 426.8 yuan/ton, and rose 1.3 to 428.1 yuan/ton in the overnight session [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The US attacked Venezuela, but Venezuela's oil facilities were not affected for the time being. After the US "takes over", the medium - and long - term crude oil supply may increase, which is negative for market sentiment. This week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly replenished stocks rigidly. The expected commissioning of new plants has little impact on the market [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2]

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、多家外资机构纷纷发布报告，对 2026 年中国资产表现持积极观点。在企业盈利 | | | | | 持续改善、科技创新突破不断涌现，以及估值吸引力日益凸显的推动下，中国资产 | | | | | 具备了持续上升的坚实基础。 | | | | | 2、马斯克表示，其脑机接口公司 Neuralink 将于 2026 年开始对脑机接口设备进行 | | | | | "大规模生产"。并同步推进流程高度精简、几乎完全自动化的手术方案，最关键 | | | | | 的突破在于，设备中的电极丝将直接穿过硬脑膜，而无需将其切除。 | | | | | 3、AI 算力需求激增与存储芯片价格反弹，推动三星电子与 SK 海力士股价飙升，带 | | | | | 动日韩股市齐创新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - By observing the price difference changes between the low and high points in 2025, it is found that the price of main coking coal fluctuates greatly in both Shanxi region and Mongolian coal region. The coal types with the largest price fluctuations from the low - point to the high - point are mainly distributed in the Linfen area of Shanxi. Compared with the price fluctuations in 2024 and 2023, the price fluctuation range in 2025 narrows, but the whole year shows a V - shaped reversal trend similar to that in 2023 [3] Summary by Catalog Price Difference and Fluctuation Data of Coking Coal in Different Regions in 2025 - In the Shanxi region, for low - sulfur main coking coal such as Anze Yuhua, the lowest price in 2025 is 1180, the highest is 1710, the price difference is 530, and the amplitude compared to the lowest point is 44.92%, with an annual average price of 1406. For high - sulfur main coking coal like Liliu Duizhen, the lowest price is 813, the highest is 1382, the price difference is 569, and the amplitude compared to the lowest point is 69.99%, with an annual average price of 1035 [1] - For Mongolian coal, the lowest price of 288 Port Mongolian 5 raw coal in 2025 is 780, the highest is 1170, the price difference is 390, and the amplitude compared to the lowest point is 50.00%, with an annual average price of 922. The lowest price of Wubulang Mongolian 5 cleaned coal is 868, the highest is 1434, the price difference is 566, and the amplitude compared to the lowest point is 65.21%, with an annual average price of 1104 [1] - In the Shaanxi region, the lowest price of Yulin Shenshupan coal in 2025 is 535, the highest is 797, the price difference is 262, and the amplitude compared to the lowest point is 48.97%, with an annual average price of 653. For coking - blending coal like Huangling, the lowest price is 740, the highest is 1060, the price difference is 320, and the amplitude compared to the lowest point is 43.24%, with an annual average price of 888 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified, and investors are advised to adjust positions and control risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Quotes** - On Friday, COMEX gold futures rose 0.02% to $4341.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.35% to $72.27 per ounce. On the last trading day before the New Year's Day, Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.85% at 977.56 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures closed down 4.27% at 17,074 yuan per kilogram [1] **Important Information** - As of January 2, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 5.43 tons from the previous day to 1065.13 tons, while the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained unchanged at 16,444.14 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 17.2%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82.8%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 44.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 7.0% [1] - On December 30, CME announced the second increase in precious metal margins within a week, which took effect after the close of trading on December 31 [1] - On December 31, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending December 20 decreased by 16,000 to 199,000, lower than the expected 218,000. The number of continuing jobless claims last week dropped to 1.87 million [1] - Since January 1, 2026, China's silver exports have continued to implement the "one - order - one - review" license system. Only enterprises with an annual output of over 80 tons (over 40 tons for western enterprises) and continuous export performance for 3 years can apply for export qualifications. The policy was announced by the Ministry of Commerce in October 2025 [1] - Starting from Thursday, January 8, the annual reweighting of the Bloomberg Commodity Index will lead to the sale of over $6 billion in gold futures and more than $5 billion in silver futures within a five - day roll - over window [1][2] **Market Logic** - The minutes of the Fed's December meeting showed that FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials had significant differences. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January remains below 20% [2] - CME increased the performance margins of gold and silver futures again on December 31, reflecting the exchange's deep concern about the abnormal volatility of the precious metals market [2] - On January 2, the US dollar index rose 0.21% to 98.46. COMEX gold and silver both rose and then fell, with gold closing basically flat and silver rising more than 2% [2] - On January 3, the US attacked Venezuela, and geopolitical risks may drive up precious metal prices in the short term [2] **Trading Strategy** - Adjust positions and control risks in the face of intensified short - term volatility of precious metals [2]