Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6][77]. Core Insights - The company reported a core net profit of 10 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, with the contribution from recurring business rising to 60%, an increase of 9 percentage points [10][1]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 94.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [10][1]. - The gross margin improved to 24.0%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year, with the gross margin for development and sales business increasing by 3 percentage points to 15.6% [10][1]. - The company’s financial health remains robust, with a net interest-bearing debt ratio of 39% and an asset-liability ratio of 55% excluding advance receipts [64][1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 94.9 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, and a core net profit of 10 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year [10][1]. - The core net profit margin was 10.5%, a decrease of 3 percentage points, primarily due to a 4 percentage point decline in the core net profit margin of the development and sales business [10][1]. Development and Sales Business - The revenue from the development and sales business was 74.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, while the contracted sales amount was 110.3 billion yuan, down 12% [25][2]. - The company ranked third in industry sales, maintaining a leading position in 15 cities [25][2]. - The land acquisition amount was 44.7 billion yuan, a 75% increase year-on-year, with a land reserve area of 48.95 million square meters as of the end of the first half of 2025 [25][2]. Operational Performance of Shopping Centers - The operating income from the property management business was 12.1 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, with rental income from shopping centers reaching 10.4 billion yuan, up 10% [50][3]. - The overall occupancy rate of shopping centers was 97.3%, remaining stable year-on-year, with a retail sales figure of 110.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% increase [50][3]. Financial Health - The company’s weighted average financing cost was 2.79%, a decrease of 32 basis points compared to the end of 2024 [64][1]. - It is expected that the recurring business income will cover twice the dividend and interest expenses for the full year of 2025, indicating low debt repayment pressure [64][1]. Profit Forecast - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 24.5 billion yuan and 24.1 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 3.43 yuan and 3.39 yuan [77][1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][57][58] Core Viewpoints - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 24.1% year-on-year increase in Q2 2025, driven by robust order backlog and demand in both automotive and robotics sectors [1][2][57] - The company is positioned as a leader in the laser radar and perception solutions market, focusing on AI-driven robotics technology and aiming to become a global leader in this field [21][24][57] - The company has successfully secured numerous production orders from major automotive manufacturers, including 133 models for mass production, indicating strong market penetration [2][46][57] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.55 billion yuan, with a net profit of -0.51 billion yuan, showing improvement from previous quarters [1][8] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 27.70%, an increase of 13 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting improved product mix and cost management [14][57] - The company forecasts revenues of 24.89 billion yuan, 36.17 billion yuan, and 52.75 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with expected net profits turning positive by 2026 [4][58] Product Development - The company launched its first product from the all-solid-state digital E platform, E1, in the first half of 2025, marking a significant milestone in digital laser radar technology [2][26][57] - The company has introduced new products in the robotics sector, including the AC1 and AC2, which enhance robotic vision capabilities [30][38][57] - The company has established partnerships with over 20 robotics companies, indicating strong collaboration and market presence in the robotics field [40][57] Market Position - The company has a strong order backlog, with 30 automotive manufacturers and 119 models secured for mass production, including significant international contracts [2][46][57] - The company is recognized for its innovative digital laser radar solutions, which are increasingly being adopted in advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and robotics applications [24][57] - The company is actively expanding its presence in the global market, with orders from overseas manufacturers covering key regions such as Japan, North America, and Europe [2][46][57]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][17]. Core Insights - The company has maintained stable revenue with a slight decline of 0.8% year-on-year, achieving a revenue of 4.36 billion yuan in the first half of 2025. The gross profit was 3.72 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 85.3%, down by 1.2 percentage points [1][8]. - The company reported a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 1.36 billion yuan, which is a 24.6% increase year-on-year. Adjusted operating net profit was 1.14 billion yuan, up by 2.1% [1][8]. - The company has entered a significant collaboration with Pfizer regarding the PD1xVEGF dual antibody 707, with an upfront payment of 1.25 billion USD and potential milestone payments up to 4.8 billion USD, along with a double-digit percentage of sales revenue [2][14]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's R&D expenses were 548 million yuan, representing a 15.0% increase, with an R&D expense ratio of 12.6% [1][8]. - Sales expenses were 1.62 billion yuan, up by 1.4%, with a sales expense ratio of 37.1%. Management expenses increased significantly by 40.9% to 283 million yuan, with a management expense ratio of 6.5% [1][8]. - The company's leverage ratio improved significantly, decreasing from 19.7% at the end of the previous year to 9.9% [1][8]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.38 billion yuan, 2.71 billion yuan, and 3.07 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.9%, 13.7%, and 13.3% [3][17]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios (PE) for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30.2, 26.6, and 23.5, respectively [3][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a 9% growth in net profit, with a revenue of 9.11 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 470 million yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [1][7]. - The property management segment generated 8.8 billion yuan in revenue, a 16.8% increase year-on-year, driven by growth in existing projects, new project conversions, and value-added services from specialized companies [1][7]. - The gross margin for basic property management improved, with revenue of 6.85 billion yuan and a gross margin increase of 0.61 percentage points to 11.56% [1][13]. - The company signed new annual contracts worth 1.764 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with third-party projects contributing 1.592 billion yuan, of which large projects accounted for 58% [2][14]. - The asset management business showed steady growth, with 72 commercial projects under management and a 10.3% year-on-year increase in concentrated commercial sales [2][14]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 19 billion yuan and 20.8 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 920 million yuan and 1.02 billion yuan [3][17]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.87 yuan and 0.96 yuan for 2025 and 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.9 and 12.5 [3][17]. - The overall gross margin for property management remained stable, while the gross margin for basic property management continued to improve [1][13].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is experiencing a performance bottoming out, with improvements expected in the future. In Q2 2025, national raw coal production remained high, but commodity coal consumption decreased by 11.8% month-on-month during the off-season, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance and high social inventory, which pressured coal prices downwards. Except for the coking coal sector, which benefited from the price dual-track system, the performance of coal companies generally faced pressure [2][11] - The supply side is tightening due to rainfall and production checks, with July's production decreasing by 40 million tons month-on-month and 9 million tons year-on-year. The four major producing regions all saw a reduction in output, with Xinjiang experiencing the largest month-on-month decrease [3][30] - Demand improved significantly in July, entering the peak season, with national commodity coal consumption reaching 450 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5%. The upcoming non-electric consumption peak season in September and October is expected to support coal demand [4][67] - Inventory levels across various segments have decreased, with port inventories lower than the same period last year, which may provide support for coal prices [5] - Coal prices are expected to rebound due to supply contraction expectations and the upcoming non-electric demand peak season. The price of thermal coal has rebounded close to 100 yuan/ton, and the downside potential is limited [5] Summary by Sections Q2 2025 Performance Summary - The coal industry is at a performance bottom, with improvements anticipated. Q2 2025 saw a high national raw coal output but a significant drop in commodity coal consumption during the off-season, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and falling prices [2][11] Supply - July's coal production decreased significantly due to rainfall and production checks, with a month-on-month reduction of 40 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 9 million tons. The supply tightening expectations remain [3][30] Demand - July marked the peak demand season, with a notable improvement in coal consumption. National commodity coal consumption reached 450 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5%. The upcoming non-electric consumption peak season is expected to sustain coal demand [4][67] Inventory - Inventory levels across various segments have decreased, with port inventories lower than the same period last year, potentially supporting coal prices [5] Price - Coal prices are expected to rebound due to supply contraction expectations and the upcoming non-electric demand peak season. The price of thermal coal has rebounded close to 100 yuan/ton, with limited downside potential [5]

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify hot sectors. The model calculates the distance between the latest closing price and the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days using the formula: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of pullback[11][12][13] - The report evaluates the "250-day new high distance" model as an effective tool for momentum and trend-following strategies, supported by academic studies and practical applications in stock selection frameworks like CANSLIM and "Stock Market Wizard"[11][18] - The report applies the "250-day new high distance" model to major indices, showing their respective distances from the 250-day high as of September 5, 2025: - Shanghai Composite Index: 1.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 1.86% - CSI 300: 1.40% - CSI 500: 2.76% - CSI 1000: 3.41% - CSI 2000: 3.64% - ChiNext Index: 0.00% - STAR 50 Index: 7.04%[12][13][30] - The report identifies industries and concept indices close to their 250-day highs, such as Electric Power Equipment & New Energy, Nonferrous Metals, Basic Chemicals, and Mechanical sectors, as well as thematic indices like Wind Photovoltaics, Sodium-ion Batteries, and New Energy Vehicles[13][15][30] - The report tracks individual stocks that have reached 250-day highs in the past 20 trading days, identifying 1,715 stocks. The industries with the highest number of such stocks are Mechanical (242), Electronics (221), and Basic Chemicals (190). The sectors with the highest proportion of new-high stocks are Nonferrous Metals (68.55%), Electronics (45.85%), and Comprehensive (43.48%)[19][20][31] - The report introduces a screening method for "stable new-high stocks" based on factors such as analyst attention, relative price strength, price path smoothness, and trend sustainability. Key metrics include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - Relative price strength: Top 20% in 250-day price change - Price path smoothness: Stock displacement ratio - Trend sustainability: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days[24][26][27] - Using the above criteria, the report identifies 50 stable new-high stocks, with the highest representation in Technology (19 stocks) and Cyclical sectors (13 stocks). Within Technology, Electronics dominate, while Basic Chemicals lead in Cyclical sectors[27][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23]. Core Views - The company has solidified its leading position in lithium cobalt oxide, with rapid growth in sales and a positive outlook for new material development [2][3]. - The demand for cobalt lithium is expected to increase significantly due to the inclusion of electronic consumer products in the recycling program starting in 2025, which will boost battery consumption [2]. - The company is enhancing its product offerings in the power battery cathode materials sector, with a focus on high voltage and high power lithium-ion batteries [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 307 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 28%, with revenues of 7.534 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 9.99%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 4.06%, up 0.28 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenues of 4.557 billion yuan, a 48% increase year-on-year and a 53% increase quarter-on-quarter [1]. Sales Growth - The sales volume of cobalt lithium cathode materials reached 28,800 tons in the first half of 2025, a 57% increase year-on-year, with Q2 sales of approximately 16,500 tons, up 34% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company maintained a market share of 52% in the cobalt lithium sector, reinforcing its industry-leading position [2]. Product Development - The company is advancing its solid-state battery materials and new structure materials, with ongoing production of oxide-based cathode materials and successful testing of lithium sulfide samples [3]. - The company is also developing differentiated products for various applications, including consumer electronics and electric vehicles, to enhance its competitive edge [3]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast has been revised upward, with expected net profits of 789 million yuan, 986 million yuan, and 1.125 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 60%, 25%, and 14% [3][4].

Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - Urbanization rate in China increased by 31 percentage points from 2000 to 2024, reaching 67%[11] - Housing sales volume peaked at nearly 1.8 billion square meters in 2021, declining to approximately 970 million square meters by 2024, nearly halving[11] - Unsold housing inventory rose from 2020, reaching 750 million square meters by 2024, with a disposal period of 9.3 months[11] Group 2: Economic Impact of Real Estate - Real estate sector's contribution to GDP decreased from 8.3% (2018-2020) to 6.3% in 2024, a decline of 2 percentage points[18] - Real estate development investment is expected to drag nominal GDP by 0.9 percentage points in the first half of 2024[24] - Real estate-related tax revenue dropped from 19% to 13% of general public revenue, while land transfer income reliance fell from nearly 30% to 17%[31] Group 3: Wealth and Employment Effects - Real estate accounts for approximately 60% of household assets, with a 10% decline in housing prices leading to a 6% reduction in total household assets[32] - The real estate sector employs about 5.09 million in urban non-private units, contributing to 13% of total employment[37] - The decline in housing prices negatively impacts consumer sentiment and inflation, reducing nominal growth rates[31] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term cycles may have reached a bottom, while long-term cycles continue to decline, with ongoing price decreases observed since the second quarter of 2023[71] - The demand for housing is projected to be around 7.5 to 8 billion square meters annually, driven by urban population growth and housing upgrades[177] - The current policy focus is on stabilizing the market, with measures to support housing completion and debt restructuring for real estate companies[176]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][22]. Core Views - The company's lead-acid battery business remains stable, with a revenue of 191.5 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 5% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 15.97% [2]. - The lithium battery segment has shown rapid growth, achieving a revenue of 540 million yuan in H1 2025, up 193% year-on-year, with improved profitability [2]. - The company is accelerating technological iterations and diversifying its technology routes, including solid-state and sodium-ion batteries, with successful product developments and applications [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 869 million yuan, a decrease of 27% year-on-year, with total revenue of 20.917 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.679 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year but up 4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 448 million yuan, down 35% year-on-year but up 7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company's gross margin for Q2 2025 was 15.14%, a decrease of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 4.32%, down 1.35 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Earnings Forecast and Financial Indicators - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.957 billion yuan, 2.304 billion yuan, and 2.602 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 18%, and 13% [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.01 yuan, 2.37 yuan, and 2.68 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are forecasted to be 15.0, 12.8, and 11.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月05日 科博达（603786.SH） 科博达收购参股公司智能科技 60%股权，打开高单价驾驶域控成长曲线 |  公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 汽车·汽车零部件 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 唐旭霞 | 0755-81981814 | tangxx@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980519080002 | | 证券分析师： | 杨钐 | 0755-81982771 | yangshan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523110001 | 事项： 公司公告：公司发布《科博达技术股份有限公司关于购买股权暨关联交易的公告》，科博达技术股份有限 公司拟以现金方式收购上海科博达智能科技有限公司 60%股权，交易价格为 3.45 亿元，本次交易资金来 源于公司自有资金。科博达智能科技主业智能驾驶域控制器，2024 年、2025 年 1-7 月分别实现营收 1.78、 2.99 亿元，归母净利润-0.42、-0.35 亿元。科博达智能科技承诺 20 ...