证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 泸州老窖（000568.SZ） 优于大市 2025Q3 收入及净利润延续下滑，预计中档酒产品表现较好 2025Q3 收入及净利润延续下滑，稳步释放风险。2025Q1-3 公司实现营业总收入 231.3 亿元/同比-4.8%，归母净利润 107.6 亿元/同比-7.2%；其中 2025Q3 营业 总收入 66.7 亿元/同比-9.8%，归母净利润 31.0 亿元/同比-13.1%。 2025Q3 毛利率同比-0.95pcts，预计和产品结构中档酒收入占比提升有关。我们 预计第三季度受政策和需求下滑影响，公司 300 元及以下价位产品表现更好：国 窖预计下滑幅度高于整体，特曲 60 版以西南地区政商务场景为主、略有下滑， 300 元特曲老字号预计增速领先，窖龄企稳、其中 30 年较好，大众价位头曲也 有增长，其他产品以调整下滑为主。 第三季度加大销售费用投放力度，净利率同比-1.75pcts。2025Q3 公司销售费用 率同比+1.74pcts 至 13.5%，需求压力下公司增加面向消费者的费用投放，促进 开瓶和拉升品牌形象；我们预计渠道端费用以奖励经销商动作付费为主，如 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][24] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year growth of 116% in the third quarter and a 62% increase for the first three quarters of 2025 [1][7] - The substantial performance improvement is attributed to both volume and price increases, with the average tax-inclusive spot price of silver rising by 23.51% year-on-year [1][7] - The company is expected to see a notable increase in gold production in 2026 due to the commencement of trial production at Honglin Mining [3][18] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.29%, and a net profit of 323 million yuan, up 61.97% [1][7] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 55.89%, significantly up from 43.47% in the previous year, while the net margin improved to 23.83% [2][11] - In the third quarter alone, revenue reached 746 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.98% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34.80% [1][7] Production and Capacity Expansion - The company acquired a 53% stake in Honglin Mining in December 2023, with plans to acquire the remaining 47% by October 2024 [3][18] - The core asset of Honglin Mining, the Caiyuanzi Copper-Gold Mine, has gold resources of 17.1 tons and is expected to start formal production in 2026 [3][18] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.785 billion yuan, 3.406 billion yuan, and 3.955 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.4%, 22.3%, and 16.1% respectively [4][22] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 584 million yuan, 857 million yuan, and 1.091 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 49.7%, 46.8%, and 27.3% respectively [4][22]

投资建议：考虑公司三季度收入大超公司指引上限且指引积极，上修 2025-2027 年公司收入 1990/2321/2668 亿美元（前值 1936/2208/2540 亿美元）,调整幅度+3%/+5%/+5%。考虑到公司本季度 159 亿美元一次性 资产减计费用，以及后续高资本开支指引，调整 2025-2027 净利润为 585/773/875 亿美元（前值 725/811/928 亿美元）。 维持"优于大市" 评级。 风险提示：社交媒体与广告端竞争加剧；宏观经济压力；AI 发展低于预期； 证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 脸书(META PLATFORMS)（META.O）25Q3 财报点评 优于大市 AI 赋能广告推荐，关注后续资本开支收入转化效率 财务表现：META 25Q3 广告量价继续加速增长。①整体：三季度营收为 512 亿美元，同比+26%。其中广告收入为 501 亿美元（同比+26%）。营 业利润为 205 亿美元、OPM 为 40%（同比-3pcts、环比-3pcts），净利润 为 27 亿美元（同比-83%），净利润受到美国《One Big Beautiful Bill Act》实 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 兴业证券（601377.SH） 优于大市 投资反转，蓄势待发 兴业证券发布 2025 年三季度报。2025 年前三季度公司实现营业收入 92.77 亿元，同比提升 39.96%（调整后）；实现归母净利润 25.21 亿元,同比提升 90.98%；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为 24.78 亿元，同比提升 92.81%，对 应 EPS0.28 元，同比提升 94.99%；ROE 为 4.37%，同比增加 2.06pct。业绩 上涨主要因三季度 A 股市场震荡上行，沪深两市股票基金交易额同比显著放 大，经纪业务和自营投资业务创收增加带动营业收入和净利润同比增长。 市场活跃度增强，经纪、自营业务为主要驱动力。2025 年前三季度，资本市 场交投活跃度提升，经纪业务收入 21.61 亿元，同比上涨 64.71%。2025 年 前三季度，公司投资规模稳健提升，金融资产规模同比增长 11.48%至 1,598.63 亿元，实现投资业务收入（含公允价值变动）34.28 亿元，同比提 升 58.91%，主因交易性金融工具投资收益同比增加。 两融市场创新高，信用业务业绩亮眼。2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company faced short-term performance pressure, reporting a loss in Q3 due to a challenging consumption environment and new store ramp-up costs. Q3 revenue was 566 million yuan, down 4.77%, with a net loss of 41.8 million yuan compared to a profit of 2.44 million yuan in the same period last year [1][10] - The company is expected to benefit from the traditional wedding banquet peak season in Q4, with improved performance anticipated due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays. However, the demand trend for next year remains to be observed [3][20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company reported a revenue of 566 million yuan, a decrease of 4.77%, and a net loss of 41.8 million yuan, compared to a profit of 2.44 million yuan in the same period last year. For the first three quarters, total revenue was 1.896 billion yuan, an increase of 1.66%, but net profit decreased by 63.79% to 30.2 million yuan [1][10] - The company opened 3 new Fu Mao hotels and 2 new Tongqinglou locations in the first three quarters, contributing to revenue growth, but these new stores incurred significant losses during their ramp-up period, totaling approximately 60 million yuan in losses for the first three quarters [2][17] Cost and Cash Flow Management - Financial expenses increased by 30% year-on-year, reaching 62.65 million yuan in the first three quarters. Capital expenditures have slowed down, with approximately 690 million yuan spent, a decrease of about 24% year-on-year. Despite profit pressure, the company generated a net cash flow from operating activities of 506 million yuan, up 37.41% [3][18] Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the formal dining banquet sector, with market share expected to increase amid industry consolidation. The performance in Q3 is seen as a bottoming out, with potential recovery in Q4 and beyond, contingent on demand recovery and effective management adjustments [20][21]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 韵达股份（002120.SZ） 优于大市 三季度单票盈利企稳，反内卷有望继续助力业绩修复 2025 年三季度公司业绩表现承压。2025 年前三季度营收 374.93 亿元 （+5.6%），归母净利润 7.3 亿元（-48.2%），扣非归母净利润 6.6 亿元 （-44.2%）；2025 年三季度单季营收 126.6 亿元（+3.3%），归母净利润 2.0 亿元（-45.2%），扣非归母净利润 2.0 亿元（-40.6%）。 公司业务量稳步增长，市占率有所下滑，行业反内卷带动单票价格环比回升。 2025 年第三季度，公司业务量实现了 64.2 亿件（同比+6.6%），公司市占率 为 13.0%，同比减少 0.8 个百分点。今年 1-7 月份快递行业价格竞争逐步白 热化，但是监管层于 8 月开始实行"反内卷"措施，行业提价从产粮区逐步 扩散至大部分非产粮区，从而带动公司的单票快递收入 8 月和 9 月环比分别 提升了 0.01 元和 0.10 元，最终使得公司单票快递收入同比降幅从二季度的 5.4%收窄至三季度的 2.1%，三季度的单票快递收入环比提升了 0.03 元至 ...

债基个数：按照 Wind 的基金最新分类标准，截止 2025 年三季度末，发 行在外的短期纯债基金共有 338 只，数量占据全基金市场的 2.74%。据 Wind 可统计数据来看，三季度共发行了短期纯债基金 3 只，与去年同期 比有所回落。 债基规模：截至 2025 年三季度末，已披露三季度季报的短期纯债基金总资 产和净资产分别为 9,907 亿元和 8,901 亿元，较上季度末分别减少了 2,439 亿元和 1,869 亿元。平均规模来看，截止 2025 年三季度末，平均总资产和 净资产分别为 29 亿元和 26 亿元，较上季度末分别回落了 8 亿元和 6 亿元。 杠杆率：2025 年三季度末，整体法口径下短期纯债基金平均杠杆率为 1.11，较上季度末下降了 0.04。平均法口径下短期纯债基金平均杠杆率 为 1.12，较上季度末下降了 0.04。 基金净值增长率：基金业绩方面，2025 年三季度短期纯债单季平均净值 增长率为 0.18%，增长率较上季度回落。 大类资产配置：三季度债券资产占据最高的比重 95.6%，占比较上季度回 落 2.3%；买入返售资产占 2.7%，占比较上季度回升 1.7%；银行存款和 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with operating income reaching 18.244 billion yuan, up 27.76% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.871 billion yuan, up 24.08% year-on-year [1][3] - The growth in performance is attributed to the sustained uptrend in market conditions and increased trading activity, with all major business segments showing notable revenue growth [1] - The brokerage and credit businesses are the main drivers of revenue growth, with net income from brokerage fees increasing by 79.67% year-on-year [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net interest income of 1.278 billion yuan, up 88% year-on-year, and the scale of funds lent increased by 35% to 12.928 billion yuan [1] - The investment banking business saw revenue growth of 21.59% year-on-year, driven by increased IPO and bond underwriting activities, with equity underwriting amounting to 25.124 billion yuan, a 136% increase year-on-year [2] - Asset management and proprietary trading also showed recovery, with net income from asset management fees rising by 30.01% year-on-year [2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for the company has been revised upwards for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of 11.811 billion yuan, 12.779 billion yuan, and 13.961 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.7%, 8.2%, and 9.3% respectively [3][4] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 14.9, 13.7, and 12.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, while the price-to-book (PB) ratios are 1.4, 1.3, and 1.2 [3][4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 圆通速递（600233.SH） 优于大市 反内卷带动三季度利润修复，四季度业绩弹性可期 2025年三季度公司业绩增长回暖。2025年前三季度营收541.6亿元（+9.7%）， 归母净利润 28.8 亿元（-1.8%），扣非归母净利润 27.7 亿元（-1.7%）；2025 年第三季度单季营收 182.7 亿元（+8.7%），归母净利润 10.5 亿元（+11.0%）， 扣非归母净利润 10.1 亿元（+9.1%）。 公司件量增速高于行业，市占率同比稳步提升，行业反内卷带动单票价格环 比回升。2025 年第三季度，公司业务量实现了 77.2 亿件（同比+15.0%）， 公司市占率为 15.6%，同比提升 0.2 个百分点。今年 1-7 月份快递行业价格 竞争逐步白热化，但是监管层于 8 月开始实行"反内卷"措施，行业提价从 产粮区逐步扩散至大部分非产粮区，从而带动公司的单票快递收入 8 月和 9 月环比分别提升了 0.07 元和 0.06 元，最终使得公司单票快递收入同比降幅 从二季度的 6.3%收窄至三季度的 2.4%，三季度的单票快递收入环比提升了 0.02 元至 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhongman Petroleum (603619.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [5][15][19] Core Views - The company's revenue remained relatively stable year-on-year, but the decline in oil prices has negatively impacted net profit attributable to shareholders. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.985 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 453 million yuan, down 32.18% year-on-year [1][6] - Oil production reached a record high for a single quarter, with total production of 234,300 tons in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.07%. However, international oil prices have shown a downward trend, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreasing by 13.64% and 14.76% year-on-year, respectively [2][12] - The Iraq projects are progressing steadily and are expected to contribute to long-term growth. The company has secured development rights for the EBN and MF blocks in Iraq and is in the process of developing these projects [3][14] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.003 billion yuan, a decline of 11.44% year-on-year, and a net profit of 153 million yuan, down 36.38% year-on-year. The gross margin was 45.80%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and the net margin was 15.26%, down 5.99 percentage points [1][6] - The total expense ratio increased to 30.54%, up 2.69 percentage points from the previous year [1][6] Oil Production - The company produced 164,900 tons of oil from the Wensu project in Q3 2025, a decrease of 3.00% year-on-year, while the Gengke project produced 69,400 tons, an increase of 30.94% year-on-year. Cumulatively, the company produced 673,200 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.20% [2][8] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts downward due to the oil price decline but maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating. The expected revenues for 2025-2027 are projected to be 3.741 billion, 4.143 billion, and 4.509 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 610 million, 671 million, and 810 million yuan [3][15][17]