证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 美元债双周报（26 年第 6 周） 弱于大市 景气回升难掩财政忧虑，美债曲线陡峭化博弈加剧 美国 1 月 ISM 数据显示，制造业与服务业景气度同步回升，经济动能明显改 善。制造业 PMI 从 47.9 大幅跃升至 52.6，显著高于预期，重返扩张区 间并创近几年新高，新订单与产出强劲反弹是主要拉动因素，显示企业 补库存与需求修复加快。不过，就业指数仍低于荣枯线，制造业用工恢 复偏慢，叠加物价支付指数回升，反映成本压力再度抬头。服务业方面， PMI 维持在 53.8 的阶段性高位，扩张态势稳健，商业活动表现较好，但 新订单增速放缓，就业几乎停滞于荣枯线附近，显示需求与用工修复并 不同步。同时，价格指数走高，提示服务业通胀压力有所回升。整体而 言，美国经济开年景气度改善明确，但就业恢复偏弱、成本压力上行， 结构性特征依然突出。 市场避险情绪升温，但美债需求并不强劲。在上周市场对美联储换帅导致 的流动性冲击以及 AI 对软件的替代影响的担忧而出现抛售时，美债价 格上涨幅度却相当温和，而且收益率曲线显著趋陡，10 年-2 年期限利 差逼近多年高位。这表明尽管市场存在避险情绪 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company is a high-quality private coal enterprise transitioning from a single coal producer to a diversified coal producer, with a focus on expanding its product range and regional presence [1][15] - The main coal mine, Dafenpu, has strong profitability and is a key driver of revenue and cash flow growth [1][32] - The company is expanding its coal business into coking coal with two new mines under construction, which are expected to enhance revenue [2][46] - The company is also diversifying into non-coal mining, with a significant project in Sierra Leone expected to contribute additional revenue [3][54] - The company has a strong dividend policy, with increasing frequency and rates of dividends reflecting its solid financial performance [4][26] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a private integrated coal enterprise listed in Hong Kong since March 2012, with a high concentration of ownership [1][15] - It operates several coal mines and is expanding into international markets, particularly in South Africa [15][52] Coal Business Expansion - The company is transitioning from a focus on thermal coal to a broader range of coal products, including coking coal, with new mines expected to start production in 2026 [2][46] - The Dafenpu mine has a production capacity of 6.5 million tons per year and is recognized for its high-quality coal [1][32] Financial Performance - The company has shown resilience in its financials, with projected revenues and net profits expected to grow in the coming years despite market fluctuations [4][22] - The company’s dividend payout ratio has increased, with a forecasted dividend yield of 4.8% based on recent share prices [4][26] Non-Coal Ventures - The company is pursuing non-coal mining opportunities, including a titanium project in Sierra Leone, which is expected to generate significant additional profits [3][54] - The project is structured in phases, with the first phase expected to contribute approximately 330 million yuan in gross profit [57] Diversification into Other Businesses - The company is diversifying into agriculture, real estate, and property management, with several projects underway that are expected to enhance overall revenue [59][61] - The real estate segment includes multiple high-quality projects across various cities, contributing to the company's revenue diversification strategy [59][61]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 美元债双周报（26 年第 6 周） 弱于大市 景气回升难掩财政忧虑，美债曲线陡峭化博弈加剧 美国 1 月 ISM 数据显示，制造业与服务业景气度同步回升，经济动能明显改 善。制造业 PMI 从 47.9 大幅跃升至 52.6，显著高于预期，重返扩张区 间并创近几年新高，新订单与产出强劲反弹是主要拉动因素，显示企业 补库存与需求修复加快。不过，就业指数仍低于荣枯线，制造业用工恢 复偏慢，叠加物价支付指数回升，反映成本压力再度抬头。服务业方面， PMI 维持在 53.8 的阶段性高位，扩张态势稳健，商业活动表现较好，但 新订单增速放缓，就业几乎停滞于荣枯线附近，显示需求与用工修复并 不同步。同时，价格指数走高，提示服务业通胀压力有所回升。整体而 言，美国经济开年景气度改善明确，但就业恢复偏弱、成本压力上行， 结构性特征依然突出。 市场避险情绪升温，但美债需求并不强劲。在上周市场对美联储换帅导致 的流动性冲击以及 AI 对软件的替代影响的担忧而出现抛售时，美债价 格上涨幅度却相当温和，而且收益率曲线显著趋陡，10 年-2 年期限利 差逼近多年高位。这表明尽管市场存在避险情绪 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 小马智行（PONY.O） 2025 年公司亏损净额约 0.69～0.86 亿美元，Robotaxi 商业化运营持续推进 |  公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 汽车·汽车零部件 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 唐旭霞 | 0755-81981814 | tangxx@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980519080002 | | 证券分析师： | 杨钐 | 0755-81982771 | yangshan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523110001 | 事项： 公司公告：2026 年 2 月 4 日，小马智行发布 2025 年业绩预告。公司预计 2025 年录得(i)净利润约-0.69～ -0.86 亿美元，2024 年净利润为-2.75 亿美元，及(ii)归属普通股东净利润约-1.26～-1.43 亿美元，2024 年归属普通股东净利润为-2.74 亿美元。拆单季度看，2025Q4，公司净利润约 0.66～0.83 亿美元（2 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 中国东方教育（00667.HK） 优于大市 模式升级固本培元，职教龙头弄潮服务消费新风口 深耕职教近四十年，多品牌构筑技能培训版图。中国东方教育是国内领先的 职业技能教育集团，旗下布局新东方烹饪、新华电脑、万通汽修等知名品牌。 2019 年在港股上市。公司覆盖烹饪技术、西点西餐、信息及互联网技术、汽 车服务四大成熟专业，并积极布局美业、宠物、康养等新兴专业。 技能培训行业：职教万亿扩容，中职调整寻机。我国职业教育行业处于万亿 扩容黄金期，受政策持续加码与产业需求拉动双轮驱动，2025-2029 年预计 维持 17%复合增速，2029 年市场规模有望突破 2 万亿元。此前中职赛道经历 数年调整，2010-2024 年在高中招生占比从 51%下滑至 34%，但考虑中级技能 人才产业刚需、部分普高适配度较低学生回流，后续普高比有望寻找新平衡。 成熟专业：疫后盈利能力率先修复，收入后提速打开利润增长空间。2024 年以来公司积极调整，关停并转低效校区、推进五省职教产业园建设、升级 课程结构，带动 2025H1 公司经调净利率 19.0%/+5.0pct；预计伴随更多职教 园区 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The release of the Claude Opus 4.5 model by Anthropic marks a significant turning point for AI agents, leading to a substantial increase in CPU demand as the model transitions from a "super intern" to a "senior architect" [4][12] - The report anticipates a surge in CPU demand driven by the proliferation of AI agents, with server CPU configurations evolving from 1:32 to 1:4, and even reaching 1:2 in advanced products [4][60] - The CPU market is expected to experience a price increase due to rising demand, precious metal material costs, and limited advanced process capacity, with a 10% price increase already observed as of February 2026 [4][66][69] - The report highlights the competitive landscape of the global CPU market, projecting Intel to hold approximately 55% and AMD around 40% of the server CPU market share by 2026 [4][72] Summary by Sections 01 Phenomenon of AI Agents - The report discusses the emergence of AI agents as a transformative event in the industry, emphasizing their capabilities in autonomous task execution and workflow automation [5][12] 02 Evolution of Opus 4.5 Model - Opus 4.5 introduces significant advancements in coding capabilities, enabling end-to-end autonomous software engineering and improving the model's performance in complex tasks [27][29] - The model's pricing strategy enhances cost-performance balance, allowing for efficient resource utilization and market competitiveness [28][29] 03 Explosion of CPU Demand Under AI Agents - The report outlines how AI agents necessitate a shift in CPU roles from auxiliary units to central execution hubs, significantly increasing CPU load due to complex task execution and high concurrency requirements [60][61] - The anticipated growth in server CPU configurations reflects the evolving demands of AI agents, with projections indicating a shift towards higher core counts and improved energy efficiency [60][64] Market Dynamics - The report analyzes the competitive dynamics between x86 and ARM architectures, noting the dominance of x86 in the server market while highlighting ARM's advantages in energy efficiency and specific ecosystems [80] - Future trends suggest a gradual market shift towards ARM ecosystems, particularly with the rise of companies like Nvidia and Apple [80]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The release of the Claude Opus 4.5 model by Anthropic in November 2025 marked a significant turning point for AI agents, leading to a notable increase in CPU demand as it transitioned from a supportive unit to a central scheduling and execution hub [4][6] - The report anticipates a substantial rise in CPU demand driven by the explosion of AI agents, with server CPU configurations evolving from 1:32 to 1:4, and even reaching 1:2 in advanced products [4][60] - The CPU market is expected to experience a price increase due to rising demand, precious metal material costs, and a scarcity of advanced process capacity, with a 10% price increase already observed as of February 2026 [4][66][69] - The report highlights the competitive landscape of the global CPU market, predicting Intel's market share in server CPUs to be around 55% and AMD's to be approximately 40% by 2026, indicating a clear dominance and head effect [4][72] Summary by Sections 01 Phenomenal Events of Agents - The emergence of AI agents is transforming workflows, moving from simple question-answering to complex task execution and result delivery [4][12] 02 Evolution of Opus 4.5 Model - Opus 4.5 has achieved a qualitative leap in delivering complex tasks, acting as a highly autonomous AI engineer capable of managing extensive project files and dependencies [29][33] 03 Explosion of CPU Demand Under Agents - The demand for CPUs is expected to surge as AI agents require more processing power for task execution, orchestration, and high concurrency, with the CPU becoming a critical bottleneck in AI systems [60][61] - The report outlines the four major costs associated with agent tasks that establish the CPU's bottleneck position: tool execution, sandbox isolation, high concurrency, and KV cache [61][62] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive dynamics between x86 and ARM architectures, with x86 maintaining a stronghold in the server market due to its stability and mature software ecosystem, while ARM is gaining traction in energy efficiency and specific ecosystems [80]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown a cumulative increase of 4.48% this week, with A-shares rising by 4.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 5.77 percentage points [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with liquor outperforming food and beverages [2]. - Key investment recommendations include leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao in the liquor segment, as well as Yili in dairy and Nongfu Spring in beverages [2][3]. Summary by Sections Liquor - The report notes a gradual increase in sales leading up to the Spring Festival, with Kweichow Moutai performing particularly well. It suggests that the overall decline in sales is expected to narrow to around 10% during the festive period [10]. - Investment recommendations include Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with a focus on their growth potential and market recovery [10][11]. Beer - The beer industry is experiencing healthy inventory levels, with expectations for demand recovery. The report recommends Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer as key players to watch [11]. Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of strong alpha stocks in the snack category, particularly focusing on the growth potential of konjac snacks. Leading companies like Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi are highlighted for their innovative product offerings [12][18]. Dairy - The dairy sector is seeing orderly preparations for the Spring Festival, with a recommendation for Yili as a leading company with a favorable valuation margin. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in demand and a potential balance in supply and demand by mid-2026 [14]. Beverages - The beverage segment is primarily focused on inventory reduction during the off-season, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival. The report continues to recommend Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage for their growth strategies [15]. Supply Chain - The report discusses the public consultation on national standards for prepared dishes, which may accelerate the clearing of inefficient suppliers in the industry. Recommendations include leading companies like Yihai International and Haidilao [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][18] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by several key themes including cost benefits, efficiency improvements, innovation, and potential recovery opportunities in the liquor segment [3][10][11] - The report highlights the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with liquor outperforming food and beverages [2][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor - The report indicates that the sales of liquor, particularly high-end brands like Moutai, are showing positive trends as the Spring Festival approaches, with Moutai expected to see double-digit growth [2][10] - Investment recommendations include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with a focus on brands that are gaining market share despite overall market challenges [2][10][11] Beer - The beer industry is currently managing inventory well and is poised for recovery as demand is expected to improve [11] - Recommended companies include Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer, which are seen as strong players in the market [11] Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the snack sector, particularly those involved in konjac products, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory [12][18] - Key players in this segment include Weidong and Yanjinpuzi, which are noted for their innovative product offerings [12][18] Prepared Dishes - The report discusses the public consultation on national standards for prepared dishes, which may lead to a clearer industry structure and the elimination of less compliant players [13][14] - Recommended companies in this space include Yihai International and Haidilao, which are expected to benefit from improved compliance and operational efficiency [13][14] Dairy Products - The dairy sector is experiencing a steady recovery, with a focus on leading companies like Yili, which are expected to benefit from improved margins and reduced inventory pressures [14][15] - The report suggests that the demand for dairy products will continue to improve, particularly in the second half of 2026 [14][15] Beverages - The beverage sector is currently in a seasonal inventory reduction phase, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival [15] - Companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage are highlighted for their strong operational performance and market expansion strategies [15][16]

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic report indicates a mixed economic performance in January, with emerging industries showing strength while manufacturing PMI declined, reflecting a structural optimization trend in the economy [9][10] - February has shown signs of improvement across various economic activities, with production and consumption rebounding, supported by increased logistics and consumer traffic [10] - The real estate market is stabilizing, with new home transactions recovering from lows and a decrease in second-hand home listings indicating changing market expectations [10] Group 2: Fixed Income and REITs - The convertible bond market experienced a rapid recovery after valuation compression, with over half of the convertible bonds rising in price [12][13] - The public REITs market saw a decline of 0.9% in the index, with commercial real estate REITs continuing to expand despite overall market downturns [15][16] - The average weekly return for different types of REITs varied, with transportation and ecological REITs showing smaller declines compared to others [16] Group 3: Industry Insights - The fluorochemical industry reported significant growth in January 2026, with prices for fluorinated polymers continuing to rise [3] - The oil and gas sector saw a substantial increase in prices due to geopolitical tensions, impacting overall market dynamics [3] - The lithium battery supply chain is advancing rapidly, with companies like CATL accelerating sodium battery applications in passenger vehicles [3] Group 4: Overseas Market Analysis - The U.S. stock market experienced a pullback, particularly in the software and semiconductor sectors, with significant capital outflows [29][32] - The Hong Kong market also faced a downturn, with consumer and industrial sectors performing relatively better amidst overall market declines [29][32] - The strategy indices in the Hong Kong market are becoming essential tools for asset allocation and risk management, particularly in volatile environments [29][30]