证券研究报告 | 2025年06月28日 金融工程日报 沪指单边下行，连板率创近一个月新低 核心观点 金融工程日报 | 金融工程·数量化投资 | | --- | | 证券分析师：张欣慰 联系人：李子靖 | 市场资金流向：截至 20250626 两融余额为 18385 亿元，其中融资余额 18266 亿元，融券余额 119 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 9.6%。 折溢价：20250626 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是证券 ETF 先锋，ETF 折价较多的是 产业升级 ETF。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 12 亿元，20250626 当日大宗交易成交金额为 13 亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 5.61%，当日折价 率为 7.00%。近一年以来上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 股指期货 主力合约的年化贴水率中位数分别为 1.53%, 3.20%, 9.05%，12.09%，当日 上证 50 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 4.24%，处于近一年来 38%分位点， 当日沪深 300 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 4.80%，处于近一年来 38%分 位 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月27日 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日，上证指数、深证 成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 1.88%、9.71%、7.86%、7.38%、5.07%、1.91%、 16.70%、12.30%。中信一级行业指数中综合金融、有色金属、银行、通 信、国防军工行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，煤炭、食品饮料、房地产、 石油石化、消费者服务行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概念指数中，可 转债正股、万得全 A 等权、万得微盘股日频等权、风力发电、十大军工 集团、数字货币、黄金等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日，共 832 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 是医药、基础化工、机械行业，创新高个股数量占比最高的是银行、综合金 融、纺织服装行业。按照板块分布来看，本周制造、周期板块创新高股票数 量最多；按照指数分布来看，中证 2000、中证 1000、中 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月27日 北交所专题 优于大市 流动性显著改善，市场认可度不断提升 北证A 股上市公司业绩整体情况。2024 年，北证 A 股营业收入合计 1819.81 亿元，归母净利润合计 112.56 亿元。近三年来，北证 A 股的营收合计 水平均维持在 1800 亿元以上。2024 年，北证 A 股营业收入平均值为 6.82 亿元，归母净利润算数平均值为 0.42 亿元。近三年来，北证 A 股的营 收算术平均水平均维持在 6.80 亿元以上。2024 年至 2025 年一季度，北 证 A 股上市公司中营业收入及净利润最高的均为贝特瑞。2024 年，北证 A 股的研发费用均值为 0.3223 亿元，最高值为 7.7206 亿元（贝特瑞）。 北证 A 股与其他板块对比情况。业绩水平方面，近三年来，北交所营收算 数平均值水平稳定维持在 6.8 亿元之上，双创板块的营收算数平均值水 平保持在 20.10 亿元以上水平。近五年来，北交所净利润算数平均值保 持 0.42-0.68 亿元之间，注册制创业板该值保持在 1.02-1.61 亿元之间， 科创板净利润算数平均值波动相对较大，在 0.83-2 ...

士兰微（600460.SH） 优于大市 全球份额稳步提升，碳化硅上车加速推进 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月27日 2024 年公司功率半导体份额全球第六（占 3.3%），国内第一。公司为成熟 制程垂直一体化制造的半导体制造企业，主要业务包含分立器件、集成电路 及 LED 板块。2024 年公司产品出货量持续增加，营收 112.21 亿元 (YoY+20.14%)，扣非归母净利润 2.52 亿元(YoY+327.34%)。进入 1Q25 公司 保持稳健增长，实现营收 30 亿元(YoY+21.7%，QoQ-1.89%)，随着产品结构 优化与规模效应显现，1Q25 毛利率环比回升至 21.31%(YoY-0.79ct，QoQ +2.72pct)，扣非归母净利润 1.45 亿元(YoY+8.96%，QoQ+29.99%)。 集成电路板块 24 年同比增长 29%，优势产品 IPM 模块加速渗透。集成电路 板块 24 年营收 41.05 亿元（YoY+31.21%），毛利率 30.70%（YoY+1.23pct）。 其中，优势产品 IPM 模块营收达 29.11 亿元（YoY+47%），在白电领域出货 量超 1 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月27日 宏观经济专题研究 "投资驱动型增长"正在走向效率悬崖 增长引擎的动态平衡原理。经济增长的根本动力源于投资与消费的动态平 衡。投资直接创造新供给，拉动增长；消费则代表需求，是企业利润的源泉， 并通过支撑利润间接拉动投资和增长。从分配角度看，GDP 分为资本收入和 非资本收入（劳动报酬+税收）。资本收入集中在少数人手中，人均占有量 大但边际消费倾向低，是投资/供给的主要来源；非资本收入人群人均占有 量小但边际消费倾向高，构成消费/需求的主力。这导致投资与消费天然存 在此消彼长的张力，其背后是资本与非资本收入分配的博弈。若分配过度向 资本倾斜，短期内虽刺激投资，但会压制消费需求，消费疲软进而侵蚀企业 利润，最终反噬投资本身。因此，可持续增长依赖于投资与消费比例的协调 平衡，而非一味扩大投资。 中国投资效率衰减的实证链条。关键的会计恒等式（资本收入占比 = 资本 回报率 r * (资本存量 K / GDP)）揭示了核心关系：在资本收入占比稳定 的平衡状态下，资本回报率（r）与资本产出比（K/GDP）呈反比。其中，K/GDP 是衡量投资效率的关键指标：其上升意味着资本存量增速快 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月27日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-06-26 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3448.45 | 10343.47 | 3946.01 | 11721.66 | 2971.78 | 989.97 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.21 | -0.48 | -0.35 | -0.37 | -0.37 | -0.56 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 6030.95 | 9800.56 | 3281.02 | 3370.38 | 5101.82 | 307.35 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{E}}}}\triangleq\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{E}_{\mathrm{E}}^{\mathrm{E}}}}}$$ 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 固定收益专题研究:2025 年上半年债券行情回顾-债市先抑后扬，信用利 差收窄 固定收益周报:政府 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月26日 金融工程日报 A 股震荡走低，军工、稳定币题材逆势走强 市场表现：今日(20250626) 市场全线下跌，规模指数中中证 2000 指数表现 较好，板块指数中上证综指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较 好。综合金融、银行、通信、国防军工、消费者服务行业表现较好，汽车、 非银、医药、电新、电子行业表现较差。锂电隔膜、密码学、稳定币、数字 货币、网络安全等概念表现较好，近端次新股、自行车、共享汽车、CRO、 单克隆抗体等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 72 只股票涨停，有 7 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日收盘收益为 2.85%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为 0.22%。今日封板率 69%，较前日下降 4%，连板率 30%，较前日下降 3%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250625 两融余额为 18292 亿元，其中融资余额 18172 亿元，融券余额 120 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.2%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 9.8%。 折溢价：20250625 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是中证 800ETF，ETF 折价较多的是中 证 A50ETF ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the trend towards steer-by-wire (SBW) systems and the increasing adoption of electronic control in automotive chassis, indicating a significant shift from traditional mechanical systems to more advanced electronic solutions [1][4][25]. - The penetration rate of steer-by-wire systems is currently below 1%, but it is projected to exceed 30% by 2030 in China, with a market size exceeding 35 billion yuan [3][4][31]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of the electric power steering (EPS) market, which is expected to reach 48 billion yuan by 2028, driven by the transition from C-EPS to R-EPS and DP-EPS systems [2][56]. Summary by Sections Steer-by-Wire Systems - The steer-by-wire technology is seen as a key enabler for higher levels of autonomous driving, with the first mass-produced models expected to hit the market soon [3][31]. - Current market leaders in steer-by-wire include companies like NIO and ZF, with significant projects underway [3][36]. Electric Power Steering (EPS) - The EPS market in China is currently valued at approximately 38 billion yuan, with a projected growth to 48 billion yuan by 2028 [2][56]. - EPS systems are becoming the mainstream solution, with a penetration rate expected to reach over 99% by 2024 [2][50]. Key Companies and Forecasts - The report identifies key players such as Naisite, Zhejiang Seabow, Berteli, and Asia-Pacific Shares, all rated as "Outperform" [5][4]. - Naisite is noted for its strong position in the steer-by-wire market, while Zhejiang Seabow is expected to achieve mass production of steer-by-wire systems by 2026 [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape, highlighting that foreign joint ventures currently dominate the EPS market, but domestic players are rapidly increasing their market share [2][56]. - The transition to electronic steering systems is driven by the need for improved efficiency, safety, and the ability to support advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [1][25].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) technology presents significant market opportunities for domestic equipment manufacturers [1] - The global AI data center market is expected to see substantial growth, with a projected annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 28% for AI computing power load from 2024 to 2030 [4] - The demand for power equipment in data centers is anticipated to reach a market size of 108.7 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the increasing requirements for reliability and efficiency [5] Summary by Sections AI Data Center Growth - The global computing power scale is projected to exceed 16 ZFlops by 2030, with AI computing power accounting for over 90% [4] - The expected annual growth in AI computing power load from 2025 to 2030 is 9.7 GW, 15.9 GW, 20.2 GW, 22.3 GW, 23.4 GW, and 24.6 GW respectively [10][11] Power Equipment Demand - The demand for power equipment in data centers is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 29 GW, 48 GW, 60 GW, 67 GW, 70 GW, and 74 GW from 2025 to 2030 [30] - The market for transformers, switchgear, UPS, and HVDC is projected to reach 85 billion yuan, 341 billion yuan, 41 billion yuan, and 380 billion yuan respectively by 2030 [5] Technology Trends - The integration and modularization of power distribution equipment are increasingly required, with HVDC technology expected to see a steady rise in penetration from the current 15%-20% [6] - The transition to 800V HVDC systems is being accelerated by major companies like NVIDIA, which aims to support ultra-high power density IT racks [6][49] Company Analysis - Key players in the data center power equipment sector include Delta, Vertiv, Schneider Electric, and domestic firms like Hezhong Electric and Mingyang Electric [7] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies such as Hezhong Electric, Shenghong Co., Magmi Tech, Mingyang Electric, and Jinpan Technology [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the solid-state battery industry [1] Core Insights - Solid-state batteries exhibit high energy density and safety, making them a competitive factor for automotive companies aiming to enhance battery safety and range. Major automakers plan to begin large-scale testing by 2027 and aim for mass production around 2030 [2][19] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated the establishment of a standard system for solid-state batteries, which is expected to enhance technological efficiency and accelerate industrialization [2][26] - The demand for solid-state batteries is rapidly increasing, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, with projections indicating a penetration rate of 3% by 2027 and 8% by 2030, corresponding to capacity scales of 76 GWh and 271 GWh respectively [2][27] Summary by Sections 1. Solid-State Battery: Innovative Scenarios Coupled with Performance Advantages - Solid-state batteries are characterized by high energy density and safety, but face challenges such as high manufacturing costs and limited lifespan [2][11] - The automotive industry is actively pursuing solid-state battery technology to improve vehicle performance and safety [2][20] 2. Outlook for Solid-State Battery Applications - The electric vehicle market is leading the short-term production process, with major global automakers rapidly adopting solid-state battery technology [2][20] - Solid-state batteries are also being explored in consumer electronics and emerging fields such as humanoid robots and eVTOLs [2][20] 3. Solid-State Battery Industry Chain Analysis - The industry chain includes key components such as solid-state electrolytes, which are expected to see significant advancements and cost reductions by 2025 [2][46] - Major battery manufacturers are making strides in both semi-solid and solid-state battery technologies, with several companies already achieving product mass production [2][49]