证券研究报告 | 2025年12月08日 ETF 周报 上周股票型 ETF 涨幅中位数为 1.08%，军工 ETF 领涨 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 12 月 01 日至 2025 年 12 月 05 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度 收益率中位数为1.08%。宽基ETF中，创业板类ETF涨跌幅中位数为1.86%， 收益最高。按板块划分，周期 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 1.32%，收益最高。按 主题进行分类，军工 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 2.72%，收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净申购 41.79 亿元，总体规模增加 398.29 亿元。在宽基 ETF 中，上周 A500ETF 净申购最多，为 44.12 亿元；按板块来看，科技 ETF 净申购最多，为 33.06 亿元；按热点主题来看，AIETF 净申购最多，为 8.99 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看，消费、 大金融 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒 ETF 的估值分 位数相对较低。 ETF 融资融券情况 上周一至周四股票型 ETF ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [6][46]. Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing significant growth driven by advancements in AI infrastructure and cloud computing technologies, particularly with the introduction of new AI chips and optical interconnect technologies [5][11][18]. - Companies like Marvell and Credo are leading the charge with substantial revenue growth and strategic acquisitions aimed at enhancing their capabilities in AI and data center technologies [2][3][21]. - The successful launch of the "Zhuque-3" rocket marks a pivotal moment in China's commercial space endeavors, further stimulating interest and investment in the aerospace sector [4][31]. Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - AWS successfully hosted its annual re:Invent cloud computing conference, unveiling the next-generation AI chip Trainium 4, which supports NVLink Fusion technology for high-speed chip interconnects [11][12]. - Marvell reported a 37% year-over-year revenue increase for FY2026 Q3, driven by data center demand and operational efficiency, and announced a $3.25 billion acquisition of Celestial AI to enhance its optical interconnect technology [2][18]. - Credo's FY2026 Q2 revenue reached $268 million, reflecting a 20.2% quarter-over-quarter growth, with expectations for continued growth driven by AI training and inference infrastructure [3][21]. Market Performance Review - The communication sector index increased by 3.69% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.41%, ranking second among primary industries [4][36]. - Notable performers in the sector included satellite internet, optical devices/chips, and IoT controllers, with respective increases of 9.85%, 5.93%, and 4.35% [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of AI computing infrastructure development, recommending investments in optical devices, communication equipment, and liquid cooling technologies [5][43]. - It suggests long-term investment in the three major telecom operators due to their stable operations and increasing dividend payouts, highlighting companies such as China Mobile and ZTE [5][43].

Group 1: Macro and Strategy Insights - The report highlights three key drivers for unlocking service sector growth in China: overseas "input demand," domestic "time-scarce" potential demand, and "innovation demand" arising from industrial upgrades [8][9] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a classic cycle dilemma in the service sector, where boosting service demand is seen as dependent on increasing resident income, creating a paradox [8][9] - The report discusses the evolution of anti-involution policies, emphasizing the need for industry self-discipline and administrative guidance to address overcapacity issues in various sectors [9] Group 2: Banking Industry Outlook - The banking industry is projected to experience a decline in net interest margins, with the bottom line estimated at around 1.2% to 1.3% [22][23] - A potential decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points could lead to a year-on-year decline in net interest margins by approximately 5 to 8 basis points [23][24] - The report suggests that 2026 will likely mark the end of the current cycle of declining net interest margins, with a focus on quality stocks that are expected to see margin improvements [25] Group 3: Wealth Management and Asset Allocation - The report indicates that the scale of bank wealth management products reached a historical high of nearly 34 trillion yuan in November, with expectations to stabilize around 33 trillion yuan by year-end [26][27] - A shift towards multi-asset strategies is seen as essential for wealth management firms to adapt to declining returns from traditional fixed-income products [27][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of matching the risk-return profile of wealth management funds with investor preferences to successfully implement multi-asset strategies [28][30] Group 4: REITs Market Insights - The report notes a decline in the REITs index by 1.0% for the week ending December 5, 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 1.5% [12][13] - The first city renewal REIT was successfully issued in Beijing, signaling new opportunities in the REITs market [14] - The report highlights the need for regulatory support to enhance the potential for REITs to attract more investment [14][30] Group 5: Overseas Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is showing a concentration in technology, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing slight increases [34] - The report indicates a mixed performance across sectors, with notable gains in automotive and semiconductor industries, while utilities and consumer staples faced declines [34][35] - The earnings expectations for the S&P 500 components have been slightly revised upward, reflecting a stable outlook for most industries [35]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors related to quantitative investment strategies[4][6][10] - The content primarily focuses on fund performance, issuance, and market dynamics without delving into quantitative model construction or factor analysis[4][10][40] - No detailed quantitative model formulas, factor construction processes, or backtesting results are provided in the report[4][10][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [6][46]. Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing significant growth driven by advancements in AI infrastructure and cloud computing technologies, with companies like AWS and Marvell leading the charge [5][11][18]. - Credo's revenue growth is attributed to the expansion of AI training and inference infrastructure, with a notable increase in demand for AEC and ALC products [3][21]. - Marvell's acquisition of Celestial AI is a strategic move to enhance its capabilities in data center optical interconnect technology, positioning the company for future growth in AI and cloud data centers [2][18]. Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - AWS successfully hosted its annual re:Invent cloud computing conference, unveiling the next-generation AI training chip Trainium 4, which supports NVLink Fusion technology [11][12]. - Marvell reported a 37% year-over-year revenue increase for FY2026Q3, driven by data center demand and operational efficiency, and announced a $3.25 billion acquisition of Celestial AI to enhance optical interconnect technology [2][13][18]. - Credo's FY2026Q2 revenue reached $268 million, reflecting a 20.2% quarter-over-quarter increase, with ALC expected to drive future growth [3][21]. Market Performance Review - The communication sector index rose by 3.69% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.28% [4][36]. - Key sectors such as satellite internet, optical devices/chips, and IoT controllers showed strong performance, with respective increases of 9.85%, 5.93%, and 4.35% [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued focus on AI computing infrastructure development, recommending investments in optical devices, communication equipment, and liquid cooling technologies [5][43]. - The three major telecom operators are highlighted as important assets for dividend allocation, with stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [5][43].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 小马智行（PONY.O/2026.HK） 优于大市 单三季度收入同比增长 72%，Robotaxi 商业化运营持续推进 2025Q3 公司实现营收 2544 万美元，同比增长 72%。2025Q3，公司实现 收入为 2544 万美元，同比增长 72.0%，环比增长 18.6%，净利润为-6132 万美元（2024Q3 为-4189 万美元，2025Q2 为-5310 万美元），调整后净 利润（即加回股权激励费用后的净利润）为-5472 万美元（2024Q3 为-4121 万美元，2025Q2 为-4589 万美元）。分业务来看，1）2025Q3，公司 Robotaxi 服务收入为 670 万美元，同比增长 89.5%，其中乘客车费收入同比增长 超 200%。2）2025Q3，公司 Robotruck 服务收入为 1020 万美元，同比增 长 8.7%，随着公司第四代 Robotruck 的推出，其自动驾驶套件 BOM 成本 相比上一代降低了 70%。3）2025Q3，公司授权和应用收入为 860 万美元， 同比大幅增长 354.6%，这一增长 主要得益于 自动驾驶域控 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 2025Q3，公司毛利率同比提升，费用率环比下降。2025Q3，公司的毛利 率/净利率分别 18.4%/-242.0%，分别同比+9.1/+42.8pct，分别环比 +2.2/+6.3pct，公司费用率为 292.2%，同比+7.7pct，环比-9.5pct。 小马智行是自动驾驶出行大规模商业化领域的全球领先企业。1） Robotaxi 规模化运营持续推进，公司拥有 961 辆 Robotaxi 运营车辆， 其中包括 667 辆第七代 Robotaxi 车型，公司有望在年底前实现 Robotaxi 超过 1000 辆的目标， 并朝着 2026 年底 Robotaxi 超过 3000 辆的目标 迈进；2）第七代 Robotaxi 已实现以城市为单位的单车盈利转正。2） 自动驾驶"朋友圈"扩容，继 6 月与西湖集团合作之后，11 月 24 日， 小马智行与阳光出行达成战略合作，双方将围绕自动驾驶出行开展全方 位深度合作，共同打造规模化自动驾驶车队。3）公司通过战略合作伙 伴全球范围内将 Robotaxi 业务拓展至八个国家，与卡塔尔最大的交通 服务提供商 Mowasala ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 估值周观察(12月第1期) 韩国股市领涨，A股结构分化 策略研究 · 专题报告 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 近一周（2025.12.1-2025.12.5）海外市场涨多跌少，估值随股价小幅变动。韩国显著领跑；美小幅走高；欧元区分化；香港涨幅居中。 估值随股价小幅变动。韩国综合指数PE扩张3.5x，日经225的PE扩张1.59x，其余主要指数PE变动均低于0.5x。从估值分位数看，标普 500和法国CAC40位于历史较高水平，印度SENSEX30和道琼斯工业指数处于较低区间。 • 近一周(2025.12.1-2025.12.5)，A股核心宽基温和上涨，估值微幅扩张。具体来看，规模上，仅中证100（+1.61%）和上证50 （+1.09%）涨幅超过 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for EHang Intelligent (EH.O) [5][55] Core Insights - EHang has launched the VT35, a long-range unmanned aerial vehicle, expanding its product range to include intercity air travel [2][26] - The company has received operational licenses and is prepared to commence commercial operations, having completed over 1,700 flights since obtaining the license [2][37] - EHang's global footprint has expanded to 21 countries, with plans for large-scale commercial operations in Thailand by 2026 [2][40][43] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, EHang reported revenues of 92 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 27.8% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 37.2% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was -82.16 million RMB, compared to -48.06 million RMB in the same period last year [1][8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 60.8%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.4 percentage points [1][17] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for EHang from 2025 to 2027 are 500 million RMB, 750 million RMB, and 1.36 billion RMB, respectively [3][55] - Expected net profits for the same period are -300 million RMB, -200 million RMB, and a slight profit of 1 million RMB in 2027 [3][55] Product Development and Partnerships - The VT35 model, designed for a range of 200 kilometers, is set to enhance EHang's offerings in urban and intercity air transport [2][26] - Strategic partnerships have been established with Minth Group for high-safety aircraft systems and with Guoxuan High-Tech for battery solutions [47][48] - EHang has also formed a joint research institute with Tsinghua University to advance low-altitude aviation technology [51] Operational Readiness - EHang's subsidiaries have completed over 80,000 safe flights, indicating readiness for commercial operations [37][40] - The company is developing a ticketing system for future public use and has initiated training programs for ground operation personnel [38][37] Market Expansion - EHang's eVTOL aircraft have successfully conducted test flights in various countries, including Thailand, Qatar, and Japan, showcasing its international operational capabilities [43][44][45]

资产比价方面，本周金银比数值为 73.03，较上周下降 4.72；铜油比数 值为 193.83，较上周上升 5.89；铜螺比数值为 29.47，较上周上升 1.35； 金铜比数值为 0.37，较上周下降 0.02；股债性价比数值为 4.1，较上周 下降 0.1；AH 股溢价数值为 119.79，较上周下降 1.11。 库存方面，最新一周原油库存为 44355 万吨，较上周上升 278 万吨；螺 纹钢库存为 467 万吨，较上周上升 4 万吨；阴极铜库存为 109690 吨， 较上周上升 14656 吨；电解铝库存为 62 万吨，较上周上升 2 万吨。 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 多资产周报 反内卷政策演进与实践 反内卷政策演进与实践。（1）反内卷政策已完成多轮迭代。2023 年底中 央经济工作会议首次明确"部分行业产能过剩"，将该问题上升至国家 政策层面。2024 年作为行业自律关键期，核心通过协会牵头、企业承诺 平衡供需，但多数行业以失败告终。2025 年 7 月后，治理方式转向"行 政指导+法律划线+行业自律"三维协同，政策进入新阶段。（2）当前 反内卷仍以去产能为核心，价格管控为辅助手段。 ...