1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the released February inflation data (CPI同比 1.3%, PPI同比 -0.9%) slightly exceeded market expectations. The February import - export growth rate was remarkable, and the US stated that the Iran conflict would end soon, making the Middle - East situation uncertain. The bond market declined again, and ultra - long bonds tumbled. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, with the term spread widening and the variety spread narrowing [1][4][10]. - For the 30 - year Treasury bond, as of March 13, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 47BP, at a historically low level. Considering domestic economic data, the economic downward pressure in December eased, with the estimated December GDP year - on - year growth rate at about 4.5%, a 0.4% increase from November. The manufacturing PMI in January and February dropped to 49.3 and 49 respectively, indicating a weak start to the year. The deflation risk continued to ease. The report believes that the bond market is more likely to correct in the near future due to factors such as rising domestic inflation risk and reduced central bank bond - buying scale. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of March 13, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year Treasury bond was 13BP, at a historically low position. Similar to the 30 - year Treasury bond situation, the bond market is more likely to correct in the near future. However, considering the bond market is still in a large oscillation range, the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [3][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The February inflation data (CPI同比 1.3%, PPI同比 -0.9%) slightly exceeded market expectations. The February import - export growth rate was very good, and the US's statement on the Iran conflict made the Middle - East situation uncertain. The bond market declined, and ultra - long bonds tumbled. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, with the term spread widening and the variety spread narrowing [1][4][10]. 3.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of March 13, the 30 - 10 spread was 47BP, at a historically low level. December economic downward pressure eased, with GDP growth rate estimated at 4.5% year - on - year, a 0.4% increase from November. January and February manufacturing PMI dropped, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is more likely to correct due to rising inflation risk and reduced central bank bond - buying. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of March 13, the 20 - year CDB - Treasury spread was 13BP, at a historically low position. Similar economic situation as the 30 - year Treasury bond. The bond market is more likely to correct, but the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [3][12]. 3.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 25.3 trillion. As of February 28, ultra - long bonds with a remaining term over 14 years totaled 1,655,081 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.3% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main sub - varieties. By variety, Treasury bonds accounted for 27.5%, local government bonds 67.3%, etc. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [13]. 3.4 Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (2026.3.9 - 2026.3.15), the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds decreased, totaling 474 billion yuan. Compared with the week before last, the total issuance volume dropped significantly. By variety, Treasury bonds issued 320 billion, local government bonds 154 billion, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds issued 30 billion, 20 - year 16 billion, 30 - year 107 billion, and 50 - year 320 billion [18]. - **This Week's Scheduled Issuance**: The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 1,442 billion. Ultra - long local government bonds account for 1,436 billion, and ultra - long medium - term notes 6 billion [24]. 3.5 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a trading volume of 11,303 billion, accounting for 11.7% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, ultra - long Treasury bonds accounted for 38.9% of the total Treasury bond trading volume, ultra - long local bonds 45.0% of the total local bond trading volume, etc. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume of ultra - long bonds increased by 532 billion, and the proportion increased by 1.3% [27]. - **Yield**: Due to factors such as inflation data and international situation, the bond market declined, and ultra - long bonds tumbled. For Treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 5BP, 6BP, 9BP, and 9BP respectively to 2.16%, 2.31%, 2.37%, and 2.55%. Similar changes occurred in CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds [39]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark Treasury bonds remained at 47BP, a 2BP change from the week before last, at the 44% quantile since 2010 [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, with an absolute low level. The spreads of 20 - year CDB bonds and railway bonds against Treasury bonds were 13BP and 15BP respectively, a - 1BP change from the week before last, at the 11% and 10% quantiles since 2010 [47]. 3.6 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2606 closed at 111.06 yuan, with an increase of - 1.53%. The total trading volume was 47.12 million lots (114,506 lots), and the open interest was 13.07 million lots (- 2,023 lots). The trading volume increased significantly compared with the week before last, and the open interest decreased slightly [54].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the white liquor sector is entering a demand off-season, suggesting a focus on undervalued stocks with strong alpha potential [1] - It highlights the gradual recovery of domestic demand, with expectations for a mild rebound in sales due to supportive government policies [2] - The report recommends monitoring the price trends of Feitian Moutai as a key indicator of industry health, with expectations for price declines to stabilize [3] Industry Overview - Post-Spring Festival, consumer demand for white liquor has decreased, leading to performance pressure in Q1, with anticipated year-on-year declines in earnings [2] - The report notes that major liquor companies are focusing on maintaining market order during the off-season, with some firms adjusting their delivery schedules to manage inventory and pricing health [2] - The government has reiterated the importance of expanding domestic demand, which is expected to support the sector's recovery [2] Company-Specific Insights Guizhou Moutai - Guizhou Moutai's reform efforts are showing positive results, with sales performance exceeding market expectations, particularly among younger consumers [2] - The company is expected to maintain stable performance in Q1 2026, with a focus on cultivating independent consumption scenarios through non-standard product sales [2] - The report projects Moutai's revenue for 2026 to be approximately 1758.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of around 870.9 billion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [19] Wuliangye - Wuliangye is expected to see a decline in revenue and net profit in 2026, with projections of 758.2 billion yuan in revenue and 256.6 billion yuan in net profit, reflecting a decrease of 15% and 19.4% respectively [20] - The company has improved its channel management during the Spring Festival, which has helped restore distributor confidence [20] - The report indicates that Wuliangye's price remains stable at around 810 yuan, with actual trading prices between 780-790 yuan [20] Luzhou Laojiao - Luzhou Laojiao's 38-degree Guojiao is performing steadily, with expectations for revenue and net profit to remain flat in 2026 at approximately 272.2 billion yuan and 113.4 billion yuan respectively [22] - The company plans to enhance its digital tools for management, aiming to maximize efficiency in its operations [22] - The report notes that the performance of lower-end products is improving, particularly in key consumption areas [22] Shanxi Fenjiu - Shanxi Fenjiu is projected to achieve revenue growth in the single digits for 2025 and 2026, with a focus on maintaining market order and enhancing channel profitability [24] - The company is expected to increase its operational pace post-Spring Festival, with a strategy to boost sales without overstocking [24] - The report highlights that Fenjiu's pricing for its Qinghua 20 product is expected to stabilize around 360-370 yuan [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of 0.6% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 2.589 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 24.6% to 405 million yuan, primarily driven by increased gains from the disposal of non-current assets [1][4]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 showed a significant revenue increase of 8.1% year-on-year, reaching 703 million yuan, with a net profit increase of 56.0% to 96 million yuan, benefiting from a low base from the previous year [2][3]. - The seamless apparel segment is showing a recovery in profitability, with the Vietnam facility turning profitable, contributing over 16 million yuan to profits [3][4]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company plans to distribute dividends of 0.35 yuan per share, alongside a mid-term dividend of 0.25 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 65.5% [1]. - The company has completed the first phase of its share repurchase program and is set to initiate a second phase with a budget of 150 to 300 million yuan, with a repurchase price not exceeding 14.69 yuan per share [1][4]. - The company’s gross margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 29.7% in 2025, while the operating cash flow reached 606 million yuan, with free cash flow at 305 million yuan [1][4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2026-2028 has been slightly adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 370 million yuan, 400 million yuan, and 430 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.6%, 6.3%, and 9.2% [4][36]. - The target price has been revised to 13.1-14.2 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12-13x for 2026 [4][36]. Business Segments - The cotton socks business saw a revenue increase of 2.3% to 1.885 billion yuan, driven by both volume and price increases, with a stable net profit contribution of 342 million yuan [3][4]. - The seamless apparel segment experienced a revenue decline of 3.3% to 639 million yuan, but profitability is improving, particularly in seamless sportswear, which saw a rapid increase in gross margin [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a revenue increase of 0.6% year-on-year to 2.589 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit growth of 24.6% to 405 million yuan, primarily due to increased gains from the disposal of non-current assets [1][4]. - The gross margin is projected to improve by 1.3 percentage points to 29.7% in 2025, with operational efficiency enhancements contributing to this growth [1]. - The company plans to distribute dividends of 0.35 yuan per share at the end of 2025, alongside a mid-term dividend of 0.25 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 65.5% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 8.1% year-on-year to 703 million yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 3.0 percentage points to 31.9% [2]. - The net profit for Q4 2025 rose by 56.0% year-on-year to 96 million yuan, benefiting from a low base in the previous year [2]. Business Segments - Cotton Socks: Revenue increased by 2.3% year-on-year to 1.885 billion yuan, driven by both volume and price growth, with a stable net profit contribution of 342 million yuan [3]. - Seamless Apparel: Revenue decreased by 3.3% year-on-year to 639 million yuan, but profitability is recovering, with the Vietnam base turning profitable, contributing over 16 million yuan [3]. Future Projections - The company has slightly raised its profit forecasts for 2026-2027, expecting net profits of 370 million yuan and 400 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.6% and 6.3% [4][36]. - The target price has been adjusted to 13.1-14.2 yuan, corresponding to a 12-13x PE for 2026 [4]. Key Financial Metrics - The projected net profit for 2025 is 405 million yuan, with an expected EPS of 1.18 yuan [5]. - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) of 17.3% for 2025, with a PE ratio of 11.0 [5][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "weaker than the market" rating for the U.S. stock market [4] Core Insights - The overall market has seen a decline, with energy and semiconductor sectors showing positive performance [1] - Funds are flowing out of the market overall, but there is a significant inflow into semiconductor and hardware sectors [2] - Earnings forecasts have been steadily revised upwards, particularly in the energy sector [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index decreased by 1.6% this week, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.3% [1] - Among sectors, energy (+2.2%) and semiconductor products and equipment (+1.6%) were the top performers, while commercial and professional services (-5.8%) and durable goods and apparel (-4.6%) faced the largest declines [1] 2. Fund Flows - The estimated fund flow for S&P 500 constituents was -$27.1 billion this week, a slight improvement from -$99.4 billion the previous week [2] - Key sectors with inflows included semiconductor products and equipment (+$30.8 million) and technology hardware and equipment (+$29.7 million) [2] 3. Earnings Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) expectations for S&P 500 constituents increased by 0.6% this week, with 22 sectors seeing upward revisions [3] - The energy sector had the most significant upward revision at +4.3%, followed by materials and semiconductor products and equipment at +1.2% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][4]. Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to see a reversal in the meat and dairy cycle within the year, supporting long-term pig prices due to internal adjustments [1]. - The pig market is anticipated to stabilize as capacity control measures improve cash flow for leading companies, enhancing their competitive edge [3]. - The beef and raw milk sectors are projected to experience a cyclical upturn, benefiting from both domestic and international market conditions [3]. - Poultry supply is expected to remain stable, with leading companies likely to achieve higher cash flow returns as demand recovers [3]. - The feed industry is set to deepen industrialization, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to widen their competitive gap [3]. - The pet industry is identified as a growing sector, benefiting from demographic trends [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - Weekly pig price as of March 13 is 10.03 CNY/kg, down 2.53% week-on-week and down 31.16% year-on-year [13]. - Weekly chicken price remains stable at 7.00 CNY/kg, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.86% [14]. - Beef price for fattened bulls is 25.30 CNY/kg, up 0.4% week-on-week and up 6% year-on-year [2][15]. - Raw milk price is stable at 3.03 CNY/kg, down 2% year-on-year [2]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The industry is undergoing orderly internal adjustments, which are expected to support profitability for low-cost pig enterprises [13]. 2.2 Poultry - Supply is slightly increasing, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [14]. 2.3 Beef - A new round of beef price increases is beginning, with a positive outlook for the beef cycle [2]. 2.4 Raw Milk - The reduction in dairy cow numbers is expected to continue, potentially leading to a price turning point for raw milk [2]. 2.5 Soybean Meal - Valuations are at historical lows, with attention on oil prices and trade catalysts [2]. 2.6 Corn - Strong bottom support is noted, with a tightening supply-demand balance expected [2]. 3. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Recommended companies include: - For livestock: YouRan MuYe (优然牧业), Modern Farming (现代牧业) [4]. - For pigs: HuaTong Co. (华统股份), DeKang Agriculture (德康农牧), MuYuan (牧原股份) [4]. - For poultry: LiHua Co. (立华股份), YiSheng Co. (益生股份) [4]. - For feed: HaiDa Group (海大集团) [4]. - For pets: GuaiBao Pets (乖宝宠物) [4].

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月15日 港股市场速览 优于大市 整体业绩下修反转，能源板块上涨强势 股价表现：整体回撤放缓，能源板块强势 本周，恒生指数-1.1%（上周-3.3%），恒生综指-1.0%（上周-3.8%）。风格 方面，小盘（恒生小型股+1.5%）＞大盘（恒生大型股-1.0%）＞中盘（恒生 中型股-2.2%）。 主要概念指数多数下跌。上涨幅度较大的主要有恒生科技（+0.6%）；下跌 幅度较大的主要有恒生生物科技（-4.0%）。 国信海外选股策略组合多数下跌。上涨的主要有自由现金流 30（+1.6%）； 下跌的主要有 ROE 策略进攻型（-4.9%）。 11 个行业上涨，19 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：煤炭（+11.5%）、石油石 化（+8.5%）、电力设备及新能源（+7.0%）、传媒（+3.8%）、汽车（+2.4%）； 下跌的主要有：国防军工（-8.2%）、纺织服装（-4.8%）、机械（-4.0%）、 房地产（-3.9%）、银行（-3.6%）。 估值水平：整体略有回落，行业分化显著 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）-0.2%至 11.2x； 恒生综指估值-0.6%至 1 ...

Trade Performance - In January-February 2026, exports increased by 21.8% and imports by 19.8%, both achieving rare high growth around 20%[1] - Compared to the 2025 annual performance of 5.5% export growth and zero import growth, the current demand is significantly stronger[1] Credit Market Insights - New RMB loans in January-February totaled approximately 5.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 530 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating overall weak performance[2] - Corporate loans accounted for about 5.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 120 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting strong corporate financing demand[2] Household Credit Concerns - Household loans in January-February showed a negative growth of approximately -194.2 billion yuan, marking the first negative figure for this period in history, down by 2.49 trillion yuan year-on-year[2] - The weak household financing indicates a fragile foundation for domestic demand, posing challenges if external demand declines[2] Government Policy Recommendations - To address weak domestic demand, increasing government transfer payments to residents is crucial, shifting focus from "investment in goods" to "investment in people"[2] - The urbanization rate for registered population is below 50%, highlighting a gap of about 200-300 million migrant workers lacking full urban public service access[2] Economic Risks - There are significant uncertainties regarding external markets, particularly due to geopolitical tensions affecting trade dynamics[3]

Group 1: Economic Context - The current energy shock is unlikely to replicate the "M-top" inflation pattern of the 1970s due to significant changes in the U.S. energy dependency and inflation formation mechanisms[1] - The U.S. has transitioned from being an "importer" to an "exporter" of oil, with shale oil production surpassing conventional oil production around 2016, enhancing short-term supply adjustment capabilities[1] - The weight of energy in the U.S. inflation basket has significantly decreased, with energy's share dropping to approximately 6.4% in January 2026, down about 5 percentage points from the 1980s[2] Group 2: Nature of Current Energy Shock - The current energy shock is characterized more by "transportation risks" rather than "supply shocks," as major oil-producing countries do not show a clear intention to cut production[2] - The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be temporary, with Gulf countries actively seeking alternative transport routes to mitigate risks[2] - The scale of supply shocks, dependency on related energy, and the weight of energy prices in inflation transmission are all lower compared to the 1970s[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The duration and intensity of geopolitical conflicts will be key variables affecting inflation paths, with the Federal Reserve likely to delay but not forgo interest rate cuts, expecting one 25 basis point cut in both Q3 and Q4[3] - Risks include overseas market volatility and uncertainties in domestic policy execution[3]

Core Conclusions - The recent surge in strategic resource products is driven by concerns over AI substitution and escalating geopolitical conflicts, with frequent industry rotations observed this week, particularly in petrochemicals and non-ferrous metals [1] - The market for strategic resource products is supported not only by short-term shocks but also by long-term supply-demand changes that elevate price levels, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend in the medium term [1][2] - Despite short-term market fluctuations, the overall bullish market trend for the year remains intact, with a focus on strategic resources under safety considerations and domestic demand-related assets, while AI technology remains a key theme for the medium term [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market for strategic resource products is influenced by supply constraints and rigid demand, which are driving price levels higher in the medium to long term [2][14] - Long-term capital expenditure is insufficient, resource nationalism is rising, and operational risks are increasing, all of which constrain the supply of strategic resource products [16] - The demand for strategic resources is being shaped by industrial trends and macro geopolitical changes, with AI and new energy sectors accelerating demand growth [17] Geopolitical Influences - The worsening geopolitical situation in the Middle East has catalyzed a rapid increase in oil prices, further stimulating the market for strategic resource products [13][14] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to suppress market risk appetite until the situation clarifies, although the underlying logic driving the stock market is anticipated to prevail in the medium term [25][26] Investment Focus - There is a strong emphasis on strategic resource products and a focus on domestic demand-related assets, with AI technology remaining a central theme for medium-term investments [3][27] - The report highlights the importance of safety considerations in the current complex external environment, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand likely to benefit undervalued assets in real estate and consumer sectors [27] - The report suggests that the AI technology sector will continue to evolve, with a focus on applications and upstream energy and power sectors, as global energy supply tightens [27]