- The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" is constructed based on analyst recommendation events, including upward earnings revisions, initial coverage, and unexpected research report titles. Stocks are selected from the recommendation pool using fundamental and technical criteria to identify those with both fundamental support and technical resonance. The backtesting period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index[14][15][19] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening Method" identifies stocks that have reached a 250-day high within the past 20 trading days. The screening criteria include analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path stability, and continuity of new highs. The formula for calculating the 250-day new high distance is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. A value of 0 indicates a new high, while positive values indicate the degree of fallback from the high[20][22][23] - Stocks are further filtered based on the following metrics: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 6 months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in 250-day returns within the sample pool - Price path stability: Evaluated using metrics like price displacement ratio - Continuity of new highs: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days[23][22][20] - The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" achieved an absolute return of 6.90% and an excess return of 5.25% relative to the Hang Seng Index for the week of August 11-15, 2025. Year-to-date, the portfolio has delivered an absolute return of 61.44% and an excess return of 35.47%[17][19] - The annualized performance metrics for the "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" include an IR of 1.22, tracking error of 14.55%, and a maximum drawdown of 23.73%. The portfolio's return-to-drawdown ratio is 0.78[19] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening Method" identified 17 stocks in the pharmaceutical sector, followed by 8 in technology, 7 in consumer, 7 in financials, and 6 in cyclical industries. Examples include HeYu-B, which achieved a 250-day new high distance of 0.0% and a 447.9% return over the past 250 days[22][23][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23]. Core Views - The company reported strong retail growth, with a revenue of 356.7 billion yuan for the quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of 22%. The retail segment alone generated 310.1 billion yuan, up 21% year-over-year, driven by robust performance in self-operated categories and a continuous improvement in operational capabilities [10][11]. - New business revenue reached 13.9 billion yuan, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 199%, although it incurred an operating loss of 14.8 billion yuan primarily due to investments in the food delivery business [2][11]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its system capabilities and deepening e-commerce synergies to drive further growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV) [11]. Revenue Summary - The company achieved total revenue of 356.7 billion yuan, with retail revenue contributing 310.1 billion yuan, and logistics revenue at 51.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 17% [10][11]. - The retail business continues to benefit from government subsidies, particularly in the home appliance category, which grew by 23% year-over-year [10][11]. Profitability Summary - The non-GAAP net profit for the company was 7.4 billion yuan, down 49% year-over-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 2.1% [2][11]. - The operating profit margin (OPM) for the retail business was 4.5%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-over-year, indicating improvements in procurement costs and supply chain efficiency [11]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1,335.4 billion yuan, 1,420.2 billion yuan, and 1,488.7 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting slight upward adjustments [2][23]. - Due to increased losses in the new business segment, the forecast for annual operating losses has been revised from 16.4 billion yuan to 42.7 billion yuan [2][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5][26]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 reached $5.3 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 38%, driven primarily by strong performance in e-commerce and digital financial services [9][26]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $828 million, with a corresponding profit margin of 16% [9]. - The e-commerce segment saw revenue of $3.8 billion, up 34% year-over-year, with GMV growth of 28% [12][26]. - Digital financial services generated $883 million in revenue, a 70% increase year-over-year, with a stable non-performing loan rate of 1.0% [16][26]. - The digital entertainment segment reported revenue of $559 million, a 28% increase year-over-year, with an expected annual revenue growth of over 30% [19][26]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The company reported a total revenue of $5.3 billion for Q2 2025, with a net profit of $410 million and a net profit margin of 8% [9][26]. E-commerce Business - E-commerce revenue was $3.8 billion, with a GMV growth of 28% year-over-year. The platform's monetization rate improved from 10.3% to 11.1% [12][26]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the e-commerce segment was $228 million, with a profit margin of 6.0% [12][26]. Digital Financial Services - Digital financial services achieved revenue of $883 million, a 70% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA of $255 million and a profit margin of 29% [16][26]. - The total receivables reached $6.9 billion, a 90% increase year-over-year, with over 4 million new first-time borrowers added in the quarter [16][26]. Digital Entertainment - The digital entertainment segment generated $559 million in revenue, with a 23% increase in revenue streams. The number of paying users reached 61.8 million, an 18% year-over-year increase [19][26]. - The company expects the annual revenue growth for digital entertainment to exceed 30% [19][26]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to $21.6 billion, $26.4 billion, and $30.4 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of $1.8 billion, $2.9 billion, and $3.8 billion [26].

- The report tracks the performance of Guosen JinGong's index enhancement portfolios and public fund index enhancement products, as well as monitors the performance of common stock selection factors across different sample spaces[11][12][15] - Guosen JinGong's index enhancement portfolios are constructed based on three main components: return prediction, risk control, and portfolio optimization. These portfolios are benchmarked against indices such as CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500[12][14] - The report introduces the concept of Maximized Factor Exposure (MFE) portfolios to test the effectiveness of single factors under real-world constraints. The optimization model maximizes single-factor exposure while controlling for style, industry, stock weight deviations, and other constraints[41][42][43] - The optimization model for MFE portfolios is expressed as: $\begin{array}{ll}max&f^{T}\ w\\ s.t.&s_{l}\leq X(w-w_{b})\leq s_{h}\\ &h_{l}\leq H(w-w_{b})\leq h_{h}\\ &w_{l}\leq w-w_{b}\leq w_{h}\\ &b_{l}\leq B_{b}w\leq b_{h}\\ &\mathbf{0}\leq w\leq l\\ &\mathbf{1}^{T}\ w=1\end{array}$ where `f` represents factor values, `w` is the stock weight vector, and constraints include style exposure, industry exposure, stock weight deviations, and component stock weight limits[41][42] - The report tracks the performance of single-factor MFE portfolios across different sample spaces, including CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI A500, and public fund heavy positions index. Factors are evaluated based on their excess returns relative to benchmarks[15][18][26] - Common stock selection factors are categorized into valuation, reversal, growth, profitability, liquidity, company governance, and analyst dimensions. Examples include BP (Book-to-Price), ROA (Return on Assets), and one-year momentum[16][17] - In the CSI 300 sample space, factors such as single-season ROA, standardized unexpected income, and standardized unexpected earnings performed well recently, while factors like one-month volatility and three-month volatility performed poorly[19] - In the CSI 500 sample space, factors such as one-year momentum and standardized unexpected earnings showed strong performance recently, while factors like one-month turnover and three-month volatility underperformed[21] - In the CSI 1000 sample space, factors such as one-year momentum and standardized unexpected earnings performed well recently, while factors like BP and single-season SP (Sales-to-Price) performed poorly[23] - In the CSI A500 sample space, factors such as DELTAROA (Change in ROA) and standardized unexpected income performed well recently, while factors like three-month volatility and one-month turnover performed poorly[25] - In the public fund heavy positions index sample space, factors such as one-year momentum and DELTAROA performed well recently, while factors like one-month turnover and three-month turnover underperformed[27] - Public fund index enhancement products are tracked for their excess returns relative to benchmarks. For CSI 300 products, recent weekly excess returns ranged from -1.41% to 1.91%, with a median of -0.09%[32] - For CSI 500 products, recent weekly excess returns ranged from -2.05% to 0.52%, with a median of -0.51%[34] - For CSI 1000 products, recent weekly excess returns ranged from -1.70% to 0.94%, with a median of -0.53%[37] - For CSI A500 products, recent weekly excess returns ranged from -1.10% to 0.71%, with a median of -0.25%[40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][19] Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in net profit in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 471 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.77%, and a net profit of 147 million yuan, up 15.33% year-on-year. The growth is attributed to the increased domestic market penetration and localization of polymer material additives [1][9][10] - The company is the largest domestic seller of nucleating agents and is positioned to benefit from the increasing domestic substitution rate due to rising international trade tensions. The nucleating agent market is expected to exceed 1 billion USD globally by 2025 [2][18] - The company plans to continue seeking strategic acquisitions to enhance its competitive strength and promote high-quality development, despite the recent termination of a planned acquisition of a leading ITO target material company [2][18] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the nucleating agent segment generated 297 million yuan in revenue, a 17.29% increase year-on-year, accounting for 62.97% of total revenue with a gross margin of 56.05% [10] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 301 million, 350 million, and 402 million yuan respectively, with diluted EPS of 1.60, 1.86, and 2.13 yuan [3][19] - The company’s overall sales gross margin was 45.79%, with a net profit margin of 31.26% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year improvement [9][10] Business Segmentation - The nucleating agent segment is the largest contributor to revenue, followed by synthetic hydrotalcite and antioxidant segments, with significant growth observed in the antioxidant segment, which saw a 129% year-on-year increase in revenue [10] - International revenue reached 120 million yuan, a 70.08% increase year-on-year, indicating strong overseas market performance [10] Market Outlook - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for nucleating agents and synthetic hydrotalcite, with a focus on expanding both domestic and international markets [2][18] - The anticipated increase in the domestic substitution rate for nucleating agents is expected to accelerate due to international trade risks, providing further growth opportunities for the company [2][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for First Solar (FSLR.O) is "Outperform" [5][37]. Core Views - First Solar's component sales are steadily increasing, benefiting from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which favors domestic photovoltaic companies in the U.S. [2][37]. - The company maintains a robust order backlog, with 61.9 GW of orders as of the end of Q2 2025, and potential orders reaching 83.3 GW [2][30]. - The IRA is reshaping the U.S. photovoltaic supply chain, providing a competitive advantage to companies with domestic production capabilities [2][36]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, First Solar reported revenues of $1.942 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, while net profit was $551 million, down 6% year-on-year [1][9]. - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenues of $1.097 billion, up 9% year-on-year and 30% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of $342 million, down 2% year-on-year but up 63% quarter-on-quarter [1][9]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 45.6%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 31.2%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [1][9]. Sales and Orders - In Q2 2025, First Solar sold 3.6 GW of components, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase and a 22% quarter-on-quarter increase [2][22]. - The average selling price of components was $0.31/W, up $0.01/W year-on-year and $0.02/W quarter-on-quarter [2][22]. - The company signed new orders of 0.9 GW in the first half of 2025, while canceling 1.1 GW of existing orders due to policy uncertainties [2][30]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for First Solar for 2025-2027 is maintained at $1.58 billion, $1.95 billion, and $2.49 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 22.0%, 23.7%, and 27.7% respectively [3][37]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be $14.76, $18.21, and $23.26 for 2025-2027, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 12.5, 10.2, and 7.9 [3][37]. Market Position - The company’s financial health remains strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 14.79x as of the end of Q2 2025, an improvement from 13.08x at the end of the previous year [9]. - First Solar's production capacity is approximately 21 GW, with plans to increase U.S. production to 14 GW and global capacity to 25 GW by the end of 2025 [30][36].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][36][41] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a net profit growth of 68% year-on-year, despite a decline in revenue [1][3] - The recovery in profitability is attributed to high capacity utilization and a decrease in raw material costs, leading to a substantial recovery in gross margin [3][36] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 57.67% [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.591 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.99% year-on-year, primarily due to cautious ordering from downstream customers influenced by U.S. tariff policies [1] - The gross margin improved by 5.20 percentage points to 15.20%, benefiting from high operating rates in domestic and Vietnamese factories and a decline in raw material costs [1][34] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 390 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.53% [1][3] Market Trends - The second quarter saw a revenue of 1.86 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in orders expected following the implementation of U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese exports [2][3] - The gross margin for the second quarter increased by 2.01 percentage points year-on-year to 15.51%, driven by improved operating rates and lower raw material costs [2] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain high operating rates and benefit from low-cost cotton inventory, leading to sustained high profitability [3][36] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 has been raised to 660 million, 700 million, and 740 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 61.9% in 2025 [3][36][37] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 0.44 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 [37][38] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 8.383 billion yuan [5][38]

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify hot sectors. The model calculates the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days using the formula: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Closet}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where Closet represents the latest closing price, and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of fallback [11][12][13] - The report evaluates the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies, citing research that stocks near their 52-week highs tend to outperform those far from their highs. It references methodologies from George (2004), William O'Neil's CANSLIM system, and Mark Minervini's "Stock Market Wizard" to emphasize the importance of tracking stocks consistently hitting new highs [11][19][22] - A screening method for "stable new high stocks" is introduced, focusing on stocks with smooth price paths and sustained momentum. The criteria include analyst attention (minimum 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months), relative price strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price path smoothness (evaluated by metrics like price displacement ratio), and trend persistence (average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days). The top 50 stocks meeting these criteria are selected [26][29][30] - The report identifies 1480 stocks that hit 250-day new highs in the past 20 trading days. Among them, the mechanical, pharmaceutical, and basic chemical industries have the highest number of new high stocks, while steel, defense, and non-ferrous metals have the highest proportion of new high stocks. By index, the highest proportions are found in CSI 2000 (27.55%), CSI 1000 (23.50%), and CSI 500 (24.60%) [20][21][34] - The report highlights the distribution of stable new high stocks across sectors, with manufacturing and technology leading the count (16 and 15 stocks, respectively). Within manufacturing, the mechanical industry dominates, while electronics lead in the technology sector [30][34] - The quantitative model's backtesting results show that major indices like SSE Composite, SZSE Component, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, ChiNext, and STAR 50 have 250-day new high distances of 0.00%, 0.00%, 1.26%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.63%, and 2.27%, respectively. Industry indices such as pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, electronics, and light manufacturing are close to their 250-day highs, while food and beverage, coal, real estate, consumer services, and banking are far from their highs [12][13][33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][31] Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 3.192 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing an 11.2% year-on-year growth, driven primarily by cloud services [8][18] - The annual recurring revenue (ARR) from cloud subscriptions reached approximately 3.73 billion yuan, with an 18.5% year-on-year increase, indicating a stable growth trajectory despite macroeconomic pressures [9][31] - The company aims for AI revenue to account for 30% of total revenue by 2030, with a focus on integrating AI into its management software solutions [26][31] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a net loss of 98 million yuan, a significant reduction of 55% compared to the previous year, with a net loss margin of 3.1% [2][18] - Gross margin improved to 65.6%, with cloud subscription business gross margin reaching 96.2% [2][18] - Operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 18.22 million yuan, showing an 89% improvement year-on-year [9][36] Revenue Breakdown - Cloud service revenue accounted for 83.7% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 11.9% [8][17] - Large enterprise cloud business revenue grew by 41.1%, while medium and small enterprises saw growth rates of 19% and 23.8%, respectively [17][18] Cost Management - The company reduced its total operating expenses by 5%, with specific reductions in sales and R&D expenses [2][19] - Employee count decreased by 9%, leading to a 19.4% increase in revenue per employee [19][36] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 7.123 billion, 8.138 billion, and 9.382 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a slight downward revision [3][33] - Profitability is expected to improve, with net profit projections for 2025-2027 adjusted to 145 million, 400 million, and 633 million yuan, respectively [3][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The central bank's attitude towards protecting the liquidity is clear, and the capital interest rate is expected to decline in August [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Key Monetary Market Indicator Change Tracking - The Fed did not cut interest rates in July, and the short - term interest rate of US Treasury bonds remained stable. Since July, the 3 - month US Treasury bond rate has been stable, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The US federal funds rate and SOFR rate have been operating stably [2][6]. - The benchmark interest rates of Japan, the eurozone, and the US as of specific dates are 0.5% (Japan: policy target rate of base money on 2025 - 01 - 24), 2.15% (eurozone: benchmark interest rate of main refinancing operations on 2025 - 6 - 5), and 4.25 - 4.50% (US: federal funds target rate range on 2024 - 12 - 18) [8]. Domestic Key Monetary Market Indicator Change Tracking Price Indicators - After crossing the end of the half - year, in July, the average values of repurchase rates in the inter - bank and exchange markets mostly declined. R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 monthly average values changed by - 3BP, - 25BP, - 10BP, and - 14BP respectively [2][10][15]. - The monthly average values of short - term bond yields mostly declined. For 1 - year short - term bonds such as 1 - year Treasury bonds, 1 - year China Development Bank bonds, and 1 - year AAA commercial paper, their yields decreased to different degrees [15][36]. - In July, the average value of DR007 decreased slightly. The average values of DR001 and DR007 were 1.39% and 1.52%, changing by 0BP and - 6BP respectively compared with the previous month. The 1 - day and 7 - day spread averages of R and DR changed by - 4BP [22]. - The average value of exchange repurchase rates mostly declined in July. The average values of GC001 and GC007 were 1.45% and 1.54%, down 25BP and 14BP respectively from the previous month [26]. - The average monthly interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) decreased slightly in July. The interest rates of 1 - year high - grade and low - grade CDs both decreased by 3BP [31]. - The 7 - day annualized yield of money funds declined. The 7 - day average annualized yield of Yu'E Bao decreased to 1.09% in July, and the average 7 - day annualized yields of Yu'E Bao and the top ten money funds decreased by - 9BP and - 7BP respectively compared with the previous month [39]. Quantity Indicators - In July, the overnight trading volumes in the inter - bank and exchange markets decreased compared with the previous month, while their proportions increased. The average daily trading volume of R001 in the inter - bank market was 6.70 trillion, accounting for 88.3%, and that of GC001 in the exchange market was 1.86 trillion, accounting for 87.0% [44]. - The average monthly year - on - year balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank and exchange markets decreased compared with the previous month. The year - on - year balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank market decreased by 3% in July, and that in the exchange market decreased by 2% [51]. - The excess deposit reserve ratio decreased compared with the previous month. It is estimated that the excess deposit reserve ratios in July and August are 1.3% and 1.2% respectively. In July, fiscal deposits increased seasonally by 770 billion yuan due to tax payment periods and high government bond issuance [48][50]. Capital Outlook Five - Channel Prediction - **M0**: In July, M0 increased seasonally by 9.73 billion yuan, and it is estimated to increase by 5.5 billion yuan in August [63]. - **Legal Deposit Reserves**: In July, RMB loans declined for the first time in nearly 20 years, and financial institutions' RMB deposits increased by 500 billion yuan. It is expected that deposits will increase by 2500 billion yuan in August, resulting in an increase of 155 billion yuan in legal deposit reserves [64]. - **Fiscal Deposits**: Fiscal deposits increased by 770 billion yuan in July due to tax payment periods and high - volume government bond issuance. It is expected to increase by 600 billion yuan in August [67]. - **Foreign Exchange Holdings**: Due to the suspension of China - US tariff negotiations for 90 days, the increase of the average global tariff rate by the US, and the new 40% transit tariff, foreign exchange holdings are expected to decrease by 70 billion yuan in August [72]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank is expected to conduct net injections to maintain a loose capital market. In July, the central bank conducted net injections through open - market operations and买断式repurchase operations. It is expected to conduct net injections of 400 billion yuan in August through these two methods, and the excess deposit reserve ratio is estimated to be 1.2% in August after comprehensive consideration of the five - channel changes [80]. Main Conclusion - Historically, in August, most of the inter - bank overnight repurchase rates declined. The median monthly average change of R001 in the past three years was - 4BP, and that of R007 was - 2BP [81]. - The central bank's operation on the first - round local bond issuance day after the restoration of VAT on government bonds and financial bonds shows a clear attitude of maintaining a stable and loose liquidity. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, which provides space for China's monetary policy. It is expected that the market interest rate will decline seasonally in August [84][85].