证券研究报告 | 2025年10月15日 9 月进出口数据点评 硝烟再起，外贸逆势突围 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 10 月 13 日，海关总署发布进出口数据。我国 9 月出口（以美元计价，后同）同比增长 8.3%，进口增长 7.4%， 贸易顺差 904.5 亿美元。1-8 月出口累计同比增长 6.1%，进口下降 1.1%，贸易顺差 8750.8 亿美元。 评论： 出口超预期，节日需求与低基数共振 总体上看，节日需求释放与基数效应叠加，助力三季度我国外贸实现平稳收官。 图1：出口金额 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has introduced a policy that includes minimum consumption targets for renewable energy, marking a significant shift towards a multi-energy consumption model that includes green hydrogen and methanol [3][6][8] - The policy creates a mandatory assessment framework for renewable energy consumption, expanding the focus from solely electricity to include non-electric consumption, thereby enhancing market demand for green hydrogen and methanol [5][7] - The introduction of punitive measures for failing to meet renewable energy consumption targets significantly strengthens the policy's enforcement and provides a clear long-term signal to the market [7][8] Summary by Sections Policy Overview - On October 13, the NDRC released a draft policy outlining minimum consumption targets for renewable energy, which can be achieved through various methods for both electric and non-electric consumption [3][5] - The policy emphasizes the inclusion of green hydrogen and methanol as compliant pathways, indicating a strategic focus on these sectors [3][8] Market Implications - The new policy is expected to create a substantial institutional market demand for green hydrogen and methanol, enhancing the certainty and market expectations for the industry [3][9] - The strategic opportunity for the green hydrogen and methanol industry is highlighted, with recommendations to focus on companies such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., SANY Heavy Energy, Hewei Electric, and Huadian Technology [3][9] Financial Projections - Financial forecasts for related companies indicate growth in net profits, with Goldwind Technology projected to achieve a net profit of 1.86 billion RMB in 2024, increasing to 3.67 billion RMB by 2026 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1][4][10] Core Views - JD Group is expected to report a strong revenue performance for Q3 2025, with an estimated revenue of CNY 293.9 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%. This growth is primarily driven by government subsidies boosting retail revenue growth [3][5] - The Non-GAAP net profit margin is projected to decline by 4 percentage points year-on-year to 1.4% for Q3 2025, influenced by ongoing losses in the new food delivery business, although there are signs of improvement in user experience (UE) [3][6] - The company is adjusting its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to CNY 1,334.8 billion, CNY 1,419.7 billion, and CNY 1,488.2 billion respectively, with a slight increase in net profit forecasts for the same period [4][10] Revenue Performance - Q3 2025 revenue is expected to be CNY 293.9 billion, up 13% year-on-year, with JD Retail revenue growth anticipated at 11%. The growth in the electronics category is expected to be in the high single digits, while daily necessities are projected to grow in double digits [3][5] - The food delivery business is expected to see a significant revenue increase of 230% in Q3 2025, benefiting from seasonal demand [3][5] Operational Insights - The estimated GMV growth for JD in Q3 2025 is around 15%, with market share continuing to recover, largely driven by the "old-for-new" subsidy program in the electronics category [3][5] - Active purchasing users and purchase frequency in e-commerce are showing strong growth, with 40% of new food delivery users converting to main site users by July [3][5] Profitability Analysis - The Non-GAAP net profit margin is expected to be 1.4% for Q3 2025, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year. However, JD Retail's operating profit margin is projected to improve by 0.3 percentage points due to enhanced supply chain efficiency and increased commission and advertising revenue [6][10] - The losses from the new food delivery business are impacting overall profitability, but improvements in delivery efficiency and targeted subsidies are helping to reduce these losses [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for performance recovery in the express delivery sector due to the "anti-involution" policies, which are expected to last until the end of the year or even until the Spring Festival next year [6][7] - The coal industry is anticipated to see a rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025, with clear bottom signals and improving profitability as coal prices are expected to rise [10][11] - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a risk premium, with a reevaluation of its valuation logic, particularly in light of recent economic conditions [14][15] Transportation Industry - The express delivery sector is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies, which have led to price increases across approximately 90% of the delivery volume in China [6][7] - The shipping industry is facing challenges due to mutual port fees imposed by the US and China, affecting over 40% of shipping capacity, with varying impacts across different shipping segments [6] - The aviation sector is seeing a stabilization in domestic ticket prices, with a projected recovery in profitability as the economy improves [6][7] Coal Industry - The coal sector is showing signs of a bottoming out, with expectations for a price rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by supply constraints and seasonal demand increases [10][11] - Coal production has decreased due to weather conditions and regulatory measures, with a projected annual output decline of 1.1% [11][12] - Demand for coal is expected to rise in the winter months, supported by increased electricity consumption and chemical coal needs [12][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with stable operations and potential for steady returns, including SF Express, Zhongtong Express, and Southern Airlines, among others [8][21] - In the coal sector, companies like Yancoal and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted as potential investment targets due to their expected performance recovery [14] - The automotive glass market is projected to grow significantly, with recommendations for investing in leading companies like Fuyao Glass, which is well-positioned to capitalize on market trends [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][2] Core Views - The company has entered an expansion phase driven by the opening of new markets, enhancing its trade service capabilities. The third quarter saw accelerated performance with revenue reaching 5.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.02%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 1.766 billion yuan, up 100.52% year-on-year [1][2] - The company benefits from the global digital trade center that commenced its recruitment work in June, leading to increased entrance qualification fees and steady rental growth in its core business. The cross-border payment business also contributed significantly, with transaction volume exceeding 27 billion yuan, a growth of over 35% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023: Revenue of 11.30 billion yuan, net profit of 2.68 billion yuan - 2024: Revenue of 15.74 billion yuan, net profit of 3.07 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 20.72 billion yuan, net profit of 4.69 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 27.49 billion yuan, net profit of 7.03 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 33.60 billion yuan, net profit of 8.39 billion yuan [3][15] - The company’s gross margin improved to 45.41%, an increase of 15.31 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to higher-margin entrance qualification fees and cost optimization [1][2] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters reached 9.605 billion yuan, a significant increase of 2021.98% year-on-year, benefiting from the collection of fees from the global digital trade center and sales from commercial properties [1][2] Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 22.3, 14.9, and 12.5 respectively, reflecting an upward revision in net profit forecasts due to the opening of the global digital trade center [2][3] - The estimated EBIT margin is expected to improve from 15.90% in 2023 to 30.48% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [3][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][9] Core Views - The company reported a retail performance for Q3 2025 with approximately 10% growth in both the main brand's offline retail and children's clothing, and around 20% growth in e-commerce [3][4] - The company continues to innovate products to meet diverse consumer needs and has expanded its super stores to 93 locations, maintaining stable inventory levels and slightly increasing discounts [4][6][9] - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecasts, with projected net profits of 1.25 billion, 1.35 billion, and 1.48 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.5%, 8.7%, and 9.4% respectively [4][10][11] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In Q3 2025, the adult apparel offline sales grew by approximately 10%, children's apparel also grew by about 10%, and e-commerce sales increased by around 20%, with growth rates remaining stable compared to previous quarters [4][5][6] Product Innovation - The company has launched new products across various categories, including running shoes with enhanced waterproof technology, basketball shoes with advanced design features, and children's shoes tailored for young athletes [6][7] Channel Expansion - The company has expanded its super stores to 93, with 44 new stores opened in Q3. These stores offer a comprehensive range of products and a one-stop shopping experience [6][7] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth of 21% in 2023, 19.6% in 2024, and 11% in 2025, with net profit growth of 28.7% in 2023 and 19.5% in 2024 [10][14]

- The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a significant decline, with technology stocks showing notable pullbacks[1] - The market sentiment at the close showed 45 stocks hitting the upper limit and 9 stocks hitting the lower limit[1] - The financing balance as of October 13, 2025, was 24,279 billion yuan, and the securities lending balance was 165 billion yuan[1] - The ETF with the highest premium on October 13, 2025, was the ChiNext 50 ETF from Huaxia, with a premium of 1.42%[2] - The ETF with the highest discount on October 13, 2025, was the 500 Growth ETF, with a discount of 1.58%[2] - The median annualized discount rates for the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures over the past year were 0.05%, 2.67%, 10.28%, and 12.79%, respectively[2] - The annualized discount rate for the main contract of the SSE 50 index futures on October 14, 2025, was 0.48%, at the 44th percentile over the past year[2] - The annualized discount rate for the main contract of the CSI 300 index futures on October 14, 2025, was 3.66%, at the 40th percentile over the past year[2] - The annualized discount rate for the main contract of the CSI 500 index futures on October 14, 2025, was 13.38%, at the 33rd percentile over the past year[2] - The annualized discount rate for the main contract of the CSI 1000 index futures on October 14, 2025, was 16.06%, at the 33rd percentile over the past year[2] - The stocks with the highest net inflows from institutional seats on October 14, 2025, included Kemet Gas, Lihexing, and Intelligent Forging[3] - The stocks with the highest net outflows from institutional seats on October 14, 2025, included Pure Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Xingye Yinxin[3] - The stocks with the highest net inflows from Northbound funds on October 14, 2025, included Zhejiang Rongtai, Shanzi Gaoke, and Demingli[3] - The stocks with the highest net outflows from Northbound funds on October 14, 2025, included Tongfu Microelectronics, Zotye Auto, and Chunzong Technology[3]

- The report introduces a method for calculating index dividend points, which is crucial for accurately estimating the premium or discount of stock index futures contracts. The calculation considers the dividend impact of index constituent stocks on the index level. The formula for dividend points is: $ \text{Dividend Points} = \sum_{n=1}^{N} \left( \frac{\text{Dividend Amount of Component Stock}}{\text{Total Market Value of Component Stock}} \times \text{Component Stock Weight} \times \text{Index Closing Price} \right) $ Here, $N$ represents the number of constituent stocks, and the dividend date must fall between the current date $t$ and the futures contract expiration date $T$[42][43][45] - The report discusses the estimation of component stock weights, which are essential for calculating dividend points. The weights are adjusted dynamically based on the non-reinvested price changes of the stocks. The formula for estimating the weight of a stock $n$ at time $t$ is: $ W_{n,t} = \frac{w_{n0} \times (1 + r_{n})}{\sum_{i=1}^{N} w_{i0} \times (1 + r_{i})} $ Here, $w_{n0}$ is the weight of stock $n$ at the last disclosed date $t_0$, and $r_{n}$ is the non-reinvested price change of stock $n$ between $t_0$ and $t$[46] - The report explains the estimation of dividend amounts for constituent stocks. If the dividend amount is not disclosed, it is estimated using the formula: $ \text{Dividend Amount} = \text{Net Profit} \times \text{Dividend Payout Ratio} $ Net profit is predicted based on historical profit distribution patterns, and the dividend payout ratio is estimated using historical averages or previous years' data[48][51][52] - The report provides a method for predicting the ex-dividend date of constituent stocks. If the ex-dividend date is not disclosed, it is estimated using historical intervals between dividend announcement dates and ex-dividend dates. If historical data is insufficient or unreliable, default dates are used based on typical dividend schedules[52][57] - The accuracy of the index dividend point estimation model is analyzed. For the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and CSI 300 Index, the annual prediction error is approximately 5 points, while for the CSI 500 Index, the error is around 10 points. The model demonstrates high accuracy for predicting dividend points of stock index futures contracts, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 showing the best results[58][62] - The report tracks the premium and discount levels of stock index futures contracts, considering the impact of dividends. It analyzes daily basis spreads, the trend of premium/discount for main contracts, the term structure of basis spreads, and the historical percentile levels of current basis spreads. For example, as of October 14, 2025, the IH main contract is at the 72% historical percentile, IF at 73%, IC at 27%, and IM at 36%[13][27][31] - The report provides detailed data on the annualized premium/discount rates for various stock index futures contracts as of October 14, 2025. For IH, the annualized premium ranges from 1.15% to 20.26%; for IF, it ranges from -1.93% to 11.39%; for IC, it ranges from -11.13% to -67.88%; and for IM, it ranges from -14.11% to -52.57%[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a new understanding of the equity risk premium (ERP), suggesting that it is significantly influenced by short-term growth expectations, particularly the nominal GDP growth rate in USD terms [1][2]. - The analysis identifies a strong correlation between the Hang Seng Index's ERP and the short-term growth rate of China's nominal GDP, with a correlation coefficient of -0.8, indicating that predicting ERP is effectively predicting short-term growth [2][4]. - The report outlines three phases of the current bull market in Hong Kong stocks, driven by factors such as the recovery of US dollar liquidity, changes in domestic policy, and expectations of aggressive monetary easing by the US government [3][4]. Summary by Sections Risk Premium: A Short-Term Growth Indicator - The report revisits the concept of ERP, previously viewed as a stable emotional indicator, and suggests that recent market conditions have led to a re-evaluation of its significance [1][14]. - It highlights that the ERP has broken historical lower limits, particularly in the context of the Hang Seng Index, which reflects a shift in nominal growth expectations [1][19]. Direct Derivation of Short-Term Growth - The report breaks down China's nominal GDP growth into three components: real GDP growth, inflation, and exchange rate changes, emphasizing the importance of these factors in predicting short-term growth [45][46]. - It notes that while real GDP growth is a primary driver, inflation and exchange rate fluctuations have become increasingly significant in recent years [46][51]. Reconstruction of Short-Term Growth Framework - The report proposes a new framework for predicting short-term growth by focusing on the relationship between China's real GDP and the value of the US dollar, suggesting that these factors are more relevant than previously considered [69][75]. - It concludes that the value of Chinese assets in USD terms is primarily determined by China's real GDP and the ratio of US dollar supply to US real GDP, simplifying the predictive model for nominal GDP growth [75].

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive glass industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The automotive glass industry is experiencing rapid penetration of panoramic glass roofs, with a projected penetration rate of 18% by 2024. The next generation of products is expected to address three main pain points: heat insulation, privacy, and interaction [1][15] - The market for automotive glass is anticipated to reach 115 billion yuan globally by 2026, with significant growth driven by product upgrades and the increasing value of glass components in vehicles [3][15] - Fuyao Glass is highlighted as a leading player in the industry, with a market share exceeding 36%, and is expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing evolution of automotive glass products [3][15] Summary by Sections Section: Heat Insulation Glass - Heat insulation glass is currently in the 1-N stage, with two main solutions: physical sunshades and chemical coatings. The latter, primarily using silver ion LOW-E coatings, can block over 98% of UV rays and part of infrared heat, with prices around 1500 yuan [1][52][68] - The market for heat insulation glass is expected to grow as it effectively reduces interior temperatures by 7-8°C, enhancing user comfort [1][68] Section: Dimmer Glass - Dimmer glass addresses privacy concerns and is in the 0-1 stage. Current technologies include PDLC, EC, and LC films, with PDLC being the most cost-effective and quickest to market. Prices for dimmer glass range from 3000 to 10000 yuan [2][69][73] - The market for dimmer glass is projected to reach 140 million yuan by 2030, driven by the adoption of high-cost-performance solutions [2][15] Section: Display Glass - Display-grade glass is still in the early stages of mass production but holds significant long-term potential for interactive applications within vehicles. This includes integrating screens and HUDs into the glass [3][15] - The report suggests that display glass could become a key medium for human-vehicle interaction, with various innovative applications being explored [3][15] Section: Key Companies and Financial Projections - Fuyao Glass is rated as "Outperform" with an estimated EPS of 3.83 yuan for 2025 and a PE ratio of 18 [4] - Other companies such as Yutian Guanjia and Keli Equipment are also rated as "Outperform," indicating a positive outlook for their growth in the automotive glass sector [4][15] Section: Market Trends and Projections - The report forecasts that the penetration rate of panoramic roofs will increase to 37% by 2030, with the market size expected to reach 340 billion yuan [15][49] - The automotive glass market is projected to grow significantly, with the overall market size expected to rise from 173 billion yuan in 2025 to 342 billion yuan by 2030 [50]