Group 1 - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the Hong Kong stock market, indicating that a breakthrough of previous highs requires new catalysts [1][4] - The US stock market is in a rebound trend, reaching historical highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both showing significant gains of 3.4% and 4.2% respectively [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance has increased the probability of interest rate cuts, with expectations rising to three cuts by the end of the year [1][16] Group 2 - Concerns over "capital tax" have eased as the US government is likely to repeal Clause 899, which could have led to foreign capital withdrawal from US assets [2] - Optimism surrounding AI continues to drive the technology narrative, with strong performance and guidance from companies like Micron Technology and Nvidia [2][3] - The report notes that the US stock market is experiencing a return of funds, with significant inflows into US stock ETFs, totaling nearly $42.7 billion over two weeks [3][19] Group 3 - In the short term, the US stock market is expected to experience a primarily upward trend, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions and ongoing AI investment enthusiasm [3][4] - The report highlights that the upcoming quarter is crucial for observing economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, which will guide market movements [4][5] - The report indicates that the financial environment in the US remains at a relatively low level, providing a supportive backdrop for market growth [4][19] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that despite uncertainties, the US stock market is expected to return to a trajectory driven by economic fundamentals and corporate earnings resilience in the second half of the year [4][19] - The report notes that the inflow of funds into the financial, healthcare, and industrial sectors is notable, while significant outflows are observed in the information technology sector [5][15] - The report also mentions that gold ETFs have seen substantial inflows, particularly in the US and Ireland, indicating a shift in investment preferences [6][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The change in the company's chairman will not affect the strategic position of Yiwu and the Small Commodity City as a crucial hub for non-US exports. The ongoing reforms in Yiwu's international trade and the business transformation of the Small Commodity City are expected to continue driving high growth trends [7] - The company’s major shareholder has completed its share buyback plan, demonstrating confidence in the company's future development and long-term investment value [7] - The company is actively pursuing new market recruitment, with the toy and beauty markets currently open for recruitment, indicating ongoing expansion efforts [7] - The financial forecasts for the company show significant growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected net profits of 4.23 billion, 5.71 billion, and 6.83 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 38%, 35%, and 19% [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 15.74 billion RMB in 2024, growing to 33.23 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.68% [1][8] - The company's net profit is expected to increase from 3.07 billion RMB in 2024 to 6.83 billion RMB in 2027, with a CAGR of 19.46% [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.56 RMB in 2024 to 1.24 RMB in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 19.58 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 107.37 billion RMB [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.93 based on the latest diluted EPS [1][5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [1] Core Insights - The computing power sector is experiencing strong momentum, with stocks of companies like Broadcom and NVIDIA reaching new highs due to optimistic statements from NVIDIA's shareholder meeting and the first China AI Computing Power Conference [1][2] - The report identifies "Tokens consumption" as a key observation point for the domestic computing power market, highlighting significant growth in token consumption by major companies like ByteDance [2][3] - The report emphasizes that the domestic computing power industry is expected to grow significantly, driven by terminal computing power demand and advancements in domestic accelerator chip architecture [3] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computing power industry has seen a robust performance, with notable stock price increases in various segments, including PCB/CCL, copper cable, and optical chips [1] - NVIDIA's stock recovery reflects market recognition of the sustained growth in AI demand, with a reported fivefold increase in AI model request volume from Microsoft compared to the same period last year [1] Market Dynamics - The rebound in computing power is divided into two phases: the first phase was driven by optimistic spending guidance from major North American CSPs, while the second phase saw a significant increase in token consumption reported by Google [2] - The report notes that domestic companies are approaching or even surpassing international standards in several technological dimensions, indicating a strong competitive position [3] Key Companies - Relevant companies in the industry include SMIC, Chipone, Cambricon, Haiguang Information, Shenzhen South Circuit, Nanya Technology, Huafeng Technology, Chipbond, and Huaqin Technology [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cease - fire of the Israel - Iran conflict led to a significant decline in international oil prices [1] - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the weekly data of the US crude oil and refined oil markets, including prices, inventories, production, demand, and import - export volumes [2] - It also presents the performance of the petroleum and petrochemical sector and related listed companies, along with their valuations [21][24] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - The data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9] 3.2 This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review 3.2.1 Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance - Information on the sector's performance includes the sector's sub - industry price changes and the trend of the sector's sub - industries and the CSI 300 index [17] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [15][20] 3.2.2 Performance of Listed Companies in the Sector - The report shows the price changes of major companies in the upstream sector in different time periods (last week, last month, last three months, last year, and since the beginning of 2025) [22] - A valuation table for listed companies is provided, including share prices, total market values, net profits attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB ratios from 2024 to 2027 [24] 3.3 Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.3.1 Crude Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price differences of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oils, and the relationships between crude oil prices and the US dollar index, copper prices [29][39][43] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [30][32][34] 3.3.2 Crude Oil Inventory - Examines the correlation between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, and the relationship between the weekly destocking rate of US commercial crude oil and the price change of Brent crude oil [45][46] - Presents data on US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory [48][49][53] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [45][48][49] 3.3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of active crude oil rigs, and the number of active fracturing fleets, as well as their relationships with oil prices [57][58] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [57][59] 3.3.4 Crude Oil Demand - Analyzes US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery operating rate, and Shandong refinery operating rate [62][64] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [63][64] 3.3.5 Crude Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US crude oil import volume, export volume, net import volume, and the import - export volume of crude oil and petroleum products [67][70] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [68][69][70] 3.4 Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.4.1 Refined Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price differences between crude oil and domestic/US/European/Singapore gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as the wholesale - retail price differences of domestic gasoline and diesel [75][84][90] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [75][77][82] 3.4.2 Refined Oil Inventory - Presents data on US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene inventories, and Singapore gasoline and diesel inventories [102][105][111] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [102][106][112] 3.4.3 Refined Oil Supply - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production [117][118][120] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [119][120] 3.4.4 Refined Oil Demand - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene consumption, and the number of airport security checks for passengers [122][125][129] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [123][126][130] 3.4.5 Refined Oil Import and Export - Analyzes the import - export situation and net export volume of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene [132][135][136] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [133][136][137] 3.5 Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - Analyzes the average daily rates of self - elevating and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry [146][147][149] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [146][148][150]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a weekly data tracking of secondary capital bonds from June 23 to June 27, 2025, covering primary market issuance, secondary market trading, and valuation deviation of individual bonds [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance and Outstanding Situation - This week, 2 secondary capital bonds were newly issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets, with a total issuance scale of 9.1 billion yuan, a maturity of 10 years, issuers including local state - owned enterprises and large private enterprises, and issuer regions in Sichuan and Zhejiang provinces [1]. - As of June 27, 2025, the outstanding balance of secondary capital bonds reached 4,652.435 billion yuan, an increase of 490 million yuan from the previous weekend [1]. 3.2 Secondary Market Trading Situation - The weekly trading volume of secondary capital bonds this week was approximately 199 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.5 billion yuan from last week. The top three bonds in trading volume were 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01BC (15.162 billion yuan), 25 Agricultural Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01A(BC) (13.574 billion yuan), and 25 China CITIC Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01BC (9.227 billion yuan) [2]. - By issuer region, the top three in trading volume were Beijing (about 150.1 billion yuan), Shanghai (about 13 billion yuan), and Zhejiang (about 9.1 billion yuan) [2]. - As of June 27, the changes in the yields to maturity of 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y secondary capital bonds with ratings of AAA -, AA +, and AA compared to last week were 0.00BP, 0.01BP, 0.01BP; 0.04BP, 0.04BP, 0.04BP; and 0.02BP, 0.02BP, 0.02BP respectively [2]. 3.3 Top 30 Individual Bonds with Valuation Deviation - This week, the overall valuation deviation of the weekly average trading price of secondary capital bonds was not significant. The proportion of discount transactions was less than that of premium transactions, but the discount amplitude was greater than the premium amplitude [3]. - Among the discount bonds, the top three in discount rate were 21 Jiutai Rural Commercial Secondary (- 18.6593%), 22 Bank of Wenzhou Secondary 02 (- 0.9955%), and 23 Xiamen International Secondary Capital Bond 02 (- 0.4964%). The Zhongzhai implicit ratings were mainly AAA -, AA -, and A +, and the regional distribution was concentrated in Beijing, Zhejiang, and Shanghai [3]. - Among the premium bonds, the top four in premium rate were 24 Bank of Lanzhou Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.5976%), 25 Bank of Beibu Gulf Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.4365%), 24 Bank of Chang'an Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.4357%), and 22 Hengxin Rural Commercial Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.4333%). The Zhongzhai implicit ratings were mainly AAA -, AA -, and AA, and the regional distribution was concentrated in Beijing, Zhejiang, and Shanghai [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment remains stable in the first five months, with high growth rates in water transportation and water management sectors. Attention should be paid to the issuance of special bonds and the continuity of fiscal policies impacting physical investment [2][11] - The construction PMI has shown a slight recovery, indicating an acceleration in construction projects. The expectation of increased fiscal support and improved financing conditions is anticipated to gradually manifest in investment and physical volume [2][11] - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises and local state-owned enterprises with low valuations and stable performance, recommending companies such as China Communications Construction, China Electric Power Construction, and China Railway [2][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the adjustment of housing provident fund policies in various cities, which is expected to lower the burden on homebuyers and stimulate housing demand [14][15] - The central government has issued opinions on comprehensive river protection and governance, which is expected to boost investment in water-related projects and material demand [16][17] - In the first five months, China's foreign contracted projects saw a 5.4% year-on-year increase in completed turnover, with a 13% increase in new contracts. Notably, contracts in Belt and Road countries grew by 20.7% [18][19] Market Performance - The construction and decoration sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.61%, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices [23] - The report lists top-performing stocks in the sector, including Hopson Development and Hangzhou Garden, which have shown significant gains [23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that Luzhou Laojiao is rationally responding to the pains of transformation while actively seizing opportunities. The company is expected to navigate the current industry cycle effectively, with a focus on digital marketing and terminal penetration strategies [7][8] - The report predicts a decline in revenue and net profit for 2025, with adjusted forecasts for net profit at 12.35 billion, 12.88 billion, and 14.11 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8% for 2025 [1][7] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to be 29.26 billion in 2025, down 6.20% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be 12.35 billion, a decrease of 8.34% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted at 8.39 for 2025, with a P/E ratio of 13.45 [1] - The company maintains a strong dividend yield, which supports the "Buy" rating despite the anticipated decline in profits [7] Market and Strategic Insights - The report discusses the changing dynamics in the liquor industry, highlighting a shift from public to private consumption, which may lead to transitional pains for the company [7] - Luzhou Laojiao aims to leverage six key advantages to capture market opportunities, including strategic, quality, cultural, innovation, layout, and responsibility advantages [7] - The company plans to expand its market presence significantly, increasing the number of terminals from 500,000 to 4 million over the next five years [7] Financial Health Indicators - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected operating cash flow of 12.24 billion for 2025 and a projected total asset value of 70.15 billion [8] - The asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease from 30.48% in 2024 to 26.17% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant data disclosures from the 2025 ADA conference, emphasizing the potential of weight loss and muscle gain drugs, particularly in the Amylin and oral medication segments [10][16] - The report suggests focusing on differentiated drug development in weight loss, particularly the combination of multi-target GLP-1 with Amylin for enhanced efficacy [10][16] Industry Trends - The A-share pharmaceutical index has increased by 1.6% this week and 6.2% year-to-date, while the H-share biotechnology index has seen a rise of 2.7% this week and 52.7% year-to-date [9] - Notable stock performances include Shenzhou Cell (+30%), Haooubo (+27%), and Huaren Health (+25%) in the A-share market, while JunTai Holdings (+63%) and Jingyou Pharmaceutical (+62%) led in the H-share market [9] Research and Development Progress - Significant advancements in innovative drugs and modified drugs have been reported, with a focus on approvals and clinical submissions [6] - The report details the approval of the GLP-1R/GCGR dual agonist "Masitide" by Innovent Biologics, marking it as the first of its kind globally for obesity management [10][16] Specific Recommendations - The report ranks sub-industries as follows: Innovative drugs > CXO > Traditional Chinese medicine > Medical devices > Pharmacies > Pharmaceutical commerce [11] - Recommended stocks based on growth potential include: BGI, Innovent Biologics, and Hengrui Medicine, while undervalued stocks in traditional Chinese medicine include: Zhaoli Pharmaceutical and Dong'e Ejiao [11]

Group 1: Legislative Developments - The "Great American Beauty Act" has entered the Senate discussion phase, with a potential passing date before July 31, 2025[2] - The Senate passed a motion to proceed with the act by a vote of 51-49 on June 29, 2025[2] - If the Senate passes amendments, the act will return to the House for further consideration[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 9.83 basis points to 4.277% during the week of June 23-27, 2025[3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 3.44% and 4.25%, respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment[3] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q2 2025 has been revised upward to 2.9% according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model[3] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to initiate its first rate cut in Q3 2025, with a total of two cuts anticipated for the year[3] - The consumer price index (CPI) growth rate is projected to be 2.5% for Q2 2025, with slight adjustments for subsequent quarters[3] - The probability of a recession in the next year has been slightly reduced to 35% from a previous estimate of 40%[3] Group 4: Fiscal Concerns - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of the "Great American Beauty Act" could increase the deficit by $3.5 trillion over the next decade[4] - The act's provisions may raise the public debt ratio from 124% to between 125% and 128% over the next ten years[4]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 中东战争结束叠加特朗普拟提前公布下任联 储主席人选，市场全面转向 Risk On 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（6 月 23 日-6 月 27 日），有色板块本周上涨 5.11%，在全部一级行 业中排名靠前。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中能源金属板块上涨 7.21%，工业金属板块上涨 6.53%，小金属板块上涨 4.46%，贵金属板块下跌 1.48%， 金属新材料板块上涨 3.72%。工业金属方面，伊朗与以色列迅速达成停火协议，地 缘避险需求大幅降温，市场全面转向 risk on，风偏的上行以及降息的预期于本周大 幅推升工业金属价格。贵金属方面，地缘避险需求大幅降温，市场全面转向 risk on， 风偏的上行短暂压制黄金价格，我们认为市场并未充分计价美国经济步入滞胀的风 险，预计 7 月通胀上行速度将加快，黄金届时或迎来新一轮上升机会。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：长单 TC 持续回落，市场风偏上行叠加 LME 逼仓风险助推铜价上行。截至 6 月 27 日，伦铜报收 9,879 美 ...