证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 ◼ 【数据】中国移动通信联合会区块链与数据要素专业委员会现面向全国 征集"RWA 生态合作伙伴"。将在生态合作伙伴中遴选 20 家单位成立 "RWA 联合实验室"，从数据资源整合、技术研发、资金配套等方面 全方位赋能，推动 RWA 与数据要素的协同创新。 RWA 生态合作伙伴 需是面向全国从事资产数字化、数据要素融合应用、技术研发、交易流 通及服务支持的企事业单位，需具备 RWA 与数据要素协同发展的能力 或场景。此前上海数交所已推动落地我国农业领域首个 RWA 项目"马 陆葡萄"，将种植生产数据上链，完成 1000 万元融资。我们认为数据 产品化是数据资产化、资本化的基础，目前海外和国内均已有前沿落地 案例，建议关注高质量数据集建设。 北交所定期报告 20250629 市场交投活跃，看好北证 50 温和上涨趋势 2025 年 06 月 29 日 行业重要新闻： ◼ 北交所首单科技创新绿色公司债券成功发行。2025 年 6 月 25 日，中交 一公局集团有限公司在北京证券交易所（以下简称北交所）公开发行北 交所首单科技创新绿色短期公司债券。本期债券由中信证券担任牵头主 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Insights - The life insurance premium continues to grow significantly, with a focus on the virtual asset license theme [1] - The non-bank financial sector has shown resilience, with various sub-sectors outperforming the CSI 300 index recently [9][10] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, while the securities sector is poised for growth due to favorable market conditions [44] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sector Performance - All sub-sectors of non-bank financials outperformed the CSI 300 index in the recent five trading days, with multi-financials up 9.96%, securities up 7.56%, and insurance up 3.89% [9] - Year-to-date, the insurance sector has performed the best, followed by multi-financials, while the securities sector has seen a decline [10] Securities Sector - Trading volume has significantly increased, with the average daily trading amount for June reaching 15,212 billion yuan, an increase of 84.97% year-on-year [15] - The heat for virtual asset licenses is rising, with major Chinese brokers like Guotai Junan International obtaining licenses to provide virtual asset trading services [19] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is estimated at 1.2x for 2025, indicating potential for growth [22] Insurance Sector - Life insurance premiums have shown a positive trend, with total premiums for the first five months of 2025 reaching 24,473 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [24] - The regulatory focus is on promoting inclusive finance, with initiatives aimed at enhancing the supply of inclusive insurance products [26] - The insurance sector is characterized by a significant cyclical nature, with expectations for improved performance as the economy recovers [28] Multi-Financial Sector - The trust industry is entering a stable transition phase, with total trust assets reaching 29.56 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.58% [29] - The futures market saw a decline in trading volume and value in May 2025, but is expected to recover due to increased demand for risk management [36] - The report suggests that innovative risk management services will be a key growth area for the futures industry moving forward [42] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The recommended ranking for the industry is insurance > securities > other multi-financials, with key companies including New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, China Life, China Ping An, CITIC Securities, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - The current coal prices are influenced by high inventory levels and weak demand, limiting upward momentum. However, with the onset of high temperatures and the approaching peak season, there is potential for further price recovery [1]. - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 2.07 million tons week-on-week, while the average daily outflow rose by 13.60 million tons, indicating a growing demand [1][25]. - The report highlights that the average coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 28.24 million tons, down by 0.598 million tons, approaching historical normal levels [1][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.26% during the week, while the coal sector index fell by 1.00% [10]. - The average daily trading volume for coal stocks increased by 7.68% compared to the previous week [10]. 2. Coal Prices - Port coal prices increased by 11 CNY/ton, reaching 620 CNY/ton, while the price for various coal grades at production sites showed mixed trends [17]. - The price index for Bohai Rim coal remained stable at 663 CNY/ton [19]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Daily average coal inflow and outflow at the Bohai Rim ports both increased, reflecting a positive shift in demand [25][29]. - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim area rose by 15.83%, indicating increased shipping activity [29]. 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy due to their low valuations and potential for price elasticity [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the interest rate remained in a box - shaped oscillation pattern with a slight upward trend. The key factor affecting the bond market is still the tightness of the capital market. Determining the timing of the next interest rate cut or the fermentation of the interest rate cut expectation is crucial for the downward breakthrough of bond yields. Before the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the probability of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts is low. The 10 - year treasury bond yield will oscillate within the range of 1.6% - 1.7%, and investors can actively deploy when it is near the upper limit of the range [2][18]. - This week, the 2 - year US Treasury yield dropped by about 15bp, and the 10 - year yield dropped by about 7 - 8bp. The US Treasury still has strong allocation attractiveness. It is recommended to appropriately shorten the portfolio duration. The US real - estate market shows a continuous weakening trend under the high - interest - rate environment. The consumer confidence index has rebounded, and the number of initial jobless claims has decreased, while the number of continued jobless claims has reached a new high since November 2021. The Fed will wait and see economic data before deciding on policy adjustments [3][20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - week Views - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yield in China**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond rose from 1.638% to 1.646%, an increase of 0.8bp. The yield was affected by multiple factors such as international events, capital market operations, and macro - economic data announcements during the week [1][13]. - **Analysis of the Second - quarter Meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee**: Compared with the first - quarter meeting, the assessment of the economic situation is more positive, and the attitude towards policy implementation is less urgent. The statement has changed from "choosing the opportunity to cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate" to "flexibly grasping the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation." Before the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the probability of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts is low [2][18]. - **US Treasury Yield and Related Data**: This week, the 2 - year US Treasury yield dropped by about 15bp, and the 10 - year yield dropped by about 7 - 8bp. The US real - estate market is weak, the consumer confidence index has rebounded, and the Fed will wait and see economic data before policy adjustment [3][20]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Aggregation - **Liquidity Tracking**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the central bank's open - market net investment was 10,672 billion yuan. The money - market interest rate and the issuance volume of interest - rate bonds have changed. The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds have also shown different trends [32]. - **Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking**: The total commercial - housing transaction area has increased. Steel prices have decreased, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices have generally increased. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, the inter - bank certificate of deposit interest rate, the Yu'E Bao yield, the vegetable price index, the RJ/CRB commodity price index, and the crude - oil price have all shown corresponding changes [55][57]. 3.3 One - week Review of Local Bonds - **Primary - market Issuance Overview**: From June 23 to June 29, 2025, 161 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with an issuance amount of 641.64 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 81.288 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 560.352 billion yuan. The issuance was mainly concentrated in 17 provinces and cities, with Shanghai, Hebei, and Beijing ranking in the top three in terms of issuance volume [69]. - **Secondary - market Overview**: This week, the stock of local bonds was 51.74 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 514.13 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.99%. The top three provinces with active trading were Shandong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan. The top three active trading maturities were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y. The maturity yields of local bonds generally increased [88]. - **Local - bond Issuance Plan for this Month**: No specific content provided. 3.4 One - week Review of the Credit - bond Market - **Primary - market Issuance Overview**: This week, 345 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 307.984 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 309.967 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 19.83 billion yuan. Among them, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 137.72 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 117.89 billion yuan [95]. - **Issuance Interest Rate**: The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds have changed to different extents this week [109]. - **Secondary - market Transaction Overview**: This week, the total credit - bond trading volume was 697.213 billion yuan. The trading volume of each type of bond varied by rating [110]. - **Maturity Yield**: The maturity yields of national development bank bonds, short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds have changed to different extents this week [112][114][115][117]. - **Credit Spread**: This week, the credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally narrowed, those of enterprise bonds generally narrowed, and those of urban investment bonds generally widened [118][121][126]. - **Grade Spread**: This week, the grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [131][134][138]. - **Trading Activity**: This week, the top five most actively traded bonds in each type are listed. The industrial industry had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, reaching 412.071 billion yuan [143].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the polyurethane sector, this week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 17,040 yuan/ton, 15,650 yuan/ton, and 11,225 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 170 yuan/ton, 120 yuan/ton, and 155 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits were 3,556 yuan/ton, 3,177 yuan/ton, and - 280 yuan/ton, with week - on - week decreases of 158 yuan/ton, 36 yuan/ton, and 69 yuan/ton [2]. - In the oil - gas - olefin sector, the average prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha this week were 1,172 yuan/ton, 4,189 yuan/ton, 470 yuan/ton, and 4,221 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 72 yuan/ton, 183 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 330 yuan/ton. The average price of polyethylene was 7,975 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of ethylene cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1,418 yuan/ton, 2,113 yuan/ton, and 100 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 93 yuan/ton, 89 yuan/ton, and 348 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 7,136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were - 38 yuan/ton, 1,752 yuan/ton, and - 80 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 147 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 308 yuan/ton [2]. - In the coal - chemical sector, the average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid this week were 2,214 yuan/ton, 1,802 yuan/ton, 3,960 yuan/ton, and 2,381 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 58 yuan/ton, - 11 yuan/ton, + 20 yuan/ton, and + 17 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits were 336 yuan/ton, 156 yuan/ton, - 214 yuan/ton, and 4 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 63 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, + 22 yuan/ton, and + 61 yuan/ton [2]. - The relevant listed companies in the chemical industry include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking** - The basic chemical index had a weekly increase of 3.1%, a monthly increase of 2.2%, a three - month decrease of 0.7%, an annual increase of 12.1%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.4% as of June 27, 2025 [8]. - Wanhua Chemical had a weekly increase of 0.4%, a monthly decrease of 2.4%, a three - month decrease of 20.5%, an annual decrease of 36.2%, and a year - to - date decrease of 24.2% [8]. - Baofeng Energy had a weekly decrease of 1.5%, a monthly increase of 0.2%, a three - month decrease of 5.3%, an annual increase of 0.2%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.9% [8]. - Satellite Chemical had a weekly increase of 7.2%, a monthly increase of 0.6%, a three - month decrease of 18.4%, an annual decrease of 3.0%, and a year - to - date decrease of 6.1% [8]. - Hualu Hengsheng had a weekly decrease of 0.6%, a monthly increase of 5.2%, a three - month decrease of 1.9%, an annual decrease of 18.3%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.5% [8]. - **Related Company Profit Tracking** - As of June 27, 2025, Wanhua Chemical's stock price was 53 yuan, with a total market value of 167.6 billion yuan. Its net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024A was 13.033 billion yuan, and the expected values for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 13.966 billion yuan, 16.864 billion yuan, and 19.233 billion yuan respectively. The PE values for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 12.9, 12.0, 9.9, and 8.7 respectively, and the PB value for 2025E was 1.7 [8]. - Baofeng Energy's stock price was 16 yuan, with a total market value of 119.2 billion yuan. Its net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024A was 6.338 billion yuan, and the expected values for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 12.360 billion yuan, 14.076 billion yuan, and 14.880 billion yuan respectively. The PE values for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 18.8, 9.6, 8.5, and 8.0 respectively, and the PB value for 2025E was 2.7 [8]. - Satellite Chemical's stock price was 17 yuan, with a total market value of 57.7 billion yuan. Its net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024A was 6.072 billion yuan, and the expected values for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 7.004 billion yuan, 9.103 billion yuan, and 11.075 billion yuan respectively. The PE values for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 9.5, 8.2, 6.3, and 5.2 respectively, and the PB value for 2025E was 1.9 [8]. - Hualu Hengsheng's stock price was 22 yuan, with a total market value of 46.1 billion yuan. Its net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024A was 3.903 billion yuan, and the expected values for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 4.265 billion yuan, 4.690 billion yuan, and 5.066 billion yuan respectively. The PE values for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 11.8, 10.8, 9.8, and 9.1 respectively, and the PB value for 2025E was 1.5 [8]. - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - The average price of pure MDI was 17,040 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 170 yuan/ton, and a seven - year quantile of 11%. Its gross profit was 3,556 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 158 yuan/ton, and a seven - year quantile of 34% [8]. - The average price of polymer MDI was 15,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan/ton, and a seven - year quantile of 32%. Its gross profit was 3,177 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/ton, and a seven - year quantile of 66% [8]. - The average price of TDI was 11,225 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 155 yuan/ton, and a seven - year quantile of 9%. Its gross profit was - 280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 69 yuan/ton, and a seven - year quantile of 23% [8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain** - **Raw Material Prices**: Ethane had an average price of 1172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 72 yuan/ton, and a ten - year quantile of 50%. Propane had an average price of 4189 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 183 yuan/ton, and a ten - year quantile of 63%. NYMEX natural gas had an average price of 1317 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 135 yuan/ton, and a ten - year quantile of 82%. Brent crude oil had an average price of 3576 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 428 yuan/ton, and a ten - year quantile of 62%. Naphtha had an average price of 4221 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 330 yuan/ton, and a ten - year quantile of 62%. Steam coal had an average price of 470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton, and a ten - year quantile of 40%. Methanol had an average price of 2711 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton, and a ten - year quantile of 71% [8]. - **Profit Comparison of Oil - Gas Routes**: For polyethylene production, the profit of ethane cracking was 1418 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 93 yuan/ton, a change of + 51 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year decrease of 467 yuan/ton. The profit of naphtha cracking was 100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 348 yuan/ton, a change of + 25 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year increase of 25 yuan/ton. The profit of MTO was - 548 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 32 yuan/ton, a change of - 151 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year decrease of 151 yuan/ton. The profit of CTO was 2113 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 89 yuan/ton, a change of + 912 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year increase of 298 yuan/ton. For polypropylene production, the profit of PDH was - 38 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 147 yuan/ton, a change of - 386 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year increase of 52 yuan/ton. The profit of naphtha cracking was - 80 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 308 yuan/ton, a change of - 221 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year increase of 481 yuan/ton. The profit of MTO was - 909 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton, a change of - 423 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year decrease of 737 yuan/ton. The profit of CTO was 1752 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton, a change of + 641 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year increase of 170 yuan/ton [8]. - **C2 and C3 Sectors and Coal - Chemical Industry Chain** - **C2 Sector**: The average price of ethylene was 6099 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 180 yuan/ton. The average price of HDPE was 7975 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The average price of ethylene glycol was 4492 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 82 yuan/ton. The average price of ethylene oxide was 6400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 80 yuan/ton. The average price of polyether macromonomer was 8200 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of ethanolamine was 5800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The average price of dimethyl carbonate was 3860 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton. The average price of styrene was 7830 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The average price of polystyrene was 8600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton [10]. - **C3 Sector**: The average price of propylene was 5690 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 230 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 7136 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The average price of acrylic acid was 6830 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 170 yuan/ton. The average price of butyl acrylate was 8190 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 190 yuan/ton. The average price of propylene oxide was 7744 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 168 yuan/ton [10]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain** - **Coal - Coke Products**: The average price of coking coal was 1038 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/ton. The average price of coke was 1081 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 26 yuan/ton, and its gross profit was - 47 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 22 yuan/ton [10]. - **Traditional Coal - Chemical Products**: The average price of synthetic ammonia was 2214 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 58 yuan/ton, and its gross profit was 336 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 63 yuan/ton. The average price of methanol was 2100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton, and its gross profit was 207 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The average price of urea was 1802 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton, and its gross profit was 156 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The average price of DMF was 3960 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton, and its gross profit was - 214 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton. The average price of acetic acid was 2381 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan/ton, and its gross profit was 4 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 61 yuan/ton [10]. - **New Materials**: The average price of DMC was 10800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan/ton, and its gross profit was - 2141 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 114 yuan/ton. The average price of oxalic acid was 2700 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of octanol was 7

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the weekly data of the large refining and chemical industry, including price, profit, inventory, and operating rate changes in different sectors such as refining, polyester, and chemicals, as well as the performance of relevant listed companies [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Price and Spread**: The domestic key large refining project spread this week was 2,673 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 377 yuan/ton (16%); the foreign key large refining project spread was 1,241 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 258 yuan/ton (26%). The average price of PX this week was 875.1 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.9 dollars/ton, and the spread to crude oil was 369.6 dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41.0 dollars/ton [2]. - **Polyester Sector**: POY/FDY/DTY industry average prices were 7,193/7,496/8,446 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 146/179/186 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits were 74/10/44 yuan/ton, with week - on - week increases of 88/109/114 yuan/ton. The inventory was 17.2/18.9/25.3 days, with week - on - week changes of +0.9/ - 0.9/ - 0.3 days. The filament operating rate was 90.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 pct. The downstream loom operating rate was 59.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7 pct [2]. - **Refining Sector**: Domestic gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices rose this week, while in the US, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices fell [2]. - **Chemical Sector**: The PX operating rate was 86.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 pct [2]. - **Related Listed Companies**: Private large refining and chemical & polyester filament companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin凤鸣 [2]. - **Stock Performance**: The oil and petrochemical index on June 27, 2025, showed a - 2.1% change in the past week, 1.5% in the past month, - 1.1% in the past three months, - 5.9% in the past year, and - 4.9% since the beginning of 2025. Among the listed companies, Rongsheng Petrochemical had a 2.5% increase in the past week, while Tongkun Co., Ltd. had a - 33.3% change in the past year [8]. - **Earnings Forecast**: For example, Hengli Petrochemical's expected net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025 is 8.024 billion yuan, with a PE of 12.5 in 2025E [8]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends**: It may involve the trends of the big refining index, domestic and foreign big refining project spreads, and the changes in the performance of six private big refining companies [11][15][20]. - **2.2 Polyester Sector**: Covers various aspects such as the prices and spreads of crude oil, PX, PTA, and MEG; the operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG; the prices and profits of POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester staple fiber; the inventory and operating rates of polyester filament and downstream looms [23][33][55]. - **2.3 Refining Sector**: Includes the prices and spreads of domestic, US, European, and Singaporean refined oil products (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) relative to crude oil [84][99][122]. - **2.4 Chemical Sector**: Focuses on the prices and spreads of various chemical products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, and styrene relative to crude oil [139][140][148].

Core Conclusions - The report suggests a strong investment focus on automotive intelligence, viewing it as a transformative revolution in transportation, with three key phases: helping automakers sell cars, enabling software monetization through Robotaxi, and the global rise of domestic brands [2] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal point for automotive intelligence, with urban NOA (Level 3 intelligence) becoming a top consideration for consumers when purchasing vehicles. The report tracks the penetration rate of L3 intelligence from 10% in 2025 to over 80% by 2027 [2][4] - The automotive intelligence landscape is characterized by a competitive elimination model, where companies will be categorized into three types: B-end Robotaxi operators, C-end personalized brands, and high-end vehicle manufacturers. Component suppliers will be divided into modular and single-category suppliers [2] Consumer Willingness to Pay for Intelligence - As of June, the urban NOA penetration rate reached 22.0%, marking the first time it surpassed 20%. The AITO M8 features urban NCA as standard across all models, with increasing deliveries. The overall urban NOA penetration rate for Li Auto's 2025 models is 54.9%, up 10.6 percentage points from the previous month, also surpassing 50% for the first time [3][9] - Key new models include the Xiaopeng G7 Ultra, which debuted with the Turing AI chip, providing an industry-first L3-level computing platform with effective computing power exceeding 2200 TOPS. The Xiaomi YU7 features the NVIDIA AGX Thor chip with 700 TOPS, significantly enhancing its performance metrics [3][9] Investment Recommendations for 2025 - Continued optimism for intelligent vehicles, with a focus on new vehicle cycles and monthly sales tracking. The report favors Hong Kong-listed companies (e.g., Xiaopeng Motors, Li Auto, Xiaomi Group) over A-share companies (e.g., BYD, SAIC Group, Seres) [2] - Positive outlook for incremental intelligent components, including AI chips (e.g., Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Intelligence), domain controllers (e.g., Desay SV, Huayang Group), steer-by-wire chassis (e.g., Bertel, Nexperia), and automotive electronics (e.g., Baolong Technology, Jingwei Hirain) [2] Market Size and Projections - The report outlines a significant growth trajectory for the Robotaxi market, projecting a domestic market size of 0 to 30 billion yuan by 2025-2027, with annual sales expected to reach 1.5 million units by 2030 [10][11] - The core task of automotive intelligence from 2025 to 2027 is to drive the penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles (NEVs) to between 50% and 80% [11] Supply Chain Tracking - The report provides a detailed breakdown of the automotive intelligence supply chain, categorizing key hardware and software companies involved in perception, decision-making, and execution [6] - Notable companies in the hardware segment include Sunyu Optical Technology, Hesai Technology, and NVIDIA, while software companies include WeRide and Pony.ai [6] Brand Performance in Urban NOA - Xiaopeng's overall urban NOA penetration rate is 61.3%, with a 7.4 percentage point increase, driven by the G6/G9 models. AITO's penetration rate is 95.0%, with a 4.1 percentage point increase due to the M8 model's performance [17] - Li Auto's urban NOA penetration rate is 54.9%, marking a significant increase, while Wey's penetration rate stands at 95.8%, reflecting strong demand for intelligent driving features [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a reversal in the challenges faced by lithium battery equipment and the emergence of new solid-state battery technologies as significant investment opportunities [1] - The forklift industry is experiencing a recovery in domestic demand, with opportunities arising from the trend towards unmanned forklifts [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of solid-state battery equipment suppliers and the potential for domestic equipment manufacturers to benefit from the industrialization of solid-state batteries [2][28] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Equipment - QuantumScape's advanced Cobra membrane technology has been successfully integrated into battery production lines, marking a significant step towards the industrialization of solid-state batteries [2] - The Cobra process improves production efficiency, reducing physical space requirements and increasing thermal treatment speed by approximately 25 times compared to previous methods [2] - Investment recommendations focus on solid-state battery equipment suppliers such as XianDao Intelligent, laser welding equipment manufacturers like LianYing Laser, and formation and capacity equipment providers like HangKe Technology [2] Forklift Industry - In May, forklift sales reached 123,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with domestic sales growing by 9% and exports by 17% [3] - The report suggests that leading companies in the forklift sector, such as Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group, are well-positioned for strong performance in Q2 due to increased demand and strategic partnerships [3] - The integration of AI in logistics is expected to drive further innovation in the forklift industry, particularly in automation and smart logistics solutions [3] Robotics Industry - The report discusses the acceleration of the robotics industry, with companies like ShouCheng Holdings establishing funds to support robotics ventures and enhance collaboration within the ecosystem [4] - New product launches from Huachen Equipment, including precision grinding machines, are expected to improve efficiency and meet national demand for high-precision manufacturing [4][5] - Investment recommendations include companies involved in robotics applications across various sectors, emphasizing the importance of both equipment and application development [5] Engineering Machinery - The report notes that China's engineering machinery exports are increasingly focused on the "Belt and Road" initiative, with significant growth in regions like Southeast Asia and Africa [36] - Major players such as Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG are expanding their global presence, reducing reliance on the U.S. market, which has seen declining export figures [36] - The report suggests that the long-term strategy for Chinese manufacturers involves enhancing their global competitiveness through strategic partnerships and localized production [36] Oil and Gas Equipment - The oil service equipment market is projected to grow significantly, particularly in the Middle East, where Chinese companies are beginning to establish a foothold [18][20] - Companies like Jereh and Neway are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential in the oil service sector, driven by increasing demand for high-end equipment [19][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and strategic investments in maintaining competitive advantages in the oil and gas equipment market [40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the financial products sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a "volatile upward" trend, with a focus on investment timing [5][18]. - The macro model for the Wande All A Index turned positive on June 24, indicating a potential turning point for upward movement, although fluctuations were noted later in the week [18]. - The risk level for the Wande All A Index is currently at 82.99, suggesting limited upward space despite a favorable trend [18]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview (June 23-27, 2025) - Major broad-based indices showed varied performance, with the top three being Wande Micro-Pan Daily Equal Weight Index (6.94%), North Certificate 50 (6.84%), and ChiNext Index (5.69%) [10]. - The top three style indices were Growth (CITIC) (5.21%), Giant Small Cap (4.25%), and Small Cap Growth (4.13%) [12]. - The top three Shenwan first-level industry indices were Computer (7.70%), National Defense and Military Industry (6.90%), and Non-bank Financials (6.66%) [15]. A-share Market Outlook (June 30 - July 4, 2025) - The report anticipates a volatile upward market, with a recommendation for balanced ETF allocation [5][18]. - The growth style is favored, particularly in sectors like communication, computer, and electronics, with communication showing the highest trend risk [18]. - The report suggests that the banking sector may rebound after the end of June, influenced by mid-year reporting [20]. Fund Allocation Recommendations - The report advises a balanced ETF allocation strategy, considering the current market conditions and expected volatility [5][18].

Group 1 - The report identifies three recent market phenomena: the Shanghai Composite Index's three consecutive days of gains reaching a new high, cautious sentiment among institutional investors, and a rapid reversal in investor sentiment leading to a more optimistic outlook after initial profit-taking [1][2][3]. - The core explanation for the recent market movements is attributed to a return to volatility trading, with the annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index dropping to 18.2%, the lowest in nearly a decade, which was largely overlooked by investors [2][4]. - Low volatility reflects a balance of power between bulls and bears, indicating that investors have digested market factors sufficiently, leading to a cautious sentiment among investors [3][4]. Group 2 - The report suggests that a new low in volatility does not guarantee market direction, as future volatility is expected to rise, influenced by whether factors lead to a "Risk-On" or "Risk-Off" environment [4][10]. - Historical patterns show that when volatility falls below 30%, it often leads to a rebound, with past instances resulting in either upward trends or significant corrections depending on the prevailing market conditions [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that the market's direction ultimately depends on key variables that disrupt the current balance of power, with recent positive catalysts including reduced Middle East risks and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [5][10]. Group 3 - Different types of funds approach volatility trading differently, with quantitative funds utilizing various tools to trade volatility directly, while discretionary funds adjust positions based on directional judgments [8][9]. - The report highlights the importance of distinguishing between short, medium, and long-term trading logic, noting that short-term fluctuations are often misattributed to medium-term fundamentals, overlooking the significance of mean reversion trading [9][10]. - The report concludes that understanding volatility and its implications for trading strategies remains insufficient, with a focus on growth sectors such as AI, cultural media, and innovative pharmaceuticals being recommended for investment [10].