证券研究报告·行业点评报告·计算机 计算机行业点评报告 无人物流车：迎来商业化落地 2025 年 06 月 02 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 相关研究 《数字中国 2025 强调高质量数据集》 2025-05-18 《算力租赁 2025 年 Q1 率先体现业 绩，海外大厂资本开支持续乐观》 2025-05-05 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 证券分析师 王紫敬 执业证书：S0600521080005 021-60199781 wangzj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -16% -8% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% 48% 56% 2024/6/3 2024/10/1 2025/1/29 2025/5/29 计算机 沪深300 ◼ 各地陆续开放路权，支持无人驾驶运营测试。2024 年 7 月，工业和信息 化部、公安部、自然资源部、住房和城乡建设部、交通运输部等五部门 联合发布《关于公布智能网联汽车"车路云一体化"应用试点城市名单 的通知》，北京、上海、重庆、鄂尔多斯等 20 个城市（联合体）上榜。 各试点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current coal prices are primarily influenced by high inventory levels and limited upward momentum due to the stable increase in hydropower during the flood season. However, as the peak summer demand period approaches, there is potential for coal prices to rise further [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the incremental insurance funds and the positive growth in premium income, which is increasingly concentrated among leading insurance companies. The ongoing scarcity of fixed-income assets and the high levels of dividend assets suggest a shift towards equity allocation, particularly favoring resource stocks [2][35] - The report recommends focusing on elastic targets in the thermal coal sector, specifically highlighting low-valuation stocks such as Haohua Energy and suggesting attention to Guanghui Energy [2][35] Summary by Sections Current Market Review - From May 26 to May 30, the average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.786 million tons, an increase of 28,000 tons week-on-week, representing a growth of 1.59%. The average daily outflow was 2.043 million tons, up by 237,100 tons, a rise of 13.13%. The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 30.572 million tons, down by 1.534 million tons, a decline of 4.78% [1][25][30] Price Trends - As of May 30, the price of thermal coal at the Dazhou South Suburb was 506 CNY/ton, up by 32 CNY/ton. The price at Inner Mongolia Chifeng remained stable at 380 CNY/ton, while the price at Yanzhou increased by 140 CNY/ton to 850 CNY/ton. The port price for thermal coal remained stable at 611 CNY/ton [16][18] - The thermal coal price index in the Bohai Rim remained unchanged at 669 CNY/ton, while the Qinhuangdao port price index also held steady at 665 CNY/ton [18] Inventory and Shipping - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim increased to 82, up by 20 vessels, a rise of 33.18%. The coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 30.572 million tons, down by 1.534 million tons, a decline of 4.78% [30][31] Shipping Costs - The average shipping cost on domestic routes increased by 0.24 CNY/ton to 35.83 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 0.68% [32]

◼ 海外政治：对等关税法律依据遭挑战，但未来贸易局势依旧面临较大的 不确定性。美东时间 5 月 28 日，美国国际贸易法院（United States Court of International Trade , CIT）做出裁决，禁止特朗普于 4 月 2 日"解放 日"对全球征收对等关税的行政命令。具体来看，法院认为特朗普援引 《国际紧急经济权利法》（IEEPA）征收对等关税的行为超出了法律本身 的授权范围：一方面，美国长期处于贸易赤字状态，因此特朗普以贸易 逆差为由并不符合 IEEPA 条款中"异常且特殊的威胁（unusual and extraordinary threat）"的启用条件；另一方面，美国宪法规定国会拥有 征收关税的权利，而特朗普在全球范围内大规模征收关税并完全绕开国 会授权的行为从一定程度上违反了宪法中对立法和行政的权利范围划 分。随后特朗普对该判决结果迅速上诉，巡回法院受理后发布了暂缓执 行令（即允许特朗普暂时继续征收对等关税），并要求原告（CIT）于 6 月 5 日，被告（特朗普政府）于 6 月 9 日前进一步提供材料以决定是否 对 CIT 的判决结果进行长期暂缓直至巡回法庭对特朗普 ...

证券研究报告·行业研究·电力设备与新能源行业 关税缓和需求小幅向上，固态新技术如火如荼 —— 电动车行业2025年5月策略 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 电动车首席证券分析师 ：阮巧燕 执业证书编号：S0600517120002 联系邮箱：ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2025年06月1日 摘要 2 3 电动车：4月国内销量同比增速亮眼，欧洲销量开始恢复 4 国内：25年4月销123万辆，同增44%，渗透率47.3% ◆ 国内4月销量亮眼，车企价格战继续，25年预期30%增长。25年4月新能源车销123万辆，同增44%，淡季不淡 ，同环比+44%/-0.9%，渗透率47.3%，同环比+11.3pct/+4.9pct；1-4月新能源车销量430万辆，同增46%， 渗透率42.7%，同增10pct。4月出口20.0万辆，同增76% 。25年"以旧换新"政策落地，补贴支持范围扩大， 叠加高阶辅助驾驶下沉，电动车价格战，电动化进一步提速，25年销量预期1670万辆，同增30%。 ◆ ...

Market Overview - The total trading volume of the A-share market last week was 1.09 trillion, a decrease of 79.4 billion compared to the previous week[9] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a slight decline of 0.03% last week[12] Market Style Performance - Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, with the ChiNext Index down 1.40% and the Shanghai 50 Index down 1.22%[12] - The private equity heavy positions index increased by 0.61%, marking the best performance among various participant indices[21] Sector Performance - The strongest sectors included stablecoins and autonomous logistics, while the weakest sectors were not specified in the provided data[36] - The report highlighted a potential $50 billion business development transaction by Shiyou Group, indicating strong interest in innovative pharmaceuticals[36] Investment Strategy Outlook - The focus for 2025 will be on three main strategies: promoting domestic circulation, technological self-reliance, and expanding openness[41] - Key areas of investment include consumer electronics, industrial automation, and AI applications, with a particular emphasis on new energy technologies[41] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may not meet expectations, leading to increased market uncertainty[44] - Geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies could negatively impact the A-share market[44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to benefit significantly from domestic and international expansion, with leading companies like Xian Dao Intelligent projected to achieve a transaction scale of approximately 8.5 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - The excavator market is showing signs of recovery, with a shift in demand towards non-excavator machinery, indicating a new upward trend in the engineering machinery sector [3] - Forklift sales are experiencing a mixed performance, with domestic sales declining slightly while exports are growing, driven by increased lithium battery penetration [4] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Equipment - Recent IPO by CATL raised 35.3 billion HKD, with 90% of funds allocated for the construction of a factory in Hungary, expected to reach a total capacity of 72 GWh by 2027 [1] - Xian Dao Intelligent is highlighted as a key beneficiary, with a significant improvement in cash flow and gross margin expected due to the expansion of overseas business [1] Excavators and Engineering Machinery - Excavator sales are on the rise, with a notable recovery expected in the second half of 2024, while demand for road machinery is also increasing [3] - Sales figures for April 2025 show significant year-on-year growth for road machinery, indicating a positive trend in the engineering machinery sector [3] Forklifts - April forklift sales reached 130,000 units, with exports growing by 18% while domestic sales saw a slight decline of 1% [4] - The report anticipates that domestic demand will stabilize with potential government stimulus measures and ongoing improvements in export channels [4] General Machinery - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas market expansion for Chinese machinery manufacturers, particularly in regions with high demand for construction equipment [20][22] - Companies like Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG are noted for their strategic global expansion efforts, which are expected to mitigate tariff impacts and enhance market share [24]

Market Overview - The total trading volume of the A-share market last week was 1.09 trillion, a decrease of 79.4 billion compared to the previous week[9] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a slight decline of 0.03% last week[12] Market Style Performance - Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, with the ChiNext Index down 1.40% and the Shanghai 50 Index down 1.22%[12] - The private equity heavy positions index increased by 0.61%, marking the best performance among various participant indices[21] Sector Performance - The strongest sectors included stablecoins and autonomous logistics, with significant developments in the regulatory framework and technology applications[36] - The report highlighted a potential $5 billion business development transaction by Shiyou Group, indicating growth in the innovative drug sector[36] Market Sentiment - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit increased to around 50 last Friday, indicating a slight recovery in market sentiment[26] - The overall A-share market saw a slight increase of 0.14% last week, with 3,794 stocks rising on the first day of the week[23] Risk Factors - The report warns of potential risks including slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery and geopolitical uncertainties that could impact market stability[44] - Industry-specific uncertainties such as supply-demand fluctuations and policy changes may affect company performance[44] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic circulation and technological self-reliance in the context of external uncertainties, suggesting a focus on consumer electronics and industrial automation[41] - Upcoming events include the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, which may influence market dynamics[40]

Group 1 - The report suggests that June may mark the beginning of a new "East Rising, West Falling" trading cycle, driven by a weakening US dollar, which is expected to decline further below 100 points, benefiting non-US assets including the Chinese market [1][2] - The technology growth sector is identified as a key theme within the "East Rising, West Falling" trading strategy, with growth stocks expected to outperform during a weak dollar period, supported by favorable liquidity conditions [2][3] - The report highlights that the technology sector will experience a series of significant events in June, including major product launches and conferences, which are anticipated to catalyze market activity [3][4] Group 2 - Specific themes and industry trends to watch in June include AI applications (such as AI smartphones and glasses), humanoid robots, controllable nuclear fusion, deep-sea technology, and autonomous driving initiatives [7][6] - The report notes that the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector's trading volume has decreased to 27.3% of total A-share trading, indicating a potential opportunity for investment as the sector's valuation becomes more attractive [2][14] - The upcoming events in June, such as the WWDC and various AI and robotics conferences, are expected to provide significant market catalysts, enhancing the visibility and potential of the technology growth sector [3][4][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The long - end of US Treasury yields may fluctuate between 4.0 - 4.5%. Although the short - term decline in US Treasury yields and the support for the US dollar may be due to the obstruction of Trump's tariff policy in domestic legislation and the short - term reallocation of global assets, the upward drive for US Treasuries in the medium term remains [1][38]. - Domestic equity trading was relatively cold before the Dragon Boat Festival. The hot sectors such as chemicals, controlled nuclear fusion, new consumption, and new reorganizations declined, pressuring market sentiment. In the convertible bond market, the equal - weighted index was weaker than the weighted index and the double - low index. The large - cap and high - price styles were superior [1][39]. - It is recommended to actively layout medium - and low - priced convertible bond targets with small business uncertainties, sufficient disposable cash, and positive attitudes towards equity investment and mergers and acquisitions. Also, investors are advised to seize the opportunity to subscribe for high - quality pan - technology incremental targets among the unissued ones [1][39]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1 Equity Market - From May 26th to May 30th, the equity market declined overall. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3347.49 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.91% to 10040.63 points, the ChiNext Index fell 1.40% to 1993.19 points, and the CSI 300 fell 1.08% to 3840.23 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 816.77 billion yuan to 10698.79 billion yuan, a weekly decline of 7.09% [6][9]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 17 industries rose, with 3 industries rising more than 2%. Environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and computer led the gains, while the automobile, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, food and beverage, and household appliances sectors led the losses [13]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Market - From May 26th to May 30th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.23%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 17 industries rose, with 1 industry rising more than 2%. Media, beauty care, national defense and military industry, computer, and food and beverage led the gains, while communication, household appliances, automobile, social services, and machinery equipment led the losses [16]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 555.18 billion yuan, a significant increase of 5.13 billion yuan, a 0.93% increase. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume had an average trading volume of 105.07 billion yuan, with the first - ranked one reaching 227.37 billion yuan. About 48.52% of individual convertible bonds rose, about 32.49% had a gain between 0 - 1%, and 8.02% had a gain of more than 2% [16]. - The overall market conversion premium rate continued to rise, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 47.04%, an increase of 1.60 pcts compared to last week. In terms of price ranges, except for the 90 - yuan - below and 100 - 110 - yuan price ranges, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other price ranges narrowed. In terms of parity ranges, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in all parity ranges narrowed [21]. - The parity of 12 industries increased, with 3 industries having an increase of more than 2%. Media, environmental protection, food and beverage, national defense and military industry, and beauty care led the increase, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances, social services, automobile, and electronics led the decline [32]. 1.3 Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - The weekly weighted average increase of the convertible bond market was positive, while the median was negative. The weekly weighted average increase and median of the underlying stock market were both positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly increase. The trading volume of the convertible bond market increased by 0.93% week - on - week, while that of the underlying stock market decreased by 3.56% [33]. - About 47.55% of convertible bonds rose, and about 56.86% of underlying stocks rose. About 41.88% of convertible bonds had a larger increase than the underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [33]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategies - Continue to adhere to the view that the long - end of US Treasury yields may fluctuate between 4.0 - 4.5% [1][38]. - Actively layout medium - and low - priced convertible bond targets with small business uncertainties, sufficient disposable cash, and positive attitudes towards equity investment and mergers and acquisitions. Seize the opportunity to subscribe for high - quality pan - technology incremental targets among the unissued ones, such as Maolai Optics, Kechuan Technology, Shenyu Co., Ltd., and Meili Technology [1][39]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - and low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for conversion parity premium rate repair next week are Ying 19 Convertible Bond, Haoke Convertible Bond, Hailiang Convertible Bond, Pufa Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Hexing Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond 2, Zhonghuan Convertible Bond 2, and Meijin Convertible Bond [1][39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the weekly price and profit data of various chemical products, including polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, and coal - chemical sectors, as well as the performance of related listed companies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 基础化工周度数据简报 - **Related Company Performance** - **Stock Price Fluctuations**: The basic chemical index decreased by 0.7% in the past week, increased by 1.7% in the past month, decreased by 1.2% in the past three months, and increased by 0.3% in the past year. Among related companies, Wanhua Chemical decreased by 2.2% in the past week, Baofeng Energy decreased by 2.4%, Satellite Chemical decreased by 5.4%, and Hualu Hengsheng increased by 1.8% [8]. - **Profit Tracking**: The report provides the stock price, total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of related companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng [8]. - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI this week were 17,900 yuan/ton, 16,060 yuan/ton, and 12,513 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of +20 yuan/ton, - 170 yuan/ton, and +395 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 4,623 yuan/ton, 3,809 yuan/ton, and 1,202 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of +185 yuan/ton, - 51 yuan/ton, and +100 yuan/ton [8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain** - **Raw Material Prices**: The average prices of ethane, propane,动力煤, and naphtha this week were 1,243 yuan/ton, 4,308 yuan/ton, 525 yuan/ton, and 4,075 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 139 yuan/ton, +6 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and - 9 yuan/ton [2][8]. - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average price of polyethylene was 7,867 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 78 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of ethylene cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1,237 yuan/ton, 1,897 yuan/ton, and 171 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of +56 yuan/ton, - 48 yuan/ton, and - 31 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 7,180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were - 111 yuan/ton, 1,636 yuan/ton, and 93 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 13 yuan/ton, - 13 yuan/ton, and +3 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid this week were 2,347 yuan/ton, 1,862 yuan/ton, 4,025 yuan/ton, and 2,450 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of +13 yuan/ton, - 13 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and +19 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 456 yuan/ton, 184 yuan/ton, - 240 yuan/ton, and 176 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of +22 yuan/ton, - 9 yuan/ton, +24 yuan/ton, and +76 yuan/ton [2]. 1.2 基础化工周报 - **2.1 基础化工指数走势** - No specific content is provided in the given text, only the title is mentioned. - **2.2 聚氨酯板块** - The report shows the price and profit trends of pure benzene, pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI [17][18]. - **2.3 油煤气烯烃板块** - It presents the price trends of raw materials such as MB ethane, NYMEX natural gas, East China propane, Brent crude oil, domestic动力煤, and naphtha, as well as the profitability of different production processes for polyethylene and polypropylene [26][30][32]. - **2.4 煤化工板块** - The report shows the price and profit trends of coal - coking products (such as coking coal and coke), traditional coal - chemical products (such as synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid), and new materials (such as DMC, oxalic acid, octanol, adipic acid, caprolactam, and PA6) [43][47][54].