证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 先导智能（300450） 海内外扩产共振，锂电设备龙头拐点已至 2025 年 05 月 28 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 16,628 | 11,855 | 13,200 | 17,000 | 20,100 | | 同比（%） | 19.35 | (28.71) | 11.34 | 28.79 | 18.24 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,774.57 | 286.10 | 1,056.93 | 1,702.00 | 2,227.97 | | 同比（%） | (23.45) | (83.88) | 269.42 | 61.03 | 30.90 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.13 | 0.18 | 0.67 | 1.09 | 1.42 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 18.31 | 113.59 | 30.75 | 19.09 | ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-05-28 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [宏观量化经济指数周报 Table_MacroStrategy] 20250525：存款"降息"或加剧银行负债端压力 若 MLF 连续加量投放，对冲"负债荒"压力，那么同业存单利率的上行 空间或有限。 海外周报 20250525：流动性与财政可持续性担忧推动 10 年期美债利率 上破 4.5% 核心观点：本周美日长债拍卖结果显示需求疲软，对美债流动性和美国财 政状况可持续性的担忧令市场一度遭遇"股债汇"三杀，10 年期美债利 率上至 4.51%，美元指数再度下破 100，美股大跌；黄金在特朗普威胁对 欧盟加征 50%关税的推动下大涨 4.8%。在中美超预期的关税谈判结果出 炉后，本周海外分析师集体上修全年美国 GDP 增长预期，下修 CPI 通胀 预期，但维持美联储 Q3 首次降息，全年降息 2 次的预期不变。向前看， 特朗普《大美丽法案》本周已于众议院获得通过，后续在参议院通过的阻 力预计较小，而法案中的减税与提高债务上限相关条款或进一步加剧市 场对美国财政状况的担忧程度。 风险提示：特朗普政策超预期； ...

证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20250527 商务部：支持符合条件的经开区上市融资 2025 年 05 月 27 日 风险提示：个股盈利不及预期，行业竞争加剧，贸易摩擦加剧，政策不及 预期等。 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 薛路熹 执业证书：S0600123070027 xuelx@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《中办、国办印发《关于完善中国特 色现代企业制度的意见》》 2025-05-26 《北证 A 股成交小幅回缩，把握中长 期成长板块布局》 2025-05-25 东吴证券研究所 1/8 内容目录 | 1. 资本市场新闻 | | --- | | 2. 行业新闻 | | 2.1. 北交所板块表现 | | 2.2. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's core business performance exceeded expectations, with a strong focus on AI investments [1][19] - For FY2025Q4, total revenue reached RMB 236.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, while Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 29.85 billion, up 22.2% year-on-year [12][21] - The report anticipates continued recovery in EBITA margins, with Non-GAAP net profit forecasts adjusted for FY2026 and FY2027 [35] Revenue Performance - The revenue from Taobao and Tmall increased by 8.7% to RMB 1013.69 billion, with customer management revenue growing by 11.8% to RMB 710.8 billion [19][17] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew significantly, driven by strong demand for AI-related services, while some core businesses underperformed [21][29] - The international digital commerce segment saw a 22.3% increase in revenue, primarily due to strong cross-border business performance [22] Profitability and Margin Analysis - The adjusted EBITA margin for Taobao and Tmall was 40.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.2% [19] - The report projects Non-GAAP net profits of RMB 171.16 billion for FY2026 and RMB 188.58 billion for FY2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 12 and 11 times [35] AI and Technology Investments - The company is focusing on leveraging AI technology to enhance user experience and drive business efficiency [20][30] - AI-related product revenue has shown triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters, indicating strong market adoption [29] Future Outlook - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the expected growth in GMV and accelerated monetization processes, alongside ongoing share buybacks and dividends [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company's core business performance exceeded expectations, with a strong focus on AI investments [1][19] - Revenue for FY2025Q4 reached RMB 236.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, slightly below Bloomberg consensus expectations [12] - Non-GAAP net profit for the same quarter was RMB 29.85 billion, up 22.2% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg consensus [12] Revenue Performance - The revenue breakdown for FY2025Q4 shows significant growth in various segments: - Taobao and Tmall business revenue increased by 8.7% to RMB 101.37 billion [17] - International digital commerce revenue grew by 22.3% to RMB 33.58 billion, driven by strong cross-border business performance [22] - Local life services revenue rose by 10.3% to RMB 16.13 billion, aided by order growth from Gaode and Ele.me [25] - Alibaba Cloud revenue increased by 17.7% to RMB 30.13 billion, benefiting from strong AI-related demand [29] - The entertainment segment (Big Entertainment) reported revenue of RMB 5.55 billion, a 12% increase [30] Profitability and Margin Analysis - The adjusted EBITA margin for Taobao and Tmall was 40.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.2% due to increased investments in user experience and AI technology [19] - The overall EBITA margin is expected to remain in a recovery phase, with adjustments made to future Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 [35] Future Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 to RMB 171.16 billion and RMB 188.58 billion, respectively, with an expected Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 210.31 billion for FY2028 [35] - Corresponding P/E ratios for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are projected at 12, 11, and 10 times [35] Market Positioning - The company is positioned favorably compared to peers, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 16.09 for FY2025, indicating it is relatively cheaper than similar companies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The "CMG World Robot Competition - Mecha Fighting Arena" concluded on May 25, showcasing the advancements in humanoid robotics, particularly the Yushu G1 robot's combat capabilities [1][14]. - The Yushu G1 demonstrated exceptional motion control, successfully executing complex fighting maneuvers such as side kicks, knee strikes, and combination punches, highlighting its high level of anthropomorphism and fluidity in movement [1][16]. - The humanoid robot's balance and recovery abilities were notably enhanced, allowing it to maintain an upright posture after being struck and to smoothly transition from a fallen position back to standing [2][20]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - The "CMG World Robot Competition" featured four teams competing with the Yushu G1 robots, which were controlled via manual, voice, and motion-sensing methods [1][14]. Motion Control Capabilities - The Yushu G1 exhibited advanced motion control, capable of performing various high-difficulty combat actions, with all movements executed through remote control based on pre-trained skills [1][16]. Software Development - The robot's skill acquisition involved two pre-training methods: real data from professional fighters and video data for imitation learning, enhancing its combat skills [3][25]. - The robot's perception system quickly locates opponents and generates executable strategies based on learned training, showcasing significant advancements in its motion control model [29]. Hardware Performance - The Yushu G1 is equipped with high-performance motors and lightweight materials, which enhance its agility and movement capabilities [4][32][33]. - The robot's self-developed joint motors provide excellent output capabilities, with a maximum torque of 120 N·m at critical joints, significantly improving its performance [32]. Industry Outlook - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate its commercialization, with Yushu Technology projected to achieve a shipment of over 1,000 units by 2025 [5][35]. - The current development pace of hardware and motion control is outpacing that of the large model (brain) aspect, indicating a need for further advancements in generalization capabilities for broader task execution [35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Zhongda Lide, Changsheng Bearing, Aobi Zhongguang, and Huarui Precision, while suggesting attention to Shoucheng Holdings, Wolong Electric Drive, Lingyun Light, and Hanwei Technology [6][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - The company has raised its revenue guidance and shareholder returns, reflecting strong growth prospects and operational performance [7]. - The retail business has shown significant growth, leading to an upward revision of the annual revenue growth forecast from 25% to a range of 25% to 30% [7]. - The company aims to open 500 new stores in 2025, supporting its expansion strategy [7]. - The earnings forecast has been adjusted upwards, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 1.63 billion, 2.03 billion, and 2.46 billion RMB respectively [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.67 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 106.19% [1]. - Net profit for 2023 is expected to be 737.14 million RMB, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 651.42% [1]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 1.78 RMB, with a projected P/E ratio of 43.78 [1]. - The company’s overall occupancy rate (OCC) for Q1 was 70.2%, with an average daily rate (ADR) of 418 RMB [7]. - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) for the retail business in Q1 reached 845 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 70.9% [7].

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·汽车零部件 继峰股份（603997） 系列深度报告（三）：海外拐点临近，座椅加 速放量 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 21,571 | 22,255 | 24,303 | 28,967 | 31,716 | | 同比（%） | 20.06 | 3.17 | 9.20 | 19.19 | 9.49 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 203.88 | (566.80) | 646.47 | 1,096.72 | 1,383.64 | | 同比（%） | 114.38 | (378.01) | 214.06 | 69.65 | 26.16 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.16 | (0.45) | 0.51 | 0.87 | 1.09 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 85.95 | - | 27.10 | 15.98 | 12.66 | [Table_Ta ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [1]. Core Insights - The company has raised its revenue guidance for 2025, expecting a year-on-year growth of 25% to 30%, up from the previous estimate of 25% [7]. - The retail business has shown significant growth, with a gross merchandise volume (GMV) of 845 million yuan in Q1, representing a year-on-year increase of 70.9% [7]. - The company plans to maintain its target of opening 500 new stores in 2025, with a total of 1,727 hotels as of the end of Q1, reflecting a 33% year-on-year increase [7]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 1.63 billion, 2.03 billion, and 2.46 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 106.19% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 737.14 million yuan, showing a substantial increase of 651.42% year-on-year [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 1.78 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 43.78 [1]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 9.66 billion yuan by 2025, with a total liability of 5.18 billion yuan [8].

证券研究报告·海外策略·美港股市场 美港股市场周报 250526 [Table_Main] 三大美股指数周度下跌超 2%，特朗普称 6 月 1 日起将对欧盟征收 50%关税 投资要点： ◼ 过去一周美股板块及个股热点事件一览：1）特朗普：对不在美国生产 的手机制造商征收 25%的关税。据财联社，特朗普表示，对不在美国生 产的手机制造商征收 25%的关税。特朗普警告称若三星产品非美国制 造，将征收 25%关税。若苹果、三星在美国建厂，将免征关税。特朗普 称将在六月底前对苹果和三星征收关税。2）美国拟向雪佛龙发放委内 瑞拉最低限度维护许可。据知情人士透露，特朗普政府正准备向雪佛龙 公司发放一份用途严格受限的许可证，允许这家石油生产商在委内瑞拉 开展必要业务的最低限度维护工作。3）甲骨文将砸 400 亿美元采购英 伟达芯片，为"星际之门"数据中心"输血"。英国《金融时报》周五消 息称，甲骨文公司将斥资约 400 亿美元采购英伟达高性能芯片，为 OpenAI 新建的美国数据中心提供算力支持。4）传 Wolfspeed 数周内申 请破产。周三，wolfspeed 开盘暴跌 66%，一度触发临时停牌。消息面 上，据华尔街 ...