Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Hengyin Technology (603106) for the first time [1]. Core Views - Hengyin Technology is a leader in banking intelligent terminals and is continuously expanding its blockchain capabilities to empower digital currency [1]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth recovery starting in 2024, with significant contributions from overseas markets and the digital renminbi [8][20]. - The strategic focus includes transitioning from hardware provider to software and service provider, enhancing its international presence, and leveraging AI in financial services [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - Hengyin Technology specializes in the research, production, and sales of financial intelligent terminals, providing comprehensive products and services to major banks [13]. - The company has developed core technologies for cash handling modules and holds numerous patents, positioning itself as a leading smart banking solution provider in China [13]. 2. Financial Performance - The company is projected to recover revenue growth in 2024, with a forecasted total revenue of 4.37 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 8.04 billion yuan by 2027 [1]. - The gross margin is expected to improve due to product structure optimization and cost control measures [16]. - The net profit is anticipated to turn positive in 2024, with a significant increase in profitability expected in the following years [16]. 3. Digital Currency and Blockchain - The digital renminbi is positioned as a transformative force in the payment landscape, with the central bank emphasizing its infrastructure development in the latest five-year plan [22]. - Blockchain technology is highlighted as a new generation of digital infrastructure, providing decentralized management and data integrity [37]. 4. Strategic Initiatives - The company has outlined a development strategy focusing on four transformations: expanding from domestic to global markets, diversifying application scenarios, enhancing product offerings, and transitioning to a service-oriented business model [41]. - Hengyin Technology aims to leverage AI and blockchain to enhance its product offerings and improve customer interactions [43][44]. 5. Valuation and Profit Forecast - The report forecasts revenue growth for Hengyin Technology, estimating revenues of 5.04 billion yuan in 2025, 6.25 billion yuan in 2026, and 8.04 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 15.3%, 24.0%, and 28.6% respectively [49]. - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of around 27.4% to 30.1% during this period [49].

Economic Outlook - The main theme for China's economy in 2025 is responding to changes, influenced by fluctuating external tariffs and internal asset revaluation, leading to unexpected volatility in wealth, supply, and investment[1] - For 2026, the focus shifts to continuity, with reduced uncertainty in macro changes and increased visibility in economic policies, emphasizing five key areas of transition[1] Key Areas of Transition - Policy continuity under the 14th Five-Year Plan, maintaining a proactive fiscal stance, with potential mid-year adjustments[1] - Supply-side focus on AI, transitioning from old to new economic drivers, with a shift in physical demand for new momentum[1] - Consumer incentives for upgrading, with ongoing subsidies and questions about the expansion of service consumption subsidies[1] - Wealth recovery through asset-liability management, with a slow bull market in stocks and a narrowing decline in real estate[1] - Price stability with improved inflation outlook, though short-term supply-demand imbalances persist, expecting CPI growth of 0.5% and PPI decline narrowing from -2.5% to -0.9%[1] Economic Growth Projections - Anticipated GDP growth for 2026 is approximately 4.9%, with consumption and export growth slightly declining compared to 2025, while investment growth is expected to rebound[1][11] - Fiscal policy is projected to remain supportive, with a deficit rate stable at around 4% and an increase in the deficit scale from CNY 5.66 trillion in 2025 to CNY 5.94 trillion in 2026[19][25] Risks and Challenges - High uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies could significantly impact China's exports and domestic economic conditions[1] - Domestic macroeconomic policy uncertainties may lead to unexpected changes, particularly in the real estate market influenced by sentiment and consensus expectations[1]

证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 何婷 执业证书：S0600524120009 证券研究报告·行业点评报告·非银金融 非银金融行业点评报告 中金公司拟换股合并东兴证券、信达证券， 资产规模将破万亿元 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 11 月 20 日 heting@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 2024/11/20 2025/3/21 2025/7/20 2025/11/18 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《金融科技 2026 年投资策略-- 短期 看市场活跃的持续性，中期关注金融 IT》 2025-11-17 《险资 Q3 核心权益资产规模大幅提 升；市场成交量环比小幅下滑》 2025-11-16 东吴证券研究所 1 / 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 在法律许可的情况下，东吴证券及其所属关联机构可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行 的证券并进行交易，还可能为这些公司提供投资银行服务或其他 ...

Macro Strategy - The report anticipates that the monetary policy in 2026 will continue to be supportive, with potential for 1-2 rate cuts and 1-2 reserve requirement ratio reductions [1][9][10] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.70%-2.0%, while the 30-year yield may range from 1.90%-2.30% [1][9] Fixed Income - The report outlines key valuation indicators for urban investment public REITs, including operational indicators like current revenue and distributable amount, valuation indicators such as expected REITs dividend rate and P/FFO multiples, liquidity indicators like daily turnover rate, and price indicators like daily price fluctuation [2][12] - Recommended REITs include Zhejiang Merchants Hu-Hang-Ning REIT and Zhongjin Anhui Traffic Control REIT in transportation infrastructure, Zhongjin Hubei Science and Technology REIT and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT in park infrastructure, and Guotai Junan City Investment Wide Court Rental Housing REIT in affordable rental housing [2][12] Industry - The 2025 Double Eleven sales totaled approximately 16,950 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2%, with comprehensive e-commerce platforms achieving 16,191 billion yuan, up 12.3% [3][14] - Instant retail showed remarkable growth, with sales reaching 670 billion yuan during Double Eleven, marking a 138% increase year-on-year [3][14] - The report suggests that the extended sales period significantly contributed to the overall growth, and highlights the importance of focusing on fast-growing sectors like pet products [3][14] Coal Industry - The coal price is expected to fluctuate in a weak equilibrium state in 2026, with a reasonable price expectation around 770 yuan/ton [4][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy security and suggests focusing on companies like Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy, which are expected to benefit from increased production and price elasticity [4][15] - High dividend logic is highlighted, with expectations that the dividend yield for China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal will decrease from around 4.5% in 2025 to approximately 3.5% by mid-2026 [4][15] Company Analysis - Xiaomi Group reported a Q3 revenue of 1131.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with a net profit of 113.1 billion yuan, up 80.9% [6][18] - The automotive segment achieved profitability for the first time, with a revenue of 290.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 199.2% increase year-on-year [6][18] - Xpeng Motors reported a Q3 revenue of 203.8 billion yuan, a 101.8% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 3.8 billion yuan, which is an improvement from the previous quarter [8][22] - Canadian Solar (CSIQ) expects Q4 sales between 13 billion to 15 billion USD, with a significant increase in storage shipments projected for 2026 [7][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 113.12 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.4% [7] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 11.31 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-on-year and 4.4% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The automotive segment turned profitable for the first time, with revenue from automotive and AI-related businesses reaching 29.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 199.2% [7] - High-end smartphone sales showed strong performance, with Q3 2025 smartphone revenue at 45.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0% [7] - The IoT segment generated revenue of 27.55 billion yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year, although it saw a quarter-on-quarter decline of 28.8% [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 270.97 billion yuan, 365.91 billion yuan, 474.58 billion yuan, 591.85 billion yuan, and 669.07 billion yuan respectively [1] - Net profit projections for the same years are 17.48 billion yuan, 23.66 billion yuan, 45.32 billion yuan, 52.96 billion yuan, and 65.61 billion yuan respectively [1] - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 45.3 billion yuan, 53.0 billion yuan, and 65.6 billion yuan, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's performance [7] Market Position - The company has expanded its automotive sales network to 402 stores and 209 service points, covering 119 and 125 cities respectively [7] - The market share for smartphones priced above 3,000 yuan in mainland China increased by 4.1 percentage points to 24.1% [7] - The report highlights the company's ongoing efforts in high-end product development, with the new Xiaomi 17 series achieving a 30% increase in sales compared to the previous generation [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company, CSIQ, has a strong order backlog and expects a doubling of energy storage shipments in 2026 [1] - The company anticipates Q4 2025 sales between $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion, with a gross margin of 14%-16% [8] - CSIQ's energy storage orders as of October 31, 2025, amount to $3.1 billion, reflecting a growth of approximately $100 million since June 30, 2025 [8] - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in energy storage shipments, projecting 14GWh-17GWh for 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 73%-115% [8] - The report indicates a slight increase in expense ratios but a significant improvement in cash flow, with operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 5.47 billion yuan, a 120.9% increase year-on-year [8] - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards to 1.5 billion yuan due to slower-than-expected global photovoltaic demand recovery, while the profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised to 3.24 billion yuan and 4.27 billion yuan, respectively [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 51.31 billion yuan - 2024: 46.17 billion yuan - 2025: 42.39 billion yuan - 2026: 50.42 billion yuan - 2027: 58.72 billion yuan [1] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 2.90 billion yuan - 2024: 2.25 billion yuan - 2025: 1.50 billion yuan - 2026: 3.24 billion yuan - 2027: 4.27 billion yuan [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023: 0.79 yuan - 2024: 0.61 yuan - 2025: 0.41 yuan - 2026: 0.88 yuan - 2027: 1.16 yuan [1]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy in 2026 is expected to maintain a supportive stance, with potential for 1-2 rate cuts corresponding to a 10-20bps reduction[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate within the range of 1.70%-2.0%, while the 30-year yield may range from 1.90%-2.30%[1] - The central bank may implement 1 trillion yuan in net purchases of government bonds, equating to a 50bps reduction in reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in terms of liquidity supply[2] Interest Rate Corridor Adjustment - The interest rate corridor is expected to narrow, with DR001 becoming the benchmark rate, guiding fluctuations around the 7-day reverse repurchase rate[2] - The new interest rate corridor may see adjustments, with a target range of 70bps for the upper and lower limits based on temporary reverse repo rates[2] Interest Rate Pricing and Spread Management - The focus will shift towards managing the interest rate spread while maintaining a reasonable interest rate relationship, particularly between loans and government bonds[3] - The average weighted interest rate for loans was 3.24% as of Q3 2025, with the after-tax yield on loans at 1.787%, closely matching the 10-year government bond yield of 1.76%[3] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected inflation due to "anti-involution" policies and the possibility of monetary policy easing if economic performance falls short of expectations[3] - The banking sector may face challenges with asset duration mismatches and unstable deposit scales, necessitating timely adjustments in monetary policy to enhance liquidity supply[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with total revenue reaching 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [8] - The automotive sales revenue was 18.05 billion yuan, up 105.3% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter, driven by the growth in new model deliveries [8] - The net loss for Q3 narrowed to 380 million yuan from 480 million yuan in Q2, with a non-GAAP net loss of 150 million yuan [8] - The overall gross margin improved to 20.1%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8] - The company is advancing its AI business across four dimensions, including smart driving, Robotaxi, robotics, and flying cars, with clear implementation timelines [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 78.5 billion, 140.2 billion, and 201.0 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 92%, 79%, and 43% respectively [8] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised to -1.4 billion, 5.4 billion, and 9.5 billion yuan [8] - The EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be -0.71, 2.81, and 4.99 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26 and 15 times for 2026 and 2027 respectively [8]

Macro Strategy - In 2026, the narrow deficit is expected to reach 5.94 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 276.5 billion yuan year-on-year, while the broad deficit is projected to be 14.54 trillion yuan, up about 167 billion yuan year-on-year, with a broad deficit rate of approximately 9.8%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points [1][13] - The total fiscal expenditure in 2026 is anticipated to be 43.54 trillion yuan, growing by 3.2% year-on-year, which is a slowdown compared to the previous year's growth rate [1][13] Foreign Trade - China's exports are expected to maintain strong resilience in 2026, with an annual growth rate of around 3%-4%, compared to an estimated 4.5%-5% in 2025 [2][14][15] - The impact of tariffs on exports is expected to ease, with the likelihood of large-scale tariff increases from the U.S. being relatively low [2][15] Industry Analysis - The 2025 Double Eleven sales event saw total e-commerce sales reach approximately 16,950 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with comprehensive e-commerce platforms accounting for 16,191 billion yuan, up 12.3% year-on-year [6] - The coal industry is projected to experience a weak equilibrium in supply and demand, leading to fluctuating coal prices in the first half of 2026, with a focus on high-dividend investment logic [7][8] Company Insights - Leap Motor's Q3 performance maintained positive profitability, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 700 million, 3.3 billion, and 6.8 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 103, 21, and 11 times [9] - Geely's Q3 results met expectations, with an upward revision of the 2025 net profit forecast to 18.1 billion yuan, while the 2026 and 2027 forecasts were adjusted downwards to 19.5 billion and 27.2 billion yuan respectively [11] - Tencent's overall performance exceeded expectations, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 255.5 billion, 285.8 billion, and 318.2 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report selects 7 core indicators from four dimensions: operation, valuation, liquidity, and transaction price, to construct a value analysis framework for public REITs products. Through the linkage analysis of these indicators, it can provide a quantitative basis for judging the investment value and price trend of urban investment public REITs [1][9][20]. - Different types of underlying assets of public REITs have structured differences in various indicators. The report classifies and compares urban investment REITs products based on the type of underlying assets, and recommends some products with good comprehensive performance for investors' attention [1][21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Urban Investment Public REITs Value Judgement Indicators 3.1.1. Operation Indicators - Current operating income reflects the operating results of the underlying assets of REITs products during the reporting period, and its stability and growth determine the sustainability of future distributable cash flows and support the reasonableness of the current valuation level [10]. - Current distributable amount represents the net cash flow available for dividends after deducting various operating expenses, interest expenses, and taxes from the net profit of the REITs project, which measures the dividend - paying ability and cash - flow safety of public REITs products [11]. 3.1.2. Valuation Indicators - Expected REITs dividend rate indicates the annual cash dividend income that investors can obtain based on the current price. A higher dividend rate means stronger cash - return ability [12]. - ChinaBond valuation yield is calculated by the ChinaBond valuation center. A higher yield may indicate that the market price of the REITs is underestimated, while a lower yield may suggest a high price or high - quality assets with low risk [14]. - P/FFO multiple measures the market price level corresponding to each unit of distributable funds. A higher multiple may mean over - valuation, while a lower one may imply undervaluation [15]. 3.1.3. Liquidity Indicator - Daily turnover rate reflects the trading activity of REITs products in the secondary market. A higher turnover rate means better liquidity, high market attention, and frequent capital inflows and outflows [16]. 3.1.4. Transaction Price Indicator - Daily price change measures the change ratio of the market price of REITs products compared with the previous trading day. A price increase reflects market recognition of the project's fundamentals or expected dividends, while a decrease may be due to valuation adjustment or liquidity contraction [17][18][19]. 3.2. Deconstruction of Allocation Value of Urban Investment Public REITs by Indicators 3.2.1. Transportation Infrastructure Category - **Operation Indicators**: As of Q3 2025, the operating income of transportation infrastructure REITs was generally stable, ranging from 1.33 - 5.35 billion yuan, and the distributable amount showed a differentiated pattern. Leading projects such as CICC Anhui Expressway REIT, Ping An Guangzhou - Heyuan Expressway REIT, and Zheshang Shanghai - Hangzhou - Ningbo Expressway REIT had leading dividend - paying abilities [23][24][25]. - **Valuation Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the overall valuation yield of transportation infrastructure REITs remained low, and the dividend rate was generally high. The P/FFO multiple ranged from 6.61 - 12.15 times, showing a trend of convergence [29][30][31]. - **Liquidity and Transaction Price Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the market liquidity of transportation infrastructure REITs was generally at a medium - low level, with a daily turnover rate ranging from 0.07% - 0.57%. The daily price change mostly remained within ±2%, and the overall price fluctuation in the secondary market had converged [36][37]. - **Recommended Targets**: Zheshang Shanghai - Hangzhou - Ningbo Expressway REIT and CICC Anhui Expressway REIT are recommended for their good comprehensive performance [44]. 3.2.2. Park Infrastructure Category - **Operation Indicators**: As of Q3 2025, the operating income of park infrastructure REITs was generally low, ranging from 0.19 - 0.26 billion yuan, and the distributable amount was also at a low level, lacking growth momentum [49][50]. - **Valuation Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the overall dividend rate of park infrastructure REITs slightly rebounded, ranging from 4.35% - 7.46%. The valuation yield ranged from 1.13% - 8.00%, and the P/FFO multiple ranged from 17.88 - 24.09 times, with a high valuation center [54][55][59]. - **Liquidity and Transaction Price Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the secondary - market liquidity of park infrastructure REITs showed a differentiated trend, with a daily turnover rate ranging from 0.10% - 4.57%. The daily price change was between - 5.47% and - 0.08%, and the price adjustment amplitude was relatively large in the short term [66][67]. - **Recommended Targets**: CICC Hubei KeTou Optics Valley REIT and E Fund Guangzhou Development Industrial Park REIT are recommended for their good comprehensive performance [74]. 3.2.3. Affordable Rental Housing Category - **Operation Indicators**: As of Q3 2025, the operating income and distributable amount of affordable rental housing REITs showed a similar differentiated pattern. Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT ranked first in both indicators, and China Asset Management Beijing Affordable Housing REIT had a strong growth momentum [77]. - **Valuation Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the expected dividend rate of Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT was 3.32%, higher than other similar products. The valuation yield of Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT was 4.61%, the highest among similar products. The P/FFO multiple of China Asset Management Beijing Affordable Housing REIT was as high as 53.37 times, while that of Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT was 30.17 times, relatively undervalued [83][85]. - **Liquidity and Transaction Price Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the daily turnover rate of CICC Xiamen Affordable Housing REIT was 1.48%, ranking first in the same category. The price of Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT and CICC Xiamen Affordable Housing REIT was relatively stable, while the daily price change of China Asset Management Beijing Affordable Housing REIT was - 0.98%, but the price fluctuation was still controllable [91]. - **Recommended Targets**: Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT and CICC Xiamen Affordable Housing REIT are recommended for their good comprehensive performance [1]. 3.2.4. Energy Infrastructure Category - Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT has been listed for a short time, and there was a valuation premium at the initial stage of listing. All indicators are still in the process of adjustment and approaching those of other public REITs products. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the operating capacity of its underlying assets. If the operating income and distributable amount improve simultaneously, it is suitable for allocation - type funds to pay attention [1]. 3.2.5. Water Conservancy Facilities Category - Yin Hua Shaoxing Raw Water Water Conservancy REIT has advantages in operation and expected dividend rate indicators, and performs well in liquidity and price - fluctuation indicators. It is recommended that allocation - type funds pay attention, while the cost - performance for trading - type funds is average [1]. 3.2.6. Municipal Facilities Category - Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT's performance in valuation, liquidity, and price - fluctuation indicators is similar to that of other urban investment public REITs products. Since it has been listed for a short time, it is necessary to observe whether the operating data in the fourth quarter of 2025 can support the long - term dividend - paying ability of its underlying assets [3]. 3.2.7. Warehouse Logistics Category - Hua An Waigaoqiao REIT has a stable operating foundation, strong cash - flow generation ability, high dividend - return expectations, and good liquidity. However, due to its high valuation and large price - fluctuation range, it is recommended that trading - type funds wait for the valuation adjustment stage to seek capital gains, while allocation - type funds can pay attention and obtain medium - and long - term dividend income [1].