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福达股份(603166):25Q3业绩高增延续,拟与长坂设立合资子公司
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-26 13:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 4.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.90% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1-Q3 2025 was 2.21 billion yuan, reflecting an 83.27% year-on-year growth [7] - The company is establishing a joint venture with Changban Technology to enhance business collaboration [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, total revenue is projected at 1,352 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.18% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is estimated at 103.53 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 57.85% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A is expected to be 0.16 yuan [1] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to grow to 2,434 million yuan in 2025E, representing a 47.75% increase year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 301.29 million yuan in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth of 62.61% [1] - EPS is projected to be 0.47 yuan in 2025E [1] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 34.34 for 2025E [1] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 10,345.80 million yuan [5] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 4.05 [5]
周观:政策扰动期,债市且战且退(2025年第41期)
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-26 13:38
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current probability of further interest rate cuts is low, and even if a cut occurs, its downward push on interest rates will be limited. It is recommended to approach the bond market with a volatile mindset and be cautious about chasing up [1][16][17] - After the release of inflation data lower than market expectations, the market generally believes that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates next week. However, inflation risks are rising, and the market has overlooked the possibility of an inflation rebound [4][19][26] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Viewpoints Q1: Impact of "double - cut" expectations on the bond market - This week (2025.10.20 - 2025.10.24), the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond rose 3.5bp from 1.745% last Friday to 1.78% [1][12] - Throughout the week, the bond market traded around trade - war news and expectations of further monetary policy easing. The trade - war was highly affected by external factors, while the expectation of monetary policy easing was triggered by news of small and medium - sized banks lowering deposit rates and weak economic data [16] Q2: Future changes in US Treasury yields after the release of a series of US economic data - This week (10.20 - 10.24), the short - and long - term US Treasury yields slightly recovered from the previous downward trend. US stocks rose, and the gold price dropped significantly. The overseas market's risk - aversion sentiment declined marginally [2][19] - In September, the US CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, falling short of market expectations across the board. The US Markit PMI in October reached the second - highest level this year, exceeding expectations. The September CPI data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the market expects two more cuts this year [4][19][22] 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - From 2025/10/20 to 2025/10/24, the total net injection in the open - market operations was 781 billion yuan [30] 2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - The total transaction area of commercial housing generally increased. Steel prices showed mixed trends, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices all rose [56][58] - Compared with half a month ago, both short - and long - term US Treasury yields declined. The term spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds decreased, while that between the 10 - year and 3 - month US Treasury bonds increased [75][76][79] 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 79 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 247.228 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 80.51 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 165.751 billion yuan. The main investment directions were comprehensive, urban and rural infrastructure construction, and shantytown renovation [86] 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the stock of local government bonds was 53.64 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 33.994 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.63%. The top three provinces with the most actively traded local government bonds were Guizhou, Guangdong, and Shandong [102] 3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - No detailed content provided other than the plan exists 4. One - Week Review of Credit Bonds 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 527 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance of 468.291 billion yuan, a total repayment of 335.832 billion yuan, and a net financing of 132.459 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.204 billion yuan compared with last week [107] 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds decreased by 0.73bp, medium - term notes increased by 3.91bp, enterprise bonds increased by 47.45bp, and corporate bonds decreased by 7.76bp [119] 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - This week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 360.658 billion yuan [120] 4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all decreased [123][124][126] 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes narrowed comprehensively, those of enterprise bonds generally narrowed, and those of urban investment bonds narrowed comprehensively [128][132][134] 4.6 Rating Spreads - The rating spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally narrowed, those of enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, and those of urban investment bonds generally narrowed [136][139][144] 4.7 Trading Activity - This week, the top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type are listed in the report, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, reaching 226.81 billion yuan [149][150] 4.8 Issuer Credit Rating Changes - There were no bonds with upgraded ratings or outlooks this week [151]
海外周报20251026:美国CPI势弱,联储10月降息几无悬念-20251026
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-26 12:32
Inflation Data - September US CPI was below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of +0.3% compared to the expected +0.4%[1] - Core CPI also underperformed, rising +0.2% month-on-month against an expectation of +0.3%[1] - Year-on-year CPI increased by 3.0%, slightly below the expected 3.1%[1] Housing Inflation - The Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) component saw a significant drop from +0.38% to +0.13%, marking a new low since the pandemic[1] - Housing inflation's contribution to overall CPI was notably affected by this OER decline, which has a high weight of 26% in the CPI calculation[1] Market Trends - Major global stock indices rose due to better-than-expected corporate earnings and easing trade risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing by 1.9% and 2.3% respectively[1] - Gold prices fell sharply by over 5% due to profit-taking from previous highs, while WTI crude oil surged by 6.9% to $61.5 per barrel[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December meetings, with the policy rate likely dropping to 3.75% by year-end[2] - The market is increasingly betting on consecutive rate cuts due to tightening liquidity conditions and ongoing regional bank risks[1] Economic Growth Projections - Analysts have revised the Q3 2025 US GDP growth forecast upwards to 2.8%, while slightly downgrading Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 projections[2] - The consensus for PCE year-on-year growth has been adjusted downwards, with Q3 2025 now expected at 2.7%[2] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected policy shifts from Trump, excessive rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]
精锻科技(300258):25Q3业绩同环比提升显著,拟增资泰国工厂扩产
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-26 12:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved significant improvements in Q3 2025 performance, with revenue of 5.05 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.73% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.43%. The net profit for Q3 was 310 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 38.94% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 53.25% [7] - The company plans to increase investment in its Thailand factory by 250 million yuan to expand production capacity for new energy vehicles and engineering machinery gear shafts. Additionally, it intends to establish a subsidiary in Morocco with an initial investment of up to 700 million yuan to serve markets in Africa, Europe, and the United States [7] - The company has established a global layout with operations in Singapore, Thailand, Morocco, Japan, and France, positioning itself as a global precision gear supplier [7] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.89 billion yuan, 2.37 billion yuan, and 2.98 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 43, 34, and 27 [7] Financial Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1.492 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.67%, and a net profit of 92 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.85% [7] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 22.33%, with a net profit margin of 6.20%, reflecting improvements in cost management [7] - The company’s total assets are projected to be 7.092 billion yuan in 2024, with a total liability of 3.290 billion yuan, indicating a healthy balance sheet [8]
非银金融行业跟踪周报:业绩高增长或将驱动保险、券商股估值修复-20251026
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-26 11:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Views - The insurance and brokerage stocks are expected to see valuation recovery driven by high earnings growth [1] - The non-bank financial sector has shown a mixed performance, with insurance leading in growth, followed by diversified finance and securities [8][9] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Subsector Performance - In the recent five trading days (October 20-24, 2025), all non-bank financial subsectors underperformed the CSI 300 index, with insurance up by 2.99%, diversified finance by 2.70%, and securities by 2.02% [8] - Year-to-date performance shows insurance leading with a 14.47% increase, followed by diversified finance at 12.38%, and brokerage at 7.73% [9] Non-Bank Financial Subsector Insights Securities - Trading volume has increased year-on-year, with October's average daily stock trading volume at CNY 25,070 billion, up 12.07% from last year [13] - Margin financing balance reached CNY 24,510 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.76% [13] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is projected at 1.3x for 2025 [23] Insurance - Major insurers like China Life and New China Life are expected to report significant profit increases for Q3, with China Life's net profit projected between CNY 156.8 billion and CNY 177.7 billion, reflecting a 50%-70% year-on-year growth [25] - The insurance sector is benefiting from regulatory support for high-quality health insurance development [31] Diversified Finance - The trust industry is experiencing a stable transition, with total trust assets expected to reach CNY 29.56 trillion by the end of 2024, a 23.58% year-on-year increase [34] - The futures market saw a trading volume of 770 million contracts in September, with a transaction value of CNY 71.50 trillion, reflecting a 33.16% year-on-year growth [38] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The non-bank financial sector is currently undervalued, presenting a safety margin for investors [34] - The recommended ranking for investment is insurance > securities > diversified finance, with key companies including China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, and Tonghuashun [34]
宏观量化经济指数周报20251026:四季度供需分化格局仍将对物价造成影响-20251026
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-26 11:05
Supply and Demand Analysis - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.02%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.91%[6] - For October, the supply index is at 50.00%, down 0.03 percentage points from September, indicating a stronger supply side compared to demand[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.90%, unchanged from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.73%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] Economic Indicators - The average wholesale price of pork has decreased by 27.1% year-on-year as of October 24, maintaining a similar decline as in September[7] - The export index for October shows a slight decline but remains resilient, with the cumulative cargo throughput at ports showing a slowdown compared to September[7] - The ELI index is at -0.66%, down 0.06 percentage points from last week, indicating liquidity pressure as the month-end tax period approaches[11] Consumer and Investment Trends - New energy vehicle retail sales are showing marginal recovery, driven by tax incentives set to reduce in 2026[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars recorded 63,163 units in the week ending October 19, a slight increase from the previous year[23] - Infrastructure investment shows stability, with the asphalt plant operating rate at 35.80%, up 1.30 percentage points from the previous week[29] Price and Inflation Outlook - The Brent crude oil futures price is at $63.37 per barrel, up $1.38 from the previous week, while COMEX gold futures are at $4,163.46 per ounce, down $39.72[41] - The average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables is at 5.22 yuan per kilogram, up 0.21 yuan from the previous week[41]
电子行业跟踪周报:三季度AI业绩持续兑现,Mid-trAIning开启结构化智能新阶段-20251026
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-26 09:38
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The AI industry continues to show strong performance in Q3, with Mid-Training marking a new phase in structured intelligence [1] - Companies in the AI supply chain have reported robust earnings, contributing to a positive market sentiment [2] - The demand for AI infrastructure is increasing, as evidenced by Amphenol and Vertiv exceeding revenue guidance for Q3 [2][4] - The PCB sector, represented by Shengyi Technology, has shown significant growth, indicating a sustained upward trend in AI PCB demand [10] Summary by Sections AI Performance and Market Sentiment - Q3 AI performance has been strong, with notable stock price increases among key players in the AI supply chain [1] - Companies like Shengyi Electronics reported a revenue increase of 153% year-on-year, reflecting the rising value of PCB in the AI computing cycle [10] Company Earnings and Projections - Amphenol's Q3 revenue reached $6.194 billion, a 53.35% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand in AI servers and high-performance connectors [4] - Vertiv's Q3 revenue was $2.676 billion, up 60% year-on-year, with a robust order backlog supporting future growth [8][9] Mid-Training and AI Training Paradigms - Mid-Training is emerging as a critical phase in AI training, focusing on capital efficiency and quality-driven model improvements [3][12] - This new paradigm shifts the focus from merely increasing computational power to optimizing data quality and model performance [17][18] Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The demand for high-quality AI servers and related materials is expected to grow, with significant implications for the PCB and copper connection sectors [2][10] - The trend towards high-power AI server cabinets is driving demand for advanced materials, benefiting companies with technological advantages [2][10]
医药生物行业跟踪周报:2025ESMO中国之声闪耀全球,PD1双抗与ADC成为全球焦点-20251026
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-26 09:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the 2025 ESMO conference showcased significant advancements from Chinese innovative drug companies, marking a shift from being followers to leaders in the global market [19][22]. - The A-share pharmaceutical index has shown a year-to-date increase of 19.54%, with a weekly increase of 0.58%, while the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index has surged by 81.15% year-to-date [9]. - Key sub-sectors showing positive performance include medical services (+3.94%), pharmaceutical commerce (+2.27%), and medical devices (+0.89%), while chemical pharmaceuticals and traditional Chinese medicine experienced declines [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report notes that the Chinese pharmaceutical sector is entering a harvest period, with a significant increase in the number and quality of research presented at the ESMO conference [16][19]. - The report emphasizes the successful approval of innovative drugs, such as Boehringer Ingelheim's treatment for pulmonary fibrosis and Novartis' drug for polymyalgia rheumatica, which have achieved significant clinical milestones [4]. Research and Development Progress - The report details several groundbreaking studies that have the potential to change existing treatment paradigms, including studies on innovative drugs and ADCs (antibody-drug conjugates) [4][22]. - Specific companies are highlighted for their promising research pipelines, including Innovent Biologics, Rongchang Biologics, and others, which have made significant contributions to the field [12][22]. Market Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of stock performance within the pharmaceutical sector, noting that certain stocks, such as Teva Pharmaceutical and ST Rong Control, have seen significant weekly gains [9][11]. - The report suggests a ranking of favored sub-sectors for investment, with innovative drugs, research services, and CXO services at the top of the list [10][12]. Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment based on their performance and potential, including Hengrui Medicine, WuXi AppTec, and others across various sub-sectors [11][12].
中集车辆(301039):业绩承压,北美市场持续磨底
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-26 08:17
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure, particularly in the North American market, which continues to struggle [1] - The company has seen a decline in revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 due to the unstable recovery of the North American semi-trailer market [1] - Despite current challenges, the company is expected to maintain high dividends in 2025 and is positioned for a potential recovery in 2026 [1] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 25,087 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6.21% - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2,455.67 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 119.66% - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 1.31 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.28 [1] Quarterly Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 5.26 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6% - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 219 million RMB, showing a year-on-year decrease of 21.7% [8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 15.5%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [8] Market and Regional Insights - The company produced 82,000 semi-trailers in the first three quarters of 2025, generating revenue of 10.69 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 16.8% - In China, the company saw a 16.5% year-on-year increase in semi-trailer and liquid tank truck sales, with a market share of 23.07% [8] - The North American market remains weak, with a 20.1% year-on-year decline in semi-trailer production [8] Future Earnings Forecast - The company's earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 925.12 million RMB and 1,339.20 million RMB, respectively - The projected EPS for 2025 is 0.49 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 19.33 [1]
基础化工周报:尿素价格偏弱运行-20251026
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-26 08:15
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI in the polyurethane sector this week were 18,200 yuan/ton, 14,286 yuan/ton, and 13,449 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +286 yuan/ton, -207 yuan/ton, and +134 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits were 5,099 yuan/ton, 2,184 yuan/ton, and 2,211 yuan/ton, with week-on-week changes of +383 yuan/ton, -110 yuan/ton, and +105 yuan/ton [2]. - In the oil, gas, and olefin sector, the average prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha this week were 1,364 yuan/ton, 3,777 yuan/ton, 531 yuan/ton, and 3,937 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +21 yuan/ton, +15 yuan/ton, +16 yuan/ton, and -0 yuan/ton. The average price of polyethylene was 7,441 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 78 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 892 yuan/ton, 1,593 yuan/ton, and 15 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -56 yuan/ton, -96 yuan/ton, and -51 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 6,680 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were 16 yuan/ton, 1,289 yuan/ton, and -113 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -86 yuan/ton, -122 yuan/ton, and -78 yuan/ton [2]. - In the coal chemical sector, the average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid this week were 2,154 yuan/ton, 1,596 yuan/ton, 3,907 yuan/ton, and 2,410 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -21 yuan/ton, -0 yuan/ton, -21 yuan/ton, and -19 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits were 140 yuan/ton, -83 yuan/ton, -168 yuan/ton, and 154 yuan/ton, with week-on-week changes of -55 yuan/ton, -14 yuan/ton, +25 yuan/ton, and -6 yuan/ton [2]. - The chemical blue-chip companies mentioned in the report are Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, New Hope Liuhe, and Adisseo [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking**: The basic chemical index had a week-on-week increase of 2.1%, a month-on-month increase of 1.8%, a three-month increase of 7.8%, a one-year increase of 21.9%, and a year-to-date increase of 23.0% as of October 24, 2025. Among the related companies, Baofeng Energy had a week-on-week increase of 7.0%, a month-on-month increase of 8.6%, a three-month increase of 11.8%, a one-year increase of 15.9%, and a year-to-date increase of 12.1%. Satellite Chemical had a week-on-week increase of 2.8%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.7%, a three-month decrease of 0.3%, a one-year increase of 0.3%, and a year-to-date increase of 0.0%. Hualu Hengsheng had a week-on-week increase of 0.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.8%, a three-month increase of 3.1%, a one-year increase of 6.0%, and a year-to-date increase of 16.6%. New Hope Liuhe had a week-on-week increase of 0.3%, a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, a three-month increase of 5.5%, a one-year decrease of 1.0%, and a year-to-date increase of 10.0%. Wanhua Chemical had a week-on-week decrease of 0.1%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.0%, a three-month decrease of 0.6%, a one-year decrease of 21.5%, and a year-to-date decrease of 12.7% [8][10]. - **Related Company Profit Tracking**: As of the closing price on October 24, 2025, the total market capitalization of Wanhua Chemical was 192.4 billion yuan, with net profits attributable to the parent company of 13 billion yuan in 2024A, 13.5 billion yuan in 2025E, 16.5 billion yuan in 2026E, and 19 billion yuan in 2027E. Baofeng Energy had a total market capitalization of 132.7 billion yuan, with net profits attributable to the parent company of 6.3 billion yuan in 2024A, 12.4 billion yuan in 2025E, 14.1 billion yuan in 2026E, and 14.9 billion yuan in 2027E. Satellite Chemical had a total market capitalization of 61.4 billion yuan, with net profits attributable to the parent company of 6.1 billion yuan in 2024A, 6.6 billion yuan in 2025E, 8 billion yuan in 2026E, and 9.8 billion yuan in 2027E. Hualu Hengsheng had a total market capitalization of 52.8 billion yuan, with net profits attributable to the parent company of 3.9 billion yuan in 2024A, 4.3 billion yuan in 2025E, 4.7 billion yuan in 2026E, and 5.1 billion yuan in 2027E. New Hope Liuhe had a total market capitalization of 71.4 billion yuan, with net profits attributable to the parent company of 5.9 billion yuan in 2024A, 6 billion yuan in 2025E, 6.9 billion yuan in 2026E, and 7.3 billion yuan in 2027E. Adisseo had a total market capitalization of 25.4 billion yuan, with net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.2 billion yuan in 2024A, 1.6 billion yuan in 2025E, 1.7 billion yuan in 2026E, and 2.1 billion yuan in 2027E [8][10]. - **Polyurethane Industry Chain**: The average price of pure MDI this week was 18,200 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 286 yuan/ton and a seven-year quantile of 25%. Its gross profit was 5,099 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 383 yuan/ton and a seven-year quantile of 73%. The average price of polymer MDI was 14,286 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 207 yuan/ton and a seven-year quantile of 21%. Its gross profit was 2,184 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 110 yuan/ton and a seven-year quantile of 45%. The average price of TDI was 13,449 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 134 yuan/ton and a seven-year quantile of 31%. Its gross profit was 2,211 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 105 yuan/ton and a seven-year quantile of 67% [8][10]. - **Oil, Gas, and Olefin Industry Chain**: - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of ethane this week was 26 cents/gallon (1,364 yuan/ton), with a week-on-week increase of 0.41 cents/gallon (21 yuan/ton) and a ten-year quantile of 63% (74%). The average price of propane was 532 dollars/ton (3,777 yuan/ton), with a week-on-week increase of 2 dollars/ton (15 yuan/ton) and a ten-year quantile of 45% (51%). The average price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.4 dollars/mmbtu (1,252 yuan/ton), with a week-on-week increase of 0.38 dollars/mmbtu (138 yuan/ton) and a ten-year quantile of 78% (79%). The average price of Brent crude oil was 63 dollars/barrel (3,282 yuan/ton), with a week-on-week increase of 1 dollar/barrel (69 yuan/ton) and a ten-year quantile of 41% (49%). The average price of naphtha was 555 dollars/ton (3,937 yuan/ton), with a week-on-week change of -0 dollars/ton (-0 yuan/ton) and a ten-year quantile of 43% (52%). The average price of steam coal was 531 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 16 yuan/ton and a ten-year quantile of 61%. The average price of methanol was 2,276 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 29 yuan/ton and a ten-year quantile of 26% [8][10]. - **Profit Comparison of Oil, Gas, and Coal Routes**: For polyethylene production, the profit of ethane cracking was 892 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 475 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 907 yuan/ton year-on-year. The profit of naphtha cracking was 15 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 60 yuan/ton year-on-year. The profit of MTO was -77 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 320 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and an increase of 320 yuan/ton year-on-year. The profit of CTO was 1,593 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 96 yuan/ton, an increase of 392 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 265 yuan/ton year-on-year. For polypropylene production, the profit of PDH was 16 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 332 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and an increase of 401 yuan/ton year-on-year. The profit of naphtha cracking was -113 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 78 yuan/ton, a decrease of 254 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and an increase of 338 yuan/ton year-on-year. The profit of MTO was -381 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 106 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 93 yuan/ton year-on-year. The profit of CTO was 1,289 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 122 yuan/ton, an increase of 177 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 84 yuan/ton year-on-year [8][10]. 2. Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trend**: No specific content provided - **2.2 Polyurethane Sector**: Analyzed the price trends and price - spread relationships of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI [17][20] - **2.3 Oil, Gas, and Olefin Sector**: Analyzed the price trends of domestic steam coal, naphtha, crude oil, propane, ethane, and natural gas, as well as the profitability of different routes for producing polyethylene and polypropylene [24][25][33] - **2.4 Coal Chemical Sector**: Analyzed the price trends and gross profit situations of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, acetic acid, coke, methanol, and other products [40][45][50] - **2.5 Animal Nutrition Sector**: Analyzed the price trends of solid and liquid methionine, VA, and VE [62][66][68]